US-Israeli war on Iran cost Persian Gulf states nearly $1T in damage, lost growth: Report
The Cradle | November 11, 2026
The US-Israeli war on Iran has cost Persian Gulf states more than $200 billion in physical damage and will erase $790 billion in expected growth by 2030, according to a report by insurance firm Allianz Trade published on 9 November.
“Physical damage across the region is assessed just above $200bn, mostly concentrated in Hormuz-locked economies, especially in energy infrastructure,” the report states.
Iran’s retaliatory strikes on US assets also hit host-country airports, seaports, landmarks and more than 80 energy facilities—mostly in Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. About a third of the facilities were heavily damaged.
Tourism and real estate have also taken a hit, and the report expects both sectors to grow more slowly in the years ahead.
The report says the $790 billion is the output Gulf economies are expected to lose from 2026 to 2030 compared with pre-war growth forecasts—equivalent to 5.9 percent of GDP over the five-year period.
Gulf states are expected to offset some of the losses by redirecting about $120 billion from their sovereign wealth funds into domestic investments through 2030, leaving less money to invest abroad.
Surplus earnings generated from their trade and overseas holdings are expected to fall by half.
Gulf spending has also been forced to shift away from mega-projects toward resilience and security, and domestic infrastructure and defense outlays are set to reach $380–400 billion by 2030, opening up roughly $160 billion in opportunities for private and foreign investors, the Allianz report noted.
Saudi Aramco reported last week that its third-quarter net profit rose 34.6 percent, despite restricted access to Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, driven by higher oil prices.
However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Riyadh’s economy will contract by 3.3 percent this year, a five-point downgrade from its July forecast.
In mid-October, IMF regional director Jihad Azour warned that the Gulf’s oil-producing economies will not return to their pre-war growth path in the medium term, as the war has left lasting damage across several sectors.
Azour said the region initially avoided an energy crisis by using reserves, stockpiles, non-Gulf supplies, and alternative shipping routes. Those buffers are nearly depleted, making a prolonged war the region’s biggest economic threat.
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