By Omar Ahmed | MEMO | December 10, 2024
By Alan Sabrosky • Unz Review • December 8, 2024
“For they have sown the wind,
and they shall reap the whirlwind.”
-Hosea 8:7
The collapse of the Assad government in Syria is certain to be greeted with considerable satisfaction in Jerusalem and Washington. Both capitals of the Zionist Co-Dominium have long seen the Assads much as they did Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi. All were obstacles to Israel’s designs in the region.
All three were also targets of that nefarious policy of “regime change” highlighted by the US after 9/11, as were four other countries in the region. Now the last of the three has fallen, albeit much later than the mostly Jewish neoconservative “chicken hawks” (so called because all advocated war but very few ever served in uniform) had anticipated back in 2001.
So What Caused the Collapse?
Internal dynamics within Syria that played their part, to be sure, but I will focus here on the external factors. A major reason was the unrelenting pressure and considerable resources poured into the assorted militias and jihadists trying to overthrow Syria’s regime. Money talks, and it talked very loudly here. So did the frequent Israeli air and artillery strikes into Syria. Shielded by the US, Russian forces in Syria could do little for their ally.
Then, too, the numerically small but politically significant, open-ended US military presence on the ground in Syria had their own impact, So did the limited but strategically significant direct military attacks by the US and other NATO countries on Syrian government forces and installations. Image matters, and here it mattered greatly.
Syria’s Assad could never match that. Only Russia (to a very limited extent) and Iran (to a even lesser one) really did much of anything. But Russia is caught up with the Ukrainian “tar baby” and Iran is hedging its bets in anticipation of America’s own “regime change.” A scarcity of strong, reasonably reliable allies also counts, and it counted here, but not in a good way.
Second, Syria lost the information and propaganda war, in a very big and very decisive way. The Jewish-dominated media in the US and most of Europe made sure that virtually every claim, no matter how ludicrous, of the jihadists and other anti-government elements in Syria was treated as Gospel truth. Few in the legacy media disputed their assertions, although many did in the alternative media and on social media platforms.
It wasn’t enough. Israel can rip Gaza apart and kill tens of thousands of civilians, but any criticism of its very real war crimes is almost universally denounced in the media and Western capitals as “vicious antisemitism” that needs to be suppressed and punished. That criticism was nothing of the sort, but it demonstrates the exceptional degree of Jewish influence throughout the West. It also underscores the accuracy of the axiom that “truth is the first casualty of war,” at least whenever Israel or its interests are involved.
Third, it is worth noting that this event saw insurgent militias and local jihadists do to the Syrian government forces what the US-backed mujaheddin did to the Afghan government and their Soviet allies, and later the Taliban (the lineal operational descendants of the original mujaheddin) did to another Afghan government and its American patron. It seems that local governments have very great difficulty holding out against insurgents who have an external sanctuary, external assistance, or both.
In all three cases cited above, the insurgents had both. In Syria, the government forces had also to contend with direct military attacks by Israel, the US and other NATO countries. What made it harder for them was that they essentially fought these external forces with one hand firmly tied behind their backs.
Other than in defense, Syrian government forces could only engage in occasional artillery duels with the Israelis, but not respond to air attacks in kind. Nor could the Russians assist them, other than defensively. Any attempt to respond directly to US, Israeli or other attacks meant a direct confrontation with the US, Israel covered by its American puppet, or NATO. The Syrians could not do this alone, and Syria simply was not worth enough to Russia to risk that kind of engagement.
Reflections
It will take some time for the implications of all this to become clearer (perhaps “less murky” would be more accurate). I expect the current Syrian government officials and senior military commanders are wondering if they will still be alive next week. I am not a specialist on Syrian affairs, but the historical track record in these situations would not be reassuring to them.
I expect, however, a major consideration on the part of the winners will be the role intended for them by their foreign patrons. Do we want the new Syrian government to be another Egypt, at least insofar as Israel is concerned? Or is it something else?
Whatever it is, insurgent forces – even heavily infiltrated ones – have shown themselves to be exceptionally difficult to predict or to control, or even to influence, once they are in power. Recall that the people the US armed to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan morphed into a Taliban which employed some of those weapons and techniques to force yet another humiliating American debacle.
The Israeli experience with these things is even more problematic. I was told back in the 1980s by a senior Israeli officer that they had successfully infiltrated every single Arab government and movement, relying principally on Sephardic Jews. So when Israel set up Hamas in the 1980s as a counter-weight to the PLO, I expect they thought they had made a good bargain. Yet it, too, changed over the years. Infiltrated or not, it has given Israel a more “interesting” time than it anticipated.
The case of ISIS and the Syrian jihadists is even more interesting. Now, “false flags” (attacking someone but making people believe someone else is doing it) is something of an Israeli specialty. The motto of Mossad, the best-known Israeli intelligence organization, is aptly “By Deception, Shall You Wage War.
Mossad and its sister organizations have lived up to that motto since the founding of Israel. They have been aided worldwide by dual Israeli citizens, or Jews without Israeli citizenship, some Christian Zionists, and outright mercenaries.
Examples abound. Three of particular relevance to the US, for example, are the Lavon Affair in Egypt (1954), the attack on the USS Liberty (1967) and the 9/11 attacks (2001). Worth looking them up (do NOT trust either Wikipedia or Google search engine!), but here is a start on the last-named one.
The case of ISIS is even more intriguing. Supposedly a militant Islamic organization, it seems to have exceptionally great difficulty hitting Israeli or American targets anywhere in the world. This was a problem Osama bin Laden’s Al-Qaeda, with fewer assets, obviously did not share.
Despite the resources to field fleets of white Toyota pick-up trucks with heavy weapons in their beds and other paraphernalia, they found it an “almost” insurmountable challenge to strike what should be their own principal enemies. Curious, is it not? I wonder how many ISIS leaders have shared drinks with their Mossad and CIA contacts.
Last are the Syrian jihadists, easily the most fascinating facet of the Syrian puzzle. We are told constantly that these people are Islamic fanatics who spend their nights dreaming of how to kill non-believers, and their days trying to do it (or is that backwards?). But apparently there are “good” jihadists and “bad” jihadists. The former are those who do the bidding of Western governments (including Israel) and attack Muslim countries. The latter are those that apparently do not.
Peering Ahead
It is hazardous at best to anticipate what will emerge in the aftermath of the Syrian government’s defeat. At a minimum, I would expect the new rulers to order the Russians out. Of course, the Russians may not go, just as the US ignored the demands of many weaker governments to leave. Imperial powers, even if weakening and in a chaotic world, are often like that.
We may learn a bit more about ISIS and these “good” jihadists in Syria. Precisely what will they do in power? Will they be like the Taliban in Afghanistan? If not, what would that say about their actual character and that of their leaders? Thought-provoking times, at best.
What is clearer is that what happened in Syria will embolden the Israelis to deal with the Palestinians within and Lebanon and Hezbollah without, especially once Trump is President and recognizes Israeli sovereignty over East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Trump is even more beholden to Israel than most US presidents, and Israel will capitalize on it.
Moreover, with Assad’s Syria removed from the game, Iran will move to the regional front burner. No person in the US can now even be a serious candidate for President without being in Israel’s pocket, much less be elected to that office, but the two American political factions have different priorities.
What this means is that the Neo-conservatives stacking up in Trump’s administration are an odds-on certainty to see this as a golden opportunity to complete their 2001 agenda and neutralize Iran. Knowing them, they and Jewish money will push (perhaps I should say “nudge”) Trump to do one of three things: (1) support Israel in attacking Iran, (2) join Israel in doing that, or (3) attacking Iran without Israel.
The net effect is a far more dangerous 2025 than recent years have seen, and they have not been exactly a joy. We face civil upheaval at home and more war abroad, if Trump actually puts his agenda into effect. For Israel, Syria’s defeat and Trump’s presidency augur well on its march to a “Greater Israel.” For Palestinians. Lebanese and so many others in the region, things have gone from bad to an almost unimaginably worse. For Americans, challenging times, indeed.
Alan Ned Sabrosky (PhD, University of Michigan) is a ten-year US Marine Corps veteran. He served in Vietnam with the 1st Marine Division and is a graduate of the US Army War College. Dr. Sabrosky can be contacted at docbrosk@comcast.net
Al-Manar | December 8, 2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday he had ordered the Israeli military to “seize” a UN-patrolled buffer zone between the Israeli- and Syrian-controlled Golan Heights.
The premier said a 1974 disengagement agreement with Syria “has collapsed”, so he “directed the (military) yesterday to seize the buffer zone and the commanding positions nearby.”
“We will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our border,” Netanyahu said during a visit to the Mount Bental on the border between occupied Palestine and Syria.
Meanwhile, he claimed credit for starting the chain of events that led to the fall of the Syrian government after the armed opposition entered the capital, Damascus, early on Sunday.
“This is a historic day in the history of the Middle East. This is a direct result of the blows we have inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah, the main supporters of the (President Bashar) Al-Assad regime.”
Netanyahu also warned that alongside new opportunities, the flight of Assad from Syria also brings risks.
The Cradle | December 8, 2024
Extremist armed groups battling under the banner of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) took control of the strategic city of Homs in central Syria on 7 December, after the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) “repositioned its forces” outside the city with no clashes reported.
“The SAA, paramilitary forces, and allies of the Syrian government withdrew from the city of Homs … No clashes were recorded in or around the city before orders were given out to soldiers to withdraw,” Al Mayadeen’s correspondent in Homs reported late on Saturday.
According to local sources, fighters from the Turkish-backed HTS and Syrian National Army (SNA) have taken control of “every neighborhood in the city.”
HTS, a UN-designated terrorist organization, launched a shock invasion of the Aleppo countryside on 27 November. Their numbers were reportedly bolstered by extremist groups from Central Asia that entered Syria via Turkiye. Ukrainian special forces have also been providing support to the armed groups.
Over the past 10 days, HTS and SNA fighters – most of them former members of Al-Qaeda and ISIS – have taken control of the cities of Aleppo, Hama, and Homs.
As the offensive gains speed, the SAA has repeatedly chosen to redeploy troops outside battle zones, largely avoiding clashes.
Homs is strategically positioned at a crucial crossroads between Damascus and Syria’s coastal provinces, Latakia and Tartus – the government’s stronghold and home to a vital Russian naval base.
Al Mayadeen reports that, after leaving Homs, the SAA has also withdrawn “from the mountains of Latakia towards the city on the Syrian coast.” The Syrian army also withdrew from the eastern Deir Ezzor governorate earlier this week under an “agreement” with the US-sponsored Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
With Damascus now in sight of the extremists, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has ordered reinforcements to the Hermel area, which borders Syria and is located around 40 km away from Homs.
“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead,” HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, a former Al-Qaeda warlord and deputy of the notorious ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, told CNN earlier this week.
Since the start of the offensive, western media launched a blitz to promote Julani and HTS as “diversity-friendly” moderates that will protect Syria’s religious minorities.
During the US-led war on Syria that began in 2011, the Nusra Front (HTS’ former name) and ISIS carried out large numbers of massacres of Christians, Shiites, Alawites, Yezidis, and even Sunnis who were supportive of the governments of Iraq and Syria.
“We called for an immediate end to hostile activities … and for this purpose called for the dialogue between the government and legitimate opposition,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Saturday from Doha after meeting his Turkish and Iranian counterparts.
Moscow has been providing aerial support for Damascus since the start of the offensive, killing hundreds of HTS and SNA-allied extremists.
By Seyyed Ali Reza | Press TV | December 8, 2024
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Damascus has fallen to a cluster of militant groups that rampaged through the war-ravaged Arab country, starting from Aleppo last week.
The collapse of the Arab country began soon after a ceasefire was announced in Lebanon early last week, following nearly 70 days of unbridled aggression by the Israeli regime, which claimed thousands of civilian lives but failed to achieve any significant military objectives.
The marauding militant groups, led by Hayaat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra), launched a lightning-fast offensive on Aleppo, followed by rapid advances into Idlib, Hama, and Homs, ultimately overrunning Damascus early on Sunday.
Despite initial resistance by the Syrian Arab Army, the government forces gradually retreated from key areas, enabling the militant groups—backed by Western and Arab states as well as the Israeli regime—to achieve stunning military advances toward Damascus.
The whereabouts of the deposed Syrian president remain unknown, with speculation rife that he is either holed up at a Russian military base inside Syria or has fled to the UAE or Russia.
Syria has always been, and remains, a vital cog in the Axis of Resistance—a status that will not change regardless of who takes control in Damascus. The country’s strategic importance remains undiminished.
Furthermore, despite the dramatic developments in Syria, the dynamics within the broader Axis of Resistance remain unaffected. Palestine continues to be the central issue for the alliance.
Syria has historically served as a conduit for supplying arms and other resources to Lebanese and Palestinian resistance movements. However, these movements have now achieved self-reliance, producing their own weapons, including missiles and drones.
Iran’s support for the Axis of Resistance will continue regardless of Syria’s leadership, with Palestine remaining the foremost priority for the Islamic Resistance and its regional allies.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s recent diplomatic engagements across the region were aimed at ensuring that the primary issue of Palestine remains at the forefront amidst these developments.
“The principled stance of the Islamic Republic of Iran in supporting the people and resistance of Palestine and Lebanon against the occupation and aggression of the Zionist regime will continue with strength,” Araghchi stated during a meeting with senior Hamas leadership in Doha on Saturday.
He was in Doha to attend a regional conference on Syria with counterparts from Russia and Turkey.
The rapid fall of the Syrian government has left many questioning how it happened. The collapse has been described as even more dramatic than the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul nearly three years ago.
However, it did not happen overnight. The militant groups, led by HTS, had been doing groundwork for this moment for years in areas considered their strongholds, with external support.
The chaos in the region—exacerbated by Israel’s ongoing genocidal war on Gaza and aggression in Lebanon—provided them an opportunity to strike decisively. This is the moment they had waited for.
None of these militant groups stood up for Gaza or Lebanon, as many have rightly argued, primarily because they didn’t wish to antagonize the Tel Aviv regime. They remained focused on Syria.
Starting last week, Assad’s forces retreated with little resistance. There are several reasons for the Syrian Arab Army’s failure to withstand the militants’ advances, and one of them is the grave economic situation in the country that impacted every section of Syrian society.
Syria’s economic situation has deteriorated alarmingly over the years, particularly since the United States imposed crippling sanctions under the “Caesar Act” in December 2019. These sanctions compounded the challenges for the Assad government as it could not initiate economic reforms.
The United States also provided backing to many of the militant groups opposed to Assad’s regime, which has been widely documented in leaked cables and statements of top US officials.
Assad’s ouster, however, does not signify a return to stability for Syria, nor does it guarantee the lifting or easing of sanctions. The new rulers are not a cohesive entity but rather a coalition of militant groups with varying ideologies, affiliations, and political objectives.
Several regional countries, including Qatar, Turkey, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, have directly or indirectly supported these militant groups that toppled Assad’s government for their own regional ambitions.
The new ruling coalition in Damascus is likely to face significant challenges, particularly in gaining international legitimacy—similar to the de facto Taliban government in Kabul.
There is also a strong possibility that these militant groups will eventually turn on each other, as their objectives are fundamentally misaligned. Each faction is likely to seek a larger share of power.
The Israeli regime, which thrives on regional insecurity and chaos, is expected to continue exacerbating the situation. Recent reports suggest that Israel has attempted to expand its invasion of Syrian territories beyond the already occupied Golan Heights, taking advantage of the ongoing turmoil.
While it is evident that these militant groups benefited from support provided by the Zionist regime, this support will not continue now that they have toppled Syria’s democratically elected government.
The coming days and weeks are critical that would determine which direction the region takes. However, one thing is for sure, the resistance axis remains intact and in a stronger position.
Seyyed Ali Riza is a Sydney-based writer who specializes in West Asia affairs.
Press TV – December 7, 2024
A commander from the so-called Free Syrian Army (FSA) militant group has reportedly expressed hope for friendly relations with Israel, urging the occupying regime to extend both political and military support for their insurgency against the Syrian government.
In an article published on Friday, the Times of Israel quoted an unnamed FSA commander as stressing the need for a clear political stance from the Israeli regime.
“We have enough fighters on the ground. What we need from Israel is a clear political stance against the Assad regime,” he stated.
The commander also called for increased aerial support from the Israeli regime, suggesting that the regime should attack the forces in Syria “wherever it sees them.”
“We are trying to block them on the roads and ambush them, but Israel should also take action from the air,” said the commander.
Highlighting the potential for friendship, he noted that the armed group is open to alliances “with everyone in the region – including Israel.”
He also referenced recent Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, stating that they have significantly aided the militant group in its advancements on Syrian soil.
“We are thankful to Israel for its strikes against Hezbollah,” he said, adding, “We hope that after the fall of Assad, Israel will plant a rose in the Syrian garden and will support the Syrian people.”
Asked about the future of Syria, the militant commander affirmed, “We will go for full peace with Israel, we will live side by side as neighbors,” insisting that the group has never made “any critical comments about Israel.”
His comments come as militants, having suffered setbacks due to years of retaliatory operations by the Syrian military and its allies, are attempting to regroup in northern Syria.
There are growing reports of substantial Western and Israeli support for anti-Damascus factions, including those affiliated with Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham.
The Syrian military continues its extensive campaign, reversing some of the territorial gains by the militants.
By Vladimir Mashin – New Eastern Outlook – December 7, 2024
The special military operation in Ukraine essentially puts an end to the unipolar world in which the Americans considered themselves the supreme ruler, bossing around other countries.
The movement from a unipolar world to a multipolar reality takes several years and this process is not always linear. It is appropriate to recall the words of N. G. Chernyshevsky: history is not the sidewalk of Nevsky Prospekt; it goes in zigzags, with digressions, etc.
At the same time, Israel’s war in Gaza, which began in October, 2023, has noticeably accelerated this process. There are many signs that Israel’s horrible military behaviour in the Palestinian enclave under the guise of self-defence had significant geopolitical consequences, which first and foremost manifested themselves in undermining the US’ status as a global superpower. The world is deeply polarised again; the Global South no longer sees the West as a defender of values and the rule of law.
The United States has seriously weakened the UN Security Council, repeatedly using its veto power to thwart draft resolutions calling for an unconditional ceasefire in Gaza. The fact that many so-called Western liberal democracies defended Israel’s policy of genocide has undermined the functioning of the existing world order.
US ‘mediation’ in favour of Israel
Israel has put itself above the law and it did so with the unconditional support of the United States. For many years, the US, which designated itself the exclusive mediator in the political settlement between Israel and the Palestinians, accepted without any reservations the expansion of illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied territories, ignoring the demolition of Palestinian houses, murder and the imprisonment of thousands of people. In fact, they encouraged the apartheid regime and used their influence in the UN Security Council to curb any attempts to hold Israel accountable.
During the first Trump administration, Washington went even further, unilaterally recognising Israel’s illegal annexation of East Jerusalem and the Syrian Golan Heights. By doing so, the Arab News newspaper emphasised in an article on November 26, “the United States itself became a rogue state violating international law and becoming guilty of Israeli war crimes”.
Israeli extremists assume that the United States will give them the green light to annex the West Bank of the Jordan River and thereby destroy any prospect of creating a Palestinian state.
It is the United States that is guilty of destroying many opportunities to settle the Arab-Israeli conflict. The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth noted at the end of November this year that President Bill Clinton, wishing to go down in history as a peacemaker, made a bold diplomatic gesture on December 13, 1998, by visiting Gaza and the site of the future international airport of Palestine. Clinton and his wife Hillary were then greeted by Yasser Arafat and his wife Suha. The US president, whose term in office was ending, privately assured several Arab officials of his intention to declare his support for Palestinian statehood before leaving office. However, as always, his promises only remained on paper.
At the end of November this year, some Americans spread rumours that the Biden administration hinted at the possibility of supporting the Security Council resolution calling for the creation of an independent Palestinian state in an attempt to somehow wash the blood off its hands.
The West is no longer at the helm
Following the sharp international reaction to the war in Gaza, the United States are among the only open supporters of Israel’s actions. This obvious disregard by Washington and its allies for Palestinians lives has seriously undermined their authority and influence in many parts of the globe – and above all in the Global South.
The US position in the world is weakening as a result of Russia’s firm and consistent vector, China’s rapid economic growth, the birth of new coalitions of the Global South (such as BRICS, SCO, ASEAN, etc.). Regional powers such as Türkiye, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Malaysia, etc. are gaining strength.
The growing global influence of non-Western cultural movements, especially the media, challenges the power of traditional Western media. The proliferation of diverse sources and social media platforms significantly limits the role of the once dominant Western newspapers and TV channels. Not only is America’s position weakening, but there is an unprecedented drop in confidence in government structures in Western Europe.
The transition to a multipolar world is a reality that coincides with the decline of US global hegemony and Trump’s ‘America First’ policy. As the United States retreats to its chambers, its global influence will decrease.
In the United States, there is a growing awareness of the decline of the US role in international affairs. The West is no longer at the helm, the Bloomberg agency wrote on November 20; more and more countries no longer want to play by the old rules. The domestic political situation is so tense that Bloomberg concludes that the US is in a revolutionary situation and that the decline of ordinary people’s well-being decreases trust in the ruling elites.
However, the West is not going to give up its positions without a fight, so we are yet to face new crises and cataclysms.
By Alastair Crooke | Strategic Culture Foundation | December 6, 2024
‘Doomsters’ is an occasional Russian expression used to categorise commentators that only see the ‘dark side to events’ (a vice quite prevalent during the Soviet era). Marat Khairullin, a highly respected Russian military analyst, says, “Today, a network of mercenary war bloggers has begun another round of moaning – this time about Syria, where apparently everything is lost for Russia”.
“Many see the events in Syria (and some add Georgia to the mix) as attempts to open additional fronts against our country. Perhaps that’s true. But in that case, it’s more appropriate to draw direct parallels with the reckless attack on Kursk, which left the Ukrainian armed forces in an almost hopeless position”.
Khairullin views the activation of this jihadist insurgency in Syria as a similarly ‘desperate’ act. The background is that the Syria-Russia-Iran coalition had – through the Astana negotiations – “cornered the remaining Syrian terrorists into a 6,000 sq. km enclave. Without delving into the details, it was a process reminiscent of the [Ukrainian] Minsk Agreements—both sides were utterly exhausted and thus agreed to a ceasefire. Importantly, all sides understood this was only a temporary truce; the contradictions were so profound that no one expected the conflict to end”.
Aleppo fell quickly these past days, as “one division of the Syrian National Army outright defected to the Islamists (read: Americans)”. The defection was a set up. Northern Aleppo was occupied by the Syrian National Army, fully controlled, armed and funded by Turkey, which dominates northern Aleppo.
The key, Khairullin says, is this crucial point: The land is flat criss-crossed by few roads:
“ … whomsoever controls the airspace controls the country. Last year, Russia formed a new aerial unit called the Special Air Corps, reportedly tailored for overseas operations. It consists of four aviation regiments, including a regiment of Su-35s. Currently, just two Su-35s are overseeing the entirety of Syria’s territory. Imagine the impact when 24 such aircraft are deployed. And Russia is fully capable of such a deployment”.
The second crucial point is that “Iran and Russia have drawn closer. At the start of the Syrian war, relations between the two were decidedly ‘neutral-hostile’. By late 2024 however, we now see a very strong alliance. Israel and the U.S., by violating the peace agreements through this Turkish insurrection, have provoked a renewed Iranian presence in Syria: Iran has begun to expand beyond its bases, redeploying additional forces into the country. This gives Assad and his allies a direct pretext to expel the American and Turkish proxies from Aleppo and Idlib. This isn’t speculation — it’s straightforward arithmetic”.
Syria, however, is a key component to the Israeli-American plan to remake the Middle East. Syria is both the supply-line for Hizbullah, as well as a hub of resistance to Israel’s “Greater Israel Project”. Now that the permanent ‘Anglo’ Security State unreservedly is backing Israel’s ambition to assert regional hegemony, the West has okayed Erdogan’s jihadist insurrection against President Assad. The aim is to split Iran from its allies, weaken Assad and to prepare for the putative Iran overthrow. Reportedly, the Turkish initiative was hurriedly brought forward, to fit with Israel’s ceasefire plan.
Khairullin’s point is that this Syria ‘ploy’ is akin to Ukraine’s “reckless attack on Kursk”, which diverted Ukrainian élite forces from the beleaguered Contact Line, and then marooned these forces in an almost hopeless position in Kursk. Instead of weakening Moscow (as intended), ‘Kursk’ inverted NATO’s original objective – by becoming opportunity to eradicate a major portion of Ukraine’s élite forces.
In Idlib, the Islamists (HTS), writes Khairullin, “had gained dominance – imposing a strict Wahhabi regime and infiltrating the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army. Both groups are patchwork organizations, with various factions fighting over money, border crossings, drugs, and smuggling. Essentially, it’s a cauldron—not very combat-effective but highly greedy”.
“Our Aerospace Forces obliterated all command centres (bunkers) of Tahrir al-Sham … and there is a strong likelihood that the entire leadership of the group has been decapitated”, notes Khairullin.
The Syrian Army’s main forces are advancing toward Aleppo; meanwhile, the Russian Air Force is bombing relentlessly; its Navy held a large drill off the Syria coast on 3 December with test launches of hypersonic and Kalibr cruise missiles; and Wagner and the Iraqi Hash’ad forces (Iraqi PM forces that are now part of the Iraqi army) are grouping on the ground in support of the Syrian Army.
Israeli Intelligence Chief’s lately have begun to scent problems with this ‘clever initiative’ that dovetails so exactly with Israel’s pause in the Lebanon fighting; With the supply route from Syria cut, Israel then – in theory – would be in a position to commence ‘Part Two’ of its attempted onslaught on Hizbullah.
But wait … Israeli Channel 12 reports the possibility that events in Syria are creating threats against Israel “where Israel would be required to act”.
Shades of ‘Kursk’ – rather than Hizbullah being weakened, Israel adds to its military commitments? Erdogan too, may have wrong-footed himself with this gamble. He has infuriated Moscow and Tehran, and is being flailed at home for siding with the U.S. and America against the Palestinians. Further, he has drawn no Arab support (apart from a Qatari studied ambivalence).
Yes, Erdogan has cards to play in the relationship with Putin (control of naval access to the Black Sea, tourism and energy), but Russia is an ascendant great power and can afford to play some hardball in negotiations with a weakened Erdogan. Iran also has cards to play: ‘You, Erdogan, equipped the jihadists with Ukrainian drones; We can deliver the same to the Kurdish Workers Party’.
In the background is the bellicose language emerging from Team Trump, some of whom take harshly aggressive and hardline positions. These Israel-Firster and hawkish appointees by Trump likely emit their bluster as much to project an image of Trumpist strength to the American public, as to project a substantive project.
Trump is known for waving a big stick – and when he has played that tune for a little while, he slips in from behind, to complete a deal.
So we have had (from Trump): “If the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East”.
In the ‘Middle East’? To whom exactly is this addressed? And what does it suggest? (No mention of the thousands of Palestinian detainees and prisoners held by Israel)? Sounds more like Trump has sipped at the Israeli Kool-Aid: ‘All problems derive from Iran’; Israel is the innocent adrift a sea of regional malignity.
Trump’s disciples believe Trump will impose his will to achieve ‘quiet’ in the Middle East – and impose on Putin an end to the Ukraine War. They are convinced Trump can ‘cut a deal’ in the form of an offer to Putin that he cannot refuse. (For, ‘the current ‘owners of the world’ are never going to let China/Russia just waltz in, form BRICS and assume the position of World Hegemon’).
It is a return to the old formula of Zbig Brzezenski: Promise Putin normalisation with U.S. (and Europe) and full sanctions relief, and pull Russia back into the western sphere – severed from a besieged China and Iran (with BRICS scattered to the wind under threat of sanctions).
It fails, however, to take account of how much the world has transitioned in the intervening years since ‘Trump One’. Bluster simply doesn’t carry the effect it used to: America isn’t what it was; nor is it obeyed as it once was.
Does Trump understand this accelerating global metamorphosis (as Will Schryver puts it), that “the only deal to be made with Russia is that of agreeing to the terms Russia dictates”:
“That’s what happens in the real world when you win a big war. And make no mistake, in this war, the Ukrainians have been slaughtered, the U.S./NATO has been humiliated, and the Russians are emerging from it indisputably triumphant, and more powerful on the world stage than they have been since the peak of Soviet strength decades ago”.
In other words, ‘big stick; quick deal’ may not answer to the new world of today.
Putin, in response to a questioner at Astana on 29 November, repeated an earlier warning:
“Let me underscore the key point: the essence of our proposal [on Ukraine, given at the Russian Foreign Ministry] is not a temporary truce or ceasefire, as the West might prefer – to allow the Kiev regime to recover, rearm, and prepare for a new offensive. I repeat: we are not discussing freezing the conflict, but its definitive resolution”.
What Putin is saying – very politely – to the West is that: You still ‘don’t get it’. To seek a deal on Ukraine is to treat the symptom and to ignore a cure. The West has its policy back-to-front, in other words. Putin is clear: A definitive solution would be to delineate the frontier between Atlanticist security ‘interest’ and the security interests of the ‘World Island’ (in Mackinder’s terminology): i.e. to settle the security architecture between the ‘Heartland and the Rim-land’. Once that is done, Ukraine falls naturally into its place. It’s at the end of the agenda, not first.
One highly-regarded foreign policy sage, Professor Sergei Karaganov, explains (original only in Russian):
“Our [Russian] goal is to facilitate the U.S.’s incipient retreat, as peaceably as possible, from the position of global hegemon (which it can no longer afford) to the position of a normal great power. And to expel Europe from being any international actor. Let it stew in its own juices … The conclusion is obvious. We must end the current phase of direct military conflict with the West, but not the broader confrontation with it. Trump will offer to ease pressure on Russia (which he cannot guarantee) in exchange for Russia refraining from a close alliance with China. The Trump administration will propose a deal, alternating threats with promises … but the U.S. already understands that it cannot win. America will remain an unreliable partner for the foreseeable future. Fundamental normalization of our relations with the U.S. should not be expected in the coming decade. Trump’s hands are tied by the Russophobia fanned by liberals for years. The inertia of the Cold War is still quite strong, and so are anti-Russian feelings among most Trumpists”.
“The foremost goal of the current war should be the decisive defeat in Ukraine of Europe’s rising revanchism. This is a war to ward off World War III and to prevent the restoration of the Western yoke. The initial negotiating position is obvious, it has been stated and should not be changed: NATO’s return to its 1997 borders. Beyond that, various options are possible. Naturally, Trump will try to up the ante. So, we should act pre-emptively”, Professor Karaganov advises.
Recall too, that Trump is, at heart, a sworn disciple of the cult of American primacy; American greatness. “He will act accordingly … The Russians will dictate the terms of surrender in this [Ukraine] war because their strength affords them that privilege, and there is nothing the U.S. and its impotent European vassals can do to alter that reality. That said, a decisive strategic defeat is going to be a very bitter pill to swallow for this second Trump administration. Hopefully they won’t opt to set the world on fire in a fit of humiliated madness”.
Press TV – December 6, 2024
The Iranian Foreign Ministry has strongly warned Ukraine against supporting anti-Syria armed groups as reports run rife about Kiev’s providing military assistance and training for the outfits.
“Experience shows that coalescence with terrorism only promotes expansion of insecurity and violence across the world, and would afflict its (terrorism’s) supporters sooner or later,” said Mojtaba Damirchiloo, Head of the ministry’s Eurasia Department, on Friday.
He underlined the dangerous nature of the armed outfits in Syria, which were blacklisted by the United Nations Security Council a long time ago, saying deploying such groups towards destabilizing the West Asia region amounted to adoption of an immoral policy that contradicted all the principles of the international law.
In September, an informed Syrian source told Russia’s Sputnik news agency that a group of 250 Ukrainian forces had reached the Idlib Province in northern Syria to train the armed groups.
According to the source, the Ukrainian instructors were set to train members of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group in production and modernization of drones. “More than 250 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were delivered to HTS in Idlib in batches in the form of components along with civilian goods,” it added.
Damirchiloo pointed to such accounts as well as some other reports about a number of Ukrainian officials engaging in “illegal arms trade” involving the weapons that have been delivered to the European country by the United States, describing such illegal activity as Kiev’s clear violation of its commitments to “preventing and confronting terrorism,” and demanding immediate cessation of such measures.
Earlier this week, members of the HTS were reported to have overrun many government-controlled areas and killed dozens of soldiers in northern Syria.
The Syrian military and its allied Russian forces then began extensive operations against the outfit, reportedly managing to reverse some of its gains.
Damirchiloo, meanwhile, decried Ukrainian officials’ “repetitive and unfounded” claims about, what they describe as, Iran’s role in the underway conflict in the European country.
The Ukrainian officials, he said, were coming up with such remarks as a means of chiming in with the genocidal Israeli regime and the United States, and securing Western financial and arms support.
Reiterating Iran’s position, he asserted, “The Islamic Republic has announced its opposition to warfare since the beginning, is not involved in the conflict in no way, and has invariably invited all parties to negotiate towards finding a diplomatic solution to their differences.”
Al Mayadeen | December 3, 2024
The clashes initiated today by militants belonging to the Deir Ezzor Military Council, affiliated with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), toward the seven peaceful villages in Deir Ezzor, have ended, and the militants have withdrawn to the positions from which they launched their attack in northern Deir Ezzor, Al Mayadeen’s correspondent reported on Tuesday.
The Deir Ezzor Military Council stands for armed groups supported by US occupation forces, operating under the SDF and controlling areas north of the Euphrates River, where several US military bases are located.
Our correspondent further reported the complete withdrawal of the SDF militants after their failed attempt to advance toward the seven peaceful villages in northern Deir Ezzor, after American artillery at the Conoco field provided heavy fire cover for their assault.
Earlier, Al Mayadeen’s correspondent confirmed that US occupation forces had instructed Deir Ezzor Military Council militants to launch an attack on Syrian Army positions in the seven villages in the Deir Ezzor countryside, coinciding with an offensive by the terrorist Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group and other opposition factions on Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama countrysides.
The seven villages are located on the eastern bank of the Euphrates River, in the northern Deir Ezzor countryside. They are: al-Hussainiya, al-Salihiya, Hatla, Marrat, Mazloum, Khasham, and al-Tabiya, all of which are under the control of the Syrian Army.
Our correspondent added that Deir Ezzor Military Council militants had brought in mine-clearance vehicles and began removing the earthen berm on the Khasham front, northern Deir Ezzor.
Intense clashes were reported between Deir Ezzor Military Council militants and the Syrian Army on the outskirts of the towns of al-Salihiya, Marrat, and al-Tabiya in northern Deir Ezzor, where the US-backed militants shelled Khasham village in Deir Ezzor countryside with 12 mortar rounds.
Violent clashes were also reported between the militants and the Syrian Army on the al-Salihiya front in northern Deir Ezzor.
The Syrian Army units also captured 14 members of the SDF-affiliated Deir Ezzor Military Council during the attack that targeted the northeastern countryside of Deir Ezzor, Sputnik reported.
Moreover, SANA reported that the Syrian army is engaged in violent clashes with armed groups north and west of the town of Khattab in the northwestern countryside of Hama, with dozens of terrorists killed and wounded in the vicinity of the towns of Deir Ezzor and the northern countryside of Hama.
SDF attack aims to stop Resistance attacks on US occupation base
Sources told Al Mayadeen that the Americans’ goal in supporting the SDF’s attack is to stop the Resistance attacks on the Conoco base due to its proximity to these villages.
The attack was carried out under American cover and was thwarted by the army, allied forces, and locals, the sources confirmed.
According to the sources, the SDF initiated the attack by firing rockets and shells, which inflicted damage on the residents’ property.
The sources mentioned that the Syrian Army and allied forces repelled an attack by the SDF on the seven villages, north of Deir Ezzor, and forced them to withdraw.
Syrian Army repelling attack on liberated villages
Meanwhile, Syrian state TV said earlier the army and its allied forces were repelling an attack by the Deir Ezzor Military Council on the liberated villages in the al-Jazira region.
The Syrian army, along with allied forces, is also repelling an attack launched by SDF forces in the Deir Ezzor countryside, the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) reported.
On its part, the Syrian Ministry of Defense confirmed that Syrian and Russian airstrikes and missile strikes have targeted militant positions in the southern Idlib countryside and northern Hama, pointing out that the strikes resulted in dozens of fatalities and injuries among the militants, as well as the destruction of their vehicles and weapons.
Al Mayadeen’s correspondent later reported that the Syrian-Russian air forces destroyed a command center belonging to armed groups in the Khan Sheikhoun area in the southern Idlib countryside.
HTS militants launched a wide-scale offensive last Wednesday on areas in the countryside of Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama, managing to enter the city of Aleppo.
The Syrian Army subsequently established a defensive line in the northern Hama countryside and launched a counteroffensive against the militants, regaining control of villages and towns in the northern part of the province.
Qatar seeking solution
Commenting on the events, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari confirmed that “Doha is working with its partners in the region to find solutions to end the fighting in Syria.”
Qatari media quoted Al-Ansari as saying, “We emphasize that there should be a comprehensive solution in Syria based on international resolutions.”
Ensuing disagreements
In a related context, the sources told Al Mayadeen that disagreements erupted after HTS demanded that the so-called “National Army” militants evacuate the sites they had taken control of north of Aleppo.
The sources said that disagreements emerged between the HTS operations room and the “National Army’s” operations room over control positions in Aleppo and its countryside.
RT | December 3, 2024
Tehran would consider a full military deployment to aid Syria if the government in Damascus requests it, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said.
The comments came during an inteview that Araghchi gave to the Qatar-based outlet Al-Araby Al-Jadeed on his way back from Türkiye on Monday evening.
“If the Syrian government asks Iran to send troops to Syria, we will consider the request,” Araghchi was quoted as saying.
Tehran is preparing “a series of steps to calm the situation in Syria and find an opportunity to present an initiative for a permanent solution,” he added.
Militants of al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS) and other Islamist groups launched a large-scale offensive from Idlib province towards Aleppo, Hama and Homs last week. Idlib has been under Turkish protection since a ceasefire negotiated with Russia in 2020.
The expansion of these terrorist groups “may harm Syria’s neighboring countries such as Iraq, Jordan, and Türkiye more than Iran,” Araghchi told the Qatari outlet.
Tehran is willing to “consult and dialogue” with Ankara to bridge their differences, Araghchi noted, but said that Iran demands a withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syria before any meeting between their presidents can take place. According to the Iranian foreign minister, this is a “reasonable” request.
Iran is “concerned about the collapse of the Astana process in Syria, because there is no easy alternative to it,” according to Araghchi. This was a reference to the deal signed in 2017 in the capital of Kazakhstan, in which the governments in Damascus, Ankara, Tehran, and Moscow pledged to work on resolving the Syrian conflict peacefully.
Araghchi also said he intended to visit Moscow to discuss the situation in Syria.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that Ankara supports “Syria’s territorial integrity and national unity” but that ending the conflict required a “consensus in line with the legitimate demands of the Syrian people.” His foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, said on Monday that the hostilities resumed because Damascus ignored the “legitimate demands of the opposition.”
Meanwhile, Russia has reiterated its support for Syrian President Bashar Assad and the government in Damascus.
The Russian expeditionary force, deployed to Syria in 2015 to help Damascus fight against Islamic State (IS, also known as ISIS) terrorists, has carried out a series of airstrikes against the attacking jihadists in support of the Syrian army.
By Haidar Mustafa | The Cradle | December 2, 2024
On 10 September 2014, the US announced the formation of an international coalition with the participation of 86 countries to eradicate the terrorist group ISIS, which had declared the establishment of a “caliphate” in late June.
The coalition’s operations began in Syria and Iraq in early 2015. However, what unfolded was more than just a campaign against terrorism; it became a vehicle for advancing US strategic ambitions in West Asia – including the establishment of illegal military bases to secure influence and resources in eastern Syria, primarily to protect the interests of its key ally, Israel.
Exploiting the war for geostrategic gains
Washington leveraged the anti-ISIS campaign to pursue broader geostrategic goals, deploying roughly 2,000 troops into Syria – an occupation that violated international law and Syrian sovereignty. By 2016, US forces had established a presence at Al-Tanf, a strategically important base located at the tri-border area between Syria, Iraq, and Jordan. This position, south of the Euphrates River, overlooks a critical supply route from Tehran to Damascus and Beirut, which the US views as significant for regional control.
The Al-Tanf base was originally established in 1991 before the Second Gulf War, reactivated during the 2003 Iraq invasion, and then closed after US forces consolidated control in Iraq. It reopened in 2016 after ISIS was driven from the area.
Since then, Al-Tanf has served not only as a training ground for fighters of the CIA-backed Maghawir al-Thawra but also as a cornerstone of broader US interests, as Colonel Daniel Magruder Jr. noted in a 2020 Brookings Institution report entitled Al Tanf garrison: America’s strategic baggage in the Middle East.
According to Magruder, Al-Tanf was meant to facilitate the continued fight against ISIS, counter Iranian activities, and maintain leverage in negotiations over Syria’s future.
However, the base’s role went far beyond these stated goals. US occupation forces at Al-Tanf engaged in both offensive and defensive intelligence operations while also supporting armed groups against the Syrian government.
The base acted as a hub for the Military Operations Center (MOC), a joint effort with several states aimed at coordinating military activities in southern Syria, ultimately undermining Syrian sovereignty and its allies.
The real strategic goal: A buffer zone for Israel
Beyond its military role, Al-Tanf’s strategic location supports plans for a controlled buffer zone involving the nearby Rukban refugee camp. Military expert Major General Muhammad Abbas told The Cradle that this buffer would help US and Israeli objectives by creating a physical barrier between Syria and Iraq.
The base also facilitates Israeli operations in Syrian airspace, providing a logistical advantage for air force missions that circumvent Syrian air defenses. The collaboration between the US and the occupation state has been well documented, with Al-Tanf serving as a launching point for Israeli air strikes deep inside Syria – attacks that would be far riskier from other approaches due to Syrian anti-aircraft systems.
A 2021 report by the Washington Institute highlighted how the US occupying presence at Al-Tanf has directly benefited Israel, supporting its “battle between wars” – a strategic approach aimed at minimizing risk and exploiting weaknesses in Syrian defenses.
Speaking to The Cradle, political analyst Bassem al-Shehawi notes that the US presence in Syria has always aligned with safeguarding Israel, whether by severing geographical links between members of the Axis of Resistance or by deploying advanced radar and air defense systems to protect Tel Aviv’s interests.
Al-Tanf’s importance for the US and Israel
Crucially, it also facilitates Israeli air force attacks on targets deep inside Syria – attacks that could not have been carried out from above Lebanon or the occupied Golan Heights due to the distance involved. Since 2018, when Syrian air defenses shot down an Israeli F-16, Israeli forces have completely avoided entering Syrian airspace from the western side.
Shehawi adds that this base’s importance comes from its buffer zone and air umbrella, which have a radius of 55 kilometers. These were established due to the non-conflict understanding between Russia and the US regarding Syria. The base also played a role in confronting drone and missile attacks launched by Iran during Operations True Promise 1 and 2, whether by providing radar monitoring or attempting to shoot them down, similar to the role played by other US bases in Syria and the wider region.
A report published by Al-Monitor also confirms that Israeli fighter planes had previously used the corridor along the Jordanian–Syrian border and the airspace around Al-Tanf to penetrate Syrian airspace to launch strikes.
The significance of Al-Tanf was evident during the presidency of Donald Trump, who often spoke of pulling US troops out of Syria. However, the situation on the ground was more nuanced. Even as Trump made public declarations about withdrawing troops, officials within his administration, including former National Security Advisor John Bolton, ensured that key positions like Al-Tanf remained secure. Bolton stated that any withdrawal from Syria would be conditional on an agreement with Russia to replace US forces at Al-Tanf, thereby ensuring that Israeli security interests were safeguarded.
The future of the US occupation of Syria
With Trump poised to return to the White House next month, questions have resurfaced about the future of American military involvement in Syria. The expectation is that despite any renewed rhetoric about reducing military involvement, Al-Tanf will remain a key asset in maintaining US influence in Syria and the region.
In 2023, former Chief of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley visited Al-Tanf, emphasizing its importance for Israel’s security and confirming that there were no plans to withdraw. Al-Tanf will likely continue to play a key role in Washington’s West Asia strategy, even if it reduces its presence elsewhere in Syria.
The base serves as a strategic card – enabling continued influence, fostering instability, and complicating the region’s dynamics. Yet, a critical question remains: How sustainable is the US presence at Al-Tanf, given the growing resistance? With Iraqi and local Syrian factions increasingly targeting US positions, Washington’s ability to maintain control over Al-Tanf may weaken.
In time, Syria might leverage its own “Popular Resistance” to apply pressure, forcing US forces to eventually leave Syrian territory, as indicated earlier in the year with the tribal uprising in Deir Ezzor.
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By Lisa Pease | Consortium News | September 16, 2013
More than a half century ago, just after midnight on Sept. 18, 1961, the plane carrying UN Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjöld and 15 others went down in a plane crash over Northern Rhodesia (now Zambia). All 16 died, but the facts of the crash were provocatively mysterious. … continue
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