Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier said that Western countries had misled Moscow by expanding NATO in Eastern Europe despite previous promises not to do so.
Military expenditure in NATO’s Eastern European member states surged to $70 billion this year, according to Bloomberg.
Poland and Estonia are among the top seven NATO members, in terms of defense spending as a percentage of GDP, this year. Poland is allocating 4.12% of its GDP to defense, while Estonia is dedicating 3.4%, both far exceeding NATO’s target of 2%.
The report comes amid heightened militarization in Eastern Europe, with NATO establishing “multinational battlegroups” in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia, in response to a perceived “Russian threat.” Member states have also increased their deployment of ships, planes, and troops to NATO’s eastern flank.
Russia has repeatedly warned NATO against expanding eastwards, with Moscow arguing that it could further escalate tensions in Europe.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously accused NATO of making empty promises regarding its 1991 commitment not to expand eastwards. He stressed that there have been “five waves” of expansion since the US administration assured Russia in 1991 that NATO would not expand towards the east.
October 9, 2024
Posted by aletho |
Militarism | Estonia, NATO, Poland |
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The US government spent at least $22.76 billion between 7 October 2023 and 30 September 2024 to support Israel’s genocide of Palestinians in Gaza and fuel the raging regional war, according to a report published by Brown University’s Costs of War project.
Since the launch of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood by Hamas one year ago, Washington provided Israel with $17.9 billion in military aid alone, the highest amount in the two countries’ histories, adjusted for inflation. Nevertheless, the report highlights that “this figure represents only a partial picture of total US support for the Israeli [army] over that time period.”
A large portion of Washington’s “security assistance” for Israel consists of munitions, from artillery shells to 2,000-pound bombs that have been dropped over residential areas in Gaza and Lebanon.
“The weapons have come through a variety of channels, including existing US stocks, including the multi-billion dollar WRSA-I stocks located in Israel, commercial sales approved by the State Department, Foreign Military Sales (FMS) approved by State and negotiated and brokered by the Pentagon, Foreign Military Financing (FMF), which provides grants for the purchase of US defense articles and services, and the Excess Defense Articles (EDA) program, which provides used systems no longer needed by US forces for free or at a steep discount,” the Costs of War report details.
However, Washington has worked to obscure “the full amounts of aid and types of systems through bureaucratic maneuvering,” in particular, by making sure that over 100 arms deals signed with Tel Aviv over the past year did not exceed the threshold that would have required reporting them to Congress: “$14 million for major defense equipment and $50 million for defense articles and services, ranging from weapons systems to equipment maintenance and military training.”
Based on publicly available information cited by the researchers, the $17.9 billion figure is divided as follows: $4 billion to replenish Iron Dome and David’s Sling missile defense systems; $1.2 billion for the Iron Beam defense system; $3.5 billion for the procurement of advanced weapons systems, defense articles, and defense services through the FMF program; $1 billion to enhance the production and development of artillery and critical munitions; $4.4 billion to replenish defense articles and defense services provided to Israel from US stocks; finally, the total figure also includes Israel’s usual annual military aid installment of $3.8 billion.
The amount surpasses what Washington spent during the 1973 Arab–Israeli war and is about four times the amount Israel received in the 1980s during its war with the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) in Lebanon, its 15-year occupation of Lebanon, and the 2006 war with Hezbollah.
“Israel receives favorable financing arrangements related to US military aid. For example, US aid is provided on a ‘cash flow’ basis, which means that Israel is able to finance multi-year purchases from the US based on future commitments before the funds have been officially appropriated by Congress … Unlike any other country in the world, Israel is allowed to spend 25% of its routine annual military aid from the United States on its own arms industry,” the report highlights.
Since October 2023, the US has spent an additional $4.86 billion funding its illegal war against Yemen and its failed efforts to protect western trade interests in the Red Sea and beyond. This figure includes $2.4 billion approved by Congress in April for “military operations in the broader region to respond to attacks over the next year,” another $2.4 billion in operation costs for “additional Aircraft Carrier Strike Groups and additional actions against [Yemen],” and between $50 to $70 million in additional combat pay for troops.
“There are an estimated 40,000 American personnel stationed in the region, (including personnel on ships, aircraft, and bases) (compared with 34,000 prior to October 7, 2023). This number rose to 50,000 in early August 2024, when Secretary Austin ordered a second carrier strike group to the area after Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran,” the report states.
By June, the US navy estimated it had fired $1 billion worth of munitions to confront Yemeni attacks. Furthermore, the Yemeni armed forces have downed at least 11 US MQ-9 Reaper drones over the country. With each costing $30 million, Sanaa has handed Washington at least $330 million in losses.
Finally, the Costs of War investigation reveals that western arms dealers are the ones reaping the benefits of Washington’s unchecked spending to support Israel’s genocidal war, chief among them Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX, and other equipment producers such as Caterpillar.
October 8, 2024
Posted by aletho |
Economics, Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Militarism | Israel, Middle East, Palestine, United States, Zionism |
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NATO is no longer hiding that it is gearing up for a potential military conflict with Russia, Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko has said, pointing to this year’s Steadfast Defender drills, the bloc’s largest maneuvers since the end of the Cold War.
The US-led military bloc has been expanding eastward for decades, despite assurances given to the Soviet Union in the run-up to German reunification in 1990 that it would not do so. Russia has repeatedly described the expansion toward its borders as a threat to its security.
Speaking to RIA Novosti on Tuesday, Grushko said that “now NATO representatives have stopped hiding that they are preparing for a potential armed clash with Russia.”
“Regional defense plans have been approved, concrete tasks for all of the bloc’s military command structures have been formulated. Possible options for military action against Russia are being continuously worked out,” the diplomat added.
He cited the Steadfast Defender exercise that ran from January through late May, saying that “for the first time, the enemy was not a fictitious state, but Russia.”
While NATO did not specifically name Russia in its announcement of the drills, it called the exercises preparation for a conflict with a “near-peer” adversary. NATO’s main security document identifies Russia as the bloc’s largest threat.
The drills, which were conducted near Russia’s western border, featured some 90,000 troops from all 32 NATO member states.
According to Grushko, “military budgets are being pumped [with money] and [Western] economies are being militarized.”
The deputy foreign minister insisted that “it was not Russia, but the North-Atlantic alliance that took the path of confrontation,” by refusing to engage in dialogue with Moscow. He concluded that NATO bears responsibility for a “major European security crisis.”
On Saturday, Germany’s Die Welt newspaper, citing a confidential NATO planning document, reported that in preparation for a potential conflict with Russia, the military bloc is planning to dramatically increase the number of combat and air defense units.
Over the past few months, several NATO member states have claimed that Russia could be harboring plans to attack the bloc.
Speaking on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in June, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed as “nonsense” and “bulls**t” allegations that Moscow plans to attack NATO.
In September, the Russian leader warned, however, that should Ukraine’s Western backers allow Kiev to use their missiles to hit targets deep inside Russia, “it will mean nothing less than the direct participation of NATO countries, the US and European countries, in the conflict in Ukraine.”
October 8, 2024
Posted by aletho |
Militarism, Russophobia | NATO |
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Thousands of French soldiers ready to arrive in Romania for simulated conflict with Russia
The next year will be crucial for the French army, which has undergone a major transformation in recent years to prepare for a possible conflict with Russia, reports Politico.
Next May, thousands of French soldiers will take part in a large-scale military exercise in Romania. The purpose of the exercise is to assess how quickly they can reach NATO’s eastern flank if necessary, which is crucial if Russian President Vladimir Putin were to attack an allied NATO country.
Hungarian news outlet Magyar Nemzet points out that the moves from France show “Paris is preparing for a world war. The pro-war French president has already come up with alarming plans in recent months, which could clearly lead to a war between NATO and Russia. As reported earlier, Emmanuel Macron did not rule out sending troops to Ukraine either.”
Regardless of the potential threats of an open conflict with Russia, NATO seems to be preparing for that possibility.
“We used to play war. Now, there’s a designated enemy, and we train with people with whom we’d actually go to war,” said General Bertrand Toujouse.
Such military exercises “are a strategic signal,” he added
In recent years, French ground forces have undergone a “profound transformation” to prepare for a conflict as intense as the war in Ukraine.
The main challenge is for French forces to reach Romania in such a short time.
“There is still no military Schengen, and we need to decisively improve military mobility in Europe,” said General Pierre-Éric Guillot.
The first troop deployment in Romania in 2022 has been hampered by bureaucratic hurdles, border control procedures and inadequate trains for transporting military equipment. The affected countries have since worked to eliminate these problems.
“We may still be hampered by a few customs measures, but we’ve made a lot of progress in diversifying our routes,” Guillot told reporters.
October 8, 2024
Posted by aletho |
Militarism | France, NATO, Russia |
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Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico has said that his country would not allow Ukraine to join NATO as long as he stays in power. Admitting Kiev into the US-led military alliance would trigger a new world war, he warned in an interview with the broadcaster STVR on Sunday.
“As long as I am the prime minister of the Slovak Republic, I will lead the legislators, whom I have control over as a party chairman, to never agree to Ukraine’s membership in NATO,” Fico said. “Ukraine’s entry into NATO would serve as a good basis for a third world war.”
Fico, a longtime critic of Western military and financial aid to Ukraine, has insisted that the conflict must be resolved through diplomatic means. He repeatedly warned against further escalation with Moscow.
The accession of new countries must be approved by all of NATO’s 32 existing members, with national parliaments voting in favor or against new candidates.
Kiev formally applied to join NATO in September 2022, citing the ongoing conflict with Russia. While many Western states publicly backed Ukraine’s aspirations, they have refused to provide a concrete roadmap or a timetable for accession. Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zenesky acknowledged in July that “we will not be in NATO until the war is over in Ukraine.”
Russia views NATO’s expansion eastward as a security threat and has cited Ukraine’s cooperation with the alliance as one of the main reasons behind the conflict.
President Vladimir Putin warned last month that using Western-supplied longer-range weapons for strikes deep inside Russia would be tantamount to “direct involvement” of NATO in the fighting.
The West is deliberately fueling the fighting in Ukraine because its ultimate goal is to weaken Russia, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has said.
In an interview with Slovak broadcaster STVR on Sunday, Fico expressed concern over the EU’s increasing involvement in the ongoing hostilities between Moscow and Kiev, arguing that the conflict cannot be resolved on the battlefield.
“There is a military conflict in a neighboring country where Slavs are killing each other, and Europe is significantly supporting this killing, which I just don’t understand,” Fico said. He added that the fighting “continues only because it is being strongly supported by the West.”
“The sooner it ends, the better it will be,” he stressed, arguing that the Western efforts to use the conflict to defeat Moscow would fail.
“Everyone thinks that through Ukraine we will bring the Russians to their knees, but this Russophobia does not work. It turns out that this problem cannot be solved militarily,” Fico stated.
Fico, a longtime critic of Western military aid to Kiev, promised to block Ukraine from ever joining NATO. Such a step could lay the groundwork for a potential World War III, he argued.
After winning the parliamentary election last year, Fico’s Smer-SD party has halted the delivery of weapons to Ukraine and has repeatedly called for a diplomatic resolution of the conflict. He pledged to restore trade and political ties with Moscow once the fighting ends, arguing that “the EU needs Russia, and Russia needs the EU.”
Moscow has denounced Western aid to Kiev, insisting that no amount of foreign aid would stop its troops in Ukraine.
October 7, 2024
Posted by aletho |
Militarism | NATO, Slovakia, Ukraine |
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DUBLIN – Ireland has rejected an Israeli request asking it to withdraw its peacekeeping troops from an outpost along the Lebanon-Israel border.
According to The Irish Times, the request was made on Friday through the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and came as Israel continued to pound Lebanon.
Ireland and UNIFIL has made it clear that the peacekeeping force will remain in place despite Israeli threats.
Ireland has a single outpost designated as post “6-52” on the border, known as the Blue Line. It is one of the several countries contributing troops to UNIFIL.
The Irish platoon stationed at the post is tasked with observing and reporting any incursions along the border.
Recently, the Israeli army made several failed attempts to invade southern Lebanon, amid ongoing aerial and artillery attacks that killed and injured hundreds of people.
October 5, 2024
Posted by aletho |
Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Militarism | Ireland, Israel, Lebanon, United Nations |
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Bloomberg revealed on Friday that two documents related to the US Department of Defence, or the Pentagon’s budget, submitted to the defence committees in Congress, confirmed the need to spend $1.2 billion on its operations in the Red Sea to continue confronting Iran and the Yemeni Houthi militia.
The document stated that the Pentagon will spend: “About $1.2 billion to maintain ships deployed as part of operations in the Red Sea and to replenish stocks of missiles fired to repel attacks by Iran and its proxies.”
The agency added: “The spending, detailed in two Sept. 6 budget documents submitted to congressional defence committees and posted online, helps shine a light on the cost of maintaining a stepped-up presence in the region, as well as shooting down drones and missiles deployed by Iran and one of its proxies, the Houthi rebels in Yemen.”
“About $190 million will be spent on the restock of the sea-launched RTX Corp. Standard Missile-3 Block 1B and about $8.5 million will go for more heat-seeking air-to-air AIM-X Sidewinder missiles, according to the documents,” reported Bloomberg.
The article also added that the bulk of the Pentagon’s projected spending for a year’s worth of operations in the Middle East is $300 million for unplanned maintenance on the USS Bataan amphibious assault ship and ships in the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, which conducted operations in the Red Sea, the Pentagon confirmed in the documents.
One of the documents states: “The spending is linked to costs incurred by the DoD within the US Central Command region in responding to the situation in Israel or to hostile actions in the region as a direct result of the situation in Israel.”
Each Standard Missile-3 Block IB costs between $9 and $10 million.
“Two Navy destroyers this week fired about 12 Standard Missiles in defending Israel from another wave of Iranian assaults on Tuesday, according to a Navy official who declined to disclose the exact models and asked not to be identified discussing non-public information. That means this week’s US assistance likely cost about $120 million,” disclosed Bloomberg.
The documents also reveal requests for $276 million for additional SM-6 Standard Missiles and $57.3 million for Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Another $6.7 million is earmarked for the Enhanced Sea Sparrow self-defence missile. All of those weapons are made by RTX.
The Pentagon will also spend $25 million on Boeing Co. Jdam-GPS guidance kits and $7.4 million for its Small Diameter Bomb. An additional $25 million will go to “increase manufacturing sources” for the Standard Missile to support the Pentagon response to what it calls “the situation in Israel”.
Another $20 million will be spent on additional BAE Systems PLC laser-guided Advance Precision Kill Weapon System rockets.
The report noted: “The request includes $26.4 million to replace RTX Coyote Block 2 drone interceptors expended since October 2023 in support of DoD’s response to the situation in Israel.”
October 5, 2024
Posted by aletho |
Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Militarism, Wars for Israel | Israel, Palestine, United States, Yemen, Zionism |
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NATO is planning to create an extra 49 combat-ready brigades with about 5,000 servicepeople in each that would bring a total number to 131 units, reported a German broadcaster on Saturday, citing the alliance’s unpublished documents.
The number of combat corps should be expanded from six to 15, and division headquarters from 24 to 38 to manage and support the extra brigades, the Minimum Capability Requirements, presented by NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. Christopher Cavoli and French Adm. Pierre Vandier, read, as cited by the broadcaster.
The alliance is also planning to boost the capabilities of ground anti-aircraft units five-fold to 1,467, the report said.
The necessity to build up military power is stipulated by the threat that allegedly comes from Russia, the report added.
October 5, 2024
Posted by aletho |
Militarism, Russophobia | NATO |
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Croatian President Zoran Milanovic has refused to contribute any troops to the NATO command for providing military aid to Kiev, arguing that this would draw Zagreb into direct conflict with Moscow.
The former Yugoslav republic has been a member of the US-led bloc since 2009. Its right-wing government has sent weapons and helicopters to Ukraine, over the objections of the president, who is a Social Democrat.
”While I am president and the commander in chief, Croatian soldiers, officers and NCOs will not take part in activities that would draw Croatia into a war,” Milanovic said on Thursday.
Milanovic has refused to contribute any personnel to the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) command, which the bloc established for the purpose of coordinating military aid to Kiev. Zagreb was supposed to send a handful of officers to the 700-strong NSATU staff in Wiesbaden, Germany.
Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic has accused the president of “further isolating Croatia on the international scene and destroying its credibility as a NATO member.”
Meanwhile, NATO has reminded Milanovic that the command was agreed at the July summit in Washington and that it would not involve sending any troops to Ukraine. The US-led bloc has argued that spending hundreds of billions of dollars to arm, train and supply Kiev’s war effort doesn’t actually make it a party to the conflict with Russia.
“Whether it’s one soldier or a hundred, wherever they are, this would be a direct command support to a warring party that is not a NATO member, which is out of bounds for Croatian national interests,” Milanovic replied on Thursday that “Croatia has an obligation to help allies, which is what we’ve been doing. Everything else is getting involved in a war, which I will not allow.”
He reminded the bloc that Zagreb has demonstrated its commitment by nearly doubling the number of Croatian troops in the NATO border force, from 300 to 520.
“I answer solely to the people of Croatia, not Washington and Brussels,” Milanovic said.
Under the Croatian constitution, Milanovic has the right to bar the deployment of troops abroad. The cabinet could override the president with a two-thirds vote in the parliament, but the ruling coalition is backed by only 78 out of 151 lawmakers.
Milanovic has long criticized the NATO policy of arming Ukraine to fight against Russia. He has also slammed the EU’s treatment of member states like Poland and Hungary, and accused Brussels of treating Croatia like a “retarded” child.
October 5, 2024
Posted by aletho |
Militarism | Croatia, NATO, Russia, Ukraine |
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Heavy fighting continued in southern Lebanon on 3 October, as Hezbollah fighters fiercely confronted the Israeli army’s incursions into the country’s territory and inflicted casualties among its ranks.
Israeli forces were struck with rockets on the outskirts of the Lebanese town of Odaisseh on Thursday afternoon, one of the towns where troops fell into a bloody ambush just a day earlier.
A Hezbollah guided-missile attack also hit a Merkava tank in the Natoa settlement not long before.
“When an Israeli enemy infantry force attempted to infiltrate towards the cemetery of the town of Yaroun, the Mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance detonated a Sejil explosive device at the advancing force at 12:00 noon on Thursday 10-3-2024, killing and wounding them,” Hezbollah said earlier, marking its 21st statement on 3 October.
Hezbollah announced shortly before that its fighters “detonated an explosive device at 12:00 noon on Thursday 10-3-2024 with a force from the Golani Brigade in the Tartira area in the town of Maroun al-Ras, which was trying to bypass the western side of the town.”
The members of the Golani Brigade force were killed or wounded, the Hezbollah statement added.
“Since dawn on Thursday, the Islamic Resistance fighters have been confronting all attempts by the elite forces of the Israeli enemy army to advance on more than one axis in southern Lebanon with various types of weapons and explosive devices, inflicting heavy losses on them in terms of equipment and personnel,” Hezbollah field sources told Al Manar on 3 October.
The sources added that the fighters continue to prevent any Israeli advance in southern Lebanon with pre-prepared ambushes. They also explained that Hezbollah also continued targeting supply lines and troop gatherings in several Israeli bases and sites along the border.
“The Islamic Resistance fighters targeted on Thursday 10-3-2024 a gathering of Israeli enemy forces in the Avivim settlement with a rocket salvo,” the Lebanese resistance announced.
It also fired rockets at troops in the Al-Bassa settlement and launched a Falaq rocket at Israeli positions in the Shomera settlement, as well as at the Sasa settlement.
Earlier on Thursday, Hezbollah detonated two explosive devices near an infantry force trying to enter the town of Maroun al-Ras.
Tel Aviv has so far admitted to the deaths of eight of its soldiers in southern Lebanon. It claims to have killed dozens of Hezbollah operatives.
A Hezbollah field source told Al Mayadeen on 2 October that more than 80 Israeli soldiers and officers are between dead and wounded, adding that the Lebanese resistance has destroyed five Merkava tanks.
“What is coming is more painful for the enemy,” the field source said.
An Israeli M113 remote control army vehicle was abandoned inside the border village Kfar Kila on Thursday. Hezbollah has forced troops to retreat several times during the incursions that the Israeli army has been attempting to carry out since Wednesday morning.
Israel has meanwhile continued to bombard south Lebanon heavily and issued evacuation orders to residents in over two dozen villages.
Two Lebanese army soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon on 3 October, including one who was helping coordinate an evacuation of civilians with the Red Cross.
October 4, 2024
Posted by aletho |
Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Militarism | Hezbollah, Israel, Lebanon, Zionism |
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On October 1st, Iran launched scores of missiles at the Zionist entity, in response to the murder of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, among many brazen provocations and escalations targeting the Resistance in recent months. Voluminous footage of key Israeli infrastructure, including military and intelligence sites, being comprehensively flattened by the Islamic Republic’s inexorable onslaught has circulated widely, amply contradicting predictable claims emanating from Tel Aviv and Washington that the blitzkrieg was successfully repelled by Western air defence systems.
It is the largest, most devastating attack on the Zionist entity in its 76-year history. The full impact is not yet apparent. While US officials worriedly warned hours in advance they possessed “indications” Iran was preparing to attack Israel, the incursion’s timing, scale, and severity caught all concerned by surprise. Washington dispatching thousands more troops across West Asia in the days prior, explicitly in Israel’s defence, was evidently no deterrent to Tehran.
That deployment came replete with a supposedly rock-solid Pentagon pledge to come to the rescue should the Islamic Republic seek to repeat the historic, wide-ranging drone and rocket barrage to which it subjected the Zionist entity in April. Department of Defense apparatchiks boldly declared they and Tel Aviv alike were “even better prepared for a new Iranian attack” than last time round. The ease with which Israel’s purportedly impregnable Iron Dome was bested exposes this braggadocio as hopeless hubris at best, dangerous delusion at worst.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is ever-cautious, and has acted with extraordinary restraint since the 21st century Holocaust erupted in Gaza. Some analysts have interpreted this implacable self-control, and Tehran’s lack of immediate backlash against acts such as the audacious assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil, as not merely rigid reluctance to escalate into all-out war with Israel and its Western backers, but an inability to respond at all. Tel Aviv’s unprecedented October 1st battering should dispel any such inference.
Senior Israeli politician Yair Golan, who returned to Israeli Occupation Force (IOF) service following October 7th, has branded Iran’s latest assault a “declaration of war” against the Zionist entity. Notorious Benny Gantz boasts Tel Aviv “has capabilities that were developed for years to strike Iran, and the government has [our] full backing to act with force and determination.” Meanwhile, IOF spokesperson Daniel Hagari declares, “there was a serious attack on us and there will be serious consequences.”
The IRGC appears to have calculated such threats and pronouncements will be as empty and meaningless as the Pentagon’s pledge to be “better prepared” for a future Iranian strike. At the very least, the Islamic Republic fears no Anglo-Israeli retaliation to its latest broadside. That may mean Tehran has grounds to believe the balance of power in the region, and in any future large-scale conflict with the Zionist entity and West, has irrevocably tipped in favour of the Resistance.
Eerily, a little-noticed report published September 19th by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), a powerful and shadowy Zionist lobby organisation, inadvertently reached this same conclusion. It laid out in forensic detail how the Empire will be on the defence, and at grave disadvantage, in all-out hot war with Iran. Along the way, a blueprint for Resistance victory was plainly sketched. With Tehran having thrown down a gauntlet on October 1st, we could now be seeing that plan being put into action.
‘Gaining Overmatch’
Titled U.S. Bases in the Middle East: Overcoming the Tyranny of Geography, JINSA’s report was authored by former CENTCOM commander Frank McKenzie, who oversaw the Empire’s disastrous retreat from Afghanistan. It appraises the viability, value, and force projection capabilities of current US military installations throughout West Asia, focusing on Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. The findings are stark, calling for an immediate overhaul of American basing across the region:
“Our current basing structure, inherited from years of haphazard decision-making, and driven by divergent operational and political principles, has yielded installations that are not optimally situated for the most likely threats of today and the future in the region.”
Despite mentioning “threats” in plural, JINSA’s sole focus is the Islamic Republic. While a myriad of issues with the Empire’s modern day positioning throughout West Asia are identified, the “most important” conclusion drawn is that Washington’s “current basing array detracts from our ability to deter Iran and fight them effectively in a high-intensity scenario.” McKenzie is nonetheless at pains to portray Tehran as somewhat feeble and vulnerable:
“The Iranians have no army that can be deployed as an invading force. They have a small and ineffective navy, and in practical terms, no air force. Their missile and drone force, though, is capable of gaining overmatch against many of its neighbors… they can deploy more attacking missiles and drones than can be defended against.”
As such, JINSA notes, “a theater-level war with Iran would be a war of missiles and drones,” and Tehran’s April 13th attack on Israel was a “comprehensive demonstration of Iranian operational design.” The IRGC sought to overwhelm the Zionist entity’s air defences and radar systems with waves of low-cost drones and cruise missiles, to “make it difficult for Iron Dome or Patriot to engage the ballistic missiles that followed.”
McKenzie correctly forecast that the April strike would “probably remain the basic template for large-scale Iranian attacks.” He appraised the effort – “at least conceptually” – as “a sound one,” from which “there are lessons for all to learn.” The most pressing and “obvious” takeout was, “for the defenders of the Gulf, it will be a war of strike aircraft, tankers, and air and missile defense… and here is the problem”:
“These aircraft are largely based at locations along the southern coast of the Arabian Gulf… an artifact of planning against Russian incursions in the 1970s, and the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns of the early decades of this century. They are close to Iran, which means they have a short trip to the fight… but that is also their great vulnerability. They are so close to Iran that it takes but five minutes or less for missiles launched from Iran to reach their bases.”
The “thousands of short-range missiles” Iran possesses are also a key negative “factor”, offering “no strategic depth.” While an F-35 fighter jet “is very hard to hit in the air… on the ground it is nothing more than a very expensive and vulnerable chunk of metal sitting in the sun.” Refuelling and rearming facilities on US bases in West Asia “are also vulnerable, and they cannot be moved.” Most damagingly of all:
“These bases are all defended by Patriot and other defensive systems. Unfortunately, at such close range to Iran, the ability of the attacker to mass fires and overwhelm the defense is very real.”
In closing his roadmap to Tehran’s victory, McKenzie bitterly laments, “it is hard to escape the conclusion that our current basing structure is poorly postured for the most likely fight that will emerge.” The Empire “will not be able to maintain these bases in a full-throated conflict, because they will be rendered unusable by sustained Iranian attack.” Imperial overreach in West Asia has now fallen victim to “the simple tyranny of geography.” And all along, the Islamic Republic has been taking rigorous notes:
“The Iranians can see this problem just as clearly as we do, and that is one of the reasons why they have created their large and highly capable missile and drone force.”
‘Nothing But Force’
For all the JINSA report’s doom and gloom, McKenzie does express some optimism – of the most fantastical, self-deceived kind. For one, he suggests Iran cannot threaten the Empire’s “carrier-based aviation” capabilities. Still, he concedes “there aren’t enough carriers, and therefore naval aviation will probably not be the central weapon in a fires war with Iran.” The former CENTCOM chief also conveniently overlooks AnsarAllah’s recent crushing defeat of the US Navy during Operation Prosperity Guardian, which unambiguously exposed the redundancy of US aircraft carriers altogether.
Elsewhere, McKenzie declares that the Empire “needs to move aggressively to develop basing alternatives that demonstrate that it is prepared to fight and prevail in a sustained high-intensity war” with Tehran, and therefore “overcome unfavorable basing geography.” One radical solution proposed by the JINSA report is to “consider basing in Israel”. US military presence in Tel Aviv has already been slowly growing over recent years. While largely unacknowledged and downplayed, it has proven incredibly controversial every step of the way.
In September 2017, the IOF announced the arrival of America’s first permanent military installation in the Zionist entity. Such was the backlash domestically and regionally, officials in Washington raced to deny this was the case, prompting a major cleanup of IOF websites referencing the site. Any move to create a fully-fledged US base in Israel, explicitly for war-fighting purposes, would inevitably spark even greater outcry, and be considered as a major escalation by the Resistance, demanding a drastic response.
Such an eventuality undoubtedly didn’t occur to the former CENTCOM chief. His analysis is hazardously unsound and fallacious in other areas too. On top of Israel’s “geographic advantages”, he praises Tel Aviv’s “powerful, proven air and missile defense capability.” It was this “competence”, combined with “US and allied assistance, and the cooperation and assistance of Arab neighbors”, that ensured Iran’s April strike on the Zionist entity was a “failure”, McKenzie muses.
He appraises this group effort, which supposedly prevented Iran from delivering decapitation strikes against the Zionist entity’s military and intelligence structure, as “in every measurable way… a remarkable success story.” If McKenzie’s view was shared by the Pentagon, this may explain why the US was so caught off guard by, and ill-prepared for, Tehran’s recent bludgeoning of Israel. Far from an embarrassing cataclysm, the April effort was a spectacular success, which exposed Israel’s fatal weaknesses, and reshaped West Asia forever.
Far from wanting to deliver a death blow, the Islamic Republic sought to deliver a measured, well-advertised show of strength, while avoiding further escalation, and a wider response. In the process, the IRGC demonstrated that if it wished, in future its missiles could successfully bypass the Iron Dome, and would wreak immense destruction. Then, a “new equation” was spelled out by a Corps Commander:
“If from now on the Zionist regime attacks our interests, assets, personalities, and citizens, at any point we will attack against them.”
That message was evidently not received in corridors of power in Brussels, London, Tel Aviv, and Washington. This is apparent from JINSA’s report, which states “events of the past two months clearly show that Iran can be deterred from undertaking irresponsible and deadly attacks in the region,” in reference to a lack of retaliation to the Zionist entity’s provocations during this time. It seems the finest Western military minds fell into the trap of believing no response was forthcoming from Tehran, because there couldn’t and wouldn’t be.
Fast forward today, and the question of whether the battlefield primacy of the Resistance in West Asia will finally be comprehended by their adversaries, in light of October 1st, remains an open one. As Russian military strategist Igor Korotchenko once observed, “this Anglo-Saxon breed understands nothing but force.”
October 4, 2024
Posted by aletho |
Militarism, Wars for Israel | Iran, Israel, Middle East, Palestine, United States, Zionism |
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Moscow’s ambassador to Israel has urged Russian citizens to leave the country, after Iran fired nearly 200 missiles at the Jewish state in response to Israeli strikes on Lebanon.
Speaking to TASS news agency on Thursday, Anatoly Viktorov expressed alarm over the “heightened escalation” in the Middle East.
“We are advising those who are currently in Israel to think about leaving while there are still regular flights” operated by airlines including Israeli national carrier El Al, the diplomat told TASS.
Viktorov urged Russian nationals to consider “risks to their lives and health” before making decisions about traveling to Israel. “The situation in Israel and the neighboring countries is highly intense,” he stressed.
Multiple Russian airlines canceled flights over Israel, Iran and Iraq earlier this week in line with recommendations from Russia’s civil aviation agency. Iran’s missile barrage prompted a Doha-bound plane carrying a Russian deputy prime minister to turn around mid-flight and return to Russia on Wednesday.
Moscow advised its citizens to avoid traveling to Israel shortly after the war with Hamas broke out in October 2023.
October 4, 2024
Posted by aletho |
Militarism | Israel, Middle East, Russia |
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