By Haidar Mustafa | The Cradle | November 30, 2024
In his speech announcing Israel’s agreement to a ceasefire with Lebanon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a direct threat to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, warning him of “playing with fire.” Those words came mere hours before armed terrorist factions from Idlib launched a shock offensive on Syrian army positions in the de-escalation zone in the western countryside of Aleppo. The operation is being led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebranded incarnation of Al-Nusra Front – or Syria’s Al-Qaeda franchise – led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, with the participation of other international terror organizations such as the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP).
The army is preparing to deter aggression
On the morning of 27 November, armed extremist groups launched violent attacks on Syrian army positions in the vicinity of the 46th Regiment and toward the villages of Orem al-Kubra, Orem al-Sughra, Basratun, Anjara, and the surrounding areas, located a short distance from the M5 Aleppo-Hama-Damascus highway.
In their first surprise attack, as part of an operation called “Deterrence of Aggression,” the militants were able to enter a number of villages that Syrian army forces had evacuated in preparation for containing the breach, which constitutes a flagrant violation of the 2019 de-escalation agreements between Turkey, Russia, and Iran.
The scope of the battles quickly expanded on the international road and into the city of Aleppo. A Turkish security source quoted by Qatari-funded Middle East Eye said that the goal of the military operation launched by HTS and its allies is the recovery of the positions gained by the Syrian forces with the support of Russia during the battles of 2017 – 2020.
The militants claim that the Syrian and Russian army’s “violations” of the de-escalation agreements – and their intensification of strikes on Idlib – prompted these military operations in order to regain their control of these areas. They say that the Syrian army’s retreat in Aleppo’s western countryside provided impetus for the militants to launch further attacks toward rural eastern Idlib.
Within three days, armed extremist groups were able to reach the heart of Aleppo and declare a curfew for 24 hours. As the confrontations intensified, Syrian and Russian warplanes launched a series of violent raids on HTS and Turkestani sites and supply lines in Darat Azza, Al-Atareb, Sarmin, and other areas. These airstrikes are still ongoing, with video footage revealing heavy losses in the ranks of the extremist factions and several media sources confirming fatalities of more than 200 members of HTS and other militant groups in the Aleppo and Idlib regions.
The expansion of air attacks by the Syrian and Russian forces led, on Thursday morning, to a lull in HTS’ field momentum as the group suffered both human and material losses. Sources on the frontline also reveal the arrival of huge military reinforcements to the main confrontation zone, which extends over an area of more than 26 kilometers in western Aleppo – Syrian troops and supplies that are planning a counterattack to restore the status quo. Military expert Haitham Hassoun explains to The Cradle that the Syrian army has regrouped in the rear lines of defense at a depth of 7 to 8 kilometers in preparation for carrying out the counterattack.
How did the preparations go?
In reality, the HTS operation was by no means a spur-of-the-moment offensive but rather a result of years-long preparations spearheaded by US and Turkish intelligence to unify the ranks of various extremist factions in Syria’s north. This project took place under the direct supervision of the Turkish army, which aimed to converge the militant groups in Idlib and the Aleppo countryside and place decision-making in the hands of mainly two parties: the so-called Syrian National Army (SNA), which is loyal to Ankara, and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria.
In this mash-up of terror outfits are the Turkestan and Uyghur “jihadist” groups, used primarily as strike forces in specific military operations, largely fulfilling the interests of their US and Turkish funders.
Military expert, Brigadier General Haitham Hassoun, confirms that preparations to launch this operation began “a long time ago,” and that the participating groups established a joint ops room about a month and a half ago. He believes that the militants benefited from “misdirection” and electronic warfare media operations carried out by Turkish intelligence to camouflage their intentions and movements and by Turkish occupation forces inside Syria during the days preceding the shock offensive. The militants further benefited from sophisticated intel that helped them exploit existing loopholes on the ground and were aware of vacuums in the Syrian army’s positions, which then led to this breach and confusion in the defense lines.
Who made the decision, and what is the goal?
Today’s scenes in Idlib and Aleppo remind Syrians of a period they thought they had put behind them after the 2016 liberation of Aleppo and the 2019 de-escalation understandings. But those hard-fought understandings had always remained fragile, given that Turkiye evaded its commitments to purge the M5 area of terrorist groups. The militancy in Syria’s north served Ankara’s interest in maintaining pressure on Damascus. It also explains this week’s armed operation – an action the Turks believe will force the Syrian government to enter negotiations under fire, especially if armed extremists re-enter Aleppo or sever the critical international route.
On the other hand, one objective of the operation may be the US decision to maintain a state of conflict in the region and redirect pressure toward Russia and its regional allies ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
As many commentators have pointed out, the military operation was launched in the direct aftermath of Netanyahu’s explicit threats in his speech this week and is likely connected to Israel’s regional war and Tel Aviv’s determination to sever the Syrian route for members of the Resistance Axis. The offensive appears to have been coordinated with the NATO-member Turkiye, under the direction of Turkish occupation authorities and intelligence services, which have for years managed and supported the various extremist groups in northern Syria.
In a preliminary estimate, what is happening is a return to the situation before 2019, a re-invasion that effectively seeks to derail all the achievements of the Astana peace process. In turn, this deserves nothing less than an equally brash and unexpected response: a Syrian military counter-offensive that not only reclaims the positions held by Syrian army forces a few days ago but one that decisively pushes all the way to Darat Izza and beyond up to the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkiye, cutting off communications routes between the militants in the Aleppo and Idlib regions, and restoring the entire governorates under Syrian government control.
What began as a shock assault may have created an opportunity to end the state of limbo in the country’s north at the end of the Syrian war, provide Damascus and its allies a way to sidestep unproductive de-escalation understandings, and hand the Syrian state a legitimate, legal and moral justification to liberate all territories from terror organizations.
Until or unless this happens, western Aleppo and eastern Idlib will remain active battlefields. However, according to informed sources, the militants are unlikely to remain in an advantageous position for long for several key reasons.
First is the imminent arrival of large Syrian military reinforcements to the area, which will not allow Aleppo to fall into the hands of foreign-backed extremists. Second, these US and Turkish-backed militant groups are less likely to achieve their goals today than in the early years of the war because of seismic political and economic shifts in Europe, which fears the revival of the Syrian conflict and another flood of refugees to its borders.
Third, Damascus has returned to the Arab fold by rejoining the Arab League and being welcomed by several Persian Gulf states. Those capitals are no longer interested in backing jihadists, resuscitating the war, or destabilizing Lebanon and Iraq, Syria’s direct and connected neighbors, at this moment. Nor are they interested in opening up the Syrian military arena to Iranian advisors or forces again.
By Eva Bartlett | RT | December 1, 2024
For the past few days, foreign-backed terrorists in Syria’s northwest have been attacking Syrian army positions in the Aleppo and Idlib countryside, and shelling civilian districts of Aleppo.
While regional media have been giving updates on these attacks and counterattacks by Syria and Russia, what is less clear is what is happening in Aleppo itself. Terrorist-aligned media claim Tahrir al-Sham (al-Qaeda re-branded) and allied terrorists have taken numerous western districts and even the city center.
But their proof – short videos showing terrorists in various areas they claim to control – was countered by videos of Syrians walking in key districts, saying things are calm. More on this later.
The following is what is known in summary about the attacks.
On Wednesday, November 27, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Turkish-backed National Army factions launched attacks in the Idlib and Aleppo countryside, in what they dubbed “Operation Deterrence of Aggression.”
According to Al-Mayadeen, as related by Syrian journalist Wassim Issa, convoys of militants, equipment and ammunition entered from the Bab al-Salam crossing with Türkiye and headed to the fighting fronts in the western Aleppo and southern Idlib countryside.
Al Mayadeen reported Tahrir al-Sham used new weapons and equipment, including Ukrainian drones, “reportedly acquired from Kiev’s intelligence services.”
Since Thursday evening, terrorists have been shelling Aleppo University dormitories, as well as districts of western Aleppo. On Friday, terrorist shelling killed four students and injured dozens.
By Friday, the Syrian Arab Army had re-taken many points breached by terrorists, Al Mayadeen reported, noting that intense fighting continues on two fronts in rural Aleppo, and that on the Idlib front, “armed groups are attempting to open a new axis after their failure to advance further toward the M5 international highway for all traffic from the south to Aleppo, through Hama and SE Idlib.”
The General Command of the Army and Armed Forces issued the following statement:
“Our armed forces were able to inflict heavy losses on the attacking organizations, inflicting hundreds of dead and wounded among their ranks, destroying dozens of vehicles and armored vehicles, and were able to shoot down and destroy seventeen drones.
…In a related context, terrorist organizations, through their platforms, publish misleading information, news and video clips aimed at terrorizing citizens. The General Command of the Army and Armed Forces warns our fellow citizens not to accept this news and misinformation, and to receive what is issued by the national media and its official platforms.”
As of late Friday, citing the Russian Coordination Center in Syria, Al Mayadeen reported that more than 600 terrorists had been killed. This update went on to detail Syrian and Russian airstrikes on terrorists in the northern Aleppo and Idlib countryside.
These attacks, apparently supported by Türkiye, the US, and Israel, mark the latest effort to destabilize Syria and weaken the ‘Axis of Resistance’ against Israel. It is of course notable that these attacks commenced just after the so-called ceasefire between the Lebanese Resistance, Hezbollah, and Israel (which began violating the ceasefire almost immediately, as Israel has done with virtually every ceasefire in the past).
One possible reason for Türkiye’s involvement could be to pressure Syrian President Bashar Assad into reconsidering his stance on normalization talks with Ankara. Assad previously rejected any such talks while Turkish forces remain in Syria, and according to some analysts. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could have helped escalate military action to coerce Assad to change his mind.
Another motivation for the attack could be to cut Lebanese Hezbollah off from supply lines during the ceasefire with Israel. From Damascus, British journalist Vanessa Beeley wrote: “This attack has been spoken about and planned for since the beginning of the Israeli aggression against Lebanon… Now Syria will be the target to destroy weapons supply lines and manufacturing facilities that would rearm Hezbollah during the ceasefire. There will be attempts to destroy the land bridge infrastructure that brings materials from Iran, through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. This includes essential humanitarian relief supply lines. Syria is the beating heart of the Resistance and must be protected at all costs.”
Attempts to resuscitate the Syrian ‘revolution’
Unsurprisingly, there are calls on social media for President Assad to be removed; the same calls heard during the Western-orchestrated media psyop which saw ignorant people around the world supporting a very bloody “revolution” in 2011.
It was never a revolution, and it was never (for Syrians) about Assad (who is overwhelmingly supported). What kind of revolution destroys its own culture, heritage and civilians, and partners with the US and Israel, among others?
On one of my four trips to Aleppo in 2016 alone, in November, before Aleppo was liberated from terrorist forces, the head of forensic medicine at a local hospital, Dr. Zaher Hajo, told me that since the occupation of Aleppo in 2012, 10,750 civilians had been killed by terrorists, 40% of whom were women and children.
On that same visit, I met three prominent Sunni leaders who, according to the priest who introduced us, were considered ‘infidels’ by al-Nusra and company because they didn’t follow their distorted terrorist ideology. One of them, Dr. Kukeh said: “Those who are killing the Sunnis are the same who claim that they are defending the Sunnis. The shells that hit us daily are sent by them.”
Dr. Kukeh, who said he named his oldest son after Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, “because I love that man,” explained that in 2012 he was living in eastern Aleppo when terrorists began to occupy districts there. He was targeted for assassination because he did not agree with the terrorists’ ideology.
The Aleppo university dorms which were targeted recently were likewise routinely targeted in 2016. At the time, they had for four years been housing well over 10,000 internally displaced Syrians from areas of Aleppo and its countryside, including from areas occupied by the terrorists.
In subsequent visits in 2017 and years after, I saw the remnants of the terrorists’ occupation of eastern regions of Aleppo (underground prisons with solitary confinement cells), took testimonies of Syrian civilians on life under terrorist rule, and later, saw the city begin to rebuild and flourish, with businesses reopening, ancient markets being restored, life bustling around the famous citadel (during the reign of the terrorists, walking near it meant almost certainly being sniped dead) and atop the citadel.
The city that Western and Gulf corporate media claimed “fell” when it was liberated from al-Qaeda, ISIS and their co-terrorists came back to life under the rule of the Syrian government.
Current chaos: Aleppo occupied?
Throughout the fighting, there have been conflicting reports of terrorists taking parts of Aleppo. As I wrote at the beginning, photos and videos which appeared to show a terrorist presence in western Aleppo neighborhoods and even the city center aren’t proof of terrorists having taken districts.
It isn’t difficult for sleeper cell terrorists to pop up, take these photos and videos, and leave. Time will show which of their claims are true and which are part of psychological warfare to demoralize Syrians and turn them against their army and even against Russia.
Recall the General Command of the Army’s warning regarding misinformation. Making definitive declarations about the condition of Aleppo and surrounding region, without proof, is irresponsible and unhelpful. In a clickbait age where everyone wants to be the first to post “BREAKING” followed by some unverified soundbite, discerning the truth is complicated.
If the unthinkable happens and parts of Aleppo are re-occupied by terrorists no different from and even including ISIS, they will ultimately be defeated by Syria, Russia, and their allies, just as they were before.
Eva Bartlett is a Canadian independent journalist. She has spent years on the ground covering conflict zones in the Middle East, especially in Syria and Palestine (where she lived for nearly four years).
By Ilya Tsukanov – Sputnik – 30.11.2024
The US military is “locked in a dangerous stalemate” in its campaign against the Houthis, proving “unable to effectively stop the rebels from attacking ships,” and at the same time “unlikely” to be given a free hand for all-out war against the group, a top mainstream US business publication has suggested.
“The American military has led a Western naval coalition into battle against the Houthis to curb their relentless attacks, but a year of intense combat has brought the US no closer to ending the threat posed by the rebels – and, for now, a more aggressive approach doesn’t appear to be the desired course,” Business Insider suggested, citing the sentiments of US officials and experts, including the Biden administration’s top Yemen envoy.
“The restrained approach to the ongoing Houthi crisis leaves the US military engaged in combat operations without a clear path to victory,” BI said, pointing to the toll Houthi attacks have had on Red Sea shipping, which up until a year ago accounted for up to 15% of all maritime trade.
Then there’s the impact on the US military’s much vaunted reputation – the limits to which have been made clear over the past year amid its inability to degrade the potential of a group armed with $20,000 drones, homemade ballistic missiles and Soviet-era air defense systems.
“The threat still persists, and there doesn’t seem to be much abating that,” former US Central Command chief Gen. (ret.) Joseph Votel said. Instead, US operations “have been clearly focused on trying to defend ourselves and going after launch sites, production sites, storage sites, maybe some command and control sites – but none of that seems to be deterring the Houthis at all,” Votel complained.
“Allowing the Houthis to protract their gradual escalation campaign is a much more dangerous policy choice for the US in the long run than a more decisive military effort would have been,” Brian Carter, Middle East analyst at the DC-based American Enterprise Institute neocon think tank, argued, highlighting the impact Houthi persistence has had on the US’s perceived strength abroad.
Gen. Votel added that the more assets the US deploys against the Houthis, the less there will be for the Pentagon’s other global priorities, including challenging China in the Pacific.
A recent report by Brown University’s Costs of War Project estimated that the US has spent over $2.5 billion on the anti-Houthi campaign over the past year – which includes the cost of stationing multi-billion dollar carrier strike groups in the region, and the $4 million+ apiece missiles the US has fired to take down Houthi drones.
US Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Bill LaPlante told a defense forum earlier this month that as a missile expert, he was “shocked” by the Houthis’ increasingly advanced missile capabilities, saying the militia has proven able to churn out new arms that “can do things that are just amazing.”
Last month, an article in an issue of West Point military academy’s Combating Terrorism Center Sentinel journal revealed that Houthi projectiles nearly landed hits against a US supercarrier and a missile destroyer over the course of Red Sea operations earlier this year.
Israel too has seen the growing power of Houthi missile and drone capabilities, facing attacks by large, airplane-style UAVs and a new hypersonic ballistic missile the Houthis have called the ‘Palestine-2’.
The Houthis have linked the end of their Red Sea campaign to a halt in the year-plus long war in Gaza, and recently urged President-Elect Trump to “fulfill his commitment to Arab voters and supporters of Gaza” and pressure Israel to stop the fighting in the besieged enclave, and halt American aggression against Yemen itself, emphasizing that the US was “paying an economic and military price” for its role as Israel’s lackey.
“The question remains: will Trump continue with the same policy and will the American aggression against Yemen continue? If it continues, the American economy will suffer more losses,” a militia source told Newsweek earlier this month.
Despite being sanctioned and designated a terrorist organization by the Trump administration, the Houthis have been among the traditional international adversaries of the US to have expressed cautious optimism over the prospects of Trump’s return to the White House.
Last week, Ali Larijani, a senior advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader, echoed the Houthis’ sentiments, suggesting “the question is whether the America of the Trump era sees its interests in continuing the behavior of the Democrats – who pulled America down in the region and destroyed its reputation… or do they want to make a turn in accordance with America’s national interests,” including by putting an end to “warmongering in the region.”
RT | November 30, 2024
The Syrian military is not allowing terrorists that launched a surprise offensive on Aleppo to establish well-entrenched positions in the city and is gathering forces for a counterattack, the country’s General Command has said. It admitted, however, that dozens of its troops have been killed in the fighting.
Earlier this week, the Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS) terrorist group, an offshoot of Jabhat al-Nusra, and its allies launched the first major attack in Syria in years, capturing large swaths of land in Idlib and Aleppo and pushing back government forces.
In a statement on Saturday, the Syrian General Command said that the attack was “supported by thousands of foreign terrorists, heavy weapons, and a large number of drones.” It said that the military has fought battles over an area exceeding 100km in a bid to halt their advance.
Damascus acknowledged that “dozens of our forces were killed and others were wounded during the battles,” without giving exact figures.
The Command added that the terrorist forces have been able “to enter large parts of Aleppo city” but failed “to establish their positions due to the continued concentrated and strong strikes by our armed forces.” The military is also expecting reinforcements to arrive for a counterattack, the statement added. Authorities are making every effort to ensure the safety of people and to regain control of the entire area, it said.
Meanwhile, unverified videos circulating on social media appear to show the militants in the center of Aleppo, with one clip depicting an armed man waving a flag at the gates of the city’s historic citadel.
The Syrian military’s response to the attack was backed by Russian airstrikes. According to Oleg Ignasyuk, deputy head of the Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria, Russian and Syrian forces have eliminated about 600 militants over the past two days.
Moscow intervened militarily in Syria in 2015, helping the government of Bashar Assad inflict heavy defeats on numerous terrorist groups, most notably al-Nusra and Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS). Russia maintains a significant military footprint in the country, with bases in Hmeimim and Tartus.
Sputnik – 29.11.2024
The sudden escalation in Syria where anti-government groups launched a sudden offensive towards Aleppo betrays the involvement of several foreign powers, including Israel and the United States, says Seyed Mohammad Marandi, political analyst and professor at Tehran University.
“We see thousands of foreign fighters affiliated to al-Qaeda from across Central Asia,” Marandi tells Sputnik. “They’ve been mobilized and well trained to carry out this assault.”
The offensive, he points out, takes place “literally a day after Netanyahu said he needs the ceasefire in order to deal with the so-called Iranian threat,” and it appears that the goal of this offensive is “to cut off Syria from the Axis of Resistance in order to isolate Lebanon.”
“Obviously, this is being done in coordination with the United States. The whole dirty war in Syria since 2011 was led by the United States,” Marandi adds. “We know that Jake Sullivan back then, who is now the national security adviser of Biden, said in an email to Hillary Clinton on February 12th, 2012, that in Syria, al Qaeda is on our side.”
Given the long history of the US’ association with terrorist groups in the region and previous efforts by Washington to “create a Salafist entity between Syria and Iraq to isolate Syria,” there is no doubt that the United States and its allies “are a part of this conspiracy against Syria,” the analyst concludes.
That said, Marandi identifies the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the “number one beneficiary” of the current crisis in Aleppo.
“Netanyahu needs war, and he only accepted a ceasefire under a great deal of pressure. So no one has faith in the Israelis. The Israelis have always violated commitments,” Marandi says. “After all, it is carrying out a holocaust in Gaza, a regime that carries out the Holocaust and continues to do so in front of the eyes of the world after 14 months is not a regime that can be trusted for anything.”
Syrian military expert Mahmoud Abdel Salyam offers a similar take on the subject, blaming Israel for the current crisis and claiming that Tel Aviv’s plans threaten the security situation in the region.
“Israel essentially wants to solidify its position in the region after the ceasefire in Lebanon,” he says. “So Tel Aviv has no intention of stopping – it wants to sow discord among the other players in the region and to force them to react to such challenges.”
Salyam does note, however, that other global players who are interested in “changing the power balance in the Middle East” will undoubtedly capitalize on this situation.
“Some countries, for example, may use the weakening of the Arab republic to bolster their influence by supporting radical and extremist groups that Israel tries to use in Syria,” he says. “But such dangerous actions will lead to unpredictable consequences, for these countries and for their allies.”
The Cradle | November 28, 2024
Israel is examining the launch of a “pilot program” that could see US private security firms replace the army in northern Gaza to “accompany food and medicine convoys” for Palestinians who remain in the devastated region, according to a report by Israeli daily Globes.
Among the top competitors for the multi-million dollar contract are Constellis, the direct successor to infamous mercenary company Blackwater, and Orbis, a little-known South Carolina company run by former generals that has worked with the Pentagon for 20 years.
Officials say the pilot program for north Gaza aims to “prevent Hamas or other gangs from taking over the aid trucks and free the IDF soldiers from the dangerous mission.”
In recent weeks, Gaza’s interior ministry established a new police force to deal with groups of bandits and gangs that have been raiding humanitarian aid shipments and blackmailing international organizations in the southern Gaza Strip.
The UN has said these gangs are likely “benefiting from a passive if not active benevolence” or “protection” from the Israeli army.
In October, a third US security firm – Global Delivery Company (GDC) – which describes itself as “Uber for warzones” – claimed to be working with another firm to create and manage “humanitarian bubbles” in Gaza.
GDC is run by Mordechai Kahane, an Israeli businessman who worked with Israeli intelligence during the war on Syria to arm extremist groups seeking to topple the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Although no official figure exists about the size of the contracts being offered by Tel Aviv for these mercenary firms, Globes cites Lt. Col. Yochanan Zoraf, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and former advisor on Arab affairs in the Israeli army, as saying the figure will likely reach “billions of shekels per year.”
“These are not companies that will manage the daily lives of the residents,” Zoraf claims, adding that “peripheral responsibility for the defense of [north Gaza] as well as the civil responsibility itself” falls at Israel’s feet.
The former army officer also says Tel Aviv will likely “ask that the US – or an outside party – finance the program.”
On Tuesday, Israel Hayom reported that the pilot program has yet to receive approval from the security cabinet “due to legal difficulties in defining the occupation” based on international law.
“In order to circumvent the legal obstacles, the security services are examining bringing in external funding from humanitarian aid organizations or foreign countries for the [mercenary firms], which costs tens of millions of dollars to operate,” the report adds.
Since the start of the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza, the Israeli government has turned to mercenaries to overcome an enlistment crisis. This includes cooperation with German intelligence to recruit asylum seekers from Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria.
“Over the past seven months, the Values Initiative Association and the German–Israeli Association (DIG) have worked to enlist these refugees from war-torn Muslim-majority countries as mercenaries for Israel. Offered monthly salaries ranging between €4,000 to €5,000 and fast-tracked German citizenship, many have joined the fight. Reports suggest that around 4,000 immigrants were naturalized between September and October alone,” writes The Cradle columnist Mohamed Nader al-Omari.
By Ramzy Baroud | MEMO | November 27, 2024
“Imperialism leaves behind germs of rot which we must clinically detect and remove from our land but from our minds as well,” wrote Frantz Fanon in The Wretched of the Earth (1961). What the iconic anti-colonial philosopher and psychiatrist was essentially arguing is that the mind must be decolonised first, in order for the undoing of colonialism to succeed in all aspects of our liberation.
Many in the Global South, but especially intellectuals and analysts concerned with Middle East affairs, are still struggling with their relationship with the United States. Although all signs indicate a rapid decline of America’s global status, many among our intelligentsia, possibly unwittingly, still believe that Washington holds all the cards, and that whoever controls the White House must naturally also rule the world.
Of course, US domestic and foreign policies are relevant to global affairs, as financial decisions by the US Federal Reserve, for example, will affect US-global trade volumes, and will have an impact on the interest or disinterest in purchasing US treasury bonds. Some countries that are keen on standing at an equal distance between the US and China often jockey to refine their positions and to protect themselves in case of seismic political changes in the US.
The vibe radiating from many in the Middle East is that the doomsday scenario is real, and that the big war is upon us.
However, they ignore the fact that for many nations around the world, from Gaza to Lebanon to Ukraine to Sudan and elsewhere, wars have already arrived, many of which are bankrolled by western funds and political blank cheques. To warn of war while tens of millions are already suffering the outcomes of western-funded wars reflects the degree of desensitisation and opportunism of the followers of western order.
Some of those crying over the supposedly imminent doom had initially presented the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, as the best worst-case option for Palestinians, Arabs and Muslims. Although they may have acknowledged the genocide in Gaza, and even criticised the Joe Biden administration for enabling it, they recoiled at the mere suggestion that the Democrats must be punished for their many sins in the Middle East and beyond.
Another crowd presented Donald Trump as the saviour, the strong man who, with a stroke of a pen, will end all wars, the one in Gaza included. They cited the man’s repeated claim that, “I’m not going to start a war, I’m going to stop the wars.” They even went on to argue that Trump, who would be serving a second and final term in office, is now immune to political manipulation from the pro-Israel lobby and all other pressures.
Trump won, of course.
His crushing defeat of the Democrats on all fronts, including in the popular vote, indicates that he would have won regardless of those who considered ending the war in Gaza to be a top political priority. However, the early announcements that Trump’s administration come January will be a who’s who of the pro-Israel Republican circle has reignited the debate about the “bigger genocide” awaiting Palestinians and other scare-mongering tactics.
Both sides of this inconsequential debate conveniently ignore obvious facts: that America’s ruling elites are rooted in pro-Israel political allegiances; that although there might be a difference in style, US foreign policy under Democratic Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Trump’s future hire, Marco Rubio, is likely to be identical; and that the Biden-Harris administration gave Israel all the help it needed to sustain its wars in the Middle East over the course of 13 months and counting.
This stifling debate, however, misses some of the most critical points that should be discussed, and urgently so. For example, the Middle East region is not a single political monolith. It has its own political calculations, conflicts, alliances and options that include other political heavyweights, such as China and Russia, among others.
Moreover, several Middle Eastern countries are joining the increasingly influential BRICS alliance. The latter is not just a trade club, but also a powerful economic alliance with a strong political discourse to match.
Thus, the future and survival of the Middle East does not hinge on US economic policies.
Finally, the war in Gaza is a war that also involves the Palestinians, the Lebanese and their Arab and international allies. The people of occupied Palestine and Lebanon have agency, choices and strategies that are not wholly dependent on the ideological identity or political inclinations of a lone American ensconced in the White House.
If the political views of the US president were indeed the most decisive aspect in the fate and future of the Palestinian people, Palestinian aspirations would have been suppressed decades ago due to America’s inherent pro-Israel bias. They weren’t, not because of any compassion on the part of US administrations, but due to the sumud, resilience, of the Palestinian people.
It is time that we abandon the archaic thinking regarding our collective colonial past, or present, that views western leaders as our masters, and our people as mere subjects, struggling to survive, imploring, though never obtaining, prudent western foreign policies.
The world is changing, vastly, and it is time for us to change as well. Fanon gave us the cure decades ago: We must clinically detect and remove the rot, not only from our land but from our minds as well.
By Ekaterina Blinova – Sputnik – 27.11.2024
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday there are three reasons why Israel concluded a ceasefire deal with Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah: to focus on Iran; to replenish weaponry stocks; and to isolate Hamas.
“It is not clear how Israel would focus more on Iran,” Dr Marco Carnelos, a former Italian diplomat and Middle East adviser of Prime Ministers Prodi and Berlusconi, tells Sputnik. “Probably the Israeli prime minister hopes that with the incoming Trump administration a direct military pressure on Iran might be increased together with the US.”
Dr. Tamer Qarmout, associate professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, dubs Netanyahu’s focus on Iran as “cheap talk.”
“How would the Israelis engage with Iran if they were not able to eliminate Hezbollah,” Qarmout asks while talking to Sputnik. “We’ll have to see the new [Trump] administration’s take on Iran. But if this happens for whatever reason, this means a serious regional or even could be a global war.”
The experts allege Netanyahu has been cornered by the military leadership over heavy losses sustained by the Israeli Defense Forces in southern Lebanon, and snubbed his hawkish cabinet members to implement the deal.
“My feeling is that the Israeli military echelon cornered Netanyahu on this point because on the battleground in Southern Lebanon the Israeli Army was able to advance only a few km and incurred in severe losses. Israel erased Hezbollah’s leadership but it did not defeat the movement on the ground… And because Hezbollah has not lost the battle, by default it will be perceived as the winner,” Carnelos says.
It is clear that Netanyahu will use the “breather” to double down on attacking Hamas in the Gaza Strip, according to Qarmout: “Israel would be able to shift its military power on to sources to continue its genocidal war on Gaza,” he says.
Still, the future of the ceasefire deal is hanging in the balance, according to the pundits.
“The devil is still in the details. We still have 60 days to see if this agreement will hold,” Qarmout concludes.
By Viktor Mikhin – New Eastern Outlook – November 26, 2024
According to a report published by the Financial Times, Trump’s new team intends to ‘bankrupt’ Iran during his second presidential term. The report, citing a national security expert close to the new team, states that executive orders targeting Iran, mainly its oil exports, could be signed on the first day Trump takes office.
The so-called ‘maximum pressure campaign’ is a set of measures imposed against Iran in 2018 after Trump brazenly and illegally withdrew Washington from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The agreement, signed in 2015, limited Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for an easing of economic and financial sanctions. Trump called the agreement a ‘disaster’ only because it was signed by Democratic President Barack Obama. He allegedly stated that he was going to make sure that Iran would never receive nuclear weapons, while promising to limit Iran’s regional influence.
In other words, the world has a very dangerous precedent in the Middle East: on the one hand, Israel has completely illegally developed and put into service nuclear weapons and their means of delivery and, on the other hand, Trump is trying to limit – and, moreover, prohibit – Iran from developing peaceful nuclear energy and oppose Tehran’s relations with its neighbours. What kind of democracy is this and what exactly does Trump mean by the word ‘democracy’? This is no longer democracy, rather a medieval-type dictatorship: if I want to, I will allow it, but it is better not to allow it at all.
What was Trump’s goal previously?
Since 1979, Iran has constantly faced US sanctions. The Trump administration’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign was not so much about inventing new limitations as about dramatically expanding the scope and viciously tightening compliance with previous or existing limitations.
Following the unabashed withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA (an international document), Trump immediately reinstated sanctions against Iran’s energy, shipping, shipbuilding, automotive and oil sectors in accordance with a decree issued on August 6, 2018. The key difference was the aggressive implementation of so-called ‘secondary sanctions’, which punished foreign organisations for doing business with Iran, regardless of whether these transactions violated their own domestic laws. The aim was to put significant pressure on international players to comply with US sanctions. Apparently, Trump considered himself a liege lord and all others to be his vassals, the purpose of whom was to fulfill Trump’s will.
In May, 2019, the Trump administration dealt a blow to Iran’s metallurgical industry (the second largest source of export revenue) by tightening sanctions on the production of iron, steel, aluminum and copper. This included well-designed sanctions against any foreign financial institutions facilitating large transactions related to these industries. At the same time, Washington was completely uninterested in the opinions and interests of other parties involved in peaceful trade with Iran.
The third major decree issued by Trump was directed against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and any organisations or individuals conducting financial transactions with it. The stated goal was to limit Iran’s production of ballistic missiles, a weapon that, according to then-US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook, existed only in Photoshop. Nevertheless, Trump hastened to impose severe sanctions on the IRGC.
The new Biden administration that came to power, contrary to expectations, did not put an end to Trump’s policy. According to Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, all sanctions were to remain in force and hundreds more new ones were added to them. It is incomprehensible how one strong and arrogant country is trying to rule the whole world and establish its own rules of life and trade that are only beneficial to it.
Did Trump’s policy bear fruit?
“The efficacy of US sanctions against a foreign government is measured by the economic damage not caused”, said Amir Ali Abolfat, an expert on North American affairs, “and the extent to which sanctions achieve their political goals and change the behaviour of the target government”. An analysis of statistics before the start of the ‘maximum pressure’ campaign shows that, although Trump made it more difficult for Iran to earn money from exporting oil and metals, he failed to reduce them so much that a brave and persistent Iran had to change its policy.
“Iran produces strategically important goods”, Abolfat explained. “As long as there is demand, these products will find their market. Although Iran no longer sells oil to Europe, it has begun supplying it to China, as evidenced by increased sales to that country, which is resisting pressure and US hegemony. The same principle applies to the export of Iranian metals”.
There is no doubt that Trump and Biden have created great difficulties for Iran, but did they manage to achieve their goals? Absolutely not. Iran’s uranium enrichment rate has increased from 3% to 60% and its military potential has expanded significantly over the past seven years. Moreover, Tehran is successfully developing friendly ties with its neighbours and has managed to create a so-called Axis of Resistance, which successfully opposes the United States and Israel in the region.
As for domestic needs, Iran has successfully reduced its dependence on European partners and former allies (such as Korea and Japan) by finding alternative suppliers. The departure of European automakers has led to a sharp increase in Chinese car imports, making Iran a major market. In addition, Iranian engineers and experts have independently completed projects to develop gas and oil fields that previously depended on Western cooperation. This self-confidence eventually spread to other industries previously dependent on imports, such as the food industry and medicine.
Sanctions and nothing else?
Central to Trump’s policy in the Middle East from 2017 to 2021 was an unsuccessful attempt to drive a wedge between Arab countries and Iran, while simultaneously positioning Israel as a key regional security partner.
Now this approach is much less viable. Iran’s improved relations with countries, such as Saudi Arabia, and ongoing efforts to normalise ties with others, such as Egypt, undermine this strategy. In addition, the successful Hamas operation on October 7 completely dispelled all notions of Israel’s invincibility and the actions of the Israeli regime to destroy the Palestinians made the continuation of the normalisation agreements concluded within the scope of Trump’s ‘Abraham Accords’ unlikely.
Experts believe that the only other untested option – the military option – to which hotheads in the United States and Israel are inclined, is fraught with enormous risk. Such actions could lead to devastating consequences for the West, potentially widespread disruption of oil supplies, attacks on Western bases in the Middle East and fundamental changes to Iran’s nuclear policy. Ultimately, Washington must recognise that enormous pressure alone will not help it achieve its goals with regard to Iran. To solve the US’ problems, Iran’s problems must also be acknowledged. It is only through returning to the JCPOA and sitting at the negotiating table that the most difficult tasks in the region can be solved. Iran is ready for this and has expressed this more than once. Is the ‘peacemaker’ Trump ready for this or is he only thinking of using force?
Inside China Business | November 20, 2024
Protracted wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are draining the US arsenal of interceptor missiles. The problem is especially severe in Palestine and in the Red Sea, where dozens of missiles are launched monthly against incoming rockets and drones. Pentagon officials are urgently pushing weapons makers to produce more, but are bumping up against capacity and CAPEX constraints. In another blow, China just announced an export ban on dual-use metals that are critical to the manufacture of missiles and other aerospace applications in the defense sector. Magnesium and tungsten, in particular, are two key materials necessary for the production of missiles, but where China effectively has monopolized the refining and production. China’s export ban will take effect on 1 December.
Resources and links:
Wall Street Journal, Pentagon Runs Low on Air-Defense Missiles as Demand Surges https://www.wsj.com/politics/national…
Nikkei Asia, China to tighten export curbs on critical metals ahead of Trump’s return https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Sup…
Six Strategic Metals Widely Used in the Military Industry https://www.samaterials.com/content/s…
Magnesium in Defence https://www.magnium.com.au/defence-metal
Forbes, The Titanium Supply Chain For The Aerospace Industry Goes Through Russia https://www.forbes.com/sites/willyshi…
By Alastair Crooke | Strategic Culture Foundation | November 22, 2024
More than just a dangerous provocation aimed at Russia, the ATACM and Storm Shadow attacks represent an attempt to turn foreign policy on its head.
“The Deep State whispered to Trump: ‘You cannot withstand the storm’. Trump whispered back: “I am the storm”. The war is on. The Deep State has launched a war of disruption to disable Trump’s ‘storm’. This week’s ATACM strike was but one part to an inter-agency counter-insurgency – a political strike directed at Trump; so too are all the inter-agency false narratives attributed to the Trump camp; and so too, the escalating provocations directed at Iran.
Be assured the Five Eyes are full participants in the counter-insurgency. Macron and Starmer openly conspired together in Paris ahead of the U.S. announcement to promote the ATACMS strike. The inter-agency grandees clearly are very fearful. They must worry that Trump may expose the ‘Russia Hoax’ (that Trump in 2016 was a Russian ‘asset’) and put them in jeopardy.
But Trump understands what’s afoot:
“We need peace without delay … The foreign policy establishment keeps trying to pull the world into conflict. The greatest threat to Western civilization today is not Russia. It’s probably more than anything else ourselves… There must be a complete commitment to dismantling the entire Globalist Neo-con establishment that is perpetually dragging us into endless wars, pretending to fight for freedom and democracy abroad while they turn us into a Third World country and a Third World dictatorship right here at home. The State Department, the Defense bureaucracy, the intelligence services and all of the rest need to be completely overhauled and reconstituted. To fire the Deep Staters and put America first – we have to put America First”.
Whilst the long-range ATACM launch on ‘deep Russian pre-2014 territory’ is no game-changer – it will not change the course of the war (ATACMS regularly are – at 90% – downed by Russian Air Defences); the salience of this act however, is not strategic; rather, it lies with the crossing into the realm of direct NATO attacks on Russia.
Colonel Doug MacGregor reports that two sources are telling him that “Russian nuclear rocket forces are on full alert. They are at the highest level of readiness ever achieved. It suggests that Russia has taken this crossing of the line very seriously”.
Yes, it was a provocation, and President Putin will respond appropriately. He has to – but not necessarily through nuclear escalation. Why? Because the war in Ukraine is moving rapidly in his direction, with Russian forces closing-in on the Dnieper east bank. Effectively, facts on the ground will be the outcome determinant, leaving little point to external mediation.
But more than just a dangerous provocation aimed at Russia, the ATACM and Storm Shadow attacks represent an attempt to turn foreign policy – literally – on its head. Instead of policy being aimed directly at a rising foreign adversary threatening U.S. hegemony, it is being transformed into a loaded weapon locked onto America’s domestic war. It is aimed specifically at Trump – to ‘hog tie’ him in, and to divert his attention to wars that he does not want.
Logic suggests that Trump would want to keep clear of Netanyahu’s scheming for a war against Iran. But the ‘Israel Firsters’ and the Lobby (as Professor Jeffrey Sachs argues) long have had effective control over Congress and the U.S. military – more than does the President. Explains Sachs:
“Because the Zionist Lobby is so powerful, Netanyahu basically has had control over the Pentagon to fight wars on behalf of Israeli extremism. The war in Iraq in 2003 was a Netanyahu War. The attempt to overthrow Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the overthrow of Moamar Gaddafi – All were ‘Netanyahu Wars’”.
The important point is that Netanyahu can ‘do what he does’ because it was always planned this way – a plan that has been 50 years in execution. The ‘Israel First’ strategy was fully embraced by Scoop Jackson (a two-times Presidential candidate). And just so the policy could not be rolled back, Scoop insisted on Zionists staffing the State Department, and that neo-cons and Zionists hold the reins at the NSC. That same pattern continues until today.
At bottom lies the ultimate boondoggle by which the political class of both U.S. parties become wealthy and afford the campaign costs of remaining legislators: “It’s quite a dandy deal that the Israel Lobby or the Zionist Lobby puts in, say, a hundred million dollars into campaigns and it gets trillions out –trillions, not billions, trillions out [in government] expenditures. And so, when Netanyahu speaks, it’s bizarre to me, but it is not Trump who is appointing or naming [those ‘Israel Firsters’ who are part of his Team, but Netanyahu]”, Sachs says.
When Netanyahu describes Trump’s ‘Israel First’ nominations as his ‘dream U.S. team’, the explanation is not difficult to see. On the one hand, Trump has a ‘Revolution’ to conduct in America and wants his nominations to office approved. And, on the other, Netanyahu has a further war he wants the U.S. to fight for him.
“The ‘Big Ugly’ was always a description of the battle that few understood”, another commentator notes:
“The Senate is factually the core of republican opposition to MAGA and President Trump. The visible battle … consumes the most attention. However, it is the less-visible battle against the entrenched ideological Republicans that proves to be the hardest”.
“The Republicans in the upper chamber will not relinquish power easily. They have a multitude of weapons to use against the (Trump) insurgency … We are seeing this play out now in the alignment of Republican Senators who stand in opposition to Trump’s nomination of Matt Gaetz as Attorney General, [as] this recent report [explains]”.
“The basic outline is that the senate leadership will reluctantly support Matt Gaetz for Main Justice, where ‘support’ means they will not directly oppose; in exchange for the nomination of FBI Director Mike Rogers [a co-founder of the ‘Never Trump’ group] to defend inter-agency interests at FBI”.
The prospective Republican Senate Leader, John Thune, will play his cards carefully in order to extract maximum damage . He has leverage by trying to connect Trump to Netanyahu’s carnage in the region.
Thune, whilst announcing huge quantities of weapons for Israel, said:
“To Our Allies in Israel, and to the Jewish People Around the world, my message to you is this: Reinforcements are on the way. In six weeks, Republicans will reclaim the Senate Majority, and we will make clear that the United States Congress stands squarely In Israel’s Corner”.
Trump will need to play his cards carefully, too. Since, for his purposes, the absolute priority are his two domestic wars: First, “dismantling the entire Globalist Neocon Establishment”, and secondly, ending the out-of-control government expenditure that has bloated the Deep State boondoggle and turned the U.S. real economy into a shadow of its former self.
Trump needs those radical reform nominations to pass, even if he has to sacrifice one or two to secure Senate approval for the others. The Israel First nominees, needless to add, will be approved seamlessly.
Of the two ‘entanglement’ threats to Trump’s reform agenda, Russian escalation is the lesser of the two. The Ukraine war is motoring steadily towards some form of dénoument. One that works for Russia. Putin is in the driving seat, and does not need a major war with NATO. Nor does Putin need Trump’s ‘art of the deal’. A resolution of some sort will occur without him.
However, Trump’s role will be important subsequently to define a new border between the security interests of the Atlanticists and those of the Asian heartland (including China and Iran).
The other putative war – Iran – is the more dangerous to Trump. Jewish political influence and the Lobby has taken the U.S. into multiple disastrous wars before. And now, Netanyahu desperately needs a war and he is not alone. Much of Israel is clamouring for war that would end ‘all the fronts’ facing it. There is a profound conviction in this prospect as the solution and the ‘Great Victory’ that Netanyahu and Israel so desperately need.
The ground has been dug-over, both by propaganda that Iran’s nuclear programme is ‘staggeringly vulnerable’ (which it isn’t), and by the media’s onslaught that replays the meme that to attack Iran now represents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, with Hizbullah and Hamas already weakened. War with Iran – totally erroneously – is thus being sold as an ‘easy war’.
There is an unshakeable certitude that it must be so. ‘We are strong, and Iran is weak’.
Who will roll-back the Israel Firsters? They have the momentum and the fervour. A war against Iran will fare badly for Israel and the U.S. The wide ramifications likely will precipitate precisely the severe financial and market crisis that could derail Trump’s ‘Storm’.
Press TV – November 22, 2024
A ranking Iranian diplomat has strongly discouraged Western countries from resorting to pressure, intimidation, and confrontational approach against the country over its legitimate and peaceful nuclear energy activities.
Seeking recourse to the above measures “does not amount to adoption of a sustainable and credible course, and [application of such methods] will eventually hit a dead end,” Mohsen Naziri Asl, Iran’s permanent representative at the United Nations office in Vienna, said on Friday.
“The Islamic Republic is [rather] prepared for joining positive interaction through dialog and constructive cooperation towards potential achievement of a sustainable solution [to standing issues].”
The remarks came after the Board of Governors of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), adopted an anti-Iranian resolution based on a proposal that had been forwarded by the UK, France, and Germany. The resolution reiterated the trio and their allies’ accusations against the Islamic Republic of insufficient cooperation with the IAEA.
In chorus with the United States and others, the threesome European states have been taking numerous similar measures against Iran in line with the accusations that run counter to the standing status of the country and the agency’s cooperation, which has even increased in frequency and quality over the past years.
The ongoing confrontational approach on the part of the West comes, while it was the US that broke off its internationally-endorsed commitments to Iran by unilaterally and illegally leaving a 2015 nuclear agreement between the Islamic Republic and world countries and returning the sanctions that the deal had lifted.
The European trio, which were likewise signatories to the deal, meanwhile, failed to return Washington to the accord, despite their repeated insistence that they would do so.
Naziri considered the US’s illegal withdrawal from the deal to be the principal reason behind the deal’s current unfavorable status, noting that Washington “has not stopped short of taking any measure to destroy the deal.”
He also reminded the European parties of their refusal to live up to their commitments under the accord.
The official also pointed to the retaliatory measures that Iran has been taking in response to the US’s withdrawal, and the European countries’ and the IAEA’s confrontational attitude, which, most recently, saw the country activating its advanced centrifuges.
He cited Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s repeated statements, during which the officials asserted that the Islamic Republic would walk back its legal remedial steps if the American sanctions were effectively and verifiably annulled and the nuclear deal’s other parties returned to performing their contractual duties.
Naziri, therefore, advised the European sides “not to repeat their unsuccessful courses of action of the past.”
Separately, he strongly condemned the European countries’ recent sanctions against the Iranian national carrier and shipping company, considering the bans to be in violation of the nuclear deal’s “spirit and text.”
“We consider these [economic] measures to be in contradiction with the commitments that could serve as the foundation of any future interaction.”
The official also denounced the European trio for ignoring their duty towards lifting the sanctions that they have illegally imposed over Iran’s missile program, which they have to lift under their commitment to the nuclear deal’s sunset clauses.
“One must stress that, in line with an announcement that has been made by the UN Secretariat, Iran’s missile program will no longer be subject to the restrictions that have been imposed by the UN Security Council.”
Naziri again asserted that the Islamic Republic was ready for positive interaction as long as the other parties to the nuclear deal proved their political will and commitment to the accord by not tying negotiations that address the agreement’s potential revival to irrelevant issues.
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By Lisa Pease | Consortium News | September 16, 2013
More than a half century ago, just after midnight on Sept. 18, 1961, the plane carrying UN Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjöld and 15 others went down in a plane crash over Northern Rhodesia (now Zambia). All 16 died, but the facts of the crash were provocatively mysterious. … continue
Aletho News If Americans Knew No Tricks Zone
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