Col Douglas Macgregor: War to the Last Missile in Iran
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive
Glenn Diesen | July 7, 2026
Prof. Seyed Mohammad Marandi is a former advisor to Iran’s nuclear negotiation team. Prof. Marandi discusses the continued attacks on Lebanon and Gaza, the US efforts to renegotiate the MoU, the possibility of improved ties between Iran, the Arab States, and Turkey.
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The Cradle | July 7, 2026
A Saudi-flagged crude oil vessel and a Qatari tanker were damaged on 7 July after being struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, multiple reports have confirmed.
Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker Al-Rekayyat was “struck overnight and its engine room set on fire,” maritime sources told Reuters, adding that “a Saudi crude oil tanker has also been damaged.”
“Mayday … This is vessel Al-Rekayyat, LNG vessel Al-Rekayyat. We are being hit by drone on port side, top of engine room. Status: engine room fire and full of smoke. Unable to assess further damage,” the ship’s captain said in a recorded radio call heard by Reuters.
The ship was disabled and called for help, but the crew was unharmed, according to the report.
Iranian state television reported that an LNG ship was hit off the coast of Oman after “ignoring warnings.” Responsibility has yet to be officially claimed by Tehran.
According to Reuters, the Saudi oil tanker Wedyan was damaged in the same area – near Oman’s coast, close to the Strait of Hormuz.
The Wedyan vessel’s last position was inside the Persian Gulf on 3 July. Riyadh has not commented.
“Iran’s military fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” US officials told Axios.
Nevertheless, the US government has not officially commented on the incident.
The latest escalation near the strategic waterway comes after Iranian officials responded to new threats from US President Donald Trump.
“Negotiations on final deal will not commence if threats continue. Honor your signature,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on Tuesday, coinciding with a massive funeral for the country’s late supreme leader Ali Khamenei.
A day earlier, Trump threatened to “finish the job” and “knock down” bridges and energy sites across Iran.
In recent days, Iran has doubled down on its right to jointly manage the strait with Oman. The waterway is effectively under Iranian control.
Last month, a shipping corridor connecting the US and Oman via the Strait of Hormuz was launched, prompting Tehran to call it a breach of Clause 5 of the MoU.
Tehran has since announced that it has reached a deal with Oman on the management of the strait.
Since the MoU was signed, the illegal US blockade has largely ceased, and the Strait of Hormuz has been partially reopened by Iran.
However, Washington has continued to violate the MoU through multiple attacks on Iran, and a failure to rein in Israel’s brutal campaign of ethnic cleansing and occupation in Lebanon.
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive – July 6, 2026
Mario Nawfal | July 3, 2026
Dialogue Works | July 2, 2026
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Al Mayadeen | July 1, 2026
A cargo vessel ran aground in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday while traveling a route not approved by Iran’s naval authorities, Iran’s IRIB reports.
The ship was identified as a foreign container ship, but the report didn’t provide any further details on the matter.
IRIB’s report seems to underscore Iran’s geographical control over the strategic waterway, through which a fifth of all oil and gas passes.
According to HormuzTracker, the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, showing little to no passage through the key waterway.
This confirms a total halt in detected commercial navigation activity, with no crude oil tankers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, or container ships recorded moving through the Strait.
Transit through the Strait fell sharply following waves of US aggression against Iran and subsequent hostile rhetoric from Washington. Trackers showed that between June 24 and June 28, vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz fell from a high of 74 to 22.
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive – June 30, 2026
By Craig Murray | June 29, 2026
The provisional surrender document signed by Donald Trump appeared to represent a triumph for Iran and indeed for the world; but neither the USA nor Israel has the slightest sense of honour and they cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith.
Iran knows this – after all, the USA twice attacked Iran actually during peace negotiations, on each occasion killing key Iranian negotiators.
To understand the American position, it is important to realise two key points:
While the US/Israeli alliance were defeated in their attempt to impose regime change on Iran, and indeed have consolidated the popular support of the Iranian government, they have succeeded in expanding Greater Israel. Israel has ethnically cleared and devastated a vast swathe of Southern Lebanon, expanding its military footprint, and notably attempting to repeat its ploy from November 2024 of pushing forward its armour under cover of ceasefire.
Israeli withdrawal from Southern Lebanon has been a major negotiating point for the Iranian government and is a key – indeed the very first – point of the Iran/USA MOU. But in an extraordinary coup aimed at negating that deal, the USA has signed a deal with Israel and its puppet Aoun regime in Lebanon which seeks to legitimise Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon through the agreement of the “Lebanese government”.
This is an astonishing development. I did not think I could have a lower opinion of the appalling bloated traitor “General” “President” Aoun but not even I – nor I think any commentator – believed he would make such a deal with Israel. The plan is that the Americans, Israelis and Lebanese Army will act together to forcibly eliminate Hezbollah, and only after that is certified – by the Israelis – will the Israelis withdraw from Southern Lebanon.
Here are the operative paragraphs. Note that they carefully do not say in terms that Israel will actually leave Lebanon.
“3. …The Government of Israel and the Government of Lebanon commit to a reciprocal, sequenced process, with clear conditions, whereby the LAF will restore effective sovereign authority over all Lebanese territory, pending the verified disarmament of non-state armed groups and dismantlement of associated infrastructure, enabling the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to progressively redeploy out of the Lebanese territory.”
“5 . …The Government of Israel underscores that the termination of this threat, through the disarmament and dismantlement of such groups in all of Lebanon and additional security arrangements to be agreed upon between the two countries, will eliminate any future need for IDF military action or presence in Lebanon.”
This is plainly completely incompatible with the USA/Iran MOU, which states as Point 1:
“The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.”
Of course, everybody knows that Israel will never withdraw voluntarily, any more than they withdrew from the Golan Heights. Annexation is plainly the goal and expansion of Greater Israel at least to the Litani River and probably further.
It is important to realise that this is not only Aoun seeking the annihilation of the Shia population of Southern Lebanon; he is also betraying his own community. Aoun is himself a Southern Lebanese Christian, and Israel has been destroying the homes, churches, hospitals and families of Southern Lebanese Christians with as much glee as they attack Muslims.
The agreement names two “pilot zones” where the combined Israeli and Lebanese Army forces will eliminate Hezbollah, followed by Israeli withdrawal from those zones. But these are zones which Israel is not currently occupying – they are areas where Israel was defeated in fighting by Hezbollah and which have been since subject to relentless Israeli bombardment.
So Aoun has agreed to support militarily an IDF advance further into Lebanon, against an agreement that Israel will be able to withdraw once these key Hezbollah redoubts have been destroyed. Even if Aoun were stupid enough to believe the Israelis will withdraw after the operation, this is a level of treachery it is difficult to comprehend.
Greater Israel is not a concept. It is a reality being created before our very eyes.
Israel now occupies 70% of Gaza and plainly the entire “Board of Peace” mechanism is nothing but smoke and mirrors, pure fraud. It has zero effect on the continued tightening of the Gaza concentration camp into an ever-shrinking area. Israeli settlements in the West Bank expand daily and every night the skies are red with Palestinian homes and crops burning. In East Jerusalem Palestinians are continually evicted and replaced by fresh European or American arrivals. In Syria, Israel is building permanent fortifications and its armour creeps forward field by field, with the full cooperation of “President” al-Jolani.
Iran was able to resist the combined military might of the USA and Israel. That is cause for celebration. But do not allow it to blind your eyes to the continued hard reality of the expansion of Greater Israel.
There is no gain for the US in the US/Iran Memorandum of Understanding which the US did not already possess before starting the war. It is therefore very possible, and in many senses valid, to read it as the formalisation of US defeat: a surrender document. Which is why you should be sceptical about US commitment to the terms.
The Strait of Hormuz was fully open before the US started the war. Allowing the flow of oil to resume has become a short-term US priority due to high domestic retail prices and pending elections, but the MOU envisages more Iranian control – and potentially fees – in the Strait than existed before the war.
There is no indication of restrictions on the Iranian nuclear programme that were not already available in the peaceful negotiations. Crucially there are no limitations on Iran’s vital ballistic missile production. The proposed relaxation of sanctions and release of frozen assets is a triumph for Iran and long overdue, and the $300 billion in dollars in reparations, from unspecified sources, is stunning.
So stunning of course that anyone with their head screwed on will realise there is no long term American intention to keep faith with the deal.
Trump is not stupid. There are many ways of characterising his kind of cunning, but it is not stupidity. He was not, as the prevailing narrative seeks to state, the only person in the World who did not realise the Strait of Hormuz would be closed by the war. The USA is quite happy to see the Strait of Hormuz closed, or permanently made more difficult and expensive to transit.
The key to understanding Trump’s position is his famous love of tariffs. Trump is a mercantilist. For many years the world worked on the general basis of accepting the economics of Adam Smith – that freedom of trade promoted universal, reciprocal wealth creation. That was the founding basis of the World Trade organisation, and is the internal philosophy of big trading blocs like the EU.
Trump rejects this and returns to the philosophy that other nations are all competitors, not potential partners, and that success lies not only in increasing your own production, but in damaging your rivals’ production – which ultimately will increase domestic production further. Trump rejects the basic premise of free trade.
The long prevailing belief in the beneficial effects of free trade historically was, as logic demands, accompanied by the demand for freedom of navigation.
Sweeping away tariffs goes hand in hand with sweeping away the controls on shipping which carry the goods. Before the rise of liberal economics, almost all states had practised mercantilism, with controls on shipping being a major source of state revenue. The magnificence of Kronborg Castle in Helsingør, in which Hamlet is set, was constructed entirely from revenues from tolls on ships exiting the Baltic by passing the strait it overlooks, for example.

Freedom of navigation was initially enforced ultimately by the British, and later the American, Navy. States attempting to enforce customary passage fees, for example in the Malaccan Strait, were classified as “pirates” and freedom of navigation became a routine justification for imperialist aggression and/or colonial occupation. Freedom of navigation eventually became customary international law, ultimately codified in the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea.
The simple truth is this: in openly abandoning the principle of free trade, the Trump regime has also abandoned the logically linked principle of freedom of navigation. This is evident not just in their indifference to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It is evident in the naval blockades of Cuba and Venezuela and above all in the worldwide blockade of Russian hydrocarbon deliveries, including the effective end of free passage through the Strait of Dover, and a de facto naval blockade of the Arctic passages.
Following the shale boom, the United States is a net hydrocarbon exporter. The USA balance of trade benefits from high hydrocarbon prices. Trump is doing everything he can to increase US hydrocarbon production by slashing environmental and other controls. This is a core Trump policy.
The USA does not import hydrocarbons through the Strait of Hormuz. That fact is key to Trump’s thinking.
In this mercantilist view, closure of the Strait has two benefits for the USA.
This is exactly the same logic behind the destruction of Nord Stream 2. The same mercantilist system also explains the effective seizure through naval blockade and control of Venezuela’s oil production, and the blockade of Russian hydrocarbons through sanctions and the “shadow fleet” propaganda disguising another naval blockade.
The UK’s recent actions in the Dover strait indicate that the West, not just the United States has surrendered the principle of freedom of navigation in straits.
Trump believes, as he has repeatedly stated in public, that domestic fuel prices in the USA are a blip and will equalise as the USA increases its domestic fuel production and Venezuelan fuel production. However this was not happening in time for the mid-term elections which is why reopening the Strait of Hormuz became a temporary priority that occasioned the ceasefire and MOU with Iran.
None of this implies good faith negotiation or a real prospect for a lasting peace.
By Larry C. Johnson | SONAR21 | June 28, 2026
After an exchange of missiles and drones on Saturday, the US backed down and declined to continue striking Iran. Qatar reportedly intervened to broker a new ceasefire. The US and Iran, in response to Qatar’s intervention, agreed to halt attacks against each other and plan to meet in Doha on Tuesday for technical talks aimed at resolving their dispute over the Strait of Hormuz, according to Axios.
The US-Iran meeting was originally planned to take place in Switzerland on Monday and focus on Iran’s nuclear program. Now the talks will take place in Doha on Tuesday. Iran’s position is firm… Traffic through the Strait must be carried out in accordance with the PGSA protocols. The US boxed itself in a corner with the language of the MoU:
5. Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman, to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussions with other Persian Gulf Littoral States, in line with applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
The MoU give Iran the sole responsibility for making arrangements for the “safe passage of commercial vessels” through the Strait of Hormuz. If the US had insisted on including Oman and the other Gulf nations in the MoU then Iran would be obligated to consult with them. But the US accepted Iran’s language and Iran will insist there is no compromise on its sovereign right to manage traffic flow through the Strait.
While the world markets remain fixated on oil passing through the Strait, they are ignoring the profound impact of the halt in the shipment of Helium, Sulfur and Urea. The global economy is already experiencing the pain of the reduction in the supply of these commodities and the world will experience a global inflationary shock. Let’s look at each one.
Helium
The structural problem: Roughly one-third of the world’s helium production is impacted by the crisis, due to both the disruption of LNG production in Qatar and the very time-sensitive nature of helium transportation.
The mechanism was twofold. On March 2, state-owned QatarEnergy halted all LNG and associated production at Ras Laffan Industrial City following Iranian drone and missile strikes. On March 4, QatarEnergy declared force majeure on affected contracts. The company’s CEO stated that production would not restart until the conflict ended, and that even then, normalisation of deliveries would require “weeks to months.” Iran then struck Ras Laffan again on March 18-19.
Price movement: The shock hit fast. “The spot price for helium has moved up pretty dramatically. I would say 70 to 100 percent in a week,” said Phil Kornbluth, president of Kornbluth Helium Consulting and a 30-year veteran of the industry. Bank of America put the initial surge at 40%, while other estimates put prices at between 70% and 100% higher in some cases within a little more than a week.
The situation had an additional physical complication that other commodities don’t face. Roughly one-third of the world’s cryogenic helium ISO containers were stranded in or around Qatar. Repositioning this equipment after the conflict would require a minimum of three months, creating a supply gap that outlasts the conflict itself. Liquefied helium evaporates within roughly 45 days, meaning stranded inventory cannot be held for later delivery. Ships rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope face an additional 3,500 nautical miles, extending transit times by 10 to 14 days, during which liquid helium experiences boil-off losses of 15–20% of cargo volume.
By June 20, prices remained substantially elevated with no clear return path, because the damage to Ras Laffan is physical, not merely logistical. Even after Iran and the United States announced a ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed due to overlapping blockades, meaning that even if production restarted, Qatari helium had no viable sea route to market. The structural problem persists through the MOU period.
Given Helium’s critical role in the production of computer chips, the price of computers and smart phones is soaring. Apple, for example, recently announced significant price hikes for the iPhone 17 Pro Max (+$200) and the 16-inch MacBook Pro (+$300).
Sulfur
Pre-war baseline — already stressed: The sulfur price to Indonesia rose from $101 per metric ton in July 2024 to $554 per metric ton by January 2026 as high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) expansion drove demand — a 440% increase before the Iran conflict added further pressure. The market was already at multi-year highs before February 28.
The geographic exposure: Ships moving through the strait carry 24% of the world’s sulfur, a feedstock for sulfuric acid used to make metals like nickel and copper, as well as fertilizer and household cleaning products. The Middle East accounts for roughly 24% of global sulfur production and approximately 50% of global seaborne sulfur trade, all of which transits the Strait of Hormuz.
Price movement: Since the start of Operation Epic Fury, the price of sulfur has nearly doubled. Gulf states typically provide 45% of the seaborne sulfur trade through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s blockade caused a 30% price spike by halting half of the global supply, creating bottlenecks in mineral extraction. Sulfur shortages were already leading to 20–30% output reductions for critical mineral miners.
The downstream cascade was severe. The World Bank noted that sulfur prices had doubled since January by April 2026, and that China’s move to tighten exports — in response to its own domestic shortfall as Persian Gulf imports dried up — added upward pressure on DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices. China banned sulfuric acid exports, impacting among other things copper production in Chile, which imported sulfuric acid as a consumable.
By June 20, with the MOU in place but Hormuz only partially normalising and QatarEnergy yet to fully resume operations, sulfur prices remained substantially above pre-crisis levels. As of May 2026, prices remained elevated, with the global fertilizer index projected to rise over 30% for the year amid persistent supply risks and rerouting challenges.
Urea
Pre-war baseline: Before the war, the cost of FOB granular urea in Egypt — a bellwether of nitrogen fertilizers — was $400 to $490 per metric ton. US retail prices hovered in the same general range through mid-February.
The geographic exposure: The Arabian Gulf is the central hub for global agriculture, accounting for at least 20% of all seaborne fertiliser exports. The dependency is even more acute for urea, the world’s most widely used nitrogen fertiliser, with 46% of global trade originating from the region.
Phase 1 — initial shock (late February to March): Oxford Economics’ Alpine Macro said urea and ammonia prices had surged by around 50% and 20%, respectively, since the war began. By March 3, a contract was signed for the supply of urea from Algeria at $618 per ton on FOB terms — the highest figure since 2022.
Phase 2 — peak (April 2026): Nitrogen (urea) prices climbed above $850 per metric ton in April, up 80% since February and the highest level since the 2022 commodity spike. US retail: Urea had a national average as high as $826 per ton in early April surges, up 34–35% month-over-month in some periods, and urea prices FOB Middle East reached around $795 per ton due to regional disruptions.
Phase 3 — partial retreat (May–June 2026): The urea market was the fastest to respond to the MOU and the partial Hormuz normalisation, partly because it is more fungible than helium and partly because the ceasefire allowed some rerouting via land corridors. FAO forecast international urea prices to ease from June as fertiliser shipments resume from the Persian Gulf and China returns to export markets after issuing new export quotas. After the de-escalation of tensions and statements regarding a ceasefire, the market experienced an oversupply, which led to a significant price drop.
However, in light of the events of the past three days, the expectations that ships carrying urea will be exiting the Persian Gulf are overly optimistic and the price is likely to rise until there is a clear sign that ships will be passing the Strait in accordance with the PGSA protocols.
Full interview:
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive – June 27, 2026
The Cradle | June 28, 2026
Israel has sold advanced defense systems to Qatar and Saudi Arabia, including sophisticated missile defense systems to protect the Qatari royal family and components for advanced fighter jets, Haaretz reported on 28 June.
Citing documents and photographs, the left-liberal Israeli paper revealed that Israeli Elbit Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries have sold hundreds of millions of shekels’ worth of missile defense systems and helmets for advanced F-15 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
The sales occurred even though both Gulf monarchies have refrained from joining the Abraham Accords and have no formal diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv.
Haaretz writes that when Qatari ruler Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani flew to Iran last year, his private jet was equipped with an air defense system manufactured by Israel-based Elbit Systems.
A photograph of the Qatari emir’s arrival in Algeria in March 2024 clearly showed an Elbit defense system installed on the underside of his aircraft.
The Qatari royal fleet consists of 11 aircraft, including two Boeing 747s and an Airbus A340-500, all equipped with Elbit’s C-MUSIC system, known in Israel as Magen Rakia.
The C-MUSIC system detects the launch of a heat-seeking surface-to-air missile and emits an infrared beam that disrupts the missile’s ability to lock on to the aircraft.
It is especially effective against shoulder-fired missiles known as MANPADS.
The cost of the deal with Qatar is unknown. However, it likely exceeds $200 million, given the value of similar deals with European countries and NATO.
Elbit and other Israeli companies also produce parts for Qatar’s US-supplied F-15 fighter jets.
According to a US Defense Department contract with Boeing, Israeli companies were awarded subcontracts worth $150 million to $250 million to supply advanced parts and systems for the Qatari F-15s.
Elbit subsidiaries, Elbit America and Cyclone, were awarded contracts, along with Collins Elbit Vision Systems, a joint venture with RTX.
Among the items provided by the Israeli weapons firms to Doha is the advanced JHMCS combat helmet, which projects flight data onto the visor, allowing the pilots to visually lock on to a target and fire a missile at it.
Elbit also supplied AN/AVS-9 night-vision goggles for Qatar’s F-15 warplanes.
Additional contracts to provide equipment for the Qatari F-15 program were awarded to Israel Aerospace Industries, TAT Technologies, and Beth-El Industries.
Official State Department documents and photographs also reveal that Saudi Arabia received 462 advanced JHMCS combat helmets and 462 AN/AVS-9 night-vision goggles produced by Israeli firms for its own F-15 warplanes.
By Larry C. Johnson | SONAR21 | June 27, 2026
Last I heard the US and Iran are supposed to meet in Switzerland starting Sunday, 28 June, to continue negotiations over the MoU. However, today’s exchange of missiles and drones in the Strait of Hormuz may have put a nail in the coffin of the MoU.
Today’s escalation was the most serious exchange since the June 17 MOU signing and represents a clear breach of the first paragraph of the MoU by the United States:
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final Deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.
There was nothing in the MoU that prevented Iran from firing on a ship that ignored the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) protocols. Under the PGSA system, shipowners receive verifiable guidance and can apply for transit permits directly through the PGSA’s formal process, creating a centralised mechanism for coordinating transit through the strait with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Ever Lovely tried to circumvent the PGSA by traveling along the Omani corridor. Iran fired on it, which resulted in the US attacking Iranian positions in the Strait… a clear violation of the MoU.
The situation escalated on Saturday. Here is the sequence as it developed.
The triggering incident — 4:30 AM ET
Iran launched a one-way attack drone that hit M/T Kiku this morning at 4:30 a.m. ET. The Panama-flagged tanker attempted to use the Omani route without notifying the IRGC in accordance with the PSAG protocol. It was carrying more than two million barrels of Qatari crude oil, and was headed to the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates.
Second vessel struck
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre also reported another attack on a different commercial vessel Saturday, close to the coast of Oman. The vessel sustained damage to its bridge. All crew were reported safe and no environmental damage had been reported. The incident was reported at around 11:30 AM local time.
Iran strikes Bahrain
Following the second attempt by a commercial vessel to ignore the PGSA protocols, Iran launched a number of drones at the former Headquarter of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet. Bahrain’s Foreign Ministry called it “a flagrant violation of its sovereignty, a flagrant threat to the security of citizens and residents, and a blatant breach of international norms.” Egypt and Kuwait swiftly condemned the attack. Saudi Arabia and Qatar also later condemned the drone strikes by Iran.
US retaliatory strikes — second wave
Late Friday night, and continuing into the early hours of Saturday, the US Central Command launched a second wave of retaliatory strikes on Iran, saying it attacked multiple targets in Iran at President Donald Trump’s direction. CENTCOM said US military aircraft targeted Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities, and minelayer capabilities. This was notably broader than Friday’s strikes, which had focused on missile and drone storage and coastal radar. Adding “minelayer capabilities” to the target set is a significant escalation in scope.
Trump, in another violation of the first paragraph of the MoU, said in a Truth Social post Saturday evening that US aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites “for violating the Cease Fire Agreement, AGAIN!” The president threatened that if Iran doesn’t “learn,” the US “will be forced to militarily complete the job that we successfully started” and that “the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist.”
The strategic logic on each side is now fully exposed. Iran frames every ship using the Oman route as a “violating vessel” and every US strike as a ceasefire breach — positioning its own attacks as defensive enforcement. The US frames Iran’s drone attacks on commercial shipping as ceasefire violations that require retaliation. Ebrahim Azizi, the head of Iran’s parliamentary national security commission, wrote that “the failed US President has shown he has no commitment to the principles of negotiation or a ceasefire” and that “this reckless violation of the ceasefire will, as always, lead to retreat and regret on their part.”
The IRGC released the following statement early on the 28th:
‘Dear noble people of the Islamic Iran: Your brave sons in the Naval and Aerospace Forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, during a joint missile and drone operation at 02:00-03:00 AM, targeted eight important U.S. targets, including Ali Al-Salem Airbase in Kuwait and the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain.
The aggressor enemy, whose betrayal and violation of treaties are part of its nature, attacked early this morning five coastal sites in Iran under the pretext of confronting the IRGC Navy in response to seizing a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the Islamabad MoU, regarding traffic arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz with the Islamic Republic, from now on, ships that violate Iran’s instructions will be confronted with a greater force than before.
Any potential new aggression by the enemy for any reason, even if it is similar to last night’s attacks on unimportant targets, will have a devastating response.
The enemy must know that violating the ceasefire is contrary to Paragraph 1 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding and will lead to a complete halt in negotiations.’
Iran launched a significant combination of missile and drone strikes on the airbases in Kuwait and Bahrain. As I write this, the US has not responded. The ball is now in the court of Donald Trump… Will the US continue to encourage ships to circumvent the Iranian PGSA protocol or will it stand down? If the decision is the former then the MoU is finished and the likelihood of renewed US attacks on Iran is high. If it is the latter then the MoU, although on life support, may be salvaged. Let’s see what Sunday brings.