46 IPCC Scientists Break Rank, Publicly Challenge Long-Standing Dogmatic Climate Claims
Cracks in the facade of global climate science get wider as a significant group of experts chooses to break rank
By P Gosselin | No Tricks Zone | May 5, 2026
According to a recent report by the German online TKP, a movement is gaining momentum within the scientific community that threatens to dismantle the official IPCC narrative from the inside out. This rebellion is led by 46 scientists, many of whom have direct experience working with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, who are now publicly challenging the foundational claims that have dictated global policy for decades.
The heart of their argument lies in the fundamental failure of current climate models.
These prestigious researchers – among them Dr. Robert Balling, Dr. Lucka Bogataj, Dr. John Christy and Dr. Judith Curry – contend that the IPCC has relied on simulations that are heavily biased toward human-induced CO2 while systematically ignoring or downplaying natural variables. By prioritizing political consensus over raw data, these models have consistently overestimated global warming, creating a gap between alarmist predictions and the actual temperature trends observed over the last several years.
The scientists suggest that the “climate emergency” is less a scientific reality and more an ideological construct designed to drive the Net Zero agenda.
Power natural factors ignorerd by IPCC
Furthermore, this group highlights the critical role of natural drivers that are often missing from the mainstream conversation. They point to solar activity, atmospheric water vapor, and complex cloud cycles as the true drivers of Earth’s climate. By looking back at historical periods like the Medieval Warm Period, they argue that the planet’s current warming is well within the bounds of natural variability and is not the unprecedented catastrophe it is often portrayed to be.
Culture of scientific suppression
Perhaps most concerning is the article’s depiction of a scientific community under pressure. The rebelling scientists describe a culture of suppression where dissenting opinions are sidelined through the loss of funding, career gatekeeping, and media blackouts. This internal collapse suggests that the “science is settled” mantra is no longer sustainable.
Dogmna coming to an end
As these 46 voices come forward, they signal a shift toward a more skeptical, data-driven approach that prioritizes objective reality over the prevailing political narrative, suggesting that the era of unquestioned climate dogma may be coming to an end.
Iran’s ‘threat’ to Western hegemony is not nuclear weapons
By Samuel Geddes | Al Mayadeen | May 9, 2026
US Secretary of State Rubio on Wednesday declared “Operation Epic Fury” concluded, the clearest indication so far that the US is writhing in the economic trap it sprung on itself. Being in a state of institutional paralysis, unable to accept the costs of ending the war while unable to tolerate its continuation, the Trump administration is attempting to find an equilibrium that allows hostilities to cease, while keeping as much as possible of its “maximum pressure” on Iran’s economy.
In precisely this vein, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in recent days has been unable to conceal his glee at the economic privation imposed on the Iranian people by his policies, attributing both the Riyal’s late 2025 collapse and the impending effects of the naval blockade on its oil production to “[Operation] Economic Fury.”
Since the inception of the Islamic Republic 47 years ago, the United States has weaponized its dominance in the global economy to impose one of the most comprehensive sanctions regimes ever implemented.
With each successive layer of economic siege deployed against the Iranians, US administrations and their surrogate regimes across the collective west, along with their propagandists in the media, painted this undeclared war as solely targeting “the regime.” The Iranian people themselves, they would have us believe, were never the intended targets.
This was, of course, only ever a rhetorical sleight of hand. The sanctions were “targeted” at the “regime” only in the sense that they were intended to make everyday life so unbearable that the Iranian public would blame their own leadership and overthrow it. The exact reason why they would primarily blame their own government, rather than Washington, London, Berlin and so-on, has never been rationalized. It is simply the economic strangulation of Gaza and Cuba that has been scaled up to the macro-level. Collective punishment of the entire population is the point, either to induce domestic rebellion, or to discipline them for not carrying out Western policy goals.
With the restarting of active war from February 28, Washington has reverted to implementing this strategy by its most direct means. Instead of choking off medicines to the health system, it simply bombed the health system itself, from critical national hospitals to the Pasteur Institute that produced domestic vaccines against the Covid pandemic. Instead of blacklisting Iranian students from foreign institutions, it bombs the Iranian universities that have been the engines of the nation’s indigenous industries, civilian, industrial and military since the siege began in 1980. Beyond merely sanctioning Iran’s industrial output, it is now robbing it of its revenues by attacking the steel plants of Isfahan and Ahvaz and the Asalouyeh petrochemical complexes.
The logical framing of these targets is that they are aimed at degrading Iran’s capacity to manufacture missiles, drones and its still non-existent nuclear weapons. By this reasoning, literally every economic sector, every potential source of revenue for the Iranian state is a target. It lays bare the true motivation not only behind the current war, but also behind the entire campaign of economic, political, and diplomatic coercion that the West has thrown at the country since its Revolution. It is not simply that Iranian nuclear program is unacceptable to Washington, London, Berlin, Paris and Tel Aviv, it is mainly the existence of an Iranian steel industry, pharmaceutical sector, ship-building capacity and space program. The very existence of an entrenched, self-sufficient and technologically progressing economy outside of the Western-dominated world system constitutes, by its nature, a systemic threat that cannot be tolerated. It must either be economically absorbed and dismantled from within or militarily destroyed.
It is a fear of the vastly enhanced economic and technological weight of an Iran unburdened by secondary sanctions, reaping tens of billions of dollars in taxes on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and fundamentally restructuring the security and economic architecture of the Gulf, that explains the Trump administration’s unwillingness to end the state of war, even as it pushes the global economy deeper into existential crisis every day.
Tehran’s incentive, and its ability to demand, maximal concessions to accept an end to war however will not decline over time, it will increase inversely to the US tolerance for economic pain. Thus, Washington is at some point going to make at least one existentially humiliating concession to extricate itself from the crisis it created. It might agree to suspend all secondary sanctions against the Islamic Republic, or accept Tehran’s demonstrated capacity to tax traffic through Hormuz or permanently evacuate its bases in the region. It might even do all of these.
The blockade might plausibly remain as a face-saving fiction- the US navy clearly dares not intercept Iranian shipments heading to China. Over time, alternate land and sea corridors will compensate for the disruption to Iranian shipping.
When Washington eventually does cave it will have achieved the exact opposite of its intentions in launching its aggression: a vastly more economically empowered Islamic Republic with the throat of the world economy in its hand.
Trump’s choices are limited to accepting a far more economically powerful Iran now or accepting it later after a catastrophic resumption of hostilities. Maybe then, he will have learned precisely why none of his predecessors acted as he has.
Iran warns UAE, Bahrain over alignment with US, Israeli interests
Al Mayadeen | May 9, 2026
Senior Iranian lawmakers issued sharp warnings to Gulf states on Friday, cautioning against supporting the US-backed resolution against Tehran and threatening consequences for countries aligning themselves with Washington and “Israel” amid escalating regional tensions.
Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, warned that governments supporting the resolution will face perpetual closure of the Strait.
In a post on X, Azizi stated, “We warn governments, including microstates like Bahrain, that siding with the US-backed resolution will bring severe consequences.”
“The Strait of Hormuz is a vital lifeline; do not risk closing it on yourselves forever,” he warned.
UAE insignificant in the broader war: Ruhollah Azad
Separately, Iranian parliament presidium member Rouhollah Motefakker Azad said the United States and “Israel” were facing inevitable defeat in their war with the Iranian people and resistance fighters.
“The defeat of the Americans and Zionists in the battle against the Iranian people and their fighters is inevitable, and signs of this defeat have begun to emerge on all fronts,” he said.
Motefakker Azad also warned the United Arab Emirates against becoming involved in the conflict, arguing that Abu Dhabi should avoid acting in support of Israeli and American interests. “If the UAE possesses strategic rationality, it will never place itself in a predicament greater than its size and capabilities for the sake of the interests of the Zionists and America, who have failed in this arena,” he said.
He added that Iran had demonstrated its ability to contain the actions of both the United States and Israel, dismissing the UAE as insignificant in the war.
“The Emiratis are advised to understand the rules of this war and refrain from entering an arena beyond their capacity and scale,” he said.
Military, public, diplomacy; main pillars of Iran’s strategy
Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said on Friday that Tehran will continue its diplomatic efforts “based on logic and ethics,” while stressing that the country remains “very firm in defending its rights,” according to remarks made during a meeting with managers of the Mobarakeh Steel Company.
Aref said Iran’s strategy is built on three main pillars: the “military arena, the street, and diplomacy,” calling for national planning that reflects Iran’s status as a “major global power.”
He also urged faster progress on reconstruction, renewal, and upgrading of damaged industries, emphasizing the need to accelerate recovery efforts.
‘Little Sparta’: Why The UAE Attacked Iran for Israel’s Sake
By Robert Inlakesh | The Palestine Chronicle | May 9, 2026
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been accused of launching direct strikes targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure, while escalating its anti-Tehran rhetoric and having lobbied the US to return to all-out regional war. Although on the surface of things, it would appear nonsensical for such a small and fragile country to commit itself to reckless actions of these kinds, the UAE is no ordinary Gulf State.
While presenting itself as an innovative nation, one that is dissimilar to its neighbors in that its focus is the creation of wealth, “unity” and “peace”, the UAE fosters an image of a wise and inviting leadership that caters to outsiders. Utilizing their immense oil wealth, Abu Dhabi’s rulers have managed to construct an image of themselves that is almost as artificial as Dubai’s Skyline.
Behind the “tallest building” and “deepest pool” in the world are not talented Emirati architects, hard labor, and meticulous planners; instead, there are foreign experts and modern-day slaves. Although the Emirati rulers may be the ones who own everything and their people the ones who reap the benefits, even their prized oil industry would be nothing without all the foreigners who did everything for them.
Interestingly, both their foreign intelligence operations and oil industry have been heavily influenced by Palestinians, specifically from the Gaza Strip, and other non-Emirati Arabs, who helped make their nation run. Many of their police patrol officers are not their own nationals either, while 80% of their armed forces are foreigners.
The “peace” and “unity” that they promote are simply a Zionist project to attack the resistance to Israel’s expansionist endeavors. Not only were the ‘Abraham Accords’ lobbied for by the UAE, with it using its influence in Sudan and Morocco to bring even more States on board, but their entire national project has also been centered around assassinating pan-Arab and pan-Islamic unity.
Not only does the UAE use “inter-faith” projects to normalize Zionism and Zionists amongst Muslims, it actively controls a host of Islamic influencers, sheiks, Quran reciters, and scholars, whose role is to target impressionable Muslims. These individuals are used to push sectarianism, especially against Twelver Shias, but even against fellow Sunni Muslims who refuse to comply with their views.
Across the region, the UAE, known amongst its war hawk allies as ‘Little Sparta’, pursues a bloodthirsty approach, especially across the Horn of Africa. In Sudan, it is the primary backer of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of warlord Muhammad Dagalo (Hemedti), a militant group accused of committing genocide. In Gaza, they are also accused of backing the Israeli-controlled ISIS-linked death squads, used to fight against the Palestinian resistance.
In Libya, they provided support to warlord Khalifa Haftar’s men, while propping up the Southern Transitional Council (STC) separatists in Yemen. They claim to oppose “Islamists” and “Islamic extremism”, while they actively promote Wahhabi Islam, with the political goal of encouraging the most malignant forms of sectarianism. Their only true opposition to ‘Islamists’ is a stance against the Muslim Brotherhood and all groups who dare to challenge Israel, and/or the United States in any way.
To demonstrate the depths of their hypocrisy, consider that the toughest fighters belonging to their STC proxy forces in Yemen were former Al-Qaeda and ISIS militants. In the name of combating the so-called “Islamist threat” of the Ansarallah government in Sana’a, the UAE decided to throw its weight behind hardline Salafist militants.
When it comes to the Iran conflict, the UAE optical illusion is also in effect. It played victim, feigned neutrality, while simultaneously pushing claims that it managed to intercept more Iranian missiles and drones than the Israelis did. In this way, it becomes both the hero and victim, but in an even less believable way than the Zionists, who clearly have more believable propaganda.
In reality, the UAE not only provided a launching pad for the illegal US-Israeli attack on Iran, but had even fully integrated its air defense systems with Israel following their normalisation agreement. They were providing the Israelis with information used to help them combat Iranian retaliatory strikes on their territory, while the Emirati-owned Wing Loong II UAVs were used to monitor Iranian airspace in support of the US-Israeli aggression.
While the US certainly used other Persian Gulf Arab States to attack the Islamic Republic, none were so enthusiastic as Abu Dhabi’s leadership. Oman is the only country in the region that did not allow for its territory to be used for offensive action against Iran, while Qatar began developing a more neutral tone, especially as the war progressed, the UAE went the opposite direction. Eventually, the Emirati anti-Iran rhetoric escalated to the degree that the Emirati rulers began labeling Tehran as terrorists.
Understanding why is crucial to comprehending the nature of the UAE as an entity in the Persian Gulf. Contrary to its propaganda, Abu Dhabi is the means through which Israeli and Western imperial power is harnessed.
The British, who helped form the “Trucial States” that would later band together under the leadership of Abu Dhabi and become the United Arab Emirates in 1971, referred to them as “pirates”. This legacy of being a disrespected puppet of the empire is something that holds true until this day, where the ultra-rich Emirati leadership enthusiastically does the bidding of their superiors.
In only 54 years, the regime along the Persian Gulf has managed to present to the world a model of what unfettered materialism leads to. A regime that operates off of oil money, which wouldn’t exist without foreign know-how and intelligence. It looks down on other Arabs, despite it needing them to function or to have become what it is.
It claims to represent a moderate and peaceful version of Islam, promoting Madkhali Wahhabi voices who promote it as a model of socially conservative religion and claim it represents a leadership that follows the virtues of Tawheed (monotheism) above all others. Simultaneously, Dubai is a representation of everything that Islam opposes socially, while the same pro-UAE preachers who want to excommunicate ordinary Muslims from their religion over the slightest disagreements will sit back as Hindu Temples are openly constructed.
It has been involved in aiding two genocides, perhaps a third if you consider the 400,000 deaths in Yemen to constitute a genocide also. Even today in Somalia, only it and Israel recognize and back the Somaliland separatist movement, which could contribute to major future bloodshed.
All of this is relevant to keep in mind as the UAE is as artificial and malignant to the region as the Israelis are. Both have utter contempt for the people surrounding them, refuse to acknowledge the limits of their power, and have major narcissism complexes. In the UAE, they have to monitor every square inch of their territory, censor everyone’s thoughts, killing, deporting or imprisoning anyone who refuses to go along with stroking their fragile egos.
Ultimately, the UAE is just as complicit in regional atrocities as are the Israelis, which is why it is no surprise that they decided to directly join the illegal US-Israeli war on Iran. Their mission is to conquer, dominate and destroy the surrounding region, in order to come out on top, working hand in hand with the Zionists to do so. Now that their tourism industry has been devastated and they have taken significant blows, that only reinforces the idea of aiding the Israelis in pursuing their expansionist endeavors.
Recent history alone has demonstrated that the UAE is willing to clash with neighboring Saudi Arabia, however irrational that idea may have been, and how quickly Riyadh managed to quash their separatist proxy project in Yemen. They also demonstrated in 2017 that they were willing to push Qatar to the breaking point, in order to demand on Israel’s behalf that they stop providing financial support to Hamas, as well as using Al-Jazeera to air coverage favorable of Palestinians.
The UAE is not a normal country; it doesn’t have thousands of years of history like neighboring Oman, it is an aggressive asset that cares only for expanding the power of its monarchy. Therefore, it is to be assumed that it will participate in continued attacks on its neighbors, while wearing the cloak of plausible deniability.
However, the Emiratis are likely to find out against Iran, what they quickly learned when they recently clashed with Saudi Arabia, they are not Israel and can’t behave as such without consequences.
– Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary filmmaker. He focuses on the Middle East, specializing in Palestine.
Iran Blames European Tanker for Oil Slick Near Kharg
Al-Manar | May 9, 2026
Iran dismissed on Saturday allegations it deliberately discharged crude into the Gulf and instead blamed a foreign tanker for the pollution near the Kharg Island.
Jafar Pourkabgani, a member of Iran’s parliament representing Bushehr, said claims that Iran dumped excess oil due to full storage tanks are “completely unfounded” and part of “psychological warfare.”
In a post on X, he attributed the slicks detected by satellite imagery to oil and ballast water released by a European tanker, describing the incident as a source of significant environmental damage.
Satellite analysis cited by The New York Times indicates the spill has spread over more than 20 square miles (52 square kilometers), making it one of the largest observed in the Gulf in recent months. UK-based monitoring firm Orbital EOS said the scale of the slick is notable amid heightened regional tensions following the Israeli-American aggression on Iran on February 28.
For its part, the Conflict and Environment Observatory noted that the origin of the spill is still unclear, warning that it is drifting southward and may not be effectively contained.
The incident has drawn attention due to its proximity to Kharg Island, the backbone of Iran’s oil industry, through which roughly 90 percent of the country’s crude exports pass. Located north of the Strait of Hormuz, the island is a critical artery for global energy supplies, amplifying concerns over both environmental risks and potential disruptions to oil markets.
Hamas leaders say targeting families will fail to extract concessions

Palestinian Information Center – May 8, 2026
Khalil al-Hayya, head of the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas, in the Gaza Strip, said Israel’s attempts to impose its will through assassinations and attacks on political leaders and their families “will fail,” following the assassination of his son Azzam al-Hayya in an Israeli strike on Gaza City.
Speaking during a memorial gathering on Thursday, al-Hayya described the martyrdom of his son, alongside several other Palestinians, including neighbor Hamza al-Sharbasi, as part of a continuing campaign targeting Palestinian families and resistance leaders.
He said the martyrdom of Palestinians would only strengthen the struggle for the liberation of Palestine and Jerusalem, adding that Israel’s efforts to pressure negotiators through violence would not succeed.
Al-Hayya also linked the attack to previous Israeli strikes targeting Hamas negotiators in Qatar last year, saying the Movement continued negotiations “on behalf of its people and national interests,” despite ongoing attacks.
Meanwhile, Khaled Mishaal, head of the Hamas Movement abroad, praised al-Hayya’s resilience during the funeral gathering, describing the loss of multiple sons and relatives as “a great sacrifice.”

Mishaal said Gaza continues to “write epics of steadfastness and sacrifice” despite the Israeli war, siege, and destruction, arguing that the suffering endured by Palestinians increases the responsibility of the wider Arab and Muslim world toward Gaza and the Palestinian cause.
He also called for greater support for Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, Jerusalem, and Palestinian prisoners, while stressing that the sacrifices made during the war were “not only for Palestine but for humanity as a whole.”
Harrowing testimonies expose Israeli torture of Gaza hospital director

Press TV – May 8, 2026
Former Palestinian detainees have come forward with disturbing firsthand accounts of the systematic torture inflicted on Dr. Hussam Abu Safia, director of Gaza’s Kamal Adwan Hospital, during his detention in an Israeli prison.
Rami Abu Amira, a former prisoner, described how interrogators stripped Dr. Abu Safia naked and set police dogs on his frail body, leaving deep wounds and scratches.
Ahmad Qaddas recounted that the prison cells echoed with the doctor’s screams as he endured severe beatings.
He said he could no longer recognize Abu Safia due to extreme weight loss and his dazed, barely conscious state.
“He was physically shattered,” Qaddas added. Another former detainee, Hamza Abu Amira, spoke of the “relentless humiliation” and combined physical and psychological torture carried out by specialized Israeli prison units.
Guards reportedly forced Dr. Abu Safia to repeat degrading phrases while inflicting extreme pain in an apparent effort to break him.
Prisoners also described repeated night raids on their cell using sound grenades and tear gas canisters. Other detainees were strictly forbidden from approaching his cell or inquiring about his condition.
Dr. Abu Safia has been held since 27 December 2024, when Israeli forces abducted him during their assault on Kamal Adwan Hospital — the last functioning hospital in northern Gaza at the time. Even after an Israeli airstrike killed his own son, he had refused to abandon his post and his patients.
In March, UN Special Rapporteurs Tlaleng Mofokeng and Ben Saul confirmed receiving credible reports of his torture and the systematic denial of medical care.
They warned that his life was in grave danger and urged countries with influence over Israel to intervene.
Yet the US and its Western allies have taken no meaningful action to halt Tel Aviv’s brutality.
A UK-based human rights organization described his arrest as part of Israel’s broader policy of systematically targeting Palestinian health workers and destroying Gaza’s healthcare system — actions it said were intended to create conditions calculated to bring about the physical destruction of the Palestinian people.
Dr. Abu Safia is one of at least 737 Palestinian medical workers arbitrarily detained by Israeli forces since October 2023.
During the same period, at least 1,722 medical personnel have been killed — an average of more than two per day.
The World Health Organization has documented over 930 attacks on Gaza’s healthcare system, with all 36 hospitals damaged or destroyed and only half partially functional.
These assaults form part of a deliberate campaign to annihilate Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure as an integral component of Israel’s genocidal war on the Strip, which has so far claimed more than 72,500 Palestinian lives since October 2023.
UAE provides $100m for US-backed Gaza police force vetted by Shin Bet
The Cradle | May 8, 2026
The UAE has sent $100 million to US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace to fund the training of a new Palestinian police force for Gaza, the Times of Israel reported on 8 May, citing a US official and a diplomat from West Asia.
Setting up a security force to control Gaza on Israel’s behalf will reportedly allow Tel Aviv to sideline Hamas while reducing the presence of the Israeli army, which is suffering from manpower shortages.
The police force is being organized under the umbrella of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), a panel of Palestinian technocrats tasked by the Board of Peace and Israel to administer the Strip.
Though the NCAG was created three months ago, its members have not yet entered the Strip, reportedly due to a lack of funding and security.
“No money is currently available,” Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenovas privately acknowledged, according to a Palestinian official familiar with the matter speaking with Reuters.
The proposal envisions the new police force seizing weapons in Gaza as part of the effort to disarm Hamas.
Nevertheless, Hamas has yet to agree to disarm, as Israel has not adhered to the terms of the US-sponsored ceasefire that was signed in October 2025.
According to the ceasefire agreement, Israel was required to withdraw their forces to areas near the border, dismantle all military sites and installations, allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes in the north of the Strip, open the Rafah crossing, and allow humanitarian aid to enter freely.
Israel has also killed over 800 Palestinians in Gaza since the ceasefire took effect.
In February, the NCAG began recruiting for the new 27,000-strong police force. Recruits will be vetted by Israel’s internal security service, the Shin Bet, according to an Arab diplomat who spoke with the Times of Israel in March.
An Emirati security firm will train the recruits in Egypt and Jordan before dispatching them to Gaza.
In February, US President Donald Trump announced $17 billion in pledges for the Board of Peace at a donor conference. He also demanded that world leaders contribute $1 billion each for a seat on the board, which he said would rival the UN.
However, the $100 million contribution from the UAE is the largest pledged amount the board has received so far. The board has not received the billions in contributions initially pledged by the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.
One source with direct knowledge of the peace board’s operations told Reuters that Washington and Tel Aviv’s war of aggression against Iran “affected everything.”
The Board of Peace is also working to establish and deploy a proposed International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza, which is expected to include soldiers from several foreign countries. This move would enable the Israeli army to further outsource its ethnic cleansing efforts.
Indonesia, Albania, Kazakhstan, and Kosovo have each pledged troops to the ISF, but so far none have been deployed or begun training, amid fears they may have to use violence to disarm Hamas on Israel’s behalf.
The UAE has supported Israel not only in Gaza but also in its war with Iran.
The New York Times reported on Friday that the UAE has “doubled down on its alliances with Israel and the United States,” despite Iranian drone and missile strikes targeting the Emirates in retaliation for their support for the US-Israeli war on the Islamic Republic.
“There is a trust premium that Trump will do the right thing,” said Nadim Koteich, an Emirati-Lebanese commentator who is close to the Emirati government. “What suits his legacy and what suits the American interests suits us.”
The UAE has also partnered with Israel and Somaliland to create a new “strategic axis” in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea in a bid to project power into Africa and counter the Ansarallah-led Yemeni Armed Forces.
Britain quietly approves $11.85m arms licence to Israel despite Gaza ban
MEMO | May 8, 2026
The UK Department for Business and Trade (DBT) has granted two new licences for the export of military equipment to Israel, including an £8.7 ($11.85) million licence covering “components and technology for targeting equipment”, the Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT) has revealed.
The licences were issued despite the British government’s September 2024 suspension of such exports over fears they would be used in Israel’s genocide in Gaza. CAAT’s analysis of UK export licensing statistics for the fourth quarter of 2025, published on 30 April, found that the UK issued export licences worth £20.5 ($27.9) million in total for transfers to Israel during the quarter.
The most significant of the new approvals was an Open Individual Export Licence for “components and technology for targeting equipment” — a category of export the UK government had publicly suspended eight months earlier, citing the risk of use in Israel’s genocide in Gaza. When questioned about the licence, DBT replied that it “covers items for re-export from Israel, and the Government of Israel is not an end-user or ultimate end-user. This is consistent with our suspension”.
CAAT said the defence rested on a legal fiction. The watchdog warned of the risk of “auto-diversion”: a process by which Israel can fail to retransfer military equipment to its declared destination and instead assign it to an unauthorised end-user, such as the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), for use in Gaza.
Such a move would constitute a breach of the export licence and a potential criminal offence under UK law. British ministers have previously said they would revoke any licence should “any evidence” emerge that exported equipment had not reached its declared destination, but CAAT noted that the UK government makes no known efforts to verify what happens to its military exports after they leave Britain.
The watchdog’s concerns are not theoretical. In March, an investigation revealed that an Elbit-owned subsidiary in the UK had shipped dozens of drone components, including Watchkeeper engines, to Israel over an 18-month period.
Israel had failed to retransfer the equipment to Romania as required by the licence, citing force majeure arising from its assault on Gaza. The contract with Romania has still not been fulfilled. Elbit announced it would start delivering the drones only two days after Romania threatened to cancel the contract.
A second new licence covers components for military training aircraft, and related technology, for transfer to France, Greece, Israel and Italy — likely supplied by the US aerospace firm Moog for the M-346 Lead-In Fighter Trainer produced by Italy’s Leonardo.
The M-346 is used in every phase of advanced and pre-operational training for Israeli pilots before they fly combat missions in Gaza, Iran and Lebanon using F-16 and F-35 jets. Israel has caused massive devastation with F-35 jets across Gaza, Iran and Lebanon. Similar components shipped by Moog from the UK were recently seized by authorities in Belgium, who have since opened a criminal investigation.
CAAT’s Research Coordinator Sam Perlo-Freeman said the new licences exposed the limits of the British government’s stated policy.
“These new export licenses show just how willing the UK is to continue enabling Israel’s genocidal assaults, while staying within the technical rule of a vastly insufficient and ineffective policy towards IDF war crimes,” he said.
“The targeting equipment for which DBT granted a license, for transfer to and re-export by Israel, could easily be used in Gaza. Given Israel’s history of weapons diversion and illicit transfers, and outstanding questions about Elbit drone components failing to arrive in Romania, there remains a grave risk that Israel will auto-divert the targeting equipment to the IDF for use in Palestine.”
Perlo-Freeman explained that the British government was leaning on a system of declarations it has no power to enforce. “DBT is relying on end-user undertakings that hold no legal force in Israel, which the UK government does not check up on and cannot enforce. The exporter is technically in-the-clear, so long as it can’t be shown they knew the end-user undertaking was false.”
US-Iran ‘Calibrated Escalation’ Risks Sliding Into All-Out War – Expert
By Ekaterina Blinova – Sputnik – 08.05.2026
A “calibrated escalation” is likely to follow the overnight US-Iran clash in the Strait of Hormuz, veteran war correspondent Elijah J. Magnier tells Sputnik.
“Return to full-scale war remains possible, but neither side appears eager for an immediate all-out confrontation,” Magnier says.
“What is more likely in the near term is a continuation of calibrated escalation, which means maritime incidents, allies being attacked, cyber operations, targeted strikes, and limited exchanges designed to impose pressure without triggering a wider or regional war.”
Both sides assess different forms of leverage, according to the pundit:
- The US can escalate vertically by deploying additional military forces and intensifying confrontation
- Iran can escalate horizontally by widening pressure geographically and economically without engaging in direct confrontation
- Both sides show restraint, but prolonged escalation increases the risk of miscalculation
“Therefore, one strike causing mass casualties, damage to strategic energy infrastructure, or a direct attack on senior leadership — such as targeted assassinations — could rapidly push both sides beyond the current threshold,” Magnier warns.
