Who is Massad Boulos, Tapped as Trump’s Advisor on Arab, Middle Eastern Affairs?
By Svetlana Ekimenko – Sputnik – 02.12.2024
Donald Trump lauded Massad Boulos as a “highly respected leader in the business world, with extensive experience on the International scene” in a post on his social media platform Truth Social on Sunday.
US President-elect Donald Trump has announced Massad Boulos as his pick for the position of senior advisor on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs.
Who is Massad Boulos?
Boulos is a Lebanese American businessman who is also father-in-law to Trump’s daughter, Tiffany.
Boulos helped Trump win back the swing state of Michigan by flipping Arab American voters frustrated with Joe Biden’s policies supporting Israel in its war on Hamas in Gaza and on Hezbollah in Lebanon, campaign officials told Reuters.
He assured Arab Americans during the election campaign that Trump was committed to ending the wars in the Middle East.
“Let’s move to peace, and let’s move to rebuilding Gaza and rebuilding Lebanon,” Boulos told Sky News in October, adding:
“We want Gaza to be prosperous. We want the Palestinian people to be prosperous, to live in peace, to live in harmony, side by side with the Israelis and full security on both sides.”
Trump’s in-law has ties to various factions in Lebanese politics, including the Free Patriotic Movement (Christian party aligned with Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah), and the Lebanese Forces Party, according to media reports.
He is familiar with Suleiman Frangieh, leader of the Christian Marada Movement and a candidate for Hezbollah’s faction in the 2022-2024 Lebanese presidential election, Reuters noted.
Massad Boulos, who has acted as a go-between for Trump and Mahmoud Abbas in the past, met with the Palestinian leader on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September, a senior Palestinian official told The Times of Israel. Abbas reportedly voiced willingness to work with Trump to reach a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Boulos has friends who are close to Syria’s President Bashar Al-Assad, according to media reports.
South Lebanon Bombed Church
Craig Murray | November 30, 2024
At dusk, I visit the old church which Israel bombed, murdering 15 first responders. Israel has killed over 220 medics and paramedics in Lebanon.
ICC says facing threats over arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant
Press TV – December 2, 2024
The International Criminal Court (ICC) says it has faced coercion and intimidation after judges issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ousted war minister over war crimes in Gaza.
Addressing the ICC members in The Hague, ICC President Tomoko Akane said the court faced “coercive measures, threats, pressure, and acts of sabotage.”
“We are at a turning point in history… International law and international justice are under threat. So is the future of humanity.”
“The International Criminal Court will continue to carry out its lawful mandate, independently and impartially, without giving in to any outside interference.”
The ICC issued the arrest warrants on November 21.
The court determined there were “reasonable grounds” that Israel’s siege and assault on Gaza “created conditions of life calculated to bring about the destruction of part of the civilian population.”
Following the issuance of the warrants, the United States, Israel’s great benefactor and an accomplice in the Gaza genocide, swiftly rejected the ICC decision.
Some US Republicans called on the Senate to sanction the ICC. President Joe Biden said the warrants were “outrageous.”
“Several elected officials are being severely threatened and are subjected to arrest warrants from a permanent member of the UN Security Council,” the ICC president stated.
“The court is being threatened with draconian economic sanctions from institutions of another permanent member of the Security Council as if it was a terrorist organization,” she said.
It is “appalling” that countries appear “scandalized” when the ICC hands down arrest warrants based on international law, Akane added.
“If the court collapses, this will inevitably imply the collapse of all situations and cases… The danger for the court is existential.”
DAWN, a US-based rights group that has welcomed the arrest warrants, has warned Biden administration officials – including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin – that they could be next.
The Long War to reaffirm Western and Israeli primacy undergoes a shape-shift
By Alastair Crooke | Strategic Culture Foundation | December 2, 2024
The long war to reaffirm western and Israeli primacy is undergoing a shape-shift. On one front, the calculus in respect to Russia and the Ukraine war has shifted. And in the Middle East, the locus and shape of the war is shifting in a distinct way.
Georges Kennan’s famed Soviet doctrine has long formed the baseline to U.S. policy, firstly directed toward the Soviet Union, and latterly, towards Russia. Kennan’s thesis from 1946 was that the United States needed to work patiently and resolutely to thwart the Soviet threat, and to enhance and aggravate the internal fissures in the Soviet system, until its contradictions triggered the collapse from within.
More recently, the Atlantic Council has drawn on the Kennan doctrine to suggest that his broad outline should serve as the basis of U.S. policy towards Iran. “The threat that Iran poses to the U.S. resembles the one faced from the Soviet Union after World War II. In this regard, the policy that George Kennan outlined for dealing with the Soviet Union has some applications for Iran”, the Atlantic report states.
Over the years, that doctrine has ossified into an entire network of security understandings, based on the archetypal conviction that America is strong, and that Russia was weak. Russia must ‘know that’, and thus, it was argued, there could be no logic for Russian strategists to imagine they had any other option but to submit to the overmatch represented by the combined military strength of NATO versus a ‘weak’ Russia. And should Russian strategists unwisely persevere with challenging the West, it was said, the inherent contrariety simply would cause Russia to fracture.
American neocons and western intelligence have not listened to any other view, because they were (and largely still are) convinced by Kennan’s formulation. The American foreign policy class simply could not accept the possibility that such a core thesis was wrong. The entire approach reflected more a deep-seated culture, rather than any rational analysis – even when visible facts on the ground pointed them to a different reality.
So, America has piled the pressure on Russia through the incremental delivery of additional weapons systems to Ukraine; through stationing intermediate range nuclear-capable missiles ever-closer to Russia’s borders; and most recently, by shooting ATACMS into ‘old Russia’.
The aim has been to pressure Russia into a situation where it would feel obliged to make concessions to Ukraine, such as to accept a freezing of the conflict, and to be obliged to negotiate against Ukrainian bargaining ‘cards’ devised to yield a solution acceptable to the U.S. Or, alternatively, for Russia to be cornered into the ‘nuclear corner’.
American strategy ultimately rests on the conviction that the U.S. could engage in a nuclear war with Russia – and prevail; that Russia understands that were it to go nuclear, it would ‘lose the world’. Or, pressured by NATO, the anger amongst Russians likely would sweep Putin from office were he to make significant concessions to Ukraine. It was a ‘win-win’ outcome – from the U.S. perspective.
Unexpectedly however, a new weapon appeared on the scene which precisely unshackles President Putin from the ‘all-or-nothing’ choice of having to concede a bargaining ‘hand’ to Ukraine, or resort to nuclear deterrence. Instead, the war can be settled by facts on the ground. Effectively, the George Kennan ‘trap’ imploded.
The Oreshnik missile (that was used to attack the Yuzhmash complex at Dnietropetrovsk) provides Russia with a weapon, such as never before witnessed: An intermediate range missile system that effectively checkmates the western nuclear threat.
Russia can now manage western escalation with a credible threat of retaliation that is both hugely destructive – yet conventional. It inverts the paradigm. It is now the West’s escalation that either has to go nuclear, or be limited to providing Ukraine with weapons such as ATACMS or Storm Shadow that will not alter the course of the war. Were NATO to escalate further, it risks an Oreshnik strike in retaliation, either in Ukraine or on some target in Europe, leaving the West with the dilemma of what to do next.
Putin has warned: ‘If you strike again in Russia, we will respond with an Oreshnik hit on a military facility in another nation. We will provide warning, so that civilians can evacuate. There is nothing that you can do to prevent this; you do not have an anti-missile system that can stop an attack coming in at Mach 10’.
The tables are turned.
Of course, there are other reasons beyond the permanent security cadre’s wish to Gulliverise Trump into continuing the war in Ukraine, in order to taint him with a war that he promised immediately to end.
Particularly the British, and others in Europe, want the war to continue, because they are on the financial hook from their holdings of some $20 billion Ukrainian bonds which are in a ‘default-like status’, or from their guarantees to the IMF for loans to Ukraine. Europe simply cannot afford the costs of a full default. Neither can Europe afford to pick up the burden, were the Trump Administration to walk away from supporting Ukraine financially. So they collude with the U.S. interagency structure to make the continuation of the war proofed against a Trump policy reversal: Europe for financial motives, and the Deep State because it wants to disrupt Trump, and his domestic agenda.
The other wing to the ‘global war’ reflects a mirror paradox: That is, ‘Israel is strong and Iran is weak’. The central point is not only its cultural underpinning, but that the entire Israeli and U.S. apparatus is party to the narrative that Iran is a weak and technically backward country.
The most significant aspect is the multi-year failure as regards factors such as the skill to understand strategies, and recognize changes in the other sides’ capabilities, views and understandings.
Russia seems to have solved some of the general physical problems of objects flying at hypersonic speed. The use of new composite materials has made it possible to enable the gliding cruise bloc to make a long-distance guided flight practically in conditions of plasma formation. It flies to its target like a meteorite; like a ball of fire. The temperature on its surface reaches 1,600–2,000 degrees Celsius but the cruise bloc is reliably guided.
And Iran seems to have solved the problems associated with an adversary enjoying air dominance. Iran has created a deterrence fashioned from the evolution of cheap swarms drones matched up with Ballistic missiles carrying precision hypersonic warheads. It puts $1,000 drones and cheap, precision missiles up and against hugely expensive piloted airframes – An inversion of warfare that has been twenty years in the making.
The Israeli war however, is metamorphosing in other ways. The war in Gaza and Lebanon has strained Israeli manpower; the IDF have sustained heavy losses; its troops are exhausted; and the reservists are losing commitment to Israel’s wars, and are failing to show up for duty.
Israel has reached the limits of its capacity to put boots on the ground (short of conscripting the Orthodox Haredi Yeshiva students – an act that could bring down the Coalition).
In short, the Israeli army’s troop levels have fallen below present command ordered military commitments. The economy is imploding and internal divisions are raw and bruising. This is especially so due to the inequity of secular Israelis dying, whilst others stay exempt from military service – a destiny reserved for some but not others.
This tension played a major part in Netanyahu’s decision to agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon. The growing animus about Orthodox Haredi exemption risked bringing down the Coalition.
There are – metaphorically speaking – now two Israels: The Kingdom of Judea versus the State of Israel. In view of such deep antagonisms, many Israelis now see war with Iran as the catharsis that will bind a fractured people together again, and – if victorious – end all of Israel’s wars.
Outside, the war widens and shape-shifts: Lebanon, for now, is put on a low flame burner, but Turkey has triggered a major military operation (reportedly some 15,000 strong) in an attack on Aleppo, using U.S. and Turkish trained jihadists and militia from Idlib. Turkish Intelligence no doubt has its own distinct objectives, but the U.S. and Israel have a particular interest to disrupt weapons supply routes to Hizbullah in Lebanon.
The Israeli wanton onslaught on non-combatants, women and children – and its explicit ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population – has left the region (and the Global South) seething and radicalised. Israel, through its actions, is disrupting the old ethos. The region is ‘conservative’ no more. Rather, a very different ‘Awakening’ is gestating.
Al-Tanf: The US stronghold in Syria and how it safeguards Israel
By Haidar Mustafa | The Cradle | December 2, 2024
On 10 September 2014, the US announced the formation of an international coalition with the participation of 86 countries to eradicate the terrorist group ISIS, which had declared the establishment of a “caliphate” in late June.
The coalition’s operations began in Syria and Iraq in early 2015. However, what unfolded was more than just a campaign against terrorism; it became a vehicle for advancing US strategic ambitions in West Asia – including the establishment of illegal military bases to secure influence and resources in eastern Syria, primarily to protect the interests of its key ally, Israel.
Exploiting the war for geostrategic gains
Washington leveraged the anti-ISIS campaign to pursue broader geostrategic goals, deploying roughly 2,000 troops into Syria – an occupation that violated international law and Syrian sovereignty. By 2016, US forces had established a presence at Al-Tanf, a strategically important base located at the tri-border area between Syria, Iraq, and Jordan. This position, south of the Euphrates River, overlooks a critical supply route from Tehran to Damascus and Beirut, which the US views as significant for regional control.
The Al-Tanf base was originally established in 1991 before the Second Gulf War, reactivated during the 2003 Iraq invasion, and then closed after US forces consolidated control in Iraq. It reopened in 2016 after ISIS was driven from the area.
Since then, Al-Tanf has served not only as a training ground for fighters of the CIA-backed Maghawir al-Thawra but also as a cornerstone of broader US interests, as Colonel Daniel Magruder Jr. noted in a 2020 Brookings Institution report entitled Al Tanf garrison: America’s strategic baggage in the Middle East.
According to Magruder, Al-Tanf was meant to facilitate the continued fight against ISIS, counter Iranian activities, and maintain leverage in negotiations over Syria’s future.
However, the base’s role went far beyond these stated goals. US occupation forces at Al-Tanf engaged in both offensive and defensive intelligence operations while also supporting armed groups against the Syrian government.
The base acted as a hub for the Military Operations Center (MOC), a joint effort with several states aimed at coordinating military activities in southern Syria, ultimately undermining Syrian sovereignty and its allies.
The real strategic goal: A buffer zone for Israel
Beyond its military role, Al-Tanf’s strategic location supports plans for a controlled buffer zone involving the nearby Rukban refugee camp. Military expert Major General Muhammad Abbas told The Cradle that this buffer would help US and Israeli objectives by creating a physical barrier between Syria and Iraq.
The base also facilitates Israeli operations in Syrian airspace, providing a logistical advantage for air force missions that circumvent Syrian air defenses. The collaboration between the US and the occupation state has been well documented, with Al-Tanf serving as a launching point for Israeli air strikes deep inside Syria – attacks that would be far riskier from other approaches due to Syrian anti-aircraft systems.
A 2021 report by the Washington Institute highlighted how the US occupying presence at Al-Tanf has directly benefited Israel, supporting its “battle between wars” – a strategic approach aimed at minimizing risk and exploiting weaknesses in Syrian defenses.
Speaking to The Cradle, political analyst Bassem al-Shehawi notes that the US presence in Syria has always aligned with safeguarding Israel, whether by severing geographical links between members of the Axis of Resistance or by deploying advanced radar and air defense systems to protect Tel Aviv’s interests.
Al-Tanf’s importance for the US and Israel
Crucially, it also facilitates Israeli air force attacks on targets deep inside Syria – attacks that could not have been carried out from above Lebanon or the occupied Golan Heights due to the distance involved. Since 2018, when Syrian air defenses shot down an Israeli F-16, Israeli forces have completely avoided entering Syrian airspace from the western side.
Shehawi adds that this base’s importance comes from its buffer zone and air umbrella, which have a radius of 55 kilometers. These were established due to the non-conflict understanding between Russia and the US regarding Syria. The base also played a role in confronting drone and missile attacks launched by Iran during Operations True Promise 1 and 2, whether by providing radar monitoring or attempting to shoot them down, similar to the role played by other US bases in Syria and the wider region.
A report published by Al-Monitor also confirms that Israeli fighter planes had previously used the corridor along the Jordanian–Syrian border and the airspace around Al-Tanf to penetrate Syrian airspace to launch strikes.
The significance of Al-Tanf was evident during the presidency of Donald Trump, who often spoke of pulling US troops out of Syria. However, the situation on the ground was more nuanced. Even as Trump made public declarations about withdrawing troops, officials within his administration, including former National Security Advisor John Bolton, ensured that key positions like Al-Tanf remained secure. Bolton stated that any withdrawal from Syria would be conditional on an agreement with Russia to replace US forces at Al-Tanf, thereby ensuring that Israeli security interests were safeguarded.
The future of the US occupation of Syria
With Trump poised to return to the White House next month, questions have resurfaced about the future of American military involvement in Syria. The expectation is that despite any renewed rhetoric about reducing military involvement, Al-Tanf will remain a key asset in maintaining US influence in Syria and the region.
In 2023, former Chief of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley visited Al-Tanf, emphasizing its importance for Israel’s security and confirming that there were no plans to withdraw. Al-Tanf will likely continue to play a key role in Washington’s West Asia strategy, even if it reduces its presence elsewhere in Syria.
The base serves as a strategic card – enabling continued influence, fostering instability, and complicating the region’s dynamics. Yet, a critical question remains: How sustainable is the US presence at Al-Tanf, given the growing resistance? With Iraqi and local Syrian factions increasingly targeting US positions, Washington’s ability to maintain control over Al-Tanf may weaken.
In time, Syria might leverage its own “Popular Resistance” to apply pressure, forcing US forces to eventually leave Syrian territory, as indicated earlier in the year with the tribal uprising in Deir Ezzor.
Biden’s Parting Shot at America
By Ron Paul | December 2, 2024
The interim between a US presidential election and the swearing in of a new Administration has for most of our history been a non-eventful period where the outgoing Administration winds down operations and the incoming Administration ramps up new personnel before the inauguration.
The 20th Amendment to our Constitution was enacted in 1933 to reduce the “lame duck” period between election and inauguration to January 20th instead of March 4th. Increasing ease in travel and communications made such a long interim unnecessary. However long the transition period, it has been understood that with the new election came a new mandate from the American people and the “lame duck” outgoing administration was meant to quietly quack out its last few days in office without incident.
Then came Biden. In the period since the American people rejected Biden’s neocon interventionists in favor of Donald Trump’s promises to end the wars, the “lame duck” has run roughshod over the will of the American people. Whoever is running Biden – and the answer is unclear – has decided to “Trump proof” foreign policy to bring us to the literal brink of WWIII with Russia. And to top it off, Biden’s people this past week have again unleashed al-Qaeda linked rebels to wreak havoc in Syria!
After solidly opposing the neocon demand that Ukraine be given permission to fire US weapons deep into Russia, President Biden in the waning days of his presidency suddenly reversed course and granted permission. From back in 2022, when Russia first went into Ukraine, Biden had argued against sending offensive weaponry and US troops to fight on Ukraine’s behalf. “Make no mistake,” he said in March of that year, “that’s called World War III.”
Something about losing the popular and electoral vote has led Biden’s people to disregard the threat of WWIII and give the green light for attacks with US missiles deep into Russian territory. Why is this so different than providing tanks or bullets? These missile systems are highly complex and classified and can only be operated by US or NATO personnel. That means that American military officers are shooting American missiles into Russia – something unimaginable even in the depths of the Cold War!
Then, just days ago, we saw the sudden re-emergence of the US former proxies in Syria – extremists whose ties go back to al-Qaeda – sweep halfway through the country in what appears to be a return of Obama’s disastrous “Assad must go” policy. For five years the conflict in Syria had been more or less “frozen,” but Biden’s people have turned it up to a boil.
Why has the Biden Administration suddenly given a green light to these terrorists and how deeply is the CIA involved in stirring up new trouble in Syria? Make no mistake: these US-backed “rebels” would never have made their move without the approval of the Biden Administration.
The American people did not vote for an expansion of war, either in eastern Europe or the Middle East. A recent CBE News/YouGov poll has shown that a majority of Americans favor an end to all US military aid to Ukraine.
Upending the card table just because you lose the game not only shows blatant disregard for the “democracy” his party constantly preached on the campaign trail, but by pouring gasoline on these two very dangerous conflicts as he heads for the door President Biden puts each and every one of us in grave danger.
Secrecy and the Divine Right to Deceive
By Jim Bovard | The Libertarian Institute | December 2, 2024
Secrecy and lying are two sides of the same political coin. The Supreme Court declared in 1936, “An informed public is the most potent of all restraints upon misgovernment.” Thus, conniving politicians have no choice but to drop an Iron Curtain around Washington.
Politicians guarantee that Americans are left clueless on the most controversial or dangerous federal policies. The government is creating trillions of pages of new secrets every year. The total is equivalent to “20 million four-drawer filing cabinets filled with double-spaced text on paper,” according to The Washington Post. If those cabinets were laid end to end, they would stretch almost to the moon. The feds have accumulated the equivalent of hundreds of pages of secrets for each American, blighting any hope for citizens to learn of their rulers’ rascality.
“All rulers in all ages have tried to impose a false view of the world upon their followers,” George Orwell wrote in his novel Nineteen Eighty-Four. This is where government classification—i.e., secrecy—comes in handy. The more information government classifies, the easier it becomes for politicians to dupe the American people. In Washington, deniability is better than the truth.
Secrecy was usually not a grave peril to most Americans’ rights, liberties, and safety until the U.S. government began warring in the 1940s and on into this century.
Secrecy helped deliver a death warrant for tens of thousands of Americans and hundreds of thousands of Vietnamese. President Lyndon Johnson fabricated claims about an alleged North Vietnamese attack in the Gulf of Tonkin to sway Congress to give him unlimited authority to attack North Vietnam. Johnson assumed he was entitled to deceive Americans to vastly expand the war he decided to fight to boost his 1964 presidential election campaign. But other federal officials claimed a prerogative to blindfold the American people. When Assistant Defense Secretary Arthur Sylvester visited Saigon in 1965, he hectored American correspondents covering the Vietnam War: “Look, if you think any American official is going to tell you the truth, then you’re stupid. Did you hear that? Stupid!” Sylvester declared that he expected the American press to be “the handmaidens of government.” Most of the American media has followed orders regarding foreign reporting most of the time since then.
In March 1972, President Richard Nixon, as part of his “pledge to create an open Administration,” ordered radical changes in how Uncle Sam kept secrets. Nixon announced that the classification system “failed to meet the standards of an open and democratic society, allowing too many papers to be classified for too long a time. Classification has frequently served to conceal bureaucratic mistakes or to prevent embarrassment to officials and administrations.” He promised “to lift the veil of secrecy which now enshrouds” federal documents. Nixon’s campaign against secrecy faltered after the Watergate coverup destroyed his presidency.
In 1978, President Jimmy Carter created the Information Security Oversight Office to oversee classification but secrecy regime continued and grew. In 1989, former Solicitor General of the United States Dean Erwin Griswold complained that “there is massive overclassification and that the principal concern of the classifiers is not with national security, but with governmental embarrassment of one sort or another.” In 1991, former National Security Council official Rodney McDaniel estimated that “only 10% of classification was for legitimate protection of secrets.” In 1997, a federal commission headed by Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-NY) lamented that “secrets in the federal government are whatever anyone with a stamp decides to stamp secret.”
In the weeks after the 9/11 attacks, the percentage of Americans who trusted the federal government doubled. The George W. Bush administration exploited the new credulity to boost the number of classified government documents almost tenfold. The New York Times reported in 2005 that federal agencies were “classifying documents at the rate of 125 a minute as they create new categories of semi-secrets bearing vague labels like ‘sensitive security information.’” William Leonard, former chief of the federal Information Security Oversight Office, complained of seeing information “classified that I’ve also seen published in third-grade textbooks.”
But secrecy again signed a death warrant for thousands of Americans. President George W. Bush persuaded Americans to support invading Iraq by blaming Saddam Hussein for the 9/11 attacks, among other pretexts. Bush could vilify Iraq thanks to a sweeping coverup of the role of the Saudi government in bankrolling and directly assisting the 9/11 hijackers.
According to the Barack Obama administration, even federal judges must bow to classification labels. “We don’t think there is a First Amendment right to classified documents,” Justice Department lawyer Catherine Dorsey told a federal judge in 2015. The New York Times’ James Risen spent almost a decade in the federal crosshairs after his 2006 book State of War exposed the NSA’s illegal warrantless wiretapping and other federal crimes. Robert Litt, general counsel for the Director of National Intelligence, compared journalism to drunk driving to justify punishing any journalist who published confidential information. But the Justice Department could not prove Risen’s disclosures harmed anything except federal credibility.
Secrecy leaves truth up to the discretion of today’s political appointees. Secrecy lets government officials fill in the blanks as they please. Government secrecy can blindfold people as effectively as federal marshals descending upon a newspaper’s printing presses with axes and sledgehammers. The more facts government suppresses, the more lies politicians can tell.
Will secrecy determine whether Americans are dragged into another world war in the coming months? The Joe Biden administration is encouraging the Ukraine government to become far more aggressive, if not reckless, in its attacks on Russia. But Americans are being treated the same as the downtrodden serfs whom Russian czars dragged into wars centuries ago. The Biden administration decided that Americans have no right to know the facts when their rulers swerve closer to Armageddon. Unfortunately, as in Saigon in 1965, most of the media is still shamefully “the handmaidens of government.”
NATO begins major war drills near Russian border
RT | December 2, 2024
NATO countries are set to kick off major war games in northeast Estonia near the border with Russia on Monday, focusing on the rapid deployment of the bloc’s forces and increasing their interoperability.
Some 2,000 troops from Estonia, Latvia, the US, France, and the UK are set to take part in the two-week Pikne (‘Lightning’) exercise, which is part of NATO’s broader Brilliant Eagle program dedicated to increasing the bloc’s deployment and cooperation capabilities in the Baltic Sea region.
According to the commander of the Estonian Division, Major General Indrek Sirel, who is leading the exercises, the war games will focus on “rapid deployment of reinforcements and cooperation between French, British and Estonian forces.” Units of the French Armed Forces will carry out a rapid deployment operation to Estonia by air, followed by joint multinational maneuvers on land, air and sea, Sirel said in a press release.
The first week of the exercises will be dedicated to the movement of units and practicing cooperation in various regions of north and northeast Estonia as well as the Gulf of Finland, and will focus on conducting operations as a “multinational force to counter an emerging threat on land, in the air, and at the sea.” The second week will involve live-fire exercises with heavy combat equipment and military aircraft.
Estonian residents have been warned that low-altitude flights will be taking place over parts of the country as part of the exercises, and that loud noises will likely be heard due to the use of simulation ammunition.
The exercise comes as tensions between Russia and NATO have continued to escalate. Moscow has repeatedly stressed that the expansion of the US-led bloc towards its borders represents a threat to its security.
In October, Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko also claimed that NATO is no longer hiding the fact that it is gearing up for a potential military conflict with Russia by continuing to hold increasingly larger military exercises near its borders, such as the Steadfast Defender drills, which were the bloc’s largest maneuvers since the end of the Cold War.
“Regional defense plans have been approved, concrete tasks for all of the bloc’s military command structures have been formulated. Possible options for military action against Russia are being continuously worked out,” the diplomat said.
Combination Routine Childhood Vaccination Associated with Development of Asthma and Eczema
Hazard Ratios Too High to be Ignored
By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH | Courageous Discourse | December 2, 2024
The University of Nottingham published a study from the West Midlands General Practice Database (n=29,238) and gave the world a rare look at how unvaccinated children compared to those who received combinations of vaccines DPPT (Diphtheria, Polio, Pertussis, Tetanus) at months 2, 3, 4 and MMR (Measles, Mumps, Rubella) at 12 and 15 months.
The authors reported hazard ratios far in excess of two and attempted to adjust them by frequency of visits. I can tell you as an epidemiologist that the crude measures of association are far more important. For example, if an unvaccinated child is perfectly healthy without problems, then the visit rate to the clinic will be very low. In this group, there was a more than 10-fold increased risk with vaccination. Conversely vaccinated with asthma or eczema the visit rates will be higher.
As you can see from the table, both DPPT and MMR were significantly associated with the later development of asthma and eczema. These data suggest that children who undergo routine combination vaccination face higher risks of childhood allergic diseases. Conversely the unvaccinated have low or negligible risks. Going natural appears to be a healthier way to have a young child remain healthy.
Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH
President, McCullough Foundation
Desperate Escalations in Middle East & Ukraine
Alastair Crooke, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen
Glenn Diesen | December 1, 2024
I had a conversation with Alastair Crooke about the escalating situation in the Middle East and Ukraine. Thousands of Turkish-backed jihadists invade Aleppo immediately after the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Russia’s Oreshnik missiles change NATO’s calculations. The commitment to deeply flawed narratives in the Middle East and Ukraine results in miscalculations and failure to pursue course correction.
Watch at Odysee
When Is A Ceasefire Not A Ceasefire?
When it is set up by Washington and Israel is involved
By Philip Giraldi • Unz Review • November 30, 2024
We are possibly witnessing another stealthy move by Washington and Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to enhance the Israeli position in a Middle East at war while pretending to do something else. President Joe Biden and his cast of know-nothings have been bleating for months about their desire to arrange a “humanitarian” ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon while also alternatively whining about the Jewish state’s “right to defend itself,” but somehow the arrangements proposed have never quite satisfied Netanyahu. Bibi has repeatedly declared that he will not accept any halt to the fighting, presumably until all the Palestinians are dead, but would accept some kind of suspension of the conflicts as long as he has the option to return to unleashing the mass murder whenever it suits him. He deceptively labels that “making sure that the bad guy ‘terrorists’ abide by the agreement.” In that context of everyone lying to everyone else, Genocide Joe has managed to drag his sorry ass over the finish line with a “whereas laced” US endorsed temporary peace formula for Lebanon that suits Bibi just fine. In fact, it suited him so well that he could not resist renewing his attacking the Lebanese last Thursday even before the ink was dry on the ceasefire documents.
The ceasefire, arranged largely by Amos Hochstein, an Israeli who served in the Israeli army and is now Biden’s roving negotiator, was agreed to on November 27th. Its written provisions include 60 days for Hezbollah to withdraw to the Litani River, 18 miles north of the border, while Israel withdraws from all of south Lebanon that it has occupied. The Lebanese army will occupy the area vacated by Hezbollah and will work with the UNIFIL soldiers to monitor the process and maintain the peace in what will be designated as a weapons free zone. Complicating the agreement, there is a side letter from the United States to Israel confirming American support for Israel to “act in self-defense,” a term that Israel can exploit to reintervene in Lebanon. In the letter, the US also commits itself to share with Israel intelligence on Iran providing any support for Hezbollah. Israel is to be permitted to act “in self-defense” if Hezbollah violates the ceasefire in the area south of the Litani and it is also allowed to conduct reconnaissance flights over Lebanon to monitor developments. As usual, Prime Minister Netanyahu claimed a “win,” stating that he had reached an understanding with the US that Israel would “maintain full military freedom of action” in southern Lebanon. “If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack. If it tries to renew terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it launches a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in a truck with missiles, we will attack.” As 35,000 Hezbollah militants actually live in the disarmed zone and presumably will try to return home, Israel will always have an excuse to resume its offensive.
To be sure, Lebanon was happy to accept any reprieve from the destruction wrought by Israeli bombs and artillery rounds, even if Israeli ground forces had been less than successful. Lebanon’s war losses have been calculated to be upwards of $8.5 billion dollars, together with thousands of civilians killed and injured. That includes Israel’s destruction of 100,000 homes and substantial impacts on health, education, and agriculture, according to the World Bank. But there is nevertheless, of course, a lot of speculation as to why any agreement was reached at all given Netanyahu’s unrelenting demand that he have a free hand to punish his neighbors and Biden’s usual cowardice whenever he is confronted by the Israeli gauleiter. The most interesting theory regarding why Israel has agreed to the US drafted ceasefire with Lebanon is that the Israeli government has finally figured out that it is not exactly winning its two little wars even though it has killed tens of thousands, or possibly even hundreds of thousands, of Arabs.
Regarding Israel’s own casualties, one assumes that the US Defense Department knows roughly or even in detail the numbers of dead and wounded that the Israel Occupation Force (IOF) is sustaining in its unconventional warfare in both Gaza and south Lebanon. Some credible analysts even have concluded that the Israeli military is under considerable pressure due to a high casualty rate in ground fighting involving its best soldiers, overreliance on reservists, and shortages of equipment and weapons in spite of the Biden airlifts occurring on an almost daily basis. There are reports that even the Pentagon is now running out of certain types of weapons, including artillery shells and smart bombs. A respite in the fighting against the still formidable Hezbollah enemy would be welcome both to the Israeli government and to the military planners particularly as the ceasefire is drafted to favor Israel, which can intervene in Lebanon at will just by alleging a Lebanese failure to enforce the agreement. Netanyahu may also be looking forward to the Trump factor in seven weeks. Donald Trump has always been a consequence free supporter of Israel and his cabinet is composed of hardcore Zionists. So, there is every reason for Netanyahu to believe that with Trump in power he will be able to manipulate circumstances involving both Gazans and Lebanese to enable a US supported move towards the large-scale attack on Iran that Bibi has wanted for decades.
“Victory” has also become elusive as fighting drags on well into its second year on all fronts and Israel’s “freeing of the hostages” has not only failed to materialize, it has resulted in the actual killing of some prisoners of Hamas by Israeli bombs and gunfire. Israel has failed to establish any of the “realities” it wanted to create by invading Lebanon: there is no buffer zone and instead a full IOF retreat, no Hezbollah disarmament, no Hezbollah withdrawal, and no Hezbollah removal from political power in Lebanon. Publicly, Israel got a decoupling between Gaza and Lebanon, but it also was punished with an international arrest warrant for multiple war crimes and genocide being issued against Israel’s Prime Minister and former Defense Minister. Even though the US has rallied around defense of Israel, the demands for isolating Israel worldwide due to its clearly demonstrated ongoing genocide will intensify.
The disruption and sinking of the Israeli economy due to the evacuation of the northern tier of the country under Hezbollah pressure, an increasing number of international boycotts, and the closure of many businesses, has been widely observed, as has also been the actual departure of many more educated Jewish Israelis holding US and European passports. There is considerable talk among antiwar Israeli Jews in the diaspora and even in liberal newspapers like Haaretz that Israel is in a very real sense self-destructing.
This all derives from the growing belief that the Israeli leadership has begun to realize that it does not have an effective military solution either to end the war in its favor nor to extend it to include the US as an ally in attacking Iran. If Netanyahu and his generals thought they could continue the carnage for another ninety days until the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House, they almost certainly would have gone in that direction without any talk of ceasefire. Instead, leaked reports suggest that the generals themselves are complaining that the government of Netanyahu “has no plan” and have demanded a cutback due to heavy losses.
There are, to be sure, other theories to explain the surprise development of the so-called ceasefire, particularly as it so closely involves the United States and Israel, neither which can be trusted. The lull in the fighting certainly gives the IOF a break during which time it can regroup and re-equip with the help of Washington. And, as noted above, the concession to Israel that it can re-engage if it determines that Lebanon is not abiding by the ceasefire will be easy to manipulate as Israel is, if anything, a master of deception. So the agreement to down arms benefits Israel with Netanyahu, backed by the US, continuing to be able to call the shots on what comes next on the Hezbollah front.
So will the ceasefire hold or is it another gimmick by the US and Israel? In fact, as noted above, the uneasy truce between Israel and the militant group Hezbollah was violated by Israel on its second day in Lebanon on Thursday, by an airstrike that it inevitably claimed targeted militants violating terms of the cease-fire deal. The Israeli strike was the first of its kind since the US backed ceasefire went into effect before dawn on the day before. In spite of the clear violation, neither of the war’s combatants, Israel or Hezbollah, seemed keen to immediately return to full-scale fighting. The Israeli military said the incident, near the border in southern Lebanon, had targeted two militants entering a Hezbollah rocket facility that had been used to fire into Israel. Lebanon’s army, which is set to play a major role in enforcing the truce, also accused Israel of violating the ceasefire “several more times” on Thursday afternoon. The Israeli military claimed that its soldiers had in fact interdicted other militants attempting to enter into southern Lebanon. “With the same power we used to secure the agreement, we will now enforce it no less so,” Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, the Israeli military’s chief of staff, said in a subsequent video. It is no doubt precisely how Israel will behave in the future and how little the US, as a guarantor of the agreement together with France, will be tempted to intervene to maintain the peace contrary to Netanyahu’s wishes. That partisanship by Washington is precisely the problem and it suggests that the both the integrity and viability of the ceasefire might reasonably be questioned.
Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D., is Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest, a 501(c)3 tax deductible educational foundation (Federal ID Number #52-1739023) that seeks a more interests-based U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Website is councilforthenationalinterest.org, address is P.O. Box 2157, Purcellville VA 20134 and its email is inform@cnionline.org.
A surprise assault on Syria, but can it last?
By Haidar Mustafa | The Cradle | November 30, 2024
In his speech announcing Israel’s agreement to a ceasefire with Lebanon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a direct threat to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, warning him of “playing with fire.” Those words came mere hours before armed terrorist factions from Idlib launched a shock offensive on Syrian army positions in the de-escalation zone in the western countryside of Aleppo. The operation is being led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebranded incarnation of Al-Nusra Front – or Syria’s Al-Qaeda franchise – led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, with the participation of other international terror organizations such as the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP).
The army is preparing to deter aggression
On the morning of 27 November, armed extremist groups launched violent attacks on Syrian army positions in the vicinity of the 46th Regiment and toward the villages of Orem al-Kubra, Orem al-Sughra, Basratun, Anjara, and the surrounding areas, located a short distance from the M5 Aleppo-Hama-Damascus highway.
In their first surprise attack, as part of an operation called “Deterrence of Aggression,” the militants were able to enter a number of villages that Syrian army forces had evacuated in preparation for containing the breach, which constitutes a flagrant violation of the 2019 de-escalation agreements between Turkey, Russia, and Iran.
The scope of the battles quickly expanded on the international road and into the city of Aleppo. A Turkish security source quoted by Qatari-funded Middle East Eye said that the goal of the military operation launched by HTS and its allies is the recovery of the positions gained by the Syrian forces with the support of Russia during the battles of 2017 – 2020.
The militants claim that the Syrian and Russian army’s “violations” of the de-escalation agreements – and their intensification of strikes on Idlib – prompted these military operations in order to regain their control of these areas. They say that the Syrian army’s retreat in Aleppo’s western countryside provided impetus for the militants to launch further attacks toward rural eastern Idlib.
Within three days, armed extremist groups were able to reach the heart of Aleppo and declare a curfew for 24 hours. As the confrontations intensified, Syrian and Russian warplanes launched a series of violent raids on HTS and Turkestani sites and supply lines in Darat Azza, Al-Atareb, Sarmin, and other areas. These airstrikes are still ongoing, with video footage revealing heavy losses in the ranks of the extremist factions and several media sources confirming fatalities of more than 200 members of HTS and other militant groups in the Aleppo and Idlib regions.
The expansion of air attacks by the Syrian and Russian forces led, on Thursday morning, to a lull in HTS’ field momentum as the group suffered both human and material losses. Sources on the frontline also reveal the arrival of huge military reinforcements to the main confrontation zone, which extends over an area of more than 26 kilometers in western Aleppo – Syrian troops and supplies that are planning a counterattack to restore the status quo. Military expert Haitham Hassoun explains to The Cradle that the Syrian army has regrouped in the rear lines of defense at a depth of 7 to 8 kilometers in preparation for carrying out the counterattack.
How did the preparations go?
In reality, the HTS operation was by no means a spur-of-the-moment offensive but rather a result of years-long preparations spearheaded by US and Turkish intelligence to unify the ranks of various extremist factions in Syria’s north. This project took place under the direct supervision of the Turkish army, which aimed to converge the militant groups in Idlib and the Aleppo countryside and place decision-making in the hands of mainly two parties: the so-called Syrian National Army (SNA), which is loyal to Ankara, and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria.
In this mash-up of terror outfits are the Turkestan and Uyghur “jihadist” groups, used primarily as strike forces in specific military operations, largely fulfilling the interests of their US and Turkish funders.
Military expert, Brigadier General Haitham Hassoun, confirms that preparations to launch this operation began “a long time ago,” and that the participating groups established a joint ops room about a month and a half ago. He believes that the militants benefited from “misdirection” and electronic warfare media operations carried out by Turkish intelligence to camouflage their intentions and movements and by Turkish occupation forces inside Syria during the days preceding the shock offensive. The militants further benefited from sophisticated intel that helped them exploit existing loopholes on the ground and were aware of vacuums in the Syrian army’s positions, which then led to this breach and confusion in the defense lines.
Who made the decision, and what is the goal?
Today’s scenes in Idlib and Aleppo remind Syrians of a period they thought they had put behind them after the 2016 liberation of Aleppo and the 2019 de-escalation understandings. But those hard-fought understandings had always remained fragile, given that Turkiye evaded its commitments to purge the M5 area of terrorist groups. The militancy in Syria’s north served Ankara’s interest in maintaining pressure on Damascus. It also explains this week’s armed operation – an action the Turks believe will force the Syrian government to enter negotiations under fire, especially if armed extremists re-enter Aleppo or sever the critical international route.
On the other hand, one objective of the operation may be the US decision to maintain a state of conflict in the region and redirect pressure toward Russia and its regional allies ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
As many commentators have pointed out, the military operation was launched in the direct aftermath of Netanyahu’s explicit threats in his speech this week and is likely connected to Israel’s regional war and Tel Aviv’s determination to sever the Syrian route for members of the Resistance Axis. The offensive appears to have been coordinated with the NATO-member Turkiye, under the direction of Turkish occupation authorities and intelligence services, which have for years managed and supported the various extremist groups in northern Syria.
In a preliminary estimate, what is happening is a return to the situation before 2019, a re-invasion that effectively seeks to derail all the achievements of the Astana peace process. In turn, this deserves nothing less than an equally brash and unexpected response: a Syrian military counter-offensive that not only reclaims the positions held by Syrian army forces a few days ago but one that decisively pushes all the way to Darat Izza and beyond up to the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkiye, cutting off communications routes between the militants in the Aleppo and Idlib regions, and restoring the entire governorates under Syrian government control.
What began as a shock assault may have created an opportunity to end the state of limbo in the country’s north at the end of the Syrian war, provide Damascus and its allies a way to sidestep unproductive de-escalation understandings, and hand the Syrian state a legitimate, legal and moral justification to liberate all territories from terror organizations.
Until or unless this happens, western Aleppo and eastern Idlib will remain active battlefields. However, according to informed sources, the militants are unlikely to remain in an advantageous position for long for several key reasons.
First is the imminent arrival of large Syrian military reinforcements to the area, which will not allow Aleppo to fall into the hands of foreign-backed extremists. Second, these US and Turkish-backed militant groups are less likely to achieve their goals today than in the early years of the war because of seismic political and economic shifts in Europe, which fears the revival of the Syrian conflict and another flood of refugees to its borders.
Third, Damascus has returned to the Arab fold by rejoining the Arab League and being welcomed by several Persian Gulf states. Those capitals are no longer interested in backing jihadists, resuscitating the war, or destabilizing Lebanon and Iraq, Syria’s direct and connected neighbors, at this moment. Nor are they interested in opening up the Syrian military arena to Iranian advisors or forces again.
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From the Archives
Sanctions, War and the Policy of Dual Containment
By SASAN FAYAZMANESH | March 17, 2008
It is now nearly three decades since the Unites States adopted the policy of dual containment of Iran and Iraq. While much has been written about the containment of Iraq, there has been very little in-depth analysis of this policy when it comes to Iran. In a book that is going to be released on March 31, 2008, entitled The United States and Iran: Sanctions, Wars and the Policy of Dual Containment (Routledge), I attempt to address this shortcoming by investigating when and why the US policy of containment of Iran came about, how it evolved, and where it stands today.[1] To the extent that Israel has been involved in US policy making, the study will also include the role that Israel has played in the containment of Iran. Also, since the fate of Iran has been inextricably linked to that of Iraq, occasionally the investigation will overlap with the containment of Iraq.
The policy of dual containment of Iran and Iraq originated during the Carter Administration, but it was not until the Clinton Administration that the expression “dual containment” became popular. … continue
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