France, Spain install radars in south Lebanon to ‘monitor Hezbollah’: Report
The Cradle | August 21, 2024
French and Spanish radars installed by UNIFIL in the south of Lebanon are being used to target the resistance on behalf of Israel, Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar reported on 15 August.
“A week ago, an Israeli drone targeted two Hezbollah fighters in Naqoura. Eyewitnesses said the drone was not noticed or heard before the surprise attack, which directed attention to the new French radar that was raised above the UNIFIL base in Mount Naqoura, and whether it was used to monitor the movements of the resistance,” Al-Akhbar wrote.
The French radar, the “marine radar” as the daily refers to it, was installed in the south two weeks ago at the request of UNIFIL Chief of Staff, Frenchman Cédric du Gardin, it says.
“Before the end of his term at the end of last July, the former French Chief of Staff sent a letter ‘reprimanding his officers because of their failure to detect any drone, air defense missile or rocket’ launched by the resistance,” the report adds.
Prior to this, a Spanish radar was installed in the Blat Plain in southern Lebanon’s Marjayoun.
Israel “asked the current UNIFIL commander, the Spaniard Arludo Lazarro, to install the radar immediately after his appointment two years ago. However, local Lebanese pressures postponed the decision until Army Commander Joseph Aoun and the government expressed their approval of it, with Defense Minister Maurice Slim refusing,” sources told the newspaper.
The Spanish radar monitors the occupied Shebaa Farms and Kfar Shuba hills on the Lebanese border.
The two radars “complement the French radar system installed since after the July 2006 aggression on Lebanon” in the vicinity of Bint Jbeil, the daily reported.
According to the report, UNIFIL’s navy has also joined the intelligence campaign to make up for the blind spot created by Hezbollah’s attacks on Israeli surveillance sites and equipment.
“A German warship, which has been in command of UNIFIL’s naval forces since 2001, is stationed off the coast of Naqoura. No one knows who is boarding or disembarking off of it or using it for reconnaissance, especially in the area extending from Tyre to Naqoura, which has witnessed several assassinations,” field sources told the newspaper.
UNIFIL has been operating in Lebanon since the first Israeli invasion of 1978. Despite this, their forces failed to end an 18-year occupation and have attempted to expand their areas of influence without proper authorization.
Many in Lebanon have for years accused UNIFIL of acting to suppress resistance in the south on behalf of Israel.
Last year, Washington and London had been trying, on behalf of Israel, to secure Lebanon’s approval for a UN Security Council resolution ensuring freedom of movement for UNIFIL across the country, without accompaniment from the Lebanese army as is the law.
“The US and Israel were unable to implement the freedom of movement clause despite the enormous pressure on Lebanon,” Munir Shehadeh, Lebanon’s former government coordinator for UNIFIL, told Al-Akhbar.
A strategic shift: Will Palestinian groups return to ‘martyrdom attacks’ inside Israel?
By Ramzy Baroud | MEMO | August 20, 2024
Yesterday, the Palestinian Resistance Movement Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad warned Israel that they plan to return to ‘martyrdom attacks’ inside Israel.
“The Brigades affirm that martyrdom operations within the occupied territories will return to the forefront as long as the massacres by the occupation, the displacement of civilians and the assassination policy continue,” a joint statement by Al-Qassam Brigades and Al-Quds Brigades said.
Palestinian groups have refrained from using martyrdom attacks, or suicide bombings, as it is often called by mainstream media, as a central piece of their ongoing resistance against Israel.
The warning followed an explosion that rocked Tel Aviv on the evening of Sunday.
Initially, Israeli media conveyed a degree of confusion regarding what had transpired in the Israeli capital, before an Israeli police commander announced that there was a 99 per cent chance that the operation was “an attempted terror attack”.
Later, Israel said that the attacker may have originated from the Nablus area of the southern West Bank.
The attack and the announcement of responsibility by Hamas and the Islamic Jihad the following day are significant and could become the beginning of a strategic shift by Palestinians in their ongoing war against the Israeli occupation.
But why would Palestinians return to such operations?
Since 7 October, the Israeli war on Gaza has expanded to reach other domains, thus complicating the mission of the Israeli army, which has been overstretched to fight on several fronts.
While the war in Gaza itself remains the main battlefield, other war fronts began escalating with time, mainly the border war between the Lebanese Resistance Movement, Hezbollah, and the Israeli occupation army.
To prevent the West Bank from turning into a major front for the resistance, the Israeli army began carrying out bloody, but focused, attacks on Palestinian resistance brigades, which operate mostly in the northern West Bank.
Geographically isolated and operating mostly in small groups, Palestinian fighters underwent a bloody, disproportionate war against the Israeli army.
The Israeli occupation army’s confidence was buoyed by the fact that security forces and intelligence belonging to the Palestinian Authority openly cooperated with the Israeli military in their attempt to crush the resistance.
The degree of cooperation reached its zenith on 26 July, when PA security forces besieged the 26-year-old leader of the Tulkarm Brigades, and other fighters, in the Thabet Thabet Hospital in Tulkarm.
If it were not for hundreds of ordinary Palestinians who rushed to the hospital to rescue their youth, the fighters would have been apprehended, if not even worse.
But Israel’s military campaign to crush the resistance in the West Bank was hardly a success. According to Al Jazeera, 100 Palestinian operations were carried out in the last month alone.
Meanwhile, the resistance in Gaza has proved its durability, moving from the stage of defence to that of counter-attacks on more than one occasion. The operation by Hamas’s Al-Qassam fighters targeting Israeli forces inside the fortified Netzarim area in central Gaza, on Sunday, was a case in point.
These developments have been taking place in the larger context of the widening confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel, with the former extending its pinpointed operations to reach Nahariya, among other areas, in northern Israel.
Despite all the setbacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has managed to reverse his dwindling numbers among potential voters. According to a poll conducted by the Israeli newspaper Maariv on 9 August, the Likud Party, led by Netanyahu, would be the largest party in the Knesset if elections were held today. This is the first time such results have been seen since 7 October.
A combination of factors led to the resurgence of Netanyahu in opinion polls.
First, the Israeli leader’s main rival, Benny Gantz has failed to galvanize on the anti-Netanyahu and anti-government popular sentiments starting on 7 October.
Second, Netanyahu’s ability to guarantee US support for his aggressive regional policies helped reassure the Israeli public.
Third, the direct involvement of the US-British and other western navies in confronting Yemen’s Ansarallah – Houthis – in the Red Sea has partly downgraded the geopolitical threat of the Yemeni solidarity with the Palestinians.
Fourth, the daring assassination of top Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on 31 July, and the assassination of leading Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr the day before, allowed Netanyahu to sell the idea, however temporary, that Israel has regained its so-called ‘deterrence’.
And, finally, despite the interception of occasional missiles beyond the Gaza Envelope or Israel’s northmost regions, Israeli society in the central areas of the country has learned to adapt to the new reality of the war.
While the Israeli army is losing an unprecedented number of soldiers and equipment on multiple fronts, not all Israelis are experiencing that loss in their everyday lives.
The opposite is true for Palestinians and Lebanese.
For the former, the genocide in Gaza has turned into a daily reality, and the Israeli occupation forces’s war on the West Bank has proved to be the most violent since the Second Intifada or Uprising of 2002.
Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Israel continues to target civilian areas as a matter of course, thus constantly challenging the rules of engagement that have governed the relationship between the Israeli army and the Lebanese resistance for years.
The new status quo may have assured Netanyahu that he might be able to carry on with his war in Gaza, reject any reasonable ceasefire proposal and maintain low-intensity warfare with Lebanon.
Netanyahu would also like to see the US-British war on Yemen escalate into an all-out war against Iran.
The Palestinian warning of their intention to return to striking deep inside Israel is meant to disturb Netanyahu’s calculations.
By denying Israelis any sense of security in major cities inside Israel, the Israeli public could, once more, turn against Netanyahu for failing to deliver on any of his lofty promises.
It remains unclear whether Sunday’s truck bombing was the exception or the start of a new norm. Either way, Netanyahu and his security apparatus must be aware of how such a move could prove equally costly to all of Israel’s losing wars, on all fronts.
Hezbollah reveals massive underground base, reminds Israel retaliation imminent
The Cradle | August 16, 2024
Hezbollah released a video on 16 August showcasing a highly secretive underground facility, which serves as a missile storage and launch site.
The video is titled “Our mountains are our storage sites,” indicating that the underground facility is part of Hezbollah’s large and sophisticated tunnel network built underneath southern Lebanon’s mountainous terrain.
The facility is named Imad-4, after the late Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh, who was assassinated by Israel in 2008.
The video starts by showing motorcycles and trucks equipped with missile launch pads moving through the facility’s long tunnels. Later, one of the trucks is seen positioning to fire missiles out of the facility as a tunnel entrance opens up.
Al Mayadeen said on Friday that the facility’s name, Imad-4, indicates that other sites like it exist.
It sends the message that Hezbollah “is not afraid to go to war, and is prepared for it if [Israel] decides to go too far in escalation and aggression,” the outlet wrote.
It also serves as the “obituary” of Israel’s “battle between wars,” the campaign of airstrikes on Syria which aims to stifle the flow of weapons to Hezbollah.
“The capabilities of the Islamic Resistance, especially missiles, are fully prepared to defend Lebanon … the secrecy of the site allows Hezbollah’s missile capabilities to be immune from any preemptive Israeli strikes,” as well as from Israeli espionage and intelligence warfare, according to Al Mayadeen.
The video is a reminder that “even if the retaliation for the targeting of the southern suburbs and the assassination of martyr Fuad Shukr, and the killing of civilians is delayed for several reasons, it will surely come,” Al Mayadeen went on to say.
In the video, excerpts from speeches by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah are heard. “Our next battle with Israel will span across the entirety of occupied Palestine,” Nasrallah is heard saying in the clip.
Hebrew newspaper Maariv referred to the video as Hezbollah’s “psychological pressure” on Israel.
Israeli journalist for the Ynet news site, Lior Ben Ari, called the video “disturbing” and said it should be “examined in depth.”
“The video revealed an underground facility called “Emad 4” that launches missiles underground, but not only. The video reveals huge tunnels, lit, equipped with computers, which allow motorcycles and trucks to pass easily. Did someone say Philadelphi [Corridor]?” he added sarcastically, referring to Hamas’ tunnel network under the Gaza–Egypt border, seemingly indicating that the Hezbollah facility is much more sophisticated.
Hezbollah is known to have a large and advanced secretive network of tunnels under south Lebanon.
In February, French newspaper Liberation reported that the network is remarkably sophisticated, spanning hundreds of kilometers and even reaching into Syria.
Dr Andreas Krieg, an assistant professor at King’s College London, told The Cradle last month: “There are different types of tunnels: surface-level tunnels used for moving operatives and materials, which can be destroyed from the air; and deeper, concrete-reinforced tunnels that serve as command centers and armories. The deeper tunnels, some up to 60 meters underground, are almost impervious to Israeli airstrikes and were built with support from North Korea and Iran.”
These tunnels constituted a major obstacle for Israel in the 2006 war.
The new video comes as Tel Aviv is in high anticipation over Hezbollah’s promised retaliation to the killing of top commander Fuad Shukr and several civilians, including children, in Beirut late last month – which was followed by the assassination of Hamas chief and lead negotiator Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
The Islamic Republic has also promised to retaliate to Haniyeh’s assassination.
Hezbollah unveils underground Imad 4 missile facility
Al Mayadeen | August 16, 2024
Hezbollah, the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon, has released a new video showcasing a sophisticated underground facility and an extensive tunnel network, complete with missile launchpads.
The video titled “Our Mountains, Our Strongholds” features the Imad 4 facility, which highlights the Resistance’s missile capabilities.
The footage reveals Hezbollah freedom fighters inside a sophisticated underground complex, with visible signs marking the facility as Imad 4, and displaying the Quranic verse: “Prepare against them whatever you can of [military] power.”
The video also shows missile trucks moving from within the facility toward a blast door, preparing them for launch.
In the video excerpts from a speech by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah were used, during which he asserts that “the resistance is stronger than ever since its inception in the region.”
Al Mayadeen’s sources revealed that Imad 4 features a state-of-the-art technical system and a secure communication network that links it to the outside world, allowing it to receive launch orders within minutes, adding that the network’s communications are said to be highly encrypted for added security.
The sources also disclosed that the facility is equipped with a comprehensive logistics team, as well as dedicated construction, security, and backup launch teams. These teams operate based on pre-determined coordinates for launching operations.
In addition, the facility, according to exclusive sources, is outfitted with a field hospital and enough supplies to sustain its occupants for a period ranging from eight months to a year.
The same sources also noted that the Resistance maintains larger, more critical facilities designed to accommodate larger and heavier rockets, including precision missiles.
It is worth noting that the video comes shortly after US special envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Beirut, warning that time is running out to secure a Gaza ceasefire and a deal for the release of Israeli captives, which could also bring an end to the situation on the Lebanese-Palestinian borders.
Concurrently, parties involved in the Doha negotiations are set to continue their meetings on Friday, as the ongoing Israeli genocide in Gaza nears its 11-month mark.
Israeli economy in chaos in anticipation of Iran, Hezbollah responses
Al Mayadeen | August 15, 2024
The Israeli occupation’s anticipation of Hezbollah and Iranian response to Israeli assassinations carried out in late July has pushed the regime into “economic chaos”, Israeli media outlets reported.
The economic affairs commentator for Israeli broadcaster Channel 13 underlined that the past two weeks have “exhausted” the Israeli market. Several economic events were canceled in Israeli-occupied territories, while others were reduced due to the state of anxiety experienced among settlers.
Economic activities have also been affected by the operational measures issued by Israeli authorities, in preparation for retaliatory strikes by Hezbollah and Iran.
The Israeli commentator highlighted the significant losses that affected the Israeli tourism sector, largely linked to international flight cancellations to Israeli-occupied airports. An increasing number of Israeli settlers have been stranded in other countries due to the wide-scale cancelation of flights. The possibilities of responses launched by the Axis of Resistance have also impacted hotels and other hospitality and tourism businesses in the northern Israeli-occupied territories, which may be directly affected by future strikes.
The commentator warned that these challenging conditions and operational measures, which are also impacting the medical and energy sectors, could persist well into September.
If the wait continues into next month, the Israeli educational sector will also be severely affected by operational measures, forcing institutions to “maneuver within combat scenarios.”
Cracks in the Dome: Israel’s security mirage
The Cradle | August 14, 2024
The Iron Dome, touted as Israel’s most-effective defense shield, was designed to project an image of security and technological superiority. Promoted as a cutting-edge mobile air defense system, it was intended to symbolize an impenetrable barrier safeguarding the occupation state from external threats.
However, the reality reveals a different picture: much like a child in a knight costume – impressive against plastic swords but utterly defenseless against real weapons – the Iron Dome excels mainly against the relatively crude weapons of the Palestinian resistance in Gaza.
Israel’s carefully-crafted image of its most prized defensive weapon is part of a broader branding effort, rooted in techniques pioneered by Edward Bernays. The occupation state has positioned itself as a cosmopolitan, progressive, and democratic society – in stark contrast to neighboring West Asian states, which it portrays as violent and repressive.
The Iron Dome is not just a defense system but also a psychological construct designed to reinforce the image of an invulnerable entity under constant threat from less enlightened neighbors.
A crumbling shield in the north
Despite its reputation, the Iron Dome’s performance has often fallen short. Numerous videos have surfaced showing malfunctions – the Tamir missiles performing erratic maneuvers, exploding near civilian areas, or being triggered by false alarms and causing damage to infrastructure.
These failures contrast starkly with Israel’s claims of a 90–99 percent interception rate. Professor Emeritus Theodore Postal of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) offers a vastly different assessment. “I would say that the intercept rate is at best 4 or 5 percent,” Postal said in an interview with the Boston Globe last October.
In a 2018 study published in the Journal of Global Security Studies, Michael Armstrong also questions the Iron Dome’s touted “90 to 99 percent” interception rate. For starters, he clarifies that “the interception rate is the percentage of rockets destroyed before they hit defended areas; it ignores rockets over undefended areas.”
In other words, the defense system is, from the onset, only targeting a small portion of the rockets fired. For example, Israeli officials claimed that of the approximately 1,000 projectiles fired into Israel by Hamas during November 2012’s Operation Pillar of Defense operation, Iron Dome identified two-thirds as “not posing a threat” and only intercepted 90 percent of the remaining 300 rockets. Armstrong points out further holes in the calculations of Iron Dome proponents:
The empirical analysis suggests that Iron Dome batteries intercepted less than 32 percent of all hazardous rockets during Pillar of Defense, but between 59 and 75 percent during Protective Edge … The calculations further suggest the number of rockets hitting populated areas during Pillar of Defense may have been understated. The number of threats to populated areas, on the other hand, may have been overstated. This implies that Iron Dome’s effective interception rate may have been significantly lower than reported.
The situation is particularly dire in northern occupied territories, where the town of Kiryat Shmona – a settlement once believed to be under the Iron Dome’s protection – has seen its population flee from rising threats.
Thousands of residents have abandoned their homes, exposing the vulnerabilities the Iron Dome was supposed to eliminate. With Hezbollah expanding its rules of engagement, the number of displaced persons is likely to rise, further exposing the system’s inadequacies.
As Israel desperately scrambles to expand its defense options, the new solutions prove equally flawed, leaving the population vulnerable beneath a defense system that no longer lives up to its myth. The once-vaunted shield is crumbling, and with it, the carefully constructed narrative of invincibility that has long underpinned Israel’s security strategy.
Iron Dome’s cancer curse
Beneath the surface of Israel’s Iron Dome lies a darker, more ominous reality – one that threatens not just the myth of invincibility but the lives of those operating this shield. A 2021 investigation by Yediot Ahronoth revealed serious allegations about the health risks faced by occupation soldiers stationed near the Iron Dome’s powerful radar systems.
These radar systems, nicknamed “the chipper” and “the toaster” by those who work near them, emit intense heat, turning their surroundings into an invisible crucible. Several soldiers have come forward with harrowing testimonies of life-threatening illnesses they believe are linked to their service.
Ran Mazur, who was diagnosed with bone cancer a year after his discharge, described the excruciating pain that gnawed at him during his service, pain that military doctors all too easily dismissed.
Yonatan Chaimovich likened the experience of standing near the radar to his body “boiling from the inside,” a haunting metaphor that captures the unseen dangers of their exposure. Shir Tahar and Omer Hili Levy, both of whom developed cancer after their service, are among several who believe their illnesses are inextricably linked to their time spent in the shadow of the Iron Dome.
Despite these accounts, the Israeli military has steadfastly denied any unusual increase in cancer rates among Iron Dome personnel. They claim that their extensive monitoring and safety protocols have shown no significant difference in morbidity between Iron Dome soldiers and those in other military units.
But the numbers tell a different story: in 2011, out of 240 soldiers who enlisted in three training cycles for the Iron Dome, at least six developed cancer either during or shortly after their service – a statistic that raises questions about the true cost of operating this defense system.
Since 7 October, no new investigation has ventured to uncover how many within Israel’s occupation forces have fallen victim to the silent menace of tumors during this latest surge of conflict.
High-tech illusions
If the Iron Dome was not riddled with flaws, Israeli military strategists would not be rushing to explore alternatives to maintain the state’s illusion of invulnerability. Hezbollah’s Katyusha barrages, though seemingly primitive, have been tactically deployed to overwhelm the Iron Dome and pinpoint its locations, forcing Israel to reconsider its defense strategy.
Enter the “Magen Or,” or Iron Beam – a name that translates to “Shield of Light” in Hebrew. Developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, this represents the latest attempt by the occupation state to stay ahead of the Axis of Resistance and exposes Israel’s growing insecurity.
Unlike the Iron Dome, which relies on costly interceptor missiles – at around $50,000 each – the Iron Beam promises to neutralize threats using a high-powered laser – a concept that seems straight out of science fiction.
The Iron Beam, however, is still largely experimental and untested in real combat. Deployed on the Gaza front in late 2023, it has yet to prove itself as a reliable defense system in the chaos of war.
Israel’s embrace of laser technology, such as Magen Or, is part of a broader trend in the defense industry, driven not just by innovation but also by substantial aid packages from the US. These foreign funds, funneled through powerful lobbies like AIPAC and J Street, contribute to Israel’s portrayal as a technological powerhouse.
Yet, this image is less a testament to domestic ingenuity and more a product of vast financial resources often spent on costly projects that may not withstand the test of real-world conflict.
High-stake risks
The Iron Beam’s range is limited to about 10 kilometers and falters under adverse weather conditions – an Achilles heel that could prove disastrous in a full-scale conflict. The system requires vast amounts of energy, provided by a large generator, to produce the laser beams necessary for its operation.
This logistical challenge and the necessity of maintaining sophisticated infrastructure make the Iron Beam seem doomed to fail under real combat pressures.
Tel Aviv’s shift toward advanced technologies like the Iron Beam reveals a deeper issue within its military strategy. By focusing on high-tech defenses, Israel addresses symptoms rather than the root causes of its ongoing conflict. Reliance on unproven technology carries the risk of catastrophic failure, especially when combined with Israel’s recent shift toward riskier strategies.
Adding to the complexity is the Scorpius G electronic warfare system, another high-tech solution touted by Israel. Developed by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), Scorpius G is designed to detect, classify, locate, and jam advanced radar systems.
However, like the Iron Beam, Scorpius G’s performance in the field remains unproven, further illustrating the precariousness of Israel’s defense posture – one that could ultimately leave it vulnerable in its rushed quest to maintain a strategic edge.
As the region’s Axis of Resistance continues its operations with precision and effectiveness, and as Israeli settlers in occupied territories face mass evacuations, the pressure on these new defense systems to deliver is immense.
Whether they will provide the promised protection or collapse under the weight of expectations remains an open question – one with potentially dire consequences for Israel’s security and stability.
US enlists Cyprus, Jordan, Greece as ‘defensive platforms’ for Israel: Report
The Cradle | August 9, 2024
Washington has enlisted the island nation of Cyprus in its efforts to protect Israel from potential retaliations by Iran and Hezbollah to the recent Israeli attacks on Tehran and Beirut, Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar reported on 9 August.
A US military delegation visited Cyprus this week and held urgent meetings with Cypriot defense and intelligence officials.
“The delegation was accompanied by a logistical, military and security force carrying with it a large amount of equipment, weapons and modern air defense systems, in addition to helicopters,” Al-Akhbar wrote.
Cypriot officials said they had never seen such quantities of weapons before, the report went on to say.
According to the report, the US informed Cyprus that this equipment was “related to tensions in the region” and that the island would serve as “one of the interception platforms against expected attacks from Iran, Yemen and Hezbollah.”
It adds that the UK has reinforced its bases in Cyprus, and has sent experts and air defense equipment to the country.
The UK has two large military bases in Cyprus, which are British sovereign territory and make up 2.5 percent of the island’s area.
Germany has also reportedly expressed an intention to deploy naval forces to Cyprus and to assist in evacuations in case of a large-scale war.
“What further confused Cypriot authorities was the US request for joint military drills with American forces on the island’s land and seas … drills do not happen suddenly, but rather require a program that is prepared at least a year in advance, not 48 hours in advance,” Al-Akhbar said.
“Cypriot officials have been keen to communicate with … the axis of resistance, especially Hezbollah, to convey the message that what is happening ‘is happening against their will, and that they do not want to involve their country in any war.’ They expressed their fear that the island could become an arena for a confrontation with Iran, Hezbollah, and even Ansarallah.”
Yemen’s army and Ansarallah resistance movement is also preparing a response to the Israeli attack on Hodeidah port last month.
The Al-Akhbar report states that these messages are unlikely to change anything in the event of a wide-scale war, given that Cypriot authorities are also coordinating directly with Tel Aviv.
“Opening Cypriot airports and bases to the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon would mean that the Cypriot government is part of the war, and the resistance will deal with it as part of the war,” Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech in June, warning Cyprus against taking part in an expanded Israeli war on Lebanon.
Cyprus and Israel have stepped up military cooperation in recent years as part of a joint declaration signed in 2017 and have also carried out several joint military and naval exercises. In 2022, the two states carried out joint military exercises on the island nation’s territory. Cyprus denied Tel Aviv’s declaration at the time that the exercises were meant to simulate war inside Lebanon.
Hebrew newspaper Israel Hayom reported on 11 March this year that Israel is seeking to establish a port in the Cypriot city of Larnaca in case the port of Haifa is closed in a war with Hezbollah.
According to the Al-Akhbar report, Greece and Jordan are also deeply involved in Washington’s defensive plans for Israel.
In April, Jordan played a significant role in intercepting Iranian missiles and drones which targeted Israel in response to its destruction of the Iranian consulate in Damascus and the killing of several of its officials that month.
Israel killed Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on 31 July, as he was visiting Iran as a diplomatic guest while attending the inauguration of the country’s new president. A day earlier, Israel killed a top Hezbollah commander in the Lebanese capital, targeting him in a residential building while killing several civilians, including children, in the process.
Hezbollah and Iran have both vowed severe retaliations to the illegal attacks.
De-escalation vs. self-defense: Double standards or racism?
By Jamal Kanj | Al Mayadeen | August 9, 2024
On the evening of July 30, an Israeli drone targeted a residential building in the Southern Suburb of Beirut, killing three women and two children, and injuring 74 civilians. “Israel” claimed the attack was aimed at an officer of the Lebanese Resistance. Targeting residential infrastructures outside a war zone is part of the Israeli army’s Artificial Intelligence (AI) program, known as “Lavender.” The AI Lavender program, as we have seen in Gaza, koshers the killing of up to 100 civilians or entire families in order to assassinate a single commander.
Less than 24 hours later, Israeli agents violated Iran’s sovereignty and assassinated Palestinian leader Ismail Haniyeh during his official visit to Tehran, like when “Israel” bombed the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus last April, killing 8 military advisors and an equal number of Syrian civilians and Iranian consular staff.
Rather than condemning the Israeli aggression, Western capitals called on the victims (Iran and the Lebanese Resistance) to de-escalate and exercise restraint. “No one should escalate this conflict,” Blinken told reporters on August 6. “We’ve been engaged in intense diplomacy with allies and partners, communicating that message directly to Iran.”
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock took to X calling on “especially #Iran, to exercise restraint and de-escalate for the sake of the people in the region.”
Britain and France doubled down on the foreign violation of Iran’s sovereignty during the emergency UN Security Council meeting on July 31, blaming Iran, the victim in this case, for the dangerous escalation in the region. According to various resources, French President Emmanuel Macron told his new Iranian counterpart to end the “logic of reprisals” and for the “protection of civilian populations.”
Western powers called for de-escalation in response to the Israeli aggression against Iran and Lebanon. On the other hand, they defended “Israel’s” right to “self-defense” following the Palestinian revolt against the Israeli siege on October 7. Leaders from more than 14 countries, 8 including heads of state paid homage to declare solidarity with “Israel”. Yet, not a single Western leader called on “Israel” to de-escalate.
If “Israel” is perceived as the target of an attack, Western leaders promote Israeli “logic of reprisals” under the pretext of “self-defense”. Meanwhile, when others are targeted by “Israel”, then and only then, de-escalation is deemed necessary for the “protection of civilian populations.”
Returning to the German Foreign Minister’s recent post on X. When “Israel” was targeted on October 7, Germany saw no need to de-escalate “for the sake of the (Palestinian) people in the region.” De-escalation was necessary though, “for the sake of the (Israeli) people…” following the Israeli attack on Iran and Beirut.
Ironically, the call by Western leaders to “de-escalate” is not a genuine endeavor to avoid a wider conflict, but rather their proclivity to sanction Israeli wars. They sanctioned “Israel’s” war of genocide when they excused its aggression as “self-defense” and then refused to call for a ceasefire for more than six months. They empowered “Israel” by waging a proxy war against Yemen on its behalf. They enabled “Israel’s” defiance by continuing to supply the armament used to kill and maim the children of Gaza. They enabled Israeli-induced famine against 2.3 million people by refusing to accept the findings of the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court. More importantly, they enabled Israeli intransigence when, following the Israeli murder in Tehran and Beirut, the US president ordered US military deployments in the Middle East to defend “Israel” “against all threats from Iran.”
The above is not merely a double standard, but congenital Western racism toward the perceived “lesser” than equal people, for the US Administration, Canada, Britain, and the European Union’s unadulterated racism has for decades enabled “Israel’s” arrogance, both materially and diplomatically.
By the same Western definition of the right to self-defense, the Iranian government, the Lebanese Resistance, and Yemen have every right to exercise their right, according to international law following Israeli attacks on Tehran, Beirut, and Hodeidah in Yemen. This is more so than what Western leaders erroneously bestowed on an occupying power following October 7.
The Resistance is undoubtedly aware of Western powers’ efforts to delay and/or diffuse the response to Israeli extrajudicial assassinations. European leaders, for instance, have sent direct and indirect equivocal messages to Iran expressing a willingness to open a new chapter after the election of the new reformist president.
Arab and Western leaders have also cautioned the Resistance in Lebanon against taking any action that could jeopardize the “progress” in the ceasefire talks, when, in reality, the opposite is true. The Palestinians are in a stronger negotiating position with support from the Lebanese and the Yemeni fronts, not by the groveling of Arab regimes to Israeli enablers.
In fact, as it became clear that retaliation against “Israel” was imminent, the US, Qatar, and Egypt scrambled a statement on August 8 calling for a new round of ceasefire negotiations. This announcement was almost certainly coordinated in advance with “Israel”, as evidenced by Netanyahu’s unusually swift agreement to send a delegation “in order to finalize the details and implement the framework agreement.”
It is almost certain that the Resistance understands that all this is a ruse and outright prevarication by the Biden administration and two vassal Arab countries to muddy the waters, allowing “Israel” to literally get away with new murders. The aggrieved parties are expected to respond because allowing “Israel” to cross this redline would embolden Israeli intransigence and afford it a new opportunity to cross more dangerous redlines that could lead to a more destructive war in the future.
In the last decade, “Israel” has murdered at least five Iranian scientists, including its top civilian nuclear program chief Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020. These assassinations came at a very little cost, if any, for “Israel”. However, the recent case of murdering an invited guest crosses a different redline that “Israel” and the West are unable to comprehend. In the East, protecting your guest is an honor that must be defended at all costs.
It’s implausible that the forces of Resistance would be dissuaded by the new American/Israeli gambit or the misplaced racist “de-escalation” rhetoric from the other Israeli enablers. According to public pronouncements from Iran, Yemen, and Hezbollah in Lebanon, a proportional retaliation against apartheid “Israel” is inevitable.
Patience is a virtue, and as some have suggested, ambiguity and waiting it out are part of that broader strategy. While that might be true, there is, however, a cost-benefit dynamic related to the time taken to make a decision. The Resistance is likely aware that further vacillation would decrease the benefits and fetter the momentum for an in-kind reprisal against “Israel”.
Why The Zionist Entity Decided To Take The Risk Of Regional War?
By Robert Inlakesh | Al Mayadeen | August 8, 2024
Despite the Israeli-US alliance pulling off two high-profile assassinations within hours and posed as if they are ready for an all-out war, it is clear that they could only handle a regional conflagration which would quickly end in a stalemate. If this escalation goes the wrong way, however, there are only two options left for them, and both are terrible.
The Zionist Entity was faced with a choice, after failing to reach victory in Gaza: either end the war or escalate. It was clear from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to the US Congress that the leader of the Entity was bent on escalation and that he would receive bipartisan support in the United States for carrying out actions designed to achieve the desired goal.
Finding their justification in the massacre of 12 Syrian-Druze children in the occupied Golan Heights, quickly jumping to accuse Hezbollah, the Israeli military launched their attack on a multi-story building in southern Beirut. While the Zionists attempted to use the blood of the indigenous people of the Golan, living in Majdal Shams, for their own propaganda purposes, the people refused to allow them and blamed the Zionists for the massacre in their village, as Hezbollah vehemently denied any involvement.
The timing of the massacre came at a convenient time for the Zionist Regime, as the Israeli PM was at the tail end of his trip to the United States. Shortly afterward, the Israelis murdered seven Lebanese and injured around 80 in their attack on the southern suburbs of Beirut. The primary target was Hezbollah military leader Fouad Shokor, who was martyred along with three children and two women on Tuesday, July 30. Then, just hours later, the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital, Tehran.
None of this is by accident and the suggestion that the United States was not involved is simply ludicrous.
What Is The US-Israeli Strategy?
An all-out regional war will result in the annihilation of the Zionist Entity, for even with direct US involvement, the Zionists still can’t win. Even if we assume that nuclear weapons might be used, the firepower of the Resistance is such that the Israelis would experience a similar blow from the sheer scale of missile power directed toward them.
Knowing that victory is not possible, it appears evident, therefore, that strategies are in place to prevent a war from reaching its inevitable conclusion. The Israelis and Americans are frustrated by their devastating failures since the Hamas-led October 7 attack, whether it be in the inability of the Zionist military to secure a victory against the Palestinian Resistance in Gaza, or the US’ embarrassing defeat at the hands of Yemen’s Ansar Allah. The blows dealt to the Zionist Entity, in the security, military, political, societal, and economic spheres, are so great that it is unclear how they can ever recover.
Faced with such a predicament, the US-Israeli alliance had two options, either accept the strategic defeat and pursue a diplomatic solution to the chaos they have wrought over the past 10 months, or, escalate. The assassinations in Beirut and Tehran indicate they chose escalation.
The Israelis themselves have conducted two major war games over the past years, testing the capabilities of the Zionist military to fight a multi-front war, losing both times. Keep in mind that these military exercises were also conducted while assuming that the full strength of the Israeli military would be intact. At this time, the Zionist army is stretched thin, it is undertrained, overworked, and suffers from a lack of motivation and discipline. Additionally, it has lost many of its tanks and armored personnel carriers, as thousands have been damaged and destroyed in Gaza.
It suffices to say that Israel does not possess the capacity to fight the war it is pursuing, which is why the assassinations came as such a shock to many. However, as I have previously written here for Al Mayadeen, the Israelis had one last option left to prolong the war and the strategy is as follows:
Open up a war with Lebanon, but attempt to keep it limited to trade off blows and close the conflict with a stalemate. A war with Hezbollah will bring great carnage to Israeli infrastructure and result in scores of dead Israelis, thereby distracting the population from the war in the Gaza Strip. This would create an environment that could enable the Israeli prime minister to close a ceasefire deal with Hamas in Gaza. From there, the Zionist regime could then pivot to the West Bank, annexing around 60% of its territory and launching a military operation – similar to “Operation Defensive Shield” in 2002 – to murder the majority of the Resistance fighters there.
Under such a scenario, Benjamin Netanyahu will use the assassinations of Resistance leaders as trophies to brag about a supposed victory, while presenting the argument that his regime confronted an existential threat from multiple foes and survived. He will then use the land grab in the West Bank as proof of conquest and the killing of Resistance fighters there as a “security” achievement. This situation is what both the US and their Israeli allies see as the best-case scenario.
However, the situation could quickly spiral out of control and the damage done to the Zionist Entity could prove so great that it remains only a shell of itself if it manages to survive at all. It is a dangerous strategy, to say the very least, and although they may see it as a bold attempt to restore US-Israeli hegemony in West Asia, it also projects weakness and a lack of options. Such a risk, which could result in the end of the Zionist Entity, would only be taken if their backs were against the wall.
If this goes sideways for the Zionists, then they will likely have two options left. The first will be the infamous Samson Option, to use their nuclear weapons. The second could involve the deployment of regional forces into occupied Palestine to prevent the fall of the Zionist Entity.
The first option needs no further explanation; it is pure terror. The second has not been publicly discussed as of now but could also be implemented if it looks like the Israeli regime is about to collapse on the ground and Palestinian territory is close to liberation. If such an event occurs, it is plausible that the Jordanian and Egyptian armies could be deployed into occupied Palestine, in order to prevent the land from being taken over by Resistance fighters who are less likely to engage regional armies, this would also likely involve the presence of the Turkish armed forces who could potentially be deployed as well. Although there is no evidence to support this theory, it might be seen as the only way to de-escalate the situation if the Zionist Entity is on the brink of disintegration.
Regardless, the Zionists have gambled, and only time will tell how this will turn out.
Resistance Axis: a calculated, simultaneous strike on Israel
Hezbollah source: Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen will launch simultaneous retaliatory strikes against Israel, to overwhelm the Iron Dome.
By Ali Rizk | The Cradle | August 5, 2024
West Asia stands on a knife’s edge as the region’s Axis of Resistance prepares to retaliate against a series of recent Israeli assassinations and aggressions.
Iran, Hezbollah, and Yemen’s Ansarallah-aligned armed forces have vowed to make the occupation state pay a heavy price following the targeted killing of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr in southern Beirut.
Additionally, Israel bombed the Hodeidah port in Yemen following Sanaa’s successful ‘Yafa’ drone operation in Tel Aviv on 19 July.
An official from the Lebanese resistance has informed The Cradle that “The response will come at once from Iran, Hezbollah, and Yemen,” adding that the goal was to “inflict a painful blow to Israel which may not be achieved should separate retaliations be pursued.”
Executing the ‘Unity of Fronts’
Retaliation is all but certain and could happen within hours, according to senior US officials. A report yesterday by Axios claims that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken informed his G7 counterparts that the response could begin as early as within the next 24 hours.
Just yesterday, Ali al-Qahoum, a member of the political bureau of Ansarallah, emphasized that the response to Israel will not just come from Tehran:
We affirm our commitment to the battle, steadfastness, awareness, honor, and pride in standing with Palestine, the cause of the nation.
The critical question now is the scope and severity of the retaliation. Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah has promised a painful yet calculated blow to Tel Aviv. During Shukr’s funeral procession, Nasrallah warned that Israel had crossed the line, promising “a real and well-calculated response” – distinct from the cross-border operations Hezbollah has conducted against Israel since 8 October.
Flattening the Iron Dome
Other well-informed sources agree that the response could be coordinated, suggesting that retaliation from multiple fronts simultaneously is likely. They tell The Cradle that such an approach could take Israel’s primary air defense system, the Iron Dome, out of commission by preventing it from rapidly rearming. They believe this is achievable given Hezbollah’s capacity to launch a significant barrage of missiles and given Lebanon’s geographical proximity to potential Israeli targets.
These assessments appear to be consistent with those made by US officials who have warned that the Iron Dome could be overwhelmed by Hezbollah’s missile and drone arsenal should a full-scale war erupt.
Senior US military officials, meanwhile, have gone on the record cautioning that Washington would probably be unable to provide Tel Aviv with sufficient protection even in a single front, full-scale war with Hezbollah. US Joint Chief of Staff Charles Brown said as much in his remarks to the press in late June.
From our perspective, based on where our forces are, the short-range between Lebanon and Israel, it’s harder for us to be able to support them [Israel] in the same way we did in April [with Operation Truthful Promise].
Unwilling US support for Tel Aviv
Although much has been said about the US and its allies successfully thwarting Iran’s response to the Israeli attack on its consulate last April, it is noteworthy that all targeted Israeli military bases were hit during the Iranian retaliatory strikes. Operation Truthful Promise was intended more as a message, indicating that Tehran would no longer tolerate Israeli aggression against its interests.
US military reinforcements in the region may help intercept missiles and drones coming from Lebanon, while vassal state Jordan could also play a part as it did during Iran’s retaliatory strikes. However, this also makes US military assets and those of its partners legitimate targets for the Resistance Axis.
As former Pentagon analyst Michael Maloof explains to The Cradle:
Hezbollah would likely target US warships in the region that would take part in intercepting missiles directed at Israeli targets.
“As in 2006, I envision US involvement focused more on evacuating many of the 86,000 Americans now in Lebanon who would want to leave,” adds Maloof.
Washington’s top military officials also appear firmly opposed to being drawn into an active offensive role should a wider war erupt with Hezbollah, let alone a dreaded multi-front war. This stance is supported by statements from US Joint Chiefs of Staff Charles Brown, indicating the Pentagon’s limited willingness to protect the occupation state.
Note that Washington’s pledges to defend Israel have made no mention of potential offensive action, reflecting an American desire to avoid a wider war. Experts doubt the US will become heavily involved in any full-scale war, supported by public statements underscoring the importance of avoiding regional escalation – and voiced more privately, the desire to keep US military targets safe from retaliatory strikes.
Military risk and political calculations
As Brown said at the time, Washington’s main message is:
To think about the second order of effect of any type of operation into Lebanon, and how that might play out and how it impacts not just the region, but how it impacts our forces in regions as well.
The general – the most senior ranking US military official and the senior military advisor to the White House – was delivering a message that carries special significance amidst the recent developments.
By stating that an Israeli-initiated war on Lebanon put US troops at risk, Brown was essentially saying that a wider regional war was not seen as helping US interests by the Pentagon’s top brass.
Given these statements, it remains possible – though far from guaranteed – that the outgoing Biden administration may rein in Israel regardless of how painful a blow is delivered to it by the Axis of Resistance.
The upcoming US election in November is another factor that may prevent a regional conflagration. “The US getting more militarily involved with Israel,” warns Maloof, “would lead to riots in the streets of Chicago at the Democratic Convention later this month.”
These realities suggest a scenario where Washington might force Tel Aviv to absorb the Axis of Resistance’s retaliation, however severe it may be.
CENTCOM chief in Israel for ‘preparations’ against Iran, Hezbolla
The Cradle | August 4, 2024
The US CENTCOM chief arrived in Israel on 3 August to help Tel Aviv prepare for an Iranian retaliation to the killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh on its soil last week, as well as Hezbollah’s response to the strike on Beirut hours before.
General Michael Kurilla arrived in Israel on Saturday “as preparations continue for a possible attack against Israel from Iran [and Hezbollah] in retaliation for the assassinations of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders,” two US officials told Axios on 4 August.
Kurilla had already been planning a trip to Israel prior to the serious escalation, which saw Tel Aviv attack Beirut and Tehran within hours of each other.
“He is expected to use the trip to try to mobilize the same international and regional coalition that defended Israel against an attack from Iran on Apr. 13,” an official told Axios. At the time, Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel in response to the destruction of its consulate in Damascus and the killing of several Iranian officials.
Three US officials told the outlet they expect an Iranian retaliation to Haniyeh’s killing “as early as Monday.”
According to the report, Washington is concerned it will be difficult to garner the same amount of regional support in defense of Israel as it did in April, given that Haniyeh’s assassination comes within the context of the Gaza war – for which Israel has drawn major criticism from the Arab world and internationally.
Kurilla is set to visit several Gulf nations, as well as the kingdom of Jordan – which played a major role in intercepting Iranian projectiles during the April attack. Amman has already vowed to confront any violation of its airspace.
Jordan also opened up its airspace to US and Israeli jets during Iran’s April operation. “The U.S. hopes the same will happen again if needed,” another US official told Axios.
US and Israeli officials also “don’t know if Iran and Hezbollah will conduct a coordinated attack or operate separately … they think both Iran and Hezbollah are still working on finalizing their military plans and approving them at the political level.”
Meanwhile, the Pentagon said Washington has been beefing up its presence in the region in anticipation of the Resistance Axis’s responses, which could potentially include Iraq’s resistance factions and Yemen’s Ansarallah movement.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the US will maintain the presence of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, and has ordered more ballistic missile and defense-capable cruisers and warships to the region.
An additional squadron of fighter jets has also been deployed, in line with US President Joe Biden’s vow to send new deployments in defense of Israel during his phone call with Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed last week a “harsh punishment” for Israel. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah also warned Tel Aviv: “You do not know which red lines you have crossed.”
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Fact File : Civilian Internment 1939 – 1945
BBC – Compiled in 2003
Internment of civilian nationals belonging to opposing sides was carried out in varying degrees by all belligerent powers in World War Two. It was also the fate of those servicemen who found themselves in a neutral country.
At the outbreak of war there were around 80,000 potential enemy aliens in Britain who, it was feared, could be spies, or willing to assist Britain’s enemies in the event of an invasion. All Germans and Austrians over the age of 16 were called before special tribunals and were divided into one of three groups… continue
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