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PM Orbán’s warning to Europe: ‘World wars are never called world wars in the beginning’

“This vortex of war could drag Europe down”

BY DÉNES ALBERT | REMIX NEWS | APRIL 22, 2024

Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán has issued a new warning about rising tensions in Europe, saying that world wars are never called world wars in the beginning, noting that the First and Second World Wars were initiated by a series of smaller conflicts.

“Brussels is playing with fire. What it is doing is an act of temptation. World wars are never called world wars in the beginning. The Third Balkan War, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, the partition of Poland, and the end was a world war twice over,” he warned.

Tensions are rising in Europe, Orbán said in a post on his Facebook page on Sunday, pointing out that the mood on the continent is one of war, and that politics is dominated by the logic of war.

“The NATO secretary-general wants to set up a NATO-Ukraine mission. European leaders have already fallen into war, they see this war as their own war and are fighting it as their own war,” he said.

“At first, it was only about sending helmets. Then sanctions, but not on energy producers! Then, yes, on those too. Then, came the arms shipments. First firearms, then tanks, then planes, and then financial aid. More and more, tens of billions. Now, we’re somewhere around a 100 billion — in euros. Money, supplies, weapons, but the situation is not getting better, it’s getting worse,” the prime minister said.

Orbán reiterated a warning he has now issued a number of times, saying that Europe is one step away from the West sending troops to Ukraine. He said that Brussels is promoting a “war vortex” that could drag Europe into the abyss.

At the end of his post, Orbán stressed that Hungarians know what war is like, referring to the devastating period of destruction Hungary faced during the Second World War and the subsequent decades-long occupation of Hungary by Soviet forces, including a crushed uprising against communist rule in 1956.

At the same time, Orbán stated Hungary’s position: “This is not our war. We do not want war, and we do not want Hungary to become the plaything of great powers again.”

“That is why we have to stand up for peace — at home, in Brussels, in Washington, in the UN and in NATO,” Orbán concluded his post.

April 22, 2024 Posted by | Militarism | , , , | Leave a comment

World Military Expenditure Reaches All-Time High of $2,443Bln in 2023 – SIPRI

Sputnik – 22.04.2024

Global military expenditure increased by 6.8% in 2023 year-over-year and reached a new record high of $2,443 billion, with the three largest spenders being the US, China and Russia, according to new data published on Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

“World military expenditure rose for the ninth consecutive year to an all-time high of $2,443 billion,” SIPRI said.

Moreover, military expenditure increased in all five of the geographical regions defined by SIPRI, the institute added.

The US remained the world’s biggest military spender with a 37% share of the world total and $916 billion spent in 2023. It is followed by China with a 12% share and an estimated $296 billion spent on the military and Russia with a 4.5% share and an estimated $109 billion spent on defense last year, which represents a 24% increase compared to 2022.

Ukraine, the eighth largest spender in 2023, increased its military spending by 51% year-over-year to $64.8 billion, which is 58% of the country’s total government spending.

The Middle East has seen a 9% surge in military spending, with Israel’s spending growing by 24% to $27.5 billion amid its operation in the Gaza Strip, the institute added.

April 22, 2024 Posted by | Economics, Militarism | , , , , | Leave a comment

West mired in Ukraine crisis due to unwillingness or inability to confront reality

By Eusebio Filopatro | Global Times | April 21, 2024

As the Russia-Ukraine war drags on, a peace conference is to be held in Switzerland this summer. But Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said that Russia hadn’t been invited to participate in June’s talks. “It would have been funny if it weren’t so sad,” he commented.

Practically all Russian commentators, and even some prominent Western ones, trace the roots of the conflict in Ukraine to NATO’s attempts at incorporating Russia’s neighbor – as officially stated since at least as far back as 2008. A disregard for Russia’s status as an equal and sovereign partner was evident in the contempt for the Minsk agreements, which both former German chancellor Angela Merkel and former French president Francois Hollande described as gimmicks to buy time for the only option that was seriously pursued, military confrontation. Later on, Vladimir Putin’s vocal request for security guarantees was dismissed yet again.

Fast forward a few years, and this historical tragedy has snowballed to its extreme conclusions. Politico recently reported Ukrainian officials’ concerns about a collapse of the frontlines. As Elon Musk calls for a negotiated settlement to come soon, he warns that the longer the war drags on, the larger the territory Russia will seek to annex. Even CNN is now explaining how Russia’s guided bombs are wreaking havoc on Ukrainian defenses. Meanwhile, the IMF has raised Russia’s growth outlook. In short, and irrespective of whether this will take weeks, months or years, Russia is well placed politically, economically and militarily to inflict the final blow.

The conditions of Ukraine’s sponsors are remarkably less favorable. Europe’s economic problems are “far bigger than a shallow recession.” The Union faces a dilemma over restricting imports from Ukraine or throwing its own agriculture under the bus. It is also split on the use of frozen Russian assets to finance the war. The Union will renew its Parliament in June and it is unclear whether Ursula von der Leyen will be re-elected. Even though the US House of Representatives on Saturday passed a $95 billion legislative package, including $60.84 billion to address the conflict in Ukraine, the US’ presidential elections in November still cast another shadow of uncertainty, to the point that NATO is considering setting aside “Trump-proof” funds.

Europe’s public opinion has also made up its mind on the matter. Only one in ten Europeans believe Ukraine can defeat Russia. The Pope has literally invited Ukraine to raise a white flag. Wolfgang Streeck, the Director of the Max Planck Institute, said, “The war is lost but our governments refuse to admit it.” A crushing military defeat would be the worst possible background for European and American elections, and erode confidence in the respective leaderships: The West should not fall prey to a sunk cost fallacy of catastrophic proportions. What would then be the way forward?

The rational course of action would be for the West to turn to diplomacy to correct such a disastrous trajectory, much like Musk and the Pope suggested. Even if Russia refused, or the attempt failed, the West would at least claim the moral high ground on this occasion. A comprehensive peace conference with the involvement of representative guarantors from the Global South could offer a lifeline to Ukraine, and a model for ironing out geopolitical tensions that are dangerously multiplying all over the world. Chinese diplomacy is going out of its way to make this possible, and the African Union, Brazil, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and many others have also stepped forward with constructive proposals.

Yet leaders on both shores of the Atlantic are headed elsewhere. US Vice President Kamala Harris and European Council President Charles Michel are adamant that “There is only plan A”: military support for Ukraine. Along this path, some risky decisions appear increasingly likely. And pressure is mounting to use seized Russian assets to finance Ukraine. Of this move, in 2022, US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen said “would not be legal.” But, apparently, a green light could come at the G7 summit in June.

If a botched peace conference would exact high reputational costs for Western diplomacy, the seizing of Russian assets could turn into a kamikaze attack, and unsettle the very domain wherein the West retains relative dominance, the international financial system. Neither initiative is likely to end the conflict in Ukraine.

If all such workarounds are really only dead ends, a reckoning with reality should be hastened rather than delayed. Yet, it is precisely the unwillingness or inability to confront the reality of the situation that got us here in the first place.

The author is a foreign policy analyst for Italy and the EU.

April 21, 2024 Posted by | Economics, Militarism | , , , , | Leave a comment

Rep. Gosar on Ukraine Vote: Congress ‘Seems to Want to Help Every Country Except America’

By Ilya Tsukanov – Sputnik – 21.04.2024

The House of Representatives gathered for a rare weekend session Saturday to advance $95 billion in new assistance for Washington’s foreign allies and clients, including just shy of $61 billion for Ukraine. Moscow slammed the decision, saying it signals US ruling elites’ commitment to Ukraine’s destruction in a hopeless proxy war against Russia.

Saturday’s vote to provide new US aid to Ukraine is a sign of the US political class’s readiness to “waste” taxpayer money abroad instead of using it to focus on issues Americans actually care about, Congressman Paul Gosar has told Sputnik.

“Unfortunately, 210 Democrats joined 101 Republicans in voting in favor of wasting more money on a war half a globe away. America is in a ditch and too many in Congress refuse to find the will to address the long list of issues ailing our nation,” Gosar, a Republican representing the state of Arizona, said.

“I’m angry that Congress and Joe Biden don’t hesitate to find another $60 billion for a corrupt country but are unbothered that inflation is 19% higher since Biden took office, gasoline is hovering around $4 a gallon nationwide, 11 million illegal aliens have poured into our country, interest rates for a home mortgage are 8%, our roads and bridges are in disrepair, our national debt is $34 trillion, real wages are in decline, parents have to decide between feeding their children or putting fuel in their automobile and we have a growing veteran homeless crisis in every corner of our country,” the lawmaker said.

Pointing out that he has voted consistently “against every dime wasted on the war in Ukraine” and “repeatedly called for peace,” since the escalation of the crisis in February 2022, Gosar confirmed that he voted against the $61 billion package which advanced through the House on Saturday as well.

“To say that I’m very unhappy that these politicians seem to want to help every single country except America is an understatement. I am beyond angry. It’s long past time we put America first,” he said.

Gosar is one of a handful of conservative Republicans in the House who have sought to rein in defense spending and US funding for conflicts abroad in favor of dealing with more urgent priorities facing the US, including economic issues, the debt and the border crisis.

Gosar joined Georgia Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene and Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky this week in a motion to oust Speaker Mike Johnson from his seat for advancing the Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan aid bills.

The Arizona congressman has taken a hardline, principled ‘America First’ foreign policy stance, voting Saturday against not only Ukraine aid, but against $14 billion in additional assistance to Israel. Last year, he joined Representative Matt Gaetz, Senator Rand Paul and others in calling for an end to the illegal US military presence in northeastern Syria. In 2021, he joined with House Republicans to vote to repeal the 2002 Congressional authorization for the Iraq War. In October 2022, he extended an invitation to Presidents Putin and Zelensky to come to Arizona to hold negotiations to end the Ukrainian crisis.

April 21, 2024 Posted by | Economics, Militarism | , | Leave a comment

US Pumping Ukraine With Weapons to Protract War ‘Up Till Last Ukrainian’ – Moscow

Sputnik – 21.04.2024

MOSCOW – The United States is prepared to pour weapons into Ukraine as long as necessary and spare no Ukrainian lives to make sure that its proxy continues fighting Russia, including via terrorist attacks and killings of journalists, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Sunday.

“The ruling elites in the US, regardless of party affiliation, are ready to arm the regime in Kiev so that it will be able to fight up till the last Ukrainian and continue, among other things, terrorist attacks on civilian targets on Russian territory, sabotage attacks and killing journalists,” the ministry said in a statement.

The White House is no longer counting on a “mythical Ukrainian victory,” but wants the Ukrainian army to hold out at least until the presidential election in the US, in order not to ruin the image of US President Joe Biden, the ministry noted.

“The actions of the US, as a de facto party to the conflict, will be unconditionally and decisively rebuffed, and Washington’s ever-deeper plunge into hybrid warfare against Russia will turn out to be as loud and humiliating of a fiasco for the United States as it was in Vietnam and Afghanistan. In any case, the feverish attempts to save [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky’s neo-Nazi regime are doomed to failure. The goals and objectives of the special military operation will be fully achieved,” the ministry added.

On Saturday, the US House of Representatives passed a bill that would unlock $60.84 billion in Ukraine-related aid, if approved by the Senate.

April 21, 2024 Posted by | Militarism, War Crimes | , , | Leave a comment

US could send more military personnel to Kiev – Pentagon

US Embassy in Kiev, Ukraine © John Moore/Getty Images
RT | April 21, 2024

The US is considering sending additional military advisers to its embassy in Kiev, Pentagon spokesperson Major General Pat Ryder told Politico magazine on Saturday.

The troops would be serving a non-combat role, primarily supporting logistics, monitoring the delivery of US weapons, and assisting with weapons maintenance.

The news comes as the US House of Representatives passed a $61 billion aid bill on Saturday, with the Pentagon saying that the package would include “things like air defense and artillery capabilities.”

Although Ryder did not specify how many personnel could be sent to Kiev, citing “operational security and force protection reasons,” sources familiar with the matter told Politico that the number would be up to 60.

The additional advisers could work at the Office of Defense Cooperation at the embassy, Ryder explained.

Ukraine is struggling to regain the initiative on the battlefield in the wake of a failed counteroffensive last summer, as well as more recent losses exacerbated by the dwindling supply of foreign ammunition.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently admitted that “things on the battlefield begin to shift a bit in Russia’s favor” with Kiev’s forces struggling “in terms of holding the line.” According to Politico, the advisers would be tasked with helping the Ukrainians with the newly delivered equipment as the fighting is expected to intensify during the summer.

Although President Joe Biden promised that American troops will not be sent to fight Russia in Ukraine, Moscow has repeatedly warned that it considers the US and other NATO members de facto participants in the conflict. Russia further criticized French President Emmanuel Macron and other European politicians who said that they could not rule out Western boots on the ground in Ukraine in the future.

Russia maintains that no amount of foreign aid would change the course of the conflict or save Ukraine from defeat.

April 21, 2024 Posted by | Militarism | , , | Leave a comment

US house speaker announces ‘new axis of evil’

RT | April 19, 2024

In a dramatic break from his party’s hardline conservative base, US House Speaker MIke Johnson this week praised the country’s deep state, named Russia, China, and Iran as an “axis of evil,” and vowed to put his job on the line to funnel more than $60 billion to Kiev.

For months, Johnson has resisted bringing a $95 billion foreign aid bill to a vote, arguing that neither he nor his fellow Republicans could support such a bill – which would give $14 billion in military aid to Israel and $60 billion to Ukraine – without it being tied to an overhaul of US border security.

However, after a series of recent meetings with US intelligence chiefs, Johnson has changed his tune.

“This is a critical time right now, a critical time on the world stage,” Johnson told reporters on Wednesday. “I think providing lethal aid to Ukraine right now is critically important. I really do. I really do believe the intel and the briefings that we’ve gotten.”

“I believe [Chinese President] Xi [Jinping] and [Russian President] Vladimir Putin and Iran really are an axis of evil,” he continued. “I think they’re in coordination on this. I think that Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he were allowed.”

Johnson’s comments represented a break with the Republican Party’s pro-Trump wing. These supporters of the former president – most prominent among them Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene and Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz – view the country’s intelligence agencies as arms of the anti-Trump “deep state,” and have called for the flow of money to Kiev to be halted.

“Fighting a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, which is a non-NATO member nation, is not protecting America’s national security interests, it doesn’t protect the United States of America, as a matter of fact, it pushes us closer and closer to world war three,” Greene told journalist Tucker Carlson earlier this month.

Johnson’s reference to an “axis of evil,” however, invokes the more interventionist GOP of the past. Coined by speechwriter David Frum, the phrase was first used by George W. Bush to refer to Iran, Iraq, and North Korea in the months leading up to the invasion of Iraq. Former National Security Adviser John Bolton later added Cuba, Libya and Syria to the list.

Despite resistance from some of its Republican members, the House Rules Committee agreed on Thursday to split the foreign aid bill into three separate bills – one each for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The house voted in favor of this move on Friday, leaving Johnson free to schedule a vote on each bill for Saturday, even as Greene filed a motion to remove him from the speakership.

Johnson said on Wednesday that he anticipated such a move, telling reporters that he was willing to “take personal risk” to pass the bills.

April 19, 2024 Posted by | Militarism, Russophobia | , , , | Leave a comment

NATO ‘one step away’ from sending troops to Ukraine – Orban

RT | April 19, 2024

The leaders of the EU and NATO are potentially ready to deploy forces to Ukraine, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban claimed on Friday. Brussels sees the conflict between Moscow and Kiev as its “own” and is failing to consider the risks arising from its ever-deeper involvement, he warned.

The mood of EU leaders is “one of war,” Orban told a gathering of his Fidesz Party ahead of the EU Parliament elections. “There is a pro-war majority in Brussels today,” he said, adding that the bloc’s politics “are dominated by the logic of war.” EU politicians are already so invested in the conflict that they fail to see the flaws in their strategy, the prime minister argued.

Despite all the “money and weapons, the situation is not improving [for Kiev], in fact, it is getting worse… We are one step away from the West sending troops to Ukraine,” Orban warned. “This is a vortex of war that can drag Europe into its depths. Brussels is playing with fire.”

Budapest will not let itself be dragged into the hostilities, and “will not enter… the war on either side,” the prime minister pledged, adding that his country “must stand for peace” everywhere, including in “Brussels, Washington, the UN and NATO.”

“We don’t want war, and we don’t want Hungary to become a toy of great powers again,” Orban stated.

The idea of sending NATO troops to Ukraine has been repeatedly floated by Western leaders. French President Emmanuel Macron first raised it in February, saying “all options are possible.”

Macron has since doubled down, stating that there are “no limits” to support for Kiev. His words initially alarmed some NATO allies, who quickly denied having such plans. However, the French leader did receive backing from certain members of the US-led military bloc.

In March, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said Russia’s military operation in Ukraine requires an “asymmetric escalation” on the part of the West. Warsaw’s top diplomat also called the idea of a NATO presence in Ukraine “not unthinkable.”

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said earlier in April that every NATO member already has military personnel in Ukraine operating as advisers or instructors. Last week, former British minister of state for the armed forces James Heappey told Sky News that sending NATO forces to Ukraine did “deserve consideration.”

Moscow has repeatedly warned that deploying NATO troops in Ukraine would bring the US-led bloc to the brink of a full-blown conflict with Russia. President Vladimir Putin stated in March that it would be “one step shy of a full-scale World War III.”

April 19, 2024 Posted by | Militarism, Russophobia | , , | Leave a comment

US to Allocate $40Mln in Defense Aid to Argentina Wishing to Be NATO’s Partner – Embassy

Sputnik – 19.04.2024

The United States will allocate $40 million to support defense modernization of Argentina, which has declared its intention to become NATO’s global partner, the US Embassy in Buenos Aires said.

On Thursday, Argentine Defense Minister Luis Alfonso Petri said that Buenos Aires wanted to become NATO’s global partner and had already submitted a corresponding request. NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana welcomed the request, saying that closer political and practical cooperation could benefit both parties.

“The United States is proud to announce that it is providing $40 million in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) to support Argentina’s defense modernization,” the embassy said in a statement released on Thursday.

The diplomatic mission noted that such support is provided only to the US’s important partners.

Argentina will be able to purchase defense products, training services, and improve interaction thanks to US military aid. The funds will also contribute to Argentina’s purchase of F-16 fighter jets, the statement read.

In November 2023, Javier Milei won the runoff presidential election in Argentina. During the presidential campaign, Milei spoke against joining BRICS and cooperating with China, Brazil and Russia, and advocated a foreign policy oriented toward Israel and the United States.

April 19, 2024 Posted by | Militarism | , , | Leave a comment

Iran’s air defenses down drones over Isfahan, Tabriz

Al Mayadeen | April 19, 2024

No external aggression on Iran occurred after Friday midnight, Iranian sources informed on the matter told Al Mayadeen.

Following circulating news on Western-based media outlets, regarding a supposed Israeli attack on Iran, sources told Al Mayadeen that such an event did not occur. Instead, Iranian air defenses repelled a relatively small drone attack in Tabriz and Isfahan, which were likely launched domestically.

What is being circulated about an Israeli attack on Iran are lies and are part of a misinformation war, according to our sources.

Iranian sources also added that complicit United States media outlets are waging a proxy war of disinformation on behalf of the Israeli occupation.

This comes after Iran’s Space Agency confirmed that several drones, of unspecified origin, were downed over Iranian airspace. The agency said that no missile attack on Iran occurred on Friday.

The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) said that short-range and medium-range Iranian air defense batteries repelled the attack.

Earlier, Iran’s Mehr News Agency, citing the Director General of the Iran Airports and Air Navigation Company, said that all air traffic was suspended in Isfahan, Shiraz, and Tehran. Iranian media outlets reported that air defense systems were activated in Isfahan, as explosions of an unknown cause were heard.

Al Mayadeen’s correspondent, citing the spokesperson of the Iranian Space Agency, said that air defense batteries responded to three targets over Isfahan. He added that reports indicate that air defenses responded to threats in Qahjavarestan, northeast of Isfahan, as no aerial objects hit ground targets.

Our correspondent stressed that all of the explosions heard on Friday were a result of air defense interceptions.

The Islamic Republic News Agency reports that air defenses were activated in Tabriz, in northern Iran, resulting in a series of explosions. The agency added that no aerial objects hit ground targets in Tabriz and that all loud sounds were a result of interceptors exploding over Tabriz’s sky.

April 19, 2024 Posted by | Militarism | , , | Leave a comment

Wheels Within Wheels: Complexity is Real in War

By Bill Buppert | The Libertarian Institute | April 18, 2024

Sober observers may find another reason for the Iranian attack against Israel this month in retaliation for the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate annex building adjacent to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria on April Fools Day.

May I suggest it is more important in this case to exhaust the kinetic Israeli/US air defense assets and accuracy doesn’t matter as long as exquisite munitions are exhausted; whether shoot/shoot/look or shoot/look/shoot which is a slight permutation on dynamic retasking, controlled pairs or more of air defense munitions are launched as a matter of course to service incoming ordnance. If the object here is to empty the western magazine cupboards by sending your older and less effective munitions aloft (Iran), mission accomplished and you have a very sufficient intelligence mapping of Israeli Anti-Access Air Defense (A2AD) dispositions and tactics, techniques and procedures (TTP) for follow-on responses.

Nations and regions do stumble into war precipitously but there are conflicts in history where the weaker opponents plan and shape the conditions to prevail before the conflict is started; Vietnam is the best example in recent history of reading the tea leaves and setting the stage for success against superior forces.

The west has a manufacturing crisis right now that is existential in restocking and reconstituting the emptying stocks of war materiel. One can either favor or oppose doing that but the fact remains the manufacturing base and capability is an open question for America and its allies.The chaos avalanche of the competency crisis, the reproducibility problems in STEM research & application and the very real infrastructure failures increasing in frequency year by year doesn’t bode well for those wishing to replenish the diminished war stocks potentially reconstituting with stuff that simply doesn’t work.

The second 155mm artillery shell manufacturing plant in the west just went up in flames in the UK in less than a week. One in Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in PA and the BAE Systems Glascoed Plant in Monmouthshire, UK.

In war, there is a lot to be said for how to leverage shaping the conflict left of bang.

I’m fond of saying that many people are in charge but no one is in control.

April 18, 2024 Posted by | Ethnic Cleansing, Racism, Zionism, Militarism, Wars for Israel | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Ukrainian soldiers threaten to go AWOL if they are not demobilised

By Ahmed Adel | April 18, 2024

According to the Ukrainian portal Strana, Kiev is facing problems in increasing the number of military personnel as a new mobilisation law will take at least eight months to be imposed. Worsening the situation, military personnel in Odessa are threatening to abandon their positions and even kill if the new law does not allow them to demobilise.

On April 11, Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) approved a bill on expanding mobilisation for the military. The National Security and Defence Committee removed the provision on demobilisation from the bill on the eve of its presentation to the Verkhovna Rada for its second reading. Dmitry Lazutkin, a representative of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, later said that a separate bill on demobilisation was planned, which would take eight months.

Ukrainian journalists in Odessa questioned military personnel about their thoughts towards the government’s decision to exclude demobilisation from the bill on military conscription.

In that case, “I will leave the unit without permission,” one of the soldiers told the Ukrainian portal Strana.

Another Ukrainian serviceman said that the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada should go to the front on an equal footing with them, whilst another believes that changes are necessary in the country and that it is not possible to fight with the same soldiers all the time, making demobilisation necessary.

“I’ll shoot them all. They don’t have such a right… So now I get up and go back to the war whilst they have grown their bellies and will sit in the Verkhovna Rada? This shouldn’t happen,” said another soldier.

“There is the expression ‘Servant of the People.’ It is not we who must serve them, but they who must serve us,” added another, in reference to the name of the ruling party founded by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky.

These threats to go AWOL come as the New York Times reported that since the start of Russia’s special military operation, thousands of Ukrainian men have attempted to flee across the Tisza River from mandatory conscription. According to Romanian authorities cited by the American newspaper, approximately 6,000 men have arrived in their country across the river since February 2022.

“That thousands of Ukrainian men have chosen to risk the swim rather than face the dangers as soldiers on the eastern front highlights the challenge for President Volodymyr Zelensky as he seeks to mobilize fresh troops after more than two years of bruising, bloody trench warfare with Russia,” noted The New York Times.

The new law toughens penalties for attempting to evade military conscription and aims to increase the number of troops on the frontline. The newspaper also highlights that many of the Ukrainians who rushed to volunteer have fought continuously since 2022, with only two weeks of annual leave.

“Soldiers are enlisted until the end of hostilities, with no defined date for release from their obligation to serve. With casualty rates high, being drafted, soldiers say, is like getting a one-way ticket to the front,” the New York Times reported.

The escape of Ukrainians from the country has allowed human trafficking to flourish. In 2023, for example, the Mukachevo Border Guard dismantled 56 criminal gangs involved in this activity.

According to Lieutenant Lesya Fedorova, spokesperson for the Mukachevo Border Guard unit, and whom the newspaper cited, the cost to be taken to the other side of the Ukrainian border currently amounts to $10,000. This is incredibly expensive when considering that the average monthly salary is about $500.

Crossing to the Romanian side via the Tisza River also carries dangers, with Fedorova reporting that at least 22 bodies have been found on the river’s banks, with many more likely having drowned but never found. Yet, this is a risk Ukrainians are evidently willing to take since deployment to the frontlines all but guarantees death or permanent injuries.

It is evident that the new mobilisation law will struggle to recruit the 450,000-500,000 men the Kiev regime is believed to want since there is no morale among the general population and because all those who are motivated to fight have already volunteered. Failure to mobilise enough men will also lead to active soldiers abandoning their posts or even mutiny, a scenario which will be devastating for the country once Russia launches its offensive, expected at the end of spring or summer, and the Ukrainian military is driven back with high casualty numbers.

Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

April 18, 2024 Posted by | Civil Liberties, Militarism | , | Leave a comment

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