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Major banks, food & cosmetics brands linked to massive abuses in palm oil industry – report

RT | September 27, 2020

Renowned food and cosmetics firms could have used palm oil produced by workers suffering from various abuses – from threats to rape – while global lenders finance the exploiting companies, AP reported, citing its investigation.

According to the report, based on accounts of over 130 current and former workers from two dozen palm oil companies in Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as rights activists’ claims and journalists’ first-hand experiences, millions of people may be exploited at the palm oil plantations. The long list of alleged mistreatment includes threats and being held against one’s will, while the most severe abuses include child labor, slavery and allegations of rape.

While palm oil is widely used in a long list of daily products, it is sometimes hard to trace as it can be found under various names on labels. However, the most recent data from producers, traders and buyers of palm oil, cited in the investigation, indicate that the tainted product made its way to the supply chains of such industry giants as Unilever, L’Oreal, Nestle and Procter & Gamble. It could be used by the producers of Oreo cookies, Lysol cleaners and Hershey’s chocolate treats, the report claims.

“We gave our sweat and blood for palm oil,” said Zin Ko Ko Htwe, who was enslaved at one of the plantations for several years, but eventually managed to escape. He added that when European and US consumers see palm oil on a label, they should understand that “it’s the same as consuming our sweat and blood.”

Some big-name banks and financial institutions across Asia and beyond were mentioned in the report as financiers of the palm oil industry, which mainly relies on supplies from Malaysia and Indonesia. Out of $12 billion worth of investment inflows over in the last five years, around $3.5 billion reportedly came from the US’ BNY Mellon, Charles Schwab, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup, along with Europe’s HSBC, Standard Chartered, Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse and Prudential. Some of the massive inflows could have come not directly, but through third parties like Malaysia-based Maybank.

When asked to comment on the report, some lenders noted that their investments were small or simply declined to answer, while others responded by pointing out their policies vowing to support sustainability practices in the palm oil industry. Meanwhile, some brands mentioned in the report said that they were aware of abuses in the industry, claiming that they are trying to work with ethically sourced palm oil.

September 27, 2020 Posted by | Aletho News | | Leave a comment

Cheaper Than Remdesivir: Russia to Supply Anti-COVID Avifavir to 17 Countries

In late May, Russia registered the world’s first anti-COVID-19 drug, based on favipiravir, an antiviral medication. The medicine has been extensively used in Russian clinics to treat coronavirus disease since June, and has since been obtained by hospitals in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Bolivia and a number of other countries.

The Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), the investor which funded the development of the world’s first vaccine against coronavirus, and Moscow-based ChemRar Group have agreed to supply the anti-COVID drug Avifavir to 17 countries.

Avifavir, the world’s first favipiravir-based drug to be approved for the treatment of COVID-19, will now be delivered to Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Serbia, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Kuwait, Panama, Paraguay, Slovakia, South Africa, the UAE and Uruguay.

After being first registered in Russia on 29 May 2020, it has already been used for COVID-19 treatment in more than 70 Russian regions and subsequently purchased by Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.The efficacy of favipiravir against COVID-19 has been confirmed by Japan’s Fujifilm Holdings Corp, several months after Avifavir trials in Russia.

Avifavir as the Leading Anti-Covid Drug in the Russian Market

RDIF notes that in comparison to other Russian manufacturers of favipiravir, Avifavir has proven to be more effective when treating more than 400 patients, who fell ill with the coronavirus disease since April. The drug has now been approved by European, Middle Eastern and Asian regulators, becoming Russia’s number one anti-coronavirus medication for export.

According to RDIF, it is also a much cheaper option in comparison to Remdesivir, a favipiravir-based drug produced in the United States.

“When we registered the first anti-coronavirus drug in the world based on favipiravir, there was a lot of scepticism as people were wondering how we could register it when Japan had not registered it yet,” says Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund. “Now five months after our clinical trials, we see that Japan has confirmed the clinical efficacy of favipiravir.”

The RDIF CEO stresses that apart from clinical trials which were conducted at 35 medical centres in Russia, Avifavir’s efficiency has also been tested by 940 patients in observational post-registration studies, which made it “the largest clinical trial of a favipiravir-based drug against coronavirus in the world”.

“Based on our extensive clinical trials and the research in Japan confirming favipiravir’s efficacy against coronavirus we believe that Avifavir and other favipiravir-based products will be the leading antiviral medicines against COVID-19 in the world,” Dmitriev adds. “In addition to proven efficacy and safety Avifavir is also three to four times cheaper than Remdesivir.”

Trials Confirm Avifavir’s Efficiency

According to the results of post-registration clinical trials, those patients taking Avifavir recovered more quickly from COVID-19 symptoms, as in 30% of cases the virus was eliminated at an early stage, while the level of oxygen saturation in the patient’s blood was also restored to normal two times more quickly than when traditional therapy was applied. No adverse effects from the drug’s use have been reported. Meanwhile, the third phase of clinical trials of the Japanese favipiravir-based drug Avigan also showed a shorter time of recovery among patients with non-severe pneumonia, according to the results published on 23 September.

RDIF, Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, has also been involved in the development of the world’s first anti-coronavirus vaccine, dubbed Sputnik V, which was registered in Russia on 11 August. The country has now received a request for 1 billion doses of the vaccine from at least 20 countries, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Philippines, Mexico, Brazil and India.

September 24, 2020 Posted by | Aletho News | , , | Leave a comment

Iran has no military presence in region, only supplies defense know-how: Armed Forces spokesman

Press TV – September 23, 2020

Iran has only provided Yemen with the know-how in the defense sector, says the spokesman for the Iranian Armed Forces, dismissing claims about the Islamic Republic’s military presence and ‘intervention’ in the region.

“We provided them (Yemenis) with the technical experiences in the defense sector. They have learned how to produce missiles, drones and weapons in Yemen on their own,” Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi said in a televised program on Tuesday.

He emphasized that Iran has not supplied Yemen with missiles. “We have shared our experience and knowledge with the Yemeni people.”

Unlike what the enemy is trying to portray, Yemenis are a very cultured and smart people who have managed to manufacture missiles and the most advanced drones at the shortest possible time while they have also made great headway in the electronic warfare, the Iranian military official said.

Shekarchi once again reiterated that Iran has no plan to have military presence anywhere and added that the country merely has “spiritual and advisory presence” in the region.

“Countries of the resistance front have armies and forces themselves. We provide them with advisory help. In order to share our experience with the people of Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, our skilled forces go there and assist them, but this is the people and armies of these countries who stand against the enemies in practice.”

He said Iran would provide whatever help it can for any country standing against the Israeli regime and the United States.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh earlier this month slammed as “baseless” a report published by the United Nations’ Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) alleging that Tehran has been sending arms to war-torn Yemen.

“Placing Iran’s name next to those supplying weapons to the Saudi coalition against Yemen is completely wrong,” Khatibzadeh said.

Since March 2015, Saudi Arabia has been striking Yemen with the help of its regional allies and largely assisted by Western-supplied weapons which have been indiscriminately used against Yemeni civilians.

Despite numerous bids to stop arms sales, top Western arms suppliers such as the United States, Britain, Canada, France and Germany have pushed through with lethal weapons shipments to the oil-rich kingdom.

According to a CNN investigation released in October 2019, the American-made weapons, supplied to Washington’s allies involved in the war on Yemen, end up in the hands of US-backed militants fighting against each other in the impoverished state.

The report found that American military hardware has been distributed to militant groups in Yemen, including the southern separatists backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), al-Qaeda-linked militants and hardline Salafi militias.

September 23, 2020 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , | Leave a comment

Iran says no need for European arms, will buy weapons from Russia, China

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif
Press TV – September 20, 2020

Iran’s foreign minister says the country will meet its strategic needs by purchasing weapons from Russia and China, and has no need for European weapons once the UN embargo is lifted in October.

Mohammad Javad Zarif made the remarks in a televised interview on Saturday night in reaction to a possible initiative by France, Germany, and the UK to restrict the sale of weapons to Iran following the October expiration of the UN arms embargo against the Islamic Republic.

“We haven’t been a customer of European weapons, and they haven’t sold us weapons after the 1979 revolution. … They even ran a campaign during the 1980s imposed war [between Iran and Iraq] to prevent the delivery of arms to Iran,” Zarif said.

“We won’t force them to sell us weapons now, as we don’t need their weapons,” he noted.

Zarif said one-fourth of the arms purchases end up in the Persian Gulf region, while Iran is not part of this trade.

“However, Iran can meet its strategic needs through the countries it interacts with, like Russia and China; though it is self-sufficient in many cases, and is an exporter [of arms] itself,” Zarif said.

Thanks to God’s grace and the efforts of the country’s Armed Forces, “Iran has become self-sufficient in many cases, but in cases of need, other countries will have the right to trade with Iran once the UN embargo is lifted,” the Iranian top diplomat added.

Following a humiliating failure at the UN Security Council to secure an extension of the arms embargo against Iran, the United States recently threatened to use its “secondary” sanctions to block any arms trades with Tehran after the expiry of the UN ban next month.

US Special Representative for Venezuela and Iran Elliott Abrams claimed on Wednesday that Washington could deny access to the US market to anyone who trades in weapons with Tehran.

Sanctions “will have a very significant impact” on arms manufacturers and traders that seek to do business with Tehran, he told reporters.

The US initiative is expected to prevent European companies from selling weapons and military equipment to Iran.

‘Europe trying to save face after failure against US’

Zarif further pointed to the recent statement by France, Germany, and the UK in which they claimed they have “gone beyond their own commitments” towards Iran by launching the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX), a European mechanism which was supposed to facilitate trade with Iran amid the US sanctions.

“They are joking. The three self-proclaimed world powers failed to stand up to the US bullying. They failed, even though they may not have made so much efforts,” he said.

“Europeans had 11 commitments to fulfil, and the INSTEX was not even one of them, but a prerequisite for them. They failed to fulfil them and said Americans didn’t let them. If we accept their own words, they admitted Americans have kept them [from doing their part].”

“This is below Europe’s dignity. The economy of the European Union is bigger than America’s. Then why did you fail to resist the US’ bullying, which is now impacting you?” Zarif said, adding that the European statement is just meant to save their face.

His comments came in reaction to a statement by France, Germany and the UK delivered to the IAEA Board of Governors at the September 2020 meeting.

They said in the statement, “The E3 has worked hard to preserve the [2015 nuclear] agreement. We have gone beyond our own commitments to facilitate legitimate trade with Iran, including by introducing the INSTEX mechanism.”

‘Iran not to interfere in US elections’

In his Saturday interview, Zarif also denied the claim that the Islamic Republic is going to interfere in the upcoming US presidential elections.

“Despite Donald Trump’s claim that Iran is waiting for another person, these remarks only serve electoral purposes,” Zarif said.

“Iran is an independent country and does not meddle in US internal affairs,” he added.

Zarif said the US should first try to avoid coup plotting and violating people’s choices in other countries before accusing Iran of interfering in its elections.

He made the remarks in an apparent allusion to the CIA-orchestrated 1953 coup in Iran, which toppled the democratically-elected government of Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh.

‘Israel would defend itself had it possessed enough power’

Zarif further referred to the recent deals signed by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to normalize their relations with the Israeli regime in the hope that Tel Aviv could bring them peace and security.

“Our neighbors unfortunately think the regime can defend them. If Israel had such a power, it would have defended itself against the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas,” Zarif said.

He expressed regret that a regional country is forced to sign a deal with Israel so that Trump can use it for his presidential campaign.

“This happens when a country depends on the US for its defense,” Zarif said.

Bahrain and the UAE signed US-brokered normalization agreements with Israel during a ceremony in Washington on Tuesday.

The controversial event was slammed by many Arab and Muslim figures as a blatant betrayal of the Palestinian cause.

September 19, 2020 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Belarus Warns to Consider Tikhanovskaya’s Meeting With EU Foreign Ministers Meddling

Sputnik –

MINSK  The participation of former Belarusian presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya in the upcoming meeting of EU foreign ministers next week will amount to interference in Belarus’ internal affairs, Belarusian Foreign Ministry spokesman Anatoly Glaz said on Saturday.

“It could certainly be funny and curious if it were not so sad. It is quite obvious, in fact, that such actions, if any, are an impudent and open interference in the internal affairs of our country and complete disrespect for its citizens,” Glaz said.

“Why hold any elections at all if it is possible to simply appoint someone all the way convenient from abroad and pretend to build a relationship with them?” the spokesman said.

If the meeting ends up taking place with Tikhanovskaya’s participation, Glaz said there would be no need left to prove that “a course to undermine Belarus’ sovereignty is being implemented.”

“Of course, our principled and understandable position on this matter has already been communicated to the EU envoy in Minsk, as well as to the relevant persons in Brussels,” the spokesman added.

EU foreign ministers are scheduled to convene this upcoming Monday in Brussels. Tikhanovskaya’s press secretary Anna Krasulina has confirmed the Lithuanian-exiled Belarusian ex-presidential candidate’s attendance.

September 19, 2020 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

India’s overture to Taliban comes too late

The Taliban delegation at the opening ceremony of intra-Afghan talks, Doha, Qatar, September 12, 2020
By M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | Indian Punchline | September 15, 2020

The US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad was roundly criticised by Indian commentators when he last passed through Delhi in May and advised the officials he met with an earthy sense of realism and foreboding that it’s high time they got down from the high horse to try and begin a conversation with the Taliban.

The advice was well-meaning and pragmatic but the sense of urgency was lacking in Delhi which was rooted in the belief that the peace talks were aeons away. Indeed, the Afghan peace process was struggling to be born at that time but it was already clear that the US was determined to push for the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel of the forever war in time for President Trump to make some grand announcement on the eve of the November election.

Incidentally, a poll conducted by the New York-based Eurasia Group Foundation this week shows that two-thirds of Americans support Trump’s deal with the Taliban to extricate the US from the 19-year war in Afghanistan — and, only 10-15% favour continued military deployment.

Instead of rationally applying their mind, the Indian officials reportedly made a litany of pre-conditions to Khalilzad — the issue of terror emanating from Pakistan impacting peace in Afghanistan, “protection of rights of all sections of the Afghan society, including Afghan Hindus and Sikhs,” and so on.

The Indian readout said, “It was emphasised (to Khalilzad) that putting an end to terrorist safe havens and sanctuaries is necessary for enduring and sustainable peace and stability in Afghanistan.” It added that India also expressed its deep “concern at the upsurge in violence” and extended support for a “call for an immediate ceasefire” and need to “assist the people of Afghanistan in dealing with coronavirus pandemic.”

Simply put, our chaps were hanging tough. Suffice to say, when Khalilzad arrives in Delhi later today for yet another stopover, he is sure to get a pleasant surprise. After much huffing and puffing, the Indian establishment has calmed down and is doing precisely what he told them to do in May.

On top of External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar addressing the Doha forum virtually on September 12, a senior officer from his ministry was rushed to Qatar to be in the conference hall for the opening ceremony of the intra-Afghan talks. A senior Indian official has since claimed, “There is no ambiguity on the Indian position vis-à-vis engagement with Afghan parties as Indian delegation sat on the same table as the Afghan government as well as the Taliban. The host nation Qatar could have only made this possible after talking to all principal stake-holders in the Afghan dialogue.”

The unconditional U-turn in India’s Taliban policy is so complete that the Indian establishment is overnight celebrating the retreat as a grand historic success of diplomacy. Oh, what an ecstatic moment — to be able to sit around a big table with the Taliban!

The high probability is that Indians will have to settle for the shade for quite a while. From this point onward, the advantage goes to the Taliban — and Pakistan. The Taliban has reestablished control over many Afghan districts and killed tens of thousands of US-backed Afghan forces. With dwindling American support, Afghan forces’ capacity to withstand Taliban attacks will be significantly reduced in the period ahead.

That means the Taliban is set to gain control of even more territories unless it agrees to an immediate ceasefire, which seems unlikely. Just look at today’s developments — a district governor in Logar province reported that the Taliban attacked his residence killing one of his brothers and a personal bodyguard, wounding another brother; an intelligence agency officer and three others were wounded in Jalalabad city when the vehicle of the spy agency was ambushed in broad daylight with an improvised explosive device.

The main problem for India is that it stands in abject isolation today apropos the Afghan situation. Its ability to influence the course of the intra-Afghan negotiations is nil. None of the demands that Indian officials made to Khalilzad in May have been fulfilled. The Taliban maintains a strategic ambivalence on where it stands on a host of contentious issues such as the form of future government, women’s rights, new constitution and so on.

Alas, the Modi government remained the pillion rider on the Harley-Davidson bike all the way through the past decade and a half, but the bike is about to speed away to the far horizon heading for North America. Paradoxically, India’s best option today might be to act as a “spoiler”, but then, with the protracted standoff with China in Ladakh and with the LOC and J&K in a state of tension, a military deployment to Afghanistan is simply beyond India’s reach.

This is where the recent reshuffle of the Taliban delegation at the Doha talks assumes significance. Much speculation surrounds the appointment of the hardline cleric Mawlawi Abdul Hakim Haqqani as the Taliban’s chief negotiator for peace talks.

So far, all we know is that the ultraconservative Mawlawi Haqqani who replaces the previous “moderate” leadership of Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai and Mullah Baradar is a close associate of the Taliban supremo Haibatullah Akhunzada, and his appointment could be an attempt by the core leadership to reassert its direct control over the upcoming negotiations in Qatar.

But the big question is about Mawlawi Haqqani’s standing with Pakistan. The cleric cannot be a stranger to the Pakistani security establishment, since he had spent years lying low in Quetta, where the Afghan Taliban leadership has been based since the US invasion in 2001, and until recently he ran a madrasah from where he led the Taliban’s judiciary and headed a powerful council of clerics that issued religious edicts to regulate the ideology of the Islamic Emirate.

The point is Mawlawi Haqqani, who is in his early 60s, has been propelled into the spotlight and appointed the Taliban’s chief negotiator for peace talks just when the last hurdle of exchange of prisoners was overcome and the stage was being set in Doha for the curtain to rise.

Who stands to gain? China is actively promoting the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan. And Pakistan just tightened its grip on the peace talks. The crunch time has come. Pakistan holds a veto card and is determined to use it to marginalise India from the Afghan peace process. Given the Modi government’s hostility toward Pakistan and China, nothing else needs be expected.

The assassination attempt on First Vice-President Amrullah Saleh a week ago should be taken as a stark warning. India has lost the proxy war and this is how victorious Afghan groups have always entered the home stretch. At the very least, our pathway to the Taliban preferably should have run parallel with an overture to Pakistan. Khalilzad cannot do much to help us now.

September 15, 2020 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

‘Provocative & unacceptable’: Minsk says Lithuania’s recognition of Tikhanovskaya as Belarusian president breaks international law

By Jonny Tickle | RT | September 15, 2020

Lithuania’s decision to recognize Svetlana Tikhanovskaya as the leader of Belarus “violates the norms of international law,” according to a statement by the Council of the Republic, the upper house of parliament in Minsk.

Last week, the Lithuanian Seimas (parliament) adopted a resolution titled “On the Illegitimate Union Imposed by Russia on Belarus,” naming former presidential candidate Tikhanovskaya as the “elected leader” of the Belarusian people, and incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko as “illegitimate.”

“The decision of Lithuanian MPs to appoint a ‘leader of the people of Belarus’ is beyond the scope of common sense,” the Presidium of the Council of the Republic’s statement read. “Such actions are provocative and unacceptable, and violate the norms of international law.”

The statement also called Lithuania’s actions “blatant interference,” accusing the Seimas of “showing open disrespect for the sovereign right of the Belarusian people to choose their own leadership.”

Tikhanovskaya fled across Belarus’ northern border to Lithuania on August 11, two days after official election results suggested that she had come in a distant second place. Following the vote, thousands of Belarusians took to the streets throughout the country to protest over what they believe to have been a wholly rigged election. During days of demonstrations, police and internal troops used tear gas, stun grenades, and rubber bullets to disperse protesters, while strikes began at large factories.

Following her arrival in Lithuania, Tikhanovskaya formed a body called the Coordination Council, with the goal of organizing a peaceful transition of power away from President Lukashenko, and of holding new elections. The group, which includes Nobel Prize winner Svetlana Alexievich as part of its leadership, has been accused by the Belarusian authorities of “aiming to seize state power” and “harming national security.”

September 15, 2020 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

Hamas recycles shells from British ships sunk off Gaza during WWI

MEMO | September 15, 2020

The military wing of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement has apparently recycled shells found on the wrecks of British warships which were sunk off the coast of Gaza during World War One.

In a documentary film broadcast on Sunday, Al Jazeera revealed that Al-Qassam Brigades could in such a way overcome the consequences of the Israeli-led siege imposed on Gaza, which are in part intended to undermine its ability to manufacture weapons.

The internationally-backed siege has been in place for over 14 years. During this time, Israel has carried out three major offensives that have together killed thousands of Palestinians, wounded tens of thousands more and devastated the civilian infrastructure in the coastal territory.

For the first time, Hamas allowed its arms factories to be filmed. The documentary showed Hamas operatives recycling shells found in two sunken Royal Navy warships. The explosive in the shells was tested and, found to be still useable, was fitted into the warheads of Al-Qassam’s own rockets.

“Unfortunately, Hamas got there before us,” said Israeli TV reporter Nir Dvori on Tuesday, referring to the shells on the warships. “The Israeli army siege on Gaza made it difficult for Hamas to get metal and explosives to produce rockets. This pushed it to look for these materials in unconventional locations. Hamas marine personnel found these materials on board the warships.”

According to former sailor Rami Sidnai, the Israeli navy has been looking for the two British ships secretly. “Security issues prevented us from reaching them. Unfortunately, Hamas found them before us.”

Moreover, the documentary, produced by Palestinian journalist Tamer Al-Mishal, revealed how Al-Qassam fighters found a massive network of pipes installed before the Israeli disengagement from Gaza in 2005. The pipes were said to have been used to steal fresh water from the aquifer under the Gaza Strip. Al-Qassam promptly disassembled the network, extracted the pipes and used them to make rocket casings.

Additional explosives were removed from “hundreds” of unexploded Israel munitions after the 2014 military offensive against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh spoke on camera about regional and international pressure imposed on the movement to give up its arms and end its resistance to the Israeli occupation of Palestine. “Hamas gave no pledge to any mediator related to the development of resistance arms,” he insisted.

However, according to Dore Gold, a former Israeli Ambassador to the UN and advisor to Benjamin Netanyahu, “If we are ever going to develop peaceful relations between Israel and Palestinian groups in Gaza… dismantling Hamas’s infrastructure must be part of any potential deal in order to be feasible.”

Former Israeli General and National Security Advisor Yaakov Amidror conceded that the Palestinians have succeeded in building their [military] capabilities. “Today, they have ability to build weapon systems, mainly long-distance rockets. They have something very notable and have improved their domestic production. They learn all the time and improve their abilities. We exert many efforts to know about these abilities in order to neutralise them whenever we can.”

According to Ami Ayalon, the former head of Israel’s Shin Bet internal security agency, “After at least two Israeli offensives on Gaza, the result is that it could not disarm Gaza on its own and should not. It will be a disaster if we attempt to disarm Hamas by ourselves.” He added his belief that Hamas is “stronger” than before. “The issue is complicated. We have to make a new political reality, otherwise Hamas is getting stronger.”

September 15, 2020 Posted by | Aletho News | , , | Leave a comment

COVID-19 predictions: “infectable subgroup” hypothesis

By Mikhail V. Blagosklonny – Rapamycin Press – June 15, 2020

As an amateur in virology, I present preliminary “infectable subgroup” hypothesis to explain:

  1. Why COVID-19 epidemic flattened in all countries even with poor mitigation measures
  2. Why new cases spike only in some (but not all) counties and US states since reopening
  3. Why epidemiologic prognoses failed

In existing epidemiological models (unless I am mistaken), chances to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus depend only on mitigation measures, such as social distancing. Biologically all people are equal.

Consider in contrast that there are subgroups of highly-infectable (< 20%) and low-infectable people. During epidemic, most highly-infectable people become infected and the curve flattens earlier than models predict (when just a few % of population get infected). When such places re-opened there will be no spike. Spikes will be observed only in places/states that did not flatten the curve yet. In former hot spots, cases will continue decreasing upon reopening.

Noteworthy, on the ships, most people (low-infectable group) do not become sick regardless of how long they stay together.

Low-infectable person does not get infected (and will not develop antibody either), when exposed to the virus.

The hypothesis also explains why it is more difficult to contain the spread, when just a few cases occur, than to flatten the curve at the peak of cases: All higly-infectable people have been already infected.

What determines infectable phenotype? Unlike COVID-19 vulnerability (mortality rate), infectability does not depend much on age, age-related diseases and gender. So we do not know.

There must be a biological component, including polymorphism.

Before the mutation had occurred in the bat virus, all people were non-infectable. Mutation rendered people infectable, but not necessarily all people. There is polymorphism of receptors, enzymes and so on. Also non-genetic factors such as diet, etc. may contribute to the infectable phenotype. Behavioral factors (low vs high social behavior) are extrinsic factors of infectability. Family clusters of COVID-19 suggest genetic factors.

Predictions:

  1. There will not be drastic spikes in former hot spots such as some parts of New York upon re-opening.
  2. There will be no second wave in the Fall, unless the virus mutates once again to make non-infecatble people infectable. There may be new hot spots in previously unaffected places, but this is all first wave.

Further directions: What are the markers and mechanisms of non-infectability?

September 15, 2020 Posted by | Aletho News | | Leave a comment

Russia blasts US’ Indo-Pacific strategy

By M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | Indian Punchline | September 12, 2020

The meeting between the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Moscow on September 11 took place at a particularly delicate juncture in regional politics. Russia is carefully ploughing a neutral line in the India-China standoff while also drawing closer to China to push back at US pressure.

The US policies are prompting Russia and China to further enhance their “comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era.” Summing up his meeting with Wang, Lavrov said the talks were held in “an atmosphere of mutual respect and trust and were very substantial.” He added, “We discussed the key international problems and reaffirmed the closeness of our views on effective solutions to them…We agreed to carry on our close collaboration.”

Significantly, the most striking part of Lavrov’s remarks pertained to the Asia-Pacific region. Lavrov frontally attacked the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy: “We (Russia and China) noted the destructive character of Washington’s actions that undermine global strategic stability. They are fuelling tensions in various parts of the world, including along the Russian and Chinese borders. Of course, we are worried about this and object to these attempts to escalate artificial tensions. In this context, we stated that the so-called “Indo-Pacific strategy” as it was planned by the initiators, only leads to the separation of the region’s states, and is therefore fraught with serious consequences for peace, security and stability in the Asia-Pacific Region.

“We spoke in favour of the ASEAN-centric regional security architecture with a view to promoting the unifying agenda, and the preservation of the consensus style of work and consensus-based decision-making in these mechanisms, as it has always been done in the framework of ASEAN and the associated entities. We are seeing attempts to split the ranks of ASEAN members with the same aims: to abandon consensus-based methods of work and fuel confrontation in this region that is common for all of us.”

The Chinese state media highlighted Lavrov’s remarks. Wang said in response that China-Russia relations have become “key forces of stability in a turbulent world.” He stressed that the China-Russia alliance has shown “strong resilience” against the backdrop of the “profound changes unseen in a century” in world politics.

The Lavrov-Wang meeting took place in the backdrop of the turmoil in Belarus, for which Russia has blamed the US. On the eve of the meeting in Moscow, a senior Russian lawmaker openly alleged that the US has a master plan to create political tensions within Russia, where regional elections are due to take place on Sept 13. Social media and the Internet, once again, are playing a major role in orchestrating the protests in Belarus.

Interestingly, during the meeting with Lavrov, Wang also called for “further Russia-China cooperation in the area of international information security, against the backdrop that some countries are politicising information technology and cyber security and containing other countries under the pretext of safeguarding its own national security.”

Lavrov’s remarks on Indo-Pacific strategy coincided with the 53rd Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and related meetings (including the 10th East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers’ Meeting) in Hanoi on Sept 8-11. The ASEAN faces growing pressure from the US to join hands with it against China, but has refused to take sides. The joint communique adopted at the meeting in Hanoi reflects this stance.

Last week, Reuters quoted Indonesia’s foreign minister Retno Marsudi as saying that ASEAN must remain steadfastly neutral and united. “ASEAN, Indonesia, wants to show to all that we are ready to be a partner,” said Retno. “We don’t want to get trapped by this rivalry.” Indonesia’s stance becomes important at a time when the US is attempting to split the ASEAN consensus on neutrality by playing on the interests of individual member countries.

The US is pinning hopes that some ASEAN countries may be in a quandary about how to balance ties to get the best out of both of the big players, while some others may feel tempted to use the US-China rivalry as an opportunity to extract leverage for economic or military advantage. Retno alluded to it when she told Reuters, “(ASEAN has) a good culture, but we have to nurture it. We can’t take it for granted that these values will live forever.”

Significantly, Vietnam and Indonesia, two influential ASEAN countries, are also Russia’s major partners. Lavrov’s remarks, therefore, can be seen as signifying a new level of commitment in Russia’s engagement with the Asia-Pacific, while also reinforcing the partnership with China, and going beyond a mere reflexive response to events (principally, the current crisis in Russia’s relations with the West.)

It is interesting that Moscow is unequivocal in subscribing to the description “Asia-Pacific region” and has no truck with the concept of “Indo-Pacific”, which Lavrov derisively regarded as a politically loaded term. Arguably, Indo-Pacific would be somewhat misleading also in the context of Russian policy. Russia is far more interested in the Asia-Pacific than it is in the Indian Ocean or the Indian subcontinent — considering its engagement with not only China but also with Japan, the two Koreas, the US (as a Pacific power) and with the security of the Far East.

Of course, India figures in the larger geopolitical context, but in the Russian perception, India remains a supernumerary member of the Asia-Pacific community. Where Russia has a difference of opinion with India is in its perception of the American security presence in Asia-Pacific as of an extra-regional power who is intrusive and increasingly destabilising.

Fundamentally, Russia approaches the Asia-Pacific from a global perspective whereas India’s vision narrows down to concerns over rising China. From the Russian perspective, Asia-Pacific is a theatre central to the world order in the 21st century where intense geopolitical struggles are erupting, where a battle of ideas, norms and institutions is already under way. Being a resurgent global power, Russia is obliged to position itself at the centre stage in the region.

Indeed, Beijing is well aware of the shift in the ASEAN regional attitudes towards Russia in the recent years. Unlike in the Soviet era, no ASEAN country (Philippines included) tends to identify Russia as a threat or a malign actor anymore. On the other hand, Russia’s relations with nearly all ASEAN states are comfortable. Thus, a more active Russian involvement in Asia-Pacific affairs works well for China.

Simply put, it suits Moscow and Beijing to make common cause in the Asia-Pacific when their respective relations with the US are so difficult, and when both have come under heavy US pressure. It won’t come as a surprise to see a surge in Russian diplomatic efforts in the period ahead to expand relations across the ASEAN region.

September 12, 2020 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , , | Leave a comment

FBI says reports of Antifa arson in Oregon are ‘Conspiracy Theories,’ but someone is starting fires

RT | September 12, 2020

As wildfires burn throughout Oregon and close in on Portland, a number of arrests and reports suggest that some of these fires may have been started intentionally. The FBI has dismissed reports of arson as “conspiracy theories.”

Multiple wildfires are ripping through Oregon, with local media reporting seven dead as of Friday. Governor Kate Brown has evacuated more than 40,000 people, and the state’s emergency management director, Andrew Phelps, said on Friday that authorities are preparing for a “mass fatality event.”

Phelps also warned that the fires are “knocking on the doorstep” of Portland. With the sky over the city blotted out by ash and smoke, Mayor Ted Wheeler declared a state of emergency on Thursday night.

Portland has been an epicenter of ‘Black Lives Matter’ and antifa riots since May, and rumors circulating online have accused some of these activists of starting the fires intentionally. The FBI attempted to squash these rumors on Friday, declaring them “conspiracy theories and misinformation,” and urging citizens to only share “validated information from official sources.”

However, reports of arson have not come solely from anonymous Twitter accounts and conspiracy cranks. Hours after the FBI’s tweet was posted, the Multnomah County Sheriff’s Office announced that deputies had discovered spent fireworks next to a bush fire in Corbett, a few minutes’ drive from Portland.

Multiple suspects have been arrested and charged with arson within the city itself, with the arrestees usually linked to the ongoing protests and riots. Previously, Molotov cocktails have been thrown at police officers, buildings set on fire, and powerful fireworks launched at federal agents protecting the city’s Justice Center and courthouse.

However, law enforcement officers have caught several arsonists outside Portland too. A man was charged on Friday with multiple counts of arson after allegedly setting a wildfire near Phoenix in southern Oregon on Tuesday. Officers arresting the man found him standing near a large blaze that was threatening several houses, and discovered two ounces of methamphetamine on his person. His political leanings are unknown.

In central Oregon, a 44-year-old man was arrested on Tuesday on suspicion of arson, with deputies accusing him of torching nearly 400 acres of land west of the city of Eugene.

While law enforcement officials say they’ve been flooded with false calls blaming the fires on Antifa arsonists, a fire that began in Ashland is under criminal investigation after human remains were found at its origin point. The fire quickly spread, and merged with the same blaze that the alleged Phoenix arsonist was arrested and charged for starting.

Further north in Washington state, a man was charged on Friday with starting a fire alongside a rural highway two days earlier. The suspect, identified as 36-year-old Jeffrey Acord, live-streamed his arrest on Facebook, but denied starting the fire. Acord had professed support for Black Lives Matter on Facebook, and had previously been arrested with a cache of weapons at a protest in Seattle in 2014.

It is not known, however, if his alleged fire-starting on Wednesday was politically motivated.

September 12, 2020 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

Iran, China, Russia to partake in Caucus 2020 military drills

Press TV – September 10, 2020

Military forces from Iran, China, and Russia are scheduled to take part in joint military exercises with a number of other countries in southern Russia later this month.

China’s Defense Ministry made the announcement in a news release on Thursday and said troops from Armenia, Belarus, Myanmar, and Pakistan would also participate in the drills, code-named “Caucus 2020.”

The ministry added that the exercises, to be held from September 21 to 26, would focus on defensive tactics, encirclement, and battlefield control and command.

The drills have special significance “at this important moment when the entire world is fighting the pandemic,” the ministry said.

The United States administration has insinuated that the coronavirus was artificially developed in a Chinese lab. China has rejected that insinuation.

Iran, China, and Russia have over the past years increased their military and diplomatic cooperation to counter the United States’ hostile policies and extra-territorial presence in their regions.

Late last year, the three countries held four days of naval exercises code-named the “Marine Security Belt” to promote regional security and peace and safeguard international trade in the Sea of Oman and the Indian Ocean.

September 10, 2020 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

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