War with Hamas deals ‘severe economic blow’ to Israel
The Cradle | October 17, 2023
Eleven days into its war with the Hamas-led Palestinian resistance, Israel is paying a heavy economic toll, Maariv reported on 17 October.
The Israeli newspaper reported that “the Israeli economy appears to have already begun to pay a heavy price for the war,” which began on 7 October with the start of Hamas’ Al-Aqsa Flood Operation.
The newspaper explained in a report published Tuesday that “4.6 billion shekels [$1.1 billion] is the price paid by the Israeli economy as a result of workers not coming to work and low productivity in Israeli institutions.”
According to the analysis of the economic department of Israel’s Manufacturers Union, the closure of the education system, blocking of traffic routes, and the extensive mobilization of the army reserves has also hurt economic productivity.
In total, it is estimated that about 1.3 million Israeli workers did not go to work this week.
In southern Israel, some 85 percent of workers were absent from their jobs, along with about 20 percent of workers in the rest of Israel.
The head of the Manufacturers’ Union and the head of the Employers and Companies Association, Ron Tomer, said after the harsh assessments that “there is no doubt that the war constitutes a severe economic blow to the economy.”
According to Maariv, this estimate does not take into account “additional and very significant financial damage, which will only be assessed economically at the end of the fighting, such as direct damage to factories and damage to profitability.”
In addition to decreased productivity, Israel will see indirect damage, such as the damage to the reputation of Israeli companies with customers abroad, cancelled transactions, failure to adhere to schedules, and the depreciation of the shekel.
Should the conflict widen to include not just Hamas but also Iran, a key backer of the Palestinians, Bloomberg estimates oil prices could climb to $150 a barrel and cause a global recession that takes about $1 trillion off world output.
Iranian involvement on the Palestinian side could lead to a cut in Iranian oil output and a tightening of western sanctions hindering Iranian oil sales.
Bloomberg notes further that an oil shock of this size would also derail the worldwide effort to rein in inflation. In the US, the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target would not be met, and costly gasoline would be a hurdle for President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign.
Another possibility is that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s single-most important energy corridor. Globally, over one-sixth of oil and one-third of liquefied natural gas passes through the narrow strait
“The gas market is calm but tense,” Henning Gloystein, director for energy, climate and resources at the Eurasia Group think tank said.
“It doesn’t take much to go into a fever pitch. We had the Ukraine war, Russian gas supply cuts, oil cap sanctions and now you have war in the Middle East as well — that’s a problem,” he said.
500 people killed, 600 wounded in Israeli airstrike on Gaza hospital
Palestine Information Center – October 17, 2023
GAZA – More than 500 people were killed and 600 others injured in an Israeli direct attack on the Al-Ahli Arab National Hospital in Gaza, Palestinian health ministry said on Tuesday evening.
According to the PIC reporter, the airstrike targeted thousands of displaced people who took refuge in the hospital’s courtyards after their houses were destroyed in the ongoing Israeli aggression.
The Hamas Movement considered the Israeli massacre at Al-Ahli Hospital a crime of genocide.
“The horrifying massacre carried out by the Zionist occupation in the Arab National Hospital in the Gaza Strip, during which hundreds of people and patients were killed, the majority of whom were displaced families, children, and women, is a crime of genocide that once again exposes the true face of this enemy and its fascist government and its terrorism, as well as the American and Western support for this criminal entity.”
The Movement called on the international community and the Arab and Islamic countries to assume their responsibility and intervene immediately to stop the ongoing Israeli aggression for 11 days.
West ‘stomps’ on Russian-drafted resolution for Gaza ceasefire
The Cradle | October 17, 2023
A Russian-drafted resolution for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza failed to pass at the UN Security Council (UNSC) on 16 October.
China, Russia, Gabon, Mozambique, and the UAE voted in favor of the resolution, while the US, UK, France, and Japan voted against it. Albania, Brazil, Ecuador, Ghana, Malta, and Switzerland all abstained from voting.
The text of the resolution called for an immediate humanitarian truce, the release of prisoners, access to aid, and the safe evacuation of civilians.
Vassily Nebenzia, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN, condemned the UNSC failure to pass the resolution and slammed the “selfish intention of the western bloc,” which he said “basically stomped” on international calls for de-escalation and an end to violence.
He added that the resolution was needed to respond to the “unprecedented exacerbation” of the calamity inside the Gaza Strip, where Israel has continued to bomb 2.2 million Palestinians trapped inside and prevent the entry of humanitarian aid.
Washington’s representative, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, denounced the resolution for failing to condemn “Hamas terrorism.”
“By failing to condemn Hamas, Russia is giving cover to a terrorist group that brutalizes innocent civilians. It is outrageous, hypocritical, and indefensible. We cannot allow this Council to unfairly shift the blame to Israel and excuse Hamas for its decades of cruelty,” she said.
The failed resolution came the same day Russian President Vladimir Putin held phone calls with the presidents of Iran, Syria, Egypt, and the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“The Israeli side was in particular informed of the essential points of telephone correspondences that took place today with the leaders of Palestine, Egypt, Iran, and Syria,” the Kremlin said in a statement.
Close to 3,000 Palestinians have been killed and about 10,000 wounded due to Israel’s indiscriminate bombing of civilian infrastructure in the Gaza Strip.
The Rafah crossing with Egypt, the only entry for humanitarian aid to Gaza, has remained shut despite multiple reports of an agreement between Egypt and Israel, which Tel Aviv has denied.
“The process of opening the crossing is a joint Palestinian-Egyptian process, subject to clear working mechanisms, and requires prior coordination, which has not happened until now [due to] lack of coordination, in addition to the intense bombing to which the crossing was subjected by the Israeli occupation forces,” Salama Marouf, director of the media office of the Hamas-led government in Gaza, said on Tuesday.
Israel has bombed the aid route several times over the past few days, including on 16 August.
Any talk of truce “comes in the context of the psychological warfare waged by the Israeli occupation,” Marouf added.
Putin offers solution to stop further bloodshed in Israel-Gaza conflict while Zelensky fears losing US support
By Drago Bosnic | October 17, 2023
As hostilities in the latest Israel-Gaza conflict escalate, the threat of a wider confrontation in the Middle East is getting likelier by the day. It’s safe to assume that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) haven’t launched a ground operation in Gaza yet due to possible direct Iranian involvement, as well as the greater engagement of Hezbollah in the north of the country. According to the Jerusalem Post, the main reason for the postponing of the offensive is precisely the latter. The Northern Command is forced to keep the best IDF troops in the area to ensure combat readiness on the Lebanese border in case Hezbollah gets more directly involved. The Lebanon-based Shia movement has tens of thousands of soldiers and a massive stockpile of various rockets and missiles that could do significant damage to the IDF. Israel simply cannot afford to ignore Hezbollah, as the group already defeated it once in 2006, the only such occurrence in the history of IDF.
The Jerusalem Post itself cited sources saying that “while a number of factors seem to have caused a delay, one factor has been a growing concern that Hezbollah is waiting for the moment that most IDF ground forces are committed to Gaza to open a full front with the IDF in the north”. This fact alone is forcing Israel to keep most of its military assets in the relative vicinity of the border with Lebanon. It could be said that Hezbollah is already providing significant support to Hamas just by being able to tie up so many IDF troops. Iranian involvement in this is implicit, as Tehran has been one of the main backers of Hezbollah since the group’s very inception. This is forcing the Israeli leadership to exercise caution and restraint, as a direct Iranian intervention remains a possibility. Such speculation is not without merit, as Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian already implied that Tehran might get involved:
“Conferred with my counterparts from Tunisia, Malaysia and Pakistan. Underlined the need to immediately stop Zionist crimes & murder in Gaza & to dispatch humanitarian aid. I stressed that time is running out for political solutions; probable spread of war on other fronts is approaching unavoidable stage.”
On the other hand, most high-ranking Israeli officials are adamant that the Gaza operation must be launched. For instance, Israeli ambassador to the United Kingdom Tzipi Hotovely even compared the current airstrikes with the bombing of Dresden during WWII, when Western Allies leveled the German city, killing tens of thousands of civilians in the process. Israeli F-16I “Sufa” fighter jets have already dropped thousands of bombs on Gaza (primarily the US-made JDAMs – Joint Direct Attack Munitions), resulting in thousands of deaths and serious injuries among civilians there. According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, the death toll among Palestinians now stands at over 3,000. For its part, Israel reported that over 1,400 Israeli civilians died so far, with at least 4,100 wounded. The figures are certainly even worse as of this writing.
Such casualties are disastrous, especially given that the conflict started just ten days ago. Since then, the world has effectively split into three groups. Apart from those that express open support for either side, the largest part of the globe has opted for neutrality. This also includes superpowers such as Russia. Namely, Moscow was among the first to call for the end of hostilities before they escalate to include all regional and perhaps even global actors. In a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin (the first since the conflict started), Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel would proceed with the Gaza offensive despite Moscow’s warning that it would lead to massive casualties and possibly cause a strong reaction of the Muslim world, particularly Iran and its allies. Putin urged Netanyahu to engage in talks on the peaceful settlement of the conflict.
On the other hand, the United States is looking to use the crisis to escalate against Iran, as Washington DC warhawks were quick to blame Tehran for the surprise attack launched by Hamas. US President Joe Biden will visit Israel this week, coming mere days after State Secretary Antony Blinken. Biden recently denied reports about a possible deployment of American troops, calling it “unnecessary, as Israel has one of the finest fighting forces”. And while he stated that “it would be a mistake [for Israel] to occupy Gaza”, he supported the notion that Hamas must be eliminated entirely and warned Iran not to get involved. By directly supporting the upcoming ground operation by the IDF, Washington DC is risking (almost certainly intentionally) a wider conflict that might include several Arab states and Iran. In fact, Israeli forces already hit targets in Syria and Lebanon.
In the meantime, the Kiev regime is in panic mode as the global spotlight has moved away from Ukraine. Namely, the Neo-Nazi junta frontman Volodymyr Zelensky tried to get the attention of Western audiences to himself by pompously announcing a “solidarity visit”. However, Israel flatly refused, as the “time is not right”. Zelensky is likely terrified of the prospect that he will have to share hundreds of billions in so-called US “aid” with Israel. It’s no secret that the latter is a priority for Washington DC, while the Kiev regime and the Ukrainian people as a whole are routinely seen as “cheap cannon fodder” that should only be “dying for a NATO mission.” The words of the infamous warhawk Lindsey Graham that “the best money the US ever spent because the Russians are dying” show this only works for America if its actual allies are under attack.
Drago Bosnic is an independent geopolitical and military analyst.
US warmonger Senator threatens Iran
By Lucas Leiroz | October 17, 2023
Once again, the pro-war sectors of American politics seem to want to foment a conflict situation with US involvement. A prominent public figure in the US Senate has made very serious threats to Iran, promising that Washington “will not hesitate” to take actions against Tehran if the conflict in the region continues to escalate.
The threats were made by the highly known Senator Lindsey Graham, who is notorious for his bellicose and irresponsible positions regarding American foreign policy. Graham issued a warning to Iranian authorities, stating that if there is any military action by Hezbollah against Israel, Washington will act to protect its ally, which could have serious consequences for Iran, both in military and economic terms.
“Here’s my message. If Hezbollah, which is a proxy of Iran, launches a massive attack on Israel, I would consider that a threat to the — to the State of Israel, existential in nature. I will introduce a resolution in the United States Senate to allow military action by the United States in conjunction with Israel to knock Iran out of the oil business,” Graham said.
Hezbollah was not the only topic in the Senator’s speech. Graham also stated that he does not believe in the Iranian government’s official narrative that the Hamas operation was carried out autonomously. For him, believing this is “laughable”, with total confidence on his part that Hamas’ actions were previously discussed with Iran.
“The idea that Iran read about this operation in the paper, or on television is laughable. 93% of Hezbollah and Hamas’ money comes from Iran (…) They’re the source of the problem. They’re the great evil. So, if Hezbollah escalates against Israel, it will be because Iran told them to. Then Iran, you’re in the crosshairs of the United States and Israel,” Graham added.
Graham’s stance is extremely complicated, as the current tense situation in the Middle East favors risks of escalation and internationalization, and there is therefore a considerable possibility of Iran becoming involved in hostilities. This involvement can be direct or indirect, with Tehran sending regular troops or mobilizing its allied groups – which are not limited to Hezbollah. In either scenario, the risks would be enormous for Israel, which, despite its large military strength, is a small and vulnerable country in situations of war of attrition.
Furthermore, it must be emphasized that Iran is doing everything possible not to enter the war. By warning Israel not to continue collectively punishing Gaza, Tehran is offering alternatives to armed confrontation. But Tel Aviv, despite being afraid of invading on the ground, continues to bomb Gaza and kill thousands of civilians, causing Iran’s patience to progressively run out.
It has also been informed by the Persian country’s authorities that the so-called “Axis of Resistance” – a Theran-led coalition of anti-Zionist armed movements – could act at any time in defense of the Palestinians. Iranian politicians clarified that, despite Tehran leading the coalition, the member groups have high decision-making autonomy, and there is no full Iranian control over how these movements will react to Israel. In other words, the risks of escalation are great, and Iran is not capable of preventing it alone.
The only way to truly de-escalate is through a commitment on the part of Israel to stop the attacks. Without this, the situation will go out of control and there will inevitably be intervention – if not direct from Iran, at least from some Iranian-allied group. Furthermore, it is necessary to remember that Hezbollah is already de facto involved in hostilities, with bombings being exchanged between the IDF and the Shiite militia every day. Obviously, if nothing is done to stop these hostilities, at some point Hezbollah will choose to launch a more effective incursion.
With all these factors, Graham’s words sound like a “self-fulfilling prophecy”. He points to an imminent scenario as a “red line” and issues direct threats, making real de-escalation actions virtually impossible. However, this type of behavior is in fact expected from Graham, who is a known “hawk” of American foreign policy. Months ago, the Senator became embroiled in a controversy after saying that the US was investing money in “killing Russians” in Ukraine – praising such an “investment”. In the same vein, on another occasion, he also suggested that Kiev should kill Russian President Vladimir Putin.
It remains to be seen whether these pro-war tendencies will prevail in the American public debate. For now, the US stance has been extremely bellicose, with the country sending aircraft carriers to “help” Israel. However, it is necessary to remember that the American military-industrial complex is not able to work on two different fronts at the same time – in addition to the possibility of escalation in the Pacific in the near future. Washington needs to act rationally and discourage war in the Middle East.
Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant.
Israel kills a dozen journalists in one week
The Cradle | October 16, 2023
Israel has killed at least 12 journalists since the start of their blitz in Gaza, in which warplanes have dropped thousands of bombs into the world’s largest open-air prison.
“As of 15 October, in the first nine days of fighting, at least 12 journalists were killed, two were missing, and eight injured,” said the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ). Attacking the press while reporting on conflicts is considered a war crime under Article 79 of Additional Protocol I in the Geneva Conventions.
“Journalists engaged in dangerous professional missions in areas of armed conflict shall be considered as civilians,” the CPJ report adds. “They shall be protected as such under the Conventions and this Protocol.”
Israel has never shied away from attacking journalists, and western news outlets constantly downplay these deadly attacks. This was the case with Reuters journalist Issam Abdallah, who the Israeli army killed on 13 October, but the UK news agency described his death as being caused by “missile fire from the direction of Israel.”
Killing individual journalists isn’t the only thing the Israeli army is guilty of. During the war on Gaza in 2021, the Israeli air force destroyed the Gaza Tower, a building that housed AP and Al Jazeera offices.
Last year, Al-Jazeera veteran journalist Shireen Abu Akleh was killed by an Israeli sniper in the occupied West Bank. No one has faced prosecution for her murder.
Israel has been responsible for the deaths of dozens of reporters, photojournalists, and freelance civilian journalists throughout the years.
The Israeli cabinet is in talks about banning Al-Jazeera, one of the few international news stations reporting from the ground of Gaza.
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Sanctions, War and the Policy of Dual Containment
By SASAN FAYAZMANESH | March 17, 2008
It is now nearly three decades since the Unites States adopted the policy of dual containment of Iran and Iraq. While much has been written about the containment of Iraq, there has been very little in-depth analysis of this policy when it comes to Iran. In a book that is going to be released on March 31, 2008, entitled The United States and Iran: Sanctions, Wars and the Policy of Dual Containment (Routledge), I attempt to address this shortcoming by investigating when and why the US policy of containment of Iran came about, how it evolved, and where it stands today.[1] To the extent that Israel has been involved in US policy making, the study will also include the role that Israel has played in the containment of Iran. Also, since the fate of Iran has been inextricably linked to that of Iraq, occasionally the investigation will overlap with the containment of Iraq.
The policy of dual containment of Iran and Iraq originated during the Carter Administration, but it was not until the Clinton Administration that the expression “dual containment” became popular. … continue
Blog Roll
Aletho News- No Vote, No Representation, No State: Democracy, Israeli Style
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- Yes, the Iran war has destroyed Trump’s presidency
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- The legacy of US sanctions, war, and occupation in Iraq
- If Americans Knew
- Mamdani releases plan to combat antisemitism and hate crimes in New York City
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Publish Letter to the American People
- DMFI launches $1 million ad campaign supporting Virginia’s Elaine Luria
- US Senate blocks resolution seeking report on Americans killed by Israel
- Israeli Attacks Kill Ten Palestinians in Gaza
- Massacre at Minab: The School That Became a Grave
- Israeli media: The IDF Shows It Doesn’t Turn a Blind Eye; It Actively Emboldens Settler Havoc
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- New Report: “Scholasticide and Genocide in Gaza: Assessment, Testimonies and Legal Analysis”
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- Green Energy Debacle: German Expert Professor Fritz Vahrenholt Warns Of Severe Economic And Social Consequences
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- New Study: Earth And Venus Surface Warmth Largely Explained By Convection And Lapse Rate, Not CO2 Or Radiation
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- The South China Sea Has Not Been Cooperating With The Climate Change Narrative
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- New Study: The Antarctic Ice Sheet Gained Mass From 2020-2024 Due To Staggering Snow And Ice Accumulation
- Study: Ocean Heating Rates From Thousands Of Years Ago ‘Dwarf’ Modern Ocean Heating Rates
