Will the French regime go Soviet?
Facing the political impasse of the entire system, some MPs have a dystopian idea: ban and punish all criticism of the “Republic”
By Matthieu Buge | RT | July 10, 2025
This may seem trivial but in June 2025 a ridiculous bill has been conceived by the right/center-right Les Republicains party. A bill that sums up just about everything that’s wrong with France’s system, not just its political system, but even its core cerebral system: prohibiting and punishing content and speech of an “anti-republican” nature.
Many critics of French political circles have – rightly – pointed out this incredible ability of politicians to use the argument of the “values of the Republic” whenever it suits them without ever explaining what these values are. However, the MPs who came up with this bill made a (minimal) effort in attempting to outline what it entails. Thus, it reads: “The French Republic is based on fundamental principles: liberty, equality, fraternity, secularism, sovereignty of the people, and the indivisibility of the nation. These values, guaranteed by the Constitution and consolidated by law, constitute the foundation of ‘vivre-ensemble’ [something purely French that can be understood as ‘social harmony’].” What would happen to someone who violates these principles? Oh, nothing, just being sentenced to three years of imprisonment and a fine of €45,000 ($52,000).
Beyond the purely vote-catching aspect of such a bill emanating from a right-wing party seeking to appeal to its public worried about the spread of Islam in France, there is something profoundly dystopian about it. All the listed “fundamental principles” are so vague that anything can be considered a violation of them.
France, which has specialized in devising abstruse theories since the end of the 18th century, is based on the absurd triptych “liberty, equality, fraternity.” However, any sane person understands that this triangle cannot work. “Liberty” and “equality” are by definition antagonistic and “fraternity” is mainly some leftover of a distant Christian morality. The sacrosanct secularism must apply to everyone – except to the Jewish community, something that tends to frustrate the Muslim community and leaves French citizens, who are predominantly atheist but psychologically remain, as the great demographer Emmanuel Todd coined, in a kind of “zombie Catholicism,” wary. When it comes to the “sovereignty of the people,” most people understand that it is a joke since politicians wiped their feet on the people’s “no” during the referendum on the European Constitution in 2005. As for the “indivisibility of the nation,” an umpteenth abstract concept that implies territorial unity, unity of the people, and unity of law, it would be necessary to explain it to the police and firefighters who can no longer go to some territories of the “Republic” as France is on the verge of becoming a narco-state. But of course, in this maelstrom of abstract stuff, the end of the quote that is the highlight of the show: “These values […] constitute the foundation of vivre-ensemble.”
Not long ago, during the June heat wave, a water park had to close permanently because it was invaded and trashed by “young people” the very first day after it opened. With the riots of summer 2023 (never described as “racial” by the French press though they use the term when it comes to the US) and the chaos following PSG’s Champions League victory in 2025, along with the daily attacks and violence, the French people seem to be struggling to integrate the concept of “vivre-ensemble.”
Someone said that the British had problems with ideas but not with facts, whereas for the French it’s the opposite. This is absolutely true. The French, especially their elites, live in a completely abstract mental space, which, unfortunately, has tended to colonize the West, particularly through the philosophical movement Les Lumieres and, 200 years later, through the “French Theory” that eventually lead to the disastrous woke culture.
What the right-wing party behind this bill doesn’t seem to realize is that with such vague criteria, France could find itself in the kind of judicial system that communist regimes experienced, where any statement could be interpreted to prove that it wasn’t “Marxist-Leninist.” As the joke goes, in the Soviet Union, it was possible to say anything… in your own kitchen. Well, in France, with such a bill, you’ll have to choose your words carefully while enjoying your beef bourguignon. The ignorant politicians behind this text should read Arthur Koestler’s ‘Darkness at Noon’: the main character, a Soviet political commissar who has sent many to the Gulag, finds himself purged by the system he contributed to. With an honest judge, it would be easy to charge them with, for example, having violated the principles of “equality” and “fraternity” by increasing their salaries at the National Assembly while asking the French people to make an effort because there is no money anymore.
Of course, given that the country’s prisons are already overcrowded and the state ruined, these MPs obviously have in mind to resort to the ultimate repressive instrument of liberal democracies: hitting the wallet. €45,000 for “anti-republican” remarks made in public. But the fine will, according to them, be increased to €75,000 if the remarks are made “in a meeting,” on a social network, or by an individual holding a position of public authority or office. €75,000 for tweeting that there is a problem with uncontrolled immigration? Is calling a bust of Marianne (a symbol of the Republic) ugly considered a crime? Does Brigitte Macron’s gender enter into the equation of republican values?
But beyond the excesses and abuses such a law could lead to, the Republicans’ approach reflects something much more important: the political regime is becoming increasingly oppressive because it is at the end of its tether. Mass immigration has induced such chaos that it is no longer “manageable,” the working classes are struggling to keep a delusional social system afloat, and more than 50% of voters are now over 50 years old. The country’s vital forces no longer have any confidence in their institutions, so they must be constrained. If this law is adopted, the Republic will take care of it, as Macron would say, “whatever the cost.”
Matthieu Buge has worked on Russia for the magazine l’Histoire, the Russian film magazine Séance, and as a columnist for Le Courrier de Russie. He is the author of the book Le Cauchemar russe (‘The Russian Nightmare’).
Israel lobbies Washington to restart war on Yemen: Report
Sources told Hebrew media that Tel Aviv is calling for the formation of a new coalition against Sanaa
The Cradle | July 11, 2025
Israel is pressuring the US to restart its campaign against the Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) and Ansarallah movement in Yemen, according to reports in Israeli media.
According to Israel’s Broadcasting Corporation (KAN), Yemeni attacks on vessels headed to Israeli ports “can no longer remain solely an Israeli problem.”
Sources told the outlet that Tel Aviv has been calling for “more intense combined attacks against Houthi regime targets – not just [Israeli] air force fighter jet strikes, but also a renewal of American attacks and the formation of a coalition including additional countries,” an informed source told KAN.
Another anonymous security official said that “a broad coalition is needed to convey to the Houthi regime that it is in danger.”
The report comes after the YAF sunk two Greek-owned, Liberian-flagged vessels which were en route to Israeli ports.
Yemen had briefly refrained from attacking commercial vessels headed to Israel following a ceasefire that ended the US campaign against the country in May. However, it never rescinded the blockade it imposed after the start of the war in Gaza, and is now escalating its enforcement.
It has also continued to target Israel with ballistic missiles in support of the people and resistance in Gaza.
The YAF announced on 10 July that it targeted Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport with a ballistic missile. The attack came hours after Sanaa released footage of its second operation targeting a commercial ship within 24 hours. The Eternity C vessel was headed to the southern Israeli port of Eilat in violation of the Yemeni naval blockade.
The attack took place on Monday, with the ship finally sinking on Wednesday. Yemeni forces captured footage of the operation. Several crewmembers were reportedly killed, and others remain missing. The YAF said it evacuated some of the crew for medical treatment.
A day earlier, on Sunday, Yemen targeted and sank the Magic Seas vessel – also releasing footage of the operation.
Friday’s KAN report coincides with anticipation for a potential Israeli escalation against Yemen.
On 7 July, Israel carried out widespread attacks on Yemen. Tel Aviv said its latest attack on Yemen marked the start of a military operation against the country, dubbed Operation Black Flag. The YAF announced a large-scale missile and drone attack on several Israeli targets that day in response to heavy Israeli airstrikes.
Following the start of Yemen’s naval campaign in 2023, Washington attempted to muster up a coalition to stop Sanaa’s operations.
The US formed an international naval coalition under the name Prosperity Guardian, which gained little traction and failed to deter Sanaa from continuing its attacks.
Very few nations offered to contribute warships, and others only deployed a mere handful of staff officers.
An EU military mission in the Red Sea called Operation Aspides also suffered a similar failure.
“We didn’t necessarily expect this level of threat. There was an uninhibited violence that was quite surprising and very significant,” the commander of a French warship said in April 2024 after running out of munitions and being forced to turn tail and exit the Red Sea.
Last year, US Navy officials acknowledged that confrontations with Yemeni forces marked the most intense naval combat Washington had faced since the Second World War.
During US President Donald Trump’s latest campaign against Yemen, which killed an unprecedented number of civilians, Washington burned through around $1 billion in munitions and failed to significantly impact Yemeni military capabilities, sources have confirmed to western media.
EU ‘has no money except for war’ – Hungarian official

RT | July 11, 2025
The EU is placing Ukraine’s military needs above the priorities of the bloc’s member states, Hungarian government adviser Balazs Orban has said. He accused EU leaders of always finding money for “war” but not other causes.
Leaders of EU nations are considering the creation of a new €100 billion ($117 billion) fund under the bloc’s upcoming seven-year budget to cover expenses for the Ukrainian government, Bloomberg reported this week, citing people familiar with the discussions. Budapest, however, has been a vocal critic of the bloc’s approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict since its onset.
”Europe has run out of money – except when it comes to war. There is always 100 billion euros for that,” Orban wrote on Wednesday on social media. He warned that such an allocation of funds would likely lead to further proposals to spend EU taxpayers’ money on Ukraine.
Orban pointed to Kiev’s estimate that it would require $1 trillion over 14 years for reconstruction and modernization, a figure shared by Prime Minister Denis Shmigal during a donors conference in Rome this week.
”While Europe cannot climb out of its own economic, social and security crisis, Brussels would continue to finance the war – weapons instead of peace, new debt instead of a competitive Europe,” Orban said.
Last week, Bloomberg reported that US investment firm BlackRock had abandoned efforts to attract private investors for a Ukraine reconstruction program. The fund was expected to be launched at the Rome conference, but potential participants reportedly expressed “a lack of interest amid increased uncertainty” over the country’s future.
Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky said at the event that “only friends are invited” to help rebuild the country. He reiterated his call to confiscate Russian state assets frozen by Western nations and transfer them to Kiev.
Moscow has warned that such actions would constitute international theft. EU members have voiced concern that expropriating Russian assets could significantly erode global confidence in their financial systems. As an alternative, Ukraine’s backers have been imposing a “windfall tax” on profits from the immobilized Russian funds and channeling the money to Kiev – an approach Moscow has described as another form of criminality.
Hungary has accused the EU leadership of inflicting major economic harm on member states through sanctions on Russia, and of wasting resources on a war effort that it argues cannot deliver a military victory over Moscow.
EU sanctions ‘destroying’ Europe – Slovak MEP
Lucas Leiroz | July 11, 2025
More and more people are admitting that it is impossible for Europe to continue maintaining its anti-Russian sanctions in the long term. Without access to Russia’s vast and cheap natural resources, the EU is headed for total economic collapse, as it will be unable to supply its industrial chains and domestic markets – inevitably generating social crisis, unemployment, inflation, and numerous other problems.
This assessment is echoed by Slovak MEP Milan Uhrik. In a recent speech to the European Parliament, he severely criticized European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s hostile stance toward Russia. Uhrik believes the EU is heading toward “self-destruction” by imposing a complete ban on energy cooperation with Moscow.
Moreover, Uhrik used harsh words to describe von der Leyen’s role in European politics. Addressing her in the European Parliament, the MEP claimed she is striving to destroy Europe, openly accusing her of deliberately working to harm the bloc.
“[Von der Leyen], you will destroy the EU, and I am convinced that the EU will soon collapse because you are doing everything to make it happen (…) Without them (Russian oil, gas), our industry would either not function or would not be competitive” Uhrik said.
Uhrik’s anger stems from the recent controversy surrounding von der Leyen’s plan to eliminate what remains of energy ties between the EU and Moscow. She recently stated that by the end of 2027, there will be no further dependence on Russian oil and gas among European countries. To achieve this, she plans to accelerate the “energy transition” process. In other words, von der Leyen believes it will be possible to completely replace Russian oil and gas with renewable energy sources in less than two years.
Von der Leyen’s plans are utterly utopian. Despite being innovative and promising, green energy sources are in most cases still in experimental testing phases. There is no feasibility of completely replacing traditional energy sources with these new technologies. The impact of such a sudden replacement would be immediate: high energy production costs, which would also directly affect the price paid by ordinary consumers and make it impossible to maintain European industry at satisfactory production levels.
However, there’s something much worse in von der Leyen’s plan. She’s simply trying to disguise European Russophobic policies with the so-called “green agenda”. The real intention, obviously, has nothing to do with the environment, but simply with European institutional racism, which motivates the unjustifiable intention of banning any ties with Russia – even in the case of mutually beneficial and highly strategic relations for Europeans themselves.
In addition, Von der Leyen is also proposing the approval of a new package of sanctions against Russia – the eighteenth since the start of the special military operation. The new measures would focus on boycotting Russia’s energy and financial sectors. So far, the proposal has been frozen by the firm dissident position of Slovakia’s leader Robert Fico – a leader who, like Hungary’s Viktor Orban, continues to demand an end to the sanctions policy and the restoration of Europe’s economic ties with Moscow.
Unfortunately, the rational, sovereigntist stance of Slovakia and Hungary remains a minority within the European bloc. Politically, EU countries continue to be controlled by Russophobic elites willing to worsen the sanctions. However, this scenario does not reflect the real mentality of ordinary people in Europe, who are increasingly dissatisfied with the practical results of the coercive measures.
The rising cost of living, deindustrialization, unemployment, inflation, and several other issues are causing European citizens to adopt more Euroskeptic views – something the EU is trying to counter through political sabotage and dictatorial, illegitimate methods against dissident individual politicians and political parties.
Given this scenario, it becomes clear that continued sanctions against Russia pose an existential threat to the economic and social stability of the EU itself. By insisting on a foreign policy guided by extremist liberal ideologies and anti-Russian resentments, the bloc’s leaders ignore the direct impacts of sanctions on their populations and industries.
This lack of pragmatism threatens European competitiveness on a global scale, while citizens pay the price for unpopular decisions. Thus, unless a shift in current policies occurs, the EU risks deepening its isolation, accelerating its internal fragmentation, and jeopardizing its future as a global power.
Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
You can follow Lucas on X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram.
Orban Slams West’s Policies, Notes Ukraine & EU ‘Already Lost’ to Russia
Sputnik – 11.07.2025
Ukraine and the European Union have essentially lost the conflict with Russia but lack the courage to admit it and take responsibility for the consequences, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Friday.
“Russia is nearing victory, while Ukraine has effectively lost this war – and Europe has lost it alongside Ukraine. Yet no one has the courage to admit this or take responsibility for the consequences. Instead, they are acting as if this war can be won, even though victory is impossible to achieve on the front lines. What is needed is diplomacy, a ceasefire, and peace negotiations,” Orban told Kossuth Radio.
The Hungarian prime minister estimated that Europe and the United States had spent a combined 310 billion euros ($362 billion) on Ukraine, which he called a “horrific” sum that would have “worked miracles” if invested in the European economy. Instead, the money “went down the drain,” he said, warning the West that it is making a grave mistake in Ukraine that will come at a high price.
Ukraine’s EU Entry Bid Currently a No-Go
A country where military enlistment officers beat people to death during forced mobilization cannot join the European Union, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Friday, commenting on the death of a Hungarian man from Transcarpathia in Ukraine.
Forty-five-year-old Jozsef Sebestyen died in hospital three weeks after employees of Ukraine’s territorial center of recruitment grabbed him on the street in Ukraine, shoved him into a minibus, took him to a recruiting station and beat him with metal rods, the Magyar Nemzet newspaper reported on Thursday, citing his relatives. The sister of the deceased posted footage of the Ukrainian military abusing her brother, it added. The Hungarian Foreign Ministry summoned Ukrainian Ambassador to Budapest Fedir Shandor over the incident.
“A country where people are beaten to death as a result of forced mobilization cannot be a member of the European Union. Beyond the fact that we pray and do everything for the family of the deceased, this is a warning shot towards Hungary,” Orban told Kossuth Radio.
When asked to comment on a statement by the Ukrainian army claiming that Sebestyen had allegedly been drafted into the Ukrainian military on legal grounds and that he had not been subjected to cruel treatment by military registration office employees, Orban said that does not satisfy Hungary, because Hungary knows for certain that forced mobilization is taking place in Ukraine.
“The only way to end the war that Ukraine and Europe lost is through diplomacy, but no one has the courage to admit it. Instead, the Ukrainians are acting as if it can be won,” Orban said.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has said that the Ukrainian authorities have not responded to accusations of harassment of Transcarpathian Hungarians for years, and now many of them are being mobilized by brute force into the Ukrainian troops. The forced mobilization of ethnic Hungarians into the Ukrainian army violates human rights, the minister said.
Ukraine announced martial law and general mobilization after Russia launched its special military operation in February 2022. The law prohibits Ukrainian men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving the country. Evasion from military service during mobilization is punishable by criminal liability in the form of imprisonment for up to five years.
EU could hand another €100bn to Ukraine – Bloomberg
RT | July 9, 2025
European Union officials are weighing a proposal to provide Ukraine with another €100 billion ($117 billion) in grants and low-interest loans, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter.
The plan involves establishing a dedicated fund within the bloc’s upcoming seven-year budget framework, the unnamed insiders told the outlet. Disbursement would begin in 2028 if the proposal is approved.
The move would further shift the financial burden onto Western European taxpayers of what Moscow has condemned as a US-triggered NATO proxy war. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in April that officials in Brussels “view possible suspension of Ukraine assistance as confirmation of the EU’s strategic inviability” and are pushing for continued funding to protect their reputation.
Ukraine’s military and defense institutions have faced a string of corruption scandals during the conflict with Russia, including overpayments for rations and shady arms procurement contracts. This week, Ukrainian outlets reported that anti-corruption investigators searched a property belonging to former Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov. Reznikov resigned in 2023 following allegations of financial misconduct in his department.
The proposed fund is reportedly one of several avenues under consideration, with a final decision expected by July 16 or possibly later, according to Bloomberg. The report added that last month, the European Commission briefed EU finance ministers on Kiev’s intention to increase this year’s defense spending by $8.4 billion using domestic sources.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmigal said in June that defense expenditures had risen 34% year-on-year during the first five months of 2025. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Sergey Marchenko warned in May that Kiev’s national debt is nearing $171 billion, approximately equivalent to the country’s gross domestic product.
Ukraine continues to rely heavily on external financial aid to sustain its national budget. Earlier this year, the government failed to restructure a portion of its sovereign debt issued in 2015 and declined to honor a $665 million repayment to private investors in early June.
The country’s economy is also feeling the strain of a labor shortage, as millions have fled to Western nations offering them protection and social benefits. Many men of military age who remain in Ukraine have evaded conscription, which usually means avoiding formal employment and by extension, income taxes.
Von der Leyen blames Russia for no-confidence motion

RT | July 8, 2025
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has dismissed efforts by members of the European Parliament to oust her, branding her critics “conspiracy theorists” and accusing them of acting on behalf of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Von der Leyen is facing a parliamentary motion of no-confidence in her presidency, which is scheduled for a vote on Thursday after being tabled by Romanian MEP Gheorghe Piperea. Addressing the parliament during a debate on Monday, von der Leyen said those backing the proposal were following “the oldest playbook of extremists” and were attempting to undermine public confidence in the EU with “false claims.”
“There is no proof that they have any answers, but there is ample proof that many are supported by our enemies and by their puppet masters in Russia or elsewhere.”
“These are movements fueled by conspiracies, from anti-vaxxers to Putin apologists. And you only have to look at some of the signatories of this motion to understand what I mean.”
In his remarks to parliament, Piperea accused the Commission of centralizing decision-making in a non-democratic fashion and of interfering in the internal affairs of member states.
Russian officials have claimed that EU leaders are using fear tactics to shield themselves from criticism. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dubbed von der Leyen, who is German, a “fuhrer” for her efforts to push a multi-billion euro militarization program on member states. Russia maintains that unlike Western states it does not interfere with other nations’ domestic affairs.
Von der Leyen urged “all the pro-Europeans, pro-democracy forces” in the chamber to support her agenda, arguing that unity was essential to uphold the EU’s foreign policy strength.
Criticism of von der Leyen’s leadership has centered on her handling of the EU’s Covid-19 response during her first term, particularly the lack of transparency in finalizing a 2021 vaccine procurement deal with Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla. Earlier this year, the European Court of Justice found her office at fault for failing to retain text messages exchanged with Bourla and for refusing to release them to journalists with adequate justification.
Piperea is a member of Romania’s AUR party, led by George Simion, who narrowly lost a presidential runoff this year to a pro-EU candidate. The election followed a scrapped first-round vote earlier in 2024, in which outsider Calin Georgescu emerged as the frontrunner. The country’s Constitutional Court annulled the results, citing government allegations of Russian interference. Critics of the EU claim the episode reflects a broader anti-democratic trend allegedly enabled by Brussels.
Backlog of European Defense Plants Hits Record $365 Billion in 2024
Sputnik – 08.07.2025
The backlog of unfulfilled orders at European defense plants reached a record $365 billion in 2024, according to a report by the RosCongress titled “Militarization of Europe: Budgets and Geography of New Production Capacities,” reviewed by Sputnik.
“The boom in defense orders—including artillery shells, missiles, tanks, military aircraft, drones, and ships—has naturally led to an unprecedented volume of unfulfilled orders among European defense manufacturers. The backlog of companies such as KNDS, MBDA, Hensoldt, Leonardo, Rheinmetall, Kongsberg, BAE Systems, Saab, and Thales has grown by 103% compared to 2021, reaching a record $365 billion by the end of 2024,” the report states.
The authors note that between 2021 and 2024, the EU’s total defense spending increased by 31%, reaching $350 billion annually.
“Against the backdrop of Europe’s growing defense capabilities, arms manufacturers—especially European ones—have begun setting new financial records,” the document says.
According to experts, the key beneficiary of Europe’s increased military spending has been the German armored vehicle and ammunition manufacturer, Rheinmetall. Its order backlog grew from $26 billion in 2021 to $67 billion in 2024.
“Germany’s largest arms and ammunition manufacturer has significantly benefited from orders related to Ukraine, as well as the replenishment of military equipment and ammunition stocks in European countries, especially Germany,” the authors explain.
The backlog of the KNDS arms group, which includes France’s Nexter and Germany’s Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, reached $25 billion in 2024, compared to $12.5 billion three years earlier. The conglomerate’s sales grew by 40% compared to 2023.
Similar financial trends are seen across every European arms manufacturer.
“In this situation, most of them are prioritizing the expansion of existing production capacities and confident in sustained demand amid Europe’s $860 billion rearmament push,” the report concludes.
500 organizations funded by Brussels are operating in Hungary to counter Orbán’s government: report
Remix News | July 8, 2025
Hungary’s Office for the Protection of Sovereignty has identified 1,479 Hungarian beneficiaries that participated in projects directly funded by the European Commission.
Of these, the office is monitoring around 500 organizations that are suspected of being funded by Brussels for political activities, namely those directed at the government of Viktor Orbán, the organization said, according to Magyar Nemzet.
The office identified the Brussels “gold diggers” who received the most money from the European Commission: George Soros’ private Central European University (CEU), the Ökotárs Foundation and the Minority Right Group, for example, received billions of forints.
Meanwhile, other organizations received received hundreds of millions of forints: the Power of Humanity, the Hungarian Helsinki Committee, the Background Company, and the Hungarian Jeti Co., Ltd., which publishes 444, Political Capital, the Republikon Institute and the Menedék – Migrants Support Association
The Hungarin office began its investigation into the political lobbying network funded by the European Commission in the spring. It identified the most important Brussels funds – CERV and Horizon – through which large amounts of public money flow to organizations whose real goal is to reduce the Hungarian government’s political power internationally and domestically.
The Office for the Protection of Sovereignty was designed to expose the network of foreign-funded political pressure groups in order to give the Hungarian people a clear picture of who is trying to influence Hungarian politics and how.
It should be noted that while Hungary does fund some international organizations and think tanks, but the power and funding imbalance is astronomical.
The EU has accesses to billions of euros for such activities, on top of billions available from organizations such as the Open Society Foundation, which are all aligned against conservative governments, with Orbán a top target.
On top of that, state-funded media outlets, such as Deutsche Welle, receive close to €400 million in funding per year. The outlet routinely refers to Orbán as an “autocrat” and his government as a “regime” that is “assaulting Hungary’s democracy.”
EU Seeks to Plug Ukraine’s $19Bln Budget Gap in 2026
Sputnik – 08.07.2025
The European Union is urgently exploring options to cover Ukraine’s $19 billion budget deficit in 2026, including by using frozen Russian state assets, as US support for Kiev continues to decline and a ceasefire remains out of reach, the media reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter.
A senior European official involved in discussions with Kiev told the newspaper that many who anticipated a ceasefire agreement in 2025 had to reassess costs, acknowledging a financing “hole” despite efforts to minimize it.
The European Commission has been forced to adjust Ukraine-related spending 2025. A European diplomat told the newspaper that the EU intends to ensure that Kiev’s needs are covered before winter, especially given uncertainty over renewed US support for Kiev.
The commission is reviewing a G7 proposal to provide military aid to Ukraine via bilateral grants, recorded as “off-budget external transfer” but counted toward national defense spending targets.
Another option involves leveraging the existing $50-billion G7 loan scheme, funded by proceeds generated by frozen Russian assets. Additionally, countries are exploring reinvesting Russian assets into riskier categories to maximize returns.
After the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, the European Union and G7 countries froze almost half of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves, totaling nearly 300 billion euros ($347 billion). More than 200 billion euros are in the EU, mainly in the accounts of Euroclear, a Brussels-based clearing house.
The Russian Foreign Ministry has repeatedly condemned the freezing of Russia’s central bank money in Europe as theft. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow could respond by withholding assets held in Russia by Western countries.
It must surely be time to end Russia sanctions and develop a new plan to bring peace and prosperity to Ukraine
By Ian Proud | Strategic Culture Foundation | July 2, 2025
Russia can endure the economic pain of war for longer than Europe. On this basis, more sanctions will only ever embolden Russia to keep fighting rather than making peace. Europe should incentivize peace through sanctions relief, although I see zero chance of that happening right now.
This terrible war in Ukraine must end sooner or later. It has claimed over one million people to death or injury, mostly since February 2022, but also, in fact, since the onset of the Ukraine crisis in February 2014.
Clearly, both Russia and Ukraine need to find incentives to end the fighting. One such incentive relates to sanctions. The whole basis of sanctions against Russia is that they will impose a cost on Russia for continuing to wage war in Ukraine.
When the 18th sanctions package was proposed on 10 June, Kaja Kallas announced that ‘we do all this because sanctions work, every sanction weakens Russia’s ability to fight.’ She also said, ‘Russia has lost tens of billions in oil revenues. Its economy is shrinking, and its GDP has dropped.’
And yet, these assertions do not appear to be true.
Firstly, Russia’s economy grew by 3.6% in 2024. That compares to 0.9% growth for the Eurozone and 1.1% for the United Kingdom.
On exports, in the first four months of 2025, Russia exported $39.5 billion more goods than it imported and maintained a healthy overall current account surplus of $21.9 billion. Since its default in 1998, Russia has become an exporting powerhouse and there hasn’t been a single year since that time in which it has not recorded a healthy surplus, including during the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID Pandemic.
There is no evidence that sanctions have had any real effect on Russia’s ability to generate large surpluses of trade each year. This boosts its tax revenues and provides the scope to increase spending without significant reliance on borrowing.
The overall value of Russian exports has fallen from their peak in 2012 when the oil price was consistently above $100 to the barrel. But the point is, Russia also now imports significantly less than it did then, largely out of a drive to import substitution which started in 2014, meaning that its overall balance is comparable.
It is for this reason that Russia’s international reserve position has improved by around $80 billion since the war started, to $680 billion today (which includes the currently frozen assets of around $300 billion).
No sanction imposed on Russia has shifted the fundamentals of Russia’s economic model and, I believe, no sanction ever will. And yet the Europeans have been sanctioning Russia for eleven years already without recognising this.
Yes, Russia has undoubtedly endured economic pain from sanctions. Prior to the Ukraine crisis, the European Union accounted for over 40% of all Russian trade and most of that business has been progressively lost over the past eleven years. That triggered huge shifts in the structure of Russia’s economy, arguably making it more dependant on domestic investment and pivoting its trade decisively away from Europe and towards Asia.
Sanctioning individuals and companies prompted huge changes in the beneficial ownership and board membership of the largest Russian firms. This triggered a bizarre whack-a-mole policy in Europe as it tried to sanction ever changing figures on Russian company structures.
Yet, Russia’s continued strength in trade allows it to keep pumping billions into the war economy each year at a time when Ukraine constantly teeters on the brink of bankruptcy, propped up only by European donations, as I have written many times before.
Europe will never be able to tip to scales so far in favour of Ukraine that it has the economic reserves to outslug Russia, whether the war continued for one year or ten. Only a fantasist would believe that though, unfortunately, there appears no shortage of those in Brussels.
Sanctions have become an end and policy makers are now so invested in sanctions, and so lacking in ideas, that they continue despite the obvious self-harm they are causing to the European project, not only economically, but also politically and culturally.
Politicians in Central Europe are growing increasingly concerned by this direction of policy, because of which a battle is brewing about whether the EU approves the eighteenth package of sanctions against Russia, first proposed on 10 June.
Slovakia and Hungary are currently blocking the package because it would threaten their energy security. At an EU Foreign Ministers’ meeting last week, Peter Szijjarto, Hungary’s Foreign Minister accused Brussels bureaucrats of hypocrisy, claiming that further energy sanctions would ‘cripple Hungary’s energy security’ and increase domestic energy prices by 2-3 fold. Hungary remains heavily reliant on Russian gas in particular for its domestic needs. And a complete ban would have huge consequences for consumers and Hungarian industries, at least in the short-medium term as the economy transitioned.
So, while EU Ministers extended all other EU sanctions against Russia for a year, the 18th sanctions package remains in limbo. German officials appear confident that an agreement can be reached this week, one assumes, by making concessions to Slovakia and Hungary on energy imports. In typical muddling through fashion, a backroom deal will be struck.
But the real question is shouldn’t the EU abandon sanctions altogether?
Sanctions can only succeed if the sanctioning party is willing to accept a level of economic pain comparable to that inflicted on the opponent, such that the opponent decides to back down or at least moderate the actions which prompted the sanctions.
That has never looked likely to happen with Russia. It’s not only that sanctions appear to have caused more pain to European economies than to Russia, most visibly through crippling energy prices. But that Russia has never looked like it would back down in the face of sanctions, and now pressure is growing within the EU for it to back down.
And, not only has Europe had to endure the direct economic cost to itself from the sanctions it has imposed, but also to absorb the additional cost of keeping Ukraine’s economy afloat during wartime. This pressure will only grow as the USA reduces its financial commitment to the war; on current levels, Ukraine needs at least $40 billion in European funding each year just to maintain the current tempo of a war that it is losing.
As we are currently witnessing in the UK with labour Members of Parliament rebelling against planned cuts to welfare benefits, this will have political consequences in Europe too, as anti-war parties gain more support.
Russia only has to maintain its economy from a significantly stronger baseline position. It won’t experience crippling high energy prices, given its self-sufficiency. Nor will it have to reach consensus with other countries on retaliatory measures taken against Europe.
On this basis, imposing more sanctions on Russia will only embolden President Putin to keep fighting. Rather than putting Ukraine is a position of greater strengthen, they are, in fact, putting Europe in a position of ongoing decay.
There may come a theoretical point in the future in which the massive fiscal investment Russia is making to sustain the war overheats its economy to such an extent that it starts to cause unbearable economic and political pressure. But that point does not appear to have been reached, nor does it appear close to being reached anytime soon.
And, amidst all the posturing, there is no real indication that Europe has Ukraine’s best interests really at heart. Ukraine is in most respects now a failed state. While Zelensky maintains the semblance of autocratic rule, he is in fact kept on life support by the continuance of the war. Ending the war would create a moment of both huge economic and democratic opportunity, for Ukraine, but also massive risk, as a disgruntled and defeated army demobilised to find the country bereft of quality jobs and good incomes.
If the Eurocrats in Brussels put all of their energies and resources into ending the war as soon as possible and helping Ukraine to emerge and rebuild in the best possible way, they might just about be able to stave of a much bigger catastrophe for that country. That would begin with setting out a plan to remove sanctions upon the agreement of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
Right now, though, I see zero chance of that happening.
