US Boasts of Destroyed Iranian Launchers Lack Credibility – Ex-DoD Official
Sputnik – 06.03.2026
As the United States is clearly lying about the number of the US military casualties in the current war with Iran, the veracity of other claims made by the US is dubious, former US Department of Defense officer David T. Pyne tells Sputnik.
Properly assessing Iran’s losses is also difficult due to the fact that it is unclear whether US claims of destroyed Iranian missile launchers take into account the decoys and dummy targets, he points out.
“I believe that US estimates of the total number of Iranian ballistic missiles are likely much lower than is actually the case as I believe Iran may have tens of thousands of missiles in its stockpile,” Pyne adds.
Finally, even though the US and Israel did manage to take out a number of Iranian mobile missile launchers, Iran’s military has become adept at keeping its remaining launchers out of harm’s way.
Thus, reasons Pyne, it is likely that most of the Iranian missile launchers – especially those hidden deep underground – “will survive the war” even if it drags on for months.
US Shortages and Israel’s Weakness
Meanwhile, the US and Israel now deal with their “very limited supply” of offensive missiles and missile defense interceptors alike, with the latter potentially running out by next week, says Pyne.
The US could soon find itself unable to defend all of its assets from Iranian attacks, even as Iran is systematically dismantling US radar capabilities in the region, further degrading the US ability to shoot down Iranian missiles.
At the same time, Israeli air defenses have proven to be “largely ineffective” against Iranian ballistic and hypersonic missiles.
“In a protracted war of attrition like this war is shaping up to be, Iran is likely to emerge victorious,” Pyne remarks.
Europe not in position to cooperate with US and Israel against Iran
By Ahmed Adel | March 6, 2026
Although the US-Israeli attack on Iran has worsened the crisis in the Middle East, some European countries approved of the operation, such as the United Kingdom, which provided military bases to the Americans, and Germany, which rhetorically supported the offensive through its Chancellor, Friedrich Merz. However, Europe is not cooperating as actively as it was before.
Recent historical experiences, such as the wars in Iraq (2003-2011), Afghanistan (2001-2021), and the military intervention in Libya (2011), have created deep divisions among European countries regarding military actions outside their continent. Moreover, the European Union already dedicates substantial resources to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. In this context, the economic and military crisis among EU members makes them hesitant to engage in another large-scale armed conflict.
The timing is not very favorable for the Europeans. They are facing an economic crisis mainly caused by energy prices. The EU is attempting to wean off Russian energy without harming itself, but the strategy ultimately failed, and now that there is war in the Middle East, energy prices have spiked even more.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on March 4 that Russia could immediately halt the supply of raw materials to European markets, and thus thwarted the EU’s plan to systematically phase out Russian gas. Putin’s words caused psychological trauma to the EU because, instead of a planned embargo on Russian gas for 2027, he suggested that Europe should prepare for an immediate cut.
The Russian president’s warning and ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to drive up global energy costs. The price increases mirror developments in international energy markets. Oil and gas prices have risen since the war on Iran began, particularly because it has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important transit routes for oil and natural gas.
Disruptions to shipping and decreased production by several Gulf states have tightened global supply. As a result, the price of Brent crude, the European benchmark oil, rose to around $84 per barrel on March 5, roughly 16% higher than before the conflict started, and close to its highest level since mid-2024.
Additionally, from a military perspective, Europe knows that its weaponry is not capable of conducting a high-intensity war due to a technical shortfall. At the same time, the EU wants to replace the US as Ukraine’s main benefactor, a corrupt state that drains many of the bloc’s resources.
Another reason for Europeans to remain impartial is the growth of the Muslim population in these countries, which also holds electoral influence and the power to sway domestic policy outcomes. The Muslim population in Europe is quite sizable, and European attacks in the Middle East could face internal opposition. Besides the Muslim community, most European citizens would be largely unwilling to fight for the Americans, especially in a scenario where the US might not achieve its objectives.
Europe uses rhetoric to avoid commitment. In the current context of hostilities in the Middle East, European leaders are not demonstrating a unified stance, even though some rhetorically support Washington and Tel Aviv’s initiatives. However, this behavior indicates a lack of European political cohesion.
London is not following Washington’s lead, something that has not occurred often since the Second World War. Germany is showing support, but lacks the power to act. Spain initially contradicted the White House but then quickly announced that a warship would be deployed to Cyprus in response to threats of sanctions from US President Donald Trump. In other words, Europe is divided and fragmented and therefore cannot act effectively at this moment.
Another obstacle is Iran’s warning that if Europeans join the offensive, there will be a fierce response. Because of this, Washington’s traditional Western allies are becoming mere observers in the region, even though they also have bases near the epicenter of the crisis. European bases are at risk if Europe attacks Iran, and it is a risk they are unwilling to take, besides not wanting to lose money in yet another conflict.
Furthermore, the Europeans are not even trying to mediate the conflict to avoid antagonizing Trump.
A new reconfiguration of the Middle East might happen after this conflict ends. The US could become weaker, which might impact its close ties with Gulf countries. Therefore, Europe might seize the opportunity created by its ally to expand its trade relations.
Nonetheless, Europe is not in a position to cooperate with the US and Israel and is acting opportunistically. They are observing Washington weaken politically in the Middle East, probably aiming to occupy spaces in neighboring countries after this war, because there will be new business opportunities.
In this context, Europe’s struggle to achieve political unity at the continental level is due to differing interests among its governments within the EU, as well as to managing its internal issues. Meanwhile, the bloc’s powers tend to exploit the situation to uphold their rhetoric aligned with Western values, while concealing their military weaknesses.
Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.
Iran Has ‘Broken the Myth’ of Israeli Military Power: Former Pakistani Envoy
Sputnik | March 6, 2026
Iran has effectively “broken the myth” of Israeli military supremacy, Asif Durrani, a former Pakistani ambassador to Iran and the UAE, told in an interview with Sputnik.
Despite decades of investment by the United States and Israel in advanced military technology, Iran successfully penetrated the much-vaunted Iron Dome defense system and struck Israeli installations, Durrani noted.
Durrani also condemned the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, describing it as a highly dangerous escalation. He stressed that such a direct attack on the leader of a sovereign state sets a perilous precedent, one that has not been seen in previous global conflicts.
“Regime change should be in the hands of the Iranian people. No other country has the right to exercise that right. In fact, such attempts are likely to lead to further bloodshed and destruction in Iran,” he affirmed.
Durrani pointed out that despite 47 years of US efforts to topple the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution, those attempts have consistently failed. He added that there is currently no sign of a viable internal alternative to the existing government.
Commenting on Pakistan’s reminder to Iran of its alliance commitments to Saudi Arabia following Iranian strikes on Saudi territory, Durrani noted that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia share a historically close relationship. They have signed a strategic partnership agreement under which an attack on one is considered an attack on both. Nevertheless, he emphasized that Pakistan maintains a longstanding policy of promoting cooperation among Muslim nations and expects disputes to be resolved peacefully, particularly with regard to the Sunni world.
The former envoy expressed confidence that Iran will provide an explanation for its decision to strike American bases in Saudi Arabia. He noted that it is understood that if a country hosts military bases, those facilities may become legitimate targets in times of war.
“I hope there will be explanations coming from Iran as well as Saudi Arabia,” the diplomat concluded.
How, and why, US data centers in the Gulf became targets of war
Al Mayadeen | March 6, 2026
The drone strikes that knocked Amazon Web Services facilities offline in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain this week were not random acts of escalation. They were, according to analysts and industry insiders, a calculated strike on infrastructure that the United States has quietly woven into its military architecture across West Asia.
Amazon and Google hold a $1.2 billion contract with the Israeli government to provide cloud computing and artificial intelligence services to entities, including the Israeli occupation forces.
That contract, largely absent from Western coverage of the strikes, may explain why AWS facilities, and not the dozens of data centers operated by local Gulf companies on behalf of US tech giants, were the ones that were hit.
“It would be easier to target AWS,” Ed Galvin, founder of data center research firm DC Byte, told Bloomberg, noting that other US tech services are typically housed within locally operated facilities, making them harder to identify and strike.
Of approximately 230 data centers built or under development across Gulf Arab states, only a handful are wholly owned and operated by a US company, according to DC Byte. All three struck this week belong to Amazon.
What was hit
The strikes took down two of AWS’s three availability zones in the UAE, one site located near Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai, according to DC Byte, and damaged a facility in Bahrain situated close to a local military base and the King Fahd Causeway connecting the island to Saudi Arabia.
Consumer services, including online banking, were disrupted across the region. In a statement to clients, AWS said it was working to restore services while urging customers to migrate workloads to data centers outside West Asia, acknowledging that “the broader operating environment in the Middle East remains unpredictable.”
What Western media outlets fail to mention is that the exchange has not been one-sided. “Israel” and the United States have struck at least two data centers in Tehran, according to Holistic Resilience, a nonprofit organisation that maps airstrike activity.
A new front in an old logic
Data centers have entered the battlefield as legitimate targets because they power surveillance systems, drone navigation, real-time analysis of satellite footage, and the digital backbone of modern military operations.
Attacking such facilities can “paralyze banks, paralyze government offices,” Daniel Efrati, chief executive of NED Data Centers, told Bloomberg. “If you have one minute of downtime, it can cost any organization millions.”
Soft targets with hard consequences
The physical vulnerability of these facilities has been laid bare by this week’s strikes. Data centers are sprawling, visible, and dependent on exposed infrastructure, e.g., cooling units, diesel generators, gas turbines, that can be disabled without a direct hit on the building itself.
“If you knock out some of the chillers you can take them fully offline,” Sam Winter-Levy, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Financial Times. Conventional data center security is designed to repel cyberattacks and physical intruders; it was not designed for drones.
Gulf AI ambitions under fire
The strikes land at a particularly fraught moment for Gulf states whose economic diversification strategies rest heavily on positioning themselves as global AI hubs. Saudi Arabia’s Humain and the UAE’s G42, both state-backed, have committed to vast data center clusters and signed major deals with Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft.
The UAE is constructing one of OpenAI’s “Stargate” facilities in Abu Dhabi. Microsoft announced last month it would open a new Azure facility in Saudi Arabia before the end of the year. Those ambitions now carry a new risk premium.
“The Gulf sold itself as a safe alternative to other markets,” Jessica Brandt, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told the Financial Times. “That argument just got harder to make.”
The new table stakes
Harder, but not necessarily fatal. Several analysts caution that the political and economic momentum behind Gulf AI investment is unlikely to be reversed by the strikes alone.
What has changed is the calculus around protection. “You can’t hide data centers,” Noah Sylvia, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, told Bloomberg. “But you can put air defence systems on them.”
One industry veteran based in the Gulf compared the situation to Intel’s chip manufacturing plants in “Israel,” ringed by military air defences, telling the Financial Times that for a project of Stargate’s scale, that kind of protection is now “table stakes.”
A global precedent
The broader implication reaches beyond the Gulf. “This is a harbinger of what’s to come,” Winter-Levy told the Financial Times, “and these types of attacks are not going to be limited to the Middle East.”
For the first time in history, the data centers that underpin the global digital economy have become a theater of war. The infrastructure the US built to project technological power across a volatile region has become a target precisely because of what it enables.
Iraq and Cuba hit by blackouts amid US pressure and attacks on Iran
RT | March 5, 2026
Both Iraq and Cuba have been plunged into nationwide blackouts, with the Middle Eastern country’s grid collapsing after a sudden drop in gas supplies to a major power plant in Basra, while the Caribbean island’s outage is being blamed on chronic fuel shortages worsened by the US blockade on Venezuelan oil.
The day before the Iraqi blackout, an Electricity Ministry spokesperson was quoted as saying that “incomplete supplies” of gas from neighboring Iran were already affecting power plant operations. Iran has been facing a massive US-Israeli air campaign since Saturday.
A separate power facility also experienced a shutdown in central Salah al-Din province, with local police explicitly denying reports that the station was targeted by an attack, according to the state-run INA news agency.
Iraq relies on Iranian gas for 30-40% of its power generation. The dependence is a direct consequence of decades of foreign intervention in the country. Before the 1991 Gulf War, the grid, though strained by sanctions, largely met demand. The war destroyed 75% of its generating capacity, and the 2003 US-led invasion caused a catastrophic collapse to less than 10% of prior output.
Blackouts also hit Cuba on Wednesday, with a widespread power outage plunging approximately two-thirds of the island into darkness, including the capital Havana.
The blackout was caused by a shutdown at one of the island’s largest thermoelectric power plants, according to the Cuban Ministry of Energy and Mines.
The island nation’s chronic fuel shortages have been severely exacerbated by a US blockade on oil from Venezuela. Since US forces abducted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January, Washington has seized multiple tankers bound for Cuba.
The Cuban government has long attributed its economic crisis to decades of US sanctions, which it says contribute directly to the lack of investment in power generation and its crumbling electric grid.
Against this backdrop, US President Donald Trump suggested last week that the US could carry out a “friendly takeover of Cuba,” claiming the island nation’s government is on the brink of collapse and is actively negotiating with Washington.
US-Israeli Efforts to Degrade Iran’s Missile Might Failed – Military Researcher
Sputnik – 05.03.2026
The intensity of Iranian missile attacks against the US and Israeli assets in the Middle East does not seem to abate, despite the United States’ claims to the contrary, Konstantin Sivkov, a member of the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences, tells Sputnik.
Despite losing a number of its missile launchers, as is expected during war, Iran has been successfully destroying US radar systems, satellite communication stations and data processing facilities in the region.
“Iran is striking at the target designation system – the brains, the decision making system, the early warning system,” Sivkov remarks.
Iranian missile launchers, he explains, are either deployed under extensive air defense protection or hidden in underground shelters, which they leave briefly to unleash their deadly payload upon the enemy.
The US military thus has a very brief window to track down and attack these launchers while they are in the open.
The active use of decoys by Iran also makes destroying these missile launchers problematic for the US.
Back during the Desert Storm op in 1991, some 70% of the initial US missile salvos launched at Iraq ended up striking decoys, and during the NATO air raids on former Yugoslavia, the number of munitions expended on decoys was even greater, Sivkov points out.
Meanwhile, Iran has the capability to produce new mobile missile launchers to replace the destroyed ones.
The United States’ reluctance to send more aircraft into Iranian airspace further suggests that the US’ claims that Iran’s air defense capabilities have been neutralized are also premature, he suggests, pointing out that the US seems to rely more on long-range missile strikes.
The US’ attempt to sic Kurdish factions on Iran is tantamount to admission that their airstrike campaign did not produce the desired result, Sivkov adds: the initial plan, to cause chaos by murdering the Iranian leadership and to install a puppet regime in the country, clearly failed.
New American copium: Ghost of Kuwait
By Drago Bosnic | March 5, 2026
As the unprovoked US aggression on Iran isn’t going as planned (mildly speaking), the mainstream propaganda machine desperately keeps trying to cope with the incompetence of the American military, particularly the failures of the USAF, which is often presented as “invincible”. This is especially true when it comes to the humiliating loss of three F-15E multirole strike fighters. The mainstream propaganda machine first reported that they “crashed due to a malfunction“, then that it was a “Patriot” SAM (surface-to-air missile) system and now it’s supposedly a Kuwaiti F/A-18 fighter jet. The only excuse that hasn’t been used yet is a bird strike (although such propaganda is not unheard of).
Namely, the Wall Street Journal claims that “a catastrophic ‘friendly fire’ incident” involving the Kuwaiti jet fighter resulted in “an accidental shootdown” of three American F-15s. To quote “anonymous US officials and those familiar with initial reports”, a Kuwaiti F/A-18 pilot launched three missiles at the American aircraft, resulting in the loss of all three jets. The incident was supposedly triggered by “an environment of extreme tension” and “a breakdown in battlefield identification”. The report says that shortly before the shootdown, an Iranian drone successfully penetrated Kuwaiti air defenses and struck “a tactical operations center at a commercial port, killing six US troops”.
In the immediate aftermath, Kuwaiti military forces were “on high alert and on edge”, so when their radar systems detected the three American F-15s entering the sector, “the operators, fearing a follow-up Iranian attack, engaged the targets”. And yet, the mainstream propaganda machine still fails to explain how exactly this “catastrophic friendly fire incident” unfolded. A spokesperson for US Central Command (CENTCOM) also declined to provide a detailed account, noting that the incident is currently under investigation. So far, it’s only been confirmed that the Kuwaiti F/A-18 is the primary focus, although officials still haven’t ruled out ground-based air defenses as potential culprits.
“It’s a busy, busy air environment, and in times of stress, tension, crisis, and, certainly in this case, conflict, even more so,” Mark Gunzinger, a retired USAF colonel who flew B-52 strategic bombers, said, adding: “It’s all the more complicated when you have different air defense systems operating on different frequencies that aren’t integrated, and some of those systems are actively trying to counter threats such as drones.”
Interestingly, the WSJ report acknowledges that “the official cause of the crash remains subject to change as investigators piece together the sequence of events”. In other words, the Pentagon is yet to think of the best propaganda narrative to avoid admitting that Russian-made Iranian SAM systems destroyed the three “invincible” American F-15s in mere minutes. Worse yet (for the US), it’s highly likely these air defenses were operated by Russian crews, which adds yet another layer of humiliation. Still, the copium continues, as these “unnamed military officials” point to “this tragedy as a stark illustration of the challenges inherent in modern, multinational air wars”.
They insist that “the airspace is currently a historically murky combination of manned aircraft, cruise missiles and drones” and that “American pilots have been flying continuous sorties alongside an array of 19 different types of aircraft — including tankers, reconnaissance planes, and bombers — all moving at different speeds and altitudes”. While it’s true that there’s aerial congestion and that it’s exacerbated by long-range missile exchanges (the US military is launching cruise missiles and other standoff munitions, while Iran responds with waves of ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones), it still doesn’t justify all the pretexts about “friendly fire”. On the contrary, it makes all this even more embarrassing.
Retired Lieutenant General Dan Karbler, who formerly led the Army’s Space and Missile Defense Command, said that “today’s airspace is significantly more complex than during the Iraq wars of the 1990s and 2000s”, insisting that “fratricide incidents typically result from multiple failures in communication or equipment”. The report says that “investigators are now scrutinizing whether the F-15s’ Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) transponders were functioning, whether the Kuwaitis were briefed on the American flight paths and whether electronic jamming interfered with voice communications”. However, while all this could’ve certainly malfunctioned on one jet, the chances of it happening to all three simultaneously are virtually zero.
It’s expected to see the Pentagon so desperate to wiggle its way out of the PR hit caused by such a defeat. However, it should be noted that the entire narrative about the F-15’s alleged “invincibility” was based on unadulterated lies and attempts to suppress all reports about combat losses. Namely, there’s a 2018 video of a Saudi F-15SA hit by a Houthi R-27T modified into a SAM. Several more aircraft were hit, with at least one more F-15SA destroyed. There were reports that multiple aircraft were scrapped due to severe damage, although the mainstream propaganda machine keeps hiding facts to maintain the F-15’s “invincible streak” narrative alive for as long as possible.
However, the F-15’s performance in previous conflicts makes this virtually impossible. Namely, during the Samurra Air Battle on January 30, 1991, two Iraqi Air Force Russian-made MiG-25PDS shot down two F-15Cs without losses. The Americans never admitted these losses, but they made sure that no wreckage was ever found. Almost a decade before that, a Syrian MiG-21 shot down an Israeli F-15, with the US and Israel once again doing their best to conceal the loss. However, it was recorded by Syrian and Russian sources. The financial aspect of the latest losses is also not negligible. Namely, an older F-15E cost over $30 million in the late 1990s, while the newest F-15EX variants have a price tag of nearly $100 million each.
Worse yet, old F-15Es cannot be replaced, because their production ended in 2001. Thus, the damage caused by this defeat goes far beyond just three airframes. Another question is, will the mainstream propaganda machine now publish “breaking news” about the “Ghost of Kuwait”? It would certainly make more sense than what they tried doing in NATO-occupied Ukraine with the mythical “Ghost of Kiev”. In the meantime, we already see that the Trump administration is engaging in full-blown copium, going from claims that it would defeat Iran in 24 hours to days and weeks. Soon, it could be months, while heavy losses and damage to US occupation forces in the Middle East keep piling up.
Drago Bosnic is an independent geopolitical and military analyst.
US racks up billions in losses during first four days of war as Iran pummels key Pentagon assets: Report
The Cradle | March 4, 2026
Iran’s retaliatory strikes on US assets in the Persian Gulf have caused at least $2 billion in losses for Washington since the start of the war against the Islamic Republic, Anadolu Agency reported on 4 March.
Almost fifty percent of the losses result from Iran’s destruction of a US AN/FPS-132 early warning radar system at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which is worth $1.1 billion.
The Islamic Republic also took responsibility for shooting down three F-15E Strike Eagles over Kuwait on Sunday, an incident US Central Command (CENTCOM) claims was caused by “friendly fire” from Kuwaiti forces. The estimated cost to replace the jets is $282 million.
Attacks by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Forces (IRGC) also caused heavy damage to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, Bahrain, destroying two satellite communications terminals and several large buildings.
“Using open-source intelligence reports, the targeted SATCOM terminals were identified as AN/GSC-52Bs, which approximately cost $20 million, factoring in deployment and installation costs,” Anadolu Agency reports.
Tehran has also reported destroying the AN/TPY-2 radar component of Washington’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) air-defense system deployed at Al-Ruwais Industrial City in the UAE, estimated to be worth $500 million.
“Combining these costs, Iran has damaged $1.902 billion worth of US military assets in the region,” the Turkish news agency says.
On top of these losses, Washington spent at least $2.3 billion during the first four days of the war, which was launched without congressional approval by using post-9/11 emergency laws.
The first 24 hours of the so-called “Operation Epic Fury” alone cost around $779 million, including pre-strike mobilization expenses of $630 million.
“At the current scale of operations, a three-week war could easily exceed tens of billions of dollars in expenses,” the Center for American Progress (CAP) estimated on Tuesday.
The US public policy research and advocacy organization also emphasized that “a conservative estimate for the initial costs of Operation Epic Fury is more than $5 billion as of March 2—and the campaign is just getting started.”
More losses still need to be accounted for, as the IRGC and its regional allies have targeted at least seven US military sites across West Asia since the start of the war, destroying several US diplomatic missions and intelligence sites belonging to the CIA and Mossad.
US and Israeli Claims of Depleted Iranian Arsenals are Just Military Propaganda – Expert
By Ekaterina Blinova – Sputnik – 05.03.2026
American officials claim Iran’s arsenal is dwindling and launchers are running low — but there’s no objective proof, veteran Russian military observer Yury Lyamin, senior researcher at the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, tells Sputnik.
“Such statements should be treated with great skepticism and seen as standard military propaganda,” Yury Lyamin says. “I believe Iran’s total number of launchers is generally underestimated.”
Yes, the number of missile launches has dropped – but why?
- the decline in launches is largely due to constant air pressure, forcing Iranian forces to take maximum precautions
- US and Israeli strikes on tunnel entrances at missile bases require time to clear debris and carry out safety checks
“Iran’s main missile stockpiles and launcher reserves are stored deep within underground missile bases carved into mountains, making them extremely difficult to hit. Moreover, it’s unclear how they are moved inside,” the pundit explains.
Lyamin draws attention to the fact that Iran keeps its missile launchers as simple and inexpensive as possible – they’re typically mounted on standard trailers and trucks. That allows the Islamic Republic to maintain a substantial storage of those devices.
US vs. Israel: Conflicting Assessments Stir Controversy
The Israeli side claim that “more than half” of all Iranian missile launchers have been destroyed, whereas the US insists Iran is “running out” of them.
Israeli figures are also questionable, according to the expert:
- Israel claimed 300 launchers destroyed two days ago, but videos from the US and Israel show roughly a tenth of that
- While it’s true not everything is captured on video, the huge discrepancy warrants skepticism
Even within the video evidence provided by Israel and the US, there are questionable cases, according to the expert:
- Some strikes appear to have hit ordinary trucks mistaken for launchers
- One video even shows a strike on a broken truck with its hood open
- In another, a launcher that had already been destroyed was hit repeatedly
Larry Johnson: AIR POWER CANNOT BEAT an ENTRENCHED ENEMY LIKE IRAN
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive – March 4, 2026
Larry Johnson argues that Iran will not back down because it sees the conflict as existential, while the U.S. lacks the long-term resolve to sustain another major war—citing failures since the Vietnam War.
He claims Iran has effectively neutralized much of the U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf, rendering bases such as Al Udeid Air Base, Prince Sultan Air Base, and U.S. naval facilities in Bahrain combat-ineffective, and destroying key radar systems. He argues that airpower alone—referencing “shock and awe” from the Iraq War—cannot secure victory without ground forces.
The discussion questions statements by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, contrasting his current rhetoric with past criticism of U.S. interventionism. The speaker suggests current leadership is overstating progress and creating unrealistic expectations that Iran will soon collapse.
He further argues that despite heavy bombardment, Iran remains capable of striking Israel and that damage inside Israeli cities is being underreported due to social media censorship. He claims missile defenses such as Patriot, THAAD, and Iron Dome are being depleted or are ineffective.
Strategically, he contends the U.S. and Israel lack the capacity to conquer Iran, noting its vast size, mountainous terrain, and the logistical impossibility of a ground invasion—drawing comparisons to difficulties in Afghanistan. He also points to Israel’s ongoing struggle in the Gaza Strip since October 2023 as evidence that overwhelming airpower does not guarantee political or military victory.
Overall, the speaker concludes that U.S. leadership is misrepresenting the situation, underestimating Iran’s resilience, and setting itself up for strategic and political failure.
