Apple must withdraw all iPhone 12 models from the French market immediately, the National Frequency Agency (ANFR) announced on Tuesday, accusing the popular smartphone of emitting far more electromagnetic radiation than European Union regulations allow.
“The ANFR expects Apple to deploy all available means to put an end to the non-compliance. Failure to act will result in the recall of equipment that has already been made available to consumers,” the agency said.
According to the regulator, tests at an accredited laboratory revealed that the phone exceeded the specific absorption rate (SAR) value mandated by the EU, which is four watts-per-kilogram (W/kg), when held in hand or in a trouser pocket. The “body” SAR, when the phone is in a jacket pocket or a bag at least 5mm away, was within the 2 W/kg limit, however.
Apple must immediately stop the sale of iPhone 12 models and get ANFR approval if it makes updates to them to ensure compliance, the regulator added. ANFR inspectors have been authorized to check “all distribution channels in France” for the banned device, starting Tuesday.
The iPhone 12 was introduced in October 2020 and has continued to be popular due to a lower price point than the subsequent models. Apple says the model has a SAR of 0.99 W/kg when measured by the EU standard.
Earlier on Tuesday, the California-based Apple announced the iPhone 15 line of devices, featuring the USB-C connector in order to comply with an EU mandate adopted in 2022.
The US Federal Communications Commission has yet to comment on the French announcement. The FCC has a SAR limit of 1.6 W/kg.
France’s radiation crackdown comes after several months of bad news for Apple. Last week it was reported that China has banned government employees from bringing iPhones or any other foreign devices into the office or using them for work purposes.
Russian officials were advised to stop using iPhones in July, while the state military industry banned them outright, citing security concerns. Later that month, a class action suit in the UK accused the US-based company of monopolistic behavior regarding fees charged by the app store.
September 12, 2023
Posted by aletho |
Aletho News | France |
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Many observers believe that Russia and North Korea have decided to strengthen their military ties due to shared threats from the West. Reports claim that they’re exploring a swap whereby Russia would share hypersonic, nuclear, satellite, and submarine technology with North Korea in exchange for Soviet-era ammunition and artillery. The first part of this deal would balance the emerging US-South Korean-Japanese triangle while the second would keep Russia’s special operation going into next year.
There’s likely a lot of truth to this assessment since it makes sense for them to help each other against their shared opponents in the New Cold War, but there’s more to it than just that. For starters, the preceding report about their impending swap doesn’t account for Russia’s growing edge in its “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” with NATO that’s responsible for defeating Kiev’s counteroffensive. Even without North Korea’s Soviet-era supplies, Russia is still impressively holding its own against all of NATO.
This proves that Russia’s military-industrial complex (MIC) already meets its needs in the present and beyond, thus raising the question of why Russia would countenance a military deal with North Korea in the first place, let alone such a seemingly lopsided one. A cogent explanation is that Russia’s MIC might struggle in that scenario to meet its military-technical obligations to third parties, ergo the need to purchase lower-quality supplies so that production facilities can prioritize higher-quality exports.
Even if that’s the case, then it doesn’t answer the question of why Russia would be willing to share such potentially game-changing military technology with North Korea for these supplies instead of simply paying for them with hard currency, nor why it either can’t or won’t try to get them from China. Likewise, one might also wonder why North Korea can’t receive the aforesaid military technology from China and would have to request it from Russia as part of their reported swap.
The answer to those three questions concerns China’s reluctance to burn all bridges with the West as well as Russia and North Korea’s shared interests in preemptively averting potentially disproportionate dependence on the People’s Republic. Beginning with the first balancing act, while President Xi arguably envisages China leading the creation of alternative global institutions as strongly suggested by his decision to skip last weekend’s G20 Summit in Delhi, he’d prefer for this to be a smooth process.
Any abrupt bifurcation/”decoupling” would destabilize the global economy and therefore sabotage his country’s export-driven growth, but the US might force this scenario in response to China’s large-scale arming of Russia and/or transfer of game-changing military technology to North Korea. For that reason, President Xi likely wouldn’t agree to either of those two deals except if they were urgently required to prevent their defeat by the West, but neither is facing that threat so China won’t risk the consequences.
As for the second part of this balancing act, even if President Xi offered to meet Russia’s and North Korea’s military needs, those two would still probably prefer to rely on one another for them instead of China in order to not become disproportionately dependent on the People’s Republic. Both regard that country as one of the top strategic partners anywhere in the world, but each would feel uncomfortable if they entered into relationship where Beijing plays too big of a role in ensuring their national security.
From Russia’s perspective, it’s a matter of principle to never become disproportionately dependent on any given partner since such ties could curtail the Kremlin’s foreign policy sovereignty even if its counterpart doesn’t have any nefarious intent. In the Chinese context, relations of that nature might make some policymakers less interested in maintaining their country’s balancing act between China and India, thus leading to them subconsciously favoring Beijing and pushing Delhi closer to Washington.
Should that happen, then the global systemic transition to multipolarity would revert back towards bipolarity (or rather bi-multipolarity) as Russia turbocharges China’s superpower trajectory in parallel with India helping the US retain its declining hegemony. The result would be that only those two superpowers would enjoy genuine sovereignty while everyone else’s would be greatly limited by the natural dynamics of their competition. Russia obviously wants to avoid this scenario at all costs.
Unlike Russia’s global interests, North Korea’s are purely national, but they’re still complementary to Moscow’s. Pyongyang had been disproportionately dependent on Beijing since the end of the Old Cold War after the USSR collapsed, but China later leveraged this relationship to expand ties with the West by approving UNSC sanctions against North Korea. Russia did the same for identical reasons, but North Korea wasn’t dependent on Russia so Pyongyang didn’t hold a grudge against Moscow like it did Beijing.
It was this growing distrust of China that inspired Kim Jong Un to seriously explore Trump’s ultimately unsuccessful de-nuclearization proposal in order to rebalance his country’s relations with the People’s Republic. The same motivation was why Myanmar agreed to a rapprochement with the US under Obama that also ultimately failed. Both countries felt that their disproportionate dependence on China was disadvantageous and accordingly sought to rectify it by rebalancing ties with the US.
Since the American dimension of their balancing acts didn’t bear any fruit and is no longer viable, each is now looking towards Russia to play that same role in helping them relieve their disproportionate dependence on China. Russian-Myanmarese relations were explained here while Russian-North Korean ones will now be elaborated on a bit more. From Pyongyang’s perspective, even if Beijing gave it game-changing military technology, this could always be cut off one day if China reached a deal with the US.
In fact, China probably wouldn’t consider giving North Korea such technology anyhow since that could make it more difficult for Beijing to ever leverage its influence over Pyongyang again in pursuit of such a deal with Washington, thus limiting China’s own foreign policy sovereignty. The likelihood of Russia reaching a major deal with the US anytime soon is close to nil after all that’s unfolded over the past 18 months, so North Korea believes that Russia will be a much more reliable long-term military partner.
Russia and North Korea’s complementary balancing acts at the global and national levels vis-a-vis China coupled with China’s reluctance to burn all bridges with the West as it begins building alternative global institutions are the real driving forces behind the first two’s reported military deal. This grand strategic insight enables one to better understand the true state of relations between these countries and therefore helps objective observers produce more accurate analyses about them going forward.
September 12, 2023
Posted by aletho |
Aletho News | China, Korea, Russia, United States |
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A friend asked how many incremental deaths have there been due to the Floyd Effect? 3,000?
Nah, it’s more like 36,000 according to a simplistic methodology that takes CDC death counts for homicides and motor vehicle accidents for the years 2020-2022 and compares them them to how many there would have been if the average of 2018-19 had been maintained for the first three years of the 2020s. I come up with 2020 to 2022 having seen 36,042 additional Deaths of Exuberance (killings and car crashes) than if the death toll had stayed at the same annual rate as in 2018-2019.
That’s a pretty big number.
These 36,000 incremental deaths are divided pretty equally into extra homicides and extra traffic fatalities. And they are are about equally split into incremental black deaths and incremental all other deaths.
| The Floyd Effect |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Homicide Deaths |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Year |
Period |
Total |
Black |
White |
Hispanic |
Asian |
| 2018 |
Pre |
18,830 |
9,469 |
5,460 |
3,045 |
263 |
| 2019 |
Pre |
19,141 |
9,951 |
5,176 |
3,122 |
292 |
| 2020 |
Post |
24,576 |
13,493 |
6,143 |
3,920 |
289 |
| 2021 |
Post |
26,031 |
14,313 |
6,215 |
4,453 |
313 |
| 2022 |
Post |
24,830 |
13,225 |
5,975 |
4,480 |
310 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total 2018-19 |
|
37,971 |
19,420 |
10,636 |
6,167 |
555 |
| Total 2020-22 |
|
75,437 |
41,031 |
18,333 |
12,853 |
912 |
| Avg 2018-19 |
|
18,986 |
9,710 |
5,318 |
3,084 |
278 |
| Avg 2020-22 |
|
25,146 |
13,677 |
6,111 |
4,284 |
304 |
| Incr in Avg Deaths / Year |
|
6,160 |
3,967 |
793 |
1,201 |
27 |
| % Incr in Avg |
|
32% |
41% |
15% |
39% |
10% |
| Incremental Deaths 2020-22 vs. 2018-19 Avg |
|
18,481 |
11,901 |
2,379 |
3,603 |
80 |
| Share of Incremental |
|
|
64% |
13% |
19% |
0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Motor Vehicle Accident Deaths
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Year |
Period |
Total |
Black |
White |
Hispanic |
Asian |
| 2018 |
Pre |
39,404 |
6,140 |
25,095 |
6,123 |
837 |
| 2019 |
Pre |
39,107 |
6,196 |
24,770 |
6,165 |
824 |
| 2020 |
Post |
42,339 |
7,882 |
25,402 |
7,059 |
790 |
| 2021 |
Post |
46,980 |
8,583 |
27,805 |
8,143 |
932 |
| 2022 |
Post |
46,009 |
7,815 |
27,234 |
8,422 |
979 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total 2018-19 |
|
78,511 |
12,336 |
49,865 |
12,288 |
1,661 |
| Total 2020-22 |
|
135,328 |
24,280 |
80,441 |
23,624 |
2,701 |
| Avg 2018-19 |
|
39,256 |
6,168 |
24,933 |
6,144 |
831 |
| Avg 2020-22 |
|
45,109 |
8,093 |
26,814 |
7,875 |
900 |
| Incr in Avg Deaths / Year |
|
5,854 |
1,925 |
1,881 |
1,731 |
70 |
| % Incr in Avg |
|
15% |
31% |
8% |
28% |
8% |
| Incremental Deaths 2020-22 vs. 2018-19 Avg |
|
17,562 |
5,776 |
5,644 |
5,192 |
210 |
| Share of Incremental |
|
|
33% |
32% |
30% |
1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Homicide + Road Deaths |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Year |
Period |
Total |
Black |
White |
Hispanic |
Asian |
| 2018 |
Pre |
58,234 |
15,609 |
30,555 |
9,168 |
1,100 |
| 2019 |
Pre |
58,248 |
16,147 |
29,946 |
9,287 |
1,116 |
| 2020 |
Post |
66,915 |
21,375 |
31,545 |
10,979 |
1,079 |
| 2021 |
Post |
73,011 |
22,896 |
34,020 |
12,596 |
1,245 |
| 2022 |
Post |
70,839 |
21,040 |
33,209 |
12,902 |
1,289 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total 2018-19 |
|
116,482 |
31,756 |
60,501 |
18,455 |
2,216 |
| Total 2020-22 |
|
210,765 |
65,311 |
98,774 |
36,477 |
3,613 |
| Avg 2018-19 |
|
58,241 |
15,878 |
30,251 |
9,228 |
1,108 |
| Avg 2020-22 |
|
70,255 |
21,770 |
32,925 |
12,159 |
1,204 |
| Incr in Avg Deaths / Year |
|
12,014 |
5,892 |
2,674 |
2,932 |
96 |
| % Incr in Avg |
|
21% |
37% |
9% |
32% |
9% |
| Incremental Deaths 2020-22 vs. 2018-19 Avg |
|
36,042 |
17,677 |
8,023 |
8,795 |
289 |
| Share of Incremental |
|
|
49% |
22% |
24% |
1% |
Yes, it would have been simpler to just compare 2020-22 to the three years 2017-19, but the CDC made a methodological change between 2017 and 2018 in going from four races to six races (splitting Pacific Islanders out from Asians and adding “multiracial). So I just used the CDC’s data from 2018 onward to make an apples to apples comparison of 2020-22 to 2018-19.
Second, I didn’t bother adjusting for the modest population change during these years.
Third, the Floyd Effect didn’t begin on January 1, 2020, like I assume, but on May 25, 2020. Motor vehicle accident deaths weren’t up much in 2020 compared to previous years before Floyd Day. But black homicide deaths, after falling quite a bit in 2018 with the end of the Ferguson Effect under the Sessions Justice Department, began to creep upward again partway through 2019 and were rising in early 2020 before covid and also during early covid, before exploding in the last week of May during the first of the Mostly Peaceful Protests.
But graphing weekly data of black deaths, there’s no doubt that the Floyd Effect is closely linked to the demise of George Floyd and the subsequent cultural revolution. As you may recall, the “racial reckoning” was in all the papers at the time.
So, the fairest estimate of incremental deaths due to the Floyd Effect in 2020-2022 might be “approaching 35,000.” The Floyd Effect is no doubt continuing to pile up more incremental deaths in 2023, although homicides appear to be dropping (but are still well above the 2018-2019 rate).
Approaching 35,000 is quite a few deaths, especially among fairly young people with a lot of life expectancy left. It’s very similar to American deaths in the Korean War of 36,516, and more than five times the total deaths in the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars combined.
[Note: In CDC data, “homicides” refer to homicide victimizations not homicide perpetrations.]
September 9, 2023
Posted by aletho |
Aletho News | United States |
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SARS-CoV-2 Spike amyloid fibrils specifically and selectively accelerates amyloid fibril formation
During the last two years, several people in my broad social circle have told me that one or more of their parents seemed to experience a rapid cognitive decline during this time period. A British friend’s recent account is typical. On a trip home to visit her parents, she was stunned to learn that her father was just diagnosed with Alzheimer’s, as he’d seemed perfectly alert, engaged, and intellectually lively just two years ago. What could account for his precipitous decline? She confirmed that her father had received COVID-19 vaccines and multiple boosters since early 2021.
This anecdote was consistent with my general perception that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein—to which our bodies are exposed from COVID-19 infection and COVID-19 vaccination and boosters—may be accelerating underlying, inflammatory disease processes such as arteriosclerosis and Alzheimer’s. In this scenario, a man who was destined to have a fatal heart attack at 74 due to his underlying arteriosclerosis has one at the age of 54 because the spike protein produced by the COVID-19 vaccine and boosters, has markedly accelerated the disease. A similar acceleration of the Alzheimer’s disease process of amyloid fibril formation in the brain struck me as plausible.
With my British friend’s anecdote fresh on my mind, I read with keen interest a paper—published on a preprint servicer by Larson, Hellstrand, et al. at Linkoeping University in Sweden—titled SARS-CoV-2 Spike amyloid fibrils specifically and selectively accelerates amyloid fibril formation of human prion protein and the amyloid β peptide.
As is now typical of our infernally corrupt academic medical establishment, the authors only mention exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 spike during COVID-19 infection, and mention nothing about massive, uncontrolled exposure to the spike from COVID-19 vaccines and boosters.
As Dr. McCullough frequently emphasizes, those who are at the greatest risk of developing disease syndromes caused by the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein are people who are repeatedly exposed to it through the vaccine, boosters, and infections. Because the COVID-19 vaccines do NOT prevent infection and may even impair natural immunity, those who continue to receive these shots are simply increasing their repeated exposure to the dangerous spike.
See SARS-CoV-2 Spike amyloid fibrils specifically and selectively accelerates amyloid fibril formation of human prion protein and the amyloid β peptide.
September 5, 2023
Posted by aletho |
Aletho News | COVID-19 Vaccine |
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The return of Donald Trump to the White House could spell the end for US military aid to Ukraine, leaving a divided Europe to foot Kiev’s bills and ultimately ending the NATO pact, academic Phillips Payson O’Brien claimed in The Atlantic on Saturday.
Opposition to arming Ukraine is now the position of Trump’s supporter base, who O’Brien estimated account for three quarters of the Republican Party’s electorate. Trump has repeatedly vowed to use military aid as leverage to force Ukraine into peace talks with Russia “within 24 hours” of his inauguration, while his two nearest competitors for the GOP’s nomination – Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy – have also discussed restricting support for Kiev.
Of the three potential candidates, Ramaswamy has gone the furthest, suggesting that the US recognize Russia’s territorial claims in Ukraine in exchange for Moscow distancing itself from Beijing.
“If Trump or one of his imitators wins the presidency in November 2024, Europe could find itself faced with a new American administration that will halt all support for Ukraine,” O’Brien warned.
In this scenario, he continued, European nations would be unable to make up for the loss of US military aid, resulting in a military defeat for Ukraine. With the US out of the picture, Europe would be divided on the issue too, he added, with the Eastern and Baltic nations eager but unable to keep the arms flowing to Kiev, and Western nations like France and Germany more likely to seek peace with Russia.
“The result could be a legacy of bitterness and distrust at best, and a permanent fracturing of European cooperation at worst,” he stated.
A fervent supporter of Ukraine, O’Brien argued that European countries need to increase military production immediately to prepare for this possibility. However, with the Eurozone entering recession in the first three months of 2023 and industrial production down in Germany, European states are unlikely to be able to sustain the Ukrainian military on their own.
O’Brien’s predictions are based on the assumption that Ukraine will still be able to fight by 2025. According to Russian figures, Kiev lost 43,000 men in the first two months of its ongoing counteroffensive, without managing to penetrate the multiple layers of trenches and fortifications laid by Russia along the entire Kherson-Donetsk front line.
Before the operation began in early June, multiple Western media reports suggested that continued US and NATO military aid to Kiev depended on the success of the offensive. Now, almost three months in, the counteroffensive is widely regarded as a failure.
September 3, 2023
Posted by aletho |
Aletho News | France, NATO, Ukraine, United States |
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People raise Palestinian, Lebanese and Hezbollah flags during a rally in solidarity with the Palestinians, on the outskirts of the southern Lebanese village of Kfarkila, near a United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) armoured personnel carrier.
Iran joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS this summer, and has been working to expand bilateral cooperation with both Russia and China. Tehran is also the leader of an informal alliance of regional countries, including Syria, Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, and Iraqi Shia militias, known as the Axis of Resistance.
Iran’s foreign minister has praised the struggle in the Middle East to resist and undermine US dominance and create a new international order.
“The international system is undergoing fundamental changes and we are witnessing new actors in the international arena,” Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in a meeting with political groups in Beirut, Lebanon on Friday.
“The US is trying to maintain its hegemony, but the region and the world understand very well that America cannot exercise its hegemony, and on the contrary, the Resistance is powerful and can achieve its will powerfully,” Amir-Abdollahian added.
Today, the Iranian top diplomat said, “the position of the Resistance in the region cannot be ignored,” and is “being noticed by the West,” including as far as the Israeli-Palestinian crisis is concerned.
Separately, in talks with his Lebanese counterpart Abdallah Bou Habib, Amir-Abdollahian stressed that “the US sanctions regime cannot hinder the economic relations between Iran and Lebanon,” just as “it has failed to impact Iran’s cooperation with Iraq, Turkiye, Pakistan, Central Asia and the Caucasus.”
Iran is ready to provide further assistance to Lebanon to help Beirut resolve its long-running fuel and electricity crisis, he said. This includes readiness to build a network of power stations with a capacity of 2,000 megawatts.
Bou Habib praised Iran for its support for Lebanon in the nation’s time of crisis, and expressed readiness to further expand cooperation.
Lebanon’s political and economic crisis, which began in 2019, has left the country in economic ruin and run by a caretaker government. The post of president has been vacant since last October, when President Michel Aoun resigned at the end of his term.
Amir-Abdollahian also met with Hassan Nasrallah, secretary-general of the powerful Lebanese political party and militant group Hezbollah, which has forged close ties with Iran both in Lebanon and in Syria, where Hezbollah fighters backed by Revolutionary Guard Quds Force advisors have fought jihadist extremists for over a decade.
In the talks with Bou Habib, Amir-Abdollahian reiterated Iran’s long-stated position that “any normalization of relations with the Zionist regime will be detrimental to the entire region.” Iran will “continue to support and assist the Axis of Resistance, to preserve the Lebanese national interest, in the face of Israeli attacks and ambitions that threaten this entire region,” he said.
The Iranian diplomat also commented on the “positive developments” in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia following the surprise normalization of relations earlier this year, saying that these processes “will have a positive impact on the entire region,” including for Lebanon.
At a press conference at the end of his visit, Amir-Abdollahian also rejected allegations by France – the European power which once controlled Lebanon as a colony, of meddling in Lebanon’s affairs.
“I advise Mr. Macron to focus on the situation inside France instead of paying attention to questions of interference in other countries,” he said. “Iran has always played the most constructive role in helping Lebanon,” he added.
Earlier in the week, the French president told a conference of French ambassadors that stopping Iranian “interference” was a “key element” in resolving Lebanon’s political standoff.
Amir-Abdollahian’s Beirut visit was preceded by a trip to Damascus on Thursday for talks with President Bashar Assad and other Syrian officials. Amir-Abdollahian slammed the illegal presence of US troops in eastern Syria, and blasted Israel for its ongoing campaign of airstrikes against the war-torn country.
Known to jealously guard its security and foreign policy independence, and the defense of its interests even against far larger and more powerful foes, including the US, Iran has dramatically ramped up cooperation with Russia and China in recent years as part of ongoing processes related to Eurasian integration. Iran joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in July, and acceded to the BRICS bloc late last month. Last week, a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander and advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Iran sees a maritime-oriented economy and cooperation with Russia and China as keys to countering the impact of US sanctions.
September 2, 2023
Posted by aletho |
Aletho News | Hezbollah, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Middle East, Palestine, Sanctions against Iran, United States, Zionism |
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Where does this lead? To war!
I follow the Evening with Vladimir Solovyov shows as a professional duty, not for fun. The host is very often boorish and the panelists are variable in quality, with too many duds among them. However, every several days I am pleasantly surprised by the analytical talents of one or another panelist who gives us a fresh and often persuasive understanding of the drivers of global events.
One such case was last night when a panelist from MGIMO, the higher educational institution that has educated Russia’s diplomatic corps for decades, gave us his take on the danger of a new world war, meaning a nuclear holocaust, that we presently face. It is all because the political leaders in the United States and in Europe enjoy very low domestic ratings, face elections in the coming year or so and are desperate to hold onto power. For some losing power can mean being sent before courts for various crimes they have committed in office. War is the solution they seize upon in the hope of diverting attention from their personal failings and economic woes, as well as to clamp down on free expression of opposition to the powers that be.
So it is for Joe Biden. Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump have said as much in public over the past several days. But it is just as true of the European presidents and prime ministers. They are all buffeted by economic head winds, by rampant inflation, deindustrialization and falling living standards that they unleashed with their ill-considered imposition of sanctions on Russia. They all are highly unpopular. We know, for example, that German Chancellor Scholz is now among the least regarded politicians in his country. Macron is now rivaling former president Hollande, who came in at single digit numbers in polls before he abandoned his hopes of reelection. And what is the result? Scholz has become a war hawk and repeatedly has agreed to supply ever more deadly materiel to Kiev. Macron has come out as a hawk not only on Ukraine but now is a caricature colonialist on the question of participating in military operations against Niger to reinstall the French-backed comprador government.
Over in Poland, where an election is looming, the government of Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki is fighting for its life against a resurgent Civic Platform party. It has put in place a law aimed at sidelining the former prime minister and CP leader Donald Tusk over charges that he was soft on the Russians. Losing power might result in the chairman of the Law and Justice party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski being sent to trial, as is now demanded by Lech Walesa. The result? Poland has been building up its military forces on the border with Belarus and is preparing the public for an imminent outbreak of war.
And then there is the most recent example supporting the given line of analysis: what is going on in Estonia. Let us recall that in the past week there has been a political storm in Estonia when it became known that the husband of the viciously anti-Russian prime minister, Kaja Kallas, has been making millions of euros of profit from his logistics business assisting an Estonian company that has production in Russia. When confronted with this outrageous violation of the cut-off of relations with Russia that she has demanded of her fellow citizens since the war in Ukraine began, Kallas just shrugged it off as something she knew nothing about. However, we note that the drone attack that destroyed Russian military aircraft at the Pskov airport in Russia’s northwest region a day ago is said to have been launched from Estonian territory.
So far, Moscow has not reacted to what could and should be a casus belli with a NATO Member State. But how much longer will Putin show forbearance?
These are very dangerous times and the weakness of Western leadership points to more, not less war.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023
September 2, 2023
Posted by aletho |
Aletho News | France, Germany, Poland, United States |
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By Uriel Araujo | September 2, 2023
Russia’s Gazprom has said it would ship 42.4 million cubic meters of gas to Europe – such a volume is in line with recent days. There are concerns regarding the future of gas shipments to Europe, however. Last month, Ukrainian energy minister Herman Galushchenko ruled out the prospect of Kiev participating in new Russian gas transit talks pertaining to a five year agreement which will expire at the end of 2024. He added that by 2024 Europeans should be ready to manage without Russian gas. This is the latest chapter of a long dispute.
Writing for Politico in September 2022, energy correspondent America Hernandez highlighted that Russian energy giant Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz were in a battle regarding arbitration and payments for gas shipments through Ukraine – and this threatened gas transit to Europe. Here, some context is needed.
Despite the ongoing confrontation, Gazprom (Russia’s state-owned energy corporation) has been honoring a pre-conflict 2019 transit agreement: the 2019 deal, which runs until the end of 2024, allows Gazprom to export over 40 billion cubic meters of gas a year via Ukraine – and this earns Kiev about $7 billion.
Gazprom chief Alexei Miller, however, warned in July 2023 that the Russian energy giant could stop exporting if Kiev did not cease its campaign to seize Russian state assets. Ukraine has been in fact fighting a legal war to make Moscow pay over $5 billion as compensation for Ukraine’s state energy firm Naftogaz losses pertaining to the annexation of Crimea after the 2014 referendum. Naftogaz’s lawyers have been filing enforcement petitions in several jurisdictions internationally. According to Elena Chachko, a Harvard Law School’s Rappaport Fellow, Ukrainian endeavors to combine warfare and lawfare are an attempt to set a precedent in their own way: “The Ukrainians have been pretty active and pretty sophisticated in how they leverage various legal avenues to attack the Russians. They’ve been very creative.” She adds: “The route of arbitration is one they’ve been very sophisticated in utilizing to impose sanctions on Russia in a sort of indirect way”.
Moreover, in July 2023, mentioning a Hague court ruling favoring Ukraine’s claims for compensation, which Moscow is to appeal, Naftogaz CEO said: “We don’t expect Russia to pay voluntarily. It will take time to enforce it and monetize it, and we will be targeting Russian sovereign assets abroad.” In other words, under the justification that there is a European court decision, Ukraine is illegally seizing Russian assets.
Gazprom ceased to supply gas through Yamal-Europe and the (now gone) Nord Stream and pipelines, thus making the transit line through Ukraine the one and only route to supply Russian gas to Central and Western European countries.
By telling Europeans to be ready to go on without Russian gas, Ukraine’s energy minister Herman Galushchenko is providing music to Washington’s ears. In December 2021, there was an energy crisis in Europe already and I wrote on how the US war on the Nord Stream 2 project made perfect sense from an American perspective: Washington wanted neither to lose leverage on the European continent nor to have Moscow having more leverage there. Moreover, the US created obstacles to Russian-European energy and gas cooperation so as to promote its own resources to European markets. Washington would thus have Europeans buying more and more of American liquified natural gas (LNG) – despite the fact that it is more expensive and despite the fact that Russia lies at the “doorstep” of Europe. These American geoeconomic and private (and even shady) interests play an important role here – in addition to US-led NATO geopolitical goals pertaining to encircling Russia. One cannot make sense of the current conflict without taking those into consideration.
In any case, by refusing to transit Russian gas, which Europeans need, Kiev is basically blackmailing the European bloc, as it hopes to see an ever-larger supply of NATO-provided weaponry and aid. It remains to be seen how European powers will play along.
The hard truth is that the Western strategy to isolate Moscow from global energy markets has been a failure. Of course crude oil supplies to the West have dropped, but overall Russian hydrocarbon exports are back to pre-conflict levels, while India has occupied the share of Western nations when it comes to Russian exports. With rising de-industrialization, the US’ own subsidy war against the EU, and with sanctions having backfired, it would seem that sooner or later Europe will have no choice but to gradually ease sanctions against the Russian energy resources it badly needs. The framework for that could involve lots of good diplomacy and the de-escalation of tensions. Right now, truth be told, Ukraine’s blackmail handicaps this prospect.
September 2, 2023
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Aletho News | Russia, Ukraine |
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Apparently, the Ukrainian government wants to disguise the dictatorial aspect of the regime by pretending to be a democracy. According to information reported by Western media, Kiev plans to organize elections next year. The news is surprising, as the country has been under martial law since February 2022, which would legitimize the postponement of the elections. However, the aim is believed to be to increase Zelensky’s popularity and improve his public image.
The information was published by the Spanish newspaper El Pais on August 28th. Anonymous sources familiar with the matter were consulted by journalists and said that elections will strengthen Zelensky, thus motivating a circumvention of the norms imposed by martial law.
Until recently, Zelensky ruled out elections, but now there are signs that he and his team are changing the strategy. In an interview with local TV a few days ago, Zelensky said: “The logic is that if you are protecting democracy, you must also protect it during the war. And one way to protect it is elections”. In the same vein, Ruslan Stefanchuk, the head of the Ukrainian parliament, stated in July that updates to Ukrainian martial law “would take place soon” as “democracy cannot stop”. Some analysts believe he was commenting on the possibility of calling elections even in times of war.
There are some additional reasons why Kiev is planning these measures. First, it is necessary to remember that the Ukrainian neo-Nazi regime is not sovereign, and all its decisions are taken under the direct influence of foreign agents. And recently there has been pressure from some Americans for Ukraine to implement “more democratic” policies to justify Western support. American politicians have already expressed, including in a personal meeting with Zelensky, their desire to see elections in Ukraine next year, which explains Ukraine’s readiness to revise its martial law.
“After a meeting with Zelensky in Kyiv on Wednesday, two senators from the Democratic Party, Elizabeth Warren and Richard Blumenthal, as well as Republican Lindsey Graham, stressed that they considered it necessary for Ukrainian democracy to hold elections despite the country being at war. The Democratic position has a lot to do with the upcoming presidential election in the United States, which will be held in November 2024. The Republican Party has numerous prominent members (including former President Donald Trump) who have criticized military support for Kyiv, and who, since last spring, have used the argument that Ukraine is not so different from Russia, since the country has suspended democracy under the pretext of war”, El Pais’ article reads.
However, some sources also believe that the main reason for Kiev to take this action is a matter of domestic politics. Zelensky’s popularity has fallen recently, not just because of the conflict, but also because the Ukrainian president has failed to fulfill his main promise during the previous election campaign: to fight corruption. So, instead of thinking about concrete solutions to the corruption problem, Zelensky apparently plans to regain his popularity through new elections. The Ukrainian political scenario does not allow for the existence of a solid opposition coalition, given that many parties were banned and opposing politicians arrested, so it could be “easy” for Zelensky to achieve victory.
In this regard, Mark Savchuk, a political commentator and adviser to the Ukrainian National Anti-Corruption Office, told journalists:
“Zelenskiy is a great public relations man, especially with the international community, and we are lucky for that, but if there is now talk of going to the polls it is because of Ukrainian internal issues that he does not want to be aired abroad (…) Only in the judiciary have there been improvements, but neither Zelenskiy nor his team are prepared [to fight corruption]. Ordinary Ukrainians see that this is still a corrupt country, they experience it on a daily basis and there are always new stories about it in the news (…) Their team is inept and corrupt. We have a serious corruption problem and they believe that their popularity will slip, so they want to take advantage of their charisma now electorally.”
However, it will not be so easy to organize elections in the midst of the conflict. There are many difficulties to be faced by Ukrainian citizens in an election scenario. In all regions affected by the hostilities it will be virtually impossible for citizens to vote, as the possibility of moving around is severely limited due to the intensity of the fighting. This will restrict the voting area to only some western regions of Ukraine, where the population is more influenced by pro-NATO media and tends to support the regime – despite growing criticism of Zelensky’s administrative ability.
In practice, there are two risks for Zelensky with the plan to hold a new election. One of them is Zelensky losing the dispute. Although the Ukrainian opposition has been practically neutralized by the regime’s dictatorial policies, it has become increasingly clear that Western sponsors plan to replace Zelensky, which makes it possible for Washington to create the necessary conditions for another candidate to win. The other risk is that, even if he wins, Zelensky remains unpopular, with his victory looking like a mere bureaucratic procedure, given the absence of relevant opponents. In this scenario, the plan to make Ukraine look “more democratic” would fail.
However, in either case, Ukraine’s real problem will not be solved: the country will continue to work as a proxy for the US and fight an unwinnable war against a much stronger enemy, causing unnecessary suffering for the Ukrainian population.
Lucas Leiroz is a journalist and a researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant.
You can follow Lucas on Twitter and Telegram.
August 31, 2023
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Aletho News | Ukraine, United States |
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The Kyiv Post reported on Zelensky’s latest TV interview here, the highlights of which will be shared below and then analyzed in the larger context of the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine:
* Zelensky is tacitly walking back his envisaged maximalist endgame by already declaring victory
– “It’s already clear that he [Putin] has not occupied us as he wanted. We did it, [we defended against his attack], this is already a great victory for the people.”
* He’s preparing the public for freezing the conflict along the lines of the Israeli-Palestinian one
– “We are ready to fight for a long time without losing people. It can be so. Minimize casualties following Israel’s example. You can live like that.”
* Ukraine believes that it’ll lose Western support if it invades Russia’s pre-2014 territory
– “There would be a big risk that we would be definitely left alone and on our own.”
* The “Israeli model” will likely characterize US-Ukrainian ties for the indefinite future
– “From the US, we probably have the Israeli model, where there are weapons, technologies, training, and financial aid.”
* Hard and soft security guarantees are actively being pursued
– “With the United States, it will be a more powerful bilateral treaty, with Britain – a strong one. There are states that simply do not have weapons, but they have finances, serious sanctions in case of repeated aggression.”
* An official NATO intervention could trigger World War III
– “We don’t need them, because it would be a NATO war, and that would mean the Third World War.”
* Ukraine might abandon military means for reconquering Crimea
– “I believe that it’s possible to politically push for the demilitarization of Russia on the territory of the Ukrainian Crimea. That would be better. Any combat would still have losses [casualties], wherever it is. Everything must be calculated.”
* Elections can be held next year if the West foots the bill and observers are sent to the trenches
– “If you [allies] are ready to give me 5 billion because I can’t just take 5 billion from the state budget. It seems to me that this is the amount needed to hold elections at a normal time. And in wartime, I don’t know what this amount is, that’s why I said – if the US and Europe give us financial support.
I’m sorry, I’m not asking for anything. I will not hold elections on credit. I will not take money from weapons and give it for elections either. The most important thing: let’s take risks together. The observers should then be in the trenches, they will need to be sent to the front line”
* Ukraine is now allegedly producing NATO weapon systems
– “We have domestic artillery on the battlefield today, using NATO-standard 155mm shells, which have never been seen before in Ukraine. We now have production and production of not one system, but several systems.”
These highlights show how drastically the conflict’s dynamics have shifted in the nearly three months since the counteroffensive began.
The first takeaway from Zelensky’s interview is that the counteroffensive failed, which is why he’s preparing the public for freezing the conflict. This is being achieved by already declaring victory, suggesting that Crimea can be reconquered through political means instead of military ones on the pretext of saving his soldiers’ lives, and referencing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a future model. Ahead of that scenario, he wants to reassure his people that the West will still ensure their security.
To that end, he brought up the “Israeli model” as the likely way forward for US-Ukrainian relations together with a mix of hard and soft security guarantees from other NATO countries. Zelensky also appears aware of the Western public’s growing concerns that he’s leading everyone to World War III, which might be why he explicitly ruled out invading Russia’s pre-2014 territory together with denying that he has any interest in NATO formally intervening in his side’s support.
About that, it’s already involved in this conflict via the arms, intelligence, logistics, mercenary, training, and other forms of support that it’s provided to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but this is still below the level of dispatching uniformed troops to kill Russian soldiers. It also can’t be discounted that he’s worried about Poland unilaterally intervening in Western Ukraine, which readers can learn more about here and here, and that could be another reason why he warned that NATO troops could lead to World War III.
As for holding the now-delayed parliamentary elections sometime next year and not delaying the upcoming presidential ones that are scheduled for spring, this is a direct result of the pressure that Senator Lindsey Graham exerted on Zelensky during their meeting in Kiev last week. It’s the latest evidence that the failed counteroffensive is widening preexisting differences between the US and Ukraine all across the board, in this case over superficial commitments to “democracy”.
Readers can learn more about the latest difficulties in their ties by reviewing the following analyses:
* “A Vicious Blame Game Is Breaking Out After The Counteroffensive Predictably Failed”
* “US Policymakers Are Caught In A Dilemma Of Their Own Making After The Failed Counteroffensive”
* “The NYT & WSJ’s Critical Articles About Kiev’s Counteroffensive Explain Why It Failed”
In sum, both sides know that the counteroffensive failed, but neither wants to take responsibility for this.
A ceasefire of some sort therefore appears inevitable. The problem, however, is that freezing the conflict entails considerable reputational damage to the American and Ukrainian leaderships. Neither has yet to feel comfortable enough that their people fully blame the other for this debacle, hence why they remain reluctant to take the first step in what might then become a fast-moving process. It’s for this reason why they continue blaming each other and will likely continue doing so for the next few months at least.
President Putin made it clear on three occasions in mid-June that he was still interested in politically resolving the proxy war, but Zelensky’s latest claim that Ukraine is allegedly producing NATO weapon systems means that his reputation might also be damaged if he agrees to a ceasefire. After all, the special operation was partly commenced to demilitarize Ukraine and specifically eliminate the threat that NATO’s clandestine expansion there posed to Russia’s objective national security interests.
With Ukraine now openly producing NATO weapons systems, President Putin either has to ensure that these facilities are destroyed before agreeing to a ceasefire or informally freezing the conflict otherwise he stands to “lose face” among his domestic audience by tolerating this latent military threat. It might also be the case that Zelensky is just bluffing and could have lied about this just to make his Russian counterpart look bad in the event of a ceasefire, however, though nobody can really say for sure.
In any case, the Ukrainian leader’s latest TV interview drove home the point that the conflict’s dynamics have drastically shifted. Zelensky is clearly preparing his people for a ceasefire, but he’s also talking about security guarantees from NATO and his country’s alleged production of its weapon systems, both of which will rankle Russia. The US’ recent elections pressure on him is for purely soft power purposes, but it still shows that their differences on a host of issues are growing after the failed counteroffensive.
Looking forward, observers can expect the aforesaid to widen, but not to the point of rupturing their relations. The US-Ukrainian blame game will intensify during this period too as each side prepares their people for the seemingly inevitable scenario of freezing the conflict. As this is happening, Russia might also begin preparing its own people for the same, which could move the conflict towards the Israeli-Palestinian model by sometime next year unless something serious happens to derail this trajectory.
August 29, 2023
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Aletho News | NATO, Russia, Ukraine, United States |
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The Russian Army is actively using advanced drones in its special military operation zone in Ukraine, amid Kiev’s bungled counteroffensive, which has claimed the lives of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) no longer have a drone advantage over Russian troops, a US magazine has reported, adding that the time when Kiev had better unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) than Moscow did has passed.
The magazine quoted Ukrainian drone pilot Nikolai Voroshnov as saying that the UAF is “starting to fall behind significantly” in terms of drone warfare.
He specifically referred to the “effective” Russian jamming aimed at tackling Ukrainian drones. “Six months ago, this was not the case: we could fly anywhere, as we wanted. Now, if you enter at a low altitude, the [Russian] anti-drone [systems] will definitely work on you,” Voroshnov said.
The US media outlet noted in this regard that “the Kremlin successfully has institutionalized the acquisition of small drones, including speedy first-person-view (FPV) racing drones […] that operators can fit with explosives and fly directly into enemy vehicles and trenches.”
According to the magazine, the Russian military is “buying FPV drones by the hundreds and training regular troops to fly them via virtual-reality headsets”. The UAF, in contrast, “largely still rely on donations to buy FPV drones—and volunteers to operate them,” the news outlet added.
The magazine also mentioned the Russian Armed Forces’ new tactics that stipulate close interaction between various types of drones and fighter bombers carrying satellite-guided glide-bombs.
“It all starts with aerial reconnaissance by Russian Orlan, Zala or Supercam drones carrying day-night cameras. The recon drones spot Ukrainian forces, and then the Lancets, FPV drones and fighter-bombers zero in,” the news outlet pointed out.
The developments unfold against the backdrop of the Ukrainian Army’s futile attempts to break through the Russian defensive lines, a counteroffensive that President Vladimir Putin said brought no result, causing huge losses in the UAF’s men and materiel.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry’s estimates, Ukraine has lost about 43,000 troops and 4,900 units of military equipment since the beginning of the counteroffensive on June 4.
August 29, 2023
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Aletho News | Russia, Ukraine |
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It was earlier assessed that “The AU-ECOWAS Rift Over Niger Was Predictable” due to their differing approaches towards the continent’s latest regime change. The AU believes that its ousted leader should be returned to power via peaceful means while ECOWAS’ active members are in favor of forcefully reimposing his rule. Neither of them support the interim authorities’ three-year transitional plan, however, with ECOWAS rejecting it outright and the AU suspending Niger right afterwards.
The AU also “called upon all Member States of the AU and the international community including bilateral and multilateral partners, at large to reject this unconstitutional change of government and to refrain from any action likely to grant legitimacy to the illegal regime in Niger.” This came shortly after reports began circulating that neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali, which are also run by interim military-led governments, stationed warplanes in Niger to deter a French-backed Nigerian-led ECOWAS invasion.
Late last week, those three countries’ Foreign Ministers met in Niamey, where they issued a joint statement that importantly declared the following:
“The three countries have agreed to grant each other facilities for mutual assistance in matters of defense and security in the event of aggression or terrorist attacks. They have decided to set up a consultation framework that allows them to coordinate their actions in order to deal with the multiple situations and challenges to which they are exposed. This consultation framework remains open to countries wishing to participate in this dynamic in order to respond to the concerns and needs of their populations in terms of peace, security and economic and monetary development. To this end, they agreed to set up a Joint Secretariat.”
Simply put, they’ve established a regional mutual defense alliance (“Sahelian Alliance”) that’ll also aim to accelerate political and economic-financial integration between them.
Before delving into a discussion about which of the three organizations involved in the West African Crisis – the AU, ECOWAS, and the Sahelian Alliance – truly represent the Nigerien people’s sovereign will, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s detailed reaction to that country’s regime change is worth mentioning. It can be read in full here, but he basically concluded that the region’s interim military-led governments sought to rebalance their prior leaderships’ relations with the West for the betterment of their people.
That observation segues into the subject of this analysis since it lends credence to the views shared by Burkinabe leader Ibrahim Traore during late July’s Second Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg. While speaking among those of his fellow African leaders who were brave enough to resist Western pressure to attend, he still lambasted many of them for being imperialist puppets due to their opposition to his interim military-led government after it was suspended from the AU and ECOWAS.
His country’s people and those of similarly military-ruled Guinea, Mali, and now Niger all rallied behind their armed forces after they overthrew their French puppet leaderships, yet each were still punished by those two organizations to different extents, with Niger now facing the threat of invasion. It stands to reason that all of these interim military-led governments genuinely enjoy grassroots support otherwise there’d be Color Revolution attempts and even anti-state rebellions/insurgencies/terrorist campaigns.
To be sure, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger – which have now joined forces to become the Sahelian Alliance – are indeed facing terrorist threats, but they’re derived from a radical ideological virus that predates their respective military coups and aren’t a result of those regime changes. The AU represents the African Establishment, however, whose members fear being overthrown by their own armed forces. For that reason, it always opposes coups even if they’re popular among the people.
The same can be said about ECOWAS’ stance since it’s pretty much just a regionally focused version of the AU that represents the West African Establishment more so than the West African people. Since the Nigerien coup is the fourth one to take place in the ambit of its influence, the non-suspended members of the group are more worried than the distant AU is about the possibility of a so-called “domino effect”, ergo why they’re threatening the use of force to reverse the situation while the AU remains against it.
Both organizations prioritize the interests of their elite members, the African Establishment as a whole in the AU’s case and the West African one in ECOWAS’, over those of the people that they claim to represent. This explains why they’re not only against the Nigerien coup, but why the AU told others not to legitimize it while ECOWAS is threatening an invasion. Although Russia is formally opposed to it and any anti-constitutional regime change too, Moscow’s stance is much more pragmatic than theirs.
Post-coup Mali became one of Russia’s closest military partners on the continent behind the Central African Republic, while Burkina Faso is considering following in its neighbor’s footsteps after Interim President Traore declared earlier this spring that he considers Russia his country’s strategic ally. These two Sahelian security relationships are flourishing in spite of Moscow having opposed their anti-constitutional regime changes since it believes in cooperating with them during their transitions.
By contrast, the AU and ECOWAS are against third parties legitimizing the post-coup leaderships of those countries who they’ve suspended even though the aforesaid could advance everyone’s objective interests like in the Russian example of helping Mali and Burkina Faso fight transnational terrorists. Once again, it’s important to remind the reader that neither those two, Guinea, or Niger experienced any Color Revolution attempts or serious anti-state violence, thus confirming popular support for their rulers.
All factors considered, the AU and ECOWAS are arguably against the sovereign will of the Nigerien people whereas that country’s interim military-led authorities, the newly formed Sahelian Alliance, and Russia all embody it on the national, regional, and international levels. The first of those three carried out their coup for patriotic reasons aimed at realizing their people’s desire for true sovereignty after languishing under France’s neo-colonial occupation for decades as de facto slaves.
The second’s allies experienced their own patriotic military coups for the same reason and then sought to pool their forces to deter imperialist puppets like ECOWAS’ remaining members. As for Russia’s interests, it pragmatically decided to help these post-coup countries’ leaderships fight transnational terrorism since it’s in their own people’s, the region’s, and all of Africa’s interests. These three – Niger’s new authorities, the Sahelian Alliance, and Russia – are the true vanguards of sovereignty in West Africa.
August 27, 2023
Posted by aletho |
Aletho News | Africa, Burkina Faso, France, Mali, Niger, Russia |
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