NATO invades Russia?
Colonel Douglas Macgregor & Prof Glenn Diesen | August 22, 2024
Has the thin line between proxy war and direct war now been eliminated? I spoke with Colonel Douglas Macgregor as NATO’s direct involvement in the war is evident with its involvement in the invasion of Russia.
Russia has restrained itself to a large extent as retaliating against NATO could trigger another world war and possible nuclear exchange, although the failure to retaliate emboldens NATO and results in subsequent escalations. Even Zelensky referred to the failure of Russia to respond to the invasion of Kursk as a reason for why NATO should not fear stepping over more Russian red lines. Colonel Macgregor suggests that the assumption of the US and NATO being all-powerful will continue to contribute to reckless escalations in the war against Russia – but also in the Middle East, and against China.
Most Ukrainian, Western and Russian observers seemed to recognise during the first days of the invasion of Kursk that it was a mistake. Ukrainian troops emerged out of well-defended frontlines and could be easily targeted in the open and with poor supply lines. As this is a war of attrition, it is likely a huge mistake to throw away Ukraine’s best soldiers and NATO’s military equipment on territory that is not strategic and cannot be held. However, the propaganda machine has since been turned on and the war is now sold to the Western public as a great opportunity to improve negotiation power, to develop a buffer zone, and to humiliate Putin – although none of these arguments can stand up to scrutiny.
The Ukrainian and NATO invasion of Kursk has changed the war completely as the Ukrainian causalities have increased dramatically, the Ukrainian defensive lines in Donbas are now collapsing even faster, and NATO’s role in the war is no longer ambiguous. This is all happening as internal divisions in NATO are surfacing, and the US/Israel will likely trigger a regional war in the Middle East.
Iran will hit Israel, ball is in US-Israeli court
By M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | Indian Punchline | August 22, 2024
There is a Zen proverb — ‘If you want to climb a mountain, begin at the top.’ All the show of contrived enthusiasm by US President Joe Biden and CIA Director William Burns over an Israel-Hamas deal on the Gaza war cannot obfuscate the grim reality that unless and until Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu greenlights it, this is a road to nowhere.
But what did Netanyahu do? On the eve of the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s arrival in Tel Aviv on Sunday to press the flesh and cajole Netanyahu to cooperate, the latter disdainfully ordered yet another air strike in the central town of Deir Al-Balah in Gaza, killing “at least” 21 people, including six children. Biden had emphasised only the previous day that all parties involved in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations should desist from jeopardising the US-led diplomatic efforts to halt the war and secure a deal to return hostages and achieve a ceasefire to end the bloodshed.
And this was even after a ‘senior administration official’ who has been actively involved as negotiator — presumably, Burns himself — laboured to convey in a special briefing from Doha that the negotiations had reached an inflection point. The crux of the matter is that the western leaders have a maximum pressure strategy toward Iran to exercise restraint while they don’t have the moral or political courage to tackle Netanyahu, who is invidiously undermining the Doha process because he is simply not interested in a ceasefire deal that may lead to his removal from power, investigation to pin responsibility for October 7 attacks, revival of court cases against him and possible jail sentence if convicted.
Indeed, Tehran is sceptical that peace cannot come to Gaza under American mediation but taking care not to create any new facts on the ground while the Doha negotiations are under way. Tehran has adopted a mature, responsible attitude not to derail the Doha process. The point is, Iran is keen that the horrific war that the Israeli state unleashed in Gaza must be somehow brought to an end. Over 40,000 people have died so far.
That said, Hamas’ response to the US’ “bridging proposal” at Doha meeting will be a major determinant for Tehran. From available indications, there are serious disagreements over Israel’s continued military presence inside Gaza, particularly along the border with Egypt, over the free movement of Palestinians inside the territory, and over the identity and number of prisoners to be released in a swap. Both Israel and Hamas have signalled that a deal will be difficult.
On the other hand, the new Iranian government under Masoud Pezeshkian has highlighted his desire for a constructive engagement with the West and prioritises the removal of western sanctions. Pezeshkian’s nominee for the foreign ministry Abbass Araghchi reiterated these policy parameters in his testimony at the Majlis on Sunday while seeking parliament’s approval for his appointment.
Dispelling speculations that Araghchi, a career diplomat who is reputed to be a moderate, may face difficulty to garner support in the conservative-majority parliament, the Majlis recognised his high professionalism by unanimously approving his name as Iran’s next foreign minister in a vote instantaneously.
There is much food for thought here for the strategists in the White House. Suffice to say that what Pezeshkian’s predecessor late Ebrahim Raisi left behind as his foreign policy legacy will continue to guide the new government. That signals a high level of national consensus. Succinctly put, in all these years since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, there has not been a more conducive setting in the power calculus in Tehran for a pragmatic engagement with the West. It will be extremely unwise for Washington to overlook the window of opportunity to engage with Iran.
On the other hand, Tehran’s grit to push back western bullying is also at an all-time high level. The bottom line is that Iran will not submit to western diktat. In today’s circumstances, therefore, it is unrealistic to expect Tehran not to react to the Israeli aggression of July 31. Iran’s sovereignty was violated and its response will be strong and decisive, — and as a deterrent for the future as well.
No amount of muscle-flexing by Washington will frighten Tehran. The national unity, unlike in the US, is a crucial factor. The stunning endorsement by the Majlis of the entire list of cabinet ministers proposed by President Masoud Pezeshkian shows that there is no daylight between the different branches of state power. All indications are that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and Pezeshkian are on the same page — and this message has gone down the echelons of policymaking and state power in Tehran.
The contrast with the disarray in Israel’s confrontational domestic politics couldn’t be sharper.
Therefore, Iran will do what it considers necessary and an obligation — and a matter of national honour. The Deputy Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, General Ali Fadavi said on Monday, “We will determine the time and manner of punishment (of Israel). The usurping Zionist regime committed a great crime by assassinating Martyr Haniyeh, and this time it will be punished more severely than before.”
In a statement to The Wall Street Journal, Iran’s UN mission said any response must both punish the Israeli regime and deter future strikes in the country, but also “must be carefully calibrated to avoid any possible adverse impact that could potentially influence a prospective ceasefire.
“The timing, conditions, and manner of Iran’s response will be meticulously orchestrated to ensure that it occurs at a moment of maximum surprise; perhaps when their eyes are fixed on the skies and their radar screens, they will be taken by surprise from the ground — or, perhaps, even by a combination of both.”
The Iranian statement from the UN podium in New York is a message addressed to the White House that the ball is in the US-Israeli court. Interestingly, it coincided with the toned down White House readout on Biden’s call with Netanyahu on Wednesday, where Biden flagged the “defensive U.S. military deployments” and stressed the urgency of bringing the ceasefire and hostage release deal to closure and discussed upcoming talks in Cairo to remove any remaining obstacles.” It stands to reason that Tehran and Washington are communicating with each other.
Clearly, against such a heavily nuanced backdrop, the paranoia about a regional war is unwarranted, since neither Iran nor the US wants war. As for Israel, a small country, it simply lacks the capability to go to war with Iran armed with three submarines stacked with nuclear missiles as its strategic assets.
The stunning disclosure of Hezbollah’s vast network of underground missile network in southern and central Lebanon is a reality check for the Israeli political elite and settler communities on what they are up against.
As the former Israeli war minister Avigdor Lieberman puts it, Israel is engaged in a war of attrition, exactly as the Iranians wanted, having succeeded in uniting the resistance fronts. Lieberman pointed out that the agony of the indeterminate waiting for Tehran’s retaliatory operation is in itself an achievement for Tehran and the Axis of Resistance.
READ MORE: Iran finesses its deterrence strategy, Indian Punchline, August 12, 2024
Iran dismisses ‘unreasonable’ joint statement by Australia, New Zealand
Press TV – August 21, 2024
Iran has dismissed a joint statement by Australia and New Zealand calling on the Islamic Republic not to retaliate the recent crimes of Israel.
Foreign Ministry Spokesman Nasser Kana’ani said on Wednesday that such a move once again demonstrates the double standards these countries employ when it comes to fundamental human rights, international law, and regional developments.
Kana’ani said the “unreasonable request” in the joint statement undermines Iran’s inherent right to punish the attacker and deter future attacks.
The Iranian official was referring to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political bureau chief of the Palestinian resistance movement Hamas, in Tehran on July 31.
“In a situation where the United Nations Security Council, due to the unconditional support of the United States for the Zionist regime, could not even issue a statement condemning the terrorist act of the regime in assassinating Haniyeh … the unreasonable request of Australia and New Zealand means ignoring Iran’s inherent right to punish the aggressor and create deterrence against Israel’s adventures.”
In the joint statement, Australia and New Zealand expressed “grave concern about the prospect of further escalation across the region” and called on Iran to “refrain from further destabilizing actions in the Middle East, and cease its ongoing threats of a military attack against Israel.”
Kana’ani said the statement is a real example of turning a blind eye to the facts and misleading global public opinion. He said the main source of threat to regional and international peace and security is the “racist Zionist regime,” which enjoys broad Western support.
He said the crimes of the Israeli regime in Palestine and the region are taking on new dimensions every day, and now the regional stability is under grave threat due to the criminal behavior of the Zionist regime, which violates the United Nations Charter and international law.
“The approach of Australia and New Zealand in selectively choosing international norms not only does not help reduce tensions in the region but also encourages the rogue Israeli regime and its destabilizing actions in the region.”
Iran Shuts Down German Soft Power Tool Institute in Tehran in Apparent Tit-for-Tat Move
By Ilya Tsukanov – Sputnik – 21.08.2024
Diplomatic relations between Iran and Germany have worsened progressively over the past five years thanks to Berlin’s growing propensity to walk lockstep with Washington on an array of issues, from the Iran nuclear deal to attempts to meddle in Iran’s internal affairs, and an effort to chide Tehran for its retaliatory strikes on Israel in April.
The German Foreign Ministry summoned Iran’s ambassador on Tuesday after the Islamic Republic shuttered two branches of German Language Institute of Tehran (formerly the Goethe Institute), which receive funding from the German government and operate under the auspices of the German Embassy.
Iran’s judiciary said it moved to close the “illegal centers” for “breaching” local laws, “committing various illegal actions and extensive financial violations.”
The German Foreign Office slammed the move, saying it was “in no way justifiable,” and that that the institute “is a popular and recognized meeting place where people put a lot of effort into learning languages under difficult circumstances.” The institute’s work is “intended to strengthen the connection between the people of Iran and Germany,” the Foreign Office assured.
The language centers’ closure comes a month after Berlin raided and shut down Islamic Center Hamburg, a Shia Islamic cultural center accused by Berlin of “promoting extremism and radical Islamic ideology,” “spreading aggressive antisemitism,” and providing support for Lebanese political and militia movement Hezbollah, which German authorities deem a “terrorist organization.”
German police also raided 53 affiliated properties across eight German states, banning affiliates in Berlin, Munich and Frankfurt, confiscating assets and shutting down four separate mosques.
German harassment and monitoring of Islamic Center Hamburg goes back to the 1990s. In 2022, its deputy director was expelled from Germany over alleged communications with Hezbollah. In 2023, after the start of the Gaza war, Greens politician Jennifer Jasberg demanded the center’s closure, saying she did not want Hamburg to serve as “a breeding ground for hatred against Israel.”
Iranian authorities blasted Islamic Center Hamburg’s closure as an act of Islamophobia, a boon for terrorism and a move “reminiscent of the racist policies of the Nazi regime.” Iranian acting foreign minister Ali Baqeri slammed the measure as an “unjustified move” that “flouts all principles of freedom of religion and thought.”
Iranian authorities said their investigation into the German Language Institute is ongoing, and indicated that other German state-affiliated entities are being looked at.
While it paints itself as “autonomous and politically independent” and engaged only in the exchange of culture and language, Germany’s Goethe institute has been characterized by some as a tool of soft power for Berlin. Russia froze Goethe Institute bank accounts in Russia in 2023 in a tit-for-tat move after Berlin moved to block the accounts of the Russian House of Science and Art in Berlin several months prior. Moscow said it would unblock the accounts “only after the complete and unconditional unfreezing of the bank accounts” of the Russian center.
The Goethe center was opened in Iran in 1958 under the auspices of the West German government, but saw its activities restricted after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and banned completely in 1987. The institute was reopened in 1995 under the German Language Institute moniker.
Israel expects US and other allies to help bomb Iran
RT | August 17, 2024
Israel’s Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, has stated that his country expects not only the United States but also its allies, including Britain and France, to assist in offensive operations against Tehran in the event of direct conflict.
Katz made these comments during a meeting with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy and French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourne in Jerusalem on Friday, according to a Hebrew-language statement from his office.
”Israel expects France and Britain to publicly clarify to Iran that it is unacceptable for it to attack Israel, and that if Iran attacks, the US-led coalition will join Israel not only in defense but also in an attack against significant targets in Iran,” the statement said, as cited by the Times of Israel.
Katz reiterated in a post on X that he made it “clear” to his colleagues that they should publicly announce their countries “will stand with Israel not only in defense but also in striking targets in Iran.”
The French and British diplomats downplayed these assertions, with Sejourne telling reporters that it would be “inappropriate” to discuss any “retaliation or preparation for an Israeli retaliation” amid diplomatic efforts to negotiate a deal to end the Gaza war. A joint French-British statement following the meeting also made no mention of any anti-Iran coalitions.
“We have urged Iran and its proxies to stand down the ongoing threats of military attack against Israel. We have also stressed to all parties that the spiral of escalating reprisals must end,” they said in their only reference to Tehran.
The meeting in Jerusalem occurred shortly before the latest round of indirect ceasefire talks ended without breakthroughs, though there were promises to return to the negotiating table next week. The war between Israel and Hamas has dragged on for 10 months since the militant group staged a deadly incursion, resulting in approximately 1,100 deaths and around 200 hostages. The massive Israeli response has claimed over 40,000 Palestinian lives, according to Gaza health officials.
The risk of wider conflict in the Middle East was drastically exacerbated by the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh, who served as the Palestinian armed group’s lead negotiator in indirect talks with Israel. He was killed in Tehran on June 31, hours after attending the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iran promised to inflict a “harsh punishment” on Israel, which has neither acknowledged nor denied any involvement in the killing.
The US has deployed additional warships and a submarine to the Middle East to protect the Jewish state from potential attacks, but it remains unclear whether Washington has agreed to any plans to bomb Iran.
In April, when Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel in retaliation for the bombing of its embassy in Damascus, US fighter jets and warships helped intercept many of the incoming projectiles. However, this was a purely defensive operation, with no direct counterstrike on targets inside Iran.
Israeli economy in chaos in anticipation of Iran, Hezbollah responses
Al Mayadeen | August 15, 2024
The Israeli occupation’s anticipation of Hezbollah and Iranian response to Israeli assassinations carried out in late July has pushed the regime into “economic chaos”, Israeli media outlets reported.
The economic affairs commentator for Israeli broadcaster Channel 13 underlined that the past two weeks have “exhausted” the Israeli market. Several economic events were canceled in Israeli-occupied territories, while others were reduced due to the state of anxiety experienced among settlers.
Economic activities have also been affected by the operational measures issued by Israeli authorities, in preparation for retaliatory strikes by Hezbollah and Iran.
The Israeli commentator highlighted the significant losses that affected the Israeli tourism sector, largely linked to international flight cancellations to Israeli-occupied airports. An increasing number of Israeli settlers have been stranded in other countries due to the wide-scale cancelation of flights. The possibilities of responses launched by the Axis of Resistance have also impacted hotels and other hospitality and tourism businesses in the northern Israeli-occupied territories, which may be directly affected by future strikes.
The commentator warned that these challenging conditions and operational measures, which are also impacting the medical and energy sectors, could persist well into September.
If the wait continues into next month, the Israeli educational sector will also be severely affected by operational measures, forcing institutions to “maneuver within combat scenarios.”
Israeli regime’s actions against civilians ‘blatant example of terrorism’: Iran envoy

Iran’s permanent representative to the UN Office in Geneva, Ali Bahraini.
Press TV | August 14, 2024
Iran’s permanent representative to the United Nations Office in Geneva has called for Israeli institutions to be recognized as “terrorists,” stressing that the regime’s inhumane actions against Palestinian civilians constitute “a clear example of terrorism.”
Ali Bahraini made the appeal in three separate letters to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk, the UN special rapporteur on extra-judicial summary or arbitrary executions, Morris Tidball-Binz as well as UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in the occupied Palestinian territories Francesca Albanese on Wednesday.
According to Article 2.1 of the international convention to prevent the financing of terrorism, the institutions of “the Zionist regime” must be identified as terrorists, he said, adding that “the actions carried out by the Israeli regime against civilians and Palestinian areas are a clear example of terrorism.”
Bahraini also noted that from Iran’s point of view, Hamas is “a liberation organization” that fights for the freedom and independence of Palestine.
Therefore, he said, the assassination of Hamas leaders is aimed at undermining the morale of the Palestinian people in their struggle to end the occupation and achieve the right to self-determination.
The Iranian diplomat also emphasized that by eliminating the Palestinian leaders, Israel seeks to destroy the Palestinian political identity and the inalienable right of the Palestinian people to have an independent state.
He further referred to the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICC), which recognizes the right of Palestinians to self-determination, and described any action that violates this right as illegal.
Elsewhere in his remarks, Bahraini strongly denounced as “a gross violation of international law” the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the capital Tehran.
He also urged UN officials to condemn the assassination decisively and to document it in their future reports.
The top Iranian diplomat also stressed the need for more efforts to achieve justice for the Palestinian people and to hold the Israeli regime accountable for its crimes.
Haniyeh, who was in Tehran to attend the swearing-in ceremony of Iran’s newly-elected President Masoud Pezeshkian, alongside other Axis of Resistance leaders, was martyred in an attack early on July 31.
Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has warned the Israeli regime of a “harsh response” for Haniyeh’s assassination, calling it the Islamic Republic’s duty to avenge the Palestinian resistance leader’s blood.
Explainer: What are the scenarios and potential targets of retaliatory strike on Tel Aviv?

By Ivan Kesic | Press TV | August 13, 2024
The stage is set for the retaliatory military operation against the Israeli regime in response to the cowardly assassinations of top-ranking Axis of Resistance commanders in Tehran and Beirut.
Although the nature of the retaliation and its precise timing remains shrouded in mystery, the embattled regime in Tel Aviv, already grappling with an internal political and social crisis, has been paralyzed with fear.
Illegal settlers have also been fleeing the occupied Palestinian territories in panic, anticipating a response that pales in comparison with Iran’s ‘Operation True Promise’ that followed an attack on Iran’s consulate building in the Syrian capital of Damascus in April.
There are scores of military sites in Tel Aviv that could be targeted to punish the Israeli regime for terrorist attacks that claimed the lives of Hamas political bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr.
Our analysis shows the most likely targets in Tel Aviv could be the centers affiliated with the Israeli spy agency Mossad, which had a key role in the assassinations of Haniyeh and Shukr.
This analysis is supported by the fact that the Ramon and Nevatim air bases of the Israeli regime were successfully targeted in the retaliatory military action in April since the warplanes that attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus had taken off from them.
Taking that into consideration and the fact that simultaneous attacks in Tehran, Beirut and Iraq were carried out with the order and cooperation of the highest Israeli political, military and intelligence structures, their headquarters are primary targets.
The likelihood of these targets is further supported by a report by the Al-Hadath news channel, which revealed that employees of four intelligence and military agencies of the Israeli regime were evacuated on Thursday from their sites in Tel Aviv.
These headquarters are located in the densely populated metropolitan Tel Aviv, known as the Gush Dan, where half of the settler population of the Zionist entity lives, in contrast to the two aforementioned air bases in uninhabited desert areas.
Among them, an area of exceptional importance is Kirya, a district in central Tel Aviv, which is home to many administrative buildings and the military intelligence Camp Rabin that serves command, administrative, communications, and support functions for the Israeli military apparatus.
This camp has served as the headquarters of the armed forces of the Zionist entity since its establishment in 1948 and is encircled on all sides by densely populated civilian areas.
The main building in the camp is the Matcal Tower, which houses the offices of the top brass of the Israeli military, surrounded by other high-rise military facilities, such as the communications office Marganit Tower.
The Kirya district, known as the “Israeli Pentagon,” is much larger in scope than it looks on the map or is officially recognized, due to underground facilities and classified offices in nearby areas.
Beneath the military complex is the Bor (literally pit), the heavily fortified underground national military command center that is located a few blocks away from the former prime minister’s office, which has been moved now to occupied Jerusalem al-Quds.
The Bor is accessed through a large steel door that is sealed shut in the event of a non-conventional attack, and at the entrance, there is a big sign reminding visitors to remove the batteries from their cellphones before entering.
Long stairs lead deep into the operations rooms where regime officers prepare, organize and discuss future wars with their neighbors, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine, including the ongoing genocidal war against Gaza.
Even deeper, there is the chief of general staff’s conference room with a U-shaped table and a wall lined with plasma TV screens, where top officers meet almost weekly for highly classified discussions and a review of operational plans.
This facility is relatively well protected from attacks by short-range missiles, cruise missiles and kamikaze drones, but not from larger ballistic missiles with deep penetration power and a one-ton high-explosive warhead, so it is a high-value target.
Headquarters of intelligence services are classified, without official addresses, and most often masqueraded as civil function buildings.
In recent decades, the Israeli regime authorities have started selling land in Kirya, on which many “multipurpose” high-rises have been built, due to its attractive location in the center of the city.
This “multi-purpose” most often implies the regime and some other function, with the former containing multi-levels of the regime, military and intelligence offices.
The wider metropolitan area of Tel Aviv is also home to numerous factories, military bases and other regime buildings that can be the target of retaliatory strikes.
At least three large military facilities on the edges of the Tel Aviv metropolitan area are also possible targets, especially in case of new Israeli attacks and further escalation.
First among them is the operational headquarters of military intelligence unit 8200, located in the north near the city of ‘Herzliya’, where the collected information is processed and further forwarded to military strategists and other Israeli intelligence agencies.
Another site is Palmachim Airbase, located a few kilometers south of the metropolitan area, the main base for the Israeli regime’s drone, missile and space programs.
Finally, there is also a vast military zone around the Tel Nof and Sdot Micha air-missile bases, between Tel Aviv and occupied Jerusalem al-Quds, where numerous squadrons, special forces, missile silos and bunkers, arms warehouses, including nuclear warheads, are stationed.
Iran: E3 demands are public support for Israeli crimes
Al Mayadeen | August 13, 2024
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani responded to the E3’s (UK, France, Germany) statement on Tuesday, underscoring that Iran is “steadfast and resolute in exercising its right to protect its national security and territorial integrity” and “does not seek permission from any external party.”
In a press statement, Kanaani added that the European Troika’s demand for Iran not to respond to the “Israel’s” and punish it, “a crude demand that lacks any political logic and contradicts international laws and resolutions.”
He emphasized that the European trio’s statement reflects a public endorsement of the Zionist entity’s crimes and regional terrorism. He added that “if the European Trio genuinely seeks to promote peace in the region, it must, at the very least, condemn the Zionist entity’s actions and its genocidal activities in Gaza.”
Kanaani also pointed out that “the indifference of Western countries towards the crimes of the Israeli entity and its ongoing genocide of the defenseless Palestinian people, and the failure to hold it accountable, has encouraged it to escalate its atrocities.”
He explained that “Germany, France, and Britain have not taken any measures to halt the Zionist entity’s ongoing brutal crimes, and international organizations have similarly failed to deter these actions,” stressing that “both the West and the Security Council must take decisive responsibility to stop the severe Israeli atrocities in Gaza.”
On Monday, the leaders of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement in which they called on Iran and its allies, likely the Ansar Allah movement in Yemen and the Hezbollah Resistance movement in Lebanon, to refrain from taking any actions that would “further escalate regional tensions and jeopardize the opportunity to agree on a ceasefire and the release of hostages.”
The statement held them responsible “for actions that jeopardize this opportunity for peace and stability” while disregarding the actions committed by “Israel”
Iran finesses its deterrence strategy
By M. K. BHADRAKUMAR | Indian Punchline | August 12, 2024
The latest Israeli spin has it that Iran cannot make up its mind whether to retaliate or not for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 28 while on a visit to Tehran for the inaugural of President Masoud Pezeshkian.
The hypothesis here is that there must be a standoff between Pezeshkian and hardliners of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) with the new president pushing back against any aggressive strategy against Israel.
Prima facie, it is a ridiculous spin. But Iran rebutted it, nonetheless, with the Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani stating as recently as on Saturday night that Tehran “will make the aggressor Israeli regime pay the price for its aggression in a legitimate and decisive action.” Those were carefully chosen words.
But how come Iran didn’t act for a fortnight already? Several factors are in play here. First, Pezeshkian has not yet formed his government. He submitted his list of proposed ministers to the Parliament for approval only yesterday. The executive branch of the government is carrying on with day-to-day functioning.
Nonetheless, according to Russian media, Pezeshkian did speak about Iran’s retaliatory strike against Israel at a meeting with the visiting Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu on July 5 in Tehran.
That said, do not rule out that there could be some calibration in the timing. After all, Israel is in panic and reports say people stay awake at night fearing Iranian attack. According to IRNA, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for all his bravado, evacuated four of Israel’s important intelligence and security bases in Tel Aviv.
Second, Iran will not act as “spoiler” when regional states and the US are pulling all stops to pick up the threads of the Gaza ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel. The fact that Israel agreed to the talks on Thursday suggests that Netanyahu also sees advantages in returning to the negotiating table.
Of course, Iran will also be carefully weighing the scale of its attack on Israel. After all, Haniyeh was killed in a covert operation in which there was no Iranian casualty.
However, the clincher is going to be the progress in the upcoming talks. Iran may altogether postpone the operation if the Israeli side gives guarantees at the talks not to invade Lebanon and withdraws troops from the Gaza Strip.
Tehran could potentially reconsider its position if a radical change occurs in the situation in the region following the conclusion of a truce between Hamas and Israel. Expectations are running high. And, make no mistake, Tehran has a much closer equation with Yahya Sinwar than it had with Haniyeh.
Therefore, the high-stakes diplomacy this week leading to the talks scheduled for Thursday to secure a hostage and ceasefire deal in Gaza becomes an inflection point.
Iran’s UN mission in New York said in a statement on Friday, “Our priority is to establish a lasting ceasefire in Gaza. Any agreement accepted by Hamas will also be recognised by us.” The statement reiterated Iran’s right to self-defence against Israel but also added, “However, we hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire.”
Tehran is intensely conscious that the outcome of the Hamas-Israel talks (with the participation of CIA Director William Burns) in terms of the release of American hostages is the stuff of Joe Biden’s presidential legacy as much as it holds the potential to burnish the prospects of the Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris in the November election.
Jordan is acting as go-between to enable Washington and Tehran to sensitise each other their respective problematic borderlines. Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi visited Tehran on August 4 for talks with Ali Bagheri. They met again on the sideline of the OIC extraordinary meeting in Jeddah on August 7 (which was by the way, a diplomatic coup for Tehran.) In between, Biden spoke with King Abdullah of Jordan.
The White House readout said Biden and Abdullah “discussed their efforts to de-escalate regional tensions, including through an immediate ceasefire and hostage release deal. The President thanked His Majesty for his friendship, and affirmed unwavering US support for Jordan as a partner and ally in promoting regional peace and security.”
Meanwhile, Biden is using all channels available to moderate Iran’s attack on Israel. The Americans have also openly dissociated themselves from the killing of Haniyeh. They have reportedly conveyed to Tehran that an escalation is fraught with the risk of a US-Iran conflict, which is avoidable.
Finally, in the range of discourses over Iran’s retaliation, what is overlooked generally is that Iranians invariably have a strategy, unlike Israelis who resort to knee-jerk reactions. Therefore, the ‘big picture’ becomes important here.
Iran is not looking for war, especially when it has done exceedingly well so far to cut losses and turn the table on Israel in a cost-effective manner. Israel’s international image is in the mud and not all the freshwater in the Sea of Galilee can wash off the filth.
Iran’s number one priority will be to have the western sanctions removed. Supreme Leader Khamenei’s deal with Pezeshkian quintessentially narrows down to improving the economy by getting rid of sanctions and making it possible for Iran to gain its rightful place in the international order by using its vast resources optimally.
All major pronouncements by Pezeshkian have signalled his prioritisation of Iran’s relations with the West. Quite obviously, Pezeshkian is walking a tight rope, as Javad Zarif’s announcement of his resignation as the president’s deputy for strategic affairs shows. Zarif is reportedly peeved that the steering committee responsible for candidate selection picked only three out of the 19 names he had proposed for the cabinet posts!
Be that as it may, Abbas Araghchi, introduced as the new Minister of Foreign Affairs, had served for 8 years as the deputy to Zarif during Hassan Rouhani’s presidency, playing a key role in the nuclear negotiations (JCPOA) with the Obama administration. The European powers see Araghchi as a ‘moderate.’ Indeed, he makes an effective interlocutor for Tehran in western capitals — and it is the clearest signal so far that Iran’s foreign policy trajectory is leaning toward constructive engagement of the West.
Smart thinking involves the brain getting precedence over brawn. That is where Iran scores over the die-hard Zionists in Tel Aviv who are still wallowing in the culture of the Nakba.
Iran shrewdly assessed at a very early stage that contradictions were inevitable in Biden-Netanyahu equations post-October 7 and the Greater Israel agenda and the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy are pulling in opposite directions.
Equally, Iran has drawn the correct conclusions out of the standoff in April where it displayed its formidable military capability to inflict pain on Israel while also prompting the US to prevail upon the latter not to react! In the entire chronicle of US-Iran tango since 1979, such a thing never happened before.
Why should Tehran give up that pathway leading to the rose garden? For sure, Tehran will inflict even greater pain on Israel than in April. But, fundamentally, the 900-pound gorilla in Tel Aviv has to be tamed with a smart admixture of hard and soft power — and, it also involves the West. And to that end, Iran will restrain itself and remain a nuclear threshold state.
Subliminal Message from Beijing to Washington amidst the War Drums
By Lama El Horr – New Eastern Outlook – 12.08.2024
Anger is a pyromaniac. Under its influence, we tend to provoke a reaction from our adversary, which serves as fuel to fan the flames, thus increasing the legitimacy of the angry inferno. The method is convenient for practicing accusatory inversion and making the one reacting to aggression the instigator of hell.
Today, Washington is angry. The object of this anger is China’s spectacular rise to power, which is increasingly shaking the foundations and legitimacy of US domination of the world. This American anger desperately needs pretexts to both justify and intensify hostilities against Beijing. The United States is therefore seeking to provoke a violent reaction from its main geopolitical rival: China.
So far, this American strategy of one-upmanship has had the opposite effect to that intended. Whether in Beijing’s immediate vicinity, in the Middle East, Africa or Europe, American pressure against China and its partners has reinforced Beijing’s pacifist vocation, to the point of making it a key diplomatic player in the resolution of the world’s most acute crises. Much to the chagrin of Washington’s thirst for fire.
An escalation of tensions meticulously organized by Washington and its allies
Washington’s strategy of escalating tensions aims to target the fulcrums that make the multipolarity advocated by Beijing and Russia a geopolitical reality. Fomenting conflicts involving Beijing’s strategic partners is the path the United States seems to have chosen to curb China’s rise to power and harm its strategic investments.
When Washington allowed Israel to assassinate the Hamas political leader in charge of negotiations, on Iranian soil and in the wake of the Beijing Declaration, the efforts of Chinese diplomacy to unify the Palestinian factions were also targeted. When Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus in defiance of the Vienna Convention, China, which has a strategic partnership with Iran and Syria, was also targeted. When Washington and its allies bomb Yemen to remove any obstacle to the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian territories, China, which worked for the rapprochement between Riyadh and Teheran, then between Riyadh and Sanaa, is also targeted. When the members of the UN Security Council adopt a resolution on the need for a ceasefire in Gaza, and the United States declares that this resolution is non-binding, China, which urges respect for international law and whose strategic interests are threatened by regional insecurity, is also targeted.
The latest developments concerning the Western Sahara bear striking similarities to those in West Asia. As with the Palestinian question, the Western bloc is flouting international law, which enshrines the Saharawi people’s right to self-determination – except that here, it’s the China-Algeria economic partnership, and the Russia-Algeria security partnership, that seem to be in Washington’s sights. And let’s not forget that Algerian gas is supposed to relieve Europeans of anti-Russian sanctions, and that Algeria continues to speak out on behalf of the Palestinian people.
Likely to inflame tensions on North Africa’s western flank, the Western Sahara is a godsend for Washington at a time when Algeria and its southern neighbors (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso) have embarked on a process of decolonizing their development and security model – a process that is about to extend to other countries that have also lived under Western tutelage since independence, such as Chad and Nigeria.
Like Israel against Iran, Ukraine against Moscow or Seoul against Pyongyang, France has been assigned the role of executor of the US strategy to contain China, through the demonization of Algeria. Paris is aided in its mission by the Abraham Accords, concluded between Morocco and Israel under the aegis of the Trump administration, which contribute to reinforcing NATO’s presence in North Africa – in a less brutal manner, for the time being, than in the former Yugoslavia.
This strategy of Atlanticist escalation borders on the grotesque when it comes to Venezuela, a BRICS candidate country and one of the world’s leading oil and gas reserves. After decades of outrages suffered by Caracas – attempted coups d’état, media killing of legitimate leaders, suffocation of the economy by apartheid-style sanctions – the United States has still not achieved its goal: to take control of the country’s strategic resources and install its military bases there. As in the case of Iran, the assistance of Beijing and Moscow was crucial in preventing Venezuela’s collapse.
The Western bloc’s decision to resume the affront of not recognizing the elected president has just been severely thwarted by Beijing and Moscow. Invited to the BRICS Summit to be held in Russia in October, Nicolas Maduro announced that he could entrust the exploitation of his country’s strategic resources to members of this structure. Caracas seems to be warning Washington: if you don’t curb your greed, you run the risk of losing everything.
On China’s doorstep, the outbreak of violence that forced the resignation of Sheikh Hasina, Prime Minister of Bangladesh – another BRICS candidate country – raises questions about Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy. The former head of government’s statements concerning the intentions of “a certain country” to build a military base on the island of Saint Martin in the Bay of Bengal, and also to create a Christian state that would include parts of Bangladesh, Myanmar and even India, offer a reading of events quite distinct from what is being said by the Western media and Muhammad Yunus, the Bangladeshi Nobel Prize winner who has just been entrusted with the head of the interim government.
One power struggle, two world views
Through its leaders, its satellite countries and its megaphone, the mainstream media, the United States strives to portray East-West tensions as a conflict of hierarchy between two models of governance: liberal democracies, synonymous with the West, and autocracies, synonymous with emerging powers. China, on the other hand, offers a different interpretation: the reason for global geopolitical tensions is the questioning of the hierarchy of power in a world where the overwhelming majority of people are challenging American hegemony.
Despite the risk of confrontation it raises, the exacerbation of tensions between Beijing and Washington certainly has one merit: it shows that the two powers have two diametrically opposed conceptions of the world, of their place in it, and of the rules that are supposed to govern relations between states.
Just as it cannot conceive of its own sovereignty without respecting the sovereignty of other states – which implies the primacy of the principle of non-interference and the rejection of any hegemonic power – China also considers that there is an interdependence between its development and that of other nations. This is the founding idea of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, complemented by the vision of a Community of Destiny for Mankind.
This is the bedrock of Chinese political philosophy, in which the notions of development, security and peace are inextricably linked. The BRI and China’s Security, Development and Civilization initiatives are the best illustrations of this concept of civilizational interdependence. In Beijing’s view, we’re all piloting the same ship: it’s up to each and every one of us to be a good pilot, a good teammate and a good visionary, because we’ll have to work collectively to achieve prosperity, and collectively to avoid the pitfalls. The success of such a project depends on keeping the peace on board.
On the contrary, the United States believes that its sovereignty depends on the subordination of other states to its power, and that its continued development depends on obstructing the economic, technological and military independence of other global players. This denial of peoples’ right to self-determination betrays a supremacist conception of power – not inconsistent with imperialist ideology – and logically raises objections throughout the world.
Despite these objections, judging by its militaristic headlong rush, the American administration continues to endorse the statement attributed to Caligula: ‘Let them hate me, so long as they fear me!’ Yet today, with the exception of EU members and a handful of other satellite states, the United States no longer commands the fearful respect it once did in the golden age of its omnipotence – despite the increasingly exorbitant budget allocated to its arms industry.
Behind Beijing’s placid posture, a message to Washington
In this explosive geopolitical context, Washington is seeking to drive Beijing up against the wall, by limiting the Asian giant’s choice to two options. Either China persists in avoiding confrontation – in which case Washington will inevitably gain ground – or China sinks into the spiral of American pyromania – in which case Beijing will turn away from its own geopolitical priorities, in favor of those of its rival. In other words, Washington is offering Beijing the choice between capitulation and surrender.
China doesn’t see it that way, and has its sights set on a third way: pacifism without capitulation. Whether it’s Taiwan, the Korean peninsula, tensions in the South China Sea, conflicts between NATO and Russia, or between the US and Iran, China persists in advocating the peaceful resolution of disputes. In support of this position, Beijing has woven a network of inclusive partnerships, as opposed to exclusive military alliances.
Clearly, this pacifist plea reflects the Chinese authorities’ strategic decision to refrain from knee-jerk reactions to Washington’s military provocations. China’s challenge is to break the United States’ militaristic logic, without indulging its strategy of conflagration.
For the time being, Beijing has decided to meet this challenge with silence. A good illustration of this is the conflict in the Middle East and Gaza. China’s silence has prompted the Western bloc to reveal its cards and discredit itself. ‘Freedom’, ‘Human Rights’, ‘Democracy’ and ‘International Law’ are suffering the same carnage as the Palestinian people.
Beijing’s silence also keeps Washington in the dark about the military capabilities of Beijing’s and Moscow’s partners. The extra-judicial assassinations of Palestinian, Lebanese and Iranian leaders, marked by the seal of international illegality, are the very demonstration of the United States’ frustration at the military calm of its geopolitical adversaries.
Added to this are the uninterrupted requests for membership of the BRICS and the SCO, the hallmarks of the multipolar world. This simple fact means that the tornado of hostilities towards Beijing has not succeeded in diverting the world majority from its aspiration to emancipate itself from the American hegemonic order. Now, if living under the American yoke is intolerable for Iran, Algeria or Venezuela, it’s easy to imagine the degree of irritation the world’s second-largest economy must feel.
But ultimately, as the NATO-Russia conflict has shown, the United States cannot conceive that the deterrent power of its rivals can be applied to itself. It was only by confronting NATO militarily, through Ukraine, that Russia’s deterrent power could be restored. The provocations against Moscow revealed that Washington did not possess all the details of Russia’s military architecture. Today’s outcome of this conflict, revealing the overwhelming superiority of the Russian army, suggests that Moscow, like Beijing and Teheran, had shown unlimited strategic patience before resorting to the military option. Unfortunately, the USA and its NATO allies discovered this at the same time as they discovered Moscow’s firepower.
Today, when Washington seems to be saying: We run the world, and China is part of the world, China seems to be replying, in the manner of Aimé Césaire: Strength is not within us, but above us.
“An Intricate Fabric of Bad Actors Working Hand-in-Hand” – So is war Inevitable?
By Alastair Crooke | Strategic Culture Foundation | August 12, 2024
Walter Kirn, an American novelist and cultural critic, in his 2009 memoir, Lost in the Meritocracy, described how, after a sojourn at Oxford, he came to be a member of ‘the class that runs things’ – the one that “writes the headlines, and the stories under them”. It was the account of a middle-class kid from Minnesota trying desperately to fit into the élite world, and then to his surprise, realising that he didn’t want to fit in at all.
Now 61, Kirn has a newsletter on Substack and co-hosts a lively podcast devoted in large part to critiquing ‘establishment liberalism’. His contrarian drift has made him more vocal about his distrust of élite institutions – as he wrote in 2022:
“For years now, the answer, in every situation—‘Russiagate,’ COVID, Ukraine—has been more censorship, more silencing, more division, more scapegoating. It’s almost as if these are goals in themselves – and the cascade of emergencies mere excuses for them. Hate is always the way,”
Kirn’s politics, a friend of his suggested, was “old-school liberal,” underscoring that it was the other ‘so-called liberals’ who had changed: “I’ve been told repeatedly in the last year that free speech is a right-wing issue; I wouldn’t call [Kirn] Conservative. I would just say he’s a free-thinker, nonconformist, iconoclastic”, the friend said.
To understand Kirn’s contrarian turn – and to make sense of today’s form of American politics – it is necessary to understand one key term. It is not found in standard textbooks, but is central to the new playbook of power: the “whole of society”.
“The term was popularised roughly a decade ago by the Obama administration, which liked that its bland, technocratic appearance could be used as cover to erect a mechanism for a governance ‘whole-of-society’ approach” – one that asserts that as actors – media, NGOs,corporations and philanthropist institutions – interact with public officials to play a critical role not just in setting the public agenda, but in enforcing public decisions.
Jacob Siegel has explained the historical development of the ‘whole of society’ approach during the Obama administration’s attempt to pivot in the ‘war on terror’ to what it called ‘CVE’ – countering violent extremism. The idea was to surveil the American people’s online behaviour in order to identify those who may, at some unspecified time in the future, ‘commit a crime’.
Inherent to the concept of the potential ‘violent extremist’ who has, as yet, committed no crime, is a weaponised vagueness: “A cloud of suspicion that hangs over anyone who challenges the prevailing ideological narratives”.
“What the various iterations of this whole-of-society approach have in common is their disregard for democratic process and the right to free association – their embrace of social media surveillance, and their repeated failure to deliver results …”.
Aaron Kheriaty writes:
“More recently, the whole of society political machinery facilitated the overnight flip from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris, with news media and party supporters turning on a dime when instructed to do so—democratic primary voters ‘be damned’. This happened not because of the personalities of the candidates involved, but on the orders of party leadership. The actual nominees are fungible, and entirely replaceable, functionaries, serving the interests of the ruling party … The party was delivered to her because she was selected by its leaders to act as its figurehead. That real achievement belongs not to Harris, but to the party-state”.
What has this to do with Geo-politics – and whether there will be war between Iran and Israel?
Well, quite a lot. It is not just western domestic politics that has been shaped by the Obama CVE totalising mechanics. The “party-state” machinery (Kheriaty’s term) for geo-politics has also been co-opted:
“To avoid the appearance of totalitarian overreach in such efforts”, Kheriaty argues,“the party requires an endless supply of causes … that party officers use as pretexts to demand ideological alignment across public and private sector institutions. These causes come in roughly two forms: the urgent existential crisis (examples include COVID and the much-hyped threat of Russian disinformation) – and victim groups supposedly in need of the party’s protection”.
“It’s almost as if these are goals in themselves – and the cascade of emergencies mere excuses for them. Hate is always the way”, Kirn underlines.
Just to be clear, the implication is that all geo-strategic critics of the party-state’s ideological alignment must be jointly and collectively treated as potentially dangerous extremists. Russia, China, Iran and North Korea therefore are bound together as presenting a single obnoxious extremism that stands in opposition to ‘Our Democracy’; versus ‘Our Free Speech’ and versus ‘Our Expert Consensus’.
So, if the move to war against one extremist (i.e. versus Iran) is ‘acclaimed’ by 58 standing ovations in the joint session of Congress last month, then further debate is unnecessary – any more than Kamala Harris’ nomination as Presidential candidate needs to be endorsed through primary voting:
Candidate Harris told hecklers on Wednesday, chanting about genocide in Gaza, ‘to pipe down’ – unless they “want Trump to win”. Tribal norms must not be challenged (even for genocide).
Sandra Parker, Chairwoman of the political advocacy arm for the three thousand members of Christians United for Israel (CUFI) was advising on correct talking points, the Times of Israel reports:
“The rise of Republican far right-wingers who spurn decades of (bi-partisan) pro-Israel orthodoxies, favouring isolationism and resurrecting anti-Jewish tropes is alarming pro-Israel evangelicals and their Jewish allies… The break with decades of assertive foreign policy was evident last year when Sen. Josh Hawley derided the “liberal empire” that he dismissively characterised as bipartisan “Neoconservatives on the right, and liberal globalists on the left: Together they make up what you might call the uniparty, the DC establishment that transcends all changing administrations””.
At the CUFI talking points conference, the fear of increased isolation on the Right was the issue:
“You’re going to see that adversaries will see the U.S. as in retreat” – should isolationists get the upper hand: Activists were advised to push back: Should lawmakers claim that NATO expansion is what triggered Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: “Should anybody begin to make the argument that the reason the Russians have moved in on Ukraine – is because of NATO enlargement – can I just say that this is the age-old ‘blame America trope,’” the Chair advised the assembled delegates.
“They have the strain of isolationism that’s – ‘Let’s just do China and forget about Iran, forget about Russia, let’s just do one thing’ – but it doesn’t work that way,” said Boris Zilberman, director of policy and strategy for the CUFI Action Fund. Instead, he described “an intricate fabric of bad actors working hand in hand”.
So, to get to the bottom of this western mind-management in which appearance and reality are cut from the same cloth of hostile extremism: Iran, Russia and China are ‘cut from it’ likewise.
Plainly put, the import of this “behavioural-engineering enterprise (it no longer having much to do with the truth, no longer having much to do with your right to desire what you wish – or not desire what you don’t wish)” – is, as Kirn says: “everyone is in on the game”. “The corporate and state interests don’t believe you are wanting the right things—you might want Donald Trump— or, that you aren’t wanting the things you should want more” (such as seeing Putin removed).
If this ‘whole of society’ machinery is understood correctly in the wider world, then the likes of Iran or Hizbullah are forced to take note that war in the Middle East inevitably may bleed across into wider war against Russia – and have adverse ramifications for China, too.
That is not because it makes sense. It doesn’t. But it is because the ideological needs of ‘whole of society’ foreign-policy hinge on simplistic ‘moral’ narratives: Ones that express emotional attitudes, rather than argued propositions.
Netanyahu went to Washington to lay out the case for all-out war on Iran – a moral war of civilisation versus the Barbarians, he said. He was applauded for his stance. He returned to Israel and immediately provoked Hizbullah, Iran and Hamas in a way that dishonoured and humiliated both – knowing well that it would draw a riposte that would most likely lead to wider war.
Clearly Netanyahu, backed by a plurality of Israelis, wants an Armageddon (with full U.S. support, of course). He has the U.S., he thinks, exactly where he wants it. Netanyahu has only to escalate in one way or another – and Washington, he calculates (rightly or wrongly), will be compelled to follow.
Is this why Iran is taking its time? The calculus on an initial riposte to Israel is ‘one thing’, but how then might Netanyahu retaliate in Iran and Lebanon? That can be altogether an ‘other thing’. There have been hints of nuclear weapons being deployed (in both instances). There is however nothing solid, to this latter rumour.
Further, how might Israel respond towards Russia in Syria, or might the U.S. react through escalation in Ukraine? After all, Moscow has assisted Iran with its air defences (just as the West is assisting Ukraine against Russia).
Many imponderables. Yet, one thing is clear (as former Russian President Medvedev noted recently): “the knot is tightening” in the Middle East. Escalation is across all the fronts. War, Medvedev suggested, may be ‘the only way this knot will be cut’.
Iran must think that appeasing western pleas in the wake of the Israeli assassination of Iranian officials at their Damascus Consulate was a mistake. Netanyahu did not appreciate Iran’s moderation. He doubled-down on war, making it inevitable, sooner or later.
