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Land-based ‘Zircon’ hypersonic missile – a strategic game changer

By Drago Bosnic | June 8, 2022

In (American) English, when describing something incredibly difficult to do, the term “rocket science” is used. And indeed, rocket science, or rocketry for short, is a branch of science dealing with rocket and missile propulsion. There are multiple ways to create viable rocket propulsion. However, in this case, we’ll be talking about one very specific type of rocket, or more precisely, missile propulsion – scramjets. Supersonic combustion ramjet, or scramjet for short, is a form of airbreathing jet engine that uses the forward motion of the engine to produce thrust.

The main difference between a regular ramjet and a scramjet is that combustion takes place in supersonic airflow in the latter. Although the technology dates back to the 1950s, its practical implementation is quite recent. The first working scramjet in the world was the Russian “GLL Kholod” missile which flew in 1991, reaching a speed of nearly Mach 6, making it also the world’s first working hypersonic scramjet design. Unfortunately, the collapse of the USSR stopped funding for the project. The US government (NASA in particular) realized just how far behind Russia they were at the time, so they decided to provide funding for the project, with Russia sharing its know-how in return.

Officially starting in 1985, the Reagan administration launched the National Aerospace Plane (NASP) program intended to develop two X-30 aircraft capable of single stage to orbit (SSTO) flight, as well as horizontal takeoff and landing from conventional runways. However, the program was unsuccessful, with the US Congress deciding to cut funding for the project in 1993, after being told the two X-30 aircraft would cost at least $15 billion. After the project was scrapped, NASA approached Russia’s Central Institute of Aviation Motors (CIAM) and took part in tests conducted throughout the 1990s. After the cooperation ended, the US tried developing a similar capability. Still, after numerous projects, including the Boeing X-51 “Waverider”, which was a cooperative endeavor by the US Air Force (USAF), DARPA, NASA, Boeing and Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne, the US lacks a working scramjet missile. The X-51 had four flight tests between 2010 and 2014, with the first three failing. The last test was the only success, after which the project was canceled.

At present, there are only a handful of countries possessing the knowledge and resources to conduct scramjet testing. This includes the US, China, India, Brazil and the EU (Germany and France in particular). However, there’s currently only one country in the world with a 100% functioning hypersonic scramjet missile – Russia. Despite the disastrous 1990s and the societal and economic shock it experienced, Russia still managed to not just successfully develop hypersonic scramjet missiles, but also get quite ahead of the rest of the world in this technology. The most prominent example of this is the 3M22 “Zircon”, a scramjet-powered maneuvering hypersonic cruise missile. Although it is officially an anti-ship missile, applications are most likely already multi-role, as is the case with nearly all other Russian missiles.

The “Zircon’s” official testing started in 2012 with air-launched prototypes fired from a Tu-22M3 long-range bomber. The tests soon moved to ground-based and ship-borne platforms, with the famed “Admiral Gorshkov” frigate being the most prominent surface combatant used as “Zircon’s” sea-based test-launching platform. By late 2021, it was reported that the missile had also been test-fired from the K-560 “Severodvinsk” Yasen-class nuclear-powered submarine, both from the surface and submerged. The total number of tests is classified, but the publicly acknowledged ones put the number of test launches at approximately two dozen, all of which have been successful. The “Zircon” has been improved heavily over the years, in terms of both speed and maneuverability. The missile is capable of achieving Mach 9 (approximately 3.1 km per second, or over 11,000 km/h), although some sources claim that it can go up to Mach 10.

The missile was salvo-launched in December 2021 and again in February 2022, both of which have been successful, confirming the serial production variant is up to the Russian military standards. In May, Russian MoD released a video of a new test-launch where the “Zircon” hit a sea target at a distance of over 1,000 km. The program of state trials was formally completed with that launch. However, Russia also announced that the land-based, coastal defense version of the missile would also be deployed, quite possibly in the coming months or by year’s end. A land-based “Zircon” hypersonic missile will be a crucial addition to the Russian military, much like the “Bastion-P” coastal missile system using the P-800 “Oniks” supersonic anti-ship missile. With its 1500 km range and Mach 9 speed, the “Zircon’s” speed is over 3 times greater, while its range is nearly double that of the P-800, which has also been used in Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine.

As “Zircon” flies at hypersonic speed within the atmosphere, the air pressure in front of it forms a plasma cloud, absorbing radio waves and making it effectively invisible to radar, resulting in what is colloquially known as plasma stealth. With plasma stealth, hypersonic speed and sea-skimming, intercepting an approaching “Zircon” is effectively impossible. Its sheer speed is such that the enemy would have mere seconds to detect, target and shoot down the incoming missile. However, the enemy would also need to be able to predict the missile’s flight path, which is simply impossible, as the missile is designed for extreme maneuverability, making predictions based on a ballistic trajectory null.

It’s not a question of if, but when Russia will deploy the land-based “Zircon” missile. With the sea-based version making large surface combatants effectively obsolete, the land-based one would make it pointless to deploy any large formations or even bother with setting up air and missile defenses on the mainland. Due to its speed, maneuverability and thermonuclear capability, the “Zircon” is yet another major strategic addition to the Russian military. Combined with the Mach 12-capable “Kinzhal” air-launched hypersonic missile and the Mach 28-capable “Avangard” hypersonic glide vehicle, the “Zircon” ensures swift destruction of any aggressor.

Drago Bosnic is an independent geopolitical and military analyst.

June 8, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | | Leave a comment

Electric transport miracle fail: Wiesbaden reintroduces diesel buses

Free West Media | June 6, 2022

In Wiesbaden, Germany, the electric bus era is already over before it really began. The city is now buying conventional buses again. There were just too many problems with electric transport, they say.

The city had initially bought 56 battery buses. The Federal Environment Ministry added 45 million euros of taxpayers’ money. The then Minister Schulze declared: “Wiesbaden is setting a good example and showing how environmentally friendly and attractive public transport is possible.” For the Lord Mayor, the first buses marked the beginning of the “official battery bus age”. A total of 220 new electric buses were to be procured according to original plans.

In practical terms, the climate miracle – the electric bus – sadly failed to deliver. Again and again buses broke down, they had to be recalled by the manufacturer and the municipal transport company ESWE had to ask for understanding from passengers. And because of the hilly terrain in the capital of the state of Hesse, the electric buses did not even manage half the range of the diesel-powered buses.

A battery charge is said to last only 150 kilometres, and in icy temperatures and with a full bus even up to 100 kilometres less. A diesel-powered public bus travels 300 to 400 kilometres a day – uphill and downhill and also costs up to three times less than an e-bus.

The photovoltaic system installed on the roof of the station has also had to be dismantled “due to update fire-protection regulations”.

In the end, plans for a separate power station at the depot so that the many limping electric buses could be charged, were scrapped and further expensive green transport expenditures are off the table. With the e-buses in disrepair, the power station has become superfluous. For the time being, the transport authority is looking for a cheap place to park all the electric buses that are no longer in use.

June 7, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | | Leave a comment

The Permanent Pandemic

eugyppius – June 6, 2022

A Twitter friend highlights this bizarre moment from a speech Karl Lauterbach gave on 3 June to a convention for private insurers in Berlin:

We’re going to have a special situation [in the Fall]; we also expect a strong influenza wave and many RSV infections. This has to do with the fact that immunity has declined in recent years because the containment measures have also protected against these other infections, so an immunity deficit has built up there, and this immunity deficit is now significant for the wave we’re coming up to. So we’re dealing with a new wave of Covid, and we’re dealing with a wave of influenza, and we’re dealing with RSV. You might say RSV primarily affects children – well, if you have this substantial deficit in immunity, then RSV is also dangerous for older people. We have to deal with that too. We also have to protect those who have autoimmune problems, and these autoimmune problems mean that the vaccination works, but it doesn’t work so well, and for that we need special vaccination strategies, we need special protection strategies …

Every time I post about this clown, I resolve that it’s the last time. Even beyond his deepening Corona mania and clear signs of mental illness, he’s just such an obvious loser – a mediocrity who spent years on the fringes of his own party as an eccentric back-bencher, known primarily for his fear of salt. He came to prominence very much like Eric Feigl-Ding, as a pseudo-epidemiologist on Twitter, where he relentlessly inflated the risk of SARS-2, denied elementary properties of the human immune system and serially misinterpreted even very simple studies.

He’s only worth quoting for two reasons. The lesser of them, is the fact that he’s not-so-subtly helping Moderna with the marketing for their three-in-one combined RSV, Corona and influenza vaccine, which is now in development. Henceforth, the Virus That We Have To Fear In The Fall will always be whatever virus the pharmaecutical companies are hoping to vaccinate against.

The greater point here, though, is that his remarks reveal the total circularity of pandemic management. The problem now is that our measures have caused a population-wide immunity deficit, for which there is no solution but a continuation of measures. We are so far into this farce, that even Lauterbach can proclaim publicly that restrictions have become their own cause, a self-perpetuating end unto themselves, and nobody even blinks or reports on his remarkable admission.

June 6, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | Leave a comment

US may lift ban on Iranian oil – Vitol

Samizdat | June 6, 2022

The Biden administration might let more sanctioned Iranian oil flow into the global markets in an attempt to rein in fuel prices at home amid the run-up to the midterm elections in the US, according to a major independent crude trader.

“If the midterms are dominated by the need to get gas prices lower in America, turning a somewhat greater blind eye to the sanctioned barrels flowing out is probably something you might expect to see,” Mike Muller, the head of Asia at Vitol Group, told Dubai-based Gulf Intelligence on Sunday.

Gasoline prices have doubled in the US since President Joe Biden was inaugurated in January last year, according to last week’s data from the non-profit American Automobile Association (AAA). Global crude prices have been rallying in recent months, fueled by restrictions on Russian exports. On Monday, crude hit $120 a barrel as Saudi Arabia hiked prices for Asia.

The Trump administration reimposed sanctions on Iran’s oil, petrochemicals, shipping and other sectors in 2018 due to concerns over the country’s nuclear program. Talks between Tehran and world powers stalled in March and, according to Muller, the window of opportunity for the Biden administration to reach an agreement with Tehran has almost closed, but it could allow the transportation of Iranian crude anyway. In April, the US seized Iranian oil carried by a Russian tanker. Iran currently exports most of its oil to China.

June 6, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , | Leave a comment

Ba.5 is a “Variant for Boosted People”

South Africa vs. Portugal: Same Variant, Opposite Outcomes

By Igor Chudov | June 5, 2022

Summary: The BA4/5 sister variants currently dominate two countries: South Africa and Portugal. South Africa is barely vaccinated (only 35% had a vaccine, 5% had a booster), whereas Portugal is 95% vaccinated and 70% boosted. The situations in these countries could not be any more different: while Ba.4 and Ba.5 were mere blips on the radar in South Africa, these same variants are driving a deadly wave of Covid in highly-vaccinated Portugal, with deaths among the Portuguese nearing January peak and showing few signs of abating.

South Africa and Portugal form a two-country controlled experiment: vaccinate one country and do not vaccinate another, and expose both to Covid Ba4/5. The difference in outcomes is telling.

Let’s explore. South Africa and Portugal are on the opposite sides of the vaccination spectrum: South Africa is barely vaccinated, while in Portugal, reportedly, “there is no one left to vaccinate” (read that story, it is something).

Back in 2021, Portuguese “health experts” and officials promised upcoming “herd immunity”, which Portugal would enjoy once the harshly enforced near-total vaccination would complete. The majority of Portuguese citizens “believed in science” and thought very highly of themselves for that. Most Portuguese “health experts” and officials dismissed ignorant, science-denying protesters, pictured below, who were objecting to forced vaccination.

A year later, things did not quite work out as planned. Instead of herd immunity, Portugal is in the midst of a deadly wave of “Ba.4/5 variants” causing another increase in deaths, with no end in sight.

The deaths in Portugal are coming fairly close to the level of the first Omicron wave and are still rising, so there is no telling how high they will go. In South Africa, however, deaths are about 1/6th of their winter deaths and generally look like Ba4/5 wave was a non-event there.

Mind you, Portugal has a decent Western medical system and South Africa is a poorer country.

So,

  • Both countries are experiencing a “BA4/5” wave
  • It was no big deal for South Africa
  • The same wave is deadly for the overboosted Portuguese and the deaths keep rising
  • Covid looks to be “mostly over” for unvaccinated South Africa and is “only getting started” for totally vaccinated and mostly boosted Portugal.

While no two countries are alike, this is a very alarming finding. Mind you, just about everyone in Portugal had Covid by the end of last winter. Thus, this current wave of infections and deaths in Portugal is driven by reinfections.

Why are reinfections happening? Because boosted people are unable to acquire proper immunity upon infection. Thus, they are forced to endure endless Covid reinfections, that further damage their immune systems, inviting more illness.

AIDS-Like “Chronic Covid” is Taking Over Europe, Australia and NZ

I am very sorry for the people of Portugal. I hope that someone can come up with something to make them healthy again. To make that happen, Portugal needs to fire and prosecute the crooks who got the country into the current situation and look for real solutions, with the crooks removed from influence.

What about other countries?

Ba.5 had an early start in Portugal, so it had time to play out. In other countries, as of now, Ba.5 (and Ba.4, which I will skip for brevity) is growing alarmingly rapidly in highly vaccinated states of the US, as well as in Denmark, the UK and Australia.

Ba.5 is growing in USA, doubling each week. This article is worth checking out.

While BA.2.12.1 gained an advantage by being more transmissible than BA.2 before it, the two newer variants are said to be making inroads at least in part because of their abilities to reinfect.

“We now report findings from a systematic antigenic analysis of these surging Omicron subvariants,” says a recent paper published to the BioRxiv preprint server. “BA.2.12.1 is only modestly (1.8-fold) more resistant to sera from vaccinated and boosted individuals than BA.2. On the other hand, BA.4/5 is substantially (4.2-fold) more resistant and thus more likely to lead to vaccine breakthrough infections.”

What the article does not say, of course, is that Covid-19 is evolving in the often-reinfected boosted people to not only evade immunity but to take advantage of the no-longer-effective antibodies and deprogrammed immune systems, while giving its sufferers no long-lasting protection after reach reinfection.

CDC variant tracker lumps Ba4 and Ba5 together and shows that they double in incidence every week:

Omicron is Becoming More Severe

We may soon see yet one more “Covid wave” in the US and several other countries. If South Africa is any guide, it is unlikely to affect the unvaccinated-recovered people as much because it did not do so in South Africa. However, heavily vaccinated and boosted cities and countries may experience another exhausting wave of Covid.

Unfortunately, likely Ba.5 is more severe than Ba.2. It is more fusogenic and thus may be somewhat more lethal to the people to get it.

Summary to my readers: Do not panic, get a healthy tan, and stay in good shape. If you are unvaxed and had Covid already, most likely you will be fine, just like South Africans are. There will be tons of variants coming in the coming months and years, so no reason to overstress yourself over this one.

Good luck to all.

June 5, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , | Leave a comment

Foreign-supplied tanks destroyed in Kiev – Russia

Samizdat | June 5, 2022

Russian airstrikes have destroyed foreign-supplied tanks in the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, Moscow said on Sunday.

Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov said during a regular briefing that Russian forces carried out airstrikes “on the outskirts of Kiev, destroying the T-72 tanks and other armored vehicles that were supplied by Eastern European countries and kept in railcar repair facilities.”

The spokesman did not specify where the tanks came from, but Poland previously said it had donated T-72 tanks to Ukraine.

Konashenkov said that military targets were also hit in Donbass, as well as in eastern and southern Ukraine, including multiple rocket launchers and a US-made mobile counterfire radar.

Ukraine’s General Staff earlier reported that Kiev was among the areas hit by Russian forces. Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that one person was hospitalized.

On Saturday night, the Donetsk authorities said Ukrainian troops shelled the city, killing five civilians and wounding 20.

Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly accused each other of shelling residential areas and killing civilians.

June 5, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

Poland Suddenly Realized That It Can’t Indefinitely Fund Ukraine & Its Refugees

By Andrew Korbyko | One World Press | June 2, 2022

The nostalgic neo-imperial rush of reconstituting the long-lost Commonwealth through Poland’s recent merger with Ukraine into a de facto confederation proved to be short-lived after Warsaw suddenly realized that it can’t indefinitely fund Kiev and its refugees. Everything seemed picture-perfect at first after President Duda and his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky lavished praise on one another’s countries in late May while speaking before the Rada. They wistfully spoke about returning to the halcyon days when there were no borders between them and pledged to create a customs union to that end, among other comprehensive connectivity initiatives. This de facto confederation sounded good on paper but Poland quickly realized that its budget simply can’t afford this ambitious geopolitical project.

The first signs of trouble came just a few days later after Prime Minister Morawiecki demanded that nearby Norway immediately give all of the extra profit it’s made from energy sales thus far this year to Warsaw and Kiev. Oslo of course refused, which was then followed by Poland complaining that Germany didn’t replace the 200 older tanks that Warsaw gave to Kiev with newer ones like it claimed its neighbor had promised. Berlin denied that any such deal was ever clinched, which ultimately left Poland in the doldrums after it finally dawned on its decision makers that they just got played by Germany into transferring half of their country’s tanks to that former Soviet Republic in exchange for literally nothing at all.

Upon panicking, Poland then demanded that the UN’s headquarters for Ukrainian reconstruction be based in its country instead of the one that the international community will purportedly try to rebuild, most likely through the scheme that Zelensky shared during the World Economic Summit in Davos whereby his partners can literally take control over “a particular region of Ukraine, city, community or industry.” Warsaw obviously wants to get the lion’s share of this or at the very least skim some of the funds off the top for supposedly facilitating this process, which can in turn help it make up for the untold billions of dollars that it’s already spent on Ukraine, ergo why it wants to host that headquarters.

That demand, like practically everything else that Poland has asked for thus far such as Duda’s earlier idea during his last visit to Kiev that the US-led West reinvest Russia’s stolen foreign assets into rebuilding Ukraine (which would serve to subsidize Poland’s de facto confederation with it), wasn’t enthusiastically embraced by its allies like Warsaw expected. It might still come to pass, even if only in part, but Poland now knows that it can’t continue indefinitely funding its geopolitical project with Ukraine to the same extent as it had expected. That’s why it’s suddenly slashing its generous aid to Ukrainian refugees, cutting off free fuel deliveries, and positioning itself as Kiev’s “economic hub”.

The ruling “Law & Justice” (PiS per its Polish abbreviation) party’s Ukrainization of Polish society was intended to weaponize these “new arrivals” as “agents of influence” in the other half of the de facto reconstituted Commonwealth. They expected this to be financed by Brussels via its promised refugee aid tranche of around €150 million, which hadn’t yet been disbursed as of last weekend. In any case, Poland is demanding billions more in aid, after which Politico reported in their latest article about the surging costs of that country’s refugee program that “Brussels also said Poland could tap €1.2 billion in unused funds from REACT EU… to support Ukrainian refugees.”

The EU also approved approximately €35 billion in grants and loans to Poland as part of a COVID recovery program yet is withholding this assistance until it complies with Brussels’ demands to reform its judiciary. In other words, Poland was played by everyone– especially Germany – into taking on the bloc’s leading role in comprehensively supporting Kiev and its millions of refugees, only to be left in the lurch without any substantial assistance until it unilaterally concedes on a significant issue of national interest connected to its strategic autonomy. The irony is that while Poland sought to colonize Ukraine, it was Poland itself that was just further colonized by the EU.

The lesson to be learned is that some countries’ leaderships can be easily manipulated by appealing to their imperial nostalgia just like PiS was by its so-called “allies”. By pushing them to take the lead in “temporarily” shouldering the costs of what’s portrayed as a “multilateral effort”, external forces can get them to go so far that they can’t reverse their policies without incurring some serious cost to themselves, even if only reputational or connected to electoral politics. The manipulated leadership is therefore pressured to stay the course no matter what with the expectation that “just a little bit more” is all that’s needed to finally unlock the promised funds that might never come.

In an ideal world, everything would have gone according to PiS’ plan. The US-led West would have given Warsaw its billions of dollars’ worth of seized Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine in accordance with its desires. Norway would have been guilted to chip in and Germany would have also already replenished the whopping one-half of Poland’s tank arsenal that PiS dispatched to Ukraine, while the UN would have unreservedly established its Ukrainian reconstruction headquarters in Warsaw. Brussels, meanwhile, wouldn’t have attached any political strings to its promised refugee aid to Poland. None of that has yet to happen, though, and instead Poland is now forced to slash funding to Kiev and its refugees.

The Neo-Commonwealth project therefore isn’t off to a good start, having already been hated by genuine Polish conservative-nationalists from the get-go and now even possibly triggering the wrath of those liberal-globalists in society who demand that everyone chip in to continue funding Kiev and its refugees to the same extent as before. Poland simply can’t afford that though which is why it’s had to walk back its initially ambitious plans, though only after having already committed to merging with Ukraine into a de facto confederation, a game-changing development that it’s already too invested in to reverse. All the while, the West is laughing at the “village idiot” that it easily got to do its bidding.

June 4, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , , | Leave a comment

Trump Said We Should “Get Along with Russia”. He’s Right

BY MIKE WHITNEY • UNZ REVIEW • JUNE 4, 2022

Look at this map of Ukraine.

Can you see what’s going on? The Russians are creating a buffer zone along their western perimeter.

Why are they doing that? What benefit do they derive from a buffer zone?

Well, a buffer zone creates a distance between Russia and Ukraine which Putin thinks is necessary since Ukraine is threatening to join NATO. So, he’s creating his own DMZ on his western flank.

But what does that prove?

It proves that we’ve been lied to from the very beginning. Putin was not planning to reconstruct the Soviet Empire like the media told us. He did not want to seize the Capitol, Kiev, and he did not want to conquer the entire Ukrainian landmass. That was all baloney.

What he wanted to do, is what he has done.

Don’t take my word for it, look at the map. You don’t need CNN or Rachel Maddow to tell you what you can see with your own two eyes. This is the reality ‘on the ground’.

This is a buffer zone. It creates a distance between Russia and Ukraine, it protects the ethnic Russians in the Donbass region, and it establishes a landbridge to Crimea where Russia’s vital deep-water port of Sevastopol is located. In other words, it achieves what Putin wanted to achieve from the very beginning, that is, enhanced security along his western border.

What we are seeing is the basic parameters of Russia’s “Special Military Operation”. Yes, many people will prefer to call it a “war”, but the term is not nearly as precise as “Special Military Operation”.

Why?

Because “Special Military Operation” indicates that the main objective is to save the lives of the ethnic Russians who had been under constant bombardment for the last 8 years and, also, to create a security zone that prevents a hostile NATO army and its missile system from being deployed to Russia’s border. These are the goals of the “Special Military Operation”; to “demiliterize” and “denazify” the area under Russia’s control. Get it?

Will the “Special Military Operation” go beyond the Donbass to Kiev and cities in the west?

Probably, not. Going beyond the Donbass would likely involve a complete mobilization of men and resources which has not yet taken place in Russia. By not mobilizing, Putin is signaling to the west that he will limit his operation to the area on the map. (With some slight expansion) Putin is indicating that his main concern is security, and since his concerns were casually brushed aside by Biden and Zelensky, he took matters into his own hands. In other words, he imposed his own settlement.

Okay, but if these are the parameters of the Special Military Operation, then what are the chances of a wider war?

That depends on Biden. If Washington continues on the path of escalation –by sending weapons systems that can strike targets in Russia– then Putin will respond. We should know that by now. Putin is not going to back down no matter what. If Washington wants to up-the-ante, then they should prepare for an equal response. That’s the way it’s going to work. For now, the “Special Military Operation” is just a “Special Military Operation”. But when it becomes a war, then all bets are off. Then we will see a full mobilisation, a complete rupture in US-Russo relations, and a halt to all hydrocarbon flows from east to west.

Do you think Europe and the United States are prepared for that? Do you think the EU can replace the 25% of the oil and 40% of all the natural gas it presently imports from Russia? Do you have a wind-powered car that will get you to work on time or a factory that will run on solar power? Do you have a plan for heating your house with hydrogen or perhaps a battery from an old Prius?

No, you don’t, and neither does Europe. Europe runs on fossil fuels. America runs on fossil fuels And the more fossil fuel that is consumed, the more the economy grows. The less fossil fuel is consumed, the more the economy shrinks. Are you prepared for life in a shrinking economy with high unemployment, skyrocketing inflation, unending recession, and deepening social malaise brought on by your government’s misguided desire to “stick it to Putin”?

That’s a bad choice, isn’t it? Especially when a face-saving deal can be made at anytime. In fact, Biden could stop the fighting tomorrow if he extended the hand of friendship to Putin and declared that, yes, Ukraine will accept neutrality til the end of time and NATO expansion will stop ASAP.

That’s all it would take. Just extend the olive branch and Putin will ‘call off the dogs’. Guaranteed.

That’s what this guy would have done. Remember him? Remember how bad things were when Trump was in office and gas was 2 bucks a gallon, and everyone had a job, and there was no inflation, and violent crime was under control?

Listen to what Trump had to say about Russia:

“Well, I hope we do have good relations with Russia. I say it loud and clear and I’ve been saying it for years. I think it’s a good thing if we have a great relations with Russia. That’s very important. And, I believe, some day that will happen. It’s a big country, it’s a nuclear country, it’s a country we should get along with, and I think we will eventually get along with Russia.”

He’s right, isn’t he? We need to get along with Russia and put an end to the fighting before these morons drag us into World War 3.

June 4, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , | Leave a comment

How the war will end…

By Gilbert Doctorow | June 3, 2022 

It has been my rule not to join the vast majority of my fellow political commentators at the scrimmage line in sterile debates of the one subject of the day, week, month that has attracted their full attention. Their debates are sterile because they ignore all but a few parameters of reality in Russia, in Ukraine. For them, ignorance is bliss. They do not stir from their armchairs nor do they switch channels to get information from the other side of the barricades, meaning from Russia.

I will violate this overriding rule and just this once join the debate over how Russia’s ‘special military operation’ will end. Nearly all of my peers in Western media and academia give you read-outs based on their shared certainty over Russia’s military and political ambition from the start of the ‘operation,’ how Russia failed by underestimating Ukrainian resilience and professionalism, how Putin must now save face by capturing and holding some part of Ukraine. The subject of disagreement is whether at the end of the campaign the borders will revert to the status quo before 24 February in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality or whether the Russians will have to entirely give up claims on Donbas and possibly even on Crimea.

As for commentators in the European Union, there is exaggerated outrage over alleged Russian aggression, over any possible revision of European borders as enshrined in the Helsinki Act of 1975 and subsequent recommitments by all parties to territorial inviolability of the signatory States. There is the stench of hypocrisy from this crowd as they overlook what they wrought in the deconstruction of Yugoslavia and, in particular, the hiving off of Kosovo from the state of Serbia.

I mention all of the foregoing as background to what I see now going on in Russian political life, namely open and lively discussion of whether the country should annex the territories of Ukraine newly ‘liberated’ by forces of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics with decisive assistance of the Russian military. By admission of President Zelensky yesterday, these territories now amount to 20% of the Ukrainian state as it was configured in 2014.

In the past several weeks, when Russia concentrated its men and materiel on the Donbas and began to score decisive victories, most notably following the taking of Mariupol and capitulation of the nationalist fighters in the Azovstal complex, leading public officials in the DPR, the LPR and the Kherson oblast have called for quick accession of their lands to the Russian Federation with or without referendums. In Moscow, politicians, including Duma members, have called for the same, claiming that a fait accompli could be achieved already in July.

However, as I see and hear on political talk shows and even in simple political reportage on mainstream Russian radio like Business FM, a counter argument has raised its head. Those on this side ask whether the populations of the potential new constituent parts of the RF are likely to be loyal to Russia. They ask if there is truly a pro-Russian majority in the population should a referendum be organized.

This is all very interesting. It surely is a continuation of the internal debate in Moscow back in 2014 when the decision was taken to grant Crimea immediate entry into the RF while denying the requests for similar treatment from the political leaders of the Donbas oblasts.

However, there surely are other considerations weighing in on the Kremlin that I have not seen aired so far. They may be likened to the considerations of France following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, when the possible reunification of Germany was the talk of the day. Sharp witted observers said at the time that President Mitterand liked Germany so much that he wanted to continue to see two of them. Today Vladimir Putin may like Ukraine and its brethren Slavs so much that he wants to see three or four of them.

To be specific, from the very beginning the number one issue for Moscow as it entered upon its military adventure in Ukraine was geopolitical: to ensure that Ukraine will never again be used as a platform to threaten Russian state security, that Ukraine will never become a NATO member. We may safely assume that internationally guaranteed and supervised neutrality of Ukraine will be part of any peace settlement. It would be nicely supported by a new reality on the ground: namely by carving out several Russia-friendly and Russia-dependent mini-states on the former territory of East and South Ukraine. At the same time this solution removes from the international political agenda many of the accusations that have been made against Russia which support the vicious sanctions now being applied to the RF at great cost to Europe and to the world at large: there will be no territorial acquisitions.

If Kiev is compelled to acknowledge the independence of these two, three or more former oblasts as demanded by their populations, that is a situation fully compatible with the United Nations Charter. In a word, a decision by the Kremlin not to annex parts of Ukraine beyond the Crimea, which has long been quietly accepted by many in Europe, would prepare the way for a gradual return of civilized relations within Europe and even, eventually, with the United States

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2022

June 3, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , , | Leave a comment

Sri Lanka seizes Russian plane

Samizdat | June 3, 2022

The authorities in Sri Lanka have grounded a civilian aircraft belonging to Russian carrier Aeroflot, and arrested the plane, local newspaper News First reported on Friday.

The Colombo High Commercial Court reportedly issued the arrest warrant following a complaint filed by Irish company Celestial Aviation Trading Limited, which is affiliated with aircraft lessor GECAS.

After Western states placed sanctions on Russia, aircraft lessors demanded that Moscow return leased planes for fear of secondary sanctions, and as the restrictions barred them from pursuing financial relations with Russian air carriers.

Russia, however, kept the majority of the planes, stating that the demand to return them violated lease contracts. It also started registering the planes in the country so they could continue to operate. According to the Airfleets portal, the aircraft detained in Sri Lanka received Russian registration at the end of April, and was registered in Bermuda before that.

Aeroflot announced that a hearing on the release of the aircraft is scheduled for June 8.

Russian tour operator Intourist told the press that people who were waiting to fly home on the detained plane were accommodated in a nearby hotel.

EU sanctions introduced in February banned the supply of civil aircraft and spare parts to Russia, as well as their maintenance and insurance. In addition, the sanctions obligated lessors to terminate their existing contracts with Russian airlines.

In early March, the Federal Air Transport Agency notified airlines of cases of cancelation of airworthiness certificates for aircraft registered abroad, while in mid-March, the Bermuda Civil Aviation Authority (BCAA) suspended the airworthiness certificates of aircraft from Russian airlines registered in Bermuda. Russian attempts to re-register the planes in the country were met with criticism, as some countries questioned the safety of flights on planes not checked by internationally-recognized registers.

At the end of May, the Chinese aviation authorities closed their airspace to Boeing and Airbus planes operated by Russian airlines, as “dual registration” of these aircraft does not meet international requirements.

June 3, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

Family worried as Iranian held incommunicado in Swedish detention

Hamid Nouri, a former Iranian official, has been jailed in Sweden since 2019
Press TV – June 1, 2022

A former Iranian official, wrongfully accused and jailed in Sweden, has been held incommunicado for almost a month, his relatives say.

The Iranian Judiciary’s Media Center cited Hamid Nouri’s family members as saying that he has not been able to contact them for 28 days now.

The Swedish judiciary has reportedly cut off communication with his family after relocating him to another detention center, leading to serious concerns among his family in Iran.

Nouri was arrested upon arrival in Sweden at Stockholm Airport in November 2019 and immediately imprisoned. He has been held in solitary confinement for over two years.

Swedish prosecutors have requested the maximum penalty of life imprisonment for Nouri, accusing the former Iranian judiciary official of prisoner abuse.

The charges against Nouri stem from accusations leveled against him by members of the anti-Iran terrorist Mujahedin Khalq Organization (MKO), who claim Nouri was involved in the execution and torture of MKO members in 1988. Nouri vehemently rejects the allegations.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has denounced his detention as “illegal.”

Reports say Swedish judicial authorities have been preventing Nouri from contacting his family since moving him to a different detention center.

Upon arrest, he was forbidden for around eight months from making phone calls to his family members, and barred from meeting them in person for two years.

June 2, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

Reports of OPEC+ death are greatly exaggerated

BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | INDIAN PUNCHLINE | JUNE 2, 2022 

The fact that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states held a joint ministerial meeting with their Russian counterpart Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in the Saudi capital of Riyadh at this point in time in global politics conveys a powerful message in itself. 

To drive home the message in no uncertain terms, the Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said at a press conference following the ministerial on Wednesday that the GCC member-countries share a common stance with respect to the crisis in Ukraine. (The news conference was broadcast live by the Al-Arabiya TV channel.) 

“The countries of the Persian Gulf share a common stance regarding the Ukrainian crisis and its negative consequences, especially with regard to the food security of other countries,” Al Saud said. 

For his part, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the media that “the GCC countries understand the nature of the conflict between Russia and the West.” Earlier, during a bilateral with Lavrov who was on a 2-day visit, Al Saud said the “the kingdom’s position regarding the crisis in Ukraine is based on the principles of international law and support for efforts aimed at achieving a political solution to the crisis.”

After the meeting, Lavrov said the GCC countries will not join the West in imposing sanctions on Moscow over the conflict in Ukraine. In his words, “Aspects of the international situation, which are connected with the events unfolded by the West around Ukraine, are well understood by our partners from the Gulf Cooperation Council states.”

Lavrov added, “We appreciate and reaffirmed today once again the balanced position that they take towards this issue at international forums, and in practice, refusing to join the illegitimate, unilateral Western sanctions that were introduced against Russia.” 

Lavrov said Moscow and Gulf countries intended to further develop their partnership in sharp contrast with the growing tensions between Russia and the US and its European allies. After meeting with the top diplomats of the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman in Riyadh, Lavrov said, “We reaffirmed our focus on the comprehensive development of our partnership, including in the new conditions that are emerging in the world economy in the context of the policies of our Western colleagues.” 

Looking ahead, Lavrov expressed satisfaction that “We reaffirmed our focus on the comprehensive development of our partnership, including in the new conditions that are emerging in the world economy in the context of the policies of our Western colleagues.”  

The timing of the GCC-Russia ministerial and Lavrov’s visit to Riyadh is highly significant at a juncture when the Biden Administration is pulling out all the stops to repair the US’ fractured relationship with Saudi Arabia ever since Candidate Biden famously christened the Kingdom as a “Pariah state” and the Washington establishment launched a concerted campaign to defame the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman personally over the killing of the ex-CIA consultant Jamal Khashoggi. 

The latest reports in the US media have spoken of Biden’s interest to personally make amends with the Saudi Prince by visiting Riyadh and meeting with him. This is after Biden’s refusal to speak with the Prince so far or to have any dealings with the latter in any form!  

The volte-face in Biden’s approach to Saudi Arabia is to be attributed to the realisation in Washington that to isolate Russia and weaken that country permanently, there is an imperative need to gain control of the world oil market, which in turn necessitates the break-up of the Russian-Saudi concord regulating world oil output in the recent years.   

In a nutshell, Saudi Arabia has overnight become a “swing state” in the US’ strategic calculus whose stance on the Ukraine conflict is going to be of momentous consequence to the Biden administration’s agenda to weaken Russia. 

Indeed, Saudi Arabia’s potential as a “swing state” has been in the making ever since 2006 when late King Abdullah used his first trip outside the Middle East since becoming the Saudi ruler to visit China and India. It was the first visit by a Saudi king to China since the two countries established diplomatic relations in 1990, and the first such visit to India since 1955. Perceptive observers saw the Saudi monarch’s tour presaging an era of reduced influence for the United States in Riyadh and of Saudi friendship with a widening spectrum of nations in Asia. 

That shift, emanating from the desire to move away from a monocultural situation — having one big friend America, one big product (oil), and based on one big idea, the Islamic idea — was proceeding at glacial pace through the next decade until Prince Mohammed bin Salman was appointed as the Crown Prince in June 2017, making him heir presumptive to the throne. 

Under Prince Mohammed’s leadership, the KIngdom’s transformation began accelerating, and acquired an ideological mooring of Saudi nationalism. The strengthening of relations with Russia and the signing of an agreement in 2016 to cooperate with Russia in global oil markets in a matrix that subsequently came to be known as OPEC+ was an early manifestation of that shift. 

It coincided with launch of the Vision 2030 carrying the Crown Prince’s imprimatur, embodying the country’s strategic orientation for the next 15 years. From a historical perspective, Vision 2030 can be regarded as marking the abandonment of the Saudi reliance on a rentier economy. In the foreign policy sphere, its impact came to be felt in a steady assertion of the Kingdom’s strategic autonomy. 

Against such a tumultuous geopolitical backdrop, it comes as no surprise that the US’ confrontation with Russia finds Saudi Arabia in the eye of the storm. Lavrov’s trip to Saudi Arabia rang alarm bells in Washington. On the eve of Lavrov’s arrival in Riyadh, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had a call with Al Saud ostensibly to discuss Yemen and other regional issues. 

The state department readout said inter alia, “The Secretary (Blinken) underscored the importance of international support for Ukraine as it defends its sovereignty and territorial integrity and emphasised the need for a global response to the food security crisis resulting from President Putin’s brutal war.” 

Plainly put, Blinken canvassed for the support of the Gulf states to the US-led “global response” to the temporary food crisis, which aims to put the blame on Russia’s doorstep for creating the current shortage of wheat. Evidently, the Saudi leadership hasn’t fallen for the trap. At any rate, under UN auspices, Russia and Turkey have begun work on arranging humanitarian corridors through the waters of the Black Sea, which have been mined by Ukraine. The UN Secretary-General has appealed to the US to ease sanctions to allow Russian exports of food grain to the world market.

To deflect attention from Lavrov’s successful trip to Riyadh, the US-led “information war” has concocted the fake news that Saudi Arabia is “reportedly considering” Russia’s removal from the OPEC+. Lavrov’s talks in Riyadh underscore that on the contrary, Russia and Saudi Arabia are signalling that OPEC+ is indeed going strong. The message cannot be lost on Washington. 

June 2, 2022 Posted by | Aletho News | , , | Leave a comment

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