Aletho News

Black Sea grain crisis puts global wheat supplies under pressure

Al Mayadeen| September 21, 2026

The disruption of grain shipments from the Black Sea is deepening concerns over global food security, with Russia and Ukraine’s reduced wheat exports threatening to push prices higher and intensify inflation pressures.

The two countries account for more than a quarter of global wheat trade, making the Black Sea a critical route for grain shipments to some of the world’s largest importers. However, escalating attacks on ports, grain terminals, storage facilities, and vessels have severely disrupted exports since July.

The crisis comes as markets remain focused on energy disruptions and rising oil prices linked tothe US and Saudi aggressions in West Asia, while food supply risks have received less attention from investors.

“We can think of the Black Sea as important for global wheat trade as the Strait of Hormuz is for global oil trade,” Caitlin Welsh, a food security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said. “The world is underestimating the impact of these attacks.”

Black Sea grain routes face mounting pressure

Tue Vuong, chief executive officer of Golden Wheat, a milling company based in Ho Chi Minh City, secured four cargoes of wheat from the Black Sea region, accounting for about a fifth of the company’s annual supply.

However, after the summer escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, he was informed that some shipments would not be delivered.

“I was very panicked,” Vuong said. He received replacement offers for two cargoes from Bulgaria but spent weeks searching for additional supplies to avoid shortages.

“We were too exposed to a crisis in the Black Sea,” he added.

Golden Wheat eventually switched two vessels to load Bulgarian wheat from Burgas, located about 500 kilometers from the Ukrainian port of Odesa. Vuong also monitored shipping movements, insurance conditions, and developments in the Red Sea, where vessels face additional security concerns.

“Although the vessels were insured, if they had been attacked, we would have faced shortages,” he said.

The company later turned to US wheat supplies at a significantly higher cost, while prices continued to climb.

Russia and Ukraine wheat exports disrupted

Russia and Ukraine are among the world’s largest wheat exporters, while also accounting for major shares of sunflower oil and corn shipments.

Combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports are expected to reach roughly half last year’s level during the July-September harvesting period, according to researcher SovEcon.

Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, has not received Black Sea grain shipments for about a month. Russia’s exports have been affected by Ukrainian drone attacks, while Ukraine has struggled to move grain after damage to ports and disruptions to shipping routes.

Ukraine has attempted to redirect exports through Romania’s Constanta port and alternative routes along Romania and Bulgaria’s coastlines, but these channels are facing congestion.

A backlog of around 80 mostly smaller vessels has formed around Ukrainian Danube ports as traffic moves away from major Black Sea terminals, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Kpler and Bloomberg.

September 21, 2026 - Posted by aletho | Economics, Militarism | Egypt, Russia, Ukraine