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It is Ground Hog Day in the Strait of Hormuz… Again!

By Larry C. Johnson | SONAR21 | July 12, 2026 

It has been a busy week with the US making a full-break with the MoU, and it centered on the language in paragraph five of the MoU:

Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa.

Did not say one thing about the US or Oman or any other country bordering the Persian Gulf… Only Iran. In accordance with this language Iran established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) protocols, which delineated how ships could pass safely thru the Strait. Instead of accepting this, the US engaged in a series of provocations designed to challenge Iran’s authority. On July 6–7, Iran struck at least three commercial vessels in/near the Strait of Hormuz (e.g., Marshall Islands-flagged M/T Al Rekayyat, Saudi M/T Wedyan, Liberian M/T Cyprus Prosperity) who tried to circumvent the PGSA protocols. The United States claimed this was a violation of the ceasefire — it was not — and proceeded to launch attacks on Iranian positions along the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by launching attacks on US targets in Kuwait and Bahrain.

The tit-for-tat exchange continued through Thursday, following Iran interdicting additional wayward ships and the US hitting targets in and around Bandar Abbas and Qemsh Island. There was no activity on Friday, but Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran: i.e., Declare the Strait of Hormuz open and stop using force against ships that violate Iran’s PGSA protocol. When I heard that I predicted that the US would attack within 24 hours… And that is what happened. Some more ships connected to Western interests tried to breach the Strait and Iran hit them. The US responded, once again, with strikes that reportedly included ATACM and HIMARS missiles.

As I write this Iran has launched missiles at Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar (i.e., Al Udeid AFB) and Jordan’s Muwaffaq al Salti airbase. So what will happen next? If the past is any guide Trump is likely to issue a statement on Sunday, or early Monday morning, designed to calm the financial markets and halt the spike in the price of oil. While I cannot rule out that this current exchange could escalate and continue for several days, let me remind you of what has happened since April 7, 2026.

Working through the post-April 7 timeline day by day, the strict pattern — US strikes on Iranian sites Friday/Saturday, followed by a Trump progress-in-talks statement Sunday or early Monday — shows up twice cleanly, with three more near-fits. In other words, this may be deja vu all over again — a quote attributed to Yogi Berra. Here are the details:

May 23–24 (Sat–Sun): Trump declared on Saturday May 23 that the agreement was “largely negotiated,” repeating it May 24 — explicitly “despite ongoing U.S. military strikes in the area”. Progress statement on the weekend amid active strikes.

May 30–31 → Monday, June 1. CENTCOM confirmed strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites at Goruk and on Qeshm Island carried out Saturday and Sunday, in response to the shootdown of a US MQ-1 over international waters. Then on Monday June 1, with Iranian state media saying talks were suspended, Trump contradicted this and said talks were continuing at a “rapid pace,” touting a “very productive call” that day.

June 13–14: The memorandum to end the war was announced on Sunday, June 14. The preceding days featured what mediators called a “tit-for-tat situation” with “volleys of strikes”, though Trump had announced Thursday June 11 that he was canceling scheduled strikes.

June 20–22: Iran declared Hormuz re-closed Saturday June 20, Trump threatened to “take over” the strait, then Sunday-overnight talks in Switzerland concluded “constructively” with a Monday joint statement praising the “positive and constructive atmosphere”. Here the weekend kinetics were mostly Iranian/Israeli.

June 26–28 → Monday, June 29. The US struck Iranian military targets over the weekend in response to Tehran’s attacks on shipping, with hostilities running a fourth consecutive day by Sunday, June 28 (Friday June 26 and Saturday June 27 both saw exchanges). On Sunday a senior US official said technical talks were “on track” and both sides would “stand down,” and on Monday, June 29, Trump posted “IRAN HAS REQUESTED A MEETING. IT WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW IN DOHA!” — with Rubio and Witkoff briefing Congress on an initial peace deal that same Monday. Notably, Trump had spent Saturday threatening that Iran “will no longer exist” before pivoting to the Monday talks announcement. The talks did not take place.

It is now early morning on the East coast and the Iranian response to the US attacks continues. The ball is now in Trump’s corner… once again. If he chooses to respond with force to the Iranian attacks, Iran will launch even more attacks. Despite Trump’s belligerent threats, the US cannot afford to return to a full-scale military operation. Stocks of key US weapons, which include Tomahawk and JASSM missiles, are running low and cannot be quickly replaced because the US lacks the industrial scale and is crippled by supply chain shortages of rare earth minerals.

Interview with Sulaiman Ahmed who is alive and well in Tehran.

July 12, 2026 - Posted by | Wars for Israel | , ,

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