The Math Is In: Why the US Has Already Lost Two Wars /Lt Col Daniel Davis
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive – August 13, 2026
Sputnik – 18.08.2026
The MIC intends to “milk” “older and sometimes antiquated systems for as much profit as possible before a real paradigm shift towards actual 21st century defense strategy evolves – and will fight this evolution as long as they can,” former DoD analyst and Air Force Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski told Sputnik.
That was her response to the US military’s massive new $84.5B shopping spree for Patriot, THAAD and Tomahawk missiles.
“The MIC is in reaction mode, as is the Trump administration, trying to rapidly deal with an unexpected loss to Iran which has wiped out CENTCOM’s basing infrastructure, alongside an unexpected massive shortfall of [munition] consumables for scalable, combat and defense operations.”
“Slow by design” in fielding “weapons of any kind,” especially munitions which are “much less profitable” than contracts for the nuclear triad and carrier power projection, the munitions sector has become “kind of an economic backwater,” hence the sluggish production and limited scalability.
The new seven-year contracts for Patriots and THAADs are designed “to capture revenue, not win wars,” Kwiatkowski argues, as the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have shown that “these defense systems have proven overly expensive and incapable of defending against mass launches of cheap drones, or modern hypersonic missiles.”
Kwiatkowski predicts that the Pentagon and MIC will continue to spend money the US doesn’t have on “20th century tech, with the minor exception of off-the-shelf and modified drones and the AI to operate them,” until a “reckoning” forces a “complete paradigm change,” associated “with a new national defense strategy and abandonment of imperial aspirations.”
Unfortunately, the “dramatic” loss in Iran won’t be enough for that to happen, she believes. “It is a wake-up call. But our political system and military lobbies, as well as the Israel lobby which sees the US as a vassal industrial state for its own defense, are not oriented for strategy shifts or even modification.”
For now, the reality is that the MIC controls strategies and encourages “imperial war for short-term profit, and expensive never-ending contracts.”
Glenn Diesen | August 17, 2026
David N. Gibbs is a professor of history at the University of Arizona.
Debate on the CIA and academia: David Gibbs and Robert Jervis
Article in the Los Angeles Times on the CIA-academic nexus: https://irp.fas.org/news/2001/01/lat012801.html
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RT | August 17, 2026
Latvia wants Brussels to provide billions in additional funding as lost trade with Russia and soaring military spending put growing pressure on the Baltic state’s finances, Politico reported on Monday.
Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs told the outlet that he has asked Brussels to provide €7 billion ($8.2 billion) under the EU’s next seven-year budget, on top of other funding already earmarked for Latvia.
The sum would cover almost half of Riga’s projected €15.1 billion ($17.3 billion) military spending bill for 2028-2034.
Kulbergs said that Latvia is taking on debt to finance what its government views as security spending benefiting the rest of Europe. “We are getting our budget deficit to the maximum,” he told Politico, saying Latvia is borrowing to pay for “the defense of the whole of Europe.”
Latvia has been one of the EU’s strongest advocates of sanctions on Russia and has steadily dismantled trade, transport and energy links with its eastern neighbor since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022.
The policies, however, have led to a significant economic decline across the region. Politico reported last year that cross-border trade with Russia had “largely collapsed” across the Baltic states, while tourism and investment had also declined, prompting Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to seek additional financial aid from Brussels.
The costs of Riga’s anti-Russian policies have since become a major campaign issue ahead of Latvia’s October 3 parliamentary election. Opposition politician Ainars Slesers has insisted that Riga should demand compensation in return for backing further EU sanctions.
“We are losing money … we are talking about how to support Ukraine, but we are a victim,” he told Politico, adding that economic ties with Russia should eventually be restored.
Despite seeking billions from Brussels to offset the fallout, Kulbergs has called for even tougher measures against Moscow, including a total EU visa ban for Russian citizens and renewed attempts to use frozen Russian sovereign assets for Ukraine.
Russia has long argued that the Baltic states have devastated their own economies by dismantling previously profitable ties while sharply increasing military spending over what their governments describe as a potential threat from Russia.
Moscow has repeatedly denied having plans to attack the Baltic states or other NATO members, dismissing such claims as “nonsense” and Russophobic fearmongering intended to justify inflated military budgets to taxpayers, while warning that European nations are preparing for a full-scale war against Russia.
RT | August 16, 2026
The US is looking to Russia’s air defense technology as it develops a new generation of mobile radars following losses suffered during the war with Iran, Military Watch has reported. New THAAD radars are reportedly set to gain a mobile sensor platform function similar to those built into Russia’s S-300 and S-400 systems from the outset.
According to a report published earlier this week, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) destroyed more than $3 billion worth of American air defense radars during the first week of the war on the Islamic Republic launched by Israel and the US in late February.
The losses reportedly included lower-value radars such as the AN/TPS-59, valued at around $70 million, as well as an AN/FPS-132 radar and two AN/TPY-2 X-band mobile radar systems from the THAAD anti-ballistic missile system, each valued at more than $1 billion. The destruction of the radars dealt a major blow to the situational awareness of US forces and their allies, the military-focused magazine noted.
The reported approach would potentially move away from the traditional Western concept of a self-contained air defense battery, according to the report. Instead, radars would serve as nodes in broader networks, allowing a mobile sensor to detect a target and relay data to remote launchers while remaining physically separate from the interceptors, the magazine noted.
The concept is reportedly in line with Russia’s networked air defense architecture and with the US Integrated Air and Missile Defense Battle Command System (IBCS), which is designed to connect different sensors and weapons.
According to Military Watch, the destruction of the radars reportedly forced the US and Israel to rely more heavily on ship-based sensors and an AN/TPY-2 radar stationed in Turkey.
Earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iranian strikes had caused up to $13 billion in damage to US military assets and facilities in the Middle East. Since the start of the US-Israeli war on the Islamic Republic, Tehran has carried out more than 2,000 air, missile, and drone strikes, damaging at least 20 sites in eight countries used by the US military. Iran has also damaged or destroyed more than 42 US military aircraft, several while parked at air bases.
By Kevin Barrett | August 16, 2026
Trump wants to make a deal with Iran. That’s why he murdered the current Supreme Leader’s father, along with 168 schoolgirls at Minab and hundreds of other civilians.
Trump’s attempts to make a deal with Iran include: threats of total annihilation, claims that he has already won, obscene Easter outbursts (“Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah!” ), unilaterally declaring possession of the “Strait of Trump,” and vacillating between outraged tirades about how Iran will never have a nuclear weapon and deprecations of the “nuclear dust” that is so far underground it isn’t very important, anyway.
Does Trump think his arrogant scorn for the men and women he’s sent off on a deadly fool’s errand will somehow enhance his negotiating position? Does he imagine that telling the crew members of the USS Abraham Lincoln that after eight months at sea with extremely poor logistical support, “they haven’t been out there nearly long enough” will somehow win concessions from Iran’s Supreme Leader?
Is there some method to Trump’s apparent madness—some multidimensional-chess-style negotiating strategy? To find out, we turn to Trump’s magnum opus, The Art of the Deal. According the real author, Tony Schwartz, Trump didn’t write a single word of that book, and probably didn’t even read much of it. Schwartz says Trump spent a couple of hours with his (Schwartz’s) book, made a few minor marks, and falsely claimed authorship.
Schwartz says Trump’s attention span is so microscopic that it was impossible to do meaningful interviews. So he shadowed Trump for 18 months, embellished and mythologized Trump’s activities and purported methods, and wound up “putting lipstick on a pig.”
AI is mostly a curse, but it’s useful for pulling up the main points of a book one would never dream of buying or reading. According to AI summaries The Art of the Deal advocates various dealmaking strategies that may or may not relate to Trump’s attempts to come to terms with Iran, including:
*“Think big.” Trump says he plans to steal all of Iran’s oil and unilaterally incorporate the Strait of Hormuz into the United States, renaming it “The Strait of Trump.” I guess that counts as thinking big—in the same way the asylum inmate who insists he’s Napoleon is thinking big.
*“Go with your gut feeling, don’t listen to the experts.” When Netanyahu and his Mossad chief visited Trump and advocated attacking Iran, and all of Trump’s advisors except Hegseth were against it, Trump went with his gut feeling… which was, we surmise, that if he didn’t do what Netanyahu ordered, video evidence of Trump raping underage girls might be made public.
*“Always deal from a position of strength.” Trump has been so hilariously unconvincing in his pretensions to be dealing from a position of strength— “we’ve wiped out their entire military,” “we have total control over the Strait,” “our regime change succeeded,” “we’ve completely obliterated their nuclear sites,” “their economy has completely collapsed”—that he has indeed developed a very strong position… as a comedian specializing in self-parody.
*“Maximize your options.” Trump’s supposed strategy of never getting locked into a single deal or path, but instead developing all sorts of fallback options, obviously isn’t working as intended: Trump has exactly ZERO options except surrender. So he parodies the “maximize your options” strategy by being wildly inconsistent and incoherent, saying one thing one minute and its opposite five minutes later. Today, we’re going to invade and occupy them and steal their oil; tomorrow, we’re going to nuke them back to the Stone Age; and the day after tomorrow, we’ll just walk away because, contrary to appearances, we’ve already won. In other words, “maximize your options” has become “maximize your bullshit.”
*“Get the word out.” AI summaries say The Art of the Deal advocates “using publicity and sensational storytelling strategically to capture attention and influence public perception.” Trump is certainly succeeding at grabbing public attention through publicity and sensational storytelling about his misbegotten war on Iran. Unfortunately for him, he is grabbing negative public attention by making a complete ass of himself. “Strategic” doesn’t describe his attention-grabbing incoherence, rage, and obscenity—nor his capturing the world’s imagination, and making it collapse in unbelieving laughter, by sneaking out of Air Force One in a food cart while sending staff and journalists into the sky as bait for purported Iranian missiles. A stunningly brilliant publicity stunt, that… for Iran.
*“Deliver the goods: Back up bold claims with real results.” This, of course, is where Trump most obviously falls flat. The gaping abyss between what comes out of Trump’s unhinged mouth and discernible reality is so vast that one can only marvel at the sheer chutzpah that enables him to emit such preposterously vacuous noises.
In reality, it is Iran’s leadership that is giving a master class in the art of the deal.
*Iran is thinking big. Iran is not just trying to win by surviving, as the North Koreans and North Vietnamese and Taliban did. Instead, it is envisaging a radically different future in which the US fully withdraws from West Asia, concedes Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, returns Iran’s stolen money that it has been holding for 47 years, ends all sanctions, concedes Iran’s full NPT-enshrined rights to civilian nuclear activity, and pressures “Israel” into permanently ending its genocidal war against its neighbors including Lebanon and Palestine.
*Iran is not listening to the Western establishment “experts.” Instead, Iran relies on its own expertise and know-how. That’s why the Western experts, who thought the US 100-to-1 military spending advantage was insurmountable, got a rude awakening. Iranian leaders have long understood that an impregnable missile-and-drone force could beat a much larger traditional army and navy, and they’ve been planning for that contingency for decades. What’s more, instead of the “gut feelings” that Trump advocates, Iran listens to the inner voice of faith, cultivating and seeking Divine guidance and inspiration.
*Iran is dealing from a position of strength. As John Mearsheimer and other experts noted, Iran essentially won the war within the first 72 hours. That victory has gotten more crushing with every passing day. The US has exhausted its munitions, while Iran just keeps manufacturing more new rockets and drones than it fires. Iran’s assets are protected, buried deep underground, often beneath mountains, while US assets are vulnerable. Iran’s long range rockets and drones would enable it to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed even if the US somehow managed to occupy the whole Iranian shoreline of the Persian Gulf, a feat that might require as many as a million troops and casualties in the tens if not hundreds of thousands. Iran can match any attack on its civilian infrastructure with equal or greater attacks on the infrastructure of US allies. And Iran’s population is united behind its leadership and demands an even more militant stance than the leadership is pursuing, whereas the American people never supported “Trump’s Excellent Iran Adventure” even before its calamitous failure was obvious.
*Iran has all kinds of options. Iran can tighten the squeeze on the global economy to whatever degree it chooses, by calibrating the amount of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz (and, through its AnsarUllah allies, the Bab al-Mandab) and deciding who passes and who doesn’t. It can offer carrots and sticks to regional and global powers. It can get help from Russia and China to whatever degree necessary. It can use land routes, Pakistan-shore routes, and Caspian Sea routes to evade Trump’s highly permeable “wall of steel” blockade. It doesn’t need nukes since it’s got Hormuz, and can therefore use its nuclear capability as leverage, relinquishing any prospective nuclear weapons program in return for concessions. But barring such a deal, thanks to its highly-enriched uranium, it could, if attacked with a nuclear weapon, rapidly build its own nuclear weapons and retaliate (or buy some from North Korea or Pakistan, as Pépé Escobar says they already have).
*Iran is getting the word out with sensational storytelling. Iran can’t take credit for Trump’s catering truck escapade, but they are taking advantage of it with their trademarked LEGO videos that have captured the imagination of the world. Iran has successfully (and accurately) cast itself as the “lovable underdog” handing an obnoxious bully (Trump) his just desserts.
*“Iran is delivering the goods, backing up its bold claims with real results. Unlike Trump, Iran hypes its real accomplishments: Trump claims the Strait is under his control and open for business; Iran slams a drone into one of the very few ships dumb enough to take Trump’s word. Trump claims Iran’s military is “totally obliterated”; Iran points to satellite photos showing that it is the US bases in the region that have been totally obliterated. Trump claims a downed airman has been heroically rescued; Iran releases photos and eyewitness reports showing that what really happened was a botched US attempt to snatch Iran’s uranium that left shot-up US aircraft carcasses strewn across the desert landscape.
Has Mojtaba Khamenei been reading The Art of the Deal? I doubt it. Tony Schwartz’s ideas, which he temporarily credited to Trump, are all-too-obvious distillations of conventional wisdom…tired old bromides, really, that anyone with some time on their hands could easily come up with, even if they weren’t shadowing Donald Trump. We all know it’s best to deal from strength. We all know that “thinking big” (within reason) can sometimes work. We all know that listening to our gut intuition (or better yet, flashes of Divine guidance) is a good idea, and that the experts are sometimes wrong. We all know it’s better to have options than no options. We all know, if we’ve taken any good literature classes, that storytelling rules the world. And we all know that people who back up their bold claims with real results tend to be more successful than those who endlessly bullshit… people like Donald Trump, America’s Bullshitter-in-Chief.
Iran is led by people who have undergone the most rigorous academic training—in philosophy and theology—on Earth. They read and write serious books. And when they are forced to wage defensive war, they bring that brainpower to bear.
The USA is led by an airheaded narcissist who once pretended to write a book, but probably has never actually read a serious book in his life. If Trump really did keep a book of Hitler’s speeches at his bedside, as his ex-wife Ivanka claims, it probably served as a talisman rather than material for serious reading.
Mojtaba Khamenei is driving a hard bargain. He knows he has Trump, his father’s murderer, over a barrel.
It seems that Iran is teaching some hard lessons to the purported author of The Art of the Deal.
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive – August 14, 2026
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive – August 13, 2026
Press TV – August 15, 2026
The United States has been forced to relocate much of its naval logistics operations to a remote base in the Indian Ocean following heavy attacks by Iran on its key military installation in Bahrain, according to reports.
The reports and analyses, published on Saturday by The New York Times and Defense Security Asia, indicated that the Pentagon had moved its primary naval logistics hub to Diego Garcia, an island in the central Indian Ocean shared between the US and the United Kingdom and under British command.
The reports showed that Iran’s missile and drone strikes, which began in late February after the launch of a joint US-Israeli aggression on the country, had severely damaged the Fifth Fleet command, which hosts US Naval Support Activity Bahrain.
This development means that the US Navy must now rely on a 2,200-mile logistics chain, instead of a short sustainment network in the Persian Gulf, to supply the massive aircraft carriers deployed near Iranian waters for carrying out attacks on the country.
This comes amid reports of shortages aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, a carrier with 5,000 sailors and US Marines that is approaching nine months on deployment.
Those reports have indicated acute problems with food, hygiene, mail, plumbing, and laundry aboard the carrier, leading to unrest and even attempted suicides among the service members deployed on the ship.
“…reported shortages aboard USS Abraham Lincoln demonstrate how destroying shore infrastructure can progressively degrade combat endurance without directly striking a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier,” Defense Security Asia said in its report.
The US is planning to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln with the USS George Washington in the region, although experts warn that the deployment could further expose the vulnerabilities of the US Navy during the ongoing confrontation with Iran.
The report by The New York Times said that Iran’s devastating attacks on the Fifth Fleet facilities in Bahrain have been the main reason behind the difficulties reported by US warships in the region.
“The loss of the hub in Bahrain has contributed to a host of reported problems on carriers supporting operations against Iran,” it said.
Both reports acknowledged that another regional logistics hub capable of supporting US aircraft carriers, located in the Emirati port of Fujairah, is well within the reach of Iranian missile and drone attacks.
They also said that the base in Diego Garcia could itself become a target of Iranian attacks, pointing to the firing of Iranian medium-range missiles at the base in March, just after Britain authorized the conditional use of the base by the US.
The reports come as many in the US and around the world, including families of the sailors aboard US aircraft carriers and lawmakers, continue to question the purpose of the prolonged deployment of US Navy assets near Iran, arguing that the war of aggression on the country has resulted in no tangible achievement for the US nearly six months after it began.
Sputnik – 15.08.2026
MOSCOW – The Russian Foreign Ministry has requested clarification from the United States and Turkiye over information released by the US Congress regarding plans to supply weapons to Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a statement on Saturday.
“The Russian Foreign Ministry has requested clarifications from Washington and Ankara in connection with information released by the US Congress,” Zakharova said.
The US and Turkiye still have time to soberly assess the situation regarding plans to supply weapons to Ukraine, she said.
According to documents released by the US Congress, the arsenal is substantial, namely: 12 multiple rocket launchers and over 2,500 unguided cluster munitions for them, 47,000 cluster artillery shells of 203mm caliber, and 70 ATACMS operational-tactical missiles, Zakharova added.
Pumping new weapons would not seriously affect the course of the special military operation but causes serious damage to bilateral relations with the US and Turkiye, she said.
Attempts to use peacekeeping rhetoric while simultaneously supplying weapons to Ukraine are undermining mutual trust, especially given Turkiye’s assurances that it avoids “lethal” supplies.
Zakharova noted that the timing of the transfer of a large-scale shipment of lethal cargo to recipients in Ukraine is unclear.
“It’s worth noting that the circumstances and conditions of such a large-scale ‘transfer’ of lethal materials remain extremely contradictory. It’s unclear who initiated the re-export, how, and when the plan is to transfer the large-scale lethal cargo to recipients in Kiev,” Zakharova said.
It is also unclear what motivated the United States and Turkey to “open Pandora’s box” and prolong the Kiev regime’s agony, she said, adding that this was particularly striking given that both countries claim a special role in resolving the Ukrainian crisis and have declared a political and diplomatic settlement their priority.
“However, multifaceted damage from such supplies is inevitable. It is not only about the casualties and destruction that the authorities in Kiev are seeking to escalate, but also about serious harm to our bilateral relations with Washington and Ankara,” Zakharova said.
Zakharova highlighted that the supply of additional weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces will not affect the course of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine.
“Flooding Zelensky’s junta with ever more weapons will not be able to significantly affect the course of the special military operation in accordance with a just Russian scenario,” Zakharova said in a comment published on the ministry’s website.
The comment came amid reports of possible US-Turkish plans to supply Ukraine with a large batch of US-made weapons, including multiple-launch rocket systems, cluster munitions and ATACMS operational-tactical missiles.
Sputnik – 15.08.2026
SEOUL – South Korean President Lee Jae-myung on Saturday said the country aims to end the war on the Korean Peninsula and replace the current unstable armistice regime with a peace regime.
“We will begin the path to ending the war and transforming the unstable armistice regime on the Korean Peninsula into a peace regime,” Lee said in a speech marking the 81st anniversary of Korea’s liberation from Japanese colonial rule.
The president called on both sides to abandon mutual threats and begin inter-Korean talks to end the decades-long “state of war.”
“Let us abandon the intention of threatening each other and begin inter-Korean talks to end this extremely protracted war. Within this process, effective ways to stop the North’s nuclear build-up can also be discussed,” Lee added.
Peace on the Korean Peninsula would contribute to stability and cooperation in Northeast Asia and serve as a milestone toward a “nuclear-free” peace, he said.
Lee also added that South Korea intends to turn the energy of hostility and confrontation into a driving force for peaceful coexistence and shared prosperity, and to fulfill its role as a direct party to the peace process on the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea has repeatedly stated it has no intention of abandoning its nuclear weapons. In September 2025, leader Kim Jong Un declared the denuclearization issue “closed,” adding that Pyongyang would never give up its nuclear arsenal. In March 2026, he said that North Korea would strengthen its nuclear state status as “absolutely irreversible.” The country’s nuclear status has also been enshrined in law.
In September 2023, North Korea added a provision on the accelerated development of nuclear forces to its constitution, following a September 2022 law on nuclear policy.
Sputnik -14.08.2026
WASHINGTON – The national debt of the United States has increased by more than $500 billion since July 1 and has come close to a record high of $40 trillion, RIA Novosti calculated based on data from the US Treasury Department.
In early July, that number was $39.389 trillion, by mid-August, the figure reached $39.913 trillion. Thus, the net increase in less than a month and a half amounted to $524.22 billion.
In the first 10 months of the 2026 fiscal year alone, the US government allocated a record $963 billion to service and pay interest on the national debt, RIA Novosti previously found out based on data from the Congressional Budget Office.
In the future, the debt burden will only increase. According to the congressional estimates, the US national debt will continue to grow continuously over the next decade. As early as fiscal year 2027, the figure is expected to exceed $41.3 trillion, the psychological mark of 50 trillion will be reached by 2033, and by fiscal year 2036 it will reach more than $56.2 trillion.
By Lucas Leiroz | August 14, 2026
Instances of Ukrainian interference in the internal affairs of European countries continue to grow. The Kiev regime is intensifying its destabilization activities abroad, using even terrorist tactics to boycott its own European allies. As the pro-Ukraine agenda becomes increasingly unpopular in Europe, the regime is left with little choice but to employ illegal interference methods to prevent its source of military and financial aid from drying up.
Recently, Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of the Bulgarian opposition party Revival, publicly advocated for the expulsion of the Ukrainian ambassador to Sofia, Olesya Ilashchuk. He accuses the Ukrainian diplomat of interfering in Bulgaria’s domestic affairs, particularly regarding recent drone incidents.
These comments come amidst the controversy surrounding the incursion into Bulgarian airspace by a Ukrainian drone, which exploded in the Kardam region near energy facilities of the Trans-Balkan Pipeline. Bulgarian Ministry of Defense specialists analyzed the wreckage and concluded it was a “Maya” UAV used by the Ukrainian armed forces.
Following the incident, the Bulgarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Ukrainian diplomats in the country to provide explanations to the authorities in Sofia. However, Ambassador Ilashchuk’s stance was deemed inappropriate. She downplayed the incident’s significance, regarding it as insignificant, even though the explosion occurred near an energy facility – a situation that could have led to serious consequences, such as larger explosions, massive fires, and the release of toxic gases.
Kostadinov commented on the matter, stating that the ambassador should immediately be declared “persona non grata”. He considers it intolerable for a foreign diplomat to downplay the seriousness of a drone incident on Bulgarian soil. Furthermore, he asserted that by acting this way, she is undermining relations between Ukraine and Bulgaria – doing the exact opposite of what a diplomat is supposed to do.
“She clearly does not contribute to good diplomatic relations between Ukraine and Bulgaria and there are sufficient grounds for her to be declared persona non grata,” he said.
The opposition leader described the case as an “act of aggression” and further stated that Ukraine is likely involved in other similar occurrences that need to be investigated by Bulgarian authorities. Moreover, he believes this is linked to the fact that Bulgaria has recently reduced its assistance to the Ukrainian regime. The apparent goal is to interfere in the Bulgarian government’s decisions, pressuring it to actively participate in the war if it wishes to avoid incidents like this.
It remains unclear what Ukraine’s actual intention is with these drone operations. The regime may be seeking to directly coerce Bulgaria – as well as other European countries – by demonstrating its capacity to damage local energy facilities if its interests are not met. Alternatively, the Ukrainian intention could be to stage “false flag” attacks, leading Bulgarians to believe that Russia is behind these incursions.
Ultimately, the Ukrainians’ goal is to ensure that their source of funds and weapons does not dry up. As European nations see their weapons stockpiles and financial reserves decrease – and with local populations increasingly stopping their support for pro-Ukraine policies – the regime grows concerned about the future of international aid, prompting it to stage provocations designed to spark panic in Europe and thereby attempt to regain support.
However, the Ukrainian strategy to regain support is proving unsuccessful. The Bulgarians did not fall for the regime’s trap and acted rationally, investigating the drone’s origin and demanding explanations from Ukrainian diplomats. Furthermore, stances like Kostadinov’s demonstrate that the local people desired an even harsher response, such as the expulsion of diplomats and the severing of relations.
In other words, the Ukrainian strategy of attempting to regain support through provocations, fear, and terror is actually having the opposite effect – making the pro-Ukraine agenda even more unpopular among Bulgarians and other Europeans as well. Ultimately, this demonstrates how the regime’s true nature is becoming apparent to the Western public, who no longer believe the Ukrainian government’s deceptive narratives and are unwilling to continue contributing to the conflict’s indefinite prolongation.
It is inevitable that this will lead to deeper repercussions. European governments are likely to increasingly scale back their aid to Ukraine in the near future – whether by choice or simply because they lack the capacity to continue assisting, given the depletion of available military and financial resources in Europe. At some point, international assistance will prove insufficient, leaving the regime with no alternative but to recognize its defeat on the battlefield.
Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
You can follow Lucas on X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram.