Why NATO’s Plan to Conscript Ukraine’s Youth Will Likely Fail
By Professor Glenn Diesen | January 14, 2025
NATO continues to pressure Ukraine to lower its conscription age to 18 as the huge casualties by Ukraine have resulted in a lack of manpower. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is pressuring Ukraine into “getting younger people into the fight”, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has been more cautious in his language by arguing “We need probably more people to move to the front line”.[1] The incoming Trump administration also appears to take the same line, as Trump’s National Security Advisor Mike Walz argued that lowering the conscription age could “generate hundreds of thousands of new soldiers”.[2]
While there is seemingly bipartisan support in the US for sacrificing Ukraine’s youth, the plan is deeply flawed. The Ukrainians are overwhelmingly in favour of immediate negotiations, the Ukrainian government resists the pressure from NATO, and there is very little chance that the new recruits will significantly improve the situation.
Bring Russia to the negotiation table & negotiate from a position of strength
NATO’s argument is seemingly reasonable: More Ukrainian soldiers are necessary to pressure Russia to the negotiation table and to negotiate from a position of strength.
The need to pressure Russia to the negotiation table is based on lies, as Russia has been open to negotiations over the past three years. NATO has rejected negotiations and even basic diplomacy with Russia for three years that may have prevented escalation and possibly led to peace. Russia contacted Ukraine already on the first day after the Russian invasion, to negotiate a peace agreement based on putting an end to NATO expansion. President Zelensky confirmed on 25 February 2022: “Today we heard from Moscow that they still want to talk. They want to talk about Ukraine’s neutral status”.[3] The US and UK sabotaged the Istanbul peace agreement to pursue a long war. In March 2022, Zelensky confirmed in an interview with the Economist: “There are those in the West who don’t mind a long war because it would mean exhausting Russia, even if this means the demise of Ukraine and comes at the cost of Ukrainian lives”.[4] By rejecting any diplomacy and negotiations, NATO made it a war of attrition as Russia was left with the dilemma of either continuing the fight or capitulating.
The need to negotiate from a position of strength is a reasonable objective, yet there are reasons to doubt NATO’s sincerity. Is NATO attempting to strengthen Ukraine’s position in negotiations or to keep the war going? On 27 February 2022, the same day that Russia and Ukraine announced peace talks, the EU approved 450 million Euros in military aid to Ukraine, which reduced the incentives for Kiev to negotiate with Moscow.[5] The consistent argument has been that Ukraine must negotiate from a position of strength, yet it has been three years of intensive war and NATO countries still react with panic as Trump prepares to start negotiations to end the war.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, recognised in November 2022 that the Ukrainians were in an ideal situation to start negotiations after successes on the battlefield. Milley recognised that a military victory was impossible to achieve and that this was therefore the optimal time to negotiate.[6] Fearing that its long war would end, the Biden administration quickly intervened and Milley had to walk back his comments.
What will NATO and Ukraine achieve with their strengthened position at the negotiation table? Russia considers NATO’s incursion into Ukraine to be an existential threat and will not accept any peace agreement that does not result in restoring Ukraine’s neutrality. Both the Israeli and Turkish mediators during the peace negotiations in 2022 recognised that Russia was prepared to compromise on anything, besides the issue of NATO expansion. NATO’s continuous promise of membership for Ukraine in the military bloc after the war is over has made a peaceful settlement impossible and thus cemented the conditions for a long war. Strengthening Ukraine’s army will not soften Russia’s position.
What is the likely outcome?
Forcing hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainians into the army will undoubtedly slow down the Russian advances, although it cannot stop or reverse the Russian military. The Ukrainian army has been exhausted, and a new army cannot simply be built from scratch. The losses on the battlefield and lies from their government have diminished morale, which will not be improved by sending less experienced young men into a battlefield dominated by Russia.
Trump will likely be able to pressure Zelensky to lower the conscription age, yet this will be incredibly unpopular among the Ukrainian population. The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians want negotiations to start immediately, not to sacrifice their youth in a lost war. Newsweek reports that “Over 6 million Ukrainians of conscription age haven’t complied with legislation introduced last year to boost dwindling troop numbers fighting Russia”. The public wants an end to the war, not to send their teenagers to die.
Conscription of Ukraine’s youth will cause great social upheaval in a society that is already fed up with watching their men being snatched from the streets and thrown into vans by “recruiters”. These young men are also important for the workforce to keep the economy going, which will be lost if they are conscripted or go into hiding. Once the war is finally over, these young men are indispensable to rebuilding Ukraine which is already facing a demographic crisis.
Ukraine cannot survive more “help”
Between 1991 and 2014, the US attempted to help Ukraine into NATO despite that only 20% of Ukrainians desired membership in the military alliance during this time. In 2014, NATO helped Ukrainians topple their government in an unconstitutional coup without majority support from Ukrainians. Rather than implementing the Minsk peace agreement, NATO helped Ukraine build a large army so it could instead change realities on the ground. When 73% of Ukrainians voted for Zelensky’s peace platform in 2019, NATO helped Ukraine avoid “capitulation” by pressuring Zelensky to reverse his position. In 2021, NATO helped Ukraine by refusing to give any security guarantees to Russia, even as Biden and Stoltenberg recognised that Russia would invade without security guarantees. In 2022, the US and UK helped Ukraine by pressuring Kiev to abandon a peace agreement in which the Russians committed to pulling troops back in return for neutrality. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed, large parts of its territory have been lost and the nation may not survive – NATO is now attempting to help yet again by pressuring war-weary Ukrainians to also sacrifice their youth. Irrespective of any new soldiers entering the war, the position of Ukraine will only continue to get worse.
If NATO really wants to help Ukraine and strengthen its position at the negotiation table, NATO should offer Russia what it wants the most – a pan-European security agreement based on indivisible security that replaces the zero-sum bloc politics. This is the best option for the West, Russia and Ukraine.
[1] A. Medhani, ‘White House pressing Ukraine to draft 18-year-olds so it has enough troops to battle Russia’, AP News, 28 November 2024.
[2] B. Gaddy, ‘Rep. Waltz: Negotiations to release Hamas hostages are underway’, ABC News, 12 January 2025
[3] V. Zelensky, ‘Address by the President to Ukrainians at the end of the first day of Russia’s attacks’, President of Ukraine: Official website, 25 February 2022.
[4] The Economist. ‘Volodymyr Zelensky on why Ukraine must defeat Putin’ The Economist, 27 March 2022.
[5] J. Deutsch and L. Pronina, ‘EU Approves 450 Million Euros of Arms Supplies for Ukraine’, Bloomberg, 27 February 2022.
[6] O. Libermann, ‘Top US general argues Ukraine may be in a position of strength to negotiate Russian withdrawal’, CNN, 16 November 2022.
Ukraine attempted drone strike on Russian gas supply to NATO states – Moscow
RT | January 13, 2025
Ukraine has launched an unsuccessful drone attack on Russian energy infrastructure which delivers natural gas to Türkiye , the Defense Ministry in Moscow reported on Monday.
The attempted sabotage took place on Saturday and involved nine kamikaze drones, which Ukrainian forces launched at the Russkaya gas compressor station near the village of Gaikodzor in Russia’s Krasnodar Region, according to a statement from the ministry.
The site is crucial for the operation of the TurkStream pipeline, which delivers natural gas from Russia to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Several nations in southern Europe, including EU member Hungary, use the Turkish route to receive supplies. Kiev’s attack was “aimed at stopping the supply of gas to European nations” through the neutral intermediary, the Russian Defense Ministry stated.
The Ukrainian attack against the Russkaya station was largely thwarted, the military added. One fixed-wing drone crashed close to a gas meter and caused minor damage, which was swiftly fixed by the facility’s personnel, it said. The incident caused no interruption in supplies, the statement stressed.
Kiev has refused to renew a transit contract with Russia which expired at the start of this year, and which had involved Russian gas being supplied to EU countries through Ukrainian territory. Slovakia, one of the nations affected by the decision, has accused Ukraine of causing an energy crisis.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has described Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky as someone who “roams Europe begging and blackmailing” Western nations in the hope of extracting more military assistance to fight Russia.
Zelensky previously accused Fico of striking “shady deals” with Moscow and of undermining the EU’s “unity” in the confrontation with Russia. He also claimed the Slovak secret services should investigate Fico for corruption.
The TurkStream pipeline was launched in January 2020 and has an annual capacity of 31.5 billion cubic meters. Its underwater section extends for around 930km, while the Russkaya station serves as the point of exit on Russian soil. One of the pipeline’s two strings serves Turkish customers, while the other leads to consumers in Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Greece. Russian officials have accused Kiev of attempts to sabotage the energy link on multiple occasions in recent years.
Hungary brands attempted strike on Russian gas pipeline an attack on its sovereignty
RT | January 13, 2025
Budapest considers any attempts to sabotage its energy supply as undermining its national sovereignty, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Monday, reacting to reports from Russia that Kiev had tried to disable the TurkStream pipeline with kamikaze drones.
According to the Russian military, Kiev used nine unmanned aircraft to target the Russkaya gas compressor station near the village of Gaikodzor in Russia’s Krasnodar Region last Saturday. The facility pumps natural gas under the Black Sea to Türkiye. Some of the fuel then goes to consumers in the EU.
The pipeline “is indispensable for the supply of natural gas” to Hungary and has been operating reliably for years, Szijjarto stated in a post on Facebook on Monday.
“We expect everyone to respect the safety and operability of this transport route,” he added.
Hungary’s relationship with Ukraine has become strained, as Budapest opposed Kiev’s demands for increasing military assistance in its conflict against Russia. The Hungarian government went against the predominant policy in the West, which called for Kiev to be supported for “as long as it takes” to defeat Moscow.
The approach has failed to alter the course of the Ukraine conflict, Budapest has pointed out. However, EU member states have inflicted economic damage on themselves by trying to punish Moscow with sanctions, as they lost access to the Russian market and the country’s raw materials.
Last year, Kiev refused to renew a multiyear contract with Russia, which allowed the transit of gas through its territory to Eastern Europe. Consumer nations criticized the decision, accusing the Ukrainian government of causing an energy crisis for its political goals.
“Ukraine is trying to join the EU as a candidate, it has once again put the European economy in a more difficult position with its latest decision,” Szijjarto said last week, commenting on the situation.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has said it is willing to take Hungary’s place in the EU, accusing Budapest of “strengthening” Russia with its policies.
Swiss People’s Party Demands Resignation: Defense Minister Under Fire for Security Policy Failures
Sputnik – 12.01.2025
According to the Swiss People’s Party (SVP), Switzerland is incapable of guaranteeing internal and external security because of its arms deliveries to Ukraine and its rapprochement with NATO.
The Swiss People’s Party, Switzerland’s largest political force, has called on the head of the country’s Defense Ministry, Viola Amherd, to resign over her failed security policy.
“The fact that Switzerland can no longer guarantee its internal and external security is the result of political mistakes – and a consequence of wrong appointments,” a statement read.
Viola Amherd is also blamed for the country’s rapprochement with NATO.
“Those who are gradually tying Switzerland to NATO are accepting that young Swiss are dying abroad and that Switzerland is being dragged into foreign conflicts,” the Swiss People’s Party said.
According to the SVP, Amherd prefers to deal with gender issues in the armed forces rather than military equipment.
“She allows weapons ordered for Switzerland to be delivered to Ukraine. These are the wrong priorities, Federal Councillor,” the SVP said in a statement.
In late October 2024, Amherd said that Bern should ease restrictions on the re-export of Swiss weapons because of the country’s arms business. She cited the fact that the Netherlands had already decided to stop buying weapons from the nation because of the current ban on re-exports, and that Germany could follow suit.
Russia believes that arms supplies to Ukraine hinder a settlement and directly involve NATO countries in the conflict. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted that any cargo containing weapons for Ukraine would be a legitimate target for Russia. According to Lavrov, the United States and NATO are directly involved in the conflict, not only by supplying weapons, but also by training personnel in the UK, Germany, Italy, and other countries. The Kremlin stated that the West pumping Ukraine with weapons does not contribute to negotiations and would have a negative effect.
Slovakia faces energy crisis by next winter after Ukraine shut off Russian gas, president warns
By Thomas Brooke | Remix News | January 10, 2025
Slovakia faces a looming energy crisis next winter unless an alternative method of gas importation is established, following the cessation of supplies through Ukraine, Slovak President Peter Pellegrini warned on Friday.
Speaking in the village of Nemecká, Pellegrini highlighted the gravity of the situation and called for urgent solutions to secure the nation’s energy stability.
While gas supplies for this winter are stable in terms of price and capacity, Pellegrini emphasized the underlying vulnerabilities. “We are currently consuming more gas than we are receiving, relying heavily on reservoirs filled to maximum capacity earlier this year,” he said. However, the president expressed concern that these reserves would not suffice for the next heating season if the supply deficit is not addressed.
The gas supply disruption stems from Ukraine’s decision on Jan. 1 to halt the transit of Russian gas to Slovakia. Kyiv justified the move as a measure to cut off revenue that could support Russia’s ongoing war effort, asserting that alternative suppliers had been made available and supplies to the European Union had been maintained. The move has enraged some member states heavily reliant on the gas route.
Pellegrini lamented the failure to reach a compromise with Ukraine, saying, “I regret that an agreement could not be found. Ukraine’s decision to shut off the gas has exposed Slovakia to a serious challenge in the coming months.”
The Slovak president revealed the challenges of importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from other countries, citing limited capacity at European terminals. “The import of LNG runs into significant bottlenecks in northern and southern Europe. These terminals cannot fully replace the current shortfall,” he noted, stressing the urgency of finding alternative sources to make up for the lost capacity.
Prime Minister Robert Fico, speaking after discussions with EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen on Thursday, hinted at retaliatory measures should the situation persist. Fico suggested that Slovakia might cut off aid to Ukraine and use its veto in the European Council to block further EU support for Ukraine’s war effort.
“There is nothing — neither international law nor sanctions — that prevents the transit of gas through Ukraine,” Fico stated in Brussels. He also warned of the broader implications for the European Union, noting that rising energy prices could undermine the bloc’s competitiveness. “If the damage to the EU and Slovakia becomes permanent, we will take reciprocal measures,” he added.
Slovakia threatens to block Ukraine aid over gas transit dispute – media
RT | January 10, 2025
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has warned that Bratislava may block the European Union’s financial and humanitarian aid to Kiev if the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine is not resolved, Reuters has reported. Fico made the statement after talks with EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen on Thursday.
Fico cited potential losses from the blocked transit as the reason for his threat.
“There is nothing – not international law or sanctions – that prevents the transit of gas through Ukraine,” Fico told reporters in Brussels, as quoted by Reuters.
Slovakia has seen the complete cessation of Russian gas flows via Ukraine, a route that previously provided Bratislava with significant transit fees and also provided the gas for its domestic consumption.
According to Fico, Slovakia stands to lose $515 million annually in transit fees and could face an additional $1 billion in increased gas prices due to the disruption.
“If this problem is not resolved, the government of the Slovak Republic will take strict reciprocal measures in the near future,” Fico said.
The prime minister outlined potential retaliatory measures, including exercising Slovakia’s veto power within the European Union on Ukraine-related issues.
He also threatened to suspend humanitarian aid to Ukraine, scaling back support for Ukrainian refugees in Slovakia, and halting emergency electricity supplies to the country.
Fico’s remarks follow recent discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, during which the Slovak leader secured assurances of direct gas supplies to Slovakia despite the transit halt.
A meeting initially scheduled between Slovak, Ukrainian, and European Commission officials to address the gas transit issue was canceled after Ukraine declined to participate. Slovakia and the European Commission have since agreed to form a working group to assess the crisis and explore potential EU interventions.
Ukraine has not yet publicly responded to Fico’s latest statements. When the Slovak PM first threatened to cut off electricity to Kiev last month, Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko said he didn’t think that Bratislava would go through with the threat.
Slovakia, which has a contract with Russia’s Gazprom, requires between 4 billion and 5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually to meet its energy needs. Prior to the transit halt, it had been receiving around 3 billion bcm from Russia through Ukraine. In response to the disruption, SPP, Slovakia’s state-owned gas company, is now sourcing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from international suppliers, including BP, ExxonMobil, Shell, Eni, and RWE.
NATO pledges $2 billion in military aid for Ukraine at Ramstein meeting
By Ahmed Adel | January 10, 2025
Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said in Germany that participants in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group had approved a plan for eight areas of military cooperation with Kiev until 2027. Austin’s announcement was followed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s claim that he had secured an additional $2 billion in military assistance to help continue the futile war effort against Russia.
As Zelensky said after the meeting in Ramstein, home to a NATO Airpower headquarters, 34 countries had pledged support in different aspects to continue the 34-month-old war, including covered air defence, information technology, demining, naval forces, air forces and artillery.
“We had a very good meeting, a very good result. There was $2 billion in additional packages of support to Ukraine,” he said in a video posted on the Telegram account. “Earlier today, a meeting of the coalition leaders’ group was held with the participation of representatives of 15 countries. They approved a plan for ‘coalitions of opportunity’ until 2027. This way, partner countries can continue to provide assistance to Ukraine on the battlefield.”
As revealed in a joint statement released by the Pentagon ahead of the Ramstein meeting, the Western allies and Kiev intended to define how to meet Ukraine’s goals and military needs in the short and long term through contributions, procurement, investments, and efforts to expand defence capabilities.
In this regard, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated ahead of the session’s start that the Atlantic Alliance should do everything in its power to allow Ukraine to continue fighting.
“We need to do everything possible to make sure that Ukraine has what it needs, in terms of training and equipment, to prevail in this fight,” Rutte stressed.
According to him, it is also important to demonstrate at the session the involvement of all NATO countries in providing support to Kiev.
“The global context is that we have to bring Ukraine in the best possible position. That one day, when talks would start, at the initiative of Ukraine, on how to resolve this conflict, that they are in the best possible position to do that. And then when these talks end, it will be looked at, in a sense, whether there’s a good deal or not […] The whole world is watching. So, we have to make sure that Ukraine is in the best possible position. And we should not forget that there is this geopolitical context at stake here,” said the NATO Secretary General.
For his part, Zelensky, during his address at the session, asked the allies for air defence systems and the deployment of a Western military contingent.
“Last year, France came up with the idea of deploying a contingent of partners in Ukraine to bring peace closer […] That is why our goal is to find as many instruments as possible to force Russia to peace. I believe that such a deployment of partners’ contingents is one of the best instruments. Let’s be more practical in making this possible,” he said.
According to him, representatives of Great Britain have also spoken out in favour of deploying a foreign contingent in Ukraine. Zelensky did not mention any specific names or positions.
It is recalled that on February 26, 2024, after an international meeting on support for Ukraine held in Paris, Macron said he did not rule out the possibility of European troops being deployed in Ukraine. Then, three days later, during the grand opening of the Olympic Village, Macron emphasized that his position on the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine was balanced and well-thought-out. Nonetheless, nearly a year later, nothing has progressed from Macron’s suggestion, and it is unlikely that the British will act alone or convince partners to embark on such a reckless initiative.
Although Zelensky urged his Western allies to “not to drop the ball” and to continue providing long-term military support to his embattled country, he acknowledged that “a new chapter starts for Europe” once Donald Trump returns to the White House on January 20.
Zelensky securing only $2 billion in military aid once again demonstrates how Western support for Ukraine is waning, despite the rhetoric at the Ramstein meeting of supporting the country until victory over Russia is achieved.
Realistically, $2 billion will make absolutely no difference to Ukraine’s war effort, especially as Russia continues its slow but methodical advance across the front, with Ukrainian forces unable to mount any serious defence, making the whole meeting at Ramstein nothing more than performative that has achieved nothing substantial.
Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.
Scholz’s Cabinet Blocks $3 Billion Urgent Aid Package to Ukraine – Reports
Sputnik – 10.01.2025
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s cabinet is blocking the provision of additional military aid to Ukraine, a move backed by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, the Spiegel newspaper reported.
Baerbock and Pistorius, of the Green Party and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), respectively, reportedly want to mobilize 3 billion euros ($3.09 billion) in emergency aid for Ukraine before parliamentary elections scheduled for February 23. Scholz’s office, however, is blocking the plan, the newspaper said.
It added that the foreign and defense ministries intend to ask the German parliament’s budget committee for additional funds because the planned budget does not include money for Kiev’s urgent needs and because of the uncertainty surrounding the incoming US administration’s Ukraine policy.
Scholz’s cabinet, in turn, explains its veto of the plan with the unwillingness to present the government that will be formed after the elections with an already decided fact, the newspaper said.
Another possible motive behind the Chancellor’s stance could be the fear of scaring the SDP voters with another expensive aid package.
In late December, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said he had decided to dissolve the Bundestag and call early elections for February 23.
Scholz suggested Steinmeier dissolve parliament after a majority of lawmakers supported a no-confidence vote in his government on Dec. 16. Of the 717 lawmakers who took part in the vote, 394 voted against Scholz as chancellor, while 207 voted in favor and 116 abstained. A minimum of 367 votes in favor or against was required for a vote of confidence or withdrawal of confidence.
Russia has said that the West’s arms deliveries to Ukraine hinder the settlement of the conflict and directly involve NATO countries in the conflict. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that any cargo containing weapons for Ukraine would be a legitimate target for Russia.
Ukraine offers to replace Hungary in EU
RT | January 9, 2025
Ukraine is ready to take Hungary’s place in the European Union, the Foreign Ministry in Kiev said on Wednesday. Budapest recently blasted Ukraine for blocking the transit of natural gas from Russia to the European Union.
Earlier this week, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto accused Kiev of creating “artificially reduced supply,” emphasizing that its unilateral decision to stop the transit of Russian gas, coupled with EU sanctions, had sent prices soaring.
“If the Hungarian side prioritizes strengthening of Russia instead of the EU and the US, it should openly admit it,” the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. “Ukraine will be ready to fill any vacant seat in the EU and NATO, if Hungary decides to vacate it in favor of membership in the CIS or the CSTO.”
The CIS, short for the Commonwealth of Independent States, is a bloc uniting several post-Soviet countries. The CSTO, or Collective Security Treaty Organization, is a military alliance that currently includes Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Ukraine chose not to prolong a five-year transit contract with Russia’s Gazprom at the end of 2024, cutting off several EU member states from Russian gas supplies, including Romania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Italy, and Moldova. The halt immediately sent prices in the region soaring to more than €50 per megawatt hour, a level unseen since October 2023.
Hungary’s Szijjarto stated that the higher prices undermine the EU’s competitiveness and disproportionately burden citizens of the bloc. The minister further alleged that Ukraine had breached its EU Association Agreement by halting transit shipments.
Kiev’s decision has also been slammed by Slovakia, which relies on Russian pipelines for about 60% of its energy needs. Last week, Slovak Interior Minister Matus Sutaj Estok characterized the move as a “betrayal of trust” and a threat to energy stability in the region.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said earlier this month that the US was the only beneficiary of the situation, charging that Washington is the “main sponsor of the Ukrainian crisis.”
Moscow was willing to prolong the transit contract and maintain gas shipments through Ukrainian territory beyond 2024. President Vladimir Putin accused Kiev of “punishing” EU member states with its decision, predicting that it would result in higher energy prices. During his annual press conference on December 19, he said the halt would have minimal impact on Russia, however.

