Israel and Hezbollah on the brink of war
By Steven Sahiounie | Strategic Culture Foundation | June 23, 2024
The Middle East is sitting on a powder keg, and every minute that passes brings heightened tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.
Canada, the U.S., Great Britain and Kuwait have all warned its citizens in Lebanon to evacuate.
The impending war is caused by Israeli refusal of a ceasefire in Gaza. Hezbollah says they will continue to stand in solidarity with the Palestinians of Gaza as the continuing genocide is perpetrated by Israel, but as soon as a ceasefire begins, Hezbollah’s response will cease.
Hezbollah is a Lebanese resistance group which is heavily armed. Most experts agree that the military might of Hezbollah and Israel are quite comparable on many levels, but Israel has air superiority.
Israel has a sophisticated air defense system, the ‘Iron Dome’. However, this system can be overwhelmed by Hezbollah if they were to launch a massive amount of missiles at Israel, and all agree that Hezbollah has a huge arsenal of missiles.
If the ‘Iron Dome’ was inundated by missiles launched from Lebanon, the effectiveness of the Israeli defenses would stop, and Israel could suffer destruction on a scale it has never experienced before. We have witnessed the destruction of Israeli missiles on Gaza, and homes and buildings across Israel could face a similar disaster.
Hezbollah demonstrated it has an air defense system, but it has been secretive in showing the capabilities of its defense from Israeli jets; however, on at least one occasion Hezbollah utilized their air defenses to repel an Israeli jet flying over Lebanon.
Amos Hochstein, the U.S. special envoy dispatched recently to Israel and Lebanon in hopes of averting a war between Israel and Hezbollah, came back empty-handed. Hochstein had been successful in a negotiation between Israel and Lebanon in 2022 over the maritime borders, but this time he was not negotiating with the Lebanese government alone, but with the most powerful resistance group in the Middle East.
The root cause of all conflicts in the Middle East emanate from the brutal Israeli occupation of Palestine, which has stripped away all human rights, and civil rights, from about six million Palestinians, while the six million Jews in Israel live in a quasi-democracy with human rights and civil rights comparable to most western democracies.
U.S. President Joe Biden and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken have repeatedly told Israeli officials the U.S. does not want to see a wider war in the Middle East, where other nations could be involved should Lebanon face destruction.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned Israel would “turn Beirut into Gaza” in the event of a war.
Experts agree that Biden would continue to support Israel even in the face of a war on Hezbollah. The international community has come out against Israel and its genocide on Gaza, but Biden continues to support war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by Israel.
Biden has sponsored a ceasefire plan, but Israel refused it, and experts suggest that the Biden plan was not designed by Washington to succeed, but was drafted only as an exercise in buying time for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Israeli public and military are divided on the war on Gaza. Many are demanding Israel stop the war and get the hostages out after almost 9 months of captivity. Others support the war on Gaza as part of the Zionist plan to eliminate all non-Jews and create one Jewish nation from the ‘river to the sea’.
Netanyahu firmly demands the continuation of the war on Gaza and demands that Hamas be destroyed, but his military leaders have said that is an impossible task, as Hamas is an ideology, that of resistance to occupation, which is guaranteed to all people through the Geneva Convention.
On June 18, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said plans for an attack in southern Lebanon had been approved and steps had been taken to “accelerate readiness in the field.” The statement came from Major General Ori Gordin, the head of IDF Northern Command, and Major General Oded Basiuk, who heads the IDF’s Operations Division.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz threatened Hezbollah that they faced “destruction” amid “all-out war” at the Israel-Lebanon border.
Katz’s threat came after Hezbollah published a surveillance video that it took by a drone over various Israeli military, infrastructure and civilian installations, including some in the Israeli port city of Haifa.
“In an all-out war, Hezbollah will be destroyed and Lebanon will be severely hit,” Katz wrote on X.
On June 21, Hezbollah said it fired dozens of rockets into northern Israel in retaliation for a deadly air strike in south Lebanon that Israel said killed one of the group’s operatives. Hezbollah also claimed several other attacks on Israeli troops and positions over the course of the day.
In a meeting with visiting Israeli officials in Washington, Blinken underscored “the importance of avoiding further escalation in Lebanon and reaching a diplomatic resolution that allows Israeli and Lebanese families to return to their homes”, according to a statement.
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah had warned “no place” in Israel would “be spared our rockets” if a wider war began, in a TV address on Wednesday. He also threatened Cyprus if it opened its airports or bases to Israel “to target Lebanon”. Cyprus houses two British bases, including an airbase.
Israel invaded and brutally occupied Lebanon from 1982 to 2000. Its withdrawal was a victory for Hezbollah. In 2006, Israel launched a second war on Hezbollah which saw Israel prevented from invading by the might of Hezbollah, and in the following years the resistance group has gotten much stronger militarily.
Dozens of Israeli towns are now deserted, with around 60,000 Israelis evacuated to temporary accommodation, while about 90,000 have also fled from southern Lebanon.
Israel has launched roughly four times as many attacks as Hezbollah over the course of the conflict, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, a Wisconsin-based research group specializing in conflict data analysis. Last week, Israel made its deepest attack yet into Lebanon, striking 75 miles north of the border.
Israeli troops have also deployed white phosphorus in Lebanon, a substance that burns at high temperature and can be used to create smokescreens to obscure troop movements, but can cause respiratory damage and deadly burns. Its use near civilian areas is a violation of international humanitarian law.
“It’s not a question of if it will happen but when it will happen,” Avichai Stern, the mayor of Kiryat Shmona, the largest town in Israel’s north, said in an interview, and added, “We have to wipe them out.”
The war between Israel and Lebanon can be avoided if Israel will stop the unrelenting attacks on Gaza, which have resulted in over 36,000 deaths, mostly women and children.
Ex-DoD Analyst Derides Bid to Upgrade Outdated B-52s With Nukes
By Svetlana Ekimenko – Sputnik – 23.06.2024
The defense policy bills for fiscal year 2025 in both the US Senate and House include funding to enhance the nuclear weapon capabilities of approximately 30 B-52H Stratofortress bombers. However, the Pentagon is not enthusiastic about the proposal and instead favors a more expensive option of investing in a next-generation nuclear-capable bomber.
Congress’ bid to restore the B-52 bombers’ nuclear capabilities comes in the wake of repeated disappointments in developing US hypersonic standoff weapons, retired US Air Force Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski told Sputnik.
“Putting nukes back on the upgraded B-52 is a band aid that covers that,” said the former analyst for the US Department of Defense.
“It is important to note that Congress and the Pentagon have already approved and funded engine, avionics and radar upgrades for the nearly 60-year-old B-52 airframe. The B-52H models will be designated B-52J’s, upon upgrade. This was justified several years ago with the B-52Js as a delivery mechanism for planned AGR-183 hypersonic missiles – a missile tested by the Air Force, but one that is no longer being funded in the FY2025 defense budget,” she underscored.
Dozens of the Pentagon’s hypersonic missile projects for the Army, Air Force, Navy, and DARPA have suffered setbacks, despite a desperate race to catch up with Russia and China in this field.
The hypersonic weapon that was in development by the Pentagon, the Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW), had been mired in delays and test failures. The weapon was to be fired from beneath the wing of a B-52 Stratofortress bomber and also contain a glide vehicle. The ARRW program, launched in April 2018, was to achieve operational deployment in 2022. However, in November 2023, after conducting two test flights in August and October 2023, the Fiscal Year 2025 budget provided no funding for procurement or further research and development of the AGM-183, effectively ending the project.
“The initiative will be costly and profitable for the defense industry, and in practical terms it keeps the B-52 in the game for tax-payer dollars. It is somewhat practical, as nuclear re-arming of the new B-52J model, as it completes other B-52 upgrades, fits well in the Boeing and Northrup Grumman industrial base,” noted Kwiatkowski.
It’s really all about the Congressional lobbyists, the ex-DoD analyst pointed out, clarifying that in the House, “Congressman Mike Rogers is the second-highest recipient of defense lobby money; In the Senate, Deb Fischer’s top donor is Northrup-Grumman a major missile developer, and Boeing, the maker of the B-52, is her fourth-largest donor.”
The conventional B-52H Stratofortress bombers had been part of the US nuclear triad close to a decade ago. However, under the New START treaty with Russia, the planes were stripped of these capabilities. With the treaty set to expire in February 2026, there is a drive to “beef up the US nuclear arsenal”. Congress has been advocating making the old bombers nuclear capable again, but the idea does not appear to be viewed favorably in the Pentagon.
“The treaty expires in 2026, and… We need to be prepared to face a nuclear environment without any treaty limitations,” said House Armed Services Chairman Mike Rogers, R-Ala., as he introduced the amendment to the passed FY25 defense policy legislation. In line with that bill, the Air Force would start upgrading the bombers within a month after the accord expires. Accordingly, it is hoped that the restoration of the B-52’s nuclear capabilities might be completed by 2029.
Democrat Congressman Adam Smith of the Armed Services Committee had voiced opposition, and was cited as saying:
“The Department of Defense is not interested in doing this… What they’re interested in doing is investing in the B-21, which is the next generation nuclear-capable bomber. This would cost a great deal of money. Also, they’re currently trying to extend the life of a number of B-52s out to 2050, which they think they can do. This would be another added expense to that.”
The Senate Armed Services Committee also voted to advance its version of the bill on restoration of nuclear capabilities of the fleet of bombers dating back to the 1960s.
Kwiatkowski dissected the features of the B-52 bomber that originally made it a suitable aircraft for nuclear warheads’ deployment during the Cold War, singling out such aspects as “manned crews, ability to fly long distances, with refueling carried out in safe airspace.”
These aspects, as well as the “relatively long lead time from launch of aircraft to actual release of nuclear weapons allowed time for recall, and the application of better intelligence and diplomacy,” she said, adding:
“Today, the push is for unmanned or smaller crews to fly the upgraded B-52 (reducing the need for human decision-making and debate once launched), and today, no airframe that flies as slow and ‘unstealthy’ as the B-52 would be safe after take-off and in flight, given intelligence and defensive capabilities of the target countries and their allies.”
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty entered into force in 2011. Ten years later, Russia and the US negotiated an extension until February 2026. Amid NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine, Moscow suspended its participation in the accord on February 21, 2023.
At the time, President Vladimir Putin during his February 2023 speech to the Federal Assembly referenced everything from Washington’s unilateral withdrawals from milestone strategic weapons treaties, to NATO’s enlargement towards Russia’s borders in violation of previous verbal agreements.
Moscow added that it would continue to comply with quantitative restrictions on strategic offensive arms and exchange notifications with Washington about ballistic missile launches. In June, the US announced its “countermeasures” in response to Russia’s suspension of the treaty. Both sides say they continue to abide by New START’s numerical limits.
Karen Kwiatkowski stated that it is clear why the Department of Defense is against the proposition of upgrading the outdated bomber aircraft fleet. She indicated that the DoD recognizes the vulnerabilities and the high cost associated with such a project.
“Upgrading the B-52 is largely a political statement rather than a serious “pillar” in the old concept of US nuclear triad. Nuclear armed B-52s, instead of serving as a signal to an enemy that nuclear war can be prevented even after launch as it was throughout the Cold War, today would simply be a late-to-the-party nuclear suicide drill,” remarked the retired US Air Force officer.
She lamented the fact that there are currently “no statesmen in the West interested in preventing nuclear war, as we had during the Cold War.” No matter how much the range of the B-52 is upgraded, these outdated planes will never be able to “fully capitalize on the current advances in technology and stealth,” remarked the expert.
“Pentagon thinking has one foot in the past (a triad that includes bombers because we have always done it that way) and one foot in the future – irreversible attacks and hostage-holding strategies via high-speed, radar-evading missiles and other weapons launched from land, sea and space. This straddling of past and future delivers the B-21 [Raider aircraft] – a platform that is profitable for manufacturers but unlikely to truly function as planned in coming decades. But that is where US defense path dependency has brought us,” Kwiatkowski pointed out.
On a personal note, the former DoD analyst suggested it would be both “cheaper and wiser” to upgrade the B-52 with its human pilots than the B-21 Raider, which is “little more than another unmanned stealth missile.” After all, she summed up, such a platform would not provide any “additional ability, stability or political motivation for political leaders to approach an actual nuclear war cautiously and wisely” in the multipolar world.
“If war is politics by other means, a manned nuclear weapon that can be aborted mid-flight is better than an AI-driven nuclear event that politicians will later claim “wasn’t their fault” or was “hacked,” said Kwiatkowski.
Advantage Hezbollah
By Alon Mizrahi | June 23, 2024
Remember last week’s video from Hezbollah, with the drone over Northern Israel?
Well, there’s a new one, and it is also very interesting. It doesn’t look like footage from a drone, but rather like satellite imagery.
But this is not Google Earth or some nonsense like that. No publicly accessible satellite service will show you Israel’s top security sites. Try it. You’ll get nothing. It’s all blurred out.
So by publishing this Hezbollah accomplished two goals: first, they know many Israeli secrets and their specific locations. Second, they have access to high-quality satellite imagery.
This means Hezbollah can not only potentially hit sensitive sites with high accuracy. What it also means, and is just [as] problematic for Israel, is that Hezbollah may be able to track the movements of Israeli forces deep in Israeli territory in relative real-time. A capability no enemy of Israel ever had while directly involved in an armed conflict against it.
We know that Iran has dozens of satellites in space, some capable of state-of-the-art high resolution. When Israel fought Hezbollah in 2006 Iran had no such capability. Today it is a major international satellite powerhouse, using domestically-developed missiles and launchers.
Trump Vows to Settle Ukraine Conflict Even Before Taking Office If Reelected
Sputnik – 23.06.2024
Former US President Donald Trump has vowed to settle the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine even before his inauguration in case he wins the 2024 presidential race.
“Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, shortly after we win the presidency… I will have the horrible war between Russia and Ukraine settled,” Trump said on Saturday during a rally in Philadelphia.
During his speech, Trump also vowed to prevent World War III.
The US presidential election will be held on November 5. The main rivals in the race are US President Joe Biden, a Democrat, and his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump.
Earlier in the week, Trump said in an interview with the All-In podcast that it is understandable that Russia would be bothered by NATO troops on its border, adding that NATO’s eastward expansion was a key reason for the Ukraine conflict. Trump vowed to not put US troops on the ground in Ukraine if he returns to the White House.
Ukraine attacks Crimea with US-supplied missiles – Russian MOD
RT | June 23, 2024
The Ukrainian military has launched several US-made ATACMS long-range missiles armed with highly controversial cluster munitions on Russia’s Crimea, resulting in numerous civilian casualties, the Defense Ministry in Moscow has said.
The strike was first reported by Sevastopol Governor Mikhail Razvozhaev on Sunday, who said that the attack killed at least three people, including two children. He also estimated the number of injured at almost 100 people.
The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed the Ukrainian attack, which it said took place at around noon local time. Officials said that the shelling involved five ATACMS missiles, four of which were destroyed mid-air.
The remaining one, however, was damaged by air defenses, veered off course and detonated over the city of Sevastopol. As a result, the falling fragments of cluster munitions led to numerous civilian casualties, the statement read.
Сluster munitions – which scatter dozens of smaller bombs when denotated – are banned in more than 100 countries, including the UK, France, and Germany. This type of weapon is considered extremely dangerous to civilians, as the munitions typically spread over large areas and can remain unexploded in the ground for many years.
Neither the US, Ukraine, nor Russia has signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions. However, in the summer 2023 then-Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said that Moscow would not deploy this type of weapon against Kiev for humanitarian reasons. He warned, however, that Russia might potentially reverse this policy.
The US announced in July 2023 that it would provide Ukraine with cluster munitions, sparking outrage in Moscow. At the time, US President Joe Biden called the decision “very difficult” but justified, arguing that the deliveries were needed to fuel a Ukrainian counteroffensive that subsequently failed with heavy losses for Kiev.
Ukraine has previously attempted to target the peninsula with ATACMS missiles, with one of the most notable attacks taking place in late May. Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov said that a total of ten ATACMS aimed at the strategic Crimean Bridge were shot down, saving hundreds of lives.
IS A DRAFT ON THE HORIZON?
The Highwire with Del Bigtree | June 20, 2024
Is the military draft coming back? Will women be required to register for selective service? With a world war with Russia seeming to be more likely as the days pass, we break down the latest controversial proposals by America to increase readiness.
Biden Is In Full Denial As He Escalates His Wars
BY PHILIP GIRALDI • UNZ REVIEW • JUNE 22, 2024
When are American soldiers not really engaged in combat?
Over the past week it was revealed that Congress is considering legislation that will strengthen current conscription registration requirements and could even include women. It seems that the US armed services can no longer obtain enough volunteers to meet their needs and are getting desperate given the wars both ongoing and planned by the National Security State. The Pentagon planners note how the wars in Gaza and Ukraine are also escalating alarmingly and China and Russia are being targeted over the horizon. But when Joe Biden is able to compose himself enough to express something that he considers to be an elemental truth he generally limits himself to a few words that he has memorized. One of my favorites is the empty of meaning expression “No boots on the ground,” meaning that the United States will not rush willy nilly into any of the wars it has started recently by engaging actual American armed forces in hand-to-hand combat. Of course, the narrative would work better if Old Joe were not lying about what he has been up to secretly in both Israel-Gaza and Ukraine. One recalls that Joe made a morale boosting trip to support Israel back in October 2023 where he was photographed together with a number of US Delta Force special ops soldiers in full combat gear. The White House actually posted the picture on its website before deleting it together with a description of the photo reading “In Israel, President Biden met with first responders to thank them for their bravery and the work they’re doing in response to the Hamas terrorist attacks.” It was explained to the media at the time that the men were there to provide assistance to Israel in its “defending itself” against Hamas but they were apparently first responders, whatever that was supposed to mean, not combat soldiers.
A problem quickly developed when it was also observed by some military veterans that the photos were of such a quality as to enable the identification of the soldiers, a definite no-no for a covert unit involved in sensitive under-cover operations. Fox News contributor Sara Carter questioned “Is the White House really this stupid or are they just trying to get people targeted? This is totally unacceptable… These operators are required to maintain a level of discretion that this administration has completely disregarded. I would know, my husband is a retired operator. They are elite trained fighters and something as simple as facial ID recognition is putting them in direct threat by adversaries. How did this happen White House?” The photo faux pas also demonstrated that Biden was a liar when he denied having made the risky decision to put “boots on the ground.”
Beyond that blunder, it has already been observed by numerous sources that the White House has been secretly sending weapons and money to both Israel and Ukraine and it is also generally known that the equipment is frequently accompanied by soldiers and civilian contractors who are along for the ride to set the stuff up and provide minimal training in its use. That is referred to in military slang as SOP or “standard operating procedure” and it is to be assumed that the personnel are wearing their “boots” or whatever attire they choose to put on their feet.
And then there is the now infamous pontoon pier constructed at great cost of $320 million by the US military which broke after brief use and may have been used to insert Israeli commandos that slaughtered 274 Palestinians in the controversial June 8th hostage rescue at Nuseirat refugee camp. Claims that Israel used the US pontoon pier are supported by a photo that shows an Israeli helicopter landing near the structure, but the evidence has been disputed by Washington, which claims that the pier is only used for humanitarian relief. That, of course, is debatable and Prime Minister Netanyahu has suggested that it could also be used to deport Palestinians. Craig Mokhiber, an American former United Nations human rights official and a specialist in international human rights law, has asked the critical question on X: “Was the US ‘humanitarian’ pier used as a launching point for the Al-Nuseirat massacre (which could not happen without US collaboration)? And what role did US forces play on the ground (besides arming and providing diplomatic cover for the IOF)?” Adding to the confusion, is an interview in which the perpetually dim Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin seemed confused over whether the soldiers building the structure would be authorized to shoot back if came under fire when at work or while running the completed operation. Would they constitute “Boots on the Ground?”
In addition to that, the United States has sizable and active embassies in both countries that currently include enlarged Defense Attache Offices, which incorporate both military personnel and civilians. And don’t be fooled by the civilians as many of them are special ops or intelligence types under cover as State Department staff. In both places, the DATT personnel are actively engaged in the wars being fought by Volodymyr Zelensky from Kiev and Benjamin Netanyahu from Jerusalem by providing intelligence and targeting information as well as in advising their Ukrainian counterparts. In both cases the US has given its “allies” a carte blanche approval to use whatever weapons they have in their arsenals to directly target their opponents in such a fashion as to guarantee an escalation of the conflicts. In other words, in spite of the White House denial that the US is actually engaged as combatants in two wars that were unnecessary in the first place, the evidence is in place suggesting that the United States is fully involved as a belligerent, a fact that is well known both to the Russians, who have commented on the threat from NATO and have warned of their own possibly nuclear response, as well as to the Palestinians and Hamas.
Indeed, in a break with the general silence on covert operations, it is now being reported that the United States provided considerable intelligence on the hostages before Israel’s rescue operation at Nuseirat camp. A team of American hostage recovery specialists were stationed in Israel to aid the Israeli military’s effort to rescue the four captives by providing signals intelligence and other logistical support. The Pentagon and the CIA have been providing information collected from drone flights over Gaza, communications intercepts and other sources about the potential location of hostages including intelligence from the air and cyberspace that Israel apparently cannot collect on its own. The reporting also has revealed that intelligence collection and analysis teams from both the United States and Britain have been in Israel since the start of the war, assisting Israeli intelligence in collecting and analyzing information related to the hostages, some of them dual national Israeli citizens from both the UK and US.
Moving on to Central Europe and given the persistent warnings coming from Moscow over US and NATO’s direct role in the Ukraine war, Washington is currently in a mild panic over the Russian decision to send one of its naval frigates and a nuclear powered missile armed submarine as well as two support vessels on a visit to Cuba to show the flag, as it were, 90 miles from the continental US. One recalls that when Russia moved its forces into Cuba over sixty years ago it resulted in the Cuban Missile Crisis which could have turned into a nuclear war were it not for some common sense coupled to adroit diplomacy by President John F. Kennedy and Premier Nikita Khrushchev. Common sense, unfortunately, is currently lacking in the White House so it is quite possible that something completely nutty will result from the impasse which is further complicated by the 10 year Bilateral Security Agreement that Joe Biden signed with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky at the G7 meeting in Italy last week. What it commits Washington to do is by no means clear.
Like it or not, the United States is directly involved in two wars that it could have avoided and the Biden Administration is deeply in denial over what is taking place. Once upon a time the level of US engagement would have guaranteed a counter-attack from the opponent, but given the availability of nuclear weapons in the hands of many of the players there is appropriately a certain reluctance to engage in open and sustained warfare in the old-fashioned way. That is to the good. One can only hope that all parties involved will get tired of the game before too long and will resort to another old-time value, namely diplomacy to bring about a ceasefire and peace settlements.
Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D., is Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest, a 501(c)3 tax deductible educational foundation (Federal ID Number #52-1739023) that seeks a more interests-based U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Website is councilforthenationalinterest.org, address is P.O. Box 2157, Purcellville VA 20134 and its email is inform@cnionline.org .
US vows ‘security support’ for Israel in all-out war with Lebanon
The Cradle | June 22, 2024
Senior US officials confirmed that if Israel wages a full out war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Washington is fully prepared to back its ally in Tel Aviv, CNN reported on 22 June.
According to a senior administration official speaking with CNN, the US officials gave the assurances in person to a delegation of Israeli security officials visiting Washington this week.
The Israeli officials, including Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer and national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi, met with US officials, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and White House Middle East affairs coordinator Brett McGurk.
The face-to-face assurances come amid heightened tensions between Israel and the Lebanese resistance group. In recent weeks, Hezbollah has escalated its attacks on Israel’s military infrastructure near the Lebanese border.
At the same time, Israeli officials have issued multiple threats claiming they will launch a major attack on Lebanon, including attacking civilian areas such as in the capital, Beirut.
Israeli officials are frustrated that they are not able to provide security for some 100,000 displaced Israelis to return to settlements in the north.
When discussing the prospects of a major war, US officials said they would offer Israel the security assistance it needs but would not deploy US troops to the ground.
If Hezbollah were to significantly expand the scale of its attacks on Israel, resulting in the deaths of Israelis, US officials expect Israel to respond with full force, CNN added.
Earlier this week, US officials warned that in the event of an all-out war, Hezbollah would be able to overwhelm the Iron Dome with its powerful arsenal of over 100,000 missiles and rockets.
“Israeli officials have told the US they believe the Iron Dome could be vulnerable, particularly in northern Israel, and have been surprised at the sophistication of Hezbollah’s strikes to date,” the US officials went on to tell CNN.
One Israeli official cited by the outlet confirmed that Hezbollah attacks could be “challenging for the system to defend against.”
It is also unclear whether Israel will have the troops to launch a full-scale war with ground troops. Israel faces a serious enlistment crisis and shortage of soldiers in the Israeli army and has lost many troops to death and injury fighting Hamas in Gaza.
On 21 June, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant asked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to schedule an urgent meeting to discuss extending compulsory military service to three years.
“The new security reality requires finding means to continue the war effort,” Gallant was quoted as saying. Gallant has requested that Netanyahu approve this in government within the coming days.
Debt Disaster: Why Global South Increasingly Sidelines the US Dollar
By Ekaterina Blinova – Sputnik – 22.06.2024
Soaring US national debt may translate into a real disaster when supercharged by internal political fighting or de-dollarization among top emerging economies, US observers warn.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts that the US national debt will hit $50.7 trillion by 2034, but the true figure “surely will be much bigger,” wrote William Pesek, an award-winning journalist and author, for the Asia Times.
The CBO projected on June 18 that US debt would reach 122 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) by 2034, far surpassing the nation’s record-high public debt-to-GDP ratio of 106 percent in the aftermath of World War II. The watchdog also expects that interest costs for maintaining the debt will climb to $892 billion in 2024 (from $352 billion in 2021).
Pesek named defense funding, social safety net outlays and tax cuts unmatched by revenue increases as being the major drivers behind the debt growth, adding that they would become even costlier in the future.
He also quotes Goldman Sachs economists as predicting that the US debt-to-GDP ratio will hit 130 percent by 2034, i.e. 8 percentage points higher than the CBO estimates. Judging by the present dynamics, it could be far higher than that, according to the journalist.
The Wall Street Journal’s Gerald F. Seib appears to share Pesek’s concerns: “Over the centuries and across the globe, nations and empires that blithely piled up debt have, sooner or later, met unhappy ends.”
The Washington Post’s Jacob Bogage echoes his counterparts in referring to the spending spree under the Trump and Biden administrations, which included huge tax cuts, various social programs and increasing defense expenditures.
“[Most recently], besides the annual appropriations, lawmakers approved a $95 billion foreign aid bill to support Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan and make investments in the US industrial base, and Biden announced plans to forgive billions of dollars in student loans,” the correspondent noted.
When it comes to Ukraine, Congress has approved nearly $175 billion of funding and military assistance to support the Kiev regime and allied nations since 2022, as per the Committee for the Responsible Federal Budget. This spending has been repeatedly questioned by some US lawmakers, who referred to Kiev’s corruption, non-transparency and military failures. To complicate matters further, American lawmakers are complaining about US primary defense contractors tremendously overcharging the US government.
Meanwhile, Ukraine funding constitutes a fraction of the US growing military spending that rose by 2.3 percent from 2022 to reach $916 billion in 2023, or 68 percent of total NATO military spending, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). These expenditures only add to America’s bloated national debt.
According to Pesek, “this slow-motion economic disaster” related to Washington’s inability to balance its spending “could be sped up by political squabbling or by de-dollarization efforts among top emerging markets.”
He particularly refers to Biden’s economic policies and protectionist measures which are not making the US economy more resilient. According to the journalist, the White House’s latest 100 percent tariffs on China-made electric vehicles have hurt “global faith in the dollar or US Treasury securities” (of which the People’s Republic holds around $700 billion).
He warns that Global South countries are “viewing the US less and less as an adult in the room when it comes to economic and geopolitical affairs.”
“The most obvious example of disillusionment over US fiscal excesses is the pivot away from the US dollar,” Pesek notes, adding that there is no sign that the US government is ready to overhaul its economic approach.
“Nor is it safe to bet on the US debt only rising to $50 trillion a decade from now. As the real figure exceeds even the worst expectations, global markets could be in a world of hurt. And Washington will make it easy for Global South nations hoping to sideline the dollar,” he concludes.
Nothing to worry about? South Korea sounds the alarm
By Gilbert Doctorow | June 21, 2024
What a difference a day makes. Yesterday’s Financial Times informed readers about the red carpet that was rolled out for Vladimir Putin at his various stops in and around the North Korean capital during his two-day stay there. They spoke of the Russian folk songs which local artists performed in Putin’s honor. They mentioned that various state to state agreements were signed but said almost nothing about the contents.
Today the FT has taken a very different approach to Putin’s visit in a feature article entitled “Japan and South Korea sound alarm over Putin-Kim military pact.” Lo and behold, Seoul has read the text of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership that North Korea issued and discovered that it contains: “a pledge to deploy ‘all means at its disposal without delay’ to provide ‘military and other assistance’ in the event that one of the signatories was invaded or in a state of war.”
The FT goes on to cite the South Korean foreign ministry’s expression of regret over the strategic partnership: “… co-operation between Russia and North Korea ‘should not undermine regional peace and stability’.” Seoul warns “that their co-operation on military technology would violate UN Security Council resolutions.”
Those resolutions, by the way, are up for renewal in the not-too-distant future, and Putin has said from Pyongyang that Russia will veto any extensions.
The fact is that this barking from the South Koreans is frustrated by the very opacity of the wording of both the texts and of Putin’s spoken remarks after the signing and at a meeting with Russian journalists before his departure for Vietnam.
One thing is certain: the Russian-North Korean deal is not just transactional: it is a genuine alliance, the first and only one that Russia has at this moment.
What kind of military assistance will the sides provide to the other in case an act of aggression is declared? What kind of military technical cooperation do the parties have in mind?
For example, will Russia be providing North Korea with ICBMs capable of reaching all of the United States, as some American experts believe? Or is Russia just extending its nuclear umbrella over North Korea, with a pledge to destroy any attacker? Will Russia provide North Korea with its ship sinking hypersonic missiles that could be very useful if this or any future American president sends an aircraft carrier task force to Korean shores to threaten Pyongyang with instant destruction as Trump once did?
Turned around the other way, what can and will North Korea do to help if Russia declares that an act of aggression has been committed against it by NATO in the midst of the Ukraine conflict? Last evening’s edition of the authoritative Russian talk show, The Great Game, moderated by Duma member and Kremlin insider Vyacheslav Nikonov provided an intriguing insight into what people close to Putin are thinking in this regard.
For some time, Russia’s chattering classes have speculated about possibilities for enlisting some of North Korea’s one million man army to help their forces in the ground war in Ukraine. Now, under conditions of the newly signed military alliance with Pyongyang, these same Russians are saying that should NATO forces enter Ukraine to join the fight against them, as Emmanuel Macron has been urging, then Russia may invite 50,000 or more North Koreans to lend a hand to their cause. Moreover, they note that the North Koreans have some very impressive artillery pieces to bring with them to the fight.
If that kind of talk on Russian television is being ignored by the military attaché in the U.S. Embassy in Moscow I would be very surprised.
In closing, I mention that the fuss raised by Seoul over the Russian-North Korean military alliance was the subject of a 10-minute interview I gave to Iran’s Press TV this morning.
The link is here: https://www.urmedium.net/c/presstv/129882
As I was alerted by one very attentive reader, this link is usable if you ignore the warnings about possibly compromising security of your computer and opt to proceed at your own risk. The warning is malicious, a bit of disinformation from Iran’s detractors, nothing more.
An alternative link that works directly, without unnerving warnings is here: https://odysee.com/PressTV-2024-06-21:8
Enjoy the show!
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
Trump names cause of Ukraine conflict
RT | June 21, 2024
Russia’s intervention in Ukraine was triggered by the irresponsible and provocative rhetoric which US President Joe Biden and his administration used about Ukraine joining NATO, Donald Trump has said.
Trump, who is seeking a rematch with Biden for the presidency in November, appeared on the ‘All-In’ podcast posted late on Thursday. The comments about Ukraine came during a conversation on foreign policy with co-host David Sacks.
“For 20 years, I heard that if Ukraine goes into NATO, it’s a real problem for Russia. I’ve heard that for a long time. And I think that’s really why this war started,” Trump said.
The Republican presidential candidate pointed out that there had been no talk about armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine when he was in the White House, but as soon as Biden replaced him, things began to deteriorate.
“I thought that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin may be – well, look, he’s a good negotiator, I thought he was going to be doing that for negotiation purposes,” Trump said. “Then all of a sudden, they attacked, and I said, ‘what’s going on here?’”
According to the former president, one of the key issues was the rhetoric coming out of the White House.
“Biden was saying all of the wrong things. And one of the wrong things he was saying [was] ‘no, Ukraine will go into NATO’,” Trump said.
Sacks pointed out that in January 2022 or thereabouts, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Moscow that Ukraine would join NATO and that Washington thought it was OK to put nuclear weapons there. “So no wonder the Russians hit the roof,” he noted.
“Well, let’s say you were running Russia. You wouldn’t be too happy,” Trump replied. “And that’s always been off the table. It’s always been understood that that was a no-no,” he added, addressing Kiev’s potential NATO membership.
Floating the idea of Ukraine in NATO was “very provocative,” Trump said. “And now it’s even more provocative. I hear routinely they’re now talking about Ukraine entering NATO. And now I hear France wants to go in and fight. Well, I wish them a lot of luck!”
Putin has specifically pointed to Western statements about Ukraine’s possible membership in the US-led bloc as a security threat Moscow could not ignore. Ukraine’s neutrality has been one of the non-negotiable Russian conditions for the conflict to end.
NATO has argued that its “open door” policy is essential and that no one had the right of veto over it, but also that its expansion eastward was not the cause of the conflict.
In an interview with Time magazine earlier this month, Biden claimed that the US is “the strongest nation” because of NATO expansion, and that he told Putin he would get “NATOization of Finland” instead of “the Finlandization of NATO” during their June 2021 summit in Switzerland.
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Who Runs Our World?
Netanyahu addresses US Congress
By Richard Hugus | January 4, 2019
Our world is run by oligarchs, the holders of vast wealth from monopolies in banking, resource extraction, manufacturing, and technology. Oligarchs have such power that most of the world doesn’t even know of their influence over our lives. Their overall agenda is global power — a world government, run by them — to be achieved through planned steps of social engineering. The oligarchs remain in the background and have heads of state and entire governments acting in their service. Presidents and prime ministers are their puppets. Bureaucrats and politicians are their factotums.
Who are politicians? Politicians are people who work for the powerful while pretending to represent the people who voted for them. This double-dealing involves a lot of lying, so successful politicians must be good at it. It’s not an easy job to make the insane agenda of the powerful seem reasonable. Politicians can’t reveal this agenda because it almost always goes against the interests of their constituents, so they become adept at sophistry, mystification, and the appearance of authority. For example, wars for Israel have been part of the agenda of the powerful for years. Since 2001, wars for Israel have been sold as “the war on terror” and lots of lies had to be made up as to why the war on terror was a real thing. The visible faces promoting the war on terror were neoconservatives in the US, almost all of whom were advocates for Israel, or Zionists. Zionists are not the only members of the oligarchy, but they seem to be its lead actors. ... continue
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