Attempts by France & Germany to Negotiate With Russia Should Be Prevented, Bolton Tells Pranksters
By Andrei Dergalin – Sputnik – 02.02.2023
John Bolton shared his thoughts on topics such as the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the West and the prospects of Ukraine’s NATO membership with Vovan and Lexus.
Former US presidential advisor John Bolton has made some rather frank admissions during a phone conversation with whom he thought was the ex-president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko.
Alas, his interlocutor turned out to be the well-known Russian prankster duo known as Vovan and Lexus, who promptly spilled the beans online.
During the chat, Bolton apparently insisted that all attempts by Germany or France to hold negotiations with Russia amid the current crisis in Ukraine should be disrupted, and claimed that the sooner Ukraine and Georgia become members of NATO, the better.
Regarding the sanctions imposed by western powers against Russia, Bolton complained that they weren’t enough and that Moscow continues to bypass these punitive measures.
He also commented on the promise made over three decades ago by former US Secretary of State James Baker to the former leader of the USSR Mikhail Gorbachev regarding NATO not expanding to the east, claiming that Baker merely “launched into arguments and looked for ways to avoid confrontation,” as the pranksters put it.
Russia ramps up global food exports
RT | February 3, 2023
Russia’s food exports jumped by 12% in monetary terms last year to more than 70 million tons, despite difficulties caused by Western sanctions, the country’s Ministry of Agriculture reported on Thursday.
The ministry highlighted that domestic agricultural products had been supplied to 150 countries, emphasizing that Russia’s contribution to world food security is constantly growing.
According to the latest report, exports of oil and fat products soared by 26%, meat and dairy products rose by 16%, and grain exports increased by 14%.
The ministry also noted good results in its work on reorienting export flows, building new logistics chains, and financial transactions, as well as facilitating conditions for providing state support. “This will help to further increase exports to priority markets,” it concluded on its Telegram channel.
Western sanctions imposed on Russia have been disrupting the country’s food supplies to the world market, threatening to exacerbate the global food crisis.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that, despite the obstacles, Russia remains ready to help poor nations battle hunger, providing them with the “necessary assistance.”
Latest IMF data shows Russia outperforming Germany and UK
By Drago Bosnic | February 3, 2023
After the US-led political West imposed the most comprehensive sanctions in recorded history in an attempt to destroy the Russian economy, the most sanctioned country on the planet was expected to be isolated, economically devastated, with no access to high technologies of any kind and, most preferably, with an extremely angry populace, potentially causing protests and eventually a coup that would bring down the Russian government and bring about the “free and democratic” (i.e. compliant) Yeltsin-style puppet regime. And yet, despite nearly a year of this unprecedented economic siege, the Russian economy isn’t only still standing, but it’s even growing.
Russia’s trade exchange with the world is surging (by dozens of times in some cases) and, according to the latest data by the International Monetary Fund, it’s now expected to outperform both the United Kingdom and Germany, two of the leading European economies. The goal of making the Russian people quite angry was accomplished however – the Russians are furious at the political West and stand united in a way not seen since the Second World War, making the idea of a pro-Western coup in Moscow a perpetual pipe dream of the political elites in Washington DC and Brussels. Worse yet, if a coup ever happens, it would only bring more anti-Western political parties to power.
At first, the effects indeed seemed catastrophic for the Russian economy, with the ruble apparently in free fall and the stock market effectively shut down. However, after initially losing over 40% of its value, the embattled Russian currency didn’t just rebound, but also gained momentum and reached values higher than those before the start of Russia’s counteroffensive. And now, the latest IMF forecast predicts that Russian economic growth will outperform that of Germany, while the UK will go through a recession, as its economy was at its worst in over 300 years and is expected to perform even worse this year.
The prediction would have been nearly impossible to imagine less than a year ago and would have surely caused a roar of laughter in the mainstream media. In early March last year, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen boasted that “the Russian economy will be devastated.” The Russian government itself also expected a dramatic GDP contraction, with the finance ministry reportedly gearing up for at least a 10% decline. Even in December, many leading economists expected the GDP fall in 2023 to be 2.5%. And yet, the Russian economy fell by 2.2% in 2022 and is expected to grow at least 0.3% this year and 2.1% in 2024. The numbers indicate that the UK is in a recession and is expected to have a 0.6% GDP fall, while Germany will barely stay afloat with a 0.1% growth.
The sanctions were designed to cut off Russia from the international financial system by essentially stealing hundreds of billions of dollars of its foreign exchange assets, making it virtually impossible for Moscow to do business with basically anyone. Or so it seemed. However, what eventually happened was nearly a complete dedollarization of Russia’s trade exchange, as the Eurasian giant simply switched to trading in the domestic currencies of its international partners, including China and India. This made it possible for Russia’s industry to not only maintain its existing production level in the first 10 months of last year (officially it was down by a paltry 0.1%), but to even start growing in November and December. It’s expected to grow even more in 2023.
Additionally, Russia is home to many of the world’s most essential commodities, such as oil and natural gas. Moscow continues to hold dominant positions in global markets, including being the leading exporter of fertilizer and food. The world simply cannot afford to ignore Russia and there’s no indicator that it even wants to, despite the political West’s frenzied attempts to portray Moscow as the supposed “international pariah”. More than 80% of the planet not only continues to work with Russia, but is actively expanding its cooperation with the superpower. And while the political West is effectively trying to impose an oil and gas embargo on itself by sanctioning Moscow, giants such as China and India are increasing their Russian energy imports.
According to Bloomberg, India was importing 1.2 million barrels of Russian oil per day in 2022, an increase of 33 times in comparison to 2021. This is also expected to grow in 2023. Turkey, one of NATO’s leading members, also continues to expand its trade relations with Russia. In December, it imported 213,000 barrels of Russian diesel per day, a record amount in the last 7 years. Ankara also used the opportunity that many Western companies were forced by their governments to leave, so its export to Russia doubled, surpassing $1.3 billion. Imports from China increased substantially as their companies also filled the gaps left by their Western counterparts.
Despite all of its Russophobic posturing, the European Union also spent more than $150 billion on buying Russian fossil fuels in 2022. The EU’s suicidal anti-Russian sanctions caused a surge in energy costs, which hit both Germany and the UK, causing an exponential increase in inflation and severely undermining the purchasing power of hundreds of millions of regular Europeans. The latest data shows that retail sales in Germany fell sharply in the last two months of 2022, despite expectations of a slight increase due to Christmas and New Year. While economists expected sales to increase by at least 0.2%, what actually happened was a dramatic 5.3% fall.
The UK has been hit the hardest as inflation, mostly fueled by food and energy price spikes, has a detrimental effect on the cost of living. This also caused unprecedented political instability in London, with two prime ministers resigning in mere months, all with starkly different economic and fiscal policies, resulting in near complete chaos in the UK markets.
In contrast to this, Russia not only withstood the hammer of the political West’s sanctions war, but it’s now hitting back and Western economies are certainly feeling the bite. All the while, the Eurasian giant also continues to conduct its counteroffensive against NATO aggression in Europe and is now in the midst of preparations for a final push that could end the Ukraine crisis.
Drago Bosnic is an independent geopolitical and military analyst.
George Soros is either prophetic or pulls a lot of strings
By Tony Cox | RT | February 2, 2023
George Soros is either stunningly prescient or frighteningly influential when it comes to determining who will need to do all the bleeding and dying that he deems necessary to bring about a desirable “new world order.”
Consider the Hungarian-born billionaire’s essay on the future of NATO: “The United States would not be called upon to act as the policeman of the world. When it acts, it would act in conjunction with others. Incidentally, the combination of manpower from Eastern Europe with the technical capabilities of NATO would greatly enhance the military potential of the partnership because it would reduce the risk of body bags for NATO countries, which is the main constraint on their willingness to act. This is a viable alternative to the looming world disorder.”
Soros deserves credit for neatly describing the US and NATO strategy for bringing about and exploiting the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Ukrainians are providing the manpower – in other words, the cannon fodder – and the Western puppeteers can endeavor to weaken Russia and enforce their vision of a favorable world order. They also can do this without having to make the case to their citizens that this is a fight for which it is worth tolerating body bags coming home from the front.
Additionally, by sharing the burden of providing military and economic aid to Kiev, the Western powers achieve the dual benefits of prolonging their proxy war and creating the impression that the whole world is steadfastly standing with the blue and yellow. That helps underpin the narrative frame that there is no moral basis for criticizing Ukraine policy and anyone who does so is probably a Kremlin agent.
The thing is, Soros didn’t write his take on the situation this week, this month or even in the past year. He didn’t even write it back in 2014, when he was allegedly backing the overthrow of Ukraine’s elected government and might have reasonably anticipated a coming conflict with Russia. No, Soros wrote this assessment in 1993, nearly 30 years ago.
Back then, in the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse, Soros wanted to prevent former Soviet states and Warsaw Pact nations from becoming nationalist countries that would be governed according to their own interests and oppose the global order that he was promoting.
Western leaders had made assurances that NATO wouldn’t expand eastward, but Soros saw the military bloc as “the basis of a new world order.” He conceded that the group would need “some profound new thinking,” given that its original mission was “obsolete,” and he insisted that the alliance must be free to invite any country to join.
In fact, he saw a great opportunity for NATO to take advantage of the security void created by the Soviet collapse if it could act quickly. “If NATO has any mission at all, it is to project its power and influence into the region, and the mission is best defined in terms of open and closed societies.”
“The countries of Central Europe are clamoring for full membership of NATO as soon as possible, preferably before Russia recovers. Russia objects, not because it harbors any designs on its former empire but because it sees no advantage in consenting. Its national pride has been hurt and it is sick and tired of making concessions without corresponding benefits.”
Soros saw NATO as both a viable platform to develop into the anti-Russia enforcer for his new world order and the bright and shiny object to lure Europe’s former Eastern Bloc states into the fold. “NATO has a unified command structure which brings together the United States and Western Europe,” he said.
“There are great advantages in having such a strong Western pillar: It leads to a lopsided structure firmly rooted in the West. This is as it should be, since the goal is to reinforce and gratify the desire of the region for joining the open society of the West.”
The goal became reality. For example, Soros noted that there was nothing to prevent countries such as Poland, Czechia and Hungary from joining NATO. The three nations became the first wave of NATO’s post-Cold War expansion, joining the bloc in 1999. In fact, the bloc has since nearly doubled in size, adding 14 members by 2020 and teeing up Ukraine and Georgia as future prospects.
NATO moved right along the Russian frontier, placing strategic weapons and security guarantees on Moscow’s doorstep and helping to trigger the current crisis. As Soros acknowledged in 1993, Russia had no desire to restore the empire of Peter the Great – contrary to a popular CNN talking point. However, as the Kremlin warned repeatedly in the years leading up to the current conflict, Moscow couldn’t stand idly by while its national security interests were trampled.
It’s easy to see why Soros was and is so worried about nationalism: His vision could never sell with a government that served the interests of its own people.
NATO’s expansion binge didn’t make anyone safer. We know the little brothers, like the people of Ukraine, aren’t better off. They have the privilege of bleeding and dying as they provide the “manpower” for NATO’s proxy fight with Russia. As for the big brothers, they undermine their own security. Americans and Western Europeans are suffering the economic effects of the US-NATO sanctions war against Russia, and their governments are pushing them ever closer to a planet-ending nuclear Armageddon.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced last week that its Doomsday Clock had advanced to within 90 seconds of midnight, the latest ever, indicating that humanity stands at “a time of unprecedented danger.” The group cited the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has “challenged the nuclear order – the system of agreements and understandings that have been constructed over six decades to limit the dangers of nuclear weapons.”
Not to worry if you’re George Soros, 92 years old, and watching your geopolitical dreams come true. He and others like him can keep marching onward to perfect their world order as they see fit.
If we wonder whether NATO works on behalf of that order, we need look only at what has transpired and the framing of the current conflict. When Russian forces began their offensive against Ukraine last February, Western leaders and pundits condemned President Vladimir Putin for undermining the “rules-based international order.”
So NATO has emerged as the enforcer of the rules-based international order – the new world order, if you will – just as Soros called for three decades ago. The results of that “profound new thinking” are much the same as the political activist envisioned in 1993. He also called for expanding NATO to Asia, which hasn’t yet happened, but the bloc’s 2022 summit was enlarged to include representatives from Asia-Pacific “sentinel states” – Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
Was Soros so much of a visionary that the hedge-fund investor could foresee how geopolitics would play out several decades ahead of time, or does his accuracy reflect the fact that he and his allies tend to get their way? Rather than prescience, is this situation more like the cook being a good predictor of what we’re going to have for dinner?
Soros himself offered a hint on that theory in his essay: “We have to act without full knowledge of the facts because the facts are created by our decisions.”
Anyone who suggests that Soros calls a lot of the policy shots is immediately condemned by the Western media as anti-Semitic because, after all, he has Jewish heritage. Never mind that he’s an avowed atheist who has been accused of undermining Israel’s democratically elected government and funding groups that defame the Jewish state.
So when Moldovan President Maia Sandu returns from a recent trip to Davos and promptly starts hinting about joining NATO – in violation of her country’s constitutional commitment to neutrality – we shouldn’t point out that she met with Alexander Soros, son of George Soros, during the summit. Revealing or trying to connect such dots would be anti-Semitic, according to the Western media.
It couldn’t be that George Soros wields an inordinate amount of influence over world affairs. It couldn’t be that some of his critics have legitimate and unbigoted disagreements with his ideas. It couldn’t be that his immunity to criticism is further evidence of his power.
And shut your eyes when a US watchdog group reveals that Soros has financial ties to at least 253 media organizations worldwide and funding links to 54 prominent media figures, including such names as Christiane Amanpour of CNN, Lester Holt of NBC News and Washington Post executive editor Sally Buzbee.
So Soros gets to wield his influence with impunity, apparently achieving what he wants in many cases. He gets to serve the interests of billionaires, defense contractors, power-mongering politicians and social engineers. But what about the rest of us, the other 8 billion people in the world? What about those who just want to be able to support our families, pursue happiness and live in peace – without worrying that iodine pills are sold out and there might not be time to build a nuclear fallout shelter?
Soros himself might prescribe us more bread and circuses, to keep the masses distracted – as well as tribalism, to keep the people divided – at least until we’re needed to serve as “manpower” for the cause.
Tony Cox is a US journalist who has written or edited for Bloomberg and several major daily newspapers.
Large-scale Russian combat actions in Ukraine expected in February
By Lucas Leiroz | February 2, 2023
A new wave of activity is expected for the Russian special military operation during February. The recent changes in the command of the operation appear to have been carefully planned in order to elevate the combat to a new level and several of Moscow’s strategic objectives may soon be achieved, radically changing the course of the conflict.
According to information provided by Russian military, a major offensive is being prepared for the period between February and early March. The informants say that the objectives will be:
1. Reaching the borders of the regions recently reintegrated into the Russian Federation, pacifying the new oblasts;
2. capturing Nikolaev, Odessa, as well as the entire Black Sea coast, reaching Transnistria;
3. seizing Kiev, forcing a political capitulation of the neo-Nazi regime until early March.
The territory of Belarus will become the main springboard for the upcoming strike. Mobilized Russian servicemen are being trained in training camps in Belarus, where heavy military equipment and combat aircraft are concentrated. A large bombardment force is in readiness for action. Also, Russian forces in Belarus have been collecting strategic information on the location of Ukrainian units, mainly about Kiev’s air defense, gathering intelligence data that will be used to plan the attacks.
In parallel to Belarus, Zaporozhye and Lugansk are also key zones for the Russian strategy. It is expected that massive attacks will come from these regions during the offensive, destroying enemy units in a short period of time which will allow a rapid Russian advance on the battlefield, reaching the zones listed in the above-mentioned objectives.
Sources also report that for the offensive to be successful Russian forces will focus on blocking all enemy’s supply lines. The main route of arrival of supplies to Ukraine is the border with Poland, where there is the transit of NATO’s ammunition and military equipment.
In fact, the battlefield conditions seem favorable for these objectives to be achieved. The Ukrainian forces are currently exhausted and weak. On the other hand, the mobilized Russian soldiers are fully prepared to engage in high-intensity combats. In addition, Russian artillery positions in Belarus and in the liberated territories have a privileged location, which significantly increases the chances of victory in the coming offensive.
Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, was promoted to the position of Commander of the Joint Forces of the Russian Federation in the Special Military Operation Zone. Gerasimov’s arrival to power seems to have been a move towards the final stage of the special military operation.
His predecessor, General Surovikin played an important role while in command. A veteran of Chechnya and Syria and having extensive experience in counterterrorism, Surovikin was appointed to the post at a time when Ukrainian terrorist actions were on the rise. He fulfilled the goal of neutralizing the enemy’s offensive potential with his strong actions on the Ukrainian critical infrastructure, at the same time that he saved thousands of Russian lives with his policy of avoiding trench warfare and prioritizing long-distance bombing. Now, however, the special military operation needs a new direction.
And this was the main reason for the appointment of Valery Gerasimov. As Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, he is undoubtedly the most prestigious Russian officer and therefore the right man to lead the operation’s most decisive moves. The objective now is no longer to break the enemy’s offensive potential, but to force Kiev’s neo-Nazi regime into capitulation through a huge offensive.
After so many Russian attempts to negotiate a peaceful resolution, with the Ukrainian government ignoring them and insisting on an irresponsible military campaign, now there seems to be no other possible end to the conflict than a Russian offensive strong enough to liberate the entire Ukrainian coastline and capture Kiev.
Lucas Leiroz is a researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant.
Scholtz failed to secure support for Ukraine on his tour of South America
By Ahmed Adel | February 2, 2023
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s trip to Argentina, Brazil and Chile was with the aim of involving them in the Ukraine conflict and to create a regional counterweight to China’s growing influence. These are similar actions already made by the US in South America and one that we can also expect from other European powers.
Scholz’s visit is an attempt to restore influence in a region that has been empowered by China and Russia to forge an independent path that is not under the umbrella of the “Monroe Doctrine.” It is not a coincidence that the German Chancellor visited the region just days after the Summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), at which member states sought to strengthen regional integration in the context of Western powers attempting to prevent Latin America from strengthening relations with Russia and China.
Behind Scholz’s visit was the fact that China has become very close to Latin America. Therefore, it is in Berlin’s interest to note this competition between the Great Powers in South America and follow the trends that are emerging in the region rather than just behave as Washington’s representative.
It cannot be overlooked that South America, especially Chile, has large lithium reserves. Scholz’s visit is a form of US and European effort to effectively make the Chilean economy work in their own interest, as was the case when the US installed Augusto Pinochet as dictator in 1973.
The West’s imperial attitude of previous centuries remains the same, but, now with China’s thirst for resources, South American countries are finding a way out from the grasp of US hegemony. It is reminded, for example, that Chile’s main copper export partner today is China and not the US.
Both Washington and Berlin want major Latin American countries, like Chile, to ratify commercial, diplomatic, and political relations with the West so that they are not absorbed into China’s sphere of influence. This is an endeavour that will take many years to undergo because China is already entrenched in the region, something that is problematic for Germany as they need immediate solutions to the self-imposed energy crisis caused by sanctions on Russia.
Germany’s own self-destructive policies made it show an interest in a region that it never traditionally did. If the war in Ukraine was not occurring, it is more than likely that Berlin would not be in a hurry to forge new relationships for alternative energy sources. The issue is that Germany wants to impose its own liberal ideology over Latin America as a condition for trade, which means a cut in trade and relations with China and Russia.
South America is not only an important source of resources, but is a major region that refuses to cut trade and diplomatic relations with Russia. Whatever anticipation or expectation Scholz had on his trip were quickly dashed as he did not find the response he was expecting from his Latin American counterparts. The positions of the leaders of Argentina, Brazil and Chile reflects the fact that these governments know how to distinguish economic cooperation from political dependence.
Involving Latin America in the Ukraine conflict is something that will face widespread rejection. For example, although new Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva “emphatically deplored Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and annexation of parts of its territory as flagrant violations of international law” in a joint statement released with Scholtz on January 30, his government’s policies towards Russia have not deviated far from his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro.
However, Lula also confirmed that Brazil would not provide ammunition to Ukraine for German-made Gepard anti-aircraft guns, as reportedly requested by Berlin, and insinuated that Ukraine was not seeking peace. Effectively, Lula is happy to pay lip service to the West but will not take any concrete action in matters related to the war in Ukraine.
In the same light, Argentina and Chile’s leaders also ended any German hope that they might lend support for Ukraine despite the fact that they were happy to condemn Russia’s military operation as an “invasion”. On his Latin America tour, Scholz wanted to demonstrate that international unity against Russia extends beyond the Western World, but only managed to secure some statements that are unlikely to damage relations with Moscow.
For his part, Lula said Brazil will work with other countries to help achieve peace in Ukraine as his country has not taken sides – something objectively true despite some damning rhetoric. In fact, likely to the annoyance of the German Chancellor, Lula said that China has an important role to play in peace talks, which he said he will discuss on a planned visit to Beijing in March.
It can be said that although Scholz’s trip can serve as a foundation for German-South American relations, his main goals – to secure support for Ukraine and to make advances in the resource industry only found limited success. Although he secured some rhetoric against Russia, he could not secure any material support for Ukraine. At the same time, although Germany has pitched its entry into the resource market, there is no guarantee that it will come to fruition or even challenge China’s dominance in the region.
Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.
Russia hits back at US over nuclear arms treaty accusations
RT | February 1, 2023
Russia’s ambassador to the US has dismissed Washington’s claims that Moscow is violating the last remaining nuclear agreement between the two countries. In an interview with RIA Novosti on Wednesday, Anatoly Antonov branded the accusations “sensational,” insisting that Russia has always impeccably observed the provisions of the New START treaty.
The US State Department submitted a report to Congress on Tuesday in which for the first time it accused Moscow of breaching the terms of the agreement. Specifically, the report claimed that Russian officials had rejected American requests for on-site weapons inspections and compliance talks.
Responding to the accusations, Antonov said it was Washington that had violated the accords by “illegitimately” withdrawing more than a hundred strategic weapons from accountability under the treaty.
“These actions concern the central limits of New START, undermining the key goal of the agreement – to maintain the balance of the parties’ strategic offensive arms,” the ambassador said.
As for the claims that Moscow has refused on-site inspections and postponed the next session of the Bilateral Consultative Commission, the diplomat stated that the US was trying to shift the blame and was refusing to see the root causes of the current predicament.
“We have repeatedly pointed out to Washington that the situation around START is a direct result of the hybrid war unleashed by the West against our country,” Antonov said.
“We warned them that arms control could not be isolated from geopolitical realities. In the current conditions, we consider it unjustified, untimely, and inappropriate to invite the US military to our strategic facilities.”
The ambassador stressed that Russia remains committed to the treaty and sees it as a “useful tool” in ensuring predictability in relations between major nuclear powers. However, he insisted that unless the US reconsiders its insistence on attempting to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, any advances in the field of arms control are impossible.
The New START treaty was originally signed by then-Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev in 2010 and aimed to halve the number of strategic nuclear missile launchers deployed around the world. Unless extended, the treaty is set to expire in 2026, which the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has warned could trigger a nuclear arms race.
US to arm Ukraine with ‘longer-range’ missiles
RT | February 1, 2023
President Joe Biden’s administration has reportedly decided to send longer-range rockets to Ukraine, giving Kiev’s forces the capability to hit targets farther behind the frontlines, just as a top Ukrainian intelligence official threatened more strikes deeper inside Russia.
The gift of Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) rocket artillery munitions with a range of 150 kilometers (94 miles) will be part of an upcoming military aid package for Ukraine valued at more than $2 billion, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing two unidentified US officials familiar with the plans. The package will also include additional Javelin anti-tank weapons, mine-resistant vehicles, multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS), and support equipment for Patriot air defense systems.
The GLSDB rockets will give Ukrainian forces further reach, nearly doubling the range of the MLRS and HIMARS munitions that Washington and its NATO allies have previously been provided. Biden had been reluctant to send weaponry that could strike Russian soil, risking escalation into a wider conflict with Moscow, but he has authorized increasingly provocative aid in recent weeks.
Washington approved plans to send M1 Abrams tanks to Kiev last week, even after Biden initially claimed back in March that the US wouldn’t provide tanks or planes saying, “That’s called World War III.” While the US-made tanks are expected to be delivered to Ukraine by the end of this year or even in 2024, the first batch of previously approved 60 Bradley Fighting Vehicles is already en route, US Transportation Command confirmed on Monday.
The GLSDB is being developed by US defense contractor Boeing Co. under plans to quickly get new weapons into production for Kiev. It combines the GBU-39 small diameter bomb with the M26 rocket motor, both of which can be drawn from existing US weapons stocks. Washington will reportedly stop short of fulfilling Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s oft-repeated requests for the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which has a range of some 300 kilometers, double the GLSDB’s reach.
While US officials have claimed that they don’t intend for weapons given to Ukraine to be used for strikes into Russian territory, Kiev’s forces appear to have no compunction about such attacks. US State Department spokesman Ned Price reiterated Washington’s stance earlier this month that Kiev is free to select its own targets, including in Crimea, which he claimed is still Ukrainian territory.
Ukrainian intelligence chief Kirill Budanov vowed on Tuesday that “until the territorial integrity of Ukraine is restored, there will be problems inside Russia.” He also said Kiev aims to retake Crimea by this summer.
The Kremlin has insisted that any threats to Russian territory, including Crimea and the territories that voted to join Russia in September, will result in the use of “more powerful weapons” by Moscow. Duma chairman Vyacheslav Volodin warned earlier this month of possible “global tragedy” for humanity if Western nations continue to provide weapons that Kiev could use to strike civilian cities and attempt to seize Russian territories.
Croatia’s President Doesn’t Want Be West’s ‘Circus Poodle’ in Ukraine Crisis
By Ilya Tsukanov – Sputnik – 31.01.2023
The Croatian head of state took flak from Zagreb’s NATO and EU allies last year after threatening to block Finland and Sweden’s NATO applications for membership, but was overruled by parliament, which ratified the accession protocols in July.
Croatian President Zoran Milanovic sparked a fresh rift with Brussels and Kiev after assuring that Crimea will inevitably remain part of Russia, and blasting the West’s “manic” desire to try to collapse Russia or institute regime change in the country.
“Between 2014 and 2022, we watched as someone provoked Russia with the intention of starting this conflict,” Milanovic told reporters Monday while discussing last week’s decision to send German tanks to Ukraine, referring to the 2014 US-backed Euromaidan coup in Kiev.
“What we are doing as the collective West is deeply immoral. German tanks will only unite Russia and China even more. My job as president is to get away from this, and not be a circus poodle. Any involvement in this [crisis] is extremely dangerous,” he said.
Warning that the tank deliveries would only prolong a pointless conflict, Milanovic said he is “against sending any lethal arms there” because as a nuclear power Russia cannot not be defeated.
“Russia has 6,000 nuclear warheads. What is the goal [of the Ukraine conflict – ed.note]? The disintegration of Russia? A change of power? They are talking about ripping Russia apart. It’s manic. The Serbs and I hated each other less. It was a much more terrible war in our country than in Ukraine,” the Croatian president said, recalling the Western-instigated Slav-on-Slav bloodshed of the 1990s in Yugoslavia.
Stressing that “leading German generals are saying” that Crimea will “never be Ukraine again,” Milanovic urged the West to get off its high horse in talking about Russia “annexing” the Black Sea peninsula, and pointed out that Kosovo was “annexed” and “stolen” from Serbia by the West.
“Who annexed Kosovo? The international community, including us,” he said. “It was taken from Serbia by force, it was extraction, a part of Serbian territory was taken away.”
‘It’s Armageddon’
Milanovic expressed fears that “deranged emotions and hatred are leading Europe to great danger” amid the prospects of a full-on war with Russia. “The question is not how much we help Ukraine. This is not help, this is torture. They should have been forced to sit down at the negotiating table. 300,000 Ukrainians should die [to end the conflict?, ed.note]. It hurts my heart, as I’m watching this – it’s Armageddon.”
Milanovic’s remarks sparked outrage from Kosovo and Albania, while a Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman called them “unacceptable” for “calling into question the territorial integrity of Ukraine.” The spokesman also expressed appreciation for the “steadfast support” Croatia has provided, notwithstanding the president’s sentiments.
Milanovic rivals his Serbian neighbors when it comes to outspoken criticism of NATO and EU policy amid the Ukraine conflict – with the difference being that Croatia is actually part of both Western-dominated institutions. The politician has spoken out repeatedly against Zagreb getting involved, and expressed doubts about the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Moscow, recently calling them “total nonsense.”
Milanovic’s rhetoric has not been matched by actual Croatian government policy, with the government of Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic towing the NATO and EU line and taking one of the toughest anti-Russian stances in the Western Balkans. The Croatian presidency is largely a ceremonial role, although nominally it is supposed to provide for cooperation on conducting foreign policy.
Amount of frozen Russian investments revealed
RT | January 31, 2023
Nearly $81 billion in funds belonging to Russian investors have been blocked by Western financial institutions, according to estimates by the Bank of Russia revealed on Tuesday.
As of November 30, the volume of frozen assets held at Western financial institutions totaled 5.7 trillion rubles ($80.8 billion). More than 20% of these funds are owned by retail investors, the regulator pointed out.
Last year, in an effort to minimize risks and protect investors, the Russian central bank banned brokers from executing trades for unqualified investors to purchase securities from so-called ‘unfriendly’ countries. The regulator has also imposed retaliatory restrictions on assets under Russia’s jurisdiction owned by nonresidents.
Speaking at a conference on the global challenges facing Russian financial markets, the head of the central bank’s investment department, Olga Shishlyannikova, stated her view that the frozen asset “story” is “very complicated” and that it will continue to have a negative impact on investors.
However, some solutions have been implemented, she noted. For example, direct payments of income from Russian securities trading in foreign markets to Russian investors were allowed.
Also, under a scheme introduced last year, Russian companies are able to issue local ‘replacement’ bonds with settlement in rubles to replace outstanding Eurobonds, a type of bond denominated in foreign currency. Russian issuers have experienced major difficulties servicing these bonds in light of Western sanctions.
“If all Russian Eurobonds are replaced, then retail investors will be able to withdraw more than 50% of their assets and start making use of those funds,” Shishlyannikova explained.
The rest of the assets are foreign securities from foreign issuers that have no direct connection with the Russian economy, she added.
Last September, Russia’s National Settlement Depository applied to the finance ministries of Belgium and Luxembourg for general licenses in order to unlock the frozen assets. In December, a general license was issued to release certain frozen funds and economic resources belonging to non-sanctioned Russian investors. However, the Bank of Russia assessed the chances of Western countries returning Russian assets as “extremely low” despite the fact that they haven’t been legally confiscated.
Plan to blockade Russian shipping in Baltic Sea breaks international law and could provoke war
By Ahmed Adel | January 31, 2023
Western intentions to arm Estonia with the most modern types of conventional weapons which can target Saint Petersburg, as well as the installation of a medium-range anti-missile defence system, suggests that the Baltic country is wanting to challenge Russia despite its military barely even having enough professional soldiers to field a single battalion. At the same time, and just as provocative, Estonian authorities discussed an introduction of a 24 nautical mile coastal zone in the Gulf of Finland to limit the navigation of Russian ships.
It is demonstrated that Estonia is a highly active anti-Russian state that hopes its actions will receive Western tributes and rewards. However, in pursuing this goal, the Baltic country is going as far as wanting to break international law by restricting Russian shipping in waters it has a right to navigate through.
Moscow has repeatedly warned that attempts to deploy offensive NATO weapons will immediately provoke retaliatory steps. By Estonia wanting to place weapon systems that can target Russia’s second largest city, it cannot be discounted that the Russian military will deploy the Iskander system or another type of weapon to completely cover Estonia’s sea, land and air territory.
It is recalled that Lithuania attempted to blockade the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad in 2022 by stopping rail and road transportation and attempted to justify the action because of the EU’s sanctions regime. This quickly failed as a military and economic blockade can lead to a ‘casus belli’ – a reason for war, which would not insure Lithuania under NATO’s “mutual defence” article.
Larger European NATO countries are rotating their units, as well as military equipment, including aviation and F-16 fighter jets, in the Baltic countries. The Baltic countries are full of foreign soldiers and equipment as they themselves cannot ensure their own security despite implementing policies that are extremely provocative and hostile to Russia.
The Russian ambassador in Tallinn, Vladimir Lipayev, who disclosed that Western countries plan to supply Estonia with the most modern types of conventional weapons, also said that the Anglos had an interest in creating an anti-Russian outpost in the Baltic country in order to carry out economic, political, cultural and military pressure on Russia.
However, the Baltic countries are playing with fire as the Ukraine war has demonstrated that Russia is capable of demilitarizing hostile states. Even Ukraine, which has all the resources of the West behind it and the second largest army in Europe after Russia, is failing to stem back the tide of war and territorial loss.
With the Ukrainian military appearing to be on course for an imminent collapse in 2023, the US and UK are escalating tensions so that continuous conflict can drain Russia’s resources and attention. An internationalized effort to involve as many countries as possible in a confrontation with Russia only puts countries under a puppet status at risk of Russian retaliation, as Ukraine shows.
As said, if Estonia were to blockade Russian ships, it cannot be protected under NATO’s Article 5 as it initiated the hostility by breaking international law. Understandably, the leading countries of the EU do not want to be exposed to a Russian counterattack, which is why the Baltics and Poland are being used as cannon fodder instead – just as Ukraine currently is.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, a dividing line in the middle of the Gulf of Finland was agreed upon between Russia and newly independent Estonia. From this middle line, Finland and Estonia retreated three kilometres to allow Russia a six-kilometre channel for the free passage of Russian merchant and military fleets, thus actually making these international waters. In order to blockade Russia in the Gulf of Finland, it is necessary for Finland to implement the same policy. If Tallin unilaterally introduces such a zone in its territorial waters, then Russia has the option to use the Finnish part of the gulf.
For now, there is no indication that Finland plans to block Russian ships. If Finland and Estonia were to block Russian shipping, Moscow would have a strong case to appeal to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, something that would surely humiliate a country like Finland which likes to pride itself on supposedly adhering to international law very strictly.
Therefore, although the Estonian side may be enthusiastic in enforcing anti-Russian measures on the encouragement of Anglo countries, there is a likelihood that regional countries like Finland and Germany will not want a new front of tensions with Russia and will attempt to coerce the Baltic country to moderate its attitude.
Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.
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From the Archives
Politicians lie
By Mazin Qumsiyeh | Popular Resistance | August 18, 2013
There is no way to say this truth nicely: Politicians lie. That includes Japanese, American, Egyptian, Israeli, and Palestinian politicians! Is there something more common sense than that? Yet, so many citizens around the world believe their own politicians or wistfully acknowledge lies but think it is part of the job needed to run things. They believe even when politicians contradict themselves blatantly. This phenomenon is rather remarkable. It is a dissonance and disconnect from reality that many seem oblivious to. It is very dangerous because it can lead to accepting rationales for going to war. These can be deadly wars that lead to millions of lives lost as happened in what was called World War 1 and WW2. Even when incredible and declassified evidence abound, politicians continue to lie and old mythologies refuse to die. Here are just a few of the countless lies told to us over the past few decades… continue
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