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Why the Iran War is about to Escalate over The Coming Months

By Robert Inlakesh | Palestine Chronicle | August 28, 2026

Nothing is in place to ensure an Israeli-US victory against the Iranians, but Tel Aviv is not backing down and seeks to complete its mission aimed at dealing an enormous blow to Iran’s economy.

This week, the US Trump administration decided to impose another batch of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, in what it has labeled ‘Operation Economic Outcast’. Yet, this measure’s viability is about to expire and could end up backfiring tremendously, as all the chips are now in place for Tehran to drag Washington deeper into a fiery regional inferno.

Since April 8, when the US and Iran both agreed to a two-week-long ceasefire, American President Donald Trump has been playing a game designed to manipulate oil markets and has attempted just about every tactic known to man in order to simply off-put the economic iceberg that the global economy is heading straight towards.

See, the problem that the Trump administration faces is that its initial attack on Iran failed tremendously. But now, he cannot simply admit defeat and walk away. If he signs a deal with Tehran, then it will be a de facto surrender agreement that ensures a collapse in US regional hegemony and that Israel is left to face the consequences of its actions, with an empowered and emboldened Iran ready to support Tel Aviv’s downfall.

After around 40 days of war with Iran, the Israeli and American leaderships had come to the realization that the only viable next step was to begin targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure – if they were to have any hope of achieving regime change. This, after all, was the Israeli plot to begin with, as they understood well that the Islamic Republic was not going to fall as a result of the air campaign alone.

Targeting Iran’s civilian infrastructure comes with an evident price; this means that the retaliation is going to destroy the key infrastructure of the surrounding States also, from which the US will be launching its attacks. Included on this target list will be Israeli infrastructure also, which is what gives such an air campaign a specific time limit. Israel will view the price of the campaign against Iran as something they are willing to pay, as long as the Islamic Republic will be weakened significantly in the process.

Therefore, Tel Aviv’s leadership will take the necessary hits until that price becomes too high, at which point they will have to get the US to back off. For Israel, the destruction of the Persian Gulf Arab States is a plus, not a minus, as it eliminates economic competitors, but for the United States and most nations around the world, this is catastrophic.

For these reasons, Trump has gone back and forth between strategies designed to get the Iranians to buckle under pressure. He has implemented a counter-blockade on Iran, attempted to use negotiations and a Memorandum of Understanding to divide the Islamic Republic’s leadership, while also working to carve out an alternate route in the Strait of Hormuz.

When the Iranians saw through the MoU deception and responded forcefully, some may even say proactively, the US military began engaging in a tit-for-tat low-intensity battle with the Iranians that sought to try and degrade Iran’s military capabilities in the south.

Now, the latest move has been to introduce the most extreme sanctions program ever as a last-ditch attempt to pressure Tehran. These sanctions are different because they don’t just target Iran’s economy; they are designed to target its allies and trade partners, since the previous maximum-pressure sanctions already targeted everything imaginable.

There is also a reason why this has never been tried before in this way, because it can potentially backfire. You aren’t only targeting Iran; you are going after a large number of countries in the process, including China. Beijing itself has already threatened to retaliate.

Since early March, for all intents and purposes, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, with only brief periods during which any meaningful number of tankers have been able to make it out. With the deterioration of the MoU, another card was played by the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance, as Yemen’s Ansarallah-led government announced a counter-blockade on Saudi Arabia.

By reopening the frozen conflict in Yemen, which had remained under a shaky ceasefire since 2022, it meant that the Yemeni Armed Forces would proceed with the project to not only liberate their nation, but to punish Saudi Arabia where it hurts the most. The Red Sea was a Saudi lifeline, allowing them to continue to export 6 million barrels of oil per day; suddenly, that option was cut, and the limited amount it is now capable of getting out of its Western Ports is exported via the Suez Canal, with insurance rates skyrocketing because of the risk.

Iran has demonstrated time and time again that it is capable of surviving under the weight of US sanctions for long periods. The United States, on the other hand, has not started to properly feel the effects of its actions. One way they have managed to offset the economic fallout of the Strait’s closure is to tap into their Strategic Petroleum Reserves, which have just sunk to their lowest levels since 1982, with experts claiming that they only have 41 days of these supplies left. It barely helps that Trump has also picked this time to engage in a declared trade war with its northern neighbor, Canada, nor that he has made outlandish decisions across the board.

Donald Trump has so far doubled down on his decisions and told the American public that they simply have to put up with the rising oil prices, as their contribution to “preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon”. But the people are not buying it and clearly see that this war is being fought for Israel’s interests, not their own.

Desperate to reshape the region in Israel’s favor, the US has quickly attempted to have both the Iraqi and Lebanese governments disarm resistance factions aligned with Iran. Short of triggering catastrophic civil wars, this strategy cannot be implemented quickly and will have little real-world impact. Similarly, in the Gaza Strip, the Trump administration has put pressure on Hamas to suddenly disarm, providing the Israelis with a green light to amp up their strikes on the civilian population.

Nothing is in place to ensure an Israeli-US victory against the Iranians, but Tel Aviv is not backing down and seeks to complete its mission aimed at dealing an enormous blow to Iran’s economy. Their long-term game is to see a deterioration of the Islamic Republic after its infrastructure takes enormous hits, but this is by no means a guarantee.

Even if Israel gets precisely what it wants, the US will not win. The moment of truth is approaching as the walls close in; the US can either decide that it will act in America’s vital interests and end the war, or throw all its weight behind Israel’s desires.

– Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary filmmaker. He focuses on the Middle East, specializing in Palestine. He contributed this article to The Palestine Chronicle.

August 29, 2026 - Posted by aletho | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Wars for Israel | Iran, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Middle East, Palestine, United States, Yemen, Zionism