Gaza resistance stands firm six days into Israeli onslaught
The Cradle | October 12, 2023
The Gaza resistance continued targeting occupied towns and cities with large rocket barrages into 12 October, marking the sixth day since the start of Hamas’ Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and the subsequent launch of Israel’s brutal campaign against civilians in the Gaza Strip.
Before noon on Thursday, missiles targeted several Israeli settlements, towns, and sites in the Gaza envelope, including the Nahal Oz settlement, the city of Sderot, and the Raim military base. Several injuries among settlers have been reported.
Rocket barrages were also launched earlier in the morning toward Tel Aviv and other areas, with one of the missiles impacting the Ariel settlement in the occupied West Bank, causing a large explosion.
A massive barrage was fired the previous night at around 9:00 PM, resulting in injuries and significant material damage in several settlements.
Despite Israel’s announcement that the Gaza border had been sealed, resistance fighters managed to carry out several new infiltrations into the occupied territories, engaging Israeli troops with heavy gunfire and sparking clashes in several settlements.
At least 1,300 Israelis have been killed since Saturday, with more than 3,300 wounded.
Hamas has also called for a mass Palestinian uprising, particularly in the occupied West Bank, where resistance has been at an all-time high recently and has surged to unprecedented levels since the start of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Israeli warplanes have not stopped targeting civilian neighborhoods in Gaza.
According to WAFA news agency, an entire family in Gaza was killed by Israeli airstrikes on 12 October.
“Former prisoner Abdul Rahman Shihab, who spent 23 years in Israeli prisons for resisting the occupation and was released in 2011, and his wife, children, and mother were killed in the shelling of their home without prior warning,” a WAFA correspondent said.
Hundreds of homes and buildings have been razed to the ground. Several medics, journalists, and UN staffers have also been killed.
The death toll in Gaza stands at over 1,300 people, with around 6,000 others injured. The numbers are expected to continue rising.
Israel has used White Phosphorus and cluster bombs to target Gaza, both internationally banned weapons.
While Israel claims it targets Hamas sites and positions, much of the resistance group’s infrastructure lies underground and remains unaffected by the Israeli bombardment.
Peculiarities of Russian television reporting on the Hamas-Israeli war
By Gilbert Doctorow | October 11, 2023
A couple of days ago, I mentioned how Russian state television news was providing viewers with information about aspects of the ongoing armed conflict between Hamas and Israeli armed forces that you would not find in Western media during the first days of reporting. In particular, it was immediately evident from the news briefings on Vesti that Russian emphasis was on the military side rather than on the humanitarian catastrophe side.
BBC, Euronews, CNN have all focused attention on the slaughtered Israeli citizens and the apparent savagery of the Hamas fighters including today’s revelations about the hundred or more men, women and children who were killed in a Hamas raid on a kibbutz in the South of Israel. Russian news from day one showed pictures of the latest generation Israeli tank destroyed by a grenade dropped by a drone and of Hamas fighters approaching Israeli shores from the sea on paragliders. On two successive Evening with Vladimir Solovyov shows, images of the destruction to Israel’s billion dollar wall around Gaza and similar engineering feats by the insurgents as they moved deep into Israel proper. Solovyov’s panelists also provided expert analysis of the military threats Israel faces from the neighborhood if the war in Gaza escalates.
Why is this difference in what is reported important? Because coverage of the slaughter of civilians by Hamas fighters and interviews with relatives of those taken captive to Gaza as hostages plays into the hands of the Hamas strategists: it places enormous pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to proceed with a land invasion of Gaza which will result in many thousands of deaths among Israeli Defense Force soldiers as well as deaths of civilians in Gaza that may be an order of magnitude higher. The violence of an Israeli invasion may be so shocking as to justify outside Palestinian forces, namely Hezbollah in Lebanon and Arab fighters in Syria, in Iraq, in Yemen to send contingents of armed men to join the battle on the side of Hamas in Gaza.
The Western reporting has provided a wealth of material for those who would denounce the Hamas fighters as “sub-human.” However, considering the great sophistication of the Hamas methods to overcome Israeli technical devices at the border and the wall itself intended to prevent such a raid from the enclave, considering the 5,000 or more missiles sent by Hamas into Israel that overwhelmed the “Iron Dome” Israeli defenses, it is unreasonable to speak of the executions and hostage taking as spontaneous or expressions of raw anger by Arab youths. No, it had to be planned in advance and handed over to disciplined fighters for implementation with a certain military objective in mind: namely to provoke the Israeli government and draw it into the lair of urban, guerilla warfare in Gaza.
A couple of days ago, in my geopolitical analysis of the conflict, I mentioned that the dispatch of a U.S. naval force led by the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford to the waters adjacent to Israel was likely intended to intimidate Iran and possibly to prepare for an American attack on Iran under accusations that Teheran had aided and guided the Hamas attack. However, the Biden administration has now stated clearly that it has no evidence Iran was involved in preparing the Hamas action. This confirms what the supreme religious leader of Iran said yesterday in a public speech, namely that the Palestinians themselves are fiercely independent and that they alone prepared the assault on Israel. He insisted that in the West people under-appreciate the skills and determination of Palestinians. It is only individual American politicians like would-be Republican candidate for the presidency Nikki Haley and the ever saber rattling Republican Senator Lindsey Graham who are calling for Iran to be attacked now.
Based on the information about the military capabilities of pro-Hamas forces in the neighborhood aired on the Solovyov show last night by first quality Russian experts, it is far more likely that the United States military presence is intended for use against Hezbollah in Lebanon than against Iran. This organization is now said to be the strongest pro-Palestinian force in the region with tens of thousands of fighters, with advanced military equipment including perhaps one hundred thousand missiles ready for use against Israel at any time. Israel’s last incursion into Lebanon to crush Hezbollah in 2006 ran into serious difficulties when enemy strength surprised them. Some fifty Israeli tanks were said to have been destroyed then. There is no question that Hezbollah has become more powerful since. Its war hardened forces received battlefield experience very relevant to the present Hamas-Israel conflict when they fought in the civil war in Syria.
One of the Russian experts who spoke at length about the situation in Israel on Sunday night was Yevgeny Satanovsky, who is a professor attached to two centers of Near East studies in Moscow. He appeared in the past on Russian television talk shows when the subject was Russian-Turkish relations but his core specialty is in fact Israeli politics and the economy. It was difficult to follow Satanovsky’s remarks in detail because he was speaking as if to academic friends over a cup of coffee and there was a lot of jargon. But his appraisal of the Israeli military’s degraded state was clear enough. The deplorable discipline within their army compounded the initial problems from the intelligence failures of Mossad. The common denominator both in intelligence and in military command was hubris, undeserved self-confidence, lulled by technological superiority over the enemy. But just as Hamas outfoxed Israeli intelligence by returning to 19th century methods of communications, couriers and face to face meetings in place of electronic means that Israel can intercept, so fairly rudimentary bulldozers were sufficient to break through the Israeli wall and a combination of firearms and drones neutralized the sensors and cameras protecting Israel from Gaza raids.
Said Satanovsky, the Israeli military has suffered an additional debilitating flaw, namely the succession of second quality generals who rose to the premiership of Israel over the past thirty years and the politicization of military ranks. He blamed in particular the 2005 decision by then prime minister Ariel Sharon to withdraw all Israeli presence from inside Gaza and to secure the enclave from its perimeter.
For those who want to know more about who Satanovsky is, he has a large entry in the Russian language edition of Wikipedia. Suffice it here to say that he calls himself an atheist as well as a “Russian Jew,” and for several years at the start of the new millennium he helped to create the Russian Jewish Congress and served as its president for three years. He has a teaching affiliation with the International Center of University Instruction on Jewish Civilization in the Jewish University of Jerusalem.
I mention this aspect of the man’s past and present because it brings us to the special relationship that Russia has with Israel. More than one million Soviet and Russian Federation Jews emigrated to Israel. These included people from every walk of life, including some scandalously wealthy crooks who evaded Russian justice for crimes including murder and are not extradited. Since the start of the Special Military Operation, their numbers have risen with the arrival in Israel of Russia’s ‘fifth column’ personalities in the entertainment industry, in finance, in government. With the Hamas attack some of those, like the billionaire banker Mikhail Fridman, took the first plane out of Israel for Moscow this past Sunday, as reported in a feature article of The Financial Times. The scoundrel who assisted Yeltsin’s fraudulent election in 1996 and then stayed on in power to enrich himself, serving in a succession of high positions, Anatoly Chubais, also slithered out of Israel the same day, but not to Moscow, where he would face arrest. Their compatriots in Russia snigger over the cowardice and selfishness of these high visibility characters.
Of course the vast majority of Russian settlers in Israel are normal, hard working folks and it is they to whom the Vesti journalists turn now for first-hand accounts of the impact of the Hamas attack. They can be doctors receiving the wounded at hospitals or officials in the mayor’s office of one or another Israeli city. You will not see them on CNN.
On the other side of the coin, Russia has and needs excellent relations with the Arab world. Fifteen per cent of the Russian population is Muslim, with their cultural and religious center in Kazan, some 860 km southeast of Moscow, in a wealthy oil-producing region. Chechnya is also a Muslim center in the Russian Federation and its leader Ramzan Kadyrov is well known in the Middle East. More to the point, Russia is a highly valuable partner of Saudi Arabia in Opec+ in which they jointly set production targets and price targets for the global oil industry. And Russia has close relations with the United Arab Emirates, particularly financial arrangements. The UAE dirham is now used as a currency for settling import-export transactions by Russia. Of course, Russia is closely aligned with Iran as a fellow member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and, as from 1 January 2024, BRICS. The close ties to Syria need no explanation, since Russia singlehandedly saved the government of Bashar Assad from the radical fundamentalist fighters that Washington was arming. The closeness of Russian ties with Iraq was in full evidence yesterday during the state visit of the Iraqi prime minister to Moscow. Russian companies Lukoil, Gazpromneft and others have already invested $16 billion in production assets in Iraq.
The official position with respect to the war now raging between Israel and Hamas was stated yesterday on television by President Putin: it can be solved only with implementation of the UN resolution on creation of a fully sovereign Palestine state, i.e. the “two state solution” that has been so long discussed but never brought to fruition. However, what will follow the creation of such a state is equally important and remains terra incognita: which world powers will guarantee the security of these two states?
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023
Iran and Saudi Arabia say Israel, its supporters inviting ‘destructive insecurity’
Press TV – October 11, 2023
Iran and Saudi Arabia have said that the Israeli regime’s crimes and the United States’ green light for the atrocities stand to invite “destructive insecurity” for the occupying regime and its supporters.
The remarks were made on Wednesday in the first phone call to take place between President Ebrahim Raeisi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Mohammad Jamshidi, the Iranian chief executive’s deputy chief of staff for political affairs, wrote on a message on X, formerly known as Twitter.
The comments came after the Gaza Strip’s resistance movements initiated their biggest operation against Israel in years on Saturday in response to the occupying regime’s decades-long campaign of bloodshed and destruction against Palestinians.
Codenamed the al-Aqsa Storm Operation, the campaign killed at least 1,000 Israeli forces and settlers, and led to many others among them being taken hostage by the resistance groups.
Shedding further light on the contents of the conversation between Raeisi and bin Salman, Jamshidi said, “…the 2 agreed on the need to end war crimes against Palestine.”
Israel has responded to the Palestinian operation by waging a “long” war against Gaza, for which it has called up an unprecedented 300,000 reservists.
The Israeli war has killed at least 1,100 Palestinians, including 326 children, and injured 5,339 others.
The military campaign has seen the regime leveling entire districts and featured its use of banned white phosphorous munitions against densely populated neighborhoods.
Earlier this week, Israeli Minister for Military Affairs Yoav Gallant announced a “total blockade” to stop food and fuel from reaching Gaza, home to 2.3 million people.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday said he was “deeply distressed” by Israel’s announcement of the complete siege.
“The humanitarian situation in Gaza was extremely dire before these hostilities; now it will only deteriorate exponentially,” Guterres said.
Support not ‘indefinite’, White House tells Ukraine
RT | October 12, 2023
The US is running out of money for Ukraine unless Congress approves additional funding, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Wednesday.
“In the near term, we’ve got appropriations and authorities for both Ukraine and for Israel,” Kirby said during the daily press briefing. “But you don’t want to be trying to bake in long-term support when you’re at the end of the rope.”
“And in Ukraine, on the Ukraine funding, we’re coming near to the end of the rope,” he added. “Today we announced $200 million, and we’ll keep that aid going as long as we can, but it’s not going to be indefinite.”
Asked to define “near term,” Kirby said he could not point to a specific date, because that depended on how quickly Ukraine and Israel expended their equipment and ammunition “or what the need is and what our ability to do it is.”
On Tuesday, a Pentagon spokesperson assured reporters that the US had the ability to “continue our support both to Ukraine, Israel, and maintain our own global readiness.”
Kirby, however, admitted that the money previously appropriated for Ukraine by Congress is “not going to last forever” and that the lawmakers needed to approve more and soon.
“The sooner there’s a speaker of the House, obviously, the more comfortable we’ll all be in terms of being able to support Israel and Ukraine,” he said.
The House of Representatives has not had a speaker since last Tuesday, when Kevin McCarthy became the first-ever speaker to be ousted in a House vote, over an alleged secret deal with the White House to approve more Ukraine funding. Several Republicans led the charge against their California colleague, backed by all of the minority Democrats. Steve Scalise of Louisiana, the Republican nominee to succeed McCarthy, has been supportive of funding Ukraine in the past.
Since February 2022, when the conflict with Russia escalated, the US has channeled almost $44 billion worth of military aid to Ukraine, as well as billions more in cash, humanitarian and economic assistance.
Operation Al-Aqsa Flood has altered the relationship between Palestine and Israel
By Ramzy Baroud | MEMO | October 10, 2023
UN: Israel’s total Gaza blockade amounts to war crime
Press TV – October 10, 2023
The United Nations human rights chief has warned that Israel’s imposition of a total blockade on the Gaza Strip amounts to a war crime and violates international law.
Volker Turk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said in a statement on Tuesday that the blockade “seriously” risks the already dire humanitarian situation in the Palestinian enclave.
Turk underscored the limited capacity of medical facilities to operate, especially in light of the growing number of injured. He said Israel’s “imposition of sieges that endanger the lives of civilians by depriving them of goods essential for their survival is prohibited under international humanitarian law.”
“This risks seriously compounding the already dire human rights and humanitarian situation in Gaza, including the capacity of medical facilities to operate, especially in light of increasing numbers of injured,” Turk said, adding that a siege may amount to “collective punishment.”
Separately on Tuesday, UN Human Rights spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani clarified that such acts may amount to a war crime. Findings of the UN rights chief are based on a review of available material, including from its own monitors on the ground, she added.
Furthermore, UN children’s agency spokesman James Elder sounded alarm over the siege on Gaza.
“UNICEF is extremely alarmed about measures to cut electricity, to cut food, to cut water, to cut fuel from entering Gaza. This will add another layer of suffering to the existing catastrophe faced by families in Gaza.”
Israel launched deadly strikes on the densely-populated Gaza Strip on October 7, after the resistance movement Hamas waged the surprise Operation Al-Aqsa Storm against the usurping entity.
Hamas said its operation came in response to Israel’s violations at al-Aqsa Mosque in occupied East al-Quds and growing settler violence.
According to the Gaza Health Ministry, at least 830 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli bombardment.
Israel will suffer much more damage from this war than it might expect
By Abbas Juma | RT | October 10, 2023
On October 7 the world was shocked by another flare-up of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and, this time, a very serious one. Not only did Hamas fire rockets at Israel, but it also penetrated Israeli territory. The operation, called Al-Aqsa Flood, has been unprecedented in terms of audacity and planning. Over a thousand Israelis have been killed, it’s estimated, and more than 3,500 wounded, territories were captured, military personnel and civilians were taken hostage. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the start of a full-scale war, promising to leave the Gaza Strip in ruins.
The current events were a result of the biggest failure of Israel’s state security system in recent history. They have severely shaken the belief in the “omnipresence” of the Mossad (Israel’s intelligence service) and the invincibility of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). For many hours, the Israeli army was utterly helpless as Palestinian armed groups attacked the country. Israeli intelligence also failed to prevent the catastrophe in any way. Meanwhile, even the day chosen by Hamas for the start of the operation was quite symbolic – the 50th anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
Presently, the Israeli authorities have only one way out– to wash away their dishonor with the blood of the enemy. This could be done by pulling ground troops into Gaza and dealing a destructive blow to Hamas. Things, however, are further complicated by the fact that Hamas is not alone. It is backed by Iran and the Lebanese militant organization Hezbollah. Earlier, Hezbollah promised to open a second front, and today it openly joined the armed conflict on the side of the Palestinians. So far, it has taken action only from the border area. The sides are exchanging strikes, Hezbollah already has deaths, for which the leadership of the movement promised to take revenge.
Experts note that Hezbollah possesses advanced weapons, considerable combat experience, and has the full support of Tehran.
No need to underestimate the opponent
Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has warned that Hezbollah has become more dangerous than ever in recent years. With major victories on the battlefield in Syria, huge weapons arsenals in Lebanon, and powerful allies throughout the region, Hezbollah is at the height of its military and political power, and is at its strongest since its founding in 1985.
It is not publicly known exactly what type of weapons Hezbollah possesses and how many weapons it has, or how large the organization’s combat units are (Hezbollah is not just a paramilitary formation, but a legitimate political party in Lebanon). However, some information is available. The publicly available data and observations, as well as information from people tied to the organization, allow us to draw certain conclusions.
The potential to surprise
Theoretically, everything that the Iranian military-industrial complex has to offer can be transferred to Hezbollah fighters. This includes dozens of types of missiles and drones. Moreover, Tehran aids Hezbollah with hundreds of millions of dollars annually. This means that Hezbollah can offer serious resistance to Israel not only on land, but also at sea and in the air. There is evidence that in recent years Hezbollah has acquired advanced naval military equipment, including Yakhont and C-802 anti-ship cruise missiles, as well as UAV submarines.
It also possesses ballistic missiles. Experts say that the range of Iranian missiles is 500-to-700 kilometers, which allows them to hit any point on the map in Israel.
As for the number of fighters, two years ago Hezbollah’s Secretary General claimed that the organization has about 100,000 trained fighters. Hassan Nasrallah stressed that this is only the number of professional soldiers. The organization may also enlist the support of numerous allied groups and followers from around the world.
A focus on missiles and more
Hezbollah’s arsenal of missile weapons has steadily grown since 2006 (the Second Lebanon War). According to media reports, it currently has about 200,000 missiles, including high-precision, intelligent missile systems, as well as drones and air defense systems.
Russia’s Kornet anti-tank missile system was used during battles in southern Lebanon in 2006, and was able to hit Israel’s Merkava tanks. As for the high-precision missiles that Netanyahu mentioned at the UN in 2017 and 2018, these are Zelzal artillery rockets (160-km range) which Iran actively used in the war with Iraq (1980-1988), Zelzal-2 artillery rockets (210-km range), and the Fateh-110 surface-to-surface ballistic missile. The latter was used during Operation Martyr Soleimani, launched by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) against the US military in Iraq in response to the assassination of the commander of the Quds Force, General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in Baghdad.
It is also known that the Iranians handed over countless artillery pieces and shells to their Lebanese colleagues. Moreover, Hezbollah possesses many heavy armored vehicles. Some of them we’ve seen during the Syrian campaign – for example, T-55, T-72, and T-80 tanks. The organization also has various types of infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, the 2S1 Carnation self-propelled howitzer, the Shilka anti-aircraft self-propelled weapon system, and more.
Hezbollah is capable of firing 3,000 rockets per day across Israeli territory, and can reach targets at any distance. Experts also claim that, as of 2021, the Lebanese party had about 2,000 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Considering Iran’s highly successful development of combat drones, there is little doubt that this is indeed true.
Conclusions
Israel’s situation is further complicated by the existence of an extensive network of underground tunnels used by Hezbollah fighters for moving around, transporting military equipment, and storing weapons. The IDF regularly destroys tunnels stretching from southern Lebanon to northern Israel, but even the Israeli military recognizes that the number of secret underground passages is overwhelming, and it is impossible to destroy all of them.
Gadi Eizenkot, the 21st Chief of General Staff of the IDF, often noted that these tunnels allow Hezbollah to carry out unexpected strikes. However, the organization continues developing in further ways; it trains hackers and pays increasing attention to information technologies. Five years ago, I was able to interview Hezbollah’s media officer Muhammad Afif. This is what he told me at the time:
“We confront our enemies at all possible levels – including through intelligence services, special forces, ideology, and of course, the Internet. We do not intend to lag behind our opponents in anything. Hezbollah closely watches Israel’s every move. Any new technology that they have, we have too. Hezbollah has a unit that specializes in electronic warfare and hackers. We pay a lot of attention to advertising, PR, and social networks. Of course, we cannot say that we are unrivaled in this, but it is a promising direction. Especially among young people who want to work online and know how to do it. For our part, we provide them with everything they need for training and work. Not only Lebanese people are involved – many young people from abroad support Hezbollah.”
Considering all of the above, we may draw several important conclusions. If Israel wins a full-scale war with Hezbollah, it will surely be a Pyrrhic victory. Hezbollah will also suffer irreparable damage as a result of a direct clash with Israel. However, there is a fundamental difference in the principles of the two sides. Hezbollah is an organization that was created (and exists) to fight and die, once it has fulfilled its mission of mortally wounding the enemy. The question is, would Israel be ready to do the same?
Abbas Juma is an international journalist, political commenter, Middle East and Africa specialist.
10 reasons why India’s stance on Gaza is unsustainable
BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | INDIAN PUNCHLINE | OCTOBER 9, 2023
The Indian reaction to the massive eruption of violence between Hamas and Israel on Saturday belies ground realities and ignores the geopolitical environment in that region and globally in which this cataclysmic event merits careful appraisal. It will prove to be unsustainable and can damage the country’s interests and standing globally.
One, Indian policy has blatantly tilted toward Israel. What has been a matter of speculation assumed habitation and a name when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tweet on Saturday underscored India’s “solidarity” with Israel.
The resonant expression signifies a historic departure from India’s consistent stance on the Palestine issue, which followed, quintessentially, the footfalls of Gandhiji who had the prescience and vision to oppose the creation of Israel on Palestinian homelands in the cruel manner in which the Western powers imposed that geopolitical construct on West Asia.
What prompted this radical shift on an issue where angels fear to tread remains a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
Two, Delhi had the benefit of a “preview” of what is to follow in Gaza in the coming weeks or months. Prime Minister Benjamin proclaimed that the “enemy will pay an unprecedented price” and promised that Israel would “return fire of a magnitude that the enemy has not known.” He declared war on Gaza.
Netanyahu’s capacity for mindless violence is a legion. Yet, Delhi rushed in to react at an emotional, subjective level.
Three, the possibility of a ground offensive and even occupation of Gaza is real. Simply put, India’s patented mantra that ‘this is not an era of wars’ obliges it to mark distance from Netanyahu. But instead, India risks taking a virtual partisan in the carnage that is to follow — politically, morally, diplomatically.
At such a crucial juncture, at the very least, our government being a ‘Vishwa Guru’ who tirelessly propagates the notion of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakaam (The World is One Family), gets exposed, warts and all. India’s role should be of a unifier rather than divider.
Four, India’s reaction is clearly at odds with the sentiments of the Global South. For, other than the ‘collective West’, India becomes a lone ranger in the Global Majority that stands shoulder to shoulder with Israel. Empathy with victims of violence is one thing, but political support for the collective West (which is what this entails, in reality, in the prevailing climate in world politics) is another thing.
Two days after Vladimir Putin praised Modi’s India sky-high as a stellar example of a civilisation state role model in a multipolar world in a landmark speech addressing an elite audience, distinguishing it from the predatory neo-colonial Western powers, India negated his thesis.
There is no question that the Indian stance exposes the paradox of its self-appointed claim to be the leader of the Global South. When the crunch time came, Indian elites showed their true colours.
Five, Israel’s reaction, which is already under way, is expected to be massive, unremitting and ruthless. An Israeli occupation of Gaza is a high probability, howsoever foolish that might eventually turn out to be. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant’s chilling words vowing to “change the reality in Gaza” will mean that increasingly, it will become difficult for the countries of the region and the Global South —and even the ‘friends of Israel’ in the US and Europe — to remain passive.
India has dug itself a foxhole from where it will be difficult to come out saving face and battered reputation and credibility.
Six, troubling questions arise in regard of India’s credentials to be a UN Security Council permanent member. Whose interests, after all, does India represent other than its self-interests? This becomes a daunting question for which there are no easy answers. Succinctly put, the fruits of decades of hard work by successive Indian leaderships and diplomats are being squandered away.
Seven, all wars come to an end through negotiations. But this incoming war will be a long and wide-ranging one. The wily politician in Netanyahu, who is under immense pressure domestically, facing personal legal charges and holding on to power with the help of ultra-nationalist and right-wing partners, will seize the opportunity to salvage his reputation as Israel’s great protector and rally the political and security establishment in his country, which is deeply divided, and shall be in no hurry to sit at the negotiating table with Hamas.
On the other hand, American intention will be to claw its way up the greasy pole of West Asian politics after the Iran-Saudi rapprochement. In a major display of force, a vast armada of warships and planes is slouching toward East Mediterranean. How this force projection will pan out remains to be seen.
The temptation will be there to reimpose US hegemony in West Asia and to project President Biden as a decisive leader at a time when, on the one hand, his re-election bid in the 2024 election is wide open and, on the other hand, the spectre of a humiliating defeat in Ukraine haunts his presidency.
Suffice to say, the political interests of Biden and Netanyahu are coalescing and the stench of Israel’s war will likely touch the heavens and may even engulf other countries in the region as time passes. The Indian leadership will be hard-pressed to demonstrate its friendship and bonhomie with Netanyahu in an apocalyptic scenario.
Eight, Modi government might as well say goodbye to the grand idea of building an Indo-Arab economic corridor to Europe in a foreseeable future. That means, Haifa Port, which was acquired by the Adani Group in a “strategic purchase” at a reported cost of $1.13 billion with Netanyahu’s blessing, will be underperforming. Smart economic diplomacy entailed fostering Arab-Israeli amity.
Nine, Indian government has blithely ignored that Israel is a state sponsoring terrorism. Optics matter in politics and international affairs, and at a time when India’s own credentials are under Western scrutiny, it is doubly important that it is careful in its words and behaviour. There is an old saying, ‘Show me your friends and I will show you your future!’ If the intention is to fly on the wings of the Israeli lobby in North America — or to catch Biden’s eye — it smacks of naïveté, to say the least.
Finally, India should know that in the final analysis, sins are forgotten and forgiven when a political movement that might have had uses of violence in its toolbox commands the overwhelming support of the masses. Indeed, that is how it should be. By that yardstick, Hamas passed the litmus test decades ago, much before the BJP formed a government in 2014.
Hamas today is the unquestioned leader of Palestinian aspirations, towering head and shoulders above peer groups and is a mainstream interlocutor for the regional powers. It even has a representative office in Moscow. Clearly, the Indian reaction, which tends to view the current development as a ‘stand alone’ event of terrorism, is anachronistic.
An enduring Palestinian settlement will have to be inclusive and will include Hamas after the audacity of hope it has displayed. The BJP leadership should educate its provincial leaders with tunnel vision on international affairs that Islamism is not to be equated with terrorism in the global commons, especially the politics of the Muslim Brotherhood to which Hamas belongs.


