Iran’s oil production nears pre-sanctions levels: Report
The Cradle | October 4, 2024
Iran’s oil production is running at almost full capacity despite US sanctions, amid Israeli threats to target Tehran’s oil infrastructure in an expanded regional war, Bloomberg reported on 4 October.
The Islamic Republic’s oil output has reached 3.4 million barrels per day, just a few hundred thousand barrels below a previous high of 3.9 million.
After US President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Iran, Tehran’s production dropped as low as two million barrels per day.
Iran now sells much of its oil to China at reduced prices, as Beijing has been willing to ignore US sanctions seeking to block the sales.
“Iran is having success exporting thanks to a willing customer in China, the increased sophistication of illicit transportation channels, and the relatively low interest in the US to take action,” said Henning Gloystein and Greg Brew, analysts at Eurasia Group. “There’s a risk that Israel strikes Iranian oil facilities.”
According to Bloomberg, Tehran’s increased sales to China have taken place with the “tacit approval” of the White House, as US President Joe Biden and his advisors have eased sanctions enforcement to keep gasoline prices low.
In August 2023, before the wars in Gaza and Lebanon began, Bloomberg reported that “months of secretive diplomacy” between the US and Iran “have yielded progress on prisoner exchanges, the unblocking of frozen assets, and possibly even Iran’s enrichment of uranium. They also seem to have produced an informal arrangement on oil flows.”
Israel reportedly threatened to bomb Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities following Tehran’s large-scale missile attack on Israel.
Iran fired as many as 400 ballistic missiles at Israel on 1 October in retaliation for its killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on 27 September.
In an off-the-cuff remark to a reporter, Biden said that his administration has been “discussing” possible Israeli plans to attack Iran’s oil industry in retaliation for the Iranian attack.
Bloomberg added that world oil prices jumped five percent on Thursday after Biden’s comment.
Tehran Will Strike Israeli Refineries, Gas Fields If Israel Attacks Iran – IRGC
Sputnik – 04.10.2024
TEHRAN – Tehran will strike Israeli refineries, gas fields if Israel attack Iran, deputy commander in the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Ali Fadavi, said on Friday.
“If the occupiers [Israel] make a mistake [by attacking Iran], we will strike at all their energy sources … all oil refineries and gas fields,” Fadavi was quoted as saying by the Mehr news agency.
Iran is a large country with many economic centers, while Israel has only three power plants and several refineries that Iran can hit at the same time, Fadavi added.
Tehran does not intend to continue to strike Tel Aviv, but if Israel takes any action against Iran, the response will be tougher, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday.
“We do not intend to continue the attacks. If Israel takes any more steps against Iran, our actions will be tougher, and we will definitely respond. Our response will be proportionate and absolutely calculated,” Araghchi told a press conference in Lebanon, as quoted by the Tasnim news agency.
Explainer: Why did Israeli air defense systems again fail to intercept Iranian missiles?
By Ivan Kesic | Press TV | October 3, 2024
The successful military operation launched by the Iranian armed forces on Tuesday against the Israeli-occupied territories again demonstrated the inefficacy of Israeli air defense systems.
Iranian military officials did not specify the number of ballistic missiles that were fired directly at the Zionist entity, however, media reports put the number of missiles at more than 400.
According to a statement released by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), almost 90 percent of missiles managed to penetrate through air defenses to hit the intended target.
Israeli regime sources claimed that Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles and that “a large number” or “the majority” were intercepted by air defense systems.
Some Israeli and Western media reports also claimed that 99 percent of missiles were intercepted.
Evidence in the form of verified videos circulating on social media showed that the interception was very little as missiles successfully landed on the ground, hitting the targets.
There was smoke and fire all around as sirens blared loudly across the occupied territories.
In Iran, private footage shared on social media platforms showed one salvo of missiles near Kermanshah, another salvo near Tabriz, and another salvo near Shiraz.
Hundreds of direct strikes were reported in the Israeli-occupied territories, many of them hitting the Nevatim Airbase, Tel Nof Airbase, Hatzerim Airbase and the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv.
Overall, the data of hundreds of ballistic missiles and 80-90 percent success rates almost perfectly match the IRGC sources and confirm that the Israeli regime is once again resorting to disinformation.
As with the April case, more than a hundred widely visible intercept explosion traces over the skies of Jordan, Syria and Iraq would be recorded in the early evening hours, while there is again virtually none.
To shoot down medium-range ballistic missiles, used in the Iranian strike, the Israeli regime uses long-range anti-ballistic systems such as Arrow and David’s Sling that operate at a range of tens or hundreds of kilometers and very high altitudes.
Both systems proved extremely ineffective during Iran’s retaliatory strike with missile salvos in April, as well as Yemen’s single hypersonic missile attack on Tel Aviv in mid-September.
The case related to Nevatim Airbase is particularly intriguing, where nearly 30 warheads hit the target simultaneously within a matter of seconds, without any visible attempt of intercepting.
Some sources suggest that one of the direct hits on Tel Nof Airbase with visible secondary explosions was actually the Arrow battery with radar.
The US-Israeli joint development of the Arrow systems over the past 25 years cost billions of dollars and was previously touted as “99 effective,” which seems bizarre today.
Based on these pompous and obviously fabricated claims, Israel secured a $3.5 billion export contract with Germany last year, marking the largest military sale in its history.
All reliable data in the past year show that these air defense systems were developed to intercept outdated ballistic missiles and are not capable of dealing with salvoes of maneuvering missiles or even single hypersonic types.
In reporting the Iranian attack, the Israeli regime also used other propaganda tools, such as emphasizing the claims that there were no deaths, although the Iranian targets were obviously military installations, not civilians.
Israeli military sources also are yet to publish any foolproof technical evidence of Iranian ballistic missiles being intercepted, basing their claims on rhetoric.
Importantly, last year Press TV website exposed the fallacy of the so-called “over 90 percent success rate” of Israel’s air defense systems, establishing why such claims were trumpeted for lucrative exports and psychological calming of its own settler population.
Iran slams G7’s ‘irresponsible’ statement on ‘necessary response’ to Israel
Press TV – October 3, 2024
Iran has condemned the Group of Seven (G7)’s “biased and irresponsible” approach toward the developments in West Asia, including Tehran’s “necessary response” to Israel’s acts of aggression.
G7 leaders in a statement on Wednesday condemned Tehran’s launch of more than 180 missiles at Tel Aviv in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders and an Iranian military commander.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaee on Thursday “pointed to the definite responsibility of G7 countries, especially the US, in aggravating insecurity and instability in West Asia due to their armament, financial and political support of the aggressor”.
He warned about the serious consequences of this approach on the peace and stability of the region and beyond.
“The recent missile operation by the Islamic Republic of Iran against a combination of military-intelligence targets of the Zionist regime was a necessary response to the acts of aggression by the occupying regime,” Baqaee said.
The operation was “within the framework of the inherent right of legitimate self-defense”, the spokesman said, condemning the use of threats and sanctions to put pressure on the Iranian nation.
Baqaee emphasized Iran’s determination to protect the national security and the vital interests of the Iranian people in the region.
He also criticized the “irresponsible interventions of extra-regional actors, including the US, especially through continuing their all-out support for the Israeli occupation regime” which he described as the “main cause of instability in the West Asia region”.
“If the Group of Seven is really concerned about the peace and security of the region, it should use its leverage to immediately end the Palestinian genocide and stop the aggression of the Zionist regime against Lebanon, Syria and other countries in the region,” he said.
The Foreign Ministry on Thursday said it had summoned the German and Austrian ambassadors after Berlin and Vienna summoned Iran’s representatives to protest the Islamic Republic’s response to the Israeli assassinations.
Russia concerned over Israeli signs of possibly striking Iran: Ryabkov
Al Mayadeen | October 3, 2024
Russia has expressed concern over “Israel’s” signals suggesting a potential “retaliatory strike” on Iran, which could involve targeting Iranian nuclear facilities.
In a statement to Sputnik on Thursday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov emphasized that considering such scenarios is unacceptable.
He expressed deep concern, highlighting that any escalation of the current war could lead to severe consequences.
“I also want to say that nuclear facilities as such, in any case, should always be taken out of any conflict,” Ryabkov stressed.
He also emphasized the need for the international community, including the IAEA and its leadership, to speak out and condemn the mere consideration of such scenarios.
This comes shortly after Israeli media reported, citing Israeli officials, that “Israel” might respond to Iran’s significant ballistic missile attack on Tuesday by targeting strategic infrastructure, such as gas or oil rigs, or by directly striking Iran’s nuclear sites.
Now it’s oil: China, BRICS and OPEC+ build new trading system, locking out US suppliers and banks
Inside China Business | September 27, 2024
China and Iran developed a comprehensive energy market, involving shadow fleets of tankers and a system of rebranding oil for domestic use, or for further export to other Asian countries. Russia has since joined, after sanctions were placed on oil producers and banks there. The result is a parallel economy that now totals millions of barrels per day in shipments to China by OPEC+ countries, and a sharp decline in global demand from Western suppliers. The implications for US and European oil suppliers are very negative, as global crude prices are now far below profit breakeven levels. Already, US oil majors are shelving oilfield development projects, and reducing active rig count. Resources and links: Barrons, BP Says Oil Demand Is Falling, While OPEC Says It’s Rising.
What Gives? https://www.barrons.com/articles/bp-s…
Rigzone, JP Morgan Talks Global Oil Demand https://www.rigzone.com/news/jp_morga…
S&P, Barclays lowers 2024 Brent oil price forecast to $93/b on demand concerns https://www.spglobal.com/commodityins…
Oil Prices Poised To Climb in 2024 Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty https://www.investopedia.com/oil-pric…
CNBC, OPEC is highly bullish on long-term oil demand growth. Not everyone agrees https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/24/opec-…
NPR, Oil prices plunge as demand from China falls https://www.npr.org/2024/09/14/nx-s1-…
Zerohedge, What Sanctions? China Imports Record Amount Of Iranian Oil https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/what…
The axis of evasion: Behind China’s oil trade with Iran and Russia https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs…
Oil price charts from finviz.com/futures and Bloomberg https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ash…
US drillers cut oil and gas rigs for fifth week in six, Baker Hughes says https://www.xm.com/se/research/market…
Average WTI price needed for U.S. oil and gas producers to stay profitable by well status in selected U.S. oilfields as of 2024 https://www.statista.com/statistics/7…
Capital Expenditure (CapEx) Definition, Formula, and Examples https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/…
Iran Showed Restraint for Two Months Amid Israeli Attacks – Russian UN Envoy
Sputnik – 02.10.2024
Iran has shown “exceptional” restraint for two months amid Israeli attacks, Russia’s UN envoy Vassily Nebenzia told a special meeting of the UN Security Council.
“A new victim of the Israeli war machine is Lebanon,” Nebenzia said. “After intense shelling of Lebanese cities, its southern neighbor launched a ground operation in that country.”
He added that Iran only took military action “after a series of political liquidations, including the assassination of Hamas Executive Council Head Haniyeh, Hezbollah Secretary General Nasrallah and a number of other leaders of movements opposing Israel,” and showed “exceptional restraint” for two months.
The Russian diplomat noted that statements from Western countries give the impression that “the only problem facing the Council is the response to Iran’s missile strike.”
“It is hard to imagine what role in the diplomatic process with such an assessment of the situation one can count on. It’s as if this all happened ‘in a vacuum’,” Nebenzia added. “As if nothing is happening and did not happen in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, Yemen, which led to a new most dangerous round of the growing Middle East conflict.”
There is a strong impression that the US is negotiating the release of hostages held in Gaza and a ceasefire in the enclave with itself, the envoy noted.
“For the sake of its Middle East ally, Washington has already used its veto power five times in the Security Council and since the beginning of July has been deliberately trying to lead us all around by the nose,” Nebenzia charged, “publicizing its notorious ‘plan Biden’ and its quiet diplomacy to broker a deal between Hamas and Israel.”
“Frankly speaking, all this gives the impression that Washington is conducting these indirect negotiations with itself,” he added.
The UN Security Council may consider adopting new resolutions on Lebanon amid the escalating conflict in the region, and given the non-implementation of the 2006 resolution 1701 that was meant to keep the peace following Israel’s last invasion of the country.
“Right after the meeting, we will hold informal consultations and see what documents can be proposed by the members,” Nebenzia told reporters later.
When asked whether Tehran had warned Moscow before Israel’s attack, Nebenzia stressed that Iran is a sovereign state that makes its own decisions.
Iran missile attack: what we learned last night
Mindless march to World War 3 may have hit a brick wall yesterday
Alex Krainer’s TrendCompass | October 2, 2024
During the night of 2nd October 2024, Iran unleashed their operation “True Promise 2,” launching between 200 and 400 ballistic missiles into Israel. As the video footage coming from Israel has shown, many of these missiles reached their targets inflicting extensive damage on the ground. Apparently, some offshore gas platforms were also struck. Claims and counterclaims are a bit all over the place at the moment: Israelis have claimed that the Iranian attack failed and that most of the missiles were intercepted. Netanyahu’s aide Hananya Naftali even tweeted a “BRAVO” to Israel’s aerial defence systems for intercepting “nearly all the missiles.”
But the footage from last night gives a very different impression; it corroborates those who claimed that many missiles hit their targets. A few of the videos also confirm that the Iranians do indeed possess hypersonic missiles. We also know now that these have a long range and seem accurate enough. This lesson alone could be a game changer.
Why hypersonic missiles are a game changer
Hypersonic missiles can’t be intercepted. The most advanced Western air defence systems can shoot down incoming projectiles flying at up to mach 3. So far as the Patriot Missiles are concerned, their success rate is very poor even at that. Nothing in Western powers’ arsenal can defend against hypersonic missiles and this certainly got the Pentagon’s attention. The implication is that all US Navy assets and military bases in the Middle East are defenceless, and that Iran has the capability to strike them.
During yesterday’s attack, two U.S. destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean launched twelve SM-3 ballistic missile interceptor rockets, their most advanced air defence system. The problem is that the current production rate of SM-3s is down to zero! Thus, even if SM-3s are effective, Western air defence systems are not for the long haul and will deplete rapidly in case of further escalation.
At the same time, Iran has many thousands of missiles ready. Here’s what CSIS says about Irans’ arsenal:
“Iran possesses the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, with thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles, some capable of striking as far as Israel and southeast Europe. For the past decade, Iran has invested significantly to improve these weapons’ precision and lethality. Such developments have made Iran’s missile forces… a credible threat to U.S. and partner military forces in the region.”
Hezbollah can shoot 3,000 missiles a day?
Then there’s Hezbollah. According to a 130-page report titled, “The Most Deadly War of All,” compiled by a group of six Israeli think-tanks and based on three years of research and the opinions of over 100 Israeli defence experts and IDF commanders, war on Hezbollah would be, as the report’s title suggests, the most deadly war of all for Israel. According to the report, Hezbollah would be capable of launching 2,500 to 3,000 missiles per day, a combination of long-range precision guided and unguided rockets.
The barrages would be launched toward specific targets in Israel with the potential of destroying the Iron Dome air-defence capability. IDF’s reserves of Iron Dome and David’s Sling interceptor missiles would likely be depleted within a few days from the start of a full-scale war with Hezbollah, leaving Israel exposed to thousands of missiles and drones launched by Hezbollah. This all could result in thousands of casualties and widespread panic among the settlement populations (already an estimated 200,000 settlers have abandoned their settlements in the north of Israel since the start of hostilities).
Not to mention, both Iran and Hezbollah have been preparing for this outbreak for over two decades now, and the Iranians now promised a much more painful strike if Israel decides to escalate further. Western powers won’t be able to stem the tsunami that Netanyahu is working to unleash, any more than the Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea has been able to restrain the Ansarallah in Yemen. But therein lies the good news, I think.
The good news, inshallah!
Certain political factions in Israel and in the West have been working overtime to provoke a major war and draw in both Iran and the United States. Some of the pro-Israel voices are utterly rapturous about the prospect; the things they say sound utterly deranged and surreal. It’s as though they convinced themselves that Israel is somehow endowed with superpowers and that it can instantly turn anyone they wish into a smoldering heap of ashes. They also seem to think that by killing Hassan Nasrallah, Israel eliminated Hezbollah. They ignore the fact that Hezbollah is a very extensive military and political organization. If the Israelis bombed the Vatican tomorrow and killed the pope, that wouldn’t be the end of Catholic Church.
Indeed, very childish and dangerous delusions gripped the most fanatical cohort of Israel supporters and saner heads must by now be aware of the extremely reckless adventure they’re dragging us all into. If a wider war erupts, all of US, UK and NATO assets in the Middle East are sitting ducks and will be destroyed or expelled from the region.
Furthermore, an interruption of crude oil traffic from the Persian Gulf would inflict a devastating blow to G7 economies at a time when they least need it. In addition, all of this could be hitting the proverbial fan just ahead of the elections, and they haven’t even managed to assassinate Trump yet! It is all reckless in the extreme; the odds of victory (which is yet to be defined) are slim to none, while a cataclysmic failure is nearly certain.
I may be succumbing to wishful thinking myself, but I believe that we will shortly see leaders in the West pull hard on the handbrake and effect the quickest 180 degree turn yet! In the end, perhaps they will arrive at the calculation that sacrificing Benjamin Netanyahu and allowing Israel a break so they can sober up and reassess their predicament is a much better deal than following the unhinged fanatics and committing a collective suicide. We’ll know soon enough. Who knows, maybe we can avoid World War 3.
‘Iron Dome Proved to Be a Bust’: Iran Strikes Israel in Retaliation for Assassinations
By John Miles – Sputnik – October 2, 2024
Iran launched a significant retaliatory attack against Israel late Tuesday night, ending months of speculation about how or whether the country would strike back after its provocative killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
The United States reportedly provided Iran with assurances after the attack against Haniyeh in July that Israel and the US would move constructively towards the establishment of a Palestinian state, ending Israel’s military aggression against its neighbors and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, where over 42,000 have died according to figures reported by the territory’s health ministry. Tel Aviv’s deadly attack against Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon last week dashed hopes of a cessation of violence as Israel claims it is preparing for a broader invasion of Lebanon.
“I’ve seen the videos and you can see the missiles continue to rain down and hit targets. Israel is imposing a news blackout,” former CIA analyst Larry Johnson said. “They don’t want the knowledge out there about what happened. But Iran made sure that it was not going to hit and run the risk of killing hundreds or thousands of Israeli civilians.”
“They were not going to act like the Israelis,” the analyst claimed. “They really consider themselves, if you will, more humane, more honorable, and by virtue of their action, I think they can make that case.”
Johnson claimed Iran was forced to strike Israel after false assurances from the United States that Israel would cease attacks on its neighbors after its killing of Haniyeh. Iran previously launched a retaliatory attack on Israel in April after Tel Aviv’s bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria killed two Iranian generals. The codename Operation True Promise was announced for the strike.
Iran’s Tuesday attack, dubbed Operation True Promise II, appears significantly more substantial than April’s strike in which the vast majority of Iranian missiles, rockets and drones were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome. Iran was reportedly able to successfully strike Israeli military targets Tuesday, including an Israeli air base where multiple US-provided F-35 aircraft were hit. Johnson claimed Israel’s attack against Nasrallah would’ve been launched from an F-35; the fighter jet would be key to any Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
The commentator compared Israel’s Iron Dome to the US Patriot missile system, claiming the US is unable to replenish the defense system rapidly enough to allow Israel to fight a long war of attrition.
“Lockheed Martin… can make about one and a half, one and a quarter [missiles] a day,” said Johnson. “I think Israel’s in a similar situation… [Iran] put Israel on notice, ‘If you launch any further strikes against us in any retaliation, we’re going to hit you harder next time and with more lethality.’ So this right now has a chance to really get out of control.”
“I cannot rule out that Israel is going to try to launch some conventional weapons at Iran, but I think they’re going to be defeated,” Johnson claimed.
“Israel may be tempted to try to use a nuclear device against an Iranian target,” he warned. “If that happens then we’re going to really be into another dimension, and this is going to get very, very serious. It’s already a serious situation, but it will get absolutely dangerous.”
The analyst suggested Israel would not be able to support military engagement against multiple enemies, even with the United States backing it up.
“Israel is not in a position to fight a multi-front war and it does not have the strategic depth to fight wars of attrition. And that’s exactly what it’s got itself into now,” Johnson pointed out. “It’s not going to be able to finish off Hezbollah in a week. It couldn’t even finish off Hamas in 12 months. It’s not going to be able to finish off Syria, finish off the Houthis or finish off Iran… That’s what Israel fails to understand. It does not have the ability to sustain itself in these kinds of operations for an extended period of time.”
“If US ships are involved that are off the coast of Iran, then we’ll see Iran react and they may even end up attacking some US ships,” he continued. “But they’ll certainly retaliate against Israel. Israel is not out of the woods at all, despite all the delusional nonsense that the extreme Zionist supporters are saying when they say, ‘oh, Iran didn’t touch us, Iran didn’t hurt us at all.’ Nonsense.”
The development comes as Democrats attempt to hold onto the White House in November’s presidential election, with former President Donald Trump casting himself as a defender of Israel. Vice President Kamala Harris will attempt to do the same, Johnson claimed, while also trying to prevent a regional conflagration in the Middle East before the election.
“The politics are going to dictate a lot of strategic military decisions, unfortunately,” said Johnson.
Explainer: Which Israeli military and intel bases did Iran hit in ‘Op. True Promise-II’?
By Ivan Kesic – Press TV – October 2, 2024
On Tuesday evening, Iranian armed forces launched a massive retaliatory operation against Israeli-occupied territories using hundreds of ballistic missiles.
According to the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), 90 percent of missiles struck the targets – military and intelligence sites in Tel Aviv and other occupied areas – evading air defense systems.
Among the main targets were the “Tel Nof” airbase near Tel Aviv, the “Nevatim” airbase that houses F-35 warplanes, the “Ramon” airbase, and the “Hatzerim” airbase among others.
Chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, in a statement after the operation offered details and lauded the heroic efforts of the country’s military forces.
“Tonight, the IRGC’s aerospace force took revenge for many Zionist crimes with its heroic operations,” he said, appreciating the seamless coordination between the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), the Iranian army and the ministry of defense in carrying out the successful operation.
Major General Bagheri emphasized that the IRGC chose three locations as primary targets of ‘Operation True Promise II’, specifically the Mossad headquarters, Nevatim Airbase and Hatzerim Airbase.
The first was chosen because the spy center has been found responsible for several assassinations, the second because F-35 jet fighters are stationed there, and the third because it was used to assassinate Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in a devastating attack in Beirut on Friday.
He further underscored that the economic and industrial centers of the Israeli regime and the people in the occupied territories were not targeted in this operation, although this was completely possible.
He added that the IRGC and the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran are ready for any scenario and that in the case of any violation of territorial integrity and sovereignty of Iran, the missile operation will be repeated on a larger scale, and that they will target the entire enemy infrastructure.
Mossad headquarters
Centers linked to the Israeli spy agency Mossad were correctly assumed to be the target of a retaliatory strike in a Press TV website report from mid-August following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in an Israeli airstrike in Tehran.
Among one of these mentioned centers was the operational headquarters of military intelligence unit 8200 at the Glilot Mizrah Interchange, located in the north of Tel Aviv, near the city of “Herzliya.”
In this military intelligence complex the collected information is processed and further forwarded to military strategists and other Israeli intelligence agencies, including Mossad.
This location was hit by several Iranian ballistic missiles on Tuesday night, as evidenced not only by official statements but also by private video recordings that appeared on social networks.
At least two such videos, the first taken from a balcony on Arik Einstein Street in Herzliya and the second taken from Route 482 near Ayalon Mall in Bnei Brak, show a direct hit to the compound.
Many videos verified by social media users showed the impact of Iranian strikes at the Mossad headquarters with some even documenting the crater following the attack.
Airbases
Nevatim, Hatzerim and Tel Nof airbases were also correctly identified as potential targets of a retaliatory operation in a Press TV website report from both April and August, with the explanation that the planes that attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April took off from there.
This huge airbase with four runways covers about 50 square kilometers and is located in the Negev desert, 15 km east of Beersheba and 12 km north of Dimona.
It hosts three squadrons of US-made F-35 stealth fighter jets, the 140th, 116th and 117th, as well as C-130 transport aircraft, Boeing 707 tanker aircraft and other reconnaissance aircraft.
At least seven different videos show direct hits from 20 to 30 Iranian ballistic missiles, which caused extensive damage to the base and, according to some sources, destroyed over 20 jet fighters.
A video from Beersheba also showed strikes on Hatzerim air base, with reports of destroyed F-15 jet fighters, and another three direct strikes on Tel Nof air base with secondary explosions, possibly a weapons depot or air defense system.
The attack on Nevatim airbase, according to military analysts, was “one of the heaviest documented so far” as it showed plumes of smoke and fire in dark sky.
Many users posted videos verifying the attack on Nevatim and other Israeli military bases.
Iran’s Foreign Minister on Missile Strike on Israel: Tehran Warned US Not to Interfere
Sputnik – 02.10.2024
TEHRAN – Tehran has sent Sweden a message for Washington saying that Iran’s missile attack on Israel on October 1 was Iran’s right to self-defense, while the Iranian side has separately warned the US not to interfere, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday.
On Tuesday, Iran launched several hundred ballistic missiles toward Israel in response to the killings of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, and senior IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that his government was not seeking a war with Israel but would confront any threat in a resolute manner.
“An exchange of messages does not mean [the existence] of agreements, and before the response [of Iran to Israel’s actions in the region] there was no exchange of messages. After the response, a warning was issued to Sweden to pass it on to the United States, and it was said [in this message] that this [missile attack against Israel] was our right to self-defense, and we have no intention of continuing [the strikes]. We also issued a warning to the United States to step aside and not to interfere,” Araghchi was quoted as saying by the Tasnim news agency.
There is a possibility of conflict in the Middle East, but Tehran believes that the situation in the region will stabilize in the coming days, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday.
“I see the coming days as bright. The possibility of conflict exists, but our forces are fully prepared. Last night, we only hit military and security targets and, unlike the Israeli side, did not affect the civilian sphere. We believe that we will see a kind of gradual stabilization of the situation in the region in the coming days,” Araghchi was quoted as saying by the Tasnim news agency.
Iran’s armed forces are ready for any possible actions of Israel, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday.
“Our armed forces are prepared for possible actions by the Israeli regime. If any new steps are taken by the [Israeli] regime and those who support it, they will face a tougher response from Iran,” Araghchi was quoted as saying by the Tasnim news agency.
Possible Escalation Scenarios
Iran has prepared hundreds of missiles that it could use if Israel or the United States decide to strike back, The New York Times reported, citing two members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps familiar with the matter.
Iran is ready to launch these missiles from western borders, the newspaper said.
Israel may strike oil production facilities inside Iran and other strategic targets within days in response to Tehran’s massive missile attack and will consider other options, including hitting its nuclear facilities, if Tehran attacks again, the Axios news portal reported, citing Israeli officials.
At the same time, Israel has not yet decided on specific steps to respond to Iran’s missile strike, as it wants to coordinate these measures with the US, the news portal reported.
According to a US official, Washington has made it clear to Israel that it supports its intention to respond to Iran’s shelling, but believes the response must be measured, Axios said.
US warships in the Mediterranean Sea shot down a handful of missiles during Iran’s attack on Israel, The Washington Post reported.
On Tuesday, the IRNA news agency reported that US Navy ships failed to intercept missiles fired by Iran towards Israel.
Flights Cancellation
All flights in Iran have been canceled until Thursday morning in connection with the situation in the Middle East, Jafar Yazerlu, a spokesperson for Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization, said on Wednesday.
On Tuesday, the spokesperson said that Iran had grounded all flights until Wednesday morning over security concerns.
“In order to maintain flight safety and [taking into account] the situation in the region, all flights throughout the country are canceled until 5 a.m. [local time, 01:30 GMT] tomorrow,” Yazerlu was qouted as saying by the Tasnim news agency.
Israel struck with hypersonic missiles – Iran
RT | October 1, 2024
Iran used hypersonic missiles for the first time during its strikes on Israel on Tuesday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has announced.
Iran launched several salvos of missiles in what the IRGC called a response to the recent Israeli killings of the heads of Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as an Iranian general who was in Lebanon.
Fattah-2 hypersonic missiles were used in the attack to bypass the Israeli radars, Iranian media reported on Tuesday evening, citing the IRGC.
The Guard claimed that 80-90% of the missiles used in ‘Operation Honest Promise 2’ struck their targets, among which were the Tel Nof air base near Tel Aviv and the Netsarim area near Gaza, where they said “a large number of Israeli tanks” was destroyed.
Iran also claimed to have destroyed a number of Israeli F-35 fighters at the Nevatim air base, located halfway between Beersheba and the Dead Sea.
The Israel Defense Forces estimated the number of incoming missiles at 180 and acknowledged that “a few hits” have been recorded. According to the IDF, the majority of the missiles were successfully intercepted. The only reported casualty on the ground is a Palestinian man, who was killed by a falling missile fragment near Jericho in the West Bank.
Tuesday’s attack was bigger in size and scope than the April strike, the first-ever such attack by Iran, in which scores of ballistic missiles and drones bombarded Israel in reprisal for an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Hypersonic missiles fly anywhere from five to 25 times the speed of sound. Iran unveiled its first such missile, the Fattah-1, last June. The Fattah-2 version was revealed to the public in November. Neither had been used in combat before.
According to Tehran, the missile attack was the response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, who was killed in Tehran back in July. Iran also cited the killings of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and IRGC Major General Abbas Nilforoshan in Lebanon last week.
Israel has vowed to strike back, while Iran has warned that any further attacks will be met with further force.
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Argentina’s Javier Milei sells out his country for Israel
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From the Archives
Mutually Assured Delusion (MAD)
By Judith Curry | Climate Etc. | November 5, 2013
Groupthink: A pattern of thought charaterized by self-deception, forced manufacture of consent, and conformity to group values and ethics.
Groupthink: Collective Delusions in Organizations and Markets, by Roland Benabou, published in the Review of Economic Studies. Benabou also has a talk (ppt slides) on this subject.
First, a definition of groupthink (from the ppt slides):
Janis (1972)’s eight symptoms [of groupthink]:
- illusion of invulnerability
- collective rationalization
- belief in inherent morality
- stereotyped views of out-groups
- direct pressure on dissenters
- self-censorship
- illusion of unanimity
- self-appointed mind guards
Sound like any groups that we know? … continue
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