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Iran’s Bomb Is Real — And It’s Here

For months now, the world has focused on the danger of nuclear war between the United States and Russia. But Iran and Israel could beat them to it.

By Scott Ritter | Consortium News | October 20, 2024

The outbreak of conflict between Iran and Israel appears to have changed Iran’s stance against possessing a nuclear weapon as Israel is poised to strike after Teheran’s retaliation with two major attacks of drones and ballistic and cruise missiles.

Iran has issued at least three statements through official channels since April that has opened the door to the possibility of religious edicts against Iran acquiring nuclear weapons being rescinded.

The circumstances which Iran has said must exist to justify this reversal appear to have now been met.

No mere threats, these statements issued by Teheran should be viewed as declaratory policy indicating Iran has already made the decision to obtain a nuclear weapon; that the means to do so are already in place and that this decision can be implemented in a matter of days once the final political order is given.

The religious fatwa against possessing nuclear weapons was issued in October 2003 by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It reads:

“We believe that adding to nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction, such as chemical weapons and biological weapons, are a serious threat to humanity… [w]e consider the use of these weapons to be haram (forbidden), and the effort to protect mankind from this great disaster is everyone’s duty.”

However, the Shia faith holds that fatwas are not inherently permanent, and Islamic jurists can reinterpret the scripture in accord with the needs of time.

Shortly after Iran launched Operation True Promise against Israel in April, Ahmad Haghtalab, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander responsible for the security for Iran’s nuclear sites, declared:

“If [Israel] wants to exploit the threat of attacking our country’s nuclear centers as a tool to put pressure on Iran, it is possible and conceivable to revise the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear doctrine and policies to deviate from previously declared considerations.”

In May, Kamal Kharrazi, a former foreign minister who advises the Supreme Leader, declared: “We [Iran] have no decision to build a nuclear bomb, but should Iran’s existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine.”

And earlier this month Iranian lawmakers called for a review of Iran’s defense doctrine to consider adopting nuclear weapons as the risk of escalation with Israel continues to grow. The legislators noted that the Supreme Leader can reconsider the fatwa against nuclear weapons on the grounds that the circumstances have changed.

These statements, seen together, constitute a form of declaratory policy which, given the sources involved, imply that a political decision has already been made to build a nuclear bomb once the national security criterion has been met.

Has the Capability

Iran has for some time now possessed the ability to manufacture and weaponize nuclear explosive devices. Using highly enriched uranium, Iran could construct in a matter of days a simple gun-type weapon that could be used in a ballistic missile warhead.

In June Iran informed the IAEA that it was installing some 1,400 advanced centrifuges at its Fordow facility. Based upon calculations derived from Iran’s on-hand stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium hexaflouride (the feedstock used in centrifuge-based enrichment), Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium (i.e., above 90 percent) to manufacture 3-5 uranium-based weapons in days.

All that is needed is the political will to do so. It appears that Iran has crossed this threshold, meaning that the calculus behind any Israeli and/or U.S. attack on Iran has been forever changed.

Iran has made no bones about this new reality. In February, the former chief of the Atomic Energy Organization, Ali-Akbar Salehi, stated that Iran has crossed “all the scientific and technological nuclear thresholds” to build a nuclear bomb, noting that Iran had accumulated all the necessary components for a nuclear weapon, minus the highly enriched uranium.

Two weeks later, Javad Karimi Ghodousi, a member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, declared that if the supreme leader “issues permission, we would be a week away from testing the first [nuclear bomb]“, later adding that Iran “needs half a day or maximum a week to build a nuclear warhead.”

A simple gun-type nuclear weapon would not need to be tested — the “Little Boy“ device dropped on Hiroshima by the U.S. on Aug. 6, 1945 was a gun-type device that was deemed so reliable that it could be used operationally without any prior testing.

Iran would need between 75 and 120 pounds of highly enriched uranium per gun-type device (the more sophisticated the design, the less material would be needed). Regardless, the payload of the Fatah-1 solid-fueled hypersonic missile, which was used in the Oct. 1 attack on Israel, is some 900 pounds—more than enough capacity to carry a gun-type uranium weapon.

Given the fact that the ballistic missile shield covering Israel was unable to intercept the Fatah-1 missile, if Iran were to build, deploy, and employ a nuclear-armed Fatah-1 missile against Israel, there is a near 100 percent certainty that it would hit its target.

Iran would need 3-5 nuclear weapons of this type to completely destroy Israel’s ability to function as a modern industrial nation.

Consequences of Pulling Out of Iran Nuclear Deal

This situation came about after President Donald Trump in 2017 withdrew the U.S. from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — the JCPOA, better known as the Iran nuclear deal. The driving factor behind the negotiation of the JCPOA, which took place under President Barack Obama, was to shut down Iran’s pathway to a nuclear weapon. As Obama said,

“Put simply, under this deal, there is a permanent prohibition on Iran ever having a nuclear weapons program and a permanent inspections regime that goes beyond any previous inspection regime in Iran. This deal provides the IAEA the means to make sure Iran isn’t doing so, both through JCPOA-specific verification tools, some of which last up to 25 years, and through the Additional Protocol that lasts indefinitely. In addition, Iran made commitments in this deal that include prohibitions on key research and development activities that it would need to design and construct a nuclear weapon. Those commitments have no end date.”

Early on in his administration, in June 2021, after Trump had already pulled the U.S. out of the deal, President Joe Biden declared that Iran would “never get a nuclear weapon on my watch.”

The director of U.S. National Intelligence said in a statement released Oct. 11 that, “We assess that the Supreme Leader has not made a decision to resume the nuclear weapons program that Iran suspended in 2003.”

In the aftermath of Trump’s precipitous decision to withdraw from the JCPOA, Iran took actions which underscored that it no longer felt constrained by any JCPOA limits.

Iran has expanded its nuclear program by installing advanced centrifuge cascades used to enrich uranium and scaled back International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring of its nuclear program. In short, Iran has positioned itself to produce a nuclear weapon on short order.

While the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) currently believes that the Supreme Leader has not made the political decision to do so, an assessment published in July contains a telling omission from past assessments of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

The February 2024 ODNI assessment noted that, “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.”

However, this statement went missing from the July 2024 assessment, a clear indication that the U.S. intelligence community, due in large part to the reduction in IAEA inspection activity, lacks the insight into critical technical aspects of Iran’s nuclear-related industries.

Senator Lindsey Graham, after reading the classified version of the July 2024 ODNI report on Iran, said he was “very worried” that “Iran will in the coming weeks or months possess a nuclear weapon.”

What Confronts the US & Israel

This is the situation confronting Israel and the United States as they decide on an Israeli retaliation against Iran for the Oct. 1 missile attack.

Iran has indicated that any attack against its nuclear or oil and gas production capabilities would be viewed as existential in nature. That could trigger the reversal of the fatwa and the deployment of nuclear weapons within days of such a decision being made.

President Joe Biden told reporters on Friday that he knows when and where Israel will strike but refused to say. Leaked U.S. intelligence documents in recent days showed the limits of U.S. knowledge of exactly what Israel plans to do. 

The United States and nuclear-power Israel have long said that a nuclear-armed Iran was a red line which could not be crossed without severe consequences, namely massive military intervention designed to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

That line has been crossed — Iran is a de facto nuclear power, even if it hasn’t taken the final steps to complete the construction of a nuclear bomb.

The consequences of attacking Iran could prove fatal to the attackers and possibly the whole region.

October 23, 2024 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Wars for Israel | , , , | Leave a comment

Russian, Omani naval flotillas arrive in Iran to take part in Maritime Exercise

Press TV – October 18, 2024

Flotillas of Russian and Omani warships have arrived in Iran’s territorial waters in the Persian Gulf to participate in the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) Maritime Exercise “IMEX 2024,” which will be hosted by the Southern Fleet of the Iranian Navy in the coming days.

The warships docked in the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas on Friday and were received by the Iranian Navy and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) helicopters and naval vessels upon arrival.

Representatives of several other countries, like Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Thailand, also landed at Bandar Abbas International Airport to take part in the war game as observers.

The purpose of the “IMEX 2024” joint naval exercise is to increase collective security in the region, expand multilateral cooperation, and display the goodwill and capabilities to safeguard peace, friendship and maritime security.

The participants in the exercise will also practice tactics to ensure international maritime trade security, protect maritime routes, enhance humanitarian measures, and exchange information on rescue and relief operations.

The IONS features 24 Indian Ocean littoral states, which gather biennially for multilateral meetings and naval exercises.

The IONS seeks to increase maritime cooperation among navies and provide a forum for discussion of regional maritime issues and the promotion of friendly relationships.

October 18, 2024 Posted by | Aletho News | , , | Leave a comment

Three Paths to a Wider War in the Middle East

By Ted Snider | The Libertarian Institute | October 17, 2024

“We’re going to do everything we can to keep a wider war from breaking out,” U.S. President Joe Biden promised when war erupted in Gaza. But that foreign policy legacy is in tatters. War has spread from Gaza to Lebanon and has arrived at the doorstep of Iran. There is a real danger that the war could continue to spread.

On October 1, Iran demonstrated its capability to evade Israel’s air defense systems and deliver ballistic missiles to their targets in Israel. Since then, Hezbollah has demonstrated the ability to evade Israel’s air defense systems with slower moving drones.

Israel has promised a response that “will be lethal, precise and above all, surprising.” Iran has promised that if that happens, their “retaliation will be stronger than the previous one.” In a limping effort to still contain the war, rather than withhold American supplied weapons from Israel if they hit targets in Iran the United States deems too escalatory, the U.S. promised to reward Israel with a “compensation package” of comprehensive diplomatic and weapons protection if they restrained from striking those targets.

Those ballistic missile and drone demonstrations may have made the added protection seem desirable. On October 9, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Biden that Israel will not strike nuclear or oil facilities in Iran in the current round of retaliations, targeting, instead, only military facilities. U.S. officials believe that calibration could make further escalation less likely.

But even if Israel avoids hitting nuclear enrichment and oil production sites, military strikes, sabotage or assassinations could still bring the risk of a wider war. That wider war could happen in three ways.

The first is that Iran has promised to retaliate if Israel retaliates, and that promise did not specifically restrict itself only to strikes on nuclear and oil facilities. Iran could still feel the need to respond to significant strikes on missile launchers, missile or drone factories or warehouses, military bases or to assassinations of high ranking military or political leaders. That response is promised to be “decisive and regretful” and more severe than the October 1 one and would surely lead to further escalation. Israel has not promised that they will not strike nuclear or oil facilities the next time.

The second is that the Israeli defense against any Iranian retaliation to strikes on Iranian military facilities could draw the United States into a war with Iran. Upon receipt of the Israeli promise not to strike excessively escalatory sites, the Biden administration delivered on its promised “compensation package.” That package featured an advanced missile defense system called a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD, which is intended to help Israel defend against ballistic missiles.

But the really controversial part of the package is that the THAAD will be accompanied by around 100 U.S. troops who will be operating it. That means that American troops will be inserted directly in the conflict and could be on the ground in Israel shooting down Iranian missiles. That, from Iran’s perspective, could place the United States at war with Iran and could put American assets in the region in Iran’s targets. It also creates the possibility of U.S. troops being killed in Israel.

The third is that, though it is far from certain, as in Ukraine, the United States risks getting drawn into a conflict with Russia. Iran is now a full member of the Russia and China-led international multipolar organizations BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. At the upcoming BRICS summit later this month, Iran is expected to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership with Russia. On October 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and on September 30, the day before the Iranian strikes on Israel, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin was in Tehran. And The New York Times reports that “Iran has requested advanced air-defense systems from Russia as it prepares for a possible war with Israel” and that “Russia has started delivering advanced radars and air-defense equipment.”

Despite the Biden administration’s confidence that it could contain the war in Gaza from becoming a wider war, both events and America’s response to those events, have raised the risk of a wider war.

October 17, 2024 Posted by | Wars for Israel | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Russia warns Israel against attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities

RT | October 17, 2024

Israel must refrain from even considering the option of striking Iranian nuclear infrastructure, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov warned in a statement to journalists on Thursday.

Tensions between Tehran and West Jerusalem have escalated in the weeks since Iran launched nearly 200 missiles at Israeli territory on October 1. Iran has said the strikes were conducted in retaliation for the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, as well as an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) general last month.

Israel has since vowed a “deadly, pinpoint accurate, and surprising” response to the attack, with Israeli lawmakers calling for devastating strikes on Tehran’s energy infrastructure, including its nuclear facilities. An ABC News report on Thursday also claimed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already signed off on a set of targets for the IDF’s response.

Ryabkov has stressed that attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be “catastrophic” and stated that Russia has “repeatedly warned and continues to caution [Israel] against even hypothetically considering the possibility” of such strikes.

“This would be a catastrophic development and a complete negation of all existing postulates in the area of ensuring nuclear safety,” the deputy minister said.

Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also cautioned Israel against striking Iran’s civilian nuclear facilities, stating that such an attack would be a “serious provocation.”

Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic has urged the Jewish state to refrain from taking further disproportionate escalatory steps, stressing that it would deliver a “decisive and regretful” response if Israel chose to retaliate for the October 1 missile strikes.

One Iranian source also told RT last week that if West Jerusalem did decide to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure, such as oil refineries, power plants and nuclear facilities, Tehran would respond by striking similar targets in Israel.

October 17, 2024 Posted by | Nuclear Power, War Crimes | , , , | Leave a comment

Iran Halts Flights to Europe Over Sanctions Slapped on Iran Air – Association

Sputnik – 15.10.2024

TEHRAN – Iran has suspended all flights to Europe after the European Union imposed sanctions against the Iran Air national carrier, the Association of Iranian Airlines (AIRA) said on Tuesday.

“Iran Air was the only airline that operated flights to Europe in our country. After new EU sanctions were imposed on Iran Air, no Iranian aircraft will fly to Europe,” AIRA Secretary General Maqsoud Asadi Samani was quoted as saying by the Ilna news agency.

Brussels accused the persons and entities under the latest package of sanctions of being involved in ballistic missile supplies to Russia. Iran rejected the accusations.

On Monday, the Council of the EU adopted sanctions against seven Iranian individuals and seven organizations, including Iran Air, for alleged military cooperation with Russia.

October 15, 2024 Posted by | Economics | , , | Leave a comment

US says can’t continue supplying Ukraine, Israel together as Tel Aviv faces munitions shortage

Press TV – October 15, 2024

Israel is scrambling to supply interceptor missiles amid a looming shortage as the regime is bracing for more retaliatory attacks from the regional resistance, more than a year after it launched the genocidal war on Gaza, a report says.

The report by the the Financial Times came as the United States on Sunday confirmed that its military is sending an anti-missile system operated by American troops to aid the Israeli forces following the Tel Aviv regime’s failure to defend itself against Iran and as Tel Aviv has threatened it will attack Iranian sites.

“Israel’s munitions issue is serious,” the Financial Times cited Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official with responsibility for the West Asia, as saying on Tuesday.

“If Iran responds to an Israel attack [with a massive air strike campaign], and [Lebanon’s] Hezbollah joins in too, Israel air defenses will be stretched,” she said, noting that US stockpiles were not limitless.

“The US can’t continue supplying Ukraine and Israel at the same pace. We are reaching a tipping point.”

Boaz Levy, chief executive of Israel Aerospace Industries, which makes the Arrow interceptors used to down ballistic missiles, said he was running triple shifts to keep production lines running.

“Some of our lines are working 24 hours, seven days a week. Our goal is to meet all our obligations,” Levy said.

While Israel does not disclose the size of its stockpiles, he said “it is no secret that we need to replenish stocks.”

Since early October 2023, Israel has been waging brutal two-front aggression that has killed more than 42,000 people in the Gaza Strip and at least 2,306 others in Lebanon so far.

Over the same period, the usurping regime has also assassinated several resistance leaders, including Hamas’s political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

In support of Palestinians in Gaza, resistance groups have launched retaliatory attacks on Israeli targets and vowed to keep fighting until the Gaza onslaught ends.

In response to Israel’s barbaric acts of assassination against the resistance front’s top leaders, Iran carried out Operation True Promise 2 earlier this month.

During the operation, Iran launched some 200 high-speed ballistic missiles at the Zionist entity’s military, espionage and intelligence bases, sending almost 10 million settlers into bomb shelters. Ninety percent of the fired Iranian missiles hit their targets.

Despite Israel’s intensified strikes on Lebanon, Hezbollah managed to conduct the deadliest strikes on the occupied territories in the past year over the weekend.

“We are not seeing Hezbollah’s full capability yet. It has only been firing at around a tenth of its estimated prewar launching capacity, a few hundred rockets a day instead of as many as 2,000,” Assaf Orion, a former Israeli brigadier general and head of strategy at the Israeli military, said.

“Some of that gap is a choice by Hezbollah not to go full out, and some of it is due to degradation by the IDF [Israeli military]. . . But Hezbollah has enough left to mount a strong operation,” Orion added.

“Haifa and northern Israel are still on the receiving end of rocket and drone attacks almost every day.”

Amid the rising retaliatory operations, the report cited analysts as saying “defense planners and Israel’s AI-powered air defenses were having to choose which areas to protect over others.”

“It’s only a matter of time before Israel starts to run out of interceptors and has to prioritize how they are deployed,” said Ehud Eilam, a former researcher at Israel’s ministry of military affairs.

October 15, 2024 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Militarism | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Iran’s Missiles: Ted Postol sets the record straight

Daniel Davis | Deep Dive | October 11, 2024

October 15, 2024 Posted by | Militarism, Video | , , , , | Leave a comment

Placing THAAD in Israel is High-Stakes Poker Game the US Risks Losing: Here’s Why

By Ilya Tsukanov – Sputnik – 14.10.2024

Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder confirmed on Sunday that President Biden and Pentagon chief Austin had signed off on the deployment of a US Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile battery and associated crew in Israel. The decision is fraught with a broad spectrum of risks for Washington. Here’s why.

THAAD’s deployment in Israel “underscores the United States’ ironclad commitment to the defense of Israel, and to defend Americans in Israel, from any further ballistic missile attacks by Iran. It is part of the broader adjustments the US military has made in recent months, to support the defense of Israel and protect Americans from attacks by Iran and Iranian-aligned militias,” Ryder assured in Sunday’s press release.

Tehran has made clear that it has no illusions about the deployment’s purpose. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized Sunday that along with its delivery of record quantities of weaponry to Israel, Washington is “now also putting the lives of its troops at risk by deploying them to operate US missile systems.”

“While we have made tremendous efforts in recent days to contain an all-out war in our region, I say it clearly that we have no red lines in defending our people and interests,” Araghchi warned, referencing Tehran’s commitment to respond to any further aggression by Tel Aviv following the retaliatory Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israeli military and intelligence sites on October 1.

Iranian media, meanwhile, have warned that the presence of the THAAD in Israel will make no difference in Tehran’s military strategy – with Iranian missiles proving capable of puncturing Israel’s sophisticated, mulitlayered air and missile defense shield, and able to do so again if necessary if and when the US missile defense system is deployed.

A PressTV explainer published Monday pointed to footage released late last week purportedly showing a Raytheon X-band radar like the one that’s part of the THAAD system being knocked out in an Iranian precision strike ahead of the broader missile barrage on October 1. If authenticated, the footage would help explain why – as footage posted to social media and satellite images appear to show – dozens of Iranian missiles managed to reach their target without interference from Israeli air defenses.

The explainer pointed out that Iran’s Kheibar Shekan (lit. ‘Castle Buster’ or ‘Fortress Buster’) series missiles “easily penetrated Israel’s much-touted air defenses,” including the David’s Sling and Arrow-3 interceptors, on October 1, and offered details on how they could pull off a similar triumph against THAAD.

“The Kheibar Shekan-1 evaded the Arrow-3 system, which operates only outside the atmosphere, by flying below its engagement envelope. By the time it came within range of the Arrow-2 system, it was already flying too low to be effectively intercepted,” the analysis indicated. Evasive maneuvering “allowed it to easily defeat David’s Sling,” the outlet added.

And while THAAD’s ability to engage targets at lower altitudes may potentially make it more effective against the Kheibar Shekan-1, the Kheibar Shekan-2’s longer range (1,800 km vs 1,450 km, respectively) and “more aerodynamic glide vehicle allows it to ‘trade’ its extended range for low-altitude gliding, keeping it below the THAAD system’s engagement envelope, particularly at altitudes below 35 km. This enables the missile to bypass THAAD entirely and effectively and reach its target,” the PressTV report noted.

The explainer pointed out that even the Kheibar Shekan-1 stands a chance of defeating THAAD if it targets sites “near the edge” of the American system’s range. That’s not to mention the fact that THAAD, while advanced, is also extremely costly, which means “limits [to] the number of available interceptors, especially compared to the sheer volume and size of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal,” which could theoretically just saturate Israeli/US defenses.

Losing prestige associated with the THAAD would pose serious military and geopolitical risks for Washington, not only given the dangers associated with the loss of American troops’ lives if Iran struck the missile defense system itself, but the loss of prestige associated with the $1 billion piece of American military equipment proving helpless against an adversary. The US and its allies have already faced a reality check regarding the much-touted ‘superiority’ of their weapons in the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. An Iranian strike overwhelming America’s most sophisticated and pricey missile defense system could drive the final nail into the coffin of global attitudes about the supremacy of Western arms, including among its allies.

Geopolitical Risks, Domestic Risks

Then there are risks to the Biden administration’s foreign and domestic policy.

“The Americans deployed THAAD as part of preparation for an Iranian response to an upcoming Israeli attack,” Yeghia Tashjian, political analyst, regional and international affairs cluster coordinator at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, American University of Beirut, told Sputnik.

The THAAD plans signal that the US is now firmly “stuck” in the war in the Middle East, even though this is “something that most probably the Biden administration doesn’t want,” Tashjian explained, saying he wouldn’t be surprised if the US military deployment in Israel now expands further.

The White House has every reason to want to avoid further involvement, the observer stressed, pointing to the upcoming presidential elections and the power of the Arab voting bloc, crucial for Democrats in the swing state of Michigan, not to mention the general lack of public interest in US involvement in a new misadventure in the Middle East.

As far as US foreign policy goals are concerned, an escalation of the Mideast crisis could delay further US and NATO arms deliveries to Ukraine, Tashjian pointed out, highlighting the recent cancelation of a planned Ramstein Format meeting on Ukraine aid.

“The West cannot fight on multiple fronts,” the observer emphasized, pointing out that besides Gaza, Lebanon and Ukraine, the US may soon have its hands full against a rising China, and see a new escalation in long-standing tensions in the Korean Peninsula.

A War Not Meant to Be Won?

The US would prefer a “managed conflict” between Israel and Hezbollah or Israel and Iran, Tashjian believes. Washington’s ability to achieve this goal is another matter, since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “is not in favor of managing this war or even engaging in a ceasefire,” but prolonging it and getting the US directly involved, the observer said.

“The main intention of Israel is to involve the Americans directly into this war, because Netanyahu has made it clear that he wants to change and establish a ‘new Middle East’. And in this attempt, he needs American, British and other European help because he cannot fight on multiple fronts and especially against Iran,” which proved on October 1 that it “has capabilities to attack and inflict some damage against Israel. Israel does not want to feel vulnerable or alone in its fight against Iran,” Tashjian summed up.

October 14, 2024 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Wars for Israel | , , , | Leave a comment

Do They Want American Troops to Die?

By Dan McAdams | Ron Paul Institute | October 14, 2024

Biden administration mismanagement—or worse—from day one of the latest Israeli multi-front war in the Middle East has led us to where we are today, at the brink of an all-out regional war with some 40,000 U.S. troops and multiple U.S. military bases in the region with targets on their back.

Biden’s blank check to Israel after the attacks of October 7, 2023, to launch multiple wars against its neighbors and carry out the mass murder of Palestinian civilians in Gaza has drawn the U.S. right into the middle of a bubbling cauldron of [World War III]. And rather than take a sober look at actual U.S. national security interests, Biden and his neocon incompetents are busy adding fuel to the fire hanging on to the pipe dream that they could do what they failed to do so many times before: remake the Middle East in their neocon image.

According to an article in Politico this past week, while Biden administration officials publicly urged restraint and a reduction in violence, they privately were working with the Israeli government to encourage a widening of Israel’s military operations to include its northern neighbor, Lebanon. Two top Biden administration officials, Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk, urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to shift Israel’s military focus from the already-flattened Gaza northward to Lebanon.

As Politico reports:

“Behind the scenes, Hochstein, McGurk and other top U.S. national security officials are describing Israel’s Lebanon operations as a history-defining moment—one that will reshape the Middle East for the better for years to come.”

Where have we heard this kind of “let’s do war to re-shape the Middle East” argument before? As Wikileaks reminds us, appearing before the U.S. Congress in 2002 and urging the U.S. to attack Iraq, Netanyahu himself promised that “If you take out Saddam, Saddam’s regime, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region.”

Yeah, Bibi. How’d that work out for us?

So why is it that 22 years later senior U.S. officials are echoing Netanyahu’s bogus 2002 lies to draw the U.S. into another “history-defining” catastrophe in the Middle East? For Hochstein it might be that he is not the unbiased “honest broker” we need to keep us out of unnecessary war. After all, as The New York Times reminds us, Hochstein was born in Israel, had/has Israeli citizenship, and even served in the Israeli Defense Forces!

Now he is serving as President Biden’s top advisor for the Middle East—a position where it is critical to bring no personal biases to the table.

This should not automatically disqualify him from the position, of course, but just as with concerns over Victoria Nuland and Antony Blinken’s Ukrainian background, neocons pushing for war in the “old country” from which they should have left old allegiances behind should raise a few eyebrows.

McGurk is similarly compromised, as he is another Victoria Nuland/Zelig-like character [creature] who has spent his career weaseling into Republican and Democratic administrations as an “expert,” while his actual expertise comprises solely his adherence to the neocon ideology of all war all the time. He was on board for [George W.] Bush’s “remaking of the Middle East” to [Barack] Obama’s fake “Arab Spring to remake the Middle East” to [Donald] Trump’s “trash the Iran deal to remake the Middle East.”

The guy is a loser who has been wrong his whole career, with a trail of failures that would sink a normal person. But like the Energizer Bunny he just keeps on ticking and ticking toward yet another disaster.

As Politico goes on to note, the Hochstein/McGurk plan to urge Israeli attacks on Lebanon was not widely accepted among actual experts in the administration:

“The decision to focus on Hezbollah sparked division within the U.S. government, drawing opposition from people inside the Pentagon, State Department and intelligence community who believed Israel’s move against the Iran-backed militia could drag American forces into yet another Middle East conflict.”

Of course there is built into the Politico article the assumption that Hochstein and McGurk were at all concerned about “dragging American forces” into Israel’s regional war. In fact, their intent was the opposite. They no doubt yearned to draw the U.S. government into Israel’s regional war.

Which brings us to where we are today, with the Biden Administration committing more U.S. weapons systems and more U.S. military personnel to serve on the ground in Israel in its war against Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran. All at once. How’s that for neocon ambition?

As Pentagon Press Secretary Patrick Ryder announced [yesterday]: “At the direction of the President, @SecDef authorized the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery and associated crew of U.S. military personnel to Israel to help bolster Israel’s air defenses.”

With today’s [October 13] news that Lebanon successfully counter-attacked Israel—hitting an Israeli military base and taking out dozens of IDF soldiers—it appears certain that President Biden and his neocon-dominated foreign policy team are setting up U.S. military members to be killed in Israel to manufacture consent for a full-on US war against all of Israel’s enemies in the region.

They want American soldiers killed in Israel because they know the enormous propaganda value, particularly among a U.S. population that is increasingly against U.S. involvement in Israel’s wars and in favor of ending them instead.

With Kamala tanking in the eyes of a voting public increasingly unappetized by wilted word salads, an old-fashioned war might be just what the Biden brigades are cooking up to pull their chestnuts out of the fire.

With their track record of failure, it is time for those of us who are sane to be very, very worried.

This is going to get really bad really fast if we cannot get the attention of a slumbering—or worse—Congress.

October 14, 2024 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , , , | Leave a comment

Between Russia and Iran all is well that ends well

By M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | Indian Punchline | October 14, 2024 

 The mystery about the hastily-arranged ‘working meeting’ between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian at Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, on Friday has only deepened after the event. This was their first-ever meeting. Putin didn’t even have the post-event presser. 

Why such a meeting was considered necessary becomes an intriguing thought, as the two leaders are to meet in Kazan within days on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit on October 22-24. 

Russia and Iran have had a difficult relationship through centuries. It still remains complicated, as the protracted negotiations over their strategic partnership treaty show. They have serious conflict of interests, as the controversial idea of Zangezur Corridor makes plain.

The two countries are potential competitors in Europe’s energy market. Both are tough practitioners of strategic autonomy. And their partnership in a future multipolar post-American century will have too many imponderables for an overall prediction.  

At Ashgabat, Pezeshkian pointedly suggested to Putin that the signing of their proposed strategic treaty should be speeded up. Putin is known to have approved the draft agreement as far back as September 18. What is holding back the signing ceremony begs an explanation. Pezeshkian proposed that the ceremony could take place in Kazan. But the Russian side is dragging its feet. 

Such ambivalence is reminiscent of the inordinate delay some years ago in Russia’s transfer of S-300 mobile surface-to-air missile system to Iran even after Tehran had made payment for the system. In sheer exasperation, Iran filed a $4 billion lawsuit against Russia’s defence export agency and embarked on the manufacture of its own long-range, mobile air defence system, the Bavar-373.

Russia was known to have come under US-Israeli pressure. Geopolitical considerations continue to prevail in Russia’s arms transfers with Iran. Pezeshkian, after his return to Tehran disclosed to the media that he had told Putin that Russia should “act more effectively in relation to the crimes committed by the Zionist regime in Gaza and Lebanon.” 

Apparently, the tense exchange at Ashgabat provoked a frank remark later by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov to Tass, the state news agency. Ryabkov said: “We are closely and anxiously following the events [in the Israel-Iran standoff], the risk of a large-scale conflict is indeed high. The tendency to escalate into a full-scale conflict is a real danger. We call on all parties to exercise restraint. We are in intensive dialogue with the countries of the region. And once again — a major war can be avoided, but everyone must show restraint.” [Emphasis added.] 

Indeed, Moscow is pragmatically continuing with its ‘neutrality,’ which of course does not help Tehran. At the same time, Putin reportedly did not take a call recently from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu! Presumably, Russian-Israeli cogitations have gone underground. 

That is understandable, as Russia keenly monitors the trajectory of the US-Israeli relationship. The paradox is, while powerful strikes on Iran’s infrastructure is impossible without US help and any Israeli plan to attack Iran would require preliminary discussions with the Pentagon, the Biden Administration is hoping with bated breath that Netanyahu keeps it in the loop about planned military actions.

On the other hand, the US’ willingness to assist in planning an offensive against Iran is also iffy. Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper quoted a Russian analyst Vladimir Frolov last week who used to be an employee of the Russian Embassy in the US: “I think Biden and company do not want an escalation [with Iran.] Israel’s relations with Biden are irreparably damaged. Netanyahu is just lying to him… Netanyahu is waiting for Donald Trump.” 

That makes it twosome. Like the duo in the Samuel Beckett existential play Waiting for Godot, Putin and Netanyahu are waiting for Trump who may not even come at the end of the day. Committing one hundred percent to Iran, therefore, becomes problematic for the Kremlin. Then, there is the angst in Moscow about the intentions of the Pezeshkian government, which has prioritised the resumption of negotiations with the West. 

Tehran noted carefully last week that the US officials went out of the way to affirm that despite tensions with Israel, Tehran is not ‘upgrading’ its nuclear doctrine. A spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) in Washington added to the public remarks earlier in the week by CIA Director William Burns, who said the US had not seen any evidence of Iran’s Supreme Leader reversing his 2003 decision to suspend the [alleged] weaponisation programme. 

Interestingly, Nournews, which is identified with the establishment, commented that the US intelligence assessment “could help explain the US opposition to any Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program in retaliation” — put differently, the US could still be keeping an eye on future nuclear negotiations with Iran. 

At the Ashgabat meeting, Pezeshkian told Putin that Iran and Russia have good mutual and complementary potentials and can help each other. Pezeshkian stressed that Iran’s ties with Russia are “sincere and strategic.” He added, “Our positions on global matters are much closer to each other than to those of many other countries.” 

According to the Kremlin transcript, Putin told Pezeshkian, “Our relationship with Iran is a priority for us, and it is developing very successfully… We are actively cooperating on the international arena, and often share close or even converging assessments of the ongoing developments.” 

However, on his part, Pezeshkian remarked that “we must ensure that our relations improve and become stronger moving forward. We have many opportunities to achieve this objective, and it is our duty to assist one another in these efforts. We share similar visions, and there are many similarities in terms of our respective international standing.” 

When it comes to the Ukraine conflict, Tehran’s stance is similar to India’s approach. Interestingly, in a post on X in the weekend, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi wrote that in his recent interactions in New York with top EU officials, he categorically told them “Iran-Russia military cooperation is not new; it has a history, long before the Ukrainian crisis began… I clearly said, and reiterate once again: we’ve NOT provided ballistic missiles to Russia. If Europe needs a case to appease Israel’s blackmail, better find another story.”

At the Ashgabat meeting, neither Putin nor Pezeshkian claimed a strategic convergence in their respective foreign policies. Pezeshkian, nonetheless, assured Putin that he looks forward to attending the upcoming BRICS summit and “we will do everything needed to approve and sign the documents on its agenda.”

October 14, 2024 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism | , , , , | Leave a comment

The Arabs are transparently displaying their crossover to multi-alignment in a US-led Middle Eastern war

By M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | Indian Punchline | October 12, 2024 

Reuters reported on Friday quoting three sources in the Persian Gulf that the regional states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iran’s oil sites as “part of their attempts to avoid being caught in the crossfire.” The exclusive Reuters report singled out Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar as also refusing to let Israel fly over their airspace for any attack on Iran. 

These moves come after a diplomatic push by Iran to persuade its Sunni Gulf neighbours to use their influence with Washington. Saudi Arabia has drawn the bottom line to the Biden Administration that it is determined to pursue the track of normalisation with Iran that began with the rapprochement brokered by China in March 2023. This affirmation, well into the Iranian-Saudi détente’s second year, puts paid to any residual hope that Arab states may eventually join a ‘coalition of the willing’ against Iran. 

The big picture here is that the Gulf states are positioning themselves to be among the key contributors to the ongoing power diffusion in their region — and globally. Tehran and Riyadh have found ways to responsibly share the neighbourhood. Suffice to say, the Arab world is already in the post-US and post-West era.

Now, this also signals Riyadh’s unease about Israel continuing its war on Gaza and Saudi frustration with the US for refusing to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government into accepting a ceasefire. 

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was in Riyadh on Wednesday and was received by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The Saudi readout said they discussed bilateral relations and regional developments as well as the “efforts exerted towards them.” The meeting was attended by Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah and Minister of State and National Security Advisor Dr. Musaed bin Mohammed Al-Aiban. 

Araqchi also held talks with Prince Faisal. “Discussions focused on relations and explored ways to strengthen them across various fields,” the Saudi report said. Only the previous day, Prince Khalid had spoken with his American counterpart Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. 

The Saudi Press Agency reported Tuesday that the two defence ministers “discussed the latest regional and international developments, efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region, and ways to ensure regional security and stability.” 

Clearly, the Saudis are on the ball, quite aware that they can assume a pivotal role in restoring calm and preventing the spillover of the conflict into the region. The ground beneath the Israel-Iran standoff is shifting in systemic terms. 

The military implications are profound when the Gulf States close their airspace to Israel (and the US) for operations against Iran. The Israeli jets will now have to take a circuitous route via the Red Sea and circumvent Arabian Peninsula to approach Iranian airspace, which of course will necessitate mid-air refuelling and all that it entails in such a sensitive operation that may have to be undertaken repeatedly. In a ‘missile war,’ Iran may prevail.   

How far the coordinated move by the Persian Gulf States to get the US to de-escalate the situation will work remains to be seen, as it depends largely on Netanyahu mellowing, of which there are no signs. Nonetheless, President Joe Biden did his part by calling Netanyahu on Wednesday. But the White House readout neatly sidestepped the main talking point between them. 

It stands to reason, though, that the call from Biden did have some effect on Netanyahu. The New York Times reported that Israel’s security cabinet convened on Thursday during which Netanyahu discussed with senior ministers “the overall plan for Israel’s retaliation.” 

The results of the meeting were not released. And Times concluded its report by taking note that “analysts still say neither side appears interested in all-out war.” Indeed, the Gulf states’ anxiety has become a key talking point between the US officials and Israeli counterparts. 

After the call from Biden, Netanyahu asked Defence Minister Gallant who was scheduled to visit Washington to stand down. Meanwhile, the US Central Command chief General Michael Kurilla came to Israel for “a situational assessment.” Lloyd Austin followed through on Thursday with a call to with Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant but the focus was on Lebanon. No doubt, the Biden administration is pulling many strings in Tel Aviv. 

Netanyahu is known to be a realist himself. The point is, Tehran is explicit that Tel Aviv will pay a heavy price for any further hostile action. The warning will be taken seriously as Israeli military and intelligence — indeed, Netanyahu himself — have just had a preview of Iran’s deterrent capability. 

Second, the price of oil has already begun going up and that is something Candidate Kamala Harris wouldn’t want to see happening. 

Third, as for nuclear facilities, Iran has dispersed them to all parts of the country and the critical infrastructure is buried deep in the bowels of mountains that are hard to reach. 

To be sure, Iran’s missile strike on October 1 carried also showed that it has superb intelligence to know what to target, where and when. In a tiny country like Israel, it is difficult to hide — although Tehran may not stoop so low as to decapitate opponents. 

Suffice to say, all things taken into account, a terrible beauty is born in the Middle East: How far will the US go to rescue Israel? 

The beginning of an alignment of the Arab states, as evident this week, refusing to be part of any form of attack on Iran and the signs of ‘Islamic solidarity’ bridging sectarian divides — these are, quintessentially, to be seen as tipping points. This is the first thing. 

Secondly, this isn’t going to be a short, crisp war. Colonel Doug Macgregor, an astute US combat veteran in the Gulf War and former advisor to the Pentagon during the Trump administration and a noted military historian, aptly drew the analogy of the Thirty Years’ War in Europe (1618-1648), which began as a battle among the Catholic and Protestant states that formed the Holy Roman Empire but evolved in time and became less about religion and turned into a political struggle, more about which group would ultimately govern Europe, and ultimately changing the geopolitical face of Europe. 

To quote from a 2017 essay by Pascal Daudin, an ICRC veteran who was deployed in major conflict situations such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Central Asia, Caucasus, Saudi Arabia and the Balkans, the Thirty Years’ War turned into “a complex, protracted conflict between many different parties –- known in modern parlance as State and non-State actors. In practice, it was a series of separate yet connected international and internal conflicts waged by regular and irregular military forces, partisan groups, private armies and conscripts.” (here)

True, a Middle Eastern War in the current setting already has combatants, bystanders and onlookers who, as the conflict evolves into a latter-day Crusade, are bound to jump in — such as Turkey and Egypt. 

It will most certainly exhaust Israel — and vanquish the US presence in the Middle East — although a protracted war may prompt an intellectual upheaval that would ultimately bring about the Enlightenment to the region, as the Thirty Years’ War did to Europe. 

October 12, 2024 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Iran condemns strike on makeshift hospital on Syria-Lebanon border

Press TV – October 11, 2024

Iran has strongly condemned Israel’s strike on a medical facility on the Syria-Lebanon border, calling it “a clear example of war crimes.”

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Thursday that frequent Israeli attacks on hospitals and other medical facilities in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria show the regime’s disregard for all international rules and regulations.

Baghaei called for unequivocal condemnation of Israel’s attack by all relevant international bodies, including the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).

He also highlighted the need for global action to help thousands of Lebanese people who have been displaced in the past two weeks following Israel’s aggression against Lebanon.

The Israeli strike on Iran’s 56-bed field hospital on Wednesday destroyed ambulances and all medical equipment inside the facility.

The hospital was established to aid Lebanese displaced people on the Syrian-Lebanese border.

The hospital housed food supplies, medical equipment, and medicines.

The hospital was clearly marked with the flag and symbols of the Red Crescent. The ambulances, the field hospital, and all the hospital’s supplies were destroyed in the attack by Israel.

Since the start of the offensive on October 7 last year Israeli occupation forces have particularly targeted Gaza’s education and health sectors. It has bombed most of the hospitals, schools, colleges and universities.

Hundreds of educational institutions, including 65 run by the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA), were also bombed and vandalized.

Despite the UN Security Council demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the Israeli regime continues its genocidal war against the Palestinian people trapped in the besieged Gaza Strip, aiming for the complete eradication of its people.

October 11, 2024 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, War Crimes | , , , , | Leave a comment

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