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German Omicron Data

el gato malo – bad cattitude – december 31, 2021

this data recently emerged from the robert koch institute in germany.

(no, this has nothing to do with the american koch brothers. it’s a common name and this is a quasi-government health agency.)

data such as this is easy to misinterpret and nearly everyone is doing it incorrectly, so i’d like to walk through why, counter to what many are claiming, this data actually shows that boosters have negative VE (vaccine efficacy).

caveat: this is a small and likely incomplete societal dataset. the sample size is possibly large enough to give us a sense of outcomes, but as with all societal data, it’s difficult to know what bias may be injected by self selection for testing and for vaccination. error bars are likely meaningful.

but we work with what we have, not what we would prefer, so let’s take a look:

this is the summarized raw data:

– 4020, ergo 95,58 % vollständig Geimpfte (1137 davon geboostert) – 186 Ungeimpfte (4,42 %)

4020 cases with 2 or more doses of vaccine, 1137 of them with boosters.

186 cases in the unvaccinated.

(unfortunately, there is no breakout for 1 dose only, so i’m presuming that group has been included in “unvaccinated”)

germany is 70.5% “full vaccinated.” (per OWID) thus, by the definitions this report uses, it is 29.5% unvaccinated.

it is 38.2% boosted as of 12/30/21. it’s not clear to me if this study is using that figure or only counting as boosted those who got their booster more than 14 days ago (as many seem to count it). if this is so, the number drops to 29.3%. i will look at it both ways to try to create some bookends for the range. (if anyone can clarify, i’d be grateful)

to see what is happening more granularly, we first need to regroup the terms:

from this one can see that the 3 groups are actually fairly similar in size, but quite divergent in outcomes.

many seem to presume that because cases in the boosted are a lower percentage of overall cases than the boosted are of the overall population that this shows vaccine efficacy.

this is not, however, correct as can be readily seen once we adjust this data to a per capita level.

that data looks like this (using 83.2mm for german population)

and this makes the issue obvious.

to calculate VE, we need to compare the vaccinated cohorts to the unvaccinated. that’s the control group. there are probably some pretty significant error bars here, but this outcome is STARK. the risk ratios for all vaccinated groups are far, far higher than control.

boosting does seem to lead to a 2/3 risk reduction vs just being double vaxxed but still leaves one at 4.7X the risk of the unvaccinated.

this risk ratio leads to VE figures that are, frankly, so bad that i suspect there must be some sort of bias here. this looks too extreme to be entirely plausible and far exceeds all other data i have seen.

one possible source of this issue is definitional. if the german study is using “boosted +14 days” as its definition, then the numbers change quite a bit as the size of the boosted group shrinks and the size of double vaxxed rises causing their risk rates to converge somewhat.

 

another possible source of contamination is the actual act of running a booster campaign during an outbreak.

the tendency toward transitory immune suppression created by mRNA vaccine administration is well documented.

the danes found it to be on the order of 40-100% increase in the likelihood of infection in the 2 weeks following administration (with 100% likely being a better proxy for genpop as they resemble HCW’s more than NH residents). this study was during a period of relatively low prevalence and with a less contagious variant than omicron. this needle could have moved quite a lot by now.

and all this piles up, so if you are doubling the risk of a group already showing increased risk due to vaccine escape/antigenic fixation/OAS the issue may become multiplicative. […]

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December 31, 2021 - Posted by | Science and Pseudo-Science | ,

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