US Intelligence Community is Covering its Ass… What is Really Going On with the US War on Iran?
By Larry C. Johnson – SONAR21 – March 8, 2026
Let’s start with the big news from a US Intelligence Community leak to the Washington Post… John Hudson and Warren P. Strobel got the story:
A classified report by the National Intelligence Council found that even a large-scale assault on Iran launched by the United States would be unlikely to oust the Islamic republic’s entrenched military and clerical establishment, a sobering assessment as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials say has “only just begun.”
The findings, confirmed to The Washington Post by three people familiar with the report’s contents, raise doubts about President Donald Trump’s declared plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership structure and install a ruler of his choosing.
The report, completed about a week before the United States and Israel initiated the war on Feb. 28, outlined succession scenarios stemming from either a narrowly tailored campaign against Iran’s leaders or a broader assault against its leadership and government institutions, the people familiar with its findings said. In both cases, the intelligence concluded that Iran’s clerical and military establishment would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power, these people said.
This means the war in Iran is not going well and the US IC is beginning the Washington game of, “Don’t blame me, I warned you not to do it.” I don’t know if Tulsi Gabbard authorized this leak, or if it came from senior analysts from the four principal agencies that were involved in writing this classified report — i.e., the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency, State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, and the National Security Agency. It is important to understand that this report was produced by the National Intelligence Council, aka the NIC, and it is under the direct control of Tulsi Gabbard. In any event I see this as a clear signal from people involved in producing this report that they will not be the scapegoats when the Iran war turns into a debacle for Donald Trump.
I get dozens of emails a day from readers asking questions and offering commentary. I try to read and respond to all. Today I received a series of questions from one of my subscribers. Instead of responding to this person personally, I decided to save time and post for all to see. Hopefully this helps you plow thru the ton of propaganda being spewed by Trump and the Zionists.
1) I’ve read that Tehran is now being hit with gravity bombs. Does the US now have total air space control? What happened to S300-400 and super long range radar able to detect stealth aircraft?
The US does not have air supremacy. The US and Israeli planes are flying close to Iran’s western border and releasing primarily the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile aka JASSAMs, which have a range between 230 and 600 miles depending on the variant (AGM-158A JASSM (baseline): ~370 km [230 miles] and AGM-158B JASSM-ER (Extended Range): ~980 km [610 miles]). I don’t know how many, if any, S300-S400 are deployed in Iran. Iran has reportedly shot down 29 MQ9s and Hermes drones since 28 February, which represents a financial loss of $800 million.
2) What does it imply that Iran has apologized to its neighbors for attacking them?
That is a misreading of what the Iranian President said. Pezeshkian personally apologized to the neighboring countries (Gulf/Arab states) that had been affected by Iranian missile and drone strikes, saying something along the lines of: “I should apologize to the neighboring countries that were attacked by Iran, on my own behalf and on behalf of Iran.” However, Pezeshkian in later remarks emphasized that any de-escalation gesture was undermined by US actions (like Trump’s response framing it as capitulation). As long as the US continues to conduct military operations from the territories of the Gulf/Arab states Iran will (and has) continue to attack the US targets in those countries.
3) What are the targets of the new cluster bomb rockets? Airfields?
The most recent video evidence shows Iran has hit Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv, the oil refinery in Haifa. The clusters from the Iranian rocket are hitting ground targets in Tel Aviv and Haifa at a minimum.
4) Why can’t Iran stop the constant barrage they are undergoing? They seem as defenseless as Gaza.
Iran does not have a perfect air defense system. Worth noting that despite Donald Trump’s threats, the number of US AGM strikes in Iran have declined by 80%. According to Simplicius :
US’s strikes have likewise fallen off from nearly 1,000 on the first day to an estimated 200-300 per day or less since then—and many if not most of those strikes are hitting superficial targets to “fluff up the score”, like a plane boneyard which surely added a couple dozen “points” to the “impressive” strike list
5) Is the Iranian Air Force destroyed?
No. The strikes on Iranian combat planes have been largely confined to the Western part of Iran. They still have ample capability in the East. Iran maintains 17 Tactical Fighter Bases (TFBs), and in recent years several new airfields have been constructed in central and eastern Iran, with at least two becoming permanent TFBs — the first established since 1979. One known eastern base is TFB.14 near Mashhad, in the far northeast. To protect assets from preemptive strikes, Iran has moved much of its air power underground. The “Eagle 44” (Oghab 44) airbase, unveiled in 2023, is a massive facility carved into the Zagros Mountains, designed to withstand bunker-buster bombs and housing fighter jets, drones, and command facilities. As of February 28, 2026, reports indicate MiG-29s flying over Tehran and Su-24 strike aircraft being repositioned, suggesting active defensive preparations.
6) Is it hard to put airfields out of service? For example send all fuel tanks up in flames. The conclusion I reach is that it requires high precision missiles and Iran doesn’t have enough of those types to expend them on that type of target. Meanwhile Tehran burns and some US radars are gone.
Blowing up fuel tanks can create a fuel shortage, but it does not disable airfields. Cratering an airfield and putting it permanently out of commission is difficult because the runways can be repaired. You need to stop listening to the US propaganda claims about massive destruction. And how do you know how many high precision missiles Iran has? I don’t know, but what I continue to see is that Iran is firing several waves of precision missile attacks into Tel Aviv and Haifa as well as US bases/ installations throughout the Persian Gulf.
7) The fact that US has been blinded by radar loss hasn’t seemed to help Iran much. Newer Iranian missiles are getting through but that would have been true regardless of those radar stations status.
You answer your own question. Yes, the US loss of the advance radar systems has blinded it and, as a consequence, Iranian missiles are getting through. So what is your real question?
I had an excellent conversation about the current state of the war on Iran with Mario Nawfal this afternoon:
Andrei Martyanov and I spent an hour on Friday afternoon with Randy Credico on his show, Live on the Fly:
Step into My Parlor
By William Schryver | March 7, 2026
The dominant narrative in relation to the Iran War is that the United States and Israel are mercilessly mauling the Iranians, and are on the verge of administering the coup de grâce, after which Iran will obeisantly submit to unconditional surrender, and bathe Emperor Trump’s feet with their penitent tears.
At least that’s the Hollywood version of the tale.
Here in the real world, American stockpiles of long-range stand-off strike munitions (Tomahawk: ~900 nautical miles; JASSM: ~600 nautical miles) have reached a critical stage.
In the case of the US, it is almost certain that usable Tomahawk inventory is now no more than ~2500, perhaps as few as ~2000 when you consider how many “duds” there have been in recent years.
They may have ~3000 JASSM left.
So, about ~5000 subsonic cruise missiles to finish off the job of subduing Iran, and still have enough to fight elsewhere if the need arises.
But it’s already not even remotely enough to go up against Russia or China. They would be gone in a matter of days.
It’s a pitiful state of affairs for the erstwhile “Greatest Military in Human History”.
In any case, given the severely depleted stockpiles of American long-range cruise missiles, we have arrived at a very important juncture in this war.
In order to defeat Iran without compromising its already tenuous ability to face Russia and/or China, the US will have to start using glide bombs instead of its precious stand-off missiles.
The problem with that, of course, is that dropping JDAM glide bombs requires the launching of aircraft to get within ~40 nmi.
That is well within the “Danger Zone” of Iranian air defenses.
Of course, most people believe Iranian air defenses have been completely eradicated; that US and Israeli aircraft are now flying over Iran unopposed.
Total air supremacy.
I am not nearly so sanguine when it comes to this question.
Sure, when this war started back up in earnest almost a week ago, Iran didn’t have sufficient breadth and depth of integrated air defenses to defend comprehensively against Tomahawk, JASSM, or the relative handful of Sparrow ALBMs Israel has.
So they decided to defend a few very important sites as best they could, but otherwise accept the reality that other targets were going to get hit — at least until the inherent limitations of the strained US stockpiles began to assert their inexorable logic.
What I believe the Iranians have done is to judiciously husband their air defense systems in anticipation of the day when the US and Israel would be compelled to venture into range in order to drop glide bombs.
That day is either already here, or is very soon approaching.
Missiles and bombs are a challenge to shoot down, but aircraft are not. They are all exceedingly vulnerable, including the B-2, F-22, and F-35.
If the US flies “stealth” aircraft into Iran to drop short-range munitions, I fully expect some will get shot down, including the devoutly venerated B-2.
And if the US flies “non-stealth” aircraft into Iran to drop short-range munitions, I fully expect several to get shot down.
Then we’ll have a serious crisis on our hands.
US approves $151.8M weapons sale to Israel, waiving congressional review
MEMO | March 7, 2026
The Trump administration approved a possible $151.8 million weapons sale to Israel on Friday, invoking “emergency” authority to waive the congressional review requirements as Washington and Israel continue to attack Iran, Anadolu reports.
According to a statement from the State Department’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, the proposed sale includes 12,000 BLU-110A/B general purpose, 1,000-pound bomb bodies, along with engineering, logistics and technical support services.
“The Secretary of State has determined and provided detailed justification that an emergency exists that requires the immediate sale to the Government of Israel,” the agency said, waiving the congressional review requirements under Section 36(b) of the Arms Export Control Act.
The principal contractor for the proposed sale will be Repkon USA, based in Garland, Texas, with part of the bomb bodies expected to be transferred from existing US stock, said the statement.
The approval comes amid escalating regional tensions following joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran launched Feb. 28, killing more than 1,000 people, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, over 150 schoolgirls and senior military officials.
The conflict has triggered widespread regional instability and retaliatory attacks from Tehran against US-linked sites across the region. A drone strike in Kuwait killed six US service members at a tactical operations center.
The move also comes as criticism in Congress about US arms transfers to Israel has grown during Israel’s genocidal war on the Gaza Strip. In July, a record 27 Democratic senators voted in favor of a resolution to block certain weapons sales to Israel, citing concerns about civilian casualties and a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, though the measure ultimately failed.
“Burnt Bridges”: Why Trump’s Plan to Use Kurds Against Iran Is Doomed to Fail
By Mohammed ibn Faisal al-Rashid – New Eastern Outlook – March 7, 2026
Following a series of devastating U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Tehran is engulfed in uncertainty. However, the White House, facing the prospect of a ground operation in mountainous terrain, is betting on an old, tested, but extremely risky tool—Kurdish forces. The Donald Trump administration views the Kurds as ideal “cannon fodder” to ignite a civil war in Iran. But will this plan work? Given Trump’s history of betrayals, deceit, and cynical pragmatism, the attempt to play the Kurdish card might not only fail but could also backfire on the United States itself.
A Proxy Army for a Big War
While the U.S. Air Force continues to bomb Iranian cities and Donald Trump boasts about destroying the enemy’s navy, Washington is soberly assessing the risks. Sending thousands of American soldiers into Iran would be political suicide for a president who promised voters an end to “endless wars.” Analysts agree: the U.S. will not launch a full-scale invasion like in Iraq or Afghanistan due to the mountainous terrain, the risk of high casualties, and a lack of public support.
A solution was quickly found. As early as March 4th, the South Korean publication Donga Ilbo reported that thousands of Kurdish fighters had begun a ground offensive into Iran from Iraqi territory. According to Fox News and CNN, cited by the publication, the operation is coordinated with active participation from the CIA, which is providing weapons and equipment.
But is this really the case? Currently, data on a massive invasion by thousands of Kurdish fighters is contradictory.
The scenario appears logical: The Kurds, who make up about 10% of Iran’s population (approximately 9 million people), have historically faced discrimination within the Shia theocracy. They are concentrated in the western provinces bordering Iraq, making them an ideal foothold. Kurdish parties based in Iraqi Kurdistan have already united into the “Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan,” establishing a unified military command.
Israel: Old Ties and New Opportunities
The role of Israel deserves special attention. Tel Aviv has long-standing, complex but generally positive relations with Kurdish movements, viewing them as a natural counterweight to hostile Arab and Iranian regimes. In the current conflict, Israel has taken on the role of “igniter.” According to Middle East Eye, the Israeli Air Force is striking positions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) precisely in Iran’s western provinces, effectively preparing a corridor for the advancement of Kurdish forces.
According to experts, Israeli strategists are actively exploring the option of using Iranian Kurds (specifically groups like PAK, linked to the PKK) as manpower instead of American soldiers. For Israel, this is an opportunity to inflict maximum damage on its primary enemy without getting bogged down in a protracted ground conflict. The calculation is that the Kurdish national movement could become the “Trojan horse” capable of exploding Iran from within.
However, a fundamental contradiction lies here: the interests of Israel and the U.S. are often situational. And if Washington decides its goals are achieved, the Kurds could once again be left alone to face an enraged adversary.
“I Don’t Like the Kurds”: A Bloody History of Betrayals
This is precisely where Trump’s plan begins to unravel. To understand why the Kurds are unlikely to become a pliable tool in the White House’s hands, one need only look at Trump’s relationship with these people.
As early as 2020, the world learned shocking details from the memoirs of former National Security Advisor John Bolton. According to Bolton, Trump stated in a small circle, “I don’t like the Kurds. They run from the Iraqis, they run from the Turks. The only time they don’t run is when we’re bombing everything around them with F-18s.” This statement isn’t mere rudeness; it’s the quintessence of Trump’s approach: he despises those he considers weak and feels no moral obligation towards allies.
The most cynical example was the betrayal of the Syrian Kurds in October 2019. Trump then ordered the withdrawal of American troops from northern Syria, effectively giving a “green light” to the Turkish invasion. The Kurds, who had lost 11,000 fighters battling ISIS and were America’s only reliable partner on the ground, were abandoned to their fate. American officers on the ground were shocked: “They trusted us, and we betrayed that trust,” one of them told The New Arab at the time.
The “1991 Syndrome” is also vivid in Kurdish memory. Then, President George H.W. Bush called on Iraqi Kurds to rise up against Saddam Hussein but abandoned them when the uprising began, allowing the regime’s army to brutally crush the rebellion with helicopters. Now, this nightmare seems poised to repeat itself in Iran.
Can the U.S. Ignite a Civil War in Iran?
Formally, the prerequisites for unrest exist. Besides ethnic Kurds, Iran is home to disaffected Baluch, Azeris, and Arabs. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the initial strikes, a power vacuum could emerge in the country. The White House has already openly stated its readiness to deal with a “new government” and is discussing who should lead Iran after regime change.
Trump personally called on Iranian diplomats worldwide to seek asylum, promising to help “form a new, better Iran.” It would seem this is the moment of truth: Kurds and other minorities should rise up and overthrow the hated regime.
But reality is more complex.
Fear of History Repeating. As analyst Oral Toga noted in a comment to Middle East Eye, the fact that the U.S. abandoned the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will serve as a lesson for Kurds in Iraq and Iran. “The airstrikes will end someday, but Tehran will remain there forever,” he reminds us.
Lack of Strategy. The U.S. and Israel have no clear vision for Iran’s future. Do they want a unitary state, a federation, or the complete disintegration of the country? Using the Kurds as a battering ram without guaranteeing them autonomy or protection after the war would condemn the region to a bloodbath. The Kurdish leaders themselves understand this. As activist Golaleh Sharafkandi stated, “We have a political program supported by an army, not the other way around.”
Regional Opposition. The creation of a new Kurdish zone of influence in northern Iran would be opposed not only by Iran but also by Turkey and even Azerbaijan, which see it as a threat to their sovereignty and a risk of separatism. Ankara already brutally suppresses any pro-Kurdish movements near its borders. Azerbaijan, which has strategic relations with Turkey and Israel, has already expressed condolences to Iran and called for peace, fearing destabilization.
Operational Difficulties. Several sources, including the Turkish agency Anadolu, report that the information about the offensive has been denied or clarified. The Kurdish factions themselves deny starting a full-scale invasion, and Iranian media report that the border is under control. The groups ready to fight number, by various estimates, between 8,000 and 10,000 people—insufficient to conquer territory without direct air support and U.S. special forces, which Trump is not yet ready to provide.
Dreams of a Caliphate and the Bitter Truth
Donald Trump’s attempt to use the Kurds as a match to ignite the powder keg of Iran appears to be an adventure based on a denial of reality. Yes, the Kurds hate the Ayatollahs’ regime. Yes, they want autonomy and rights. But they do not want to once again become bargaining chips in a high-stakes game where their physical survival is on the line.
Trump has already twice demonstrated his true attitude towards Kurdish allies—in Iraq and Syria. A third time could be the last, not for the American president’s reputation, but for hundreds of thousands of civilians who would find themselves caught between the hammer of the Iranian army and the anvil of American geopolitical ambitions. The Kurdish leaders, united in a coalition, understand perfectly well: when the situation gets hot, the White House might once again throw up its hands and say, “This is not our war.”
Therefore, despite the loud headlines and CIA leaks, the active use of Kurds in full-scale combat operations is unlikely. Kurds might try to expand their autonomy amidst the chaos, but playing the role of a disciplined U.S. proxy army that can be unleashed on Tehran and then written off—they won’t buy that anymore. The price of trust in America under Trump has proven too high, and paying off those debts may take decades.
Muhammad ibn Faisal al-Rashid, political scientist, expert on the Arab world
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Iran Red Crescent says 6,668 civilian sites targeted in US-Israeli attacks
MEMO | March 7, 2026
The Iranian Red Crescent Society said that 6,668 civilian locations have been targeted in attacks carried out by the US and Israel, including thousands of homes and dozens of public service facilities, Anadolu reports.
In a statement, the Iranian aid organization said that the attacks by the US and Israel struck a wide range of civilian infrastructure across the country.
According to the statement, 5,535 residential buildings, 1,041 commercial units, 14 health centers, 65 schools, and 13 facilities affiliated with the Red Crescent were among the locations hit.
The organization also reported that numerous aid and rescue vehicles were damaged during the attacks, while several relief workers and Red Crescent staff members were injured.
The statement emphasized that the attacks by the US and Israel targeting civilians violate the Geneva Conventions.
“International institutions, humanitarian aid organizations, and human rights defenders are expected to take urgent and effective measures to protect civilian lives, ensure the safety of aid workers, and guarantee respect for the rules of international humanitarian law,” it added.
UK readies deployment of Prince of Wales carrier amid war on Iran
Al Mayadeen | March 7, 2026
The United Kingdom is reportedly preparing one of its naval assets for possible deployment to West Asia as Western military pressure on Iran continues to grow following the US-Israeli assault on the country.
According to media reports, the Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales is being placed on higher readiness, with its preparation time reduced so that it can be deployed more quickly if ordered by the British government. Crew members have reportedly been warned that the vessel could be sent to the region amid the escalating confrontation triggered by the US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
According to reports, the move does not mean the carrier will necessarily be dispatched immediately. However, raising its readiness would allow the government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer to deploy the warship rapidly should the aggression against Iran escalate further.
Western buildup around Iran
The preparations come as Britain gradually expands its military presence across the region following the US–Israeli assault on Iran that began on February 28.
Since then, London has moved additional forces to the Middle East, including deploying more fighter jets to Qatar and sending helicopters equipped with counter-drone systems to Cyprus.
British forces have also been involved in intercepting drones and missiles across several countries in the region, while the Royal Navy has ordered the destroyer HMS Dragon to the eastern Mediterranean to reinforce security around British bases on the island of Cyprus.
These deployments also follow a drone strike targeting the British air base at RAF Akrotiri, during which British forces identified the drone as a Shahed-type model widely associated with Iranian production. The launch location was not immediately known.
Despite Western attempts to increase their military presence, Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected calls for surrender and warned that any further escalation will be met with additional responses.
Iran warns of consequences after US strike on water plant
Al Mayadeen | March 7, 2026
Iran’s foreign minister has accused the United States of striking a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island, warning that the attack has disrupted water supplies to dozens of villages.
In a post on social media, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the incident, describing it as a serious violation and warning of potential consequences.
“The US committed a blatant and desperate crime by attacking a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island,” Araghchi wrote. “Water supply in 30 villages has been impacted.”
“US set this precedent”: Araghchi
The minister added that targeting civilian infrastructure could have significant repercussions. “Attacking Iran’s infrastructure is a dangerous move with grave consequences. The US set this precedent, not Iran,” he stressed.
It is worth noting that Qeshm Island, located in the Strait of Hormuz, relies on desalination facilities to convert seawater into drinking water, making such plants critical for local communities. According to Iranian officials, the facility supplies water to around 30 villages in the area.
Trump’s war on Iran unjustified, violates int’l law: Legal experts
The United States has insisted that the aggression against Iran was launched to curb “direct threats” that they claim the Islamic Republic posed. However, legal experts say the reasons cited by Washington do not justify the war under international law.
US and Israeli attacks targeted Iran on February 28 in a large-scale aggression to allegedly “limit Tehran’s nuclear and missile capabilities,” despite ongoing mediated talks between Washington and Tehran, which sought to de-escalate tensions through a potential deal.
The strikes also targeted senior leadership and government facilities, including the Leader of the Revolution and the Republic, Martyr Sayyed Ali Khamenei. US President Donald Trump later demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender”, which Iran categorically rejects.
It is worth noting that Iran had been engaged in indirect talks with the US and expressed hope for a deal that would resolve the nuclear issue peacefully. However, as reports indicated that a possible settlement was near, the aggression was launched.
Iranian Crisis Becomes Embarrassment for US Military That Can’t Protect Anyone – MidEast Analyst
Sputnik – 07.03.2026
Prior to the arrival of the United States, the Persian Gulf was essentially the domain of the British Empire which ended up handing over its holdings to the US to ensure that the latter would be at the forefront of any major war in the region, Middle East affairs expert Mais Kurbanov tells Sputnik.
Currently, the US controls a network of military installations that don’t just serve as military garrisons – these are all elements of a system of control of the Gulf ‘gas station,” Kurbanov remarks.
This defensive network was never meant to protect the Arab states of the Gulf – it’s real purpose was to protect Israel.
“This entire shield was created to keep Israel safe and to intercept missiles. They were more or less able to intercept them during the previous conflicts, before Iran started targeting their radars. And now they got nothing to intercept because Iran destroys the early warning system itself,” notes Kurbanov.
The US is unwilling and unable to defend the Gulf states – it only cares about its own interests. And all of the Gulf states besides Iran are now vulnerable because they don’t have any air defense systems, he adds. The US focuses on protecting only its own assets in the region.
“The US has embarrassed itself in front of the entire world. Everybody now knows that the Americans are no protectors,” says Kurbanov. “They used to mock Russia when Ukraine scored some hits, acting as if they are invincible. Now Iran keeps pummeling them, and US ships have to flee two thousand kilometers into the ocean to escape Iranian missiles.”
“It means the US has no meaningful air defense. Neither Israel’s Iron Dome nor the US’ vaunted Patriots can do anything. Consider this: such weapon system costs a billion dollars and an Iranian Shaheed, this dirt-cheap drone worth twenty thousand, just takes it out.”
All of the weapons the US peddled across the world – stealth aircraft, MQ-9 Reaper drones they were so proud of – turned out to be useless,” he points out.
Meanwhile, Iran keeps demonstrating the kind of new missiles that maybe two other leading world powers beside them possess.
“The US should just leave. There will be no negotiations with them and they know it,” argues Kurbanov.
Though the US does possess an extensive global network of military installations – several hundred facilities in dozens of different countries – even it cannot ensure an immediate stabilization of the situation. He points out that Russia and China haven’t yet become actively involved in the current crisis, and that without their involvement the US would be hard-pressed to deal with global issues.
Iran pledges to ‘respect sovereignty of neighbors’, declares US-Israel assets ‘primary targets’
The Cradle | March 7, 2026
The Iranian armed forces warned that US and Israeli military installations across the region remain legitimate targets, as officials seek to ease tensions with neighboring countries.
“Should the previous hostile actions continue, all military bases and interests of criminal America and the fake Zionist regime on land, at sea, and in the air across the region will be considered primary targets and will come under the powerful and crushing strikes of the mighty armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement on Saturday.
The warning came alongside a declaration by Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters that Iranian forces “respect the national interests and sovereignty of neighboring countries” and “have not carried out any act of aggression against them.”
Nevertheless, military officials emphasized that installations used by the US or Israel to launch attacks against Iran remain fair game. Lieutenant Colonel Ibrahim Zolfaghari said that at least 21 US personnel have been killed and many more injured in attacks on the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet infrastructure, while additional casualties occurred during strikes on Al-Dhafra Air Base.
He also said Iranian forces targeted a US-owned oil tanker in the northern Persian Gulf.
Earlier in the day, President Masoud Pezeshkian announced that Iran’s interim leadership council had ordered the armed forces to cease striking neighboring countries unless attacks originate from their territory.
“The temporary leadership council approved yesterday that neighboring countries should no longer be targeted and missiles should not be fired unless an attack on Iran originates from those countries,” Pezeshkian said in a pre-recorded address.
Pezeshkian’s statement was made amid increasing tensions over regional airspace with Iran’s neighboring countries.
Turkish authorities claimed this week that NATO missile defenses intercepted a ballistic projectile allegedly launched from Iran that crossed Iraqi and Syrian airspace before approaching the northwestern Syria-Turkiye border.
In Azerbaijan, officials accused Tehran of launching a drone attack that struck the Nakhchivan airport terminal, prompting President Ilham Aliyev to warn Iran “will regret it,” while Iranian authorities denied involvement.
Tehran vehemently denied involvement in either of these attacks.
Saudi journalist Adhwan al-Ahmari said in a recent interview with Asharq News that “not all attacks” targeting Gulf states come from Iran, warning the war could be “an American-Israeli trap to implicate the Gulf countries and draw them into a confrontation with Iran.”
Iranian officials told Middle East Eye (MEE) that some recent drone strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure were not carried out by Tehran, with one official describing the attack on Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura facility as “an Israeli effort to sabotage regional peace and alliances between neighbours.”
“I can categorically say that some of the attacks were not carried out by us [Iran],” the anonymous official told MEE.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman have all sustained strikes within their territories due to the presence of US assets within their borders.
Stanislav Krapivnik: Russia-Iran Cooperation & Escalation in Ukraine
Glenn Diesen | March 6, 2026
Stanislav Krapivnik is a former US Army officer, supply chain exec and military-political expert, now based in Russia. He was born in Lugansk during the Soviet times, migrated to the US as a child and served in the US army. Krapivnik discusses how Russia cooperates with Iran, and why the Iran War is creating immense pressure on Putin to escalate.
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‘Operation Epic Fury’ burns an estimated $5.82 billion in just 100 hours
MEMO | March 6, 2026
The first 100 hours of “Operation Epic Fury” have cost US forces at least an estimated $5.82 billion, or about 0.69% of the entire 2026 US defense budget, according to data compiled by Anadolu.
Anadolu estimates that the US spent $779 million in the first 24 hours of the operation. As operations have continued, the total operational cost of US offensives has tallied to approximately $3.3 billion, with figures from the Center for Strategic and International Studies showing a similar total.
In addition to operational costs, the US has lost significant military assets in Iran’s retaliatory strikes. According to estimates by Anadolu, the US has already lost roughly $2.52 billion.
US asset losses
The primary contributor to the losses is a US AN/FPS-132 early warning radar system at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, valued at $1.1 billion, which was struck by an Iranian missile on Saturday. Qatar confirmed that the radar was hit and damaged.
On Sunday, three F-15E Strike Eagles were lost in a friendly fire incident involving Kuwaiti air defenses. While all six aircrew survived, the planes did not — with the cost of replacing them estimated at $282 million.
US officials speaking to CBS News said that three MQ-9 Reaper Surveillance and Attack Drones belonging to the US Air Force have been downed so far, at an estimated cost of $90 million.
During its initial attack on Saturday, Iran struck the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, Bahrain, destroying two satellite communications terminals and several large buildings.
Open-source intelligence reports identified the targeted SATCOM terminals as AN/GSC-52Bs, with an estimated cost of $20 million, factoring in deployment and installation costs.
In addition to the SATCOM terminals lost in Bahrain, satellite imagery analyzed by the New York Times of Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, shows three more radomes destroyed, adding roughly $30 million in costs.
Since initial reports of a destroyed AN/TPY-2 radar component of the THAAD Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) System deployed at Al-Ruwais Industrial City in the United Arab Emirates, at least one other AN/TPY-2 system in Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan appears to have been destroyed. The damaged radar components are estimated to be worth $500 million each. There are also reports that another system has been hit in the UAE, however, there has been no official confirmation or satellite imagery to support this claim.
Altogether, Iran has damaged an estimated $2.52 billion worth of US military assets in the region.
US offensive costs
According to analysis by the CSIS, Anadolu’s initial estimate of $779 million appears to represent roughly a daily expenditure for US forces.
CSIS estimates it will cost $3.1 billion to replenish the US munitions inventory on a like-for-like basis for the first 100 hours, with the costs increasing by $758.1 million per day.
As the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford remain in the region with their contingent of destroyers and littoral combat ships, they continue to expend an estimated $15 million a day.
US defensive systems were also heavily used to intercept Iranian attacks. According to estimates by the Payne Institute, the US has fired approximately 180 SM-2/SM-3/SM-6 naval interceptors, 90 Patriot PAC-2/PAC-3 missiles, and 40 THAAD interceptors.
During many years of contacts with Iran, the IAEA has never found grounds to refuse negotiations on Iranian nuclear program, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.