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US will spend on Ukraine more than it did on Marshall Plan after WWII

By Ahmed Adel | August 1, 2023

John Sopko, Inspector General of the United States Reconstruction Service in Afghanistan, said that the amount of money the US will spend by the end of 2023 will surpass the money spent on the entire Marshall Plan. He also highlighted how Ukraine is a country that is almost just as corrupt as Afghanistan.

“We are spending more money in Ukraine now in one year than we spent in about 12 years in Afghanistan, and by the end of this year, we will spend more money in Ukraine than we did to do the entire Marshall Plan after World War Two,” he warned, emphasising that he supported financial aid, but felt the need to make sure it was done “correctly and under supervision.”

Among the problems identified by Sopko when overseeing the cost of rebuilding Afghanistan was the lack of coordination of these efforts and a lack of understanding of the ultimate goal. He highlights that in the case of Ukraine, the situation is even more complicated as more parties are involved, such as US agencies and international donors and organisations. In addition, the expert also noted that both Afghanistan and Ukraine are deeply corrupt.

Most alarming, though, for US taxpayers is that Sopko revealed that Washington spends about $2.5 billion monthly on security assistance to Ukraine. In comparison, Washington only spent about $375 million monthly on security assistance to Afghanistan. Since February 2022, the Biden administration has committed more than $75 billion in various types of assistance to Ukraine, with nearly $50 billion spent on weapons and related military equipment.

Biden’s astronomical total spending in Ukraine will only significantly increase when considering that in July alone, the Ukrainian military lost 20,824 troops and 2,227 units of various weapons, including 10 Leopard tanks, 11 Bradley armoured vehicles and dozens of artillery pieces from the United Kingdom, United States, Germany, France, and Poland.

“It is obvious that the Western-manufactured arms supplies do not lead to successes on the battlefield, but only prolong the military conflict,” the Russian Ministry of Defence said in an announcement on July 31, adding that “against the backdrop of the failed so-called ‘counteroffensive,’ the Kiev regime, with the support of Western sponsors, has focused on carrying out terrorist attacks on civilian infrastructure in cities and towns in the Russian Federation.”

Seeing as the counteroffensive has been an utter and humiliating failure for Ukraine and its Western patrons, the Kiev regime has resorted to terrorist tactics against Russia, knowing well that such attacks only hurt citizens and do nothing to strengthen Ukraine’s war effort or deter the Russian military operation.

On the morning of August 1, Mayor of Moscow Sergey Sobyanin announced that Russian air defences shot down “several” drones targeting the Moscow region. This attack marks at least the fifth time drones have reached the Russian capital since May. Thankfully for the citizens of Moscow, two drones were destroyed by air defence systems and a third was jammed and crashed, resulting in no deaths or injuries.

In an attempt to show strength, but instead ended up revealing the truth about the desperate situation Kiev finds itself in despite having more money pumped in a year than 12 years in Afghanistan, Ukrainian president Volodymr Zelensky said on July 30 in his nightly address that the war was coming to Russia, i.e., terrorist attacks.

“Gradually, the war is returning to the territory of Russia – to its symbolic centres and military bases. This is an inevitable, natural, and absolutely fair process,” Zelensky said.

The wording of Zelensky’s announcement suggests that Ukraine is about to embark on a game-changing phase of the war. Instead, Ukraine will only conjure inconveniences for the Russian state and, sadly, some deaths and injuries to citizens. However, it will certainly not be anything that will swing the war in Ukraine’s favour.

Ukraine will likely lose significant drone capabilities as this will become a priority for Russia if terrorist attacks continue in such a manner. In fact, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced on July 31 that an assembly plant for drones in the Kharkov region intended for Ukrainian troops was destroyed.

At the same time, the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine and the Baykar Makina Turkish company recently announced that they agreed to build a repair and maintenance service centre for drones. The agreement to create a service centre for Turkish drones was signed within the framework of the intergovernmental agreement between Ukraine and Turkey about cooperation in the hi-tech, aircraft and space industries sector, which came into force in January 2023.

With Russia already demonstrating its willingness to destroy drone plants, there is little reason why the new Bayraktar centre in Ukraine will not be targeted if the Turkish drones are the reason for Russian deaths.

Nonetheless, despite Zelensky’s promise of bringing the war to Russia, terror attacks on Moscow will not deter the special military operation but will significantly weaken Ukraine’s drone capabilities as its destruction becomes a priority. Ukraine is already a financial blackhole for the West, as seen by the vast resources poured into the country, and the destruction of Ukraine’s drone capability will only add to its misery.

Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

August 1, 2023 Posted by | Economics, Militarism | , | Leave a comment

UAE, Bahrain sour on Israeli normalization

The Cradle | July 31, 2023

Two of the signatories of the Abraham Accords – the UAE and Bahrain – have “soured” on the 2020 normalization agreement, according to sources in the know who spoke with US outlet Bloomberg.

“The [UAE] has expressed frustration in high-level contacts with Israel about the outcome of the 2020 Abraham Accords,” Bloomberg reported on 30 July. Bahrain has also “outlined its disappointment” with Tel Aviv, mainly out of concerns about Israel’s ongoing human rights violations against Palestinians and their unchecked expansion of illegal settlements in the West Bank.

According to the report, the tense situation is “likely to complicate” Washington’s efforts to see Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords, which also include Morocco and Sudan.

In the months after the Gulf kingdom inked a historic rapprochement deal with Iran under the auspices of China, the White House has deployed a charm offensive to convince Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) to normalize ties with Israel before the 2024 US elections.

Publicly, Saudi Arabia maintains Israel must first implement the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative to establish a Palestinian state before a normalization deal can be signed. Privately, however, Riyadh is demanding that the US sweeten the deal by providing firm defense guarantees, access to cutting-edge weaponry, and assistance in developing a nuclear energy program, including domestic uranium enrichment.

While the White House remains hesitant to accept these demands, US President Joe Biden told a gathering of donors to his 2024 re-election campaign last week, “There’s a rapprochement maybe underway.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed this claim on Sunday when announcing the construction of a $27 billion rail expansion connecting Israel’s outlying areas to metropolitan Tel Aviv.

“In the future, we will be able to transport cargoes of goods by train from Eilat to our ports in the Mediterranean Sea, and we will also be able to connect Israel by train to Saudi Arabia and the Arabian Peninsula. We are working on that too,” Netanyahu said.

Earlier this month, Yedioth Ahronoth reported that Washington was promoting a plan to build a railway connection from the Gulf to Israel and Europe.

July 31, 2023 Posted by | Economics, Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Calls to ban Russian aluminum ‘expose EU market manipulation’ – industry association

RT | July 31, 2023

Five EU-based business associations representing aluminum consumers have called on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to reject demands for sanctions on Russian primary metal, describing the pressure as “obvious market manipulations,” according to a statement by the Federation of Aluminium Consumers in Europe (FACE) released on Friday.

Last week, Norwegian producer Norsk Hydro urged the LME, the world’s largest and oldest market for industrial metals, to reconsider a decision made in March not to ban Russian aluminum from its warehouse network. Norsk Hydro argued that Russian aluminum, which is subject to US sanctions, dominates the LME warehouse stock and poses risks to the market.

According to the letter sent to the LME on Friday by the Belgium-based FACE along with four associations from Germany and Italy, the calls to ban Russian aluminum are “obvious market manipulations by vested interests,” as they were made by major metal producers who are direct competitors of Russian manufacturer Rusal.

Such a ban would be “suicidal” in the current context of the “huge metal deficit” in Europe, high energy prices, and inflation, the FACE statement claimed.

Calls for sanctions “seem one more oligopolistic attempt to easily eliminate a competitor with non-market practices and to turn Europe into a captive market, with full knowledge of the devastating impact any restriction of Russian metal supplies will have on the EU aluminum industry value-chain”, said Mario Conserva, FACE’s secretary general.

He pointed out that small and medium-sized businesses represent 90% of the EU aluminum industry workforce and 70% of its output, but their interests are not taken into account when trade and supply policy decisions are made.

Earlier this month, Reuters reported that EU industry group European Aluminium had warned against placing sanctions on Rusal “due to its strategic importance on the global aluminum market.”

According to FACE, the EU is dependent on other countries for nearly 90% of its primary aluminum needs. Rusal accounts for about 12% of the bloc’s current demand, the association said. The industry body described Rusal’s output as competitive and fairly priced, and claimed that it helps decrease the carbon footprint of the entire European aluminum industry.

The Russian aluminum industry has increasingly become a target for Western restrictions. In February, the US imposed 200% duties on imports of Russian-made aluminum products, while the following month Canada banned imports of Russian aluminum and steel. In May, the UK also revealed plans to ban imports of Russian aluminum. The EU has so far restricted imports of only a limited number of specific aluminum products from Russia.

July 31, 2023 Posted by | Economics, Russophobia | , | Leave a comment

UK businesses ignoring anti-Russia sanctions

RT | July 31, 2023

British manufacturers have been supplying Russia with key industrial equipment despite Western sanctions, The Times reported on Monday, citing statistics from investigative group Data Desk.

The outlet’s analysis of trade data showed that despite the British government’s claims to have implemented the “most severe economic sanctions ever imposed on a major economy,” UK companies have still been permitted to export equipment important for Russia’s fuel and mining industries.

Export data showed that a subsidiary of construction company Hill & Smith continues to supply pipes that are installed on gas pipelines in Russia. Hill & Smith said last year it had “no direct customers or suppliers” in Russia, the report noted.

Many other companies based in the UK are also allowed to supply Russia with equipment for key areas of the mineral extraction industry, The Times wrote.

Following the start of the conflict in Ukraine, the UK stepped up sanctions against Russia, banning new investment in the country and restricting imports of Russian oil, coal, and gold, and exports of key industrial goods, among other measures. London has also frozen £26 billion ($33.4 billion) in assets and reserves belonging to the Russian state since the beginning of the conflict, according to the Bank of Russia.

July 31, 2023 Posted by | Economics | , | Leave a comment

Russia has won the oil war

The West doesn’t seem too keen to enforce its $60 price cap on Russian crude

BY PÉTER G. FEHÉR | MAGYAR HÍRLAP | JULY 31, 2023

Moscow’s leadership may not have been cheering loudly, but they probably still celebrated quietly within the walls of the Kremlin. After all, Russia has won the oil war. The news has been widely reported among economists and even in Western press, but it cannot be said to have come as a surprise shock. Those involved in the global oil business knew that they could not win such a war against Russia.

The United States and the European Commission’s measures to reduce Russian energy exports aimed to produce problems for the Russian treasury by reducing its revenues. However, it seems that the punitive measures introduced without any impact assessment have been seriously misguided, especially on the part of the EU. Rather, the EU has punished itself by foregoing cheap Russian gas and being forced to buy expensive U.S. natural gas.

Strange as it may sound, the Brussels officials knew exactly that this would be the consequence of the sanctions they imposed. It is worth looking to Russia expert Christopher Davis, professor at Oxford University: Davis has claimed nothing less than that the European Commission only began to address the impact of the punitive measures after the sanctions against Russia were introduced. At that time, it produced a secret study that was not shared with EU citizens. It said that the decisions were taken too quickly and that they were taken under political pressure without any prior economic impact assessment. The EU thus did not look into the potential impacts of sanctions; it was in essence an abrupt and thoughtless decision.

Moscow, meanwhile, looked for other buyers of its black gold, which was also predictable, and China was one of the first to come forward. Moscow has now built infrastructure to handle the increased traffic between Russia and Asia. Before the war in Ukraine, China was buying 1.5 million barrels of oil a day from Russia. Today, it takes in 2.5 million barrels a day.

Now, publications such as the Wall Street Journal are acknowledging that Russia has achieved a real global victory in the oil wars. The price of the Russian Ural blend oil has for the first time exceeded the $60 cap per barrel imposed by the U.S. and its allies last December. Although this happened just last Thursday, there is no sign that anyone is willing to enforce the sanction.

It is now no longer a mere assumption that the EU and the U.S. have made spontaneous sanctions decisions against Russia with unforeseen consequences. It is understandable that the European Commission does not want to publicly admit the consequences of such clumsy measures.

The question has to be asked again, for the umpteenth time: Why are there no consequences for a disastrous decision taken by the European Commission that once again went over the heads of the member states without even consulting them?

REMIX NEWS:

***

July 31, 2023 Posted by | Economics, Russophobia, Video | , , , | Leave a comment

Qatar to provide Ukraine $100mln as war profits soar

The Cradle | July 29, 2023

Qatar will provide Ukraine with $100 million in humanitarian aid, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on 28 July following the visit of Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani to Kiev.

“This money will be channeled for reconstruction in the health and education sectors, humanitarian de-mining, and other important social and humanitarian projects,” Shmyhal told a briefing.

Sheikh Mohammad also met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss global food security and the expired Black Sea grain deal in his first visit to Ukraine since the start of the war with Russia last year.

“We appreciate this visit and consider it an important manifestation of Qatar’s support and solidarity with our country. We are sincerely grateful for all the assistance received from Qatar,” Zelensky said.

The grain deal, brokered by Turkiye and the UN in July 2022, ensured that Ukrainian grain could still be exported from its southern Black Sea ports, despite the fighting and that Russian grain and fertilizers could still be exported despite western-imposed sanctions.

The deal came amid fears that a disruption in Russian and Ukrainian grain exports would cause price increases in world food markets, leading to humanitarian disasters in poor countries.

Russia withdrew from the agreement on July 17, claiming Ukraine and the UN had not lived up to their end of the deal.

Sheikh Mohammad and Zelensky’s talks also focused on the Ukrainian Peace Formula and the Ukraine Recovery Plan. Zelensky emphasized the opportunities for Qatari investment funds and business circles to participate in Ukrainian reconstruction, according to the Office of the Presidency of Ukraine.

Qatar has benefited significantly from the war in Ukraine. US and EU sanctions cut off Russian natural gas supplies to Europe, causing prices to skyrocket and allowing Qatar to emerge as an important alternative natural gas supplier.

In late November, QatarEnergy and ConocoPhillips signed agreements to export 2 million tons of liquified natural gas yearly to Germany for at least 15 years, starting in 2026.

Europe’s newfound need for Qatari liquefied natural gas comes after Qatar started a $30 billion project to boost its exports by 60 percent by 2027.

Before the start of the Ukraine war, some analysts doubted there would be enough natural gas demand to justify the expansion plan, Bloomberg noted.

July 29, 2023 Posted by | Economics, Militarism | , , , , | Leave a comment

US warns allies of potential isolation from deals over links to Iran, Russia

Brian Nelson, U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence
Press TV – July 29, 2023

The administration of US President Joe Biden has warned that Washington’s allies will face a “reputation risk” and potential isolation from lucrative deals in case of having links to the Islamic Republic of Iran and Russia.

Brian Nelson, the Treasury’s undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, raised the alarm in a meeting with Kenya’s President William Ruto on Friday.

He claimed that Iran and Russia were “isolated economically.”

“What we see is again of course Iran and Russia are isolated economically and either they are looking for partners and they are looking for new channels to have economic relationships,” Nelson claimed.

“From our perspective, that potentially creates a reputation risk and creates also a financial risk such that we are having a direct conversation about those risks that are associated with the expansion of economic relationship, which is a conversation not only are we having here but with countries around the world and we know that clearly is what Russia and Iran are seeking,” he added.

In what is construed as Washington’s direct interference in its allies’ affairs, Nelson warned them to be wary of the two countries’ economic reputation.

The warning comes as Iranian President Ebrahim Raeisi embarked on an African tour earlier in the month, which took him to Kenya, Uganda and Zimbabwe at the official invitation of his counterparts from the three host countries.

Heading a high-ranking delegation, Raeisi forged new alliances and discussed possible avenues for the improvement of trade and political ties.

Raeisi stressed the need for enhancing relations with African countries, saying that the states are gifted with abundant natural resources and mines, and enjoy many potentials and areas for closer cooperation.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kana’ani described Raeisi’s continental tour as “a new turning point” which could bolster economic and trade ties with African nations.

A total of 21 documents on cooperation in different areas were signed during the three-state tour to Africa.

July 29, 2023 Posted by | Economics, Russophobia, Wars for Israel | , , , | Leave a comment

Putin suggests alternative route to deliver goods to Africa

RT | July 27, 2023

The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) could provide Russian goods with a shorter route to Africa than the Suez Canal, President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday.

Addressing a plenary session of the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, Putin explained that Moscow is “actively engaged in reorienting transport and cargo flows towards the states of the Global South, including, of course, Africa.”

The INSTC, touted as an alternative to the Suez Canal, is a planned 7,200km multi-mode transit system that will connect ship, rail, and road routes for moving cargo between Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, India, and Central Asia.

“The International North-South Transport Corridor that we are developing is aimed at providing Russian goods with access to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, from where they will be able to reach the African continent via the shortest sea route. Naturally, this corridor can also be used in the opposite direction – to supply African goods to the Russian market,” Putin stated.

Russia is seeking to ensure interconnectivity within the route and launch regular freight shipping lines, according to Putin. The volume of goods shipped via the INSTC is expected to almost triple over the next seven years, and the Russian leader suggested establishing a logistics hub for the corridor on the African coast.

“The opening of a Russian transport and logistics center in one of the ports on the African coast would be a good thing, a good start to this joint work. We consider it important to ensure wider coverage of the African continent with direct flights [and] participation in the development of the African railroad network – these are the key tasks that we propose to our African friends to work together on,” Putin said.

Russia has repeatedly said that the INSTC could become a substitute for the Suez Canal, the 193km waterway in Egypt that connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea. The popular route between Europe and Asia sees about 12% of global trade pass through it each day.

The construction of the INSTC began in the early 2000s, but developing it further has taken on a new impetus in light of Western sanctions, which have forced Russia to shift its trade flows from Europe to Asia and the Middle East.

The total cargo flow along the INSTC was 14.5 million tons in 2022, and the projection for this year is 17.6 million tons, according to Russia’s Transport Ministry. By 2030, the volume is expected to reach 41 million tons.

July 27, 2023 Posted by | Economics | , , | Leave a comment

German deindustrialization continues unabated due to Berlin’s suicidal energy policies

By Drago Bosnic | July 26, 2023

For close to a year and a half, the German economy has been going through a sort of unraveling, primarily due to suicidal subservience to its masters in Washington DC. Since the start of Russia’s counteroffensive against NATO aggression in Europe, Berlin has been experiencing a plethora of major economic problems that soon translated to societal and political ones, causing further instability in the country. In turn, this has started causing issues with investments and the overall business climate in Germany, as relevant people and companies started losing confidence in Berlin’s capacity to keep its economy stable.

“The German economy is losing its DNA as a place to do business and foreign investors are keeping their distance, instead focusing their attention on developing markets as a result,” Toralf Haag, the CEO of German Voith Group, warned.

Haag, the head of the German technology company, gave an interview to Die Welt, in which he discussed the rapidly emerging economic problems affecting Germany. He told the newspaper that his Voith Group has been able to weather the storm so far and protect itself from the recession the German economy has been in since the last quarter. However, Haag also expressed worry regarding the German economy’s future, specifically in terms of competitiveness, energy security and foreign investment. He complained about “Germany’s aggressive energy transition away from traditional energy production such as coal and nuclear to renewables”, calling it “problematic”.

“There are ambitious goals, but only insufficient incentives and support to be able to achieve these goals. What we need is less bureaucracy, faster approval procedures and faster implementation. The way it is currently running, it will not work in the long run,” Haag stated.

When asked about the current state of business and investment opportunities in Germany, he wasn’t very optimistic, not only about the prospects for his company (based in Heidenheim, operating primarily in energy, automotive and paper industries), but the overall situation.

“Investment decisions in Germany are becoming increasingly difficult,” Haag said, adding: “To be honest, at the moment we tend to choose Eastern Europe, Asia or the USA when it comes to new production facilities because the costs for energy and personnel are particularly high in Germany while at the same time bureaucracy and regulation are increasing.”

He lamented that the Voith Group was forced to hire another 30 people in the management in the last year or two just to be able to handle all the new regulations and obligations introduced due to the ever-growing red tape.

“I would like to invite the employees from the ministries to check what effect their specifications have directly inside a company – whether they are practicable and sensible. In order for Voith to make significant investments in Germany again, the framework conditions must change fundamentally. Unfortunately, I don’t see that at the moment,” Haag stated.

He said that the danger of Germany’s further deindustrialization is “very great”, primarily because of the reduction of industrial activity due to the tendency of many German companies to relocate to other countries.

“We now see almost every day that industrial companies are no longer investing in Germany but in other regions of the world. Administration and engineering may remain in Germany, but production, which is particularly valuable for an economy, is increasingly taking place elsewhere,” Haag complained, further adding: “As a result, the German economy is not only losing its DNA but also any potential for the future. With its well-paid jobs, industry is the guarantor of prosperity. The prosperity achieved so far cannot be maintained with administrative jobs and the service sector alone.”

Indeed, Germany’s deindustrialization is an ongoing process that is virtually irreversible at this point. Haag’s concerns are backed by the official data and statistics on the actual state of Germany’s economy, particularly its industrial capacity. German industry has always been the main driving force of its economy, particularly its automotive and high-tech industries, all of which are highly dependent on stable energy supplies. However, while Haag blamed the obsessive transition to alternative energy sources (particularly renewables) for the major issues Germany is experiencing, he failed to mention Berlin’s subservience to Washington DC and the resulting halt in Russian energy imports.

The results have been catastrophic, to say the least. Last week’s survey by the BVMW (Federal Association of Medium-Sized Businesses) showed that over a quarter (26%) of all CEOs of medium-sized German companies are considering shutting down their businesses, while over a fifth (22%) have expressed readiness to move their companies abroad. The reasons cited for such decisions were largely the same as those mentioned by the Voith Group’s CEO. As a result, the country’s industrial output experienced a dramatic plunge in the first quarter, including a drop of nearly 11% in March alone, the largest monthly reduction in years. In addition, the growing inflation (currently standing at 6.8%) is exacerbating the problem.

By February this year, Germany has experienced a “price shock” of over 40% due to its anti-Russian sanctions policies, in what can only be described as perhaps the worst case of a boomerang effect in the history of Western sanctions warfare against the world. Russian energy imports were probably the best possible energy source for Germany, particularly as Berlin was trying to increase the share of renewables in its energy production. These imports made it possible to rely on natural gas as a relatively clean source, while renewables played an auxiliary role. However, with the suicidal anti-Russian sanctions in place, as well as the US terrorist attack on the Nord Stream pipelines, Germany’s energy security was gone virtually overnight.

Drago Bosnic is an independent geopolitical and military analyst.

July 26, 2023 Posted by | Economics | , | Leave a comment

Russian military experts on the current state of the war

By Gilbert Doctorow | July 25, 2023

There is a lot of cheerleading for Russian military successes on the Western alternative news portals. There is also a fair amount of cheerleading coming from front line Russian war correspondents on Russian state television. But, as I have indicated in past essays, the more serious Russian news programs such as Sixty Minutes and Evening with Vladimir Solovyov also give the microphone to military experts from among Duma committee chairmen and others who actually bear responsibility and accountability for the war effort and are not just talking heads. These speakers are much more restrained in their remarks on the war’s progress and I use this opportunity to share with readers what I hear from such sources. I will be drawing in particular on what was said on the Solovyov show two days ago.

The most sober remark was that it is a mistake to gloat over reports that the Ukrainians have run out of reserves and that their soldiers at the front are now just old men and youths, who are demoralized and surrendering to Russians when they can. Saying that is to diminish our respect for the heroism of Russian soldiers who are facing, in fact, peer equals in the Ukrainian forces. This is a tough war.

Moreover, the Ukrainian reserves are not yet exhausted. Out of the approximately 60,000 elite troops that received training in NATO countries only 30 – 40% were killed or wounded in the battle for Bakhmut and subsequent Ukrainian counter-attack after 4 June. The Russians will not begin their own massive offensive to knock out the Ukrainian military until they are confident that most of the Ukrainian reserves have been depleted in the ongoing war of attrition.

Accordingly, what we are witnessing these days is localized attacks that have tactical, not strategic importance. Yes, the Ukrainians make advances here and there of a few meters at great cost in lost lives of the soldiers. Yes, the Russians make advances of three or four kilometers here or there, at significantly lower cost.  The Russians are biding their time. This is not a stale-mate as Western media keep telling their audiences.

Now let us turn to another aspect of the conflict that has grabbed the news over the past week when ground skirmishes between the hostile forces moved to the back pages of our newspapers. I have in mind the spectacular Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odessa, in Nikolaev and yesterday in a river port of the Danube estuary just across from the Romanian border.  These attacks are described by official Russian military sources as “revenge attacks” for the damage inflicted on one of the roadways of the Crimean bridge by Ukrainian surface drones that exploded under bridge supports.

Of course, that is just Public Relations talk to satisfy the Russian public and overwhelm local outrage at the failure to defend what is, finally, vulnerable infrastructure. No, the reason for the Russian destruction of the Ukrainian port facilities day after day lies elsewhere. The missile strikes were not so much intended to inflict pain on the Ukrainians as to avert what could be naval battles on the Black Sea and a quantum jump in risks of total war. And, en passant, they demonstrated that the latest sea-launched Russian cruise missiles with 3,000 km range that fly just 15 meters above the sea at Mach 3 cannot be intercepted by present Ukrainian air defenses.

Let us remember that when Vladimir Putin announced that the grain deal with Turkey and the United Nations would expire on 18 July, the RF Ministry of Defense announced that any vessels headed towards Ukrainian ports ostensibly to receive export grain would henceforth be considered as carriers of arms to Ukraine and were fair game for destruction by Russian forces.

Immediately after this Ukrainian President Zelensky went on air with his proposal to Turkey that the grain exports by sea continue without Russian participation. The safety of the vessels would be assured by Turkish and other NATO naval convoys.  In the context of Erdogan’s latest turn to the U.S. and away from Russia, it appeared that Ankara was prepared to strike a deal with Zelensky.  If that were done, then the chances of naval battles between Russian and NATO vessels in the Black Sea would have soared.

And so the Russians decided to destroy the Ukrainian port facilities active in the grain trade and so to preempt the dangers in view. Erdogan was compelled to draw back from any agreement with Zelensky on resumption of the grain corridor mission.

To be sure, export of grain by ship is the cheapest solution to bringing Ukrainian grain to world markets. But there are other means, namely by rail and truck, traveling north and west across Bulgaria or Romania or Poland. These logistics were used last autumn to move a lot of grain, but that grain tended to disappear into the nominal transit countries where it provoked outrage among the farming communities of these countries for underpricing their own grain crops.  We may expect more of this political turmoil in Eastern Europe and protests against Ukraine in the coming months, and this also will serve the Russian objective of making Europe pay for its support of Kiev.

The U.S. State Department representatives have shrieked over the humanitarian disaster that the Russians were causing first by pulling out of the grain deal and then by destroying Ukraine’s export infrastructure in the Black Sea. Particular attention has been directed at the nations of Africa which purportedly represent a large proportion of the poor destination countries for Ukrainian grain.

It is interesting to note that notwithstanding vicious American propaganda against the Russian pull-out from the grain deal, the leaders of Africa have not gone for the bait.  Today 47 African leaders are assembling in Russia for highest level strategic talks and deal-making with their Russian counterparts. The Russians are offering free of cost grain to the poorest countries and contracts for grain supply to the others at normal commercial terms. The certainty of supply is assured by what the Russians say will be their biggest grain harvest ever during this season.

Though I denounce the U.S. State Department policies under Antony Blinken as a force for evil in the present world context, I do not mean to say that each and every player there is a villain. I am amused to see on Russian television images of the speeches to the United Nations about the grain corridor delivered by Rosemary Di Carlo, a former U.S. career diplomat who since 2018 has served in the UN as Under-Secretary General for Political and Peace-building Affairs.

Once upon a time, in 1998, I had conversations with Rosemary when she was in charge of cultural affairs at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow. We sat together at the head table of a gathering of American graduate students and professors on the academic exchange with Russia directed by a Cold War holdover NGO, IREX, for which I was briefly country manager back then. Rosemary talked about the theater season in Moscow and we discussed possibilities for assisting Russian museums and other cultural institutions to adapt to the post-Soviet realities of low government funding and finding private sponsors. She held a Ph.D. in Slavic literature. She was one of the relatively few career diplomats who actually understood and spoke Russian. Her heart was in the right place and I very much doubt that she is working to do the Russians a bad turn today.

Moral of the story above from start to finish: very often things are not what they seem.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023

July 25, 2023 Posted by | Economics | , , | Leave a comment

Grain Deal Replacement? Russia to Offer Africa New Food Security Plan

By Ilya Tsukanov – Sputnik – 25.07.2023

The second Russia-Africa Summit and Russia-Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum will take place in St. Petersburg on July 27-28, with President Putin expected to meet with the leaders and representatives of 49 different African countries which have confirmed plans to take part.

Russia will be offering African countries an alternative to the defunct Black Sea Grain Deal to ensure the continent’s continued food security, Russian Foreign Ministry ambassador-at-large Oleg Ozerov has said.

“Of course, it will be not only a discussion as such, but the discussion with solutions for African nations so that they leave St. Petersburg with clear understanding how these issues will be resolved,” the Russian diplomat, who heads the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum, told Sputnik.

Russia has already provided assistance to some African countries earlier, including gratis fertilizer shipments to countries including Malawi and Kenya, Ozerov added.

Moscow suspended its participation in the Black Sea grain deal last week, citing Western countries’ failure to facilitate Russian food and fertilizer exports, and pointing out that just 3 percent of the grain shipped out of Ukraine under the agreement actually went to countries in need in Africa and Asia, with the vast majority instead ending up in Europe and Turkiye.

Failure to Bully Africa Into Submission

Western powers have failed to bully African countries into submission and to persuade them not to attend the upcoming summit in St. Petersburg, Ozerov said.

“Pressure is being exerted. It is of a permanent character. This pressure was exerted through various channels – through the diplomatic corps of Western nations, which literally on a daily basis are trying to dissuade representatives of African states from traveling to Russia, and which demand that African countries firmly pick a camp,” Ozerov said.

The West’s demands look “very strange,” the diplomat said, as they’re coming “from those countries which publicly proclaim democracy and freedom of choice, but in practice demand submission to their dictates.”

There are also other forms of pressure besides politics and diplomacy, the ambassador-at-large said, including economic and financial coercion, with “political conditions put in place for the provision of economic assistance to a number of states both through the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, where the United States uses its dominant position to put forward political conditions.”

Similar conditionalities are being set up by the European Union, “when the allocation of loans is conditioned on the termination of contacts with the Russian side, or their reduction to a minimum, the non-attendance of a summit or the non-participation in [other] events,” Ozerov said.

Nevertheless, the diplomat stressed that Russia has not seen “African states following this dictate en masse.”

“It’s now obvious that the Western bloc cannot bend all other countries to its will, for objective reasons,” Ozerov said, likely alluding to the G7’s falling political and economic weight in the world as the BRICS countries slowly move the planet in the direction of genuine political and economic multipolarity.

Delegations from 49 of Africa’s 54 countries confirmed their plans to participate in the Russia-Africa Summit by last week, with about half being represented at the highest level – by heads of state or heads of government, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Ozerov indicated that Russian and African leaders will be adopting an overarching policy declaration, joint action plan, as well as three documents on sectoral cooperation at the summit, with the latter concerned with “the fight against terrorism, the non-deployment of weapons in space and international information security.”

The Russian Foreign Ministry expects that these document will become a platform for joint work with African countries on the creation of a new configuration of international relations, based on equality and a multipolar world rather than on a “unilateral dictatorship,” the diplomat noted.

Security Cooperation

In the security sphere, the Russian ambassador-at-large pointed out that Russia has no military presence in Africa, with requests of certain African countries concerning only security assistance.

“We do not have military presence there. There are requests to Russia to provide security assistance. But it is not military presence. Military presence is when one sends troops. We are not sending them. We are sending instructors at the request of African states,” Ozerov said.

July 25, 2023 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , | Leave a comment

German Business Fears Best Days Behind It as Economy Crushed by Loss of Russian Energy

By Ilya Tsukanov | Sputnik | July 24, 2023

European industrial behemoth Germany has found itself among the nations hit hardest by the West’s attempt to “punish” Russia for its military operation in Ukraine, with industrial output slumping and the country sinking into a recession earlier this year after losing access to the cheap and reliable supply of Russian hydrocarbons.

German business, administrative, and government leaders have expressed widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s energy and economic policy, and expressed fears that the Central European industrial powerhouse’s economy may have “passed its zenith,” with its best days behind it.

A survey of 484 company board members, managing directors, government ministers, and other senior decision-makers by the Allensbach Institute for Public Opinion Research for German media has found that only 24 percent of the country’s managerial class is satisfied with Economic and Climate Minister Robert Habeck’s job performance, down from 91 percent just a year ago.

Fewer than a quarter of those surveyed expect things to improve over the next six months, with two thirds saying there’s “little chance” the country can restore its lost international competitiveness, and 76 percent saying they don’t believe Habeck or the Ministry of Economic Affairs has the interests of German business in mind to a sufficient degree.

Among the top five problems cited by managers which hamper Germany’s competitiveness are high energy costs (77 percent), a shortage of skilled workers (70 percent), excessive government regulation (68 percent), a backlog in digitization programs (65 percent), and dilapidated infrastructure (61 percent).

58 percent of those polled said Germany appears to have “passed its zenith” economically, with just 22 percent expecting the economy to pick up again.

About three quarters of respondents expressed criticism of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Traffic Light coalition (which includes Scholz’s Social Democratic Party, the Greens – represented by Habeck and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, and the Free Democratic Party). Satisfaction with the coalition government has dropped from 62 percent in 2022 to 21 percent now, with 65 percent of those polled suggesting the coalition’s policies are “weakening the country.”

The Allensbach Institute conducted its survey between June 13 and July 7, with the 484 businessmen and officials polled including 89 board members of large companies, 18 ministers, and 28 heads of firms.

The German economy officially sunk into a recession in May after economic growth shrunk by 0.3 percent in the first three months of 2023.

In the aftermath of the escalation of the Donbass crisis into a full-blown Russia-NATO proxy war in Ukraine in February 2022, Germany has faced all the problems other Western countries have related to the decision to decouple themselves economically from Russia, like high inflation and spiking energy prices. However, as Europe’s main industrial economy, Germany’s crisis has been even more painful for local businesses, which have expressed concerns about the loss of competitiveness to other global behemoths like the US and China due to the energy-intensive nature of their products.

Washington added insult to Germany’s injuries last year after announcing federal subsidies to certain “green” industries, effectively trying to entice European industry to relocate to the United States for tax breaks and cheaper energy.

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned in May 2022 that decoupling the European economy from Russian energy resources would threaten the entire region with widespread deindustrialization and loss of competitiveness.

Last month, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner announced that cuts in the budget had forced Berlin to halt additional contributions to the European Union’s budget.

“Germany is both an important supplier for other European countries and an important buyer. A lasting recession in the German economy will certainly have significant effects on France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, and the Netherlands,” Paris-based economist Jacques Sapir told Sputnik earlier this month.

“If this recession lasts until next spring, the economies of the countries mentioned will also go into depression, which in turn will affect the German economy even more,” Sapir predicted, characterizing Berlin and Europe’s anti-Russian sanctions policy as “a form of suicide.”

July 24, 2023 Posted by | Economics, Malthusian Ideology, Phony Scarcity | , | Leave a comment

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