WHEN IT’S OKAY TO NUKE A COUNTRY
By Norman Finkelstein | April 12, 2024
Historian Benny Morris supports Prime Minister Netanyahu’s resolve to attack Rafah (“Israel’s Security Depends on Rafah,” NY Times, 11 April 2024). Normally home to 280,000 Gazans, Rafah now also contains 1.2 million internal refugees swept into the city during Israel’s massive ethnic cleansing the past six months. It’s probably the most densely populated spot on God’s earth. In a disingenuous wordplay, Morris designates these 1.5 million Gazans a “human shield.” This locution denotes the involuntary conscription by an armed force of civilians to protect itself. But Hamas didn’t conscript these forsaken souls as shields; it was Israel that drove them there while now purporting that it must kill them to get at Hamas. Morris’s article is couched in this propagandistic idiom. He still refers to the casualty figures as based on the “Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry” even as independent professional studies have confirmed these figures, and they are almost certainly an underestimate. He states that the current 33,000 figure “includes the more than 12,000 Hamas fighters the Israeli military claims to have killed these past six months.” In fact, the casualty figures Israel alleged in its previous “operations”—dutifully repeated by Morris in his books—wildly differed from the findings of human rights groups, while Israel has bandied about a mass of wildly discrepant figures of militants killed during the past six months. The IDF hasn’t even a clue how many Hamas combatants have been killed: it’s almost certain that most militants have fallen victim anonymously alongside civilians in the course of Israel’s deliberately indiscriminate terror assault on Gazan society; there have only been a handful of “battles” where Hamas corpses can ultimately be counted while, judging by previous Israeli operations—in which its “crazy” and “insane” firepower overwhelmed Hamas fighters and thus they rarely made it to actual combat—there cannot have been many Hamas battlefield corpses in the latest round to add up; the IDF doesn’t usually enter the Hamas tunnels it discovers but just explodes the shafts; Israel routinely classifies any dead adult male it stumbles upon during its “operations” as a Hamas “terrorist.” Meanwhile, Israel’s prime minister recently avowed that the IDF has killed only one civilian for every Hamas militant it killed. Does Morris believe this?
Morris justified an Israeli assault on the grounds that Rafah is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza; that an “expansive Hamas tunnel system” lies beneath Rafah; and that the “Hamas battalions” numbering “thousands of its fighters” ensconced in these tunnels must be “obliterated.” How does he know all this? Yes, Israel alleges that Hamas has built 450 miles of tunnels beneath Gaza. But that figure exceeds in length the famed sprawling, ramified New York City subway system (430 miles of tunnels), and, if true, every 1,200 hundred feet along minuscule Gaza’s 5-mile-long width, there is yet another 25-mile-long tunnel stretching its full length. Is that credible? It’s also anyone’s guess whether “Hamas battalions” are hiding in Rafah. Just a few months ago Israel alleged that Hamas’s command-and-control center lurked beneath al-Shifa hospital. Then it alleged that Hamas’s leaders had fled to Khan Younis. And on and on. Even as each claim proved to be false, they did nonetheless serve as a useful pretext to pulverize the infrastructure of another parcel of land as Israel proceeded to make Gaza uninhabitable. It seems that—with an assist from Morris—that fate now awaits Rafah.
Morris’s admonition that Hamas must suffer total defeat places him squarely within the consensus of Israeli politics. But the Israeli political spectrum is off the spectrum. There’s no center let alone left in Israeli politics: there’s only a right, a far right, and an ultra right. On the US political spectrum Morris’s opinion is echoed in a new publication by the neocon Jewish Institute for National Security of America: Hamas must be “effectively destroyed”; Israel must inflict a “visible and overwhelming defeat of Hamas.” (JINSA, “The Day After: A Plan for Gaza,” March 2024) The lead authors of this report are John Hannah, Elliott Abrams, and Lewis Libby. This trio was last heard from when they played crucial roles in the George W. Bush administration’s decision to unseat Saddam Hussain. So if you’re curious where Morris is coming from, think of the—crazed—mindset that brought us Iraq.
Morris anticipates that if the attack on Rafah goes ahead, “the additional civilian casualties and the attendant further disruption of humanitarian aid … will ratchet up condemnation of Israel’s conduct by its Western allies, led by the United States.” Notice his one and only concern is that the assault won’t go over well in the West. A just-released report by the respected International Crisis Group observes that Israel’s “stated goals of destroying Hamas and toppling the government” cannot be reconciled with “saving what remains of Gaza and preventing mass death from starvation and disease.” It’s one or the other. The report concludes that “The goal of toppling Hamas cannot justify abetting a famine that could claim tens of thousands of lives.” (“Stopping Famine in Gaza,” April 2024) But the moral dilemma of pursuing an assault that could result in a hecatomb doesn’t even register for Morris. His moral calculus only reckons the diplomatic fallout. Here again, he is an Everyman Israeli.
Professor Morris was once a serious historian. Like everyone else, he had his biases, but his books were replete with rich archival findings. But, per the generality of Israelis, he has in recent decades become so consumed by hatred and contempt of Palestinians, so given to bile-filled rants, that not a word he says can any longer be trusted. (I publicly challenged Morris during a debate to answer my stringent parsing of his recent scholarly output. Morris agreed—but then abruptly, albeit predictably, backed out after reading my analysis.) He has exploited his deserved past reputation to disseminate Israeli state propaganda. Like the JINSA neocons, he has been repeatedly exhorting the US to join Israel in an attack on Iran. What’s more, he has even rattled the threat that, if Israel has to go it alone, it will have no recourse except to nuke Iran:
“Realistic leaders in Washington and Jerusalem cannot allow Teheran to have the Bomb. And, in the coming months or year, must do what is necessary to halt and destroy the Iranian nuclear project. And if this involves a protracted, conventional air assault on the Iranian nuclear facilities—then so be it. The Iranians will have brought that assault on their own heads. And, if conventional weapons cannot do the job—and if Israel is forced to go the course alone, it is doubtful that its conventional capabilities will be sufficient to destroy the Iranian nuclear project. Then non-conventional weaponry will have to be used to stymie the project. And many innocent Iranians will die. But the Iranians will have brought this upon themselves by bringing to power and leaving in power a leadership that will have forced Israelis to do what was necessary in order to survive.” (“A Second Holocaust?: The threat to Israel” (2 May 2008; www.mideastfreedomforum.org/de/node/66)
It’s a most intriguing proposition. If the Iranian people elected their current government, then, if they are wiped out in a nuclear attack, “they will have brought this upon themselves.” Doesn’t it then follow that, if the Israeli people elected their current genocidal government—indeed, according to polls, overwhelmingly support the genocide—then “they will have brought this upon themselves” if …?
Game Over? Persian Gulf Powers Reportedly Refuse to Give US Access to Bases for Anti-Iran Strikes
By Ilya Tsukanov – Sputnik – 13.04.2024
Going back to the Gulf War in 1991, the US has depended on regional allies for large-scale military operations across the Middle East. Now, as tensions between Israel and Iran rise and the US-led unipolar world order comes under strain, America’s traditional partners are apparently refusing to walk in lock step with Washington.
Persian Gulf countries have reportedly told the United States not to launch any attacks against Iran from their territory or airspace amid seething regional tensions.
Sources, including a senior US official told the Middle East Eye that Gulf monarchies have been “working overtime” on the diplomatic track “to shut down avenues that could link them to a US reprisal against Tehran or its proxies from bases inside their kingdoms.”
The countries include regional heavyweights Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Kuwait, with their leaderships reportedly “raising questions” on the details of US basing agreements, and taking steps to prevent the use of their Iran-adjacent bases against the Islamic Republic.
NATO member Turkiye has also reportedly barred the US from using its airspace for strikes against Iran, but Sputnik has not been able to independently verify this information.
“It’s a mess,” a senior US official said, referring to the headache the Biden administration faces as it prepares for a potential Iranian retaliatory strike against its top regional ally Israel following Tel Aviv’s April 1 attack on the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus, Syria.
The Middle East Eye report follows a report by Axios on Friday citing US officials who said that Iran has privately warned the US that it will target American forces in the Middle East if Washington gets involved in a military confrontation between Iran and Israel.
The US has an estimated 40,000+ military personnel at bases dotting the Middle East, including the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which hosts at least 10,000 troops, and serves as the forward headquarters of United States Central Command – the combatant command responsible for military operations across the Middle East. Nearby Bahrain hosts up to 7,000 troops and the US Fifth Fleet – which operates in the Persian Gulf, the Red and Arabian Seas, and part of the Indian Ocean. The US also has a 15,000-troop garrison in Kuwait, at least 5,000 troops in the UAE, and about 2,700 troops and fighter jets at the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. Oman hosts a few hundred US troops, and allows the US Air Force to conduct overflights and landings, and warships to make 80 port calls annually.
The Gulf powers’ increasingly independent foreign policy is potentially a major setback for Washington, which for many decades after World War II (and especially after the Cold War) was able to rely on the Persian Gulf monarchies for its military operations in the oil-rich region.
Regional countries led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE have taken a series of steps recently to wean themselves off of dependence on the US economically, politically and militarily, with Riyadh moving to break the petrodollar monopoly in the oil trade with China, pausing its military campaign against Yemen’s Houthi militia, restoring diplomatic ties with Iran and, together with Abu Dhabi, joining the BRICS Plus bloc.
The Palestinian-Israeli crisis has driven Gulf state leaders and their populations further from the idea of the establishing relations with Israel, and chilled ties with the US thanks to the Biden administration’s full-fledged support for Tel Aviv in the course of the Gaza War.
Had UN condemned Israel, there’d be no need for retaliation – Iran
RT | April 11, 2024
Iran feels obligated to punish Israel for its attack on the diplomatic mission in Syria because the UN Security Council has failed in its duty, Tehran’s mission to the world body said on Thursday.
The April 1 airstrike killed seven Iranian officers, including two generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force. Israel did not officially claim responsibility for the attack.
“Had the UN Security Council condemned the Zionist regime’s reprehensible act of aggression on our diplomatic premises in Damascus and subsequently brought to justice its perpetrators, the imperative for Iran to punish this rogue regime might have been obviated,” the mission posted on X.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said that Israel “must and shall be punished” for what it did. Israeli and US intelligence has fueled speculation that possible reprisal could entail anything from drone attacks to ballistic missile strikes.
Israel has been bracing for some kind of response for over a week, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) canceling all leave and starting to spoof GPS signals.
Reports on Wednesday, sourced to anonymous US intelligence officials, spoke of an imminent Iranian strike within 24-48 hours, following the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and the feast of Eid-al-Fitr. Brent oil futures rose above $90 a barrel in anticipation.
British-based media have reported that Israel has been preparing to attack Iranian nuclear program facilities in case of a missile strike. The US government has declared it would back West Jerusalem against Tehran, but anonymous claims that American jets would join Israeli strikes have not been officially confirmed.
How Big a Factor is Iran in the War on Gaza?
By Ted Snider | The Libertarian Institute | April 10, 2024
In both Ukraine and Gaza, the Joe Biden administration has adopted the dangerous doctrine of war management in which, while not stopping a war diplomatically, it attempts to contain it and prevent it from becoming a wider war into which the United States might get drawn.
This difficult to calibrate policy is being threatened in both theaters.
In the Middle East, two Israeli actions have escalated the calibrated strikes between Israel and Iran, up to the threshold that Iran could absorb without feeling the necessity to respond.
One was an airstrike in southern Lebanon that killed Ali Ahmad Hassin, an important Hezbollah commander. The more significant and volatile one was the April 1 attack on an Iranian embassy compound in Damascus that killed seven Iranian officers, including General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the top Iranian Quds Force commander in Lebanon and Syria.
Zahedi is the most senior Iranian commander to be killed since war broke out on October 7. But what made this strike escalatory and dangerous is that it targeted an embassy compound under Iranian sovereignty. “When they attack our consulate,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a speech on April 10, “it is as if they have attacked our soil.” Khamenei called the decision to escalate to such an attack a “mistake” that “must be punished.”
A direct response by Iran against Israel could risk the nightmare scenario the United States has sought to avoid through its policy of managing wars. In that scenario, Iran retaliates in kind against Israel and Israel responds, drawing Iran and Hezbollah into the war in a manner that pulls in the Houthis as well as militias in Iraq and Syria. A Houthi source told Responsible Statecraft that “In case a full-scale war was to erupt between Hezbollah and Israel, Yemen and its leadership will stand with the party [Hezbollah] militarily, politically and economically” in a way that could even include “sending foot soldiers.” Such a force aligned against Israel could risk drawing the United States into the war.
In a speech on April 5, Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah called the attack on Iran’s Damascus embassy “a turning point” and said that it is “certain that the Iranian response to the [bombing] of the Iranian consulate is coming without a doubt.”
He said, perhaps clearly for the first time, that Hezbollah could intervene in the event of a full-scale Israel-Iran war. “Everyone must prepare themselves, arrange their matters and be careful,” he said, “when the Iranian side responds to the targeting of the Iranian consulate and to the Zionist enemy’s possible response to the Iranian response.”
Nasrallah said that an Iranian response is inevitable and seemed to caution against the size of the Israeli counter-response, saying, not only that “everyone must prepare themselves,” but reminding that Hezbollah has “not used the main weapons nor the main forces and we have not called in the reserves.”
Nasrallah may have been leveraging a fuller Hezbollah entrance into the war to caution Israel and the United States against an even more escalatory Israeli counter-response to the response Iran feels it must deliver. Iran may have gone one step further, leveraging its entrance into the war in an attempt to stop the war altogether.
As Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute first reported, an Arab diplomatic source told Jadeh Iran that Iran will respond to the Israeli attack on its embassy with a direct attack on Israel unless the United States orchestrates a ceasefire in Gaza. According to reporting in Jadeh Iran, “Iran has vowed to respond to the assassination of Zahedi.” However, in an “exchange of messages between Tehran and Washington” whose aim is “to contain escalation,” an Iranian proposal “stipulated a ceasefire in Gaza as a price” for not striking Israel in retaliation.
Though a causal line cannot be drawn, it is interesting that, in an interview recorded on April 3, President Joe Biden said, “I think what [Netanyahu’s] doing is a mistake. I don’t agree with his approach,” and then said, “So what I’m calling for is the Israelis to just call for a ceasefire, allow for the next six, eight weeks, a total access to all food and medicine going into the country.”
It is also interesting that the United States is participating in the latest round of ceasefire negotiations in Cairo. In an April 8 press conference, National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said that CIA Director Bill Burns was in Cairo for the talks. He said that the Biden administration “is doing everything possible to broker a deal that secures the release of all the hostages and leads to an immediate ceasefire. And there’s simply no higher priority.”
CNN went further, reporting that Burns wasn’t just present or participating, but that he “presented a new proposal to try to bridge the gaps in ongoing negotiations to broker a deal to bring about a ceasefire.”
Hezbollah may be responding to the killing of one of their commanders by leveraging the threat of its entering the war to prevent the war from entering an uncontrolled series of escalations. Iran may be responding to the airstrike on its embassy that killed a general by leveraging its entering the war to stop the war altogether. How big a factor Iran is, and how powerful its leverage, may help determine what comes next, how big the Israeli counter-response to Iran’s promised response is and even, perhaps, the prospects of a future ceasefire.
Iran Warns it Has Nine Types of Missiles Able to Strike Israeli Territory
Sputnik – 08.04.2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long urged military action against the self-avowed Islamic Republic, but the nation of 88 million people possesses significant defensive capabilities.
Iran has nine types of missiles with sufficient range to hit Israeli territory, Iranian news agency ISNA reported against the backdrop of concerns over possible armed conflict between the two countries.
An infographic presented by the news agency Sunday revealed multiple Iranian ballistic missiles – the Sejjil, Kheibar, Emad, Shahab-3, Ghadr, Paveh, Fattah-2, Kheibar Shekan, and Haj Qasem – the speed of which ranges from Mach 5 to Mach 14 (from 3,836 miles per hour to 10,741 miles per hour).
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long urged military action against the self-avowed Islamic Republic and regional critic of Israel, but the nation of 88 million people possesses significant defensive capabilities. A war on Iran also raises the prospect of potential involvement by Tehran’s ally Russia, while Netanyahu would presumably count on an assist from the United States.
On April 1, Israel carried out an airstrike on the consular annex of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, destroying the building. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said seven of its members had been killed in the attack, including two commanders. On Tuesday the Syrian Health Ministry said the attack had also killed four Syrians and injured 13 more.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry said it “reserves the right” to respond to the Israeli attack and “punish the aggressor.” Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi also vowed Israel would pay a “heavy price” for the strike.
“None of the embassies of the (Israeli) regime are safe anymore,” said top Iranian military advisor Gen. Rahim Safavi Sunday, suggesting the country could mirror Israel’s consular strike.
Iran is a staunch defender of the Palestinian cause in the region – Palestinian solidarity was a founding principle of the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution which toppled the US backed Pahlavi royal family. The country’s foreign policy is rooted in strong opposition to US imperialism, which has left a lasting legacy in the Persian country.
Denmark sacks defense chief as Red Sea failures pile up for NATO
The Cradle | April 4, 2024
The Danish government fired Chief of Defense Flemming Lentfer on 3 April after it was revealed that the top military official failed to report flaws in the HDMS Iver Huitfeldt’s air defense and weapons systems that emerged during an attack last month by the Yemeni armed forces in the Red Sea.
“I have lost trust in the chief of defense,” Troels Lund Poulsen, Denmark’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, told reporters on Wednesday night. Poulsen reportedly learned about the failure from the Danish military outlet Olfi.
“We are facing a historic and necessary strengthening of Denmark’s defense forces. This places great demands on our organization and on the military advice at a political level,” the Danish official added.
On 9 March, the Iver Huitfeldt’s air defense systems failed for 30 minutes while engaging Yemeni attacks launched in support of the resistance in Gaza, according to a leaked document written by the ship’s commanding officer and reviewed by Olfi. The document also reported issues with the ship’s ammunition system, which caused half of its rounds to detonate before they hit their target.
“Our clear understanding is that the issue has been known for years without the necessary sense of urgency to resolve the problem,” the frigate’s commanding officer reported.
The Iver Huitfeldt eventually fended off the attack, shooting down four drones over the Red Sea in what – at the time – was presented as a success story.
Lentfer’s firing is the latest in a string of recent public embarrassments from NATO member states, particularly in the Red Sea, where a months-long campaign of US and UK airstrikes inside Yemen has failed to deter attacks against Israeli-linked vessels.
“We favor a diplomatic solution; we know that there is no military solution,” US Special Envoy for Yemen Timothy Lenderking said on Wednesday from Oman, candidly acknowledging the failure of what US military commanders called Washington’s largest naval battle since WWII.
Other recent mishaps for NATO include Germany’s use of obsolete communications systems and unsecured lines to discuss providing Ukraine with cruise missiles and Britain’s failure twice in a row to test its nuclear missiles after having two of its flagship aircraft carriers break down ahead of drills in Norway.
Strike on Iranian Consulate Sign of Status Quo as US, Allies Let Israel ‘Cross All Red Lines’
By Ian DeMartino – Sputnik – 03.04.2024
On Monday, Iran said that Israeli warplanes struck the Iranian embassy in Syria, killing seven military advisers, including two generals. On Tuesday, Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed revenge.
As the US and its allies have continuously allowed Israel to “cross all red lines” in the past, it should be no surprise that it attacked an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Dr. Seyed Mohammad Marandi told Sputnik’s The Critical Hour on Tuesday.
“The Israeli regime is only able to carry out these attacks because the United States, the Europeans, the Canadians, the British, the Australians allow them to cross all red lines. When they’re allowed to commit a genocide, when they’re allowed to carry out a Holocaust, in the words of the president of Brazil, then, obviously, attacking an embassy shouldn’t be unexpected.”
However, the United States and Europeans continue to parrot Israel’s lies, Marandi said, noting Israeli forces have attacked Al-Shifa hospital twice now, and the first time they falsely claimed it contained a tunnel network and Hamas command center.
“Now, they still try to repeat their lies even though it’s much more difficult,” Marandi explained. “They’ve wrecked all the hospitals. They’ve wrecked all the infrastructure. They shoot people carrying white flags.”
“There’s so much documentation that there’s no way for the Americans and Europeans to escape the reality that this is a genocidal and criminal regime from top to bottom. Yet still, they behave as if this is a normal country, as if this is a country that’s exercising its right and that it may be making mistakes.”
Marandi and co-hosts Wilmer Leon and Garland Nixon acknowledged the unlikelihood of the US not having advance notice about the attack; however, Marandi postulated it would showcase Israel’s lack of respect for the US if they didn’t.
“If the Americans didn’t know, then it just shows that the Israelis have no respect for the United States, that the Israelis don’t care what the implications are for the United States in this region and globally, because there is no doubt that the Iranians are going to respond. This is no ordinary attack.”
Unlike the US and Europeans that allow Israel to “get away with anything,” this attack is a red line “that the Iranians cannot ignore.”
“The Iranians are going to hit back hard. And if the Americans didn’t know, then that means the Israelis are putting the Americans at risk of a very complicated situation, but they don’t care.”
With the protests against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ongoing, and some US politicians calling for elections in Israel, Marandi stressed the importance of remembering that he is not alone in carrying out the genocide in Gaza. “Let’s not allow the Americans to pin the blame on Netanyahu. Overwhelmingly people in Israel support the genocide, and, apparently, more than half believe it should be even more intense.”
“The problem goes way beyond Netanyahu.”
Israel’s Attack on Iranian Consulate Highlights Netanyahu’s Pending Defeat in Gaza
Sputnik – 02.04.2024
Tel Aviv launched a strike against the Iranian diplomatic compound in the Syrian capital of Damascus this week, killing several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers in the process.
Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria suggests that it is trying to “widen” the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip by drawing Iran into it, said Foad Izadi, an associate professor at the University of Tehran’s Department of American Studies.
“They have been trying to start a military confrontation between the United States and Iran for many years. And they think that they have an opportunity to have this done fighting Iran using American soldiers,” he told Sputnik, apparently suggesting that the US would be quick to leap to Israel’s defense if the latter were threatened by Tehran.
Izadi also remarked that Israel displayed a blatant disregard for international law by attacking a diplomatic compound, which is a violation of the Vienna Convention.
“That is what Israelis are trying to do. Netanyahu realizes that he has lost the war in Gaza. He has managed to kill more than 30,000, mostly women and children, without achieving any goals except killing these people and ruining their homes,” Izadi said.
“They say that they want to destroy Hamas, but that’s not a goal they can achieve. Obviously, they would have done that if they could. That’s why criminal acts and genocide in Gaza continue. And Netanyahu realizes that sooner or later this war needs to end. And that would be the end of his prime ministership. And so he’s trying to prolong the war, he’s trying to widen the war,” Izadi added.
Noting that Iran’s attempt to seek justice via the UN Security Council may be unsuccessful due to the likelihood of the US vetoing a resolution critical of Israel, Izadi suggested that Tehran may opt to “cause pain for the Israelis so that these types of actions are not repeated.”
“Because Iranian officials realize that if there is no pain in engaging in this type of activity, then they will continue,” he elaborated. “So I think Iran’s response would be two-fold in a manner that is not satisfying the Israeli aim of widening the war. I think that’s what Iranian leaders will do.”
Houthis Thwart the US-UK Military Dictatorship on Global South
By Simon Chege Ndiritu – New Eastern Outlook – 28.03.2024
A multipolar world is taking shape even in the military realm, as can be inferred from Houthi’s ability to curtail the US and UK goal of propping up Israeli genocide in Gaza at all cost. Houthis persistence and continued ability to inflict damage on Israeli, American, and British vessels transiting through Bab el Mandeb until Israel lifts its medieval blockade on Gaza shows that the western empire’s military dictatorship can be resisted by small countries. Meanwhile, the western empire desperately seeks diversion from its failure in the Red Sea.
Diversion; from Military Operation to Humanitarian Concern
The US and UK’s ill-fated “Operation Prosperity Guardian” is turning out so awfully wrong that the western media prefers to ignore it, hoping the rest of the world will forget. A passing view of the main western media outlets, France 24, CNN, and BBC on the 19th and 20th March 2024 shows that they did not display the exploits of the western empire’s military, either in Ukraine or the Red Sea like they cheered the destruction of all former victims of the empire. Instead, the European section of this propaganda machine; France 24, and BBC attempted to assume a moral high ground, by hypocritically raising the awareness of the dire food situation in Gaza, which is caused by their governments’ blind arming of Israel. France 24, featured a report by UNICEF stating how it was wrong to let children in Gaza to starve, and accentuated the story with a photo of a starving African child; for an extra boost of sympathy. Similarly, the BBC’s homepage in extreme right column carried a story of how the entire Gaza now faces starvation, something that could not be published in such a position just a few weeks ago. The CNN steered clear of Gaza and Ukraine and could not even popularize Biden’s botched campaign to airdrop a few food packages to Gazans (here), which ended awfully with some packages falling in the sea, others in Israel, and others killing Gazans. Noteworthy, the US provides millions of times more bombs to Israel than food to Gaza, and none of its bombs have missed its target by the margin seen in the airdropped food packages. This comparison shows the strong determination of the US to aid Israel in exterminating Palestinians, and that its food airdrop is for public relations.
The main lesson that comes to the fore is that American and British commitment to eliminating Yemeni’s resistance to their sponsored genocide has not born fruits. Therefore, the days of the West achieving every narrow-minded goal using its military are over. It is also clear that western global dictatorship will not only be resisted by military superpowers like Russia and China but also by small countries with sufficient missile and drone technology. “Operation Prosperity Guardian” has spectacularly failed and its architects; Washington and London have proved unable to defend their merchant vessels and Israel’s in the Red Sea. Surprisingly, it appears that the security of vessels transiting through the area is inversely proportional to the military deployment by countries owning them (these vessels). The US and the UK, which have heavily deployed their naval forces in and around the Red Sea have faced the most significant attacks from the Houthis, while vessels from other countries have been transiting peacefully. The Houthis’ meticulous selection of targets has denied the US and UK propaganda impetus of portraying the group’s attacks as indiscriminate. It may be dawning on the Western Empire that it may have to force Israel to suspend its medieval blockade on Gaza. This realization can explain Biden’s mumbling a declaration to establish a floating pier for vessels to ‘deliver aid’ to Gazans (here). However, such a pier may be designed for smuggling Gazans out in what Israeli hypocrites call voluntary immigration. Nonetheless, Operation Prosperity Guardian has failed so badly that Lindsey Graham, the empire’s military windsock pointed back to Ukraine, appearing flaccid and demanding mobilization of more young Ukrainians to add wind to the west’s failing military campaign (here). However, Houthi’s are not yet done.
On March 19th, Houthis’ spokesman announced (here) about Yemeni’s attack on a US commercial vessel MADO, news that the US media ignored before the UK Maritime Trade Organization (UKMTO) confirming. The attack constituted a trend where US vessels have been targeted recently, one of which resulted in casualties. Earlier, the UK even lost a commercial ship, Rubymar, a bulk Carrier that was struck by Houthis on the 18th February (here) and received significant damages making the crew to abandon it. The vessel sank several days later. Later, a US owned vessel, Gibraltar eagle, was also struck by Houthis in the recent past (here). Meanwhile, the US and UK navies have failed to lift the Houthis’ blockade on the Israeli port of Eilat which, reported, losing over 85% of its revenue since the Yemeni group started operations (here). The simple message that should be clear now is that the US and UK must abandon their hegemonic arrogance of trying to achieve haughty goals like militarily advancing Israeli genocide and others. The Houthis remind that a new world order is here, in which diplomacy is needed to balance the legitimate interests of all.
Houthi attacks also have desirable secondary effects in global geopolitics, especially in freeing long-term US hostages and isolating the latter. The Houthis have capabilities to inflict significant damage to participants, which has dissuaded some and limited the US ability to diplomatically mobilize vassals, relative to earlier campaigns against Iraq and Afghanistan. The past US imperial wars of plunder saw many countries joining, including Germany, Spain, Australia, New Zealand, and Poland as there was no risk of meaningful retaliation, but the Houthis are different. For instance, Australia declined to send its vessel to Operation Prosperity Guardian (here) for fear of losing them. However, the same (Australia) sent it thuggish Special Forces to Afghanistan to kill Afghans and drink beer from their prosthetic limbs (here). Other US allies declined to participate or only gave marginal support (here), while Germany’s participation came later, and entailed an embarrassing maneuver involving trying to shoot down US drones. Participants of the current operation are cautious of the risks involved, and the Houthis have repeatedly reported targeting US and UK naval vessels, statements that cannot be ignored. Also, navies involved are primarily securing their shipping vessels as opposed to helping the US military posturing, even when the American contingent is stretched thin and unable to provide meaningful protection to American shipping vessels (here).
The US Central Command, which is not in charge of the central US, but the Middle East, has been reduced to issuing threats and statements that have not deterred Houthis, after several months of military deployment and savage bombing of Yemen. As things stand, the pentagon can either continue its military posturing and risk even more attacks, or urge Israel to meet the Houthis’ demands and halt the Genocide in Gaza. Houthis have reminded the US that it cannot always get its way in the global south, and needs to take demands from smaller countries seriously.
Humbling a Goliath: US-Led ‘No-Fail’ Mission Against the Houthis is Failing
By Ilya Tsukanov – Sputnik – 27.03.2024
The US established a maritime ‘coalition of the willing’ in the Red Sea in December 2023 and began bombing Yemen in January in response to the Houthis’ bid to shut down Israeli-affiliated commercial traffic through the waterway in solidarity with Palestine. The Houthis have vowed to continue their operations until the carnage in Gaza stops.
The US-led military campaign in the Red Sea which the Pentagon wanted to make into a “no-fail mission” has turned into a modern-day David vs. Goliath PR disaster, with the powerful American naval and air might arrayed against the Houthis proving unable to stop militia attacks or reopen the Red Sea to shipping, US business media has reported.
“The gray F/A-18 fighter jets hurtled one by one from the deck of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower into the heat of the Red Sea morning, scrambling to counter the latest attack drone launched by the Houthis. The $56 million aircraft were part of a coalition operation that nullified the attack, returning hours later as they have almost daily for the last several months,” Bloomberg wrote in a report Wednesday highlighting the difficulties the West has faced trying to stop Ansar Allah.
“Yet for all the costly hardware the US and its allies have thrown at the Islamist group from northwest Yemen, they haven’t been able to stop the attacks on civilian freighters and warships. As a result, the world’s biggest shipping companies are still largely avoiding a route that once carried 15% of global commerce,” the outlet lamented.
Rear Admiral Marc Miguez, commander of USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier-led American armada operating in the Red Sea, said that while the US has “reduced some” of the Houthis’ missile and drone capability through strikes, there’s no way to predict when the fleet’s “job” in the region will be done, since estimates on Houthi missile numbers are “kind of a black hole for the US intelligence-wise.”
Shipping firms and companies impacted by the Red Sea crisis are even less optimistic.
“It’s quite a binary situation,” Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen explained earlier this month. “It is either safe for our people or it is not. As long as it is not safe, we will not send our people through the Red Sea.” Jansen didn’t rule out the Houthi blockade could last throughout the rest of the year and into 2025.
A Western official predicted that the Houthis will be able to continue their blockade at its current intensity for “months” to come. Others accused the Houthis of getting help from outside via Iran, including everything from weapons components to sea mine-laying specialists. Iran has “categorically” denied providing any military or weapons assistance to the Houthis.
“[The Houthis] don’t create inertial navigation systems. They don’t create medium-range ballistic missile engines. They don’t create the stage separations on these medium-range ballistic missiles or the anti-ship cruise missiles,” US Central Command commander Gen. Michael Kurilla told a Senate hearing earlier this month, accusing Ansar Allah of getting help from outside, and ignoring the vast stocks of Soviet-era ballistic, cruise and air defense missile technologies which the Houthis have inherited and upgraded since 2014.
Unable to stop the Houthis at sea, Western officials have rejected any talk of a ground operation against the militia, warning that if the group escalates its targeting of Western warships, the coalition may respond by assassinating Houthi leaders.
An anonymous US military official told Bloomberg that the US is on the “wrong side of the cost curve” in the Red Sea campaign, whose economic costs are starting to add up.
While the Houthis can build and launch simple ballistic and cruise missiles or drones at a cost of thousands to tens of thousands of dollars, the anti-missile interceptors US warships launch to take down militia threats are costing US taxpayers up to hundreds of thousands of dollars apiece, with F/A-18 jets costing the Navy $25,000 or more per hour to operate (not counting whatever munitions they happen to expend during their mission).
The Houthis’ campaign of ship seizures, missile and drone attacks have caused commercial traffic through the southern Red Sea to drop by about 70 percent in March compared to early December, with container shipping reportedly down 90 percent, gas tanker flow halting almost completely, and Israel’s main Red Sea port forced to lay off half of its workforce.
Ansar Allah began its partial blockade of the Red Sea in November with the seizure of the Galaxy Leader, an Israeli billionaire-owned ro-ro car carrier, expanding operations to target not only Israeli, but US and British commercial vessels and warships after the pair of nations began a campaign of airstrikes against Yemen in January. Last month, the militia warned European countries setting up their own maritime security operations in the Red Sea that “any idiocy you commit will affect your ships and navigation.” Major European shipping companies including Maersk have said they would continue to avoid the Red Sea in spite of the EU’s security mission.
