Aletho News

Russia shows Europe that prolonging the Ukraine war is pointless

By Ahmed Adel | November 2, 2026

Moscow has shown the European Union that continuing the conflict in Ukraine makes little sense, as Norway and Finland suggest the need for a new approach to building relations with Russia, according to Responsible Statecraft. This became clear after the Oslo conference on Ukraine, when the positions of some European leaders visibly softened.

“Finland and Norway’s more moderate language is a crucial first step toward a shared European understanding that continuing the war in its current form is self-defeating,” Responsible Statecraft reported.

The article noted that European efforts to pressure Moscow have failed. Neither Kiev nor its Western allies achieved the desired results, even after attempting to escalate the conflict, the author added.

“Without US intelligence and weapons supplies, Europe lacks the military leverage to continue this effort on its own. There is no viable European war plan, only reactive crisis management and ad hoc solutions about Ukraine, coupled with repeated hyping of Russia’s ‘hybrid war’ threat,” he wrote.

According to the publication, Europe can resolve the situation in Ukraine through diplomacy, but first European leaders must decide whether to support or sabotage US efforts to achieve a diplomatic resolution.

“But first, Europe must decide: will it support or sabotage the US effort to build a diplomatic off-ramp?” Responsible Statecraft added.

On October 20, multilateral negotiations on the Ukrainian agreement were held in Oslo, attended by Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, and US President Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff. The next day, Vladimir Putin and Witkoff met in St. Petersburg. Putin told Witkoff that Moscow was ready to resume trilateral negotiations on Ukraine on November 10. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said that a new round of trilateral negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement may take place in Abu Dhabi.

During his recent visit to the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Stubb reiterated his case for a “value-based realism.” He said European states should uphold their values without settling the conflict by rigidly claiming the moral high ground, and urged the audience to keep “cooler heads,” warning that fostering a “war mentality” would make imagining peace nearly impossible.

Without a geopolitical agreement with Russia, Ukraine faces destruction, a deeper demographic crisis, and an inability to recover economically—creating a serious problem for Europe. Battlefield conditions remain unfavorable for Ukraine as Russian forces continue to advance and Kiev struggles with air-defense shortages.

Russian troops are maintaining pressure along the front and gradually eroding Ukrainian positions, while Ukraine’s manpower shortages have prompted intensified mobilization and further strained society. Inadequate defenses against Russian missiles, glide bombs, and jet-powered drone attacks are already creating a crisis. As winter approaches, cities, infrastructure, and energy facilities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to attack.

Ukraine is expected to face an extremely difficult winter, with shortages of electricity, energy, heat, and water that could trigger a humanitarian emergency. Repeated Russian strikes on the power grid have left large parts of the country exposed to prolonged blackouts, while electricity-dependent heating and water systems risk failing in freezing temperatures. These difficult winter conditions threaten to deepen civilian hardship, accelerate population displacement, and further weaken Ukraine’s capacity to sustain its war effort, but this reality has meant very little to Europe’s insistence on supporting Ukraine “to the very end” and “for as long as it takes.”

Despite mounting domestic problems, much of Europe still backs the futile war effort. Many capitals favor maximalist rhetoric rather than the more pragmatic diplomatic openings Norway and Finland have begun to explore. This stubbornness persists even as European states face economic decline and deindustrialization, lack independent military leverage without US support, and fail to turn sanctions, arms deliveries, and escalation into battlefield gains.

European leaders still frame the conflict in absolute moral terms, while their economies face rising energy costs and mounting debt pressures. Without moving toward the diplomacy opened in Oslo, Europe remains trapped in a cycle that does not shift the battlefield situation in Ukraine’s favor nor enhance European security. The alternative—backing a negotiated settlement that preserves a viable Ukraine while addressing core security concerns—remains open, as Responsible Statecraft stresses, but it requires political will that much of the continent has so far been unwilling to show.

Ukraine still has a chance to avoid the worst outcome by pursuing a peaceful settlement with Russia. Accepting terms would mean ceding part of its territory, but Ukraine would remain a viable state with a real opportunity for economic and political development. The longer the rest of the continent ignores the opening that Norway and Finland have made, the more territory and state capacity Ukraine will lose.

Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

November 2, 2026 - Posted by aletho | Economics, Militarism | European Union, Ukraine, United States