Gaza suffers near-total information blackout
RT | October 27, 2023
Internet and cell phone services stopped working in Gaza on Friday night, after Israel “expanded” its military operation against Hamas militants in the Palestinian enclave.
The largest telecommunications provider in Gaza, Paltel, has announced “a complete severance of all communications and Internet services” due to intensified Israeli strikes.
“The intense bombing in the last hour caused the destruction of all remaining international routes linking Gaza to the outside world,” the company said.
Netblocks, a company that tracks internet connectivity globally, confirmed the information blackout, calling it “the largest single disruption to internet connectivity in Gaza since the beginning of the conflict and will be perceived by many as a total or near-total internet blackout.”
International media outlets, including RT, have partially lost contact with their crews and stringers on the ground. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) told news organizations that Israel “cannot guarantee your employees’ safety, and strongly urge you to take all necessary measures for their safety,” according to a letter sent to Reuters and AFP.
The head of RT Arabic, Maya Manna, said there was no contact with correspondents and photographers operating in the Palestinian enclave as of Friday evening. The sole message came from an RT stringer in the area, describing a “very violent bombing.”
“I don’t know what to do with my children and my family. Everyone is afraid, everyone is terrified, and there is screaming everywhere in the Gaza Strip,” Masoud Abu Jarash, a local reporter, told RT.
According to an NBC News crew member, who was also able to message colleagues, “all internet, electricity and everything” has been cut off. “The situation we’re in is difficult, so difficult and very dangerous. We’re being extensively shelled by artillery and by air,” the unnamed staffer said.
The UN children’s agency also lost contact with their colleagues in Gaza, with UNICEF chief Catherine Russel saying she was “extremely concerned about their safety and another night of unspeakable horror for 1 million children in Gaza.”
The international healthcare charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF) said there was no contact with some of their Palestinian colleagues.
“We are particularly worried for the patients, medical staff and thousands of families taking shelter at Al Shifa hospital and other health facilities,” MSF said, expressing deep concern over the situation regarding one of Gaza’s biggest medical centers.
Israel has accused Hamas of turning hospitals into “headquarters for their terror,” referring specifically to Al Shifa, and even published an “illustrative video” which supposedly points out the “different locations in and under the hospital which are being used to plan and implement terrorist activities.”
Hamas claims that by cutting off communications from Gaza, Israel is attempting to “cover up the crimes of the occupation without any oversight or accountability,” and tries to “create an image of victory,” a senior official, Osama Hamdan, told Al Jazeera.
The Gods Are Going Against the Chosen People – Mammon Against Israel, Mars Against the Pentagon
By John Helmer | Dances with Bears | October 27, 2023
The Palestinian strategy against Israel is aimed at destroying Israel’s capacity to survive in its present state in a long war.
This means attacking the invincibility of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and their so-called Iron Dome defence; this began with the cross-border offensive on October 7, and continues with daily drone and artillery attacks on targets inside Israel, as well as resistance to IDF incursions in Gaza.
The plan also means exposing the weakness of the state’s infrastructure and economy; extending the battlefield across all of Israel’s territory – the ports, power plants and electricity grid, communications, and financial markets — making the cost of occupation of the Arab territories unendurable. In a long war, two of Israel’s leading exports earning more than 40% of the state’s trade — diamonds and tourism — face ruin.*
“The Israelis cannot withstand one year of fighting in a war,” Iraq’s President Saddam Hussein told his general staff in 1983 during a discussion of planning for a regional war of the Arabs against Israel.** In the forty years since then, the evolution of military technology and tactics has expanded the power of small national liberation armies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, of proxy principals like Iran, and of the strategic balancing role of Russia and China. Their combination now has shortened the Zionist state’s endurance in a long war, and that of its proxy principal, the US.
The Israelis and the Jewish diaspora comprehend this reluctantly. For them, the short war must be correspondingly shorter. This means the genocide of at least a million Palestinians in lives and displacement.
The war to do that has now become an international war – and this is a war the US cannot sustain. As a Pentagon insider said publicly this week, “because there are so many draws on the logistics and support infrastructure of the Pentagon, we’re not prepared to go in in a concerted way. What we are seeing right now is death by a thousand cuts. Our adversaries know we are stretched so they are going to make us stretch even more, so we can respond even less.”
The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Maria Zakharova, acknowledged the point in Moscow on Thursday: US naval, air force, and marine reinforcements deployed around Israel and Gaza are “American tactics to strengthen their own security (this is how it should be interpreted) at someone else’s expense.” They are backfiring on Washington’s capacity to defend US forces in the Mediterranean, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and in land bases in Syria, Iraq and Jordan. “On the contrary,” Zakharova added, the US military deployment “will further rock the situation in the Middle East, create additional tension that can spill out beyond the region.”
Zakharova’s warning came in the Moscow afternoon. By then Russian Foreign Ministry officials had held meetings with a Hamas delegation, and officials from Iran, Egypt, and Kuwait. Across the city at the same time, President Vladimir Putin held telephone talks with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Kremlin communiqué reported: “Russia and Turkiye have practically overlapping positions.”
Israeli and US-led media censorship and propaganda are concealing the breadth of impact of the Palestine warfighting plan, and the deepening military and economic weaknesses of the Israeli state.
The longer the war continues, the plainer the evidence is on the battlefield that the single-state scheme of Israel and the US is no longer possible. Whether Israel and the US can be compelled to withdraw to the 1967 borders and a new Palestinian state created with partition, demilitarisation, and international security guarantees – the basis of the Russian position announced again on Thursday in Moscow — remains to be fought over.
In this long war, the gods do not favour the Chosen People.
Following with precision the battlefield action is impossible in the Israeli and Anglo-American press. Reporting of operations, and of Israeli and US casualties, is being suppressed entirely or delayed for days, if not weeks.

According to this NBC television report, broadcast on October 24, there were at least 24 US combat casualties following drone attacks on or about October 18 at the Al-Tanf base in Syria and the Al-Asad base in Iraq. Reporting of naval action in the Red Sea, when the USS Carney reportedly engaged Houthi missiles over several hours, has been changing since the initial news flashes of October 19. Read more here. In a new report of October 24, Israeli and US casualties in a joint raid inside Gaza were revealed: “in the last 24 hours or so, some of our Special Ops forces and Israeli Special Ops forces went into Gaza to reconnoiter, to plan for where they might want to go to free hostages and make an impact, and they were shot to pieces and took heavy losses, as I understand it. I think that is where we are headed and I don’t see that as a win for Israel in any way, shape, or form. And I certainly think it is very dangerous for us”. In current reporting by Al Mayadeen, daily strikes against US bases in Iraq and northeastern Syria are documented.
Tracking the electric war and infrastructure strikes by Hamas and Hezbollah is also difficult. They commenced with cyber attacks on Israel’s electricity generation plants and power grids; these have been followed by missile and drone strikes. “The ground has been laid for attacks on the Israeli grid,” a US military source claims. “I believe drones will come first, then missiles. We may even see commando raids.”
Israel’s seaports are also under constant attack. Ashkelon, which is closest in range to Gaza, has been closed. Eilat may have been the target of the Houthi missile strike which was engaged last week by the USS Carney. Ashdod, which accounts for about 40% of incoming and outgoing Israeli seaborne trade, and Tel Aviv port have been targeted. The result is a tenfold surge in war risk insurance for vessels and cargoes, and the curtailment of international vessel movement in and out of the Israeli ports; there are reports that shipping is down 30% in Ashdod compared to the pre-war volume. Evergreen, the Taiwanese container shipping company, declared force majeure for Ashdod on October 17, diverted one vessel to Haifa, and halted future shipping into both ports. “We advise evaluating each port visit in Israel on a case by case basis and implementing appropriate precautions in ship contingency plans,” recommends a maritime industry alert bulletin.
Chevron’s offshore Tamar gas field has been shut down. The source produces 70% of the gas required to fuel Israel’s electricity generation needs. Not a single Anglo-American media source has noticed that Israel is at risk of losing its principal energy source to drone or missile attack. “After what the Americans and Germans did to blow up the Nordstream pipelines,” comments a Moscow industry source, “what is holding Hamas back from hitting Tamar, or Hezbollah from the other Israeli gas fields?”
Left: Chevron’s Tamar gas production platform is located at sea 24 kilometres west of Ashkelon. Right: click to enlarge map of Israel’s offshore gas sources.
A Moscow source comments that “in Israel, the US and the UK will be able to bring in supplies without a very big risk of US ships being attacked. The risk is to the ports and bases, not to supplies from the Med[iterranean]. The Greek and Cyprus bases will come in very useful. Israel will not face severe logistical issues as long as it is on the offensive. If its settlements start getting cut off, encircled or penetrated then it is a different matter.”
The indirect economic impacts of the war have also not been calculated or discussed in the mainstream media or international business newspapers. The leading export revenue earners are diamonds at above $9 billion per annum, and tourism which had been peaking at $8.5 billion in 2019. Counted together, diamonds and tourism amount to more than 40% of the state’s export earnings.
The Covid-19 pandemic and worldwide travel restrictions cut Israel’s tourism revenue fourfold, and this had been recovering over 2022 and the tourist season this year. This has now stopped, although for the time being Hamas rocket launches on Ben Gurion airport near Tel Aviv have been intercepted.
October 12, 2023 — source: https://www.youtube.com/.
ISRAEL TOURISM REVENUE TRAJECTORY, 1999-2022
Source: https://www.macrotrends.net/
Israel’s high-tech machine exports and pharmaceuticals may also be affected if electricity supply, internet networks, and transportation are damaged.
The cumulative effect will be the outcome which the international ratings agencies have been warning the international banks and financial markets to prepare for. “In our view,” Fitch reported to clients on October 17, “the combination of Israel’s dynamic, high-value added economy, the record of resilience to regional conflict, [and] preparedness for military confrontations… make it unlikely a relatively short conflict largely confined to Gaza will affect Israel’s rating…. the risk that other actors hostile to Israel, such as Iran and Hezbollah, could join the conflict at scale has risen significantly… a major escalation could result in negative rating action. This could take the form of a wider and longer conflict, resulting in a sustained fiscal drain, both from higher spending and lower tax collection, as well as loss of human and material capital and severe economic disruption.”
How short, and also how long, Israel’s warfighting plan will take depends on American and international acceptance, not only of the genocide intended for the Palestinians of Gaza, but of the Novichok-type chemical warfare planned by the IDF and the Pentagon for the Hamas tunnel system in Gaza City. After several years in which the US and UK have fabricated claims that Syria and Russia were using prohibited gas warfare weapons, the Israelis have reportedly persuaded the US to participate in the tunnel attack operation. The Pentagon is denying the reports.
Source: https://www.middleeasteye.net
Russian and US military sources are already confirming the logistical supply problems facing Israeli and US forces at present, when the war is just three weeks long. Greek sources are reporting the Souda Bay, Crete, base has already reached its capacity for incoming US navy and air force supply and support operations; the spillover is facing growing Greek protest at the Elefsina air base near Athens.
A Cyprus source says the movement of US and British aircraft into and out of the Dekhelia and Akrotiri airbases is accelerating, and there is an air and seaborne shuttle between the Cypriot ports of Larnaca and Limassol and the USS Gerald Ford carrier group at sea to the southwest of the island.
The lengthening of the supply lines required to support the USS Eisenhower carrier group in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf and the shore bases needed to support it are politically sensitive already; and the risks of Houthi and other attacks, along with domestic Arab crowd protests, will intensify for these bases in the Arab sheikhdoms the longer the war against Israel reveals Arab and Iranian warfighting skill and resistance.
Converting these gains into a negotiating framework for Israeli-American retreat is the task Russian officials are attempting in silent coordination with the Chinese, and in semi-open negotiations in Moscow this week. In its first move outside the region since the war began, Hamas has visited Moscow for negotiations, led by US-educated Moussa Mohammed Abu Marzouq.
Zakharova confirmed the start of the talks with Hamas on Thursday. She said: “I can also say and confirm that representatives of the relevant Palestinian movement are in Moscow. As for contacts, we will inform you additionally.” She has also disclosed that since the war began, nine thousand Russian passport holders have returned to Russia from Israel; and that at least fifteen Russian passport holders among the Hamas hostages have been killed in the IDF airstrikes.
At the same time as Marzouq’s meetings, Husam Badran issued a statement to the Russian state news medium, Sputnik. “Russia,” Badran said, “is able to play an important role in ending the war between Israel and the Gaza Strip, and delivering aid to the Palestinian exclave. Hamas values Russia’s role on the international stage, especially use of veto in the UN Security Council against the United States. But Russia can play a greater role in ending the aggression against our people in the Gaza Strip and applying international pressure to deliver urgent aid to our people in the Gaza Strip.”
What Hamas means by “greater role” for Russia has not been disclosed publicly yet. It is known that Hamas is willing to negotiate the release of “non-military” hostages, including Israelis holding Russian passports, through Iran. This is conditional on the IDF lifting its siege on Gaza and allowing sufficient supplies into all parts of the territory.
The “military hostages” are being held in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. There are more than 6,000 of the latter; there may be fewer than 200 hostages in Gaza, as up to 50 have been killed by Israeli bombing.
The Russian Foreign Ministry statement on the talks with Hamas is less revealing. According to the Sputnik release, “Russia has discussed release of hostages and evacuation of Russians from the Gaza Strip during a meeting with a delegation of Hamas in Moscow on Thursday.” A member of the political office of the Islamic resistance movement Hamas, Abu Marzouq, is in Moscow. Contacts took place with him in continuation of the Russian line for the immediate release of foreign hostages located in the Gaza Strip, and issues related to ensuring the evacuation of Russian and other foreign citizens from the territory of the Palestinian enclave were also discussed.”
At the same time on Thursday – unnoticed and unreported by the western media – Russian officials held several negotiating sessions with an Iranian emissary, Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kyani. In three separate Foreign Ministry releases, meeting communiqués were issued for Kyani’s meetings with deputy ministers Mikhail Bogdanov, Sergei Ryabkov, and Mikhail Galuzin. “The need for the cessation of hostilities in and around the Gaza Strip and the prompt provision of humanitarian assistance to the affected Palestinian population was confirmed,” Bogdanov’s communiqué said. “It was stated that Moscow and Tehran are determined to continue close coordination of efforts in the interests of stabilizing the situation in the Middle East.”
It is unclear if the talks also included the Hamas officials in a three-party format. During the day there were also Foreign Ministry negotiations in Moscow with Kuwaiti and Egyptian officials.
At the Kremlin it has been announced that President Putin spoke with Turkish President Erdogan to discuss the war. According to the Kremlin release, “the presidents reviewed the active efforts undertaken by Russia at the UN Security Council, as well as the corresponding political and diplomatic steps taken by Turkiye to stop the bloodshed and ensure the unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid to those in need. It was emphasised that Russia and Turkiye have practically overlapping positions, focused on implementing the well-known two-state solution, which provides for the creation of an independent Palestine coexisting with Israel in peace and security.”
In her briefing for the press, Zakharova dismissed the US moves so far. “We do not consider the US presence in the Middle East as contributing to the stability of the situation in the region. Exactly the opposite. Washington’s earlier attempts to monopolise the Middle East settlement process, ignoring the true causes of the protracted conflict, have largely led to the current catastrophic consequences… This situation has an absolutely clear and understandable road, a ‘road map’ for settlement. It is not simple, but complex, painful, but leading to the solution of the issue, not its aggravation.”
“Of course, no air defence systems, arms supplies, materiel injections into some ‘security complexes’ will help resolve this situation. Today’s lesson must be learned. How many Americans have deployed there (their bases, experts, satellites), nothing has worked to prevent a bloody scenario, of which both Palestinians and Israelis are victims.”
[*] With support from Israel and influential Jewish diamantaires in New York and Tel Aviv, a scheme of sanctions is being prepared by the US Government to stop Russian raw diamonds, produced by Alrosa, from being sold into the Belgian, Israeli, and US markets. The Russian goods are to be tagged “blood diamonds” because of the war in the Ukraine. However, now that Israel is destroying the Palestinian population of Gaza, the “blood” tag can be applied to the Israeli diamond cutting industry and to the Jewish diamond trade abroad. Support for the anti-Russian sanction, and also for the IDF operations against the Palestinians can be found in Rapaport.com news reports. “Rapaport stands with Israel”, the publication and its owner Martin Rapaport declared on October 26, “and has undertaken all the necessary effort and costs for the October Single Stone Auction to help the Israeli market continue to conduct business as best as possible during this difficult time. Rapaport believes that continuing to do business in Israel during the war is a victory over the brutal Hamas terrorists, and will help Israel win the war.” In another editorial for the diamond trade, Rapaport proposes “to boycott Iran and all other supporters of the Hamas terrorist organization.” Rapaport also cites religious authority for liquidation. “In the words of G-d (Exodus 17:14): ‘I will utterly blot out the memory of Amalek from under heaven.’May the words of G-d be done, here and now.” Quietly, Russia’s state diamond interests dictate a strategy for protecting against this double-edged Israeli policy.
[**] Saddam Hussein is quoted in the chapter on US plots against him in Iraq – see The Jackals’ Wedding: American Power, Arab Revolt, Ch. 6.
Israeli troops launch new ‘limited incursion’ into Gaza
The Cradle | October 27, 2023
Israeli forces launched another limited ground incursion into the Gaza Strip overnight on Thursday, the second in a row following an incursion the night before.
The small-scale incursions carried out so far are meant to test the waters for the upcoming ground invasion Israel has announced.
“The IDF conducted strikes on Hamas terrorist targets over the last 24 hours. IDF ground troops, fighter jets, and UAVs struck: Anti-tank missile launch sites, Command and control centers, Hamas terrorist operatives,” the Israeli army said in a statement.
“The troops exited the area and no injuries were reported,” it added.
Israeli troops also carried out a limited incursion into Gaza the night before, on 25 October.
The incursion aimed to help prepare forces for the “next stages” of the war and the anticipated large-scale offensive on the besieged enclave.
“IDF tanks and infantry struck numerous terrorist cells, infrastructure, and anti-tank missile launch posts. The soldiers have since exited the area and returned to Israeli territory,” a military statement said on 26 October.
A previous Israeli attempt to enter the strip last weekend was met with fierce resistance by Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades.
Israeli troops crossed the border fence by several meters for a preparatory incursion into the Gaza Strip. The Al-Qassam Brigades ambushed the troops, destroying two army bulldozers and a tank, leaving several soldiers seriously wounded, and forcing them to withdraw.
Retired US Army colonel Douglas Macgregor said this week that US special forces went into Gaza with the Israeli army to “reconnoiter” and plan for the release of prisoners.
“They were shot to pieces and took heavy losses, as I understand,” Macgregor added.
Israel announced plans to launch a full ground invasion of the Gaza Strip following the launch of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on 7 October.
The stated goal is to “eradicate” Hamas. Israel says it intends to find and destroy the group’s extensive network of tunnels and wipe out its infrastructure while its army attacks from the air and sea.
However, Tel Aviv has continued to delay the operation, coinciding with reports that Washington is unconvinced of Israel’s readiness for a ground invasion. Nonetheless, US special forces have been advising and coordinating with the Israeli army to prepare.
“The military leadership has already finalized an invasion plan, but [Benjamin] Netanyahu has angered senior officers by refusing to sign off on it — in part because he wants unanimous approval from members of the war cabinet he formed after the Oct. 7 attack,” the New York Times (NYT) reported on 26 October, citing two anonymous sources who have been present at Israeli cabinet meetings.
“Analysts believe that Mr. Netanyahu is wary about unilaterally giving the go-ahead because, with public confidence in his leadership already decreasing, he fears being blamed if the operation fails,” NYT added.
According to a recent poll, a majority of Israelis believe that Netanyahu must bear the responsibility for the massive security and intelligence failure which led the success of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.
Israel announced on 25 October that it is waiting for further equipment deliveries from the US, but continues to maintain that the full ground invasion is imminent.
Analysts have said Israel’s goal of “eradicating” Hamas is overambitious.
According to The Cradle’s Hasan Illaik, such an operation will drag Israel into a massive multi-front war which it would not be able to bear the cost of.
Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades have heavily prepared themselves to face Israel on the ground.
Israel reportedly planning to use banned chemical weapons in Gaza
By Lucas Leiroz | October 27, 2023
There seems to be no ethical limits to the IDF’s anti-humanitarian practices against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip. According to local sources, the Israeli military is planning a chemical attack against Hamas’ underground tunnels. In addition to being illegal, the practice seems anti-strategic because with this maneuver the IDF could also kill Israeli citizens kept as prisoners of war by Hamas in the bunkers.
Rumors began to spread by local Palestinian correspondents, citing intelligence sources. According to the report, Israeli and American forces were working together to flood the bunkers with chemical weapons, mainly nerve gases. The objective would be to cause severe symptoms in Palestinian soldiers, facilitating an IDF invasion.
“The plan hinges on the element of surprise so as to decisively win the battle, using internationally forbidden gases, particularly nerve gas, and chemical weapons. Large quantities of nerve gas would be pumped into the tunnels (…) Inhaled or absorbed through the skin, most nerve gases can kill in anywhere between one to 10 minutes by crippling the respiratory centre of the central nervous system and paralysing the muscles around the lungs”, source said.
The sources also claim that Israel is postponing its incursion into the field to try to provoke an element of surprise when the invasion finally takes place. The objective is to deceive the enemy, in accordance with the elementary principles of military science, inducing the Palestinians to believe that the invasion will not occur at any time. So, when it happens, it will be something unexpected and capable of causing severe damage to the enemy.
Obviously, Israel and the US deny the accusations and claim that they are nothing more than unsubstantiated rumors. However, no solid argument is given to actually deny the “rumors”. On the contrary, Israeli military even used racist rhetoric to delegitimize the reports, stating that believing in an Arab official would be a sign of “ignorance.”
“It is utmost ignorance and naivety to rely on a chatter by some Arab official with regard to this matter and to take it seriously (…) Usually there should be logic [behind any military action]. What’s the point of releasing gas into these underground tunnels?”, Yaakov Kedmi, an Israeli military expert said. In the same sense, Sabrina Singh, a spokesperson for the US Department of Defense commented on the case stating: “This is not true and this reporting is inaccurate.”
However, it is important to emphasize that this is not the first time that journalistic reports citing sources familiar with Israeli military have suggested that Israel will use anti-humanitarian methods to attack Hamas’ tunnels. For example, a few days ago, US investigative journalist Seymour Hersh stated that occupation forces plan to use seawater to flood bunkers in order to kill Hamas members. In this type of operation, as well as in the use of gas, there would be many risks to hostages and prisoners of war, but, according to Hersh and his sources, Israel’s only real objective is to kill Hamas soldiers, with little concern for hostages.
“A well-informed American official told me that the Israeli leadership is known to be considering flooding Hamas’s vast tunnel system before sending in its troops, many of whom have had only a few weeks of training in the maneuvers and coordination required for the invasion (…) Where the estimated 200-plus hostages are is an open question. Israel is only talking about the end of the Hamas regime”, Hersh said.
In fact, these rumors and reports suggest that something serious is probably actually being planned by the IDF. There does not yet appear to be a consensus among Israeli officials on what techniques should be used against Hamas, but they are evidently thinking about different strategies to overcome the challenge of confronting Hamas’ complex system of tunnels. Israel wants to prevent Gaza from becoming its “Vietnam” but cannot find an efficient combat strategy to achieve this goal.
It is necessary to remember that Israel has been spreading accusations against Hamas recently, alleging that the Palestinian organization plans to use chemical weapons. It is unlikely that Hamas has this type of weapon, as the group’s capabilities do not allow for the manufacture of sophisticated equipment. Furthermore, the only country that publicly has stocks of chemical weapons is precisely the US, which is Israel’s biggest ally. It is possible then that Tel Aviv will use these illegal weapons in Gaza, not only to launch them in the tunnels, but also to carry out a false flag operation against Hamas and legitimize further escalations.
The only thing that seems clear so far is that the Zionist government remains convinced in its objective of carrying out a process of ethnic cleansing, collective punishment and actual massacre in Gaza. The possible use of chemical weapons will only worsen the international image of the Israeli regime, as this type of equipment is banned by international law.
Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant.
Biden Inches Towards Military Disaster in Middle East
By Ilya Tsukanov – Sputnik – 27.10.2023
The US has dramatically beefed up its presence in the Middle East, sending two carrier strike groups, thousands of Marines, multiple THAAD and Patriot missile batteries, and more warplanes to the region amid the Palestinian-Israeli flare-up. But these forces can’t guarantee victory in case of a shooting war, says military observer Andrei Martyanov.
Tehran issued its strongest warning to Washington to date over the Palestinian-Israeli crisis on Thursday, cautioning that the US wouldn’t be able to escape if the conflict continues unabated.
“I say frankly to the American statesmen, who are now managing the genocide in Palestine that we do not welcome [an] expansion of the war in the region,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in New York during an emergency United Nations General Assembly session. America “will not be spared from this fire” if the crisis endures, Amir-Abdollahian emphasized. “It is our home, and West Asia is our region. We do not compromise with any party and any side, and we have no reservation when it comes to our home’s security.”
Tehran has so far moderated its response to US and Israeli actions during the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, ignoring efforts by Tel Aviv to goad the country into a military response by attacking Iranian allies in Syria and Lebanon, and snubbing threats by loudmouth officials and lawmakers to bring the war home to “Iran’s backyard.” Instead, Tehran has joined countries including Russia, China, Brazil and Turkiye in calling for an immediate ceasefire.
Netanyahu cabinet minister Nir Barakat threatened last week to cut off the Iranian “head of the snake” and launch attacks against the Islamic Republic if Hezbollah tried to open a second front against Israel from the north. Meanwhile, President Biden on Wednesday said he had issued a “warning” to Iran’s supreme leader that if Iran “continue[s] to move against” American troops in the Middle East, the US “will respond, and he should be prepared.”
But as observers with an understanding of Iran’s military capabilities observe, tackling Iran would be unlike anything either Israel or the US have ever attempted, with the Islamic Republic’s combination of natural defensive geography, powerful indigenous military-industrial complex, advanced missile and drone programs, and readiness to defend its interests even against much more powerful foes, making it an extremely difficult target.
US Carriers in Eastern Med ‘Sitting Ducks’ for Missiles
The centerpiece of the US forces deployed to the Middle East amid the Palestinian-Israeli crisis are the USS Gerald Ford and USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike groups. Each armada theoretically has enough firepower to level a small country, with each carrier carrying a complement of up to 90 combat aircraft, and the giant warships themselves flanked by between four to six cruise missile-equipped destroyers.
The armadas are certainly no threat to be taken lightly, but do have important weaknesses when stacked up against countries with modern missile capabilities, transforming into “white elephants” from a bygone era, says veteran military analyst and best-selling author Andrei Martyanov.
“In terms of their real power projection,” carriers “are big fat sitting targets against modern weaponry such as anti-ship missiles and hypersonic missiles,” Martyanov told Sputnik’s New Rules podcast.
“In this respect, they are not a real asset, but rather a liability against any major power such as Russia or China,” the observer explained. “In this particular case, those aircraft carriers and their battle groups, which usually comprise two or three ‘Aegis’-carrying destroyers – they are not really any more a serious military asset except for their ‘fear factor’…They could be sunk or basically disabled, and that’s pretty much it,” he said.
Israel-Palestine War: Is the US Preparing to Attack Iran?
The same can be said even for a mid-tier military power like Iran, given its vast arsenal of thousands of medium and long-range ballistic and cruise missiles, and recent development of a hypersonic missile known as the Fatah. Many of these weapons are theoretically in range of US warships, plus dozens of US bases dotting the Middle East – some of them conveniently just across the Persian Gulf separating Iran from the Arab Gulf oil states.
“Iran will be able to deliver both an asymmetric and a very symmetrical” response, Martyanov observed. “Iran has a vast number of highly sophisticated, highly developed ballistic missiles… And they have a vast number of cruise missiles. [The response] can be very symmetrical. And every single air base, military base of the United States will be under attack.”
Combined with carriers’ vulnerabilities is their massive cost, Martyanov said, pointing out that the new Ford-class carrier alone costs some $13 billion, plus $5-6 billion for its complement of aircraft.
“So you have a single weapon, a single carrier, a single ship, which carries on itself almost $20 billion worth of military assets and could be taken out by two or three missiles such as Zircon or Kinzhal. Can you imagine the impact, apart from fact of them having a very serious cultural and mental influence within the United States? The loss of a single ship can escalate…to the nuclear threshold because of the political, emotional, cultural and of course military impact of such a loss. Don’t forget, you also have more than 6,000 people onboard this carrier,” the observer stressed.
Even the Russian-made Yakhont anti-ship missile possessed by Syria – which can reach up to Mach 3 at the terminal stage of flight and has a range of some 300 km, can pose a serious challenge to the American carrier groups, Martyanov said, not to mention the various missiles possessed by Hezbollah – which together force the US to stay further away the region’s coasts.
Israeli or US attack on Iran Would Result in Massive Retaliation
Asked to comment specifically on Lindsey Graham’s threats against Iran, Martyanov emphasized that the “blowhard,” “certified war criminal” lawmaker “doesn’t know what he’s talking about” when it comes to the consequences of the actions he’s proposing.
For one thing, Martyanov said, Graham “doesn’t understand that the United States is not capable” of mounting “any kind of serious ground operation at all” against Iran.
“They know if they go in” that they “can send some Tomahawks there. Well, guess what? Iran is not even Syria. Iran is a serious regional power with actually quite significant military potential. And it has some high-tech weapons, including extremely advanced air defense. So in the United States, obviously, those statements are primarily made for public and for the benefit of Israel, too,” the observer said.
The same is the case for Israel, Martyanov noted, with Tel Aviv’s spate of anti-Iranian rhetoric constituting “empty threats,” since the Jewish State lacks the resources to mount a ground operation against Iran even if it were technically feasible.
“It would be decimated, but don’t forget, there are 1,200 kilometers separating Israel and Iran. Neither side can actually provide serious deployment of forces to fight a real war,” the observer said, pointing out that neither country would be able take advantage of combined arms multipliers fighting at such great distances.
“So what’s left is primarily air operations. And even this, on the part of Israel, will require direct interference and support from the United States because, as already stated, it’s 1,200 kilometers and they would have to fly over the territory of Jordan, Saudi Arabia. Good luck getting permission to do that. Or you can try to circumnavigate them, but then you have to refuel them nonstop. And that’s where the United States comes in,” Martyanov said.
“People forget that Iran has not only good air defense – they have a pretty outstanding variety of all kinds of operational tactical and operational ballistic missiles. And those are not Katyusha [rockets]; they are very serious, highly sophisticated missiles with great targeting. As the United States experienced in 2020, when Donald Trump ordered the absolutely irresponsible assassination of [IRGC Quds Force Commander Qasem] Soleimani,” the military analyst noted, recalling Iran’s bombardment of a pair of US bases in Iraq using precision missiles.
“Iran can literally blow up every single American base in the Middle East as a retaliation. So we have these dynamics there. And that’s why, for the most part, these are pathos statements or chest thumping,” Martyanov summed up.
Aces and Eights
By William Schryver – imetatronink – October 26, 2023
It now appears certain the United States is concentrating a huge naval force in the eastern Mediterranean, Red, and Arabian seas.
Several NATO nations are also sending warships to join this growing fleet.
Unknown numbers of US and NATO submarines are also certainly lurking in these regions.
There is already substantial US air power presence in the Persian Gulf region.
Israel is clearly working in concert with the US/NATO in whatever is brewing.
And make no mistake, something big IS brewing.
It is something I have written about for several years now, but consistently believed the Pentagon was not stupid enough to actually attempt.
As I view it, there can be only one primary target that would warrant such a large projection of military power as is underway: Iran and its allies in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.
And, as I have repeatedly argued over the years, I am convinced making war against Iran is a recipe for unforeseen disaster.
Iran wields much more military capability than is generally understood and appreciated both by western military analysts and the western populace.
There is no doubt the US/NATO/Israel, in tandem, can inflict severe damage against Iranian targets. But I am convinced they cannot do so without also incurring severe damage themselves.
Let’s also not forget there is a wildcard in this game: Russia and its strategically imperative bases in Syria.
As I see it, there are two realities at work here that will necessarily come into conflict:
1) The Pentagon is almost certain to regard the Russian bases in Syria as unacceptable threats to their objectives in the region. And therefore they will seek to neutralize them.
2) The Russians will fight to retain their Syrian bases.
Having now been compelled to abandon their designs to use the #MotherOfAllProxyArmies in Ukraine to weaken Russia, the Masters of Empire would no doubt love to “change the narrative” by defeating the Russians in Syria.
I believe Russian recognition of this likely move by the Americans is why Russian President Vladimir Putin — in China, no less — publicly announced 24/7 patrols of Kinzhal-armed Russian aircraft within range of the eastern half of the Mediterranean and much of the Red and Arabian seas.
The #EmpireAtAllCosts cult must have convinced themselves the Russians are bluffing, or that their capabilities are much weaker than claimed.
I am convinced both ideas are mistaken.
If the US itself is not merely bluffing, then this whole thing could get out of hand really fast.
Spanish minister calls on Europe to sever ties with Israel
MEMO | October 26, 2023
Spain’s acting Minister of Social Rights, Ione Belarra, called on European countries to sever diplomatic relations with Israel and impose an arms embargo and economic sanctions.
Belarra said in a post on X yesterday, that it is still possible to stop the “genocide” and also called for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and all other political leaders, who bombed civilians in the Gaza Strip, to be brought before the International Criminal Court.
In a previous statement, Belarra confirmed that “Israel has left hundreds of thousands of people without electricity, food, or water, and is bombing civilians, which constitutes collective punishment, serious violation of international humanitarian law and can be considered a war crime.”
She also accused the EU and US of encouraging Israel to practice a policy of discrimination, racism and aggression that – according to the Spanish minister – seriously violates human rights.
For the 19th consecutive day, the Israeli occupation army continues to target the Gaza Strip with intense air strikes that destroyed entire neighbourhoods and left thousands of Palestinian civilians martyred and wounded.
Biden makes light of soaring Gaza death toll, calls deaths of innocents ‘price to pay’
The Cradle | October 26, 2023
US President Joe Biden on 25 October said that he has “no notion” that the Health Ministry in Gaza, journalists, and humanitarian groups are telling the truth about the soaring number of civilian deaths in the Gaza Strip 18 days into Israel’s indiscriminate carpet bombing campaign.
“What they say to me is I have no notion that the Palestinians are telling the truth about how many people are killed. I’m sure innocents have been killed, and it’s the price of waging a war,” Biden said Wednesday during a joint press conference with Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
“I have no confidence in the number that the Palestinians are using,” the US president added. However, he did not explain why he believes Palestinians lie about the genocide unfolding in Gaza.
Despite Biden’s alleged apprehensions, as of 26 October, the death toll in the Gaza Strip stands at over 6,500 – including at least 2,704 children.
“Everyone uses the figures from the Gaza Health Ministry because those are generally proven to be reliable,” Omar Shakir, Israel and Palestine director at Human Rights Watch (HRW), told the Washington Post on 24 October. “In the times in which we have done our own verification of numbers for particular strikes, I’m not aware of any time which there’s been some major discrepancy.”
“We know that a health ministry is going to base [death tolls] on assessments coming from hospitals, morgues, etc.,” he added. “They have an ability to collect that in a way that other sources not there can’t do.”
Biden’s inflammatory statement coincided with a televised address by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in which he said that the war on Gaza is a battle between the “axis of evil” and the “axis of progress.”
“We are the people of light, they are the people of darkness — and light shall triumph over darkness,” Netanyahu stressed in the latest attempt by a senior Israeli official to dehumanize the Palestinian population.
Since the start of the Gaza-Israel war on 7 October, Israel and its western allies have been working overtime to discredit, censor, and obscure the reality faced by 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza, who have been subjected to enough explosives over the past two weeks to equal the size of the nuclear bomb dropped in Hiroshima.
Moreover, Israel has completely cut off Gaza from access to humanitarian aid as well as electricity, water, fuel, food, and medicine for over two weeks, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis.












