The Math Is In: Why the US Has Already Lost Two Wars /Lt Col Daniel Davis
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive – August 13, 2026
Glenn Diesen | August 17, 2026
David N. Gibbs is a professor of history at the University of Arizona.
Debate on the CIA and academia: David Gibbs and Robert Jervis
Article in the Los Angeles Times on the CIA-academic nexus: https://irp.fas.org/news/2001/01/lat012801.html
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Glenn Diesen | August 16, 2026
Prof. Seyed Mohammad Marandi is a professor at Tehran University and a former advisor to Iran’s nuclear negotiation team.
Glenn Diesen clip channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Prof.GlennDiesenClips
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The HighWire with Del Bigtree | August 13, 2026
The FDA has approved Moderna’s mRNA flu vaccine, but questions are mounting about how it evaluated safety and efficacy, including the lack of a true placebo-controlled trial.
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive – August 14, 2026
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive – August 13, 2026
By Jill Erzen | The Defender | August 14, 2026
Moderna’s own clinical trial data raise serious questions about whether the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) should have approved the company’s new mRNA flu vaccine, medical commentator John Campbell, Ph.D., said.
In a recent video, Campbell argued that the study shows only a small reduction in flu cases while reporting substantially higher rates of adverse reactions among people who received the shot.
The FDA approved Moderna’s mFlusiva this month for adults ages 50-64, with accelerated approval for adults 65 and older. It is the first mRNA flu vaccine licensed in the U.S.
Moderna said it expects the vaccine to be available for the 2026-27 respiratory virus season.
Campbell also questioned why the approval came just one year after the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced a coordinated federal wind-down of mRNA vaccine development.
“One quick year later, FDA approves Moderna flu vaccines,” Campbell said. “I don’t understand the way the U.S. work[s], but it would appear that HHS isn’t in charge.”
Efficacy of mRNA flu vaccine is ‘not very impressive’
Moderna’s Phase 3 trial, published in The New England Journal of Medicine, enrolled 40,703 participants, with roughly half receiving the experimental mRNA vaccine and the other half receiving a standard flu vaccine. Participants were followed for a median of 181 days.
Laboratory-confirmed flu occurred in 2.0% of participants who received the mRNA vaccine, compared with 2.8% of those who received the standard vaccine. Moderna described those results as showing a relative vaccine efficacy of 26.6%.
“Not very impressive, to be quite honest,” Campbell said.
He noted that the study showed a risk reduction of less than 1%.
“If you’re going from a 2.0% absolute to a 2.8% absolute,” Campbell said, “I would say that’s not a 26.6% relative risk improvement — although it is statistically. But it’s a 0.8% absolute risk reduction.”
“So, do you want to take a new influenza mRNA vaccine to give you a 0.8% reduced chance of getting influenza in absolute terms? Your choice,” he said.
‘Completely unacceptable increase in the adverse reactions’
Campbell said the study showed substantially higher rates of nearly every reported adverse reaction among mRNA vaccine recipients compared with those who received the standard flu vaccine.
Injection-site pain was reported by 65.8% of mRNA vaccine recipients, compared with 29.8% of those who received the standard vaccine. Fatigue occurred in 45.1% versus 20.3%, headache in 37.8% versus 18.0%, and muscle pain in 35.4% versus 11.6%.
Campbell said the disparity extended across nearly every category of reported reactions.
“Injection site pain, way more … in the mRNA group. Redness more in the mRNA group. Swelling more in the mRNA group,” he said. “Six times more fevers in the mRNA group compared to the traditional vaccine group. … Joint pain, way more common … nausea and vomiting, more common … and chills, again, way more common in the mRNA group.”
“A completely unacceptable increase in the adverse reactions there,” he added.
mRNA flu vaccine group showed ‘6.4 times more’ potentially serious reactions
Campbell then turned to the study’s more serious adverse reactions.
Serious adverse events were reported in 2.2% of participants who received the mRNA vaccine, according to the study.
The trial also tracked Grade 3 solicited adverse reactions, which are more severe reactions that can interfere with normal activities or require medical attention. Grade 3 reactions occurred in 6.4% of mRNA recipients — “More than 1 in 20,” Campbell said — versus 1.0% of those who received the standard flu vaccine.
He compared the difference with the vaccine’s reported risk reduction in flu cases.
“So 6.4 times more adverse events, Grade 3, potentially more serious adverse events, in the mRNA group for a 0.8% absolute risk reduction according to their own figures,” Campbell said. “I really wonder why [the FDA] approved this.”
The trial also reported adverse events of special interest among mRNA vaccine recipients, including thrombocytopenia, a condition involving low platelet counts, and cardiomyopathy, which has been linked to COVID-19 mRNA vaccines.
“Looks like a bit of a no-brainer to me,” Campbell said of the mRNA flu vaccine. “I certainly wouldn’t be having it on those figures.”
‘Are you going to be queuing up? I’m not’
Campbell said his review focused on Moderna’s published trial data but noted that the study does not address broader concerns about mRNA technology.
“We could talk for ages about the lipid nanoparticles and other complications,” he said. “I’m just keeping this to what’s in the paper.”
He said lipid nanoparticles distribute throughout the body, allowing cells in different organs to produce the vaccine antigen. He argued that those cells could then become targets of the immune system.
Previously published studies have linked COVID-19 mRNA vaccines to myocarditis and pericarditis, seizures and cancers.
“Given that information, are you going to be queuing up?” Campbell asked. “I’m not.”
‘They’re not really very safe and not particularly effective’
Campbell’s concerns about the mRNA flu vaccine also led him to question U.S. health policy.
In August 2025, U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority would terminate funding for 22 mRNA vaccines in development.
At the time, HHS said it had “reviewed the science, listened to the experts, and acted.”
The department said the funding was being terminated because “the data show these vaccines fail to protect effectively against upper respiratory infections like COVID and flu.”
Campbell said the FDA’s approval of Moderna’s mRNA flu vaccine appears to conflict with that policy.
“And yet a year later, here we have it approved,” he said. “Who’s in charge here? Is it not the HHS that’s in charge?”
HHS said in 2025 that it was “shifting that funding toward safer, broader vaccine platforms that remain effective even as viruses mutate.” The agency also emphasized that it supports “safe, effective vaccines for every American who wants them.”
Campbell challenged that claim as well.
“We’ve seen that they’re not really very safe and not particularly effective,” he said, adding, “Who wants them?”
This article was originally published by The Defender — Children’s Health Defense’s News & Views Website under Creative Commons license CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Please consider subscribing to The Defender or donating to Children’s Health Defense.
Tales of the American Empire | August 13, 2026
American foreign policy has supported the Greater Israel project since the 9-11 terror attacks. This would greatly expand the size of Israel and kill or displace millions of Arabs. Iran is not a target for Israeli expansion, but is a powerful nation that supports resistance to the genocidal Greater Israel agenda. When the Trump administration entered office in early 2025, there was news they may fulfill the Zionist dream of attacking and destroying Iran.
Since President Trump ran as an anti-war candidate, war with Iran was irrational because it was risky and unlikely to succeed. A year ago, Tales of the American Empire produced “War with Iran is Foolish”, which is linked in the description. It explains that attacking Iran would fail and lead to an economic disaster. Unfortunately, greedy and insane people have taken control our nation, to include Donald Trump and most US Congressmen.
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Related Tales:
“War with Iran is Foolish”;
• War with Iran is Foolish
“Why the Strait of Hormuz is Not Irrelevant”; What’s Going on With Shipping?; August 9, 2026;
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“The MOST DANGEROUS WARHAWKS in MEDIA /Lt Col Daniel Davis”; Deep Dive; August 3, 2026;
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Al-Mayadeen | August 10, 2026
Iran believes it has fundamentally altered the balance of power with the United States and now has a narrow opportunity to convert its position into lasting strategic and economic gains, Johns Hopkins University Professor Vali Nasr argued in an interview on Switzerland with Tom Switzer.
Speaking alongside University of Chicago political scientist John Mearsheimer, Nasr said Washington has struggled to accept how dramatically its position has changed following the prolonged war on Iran, particularly as Tehran retains leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. The interview was conducted by host Tom Switzer, who introduced Nasr as a leading Iran expert and Mearsheimer as a political scientist.
“There’s a consensus that they have defeated the superpower, at least put it on its heels,” Nasr said of the view inside Iran, arguing that Tehran sees little reason to moderate its position while it holds the advantage.
Iran sees narrow window to press advantage
Nasr rejected arguments circulating in Washington that Tehran is “overplaying its hand,” saying such assessments reflected disbelief at the extent to which the balance had shifted.
“In reality, Iran is not overplaying its hands. It’s just playing its hand,” he said.
According to Nasr, Iranian policymakers believe they have a limited period in which to secure the maximum possible strategic advantage.
“They think they have a narrow window to get the maximum amount of strategic advantage from having turned the table on the US,” he said, adding that Iranian leaders would consider it a major mistake not to press their advantage while Washington remains on the defensive.
That calculation extends to sanctions relief, frozen Iranian assets, compensation, and Iran’s position in the Strait of Hormuz. Nasr described Tehran’s approach as accepting immediate economic hardship in exchange for potentially much greater long-term gains.
Mearsheimer: US has ‘no choice’
Mearsheimer offered an even sharper assessment, arguing that Washington no longer possesses an effective means of forcing Tehran to abandon its position over the Strait.
Asked why US President Donald Trump would accept an arrangement under which Iran exercises substantial control over passage through Hormuz, Mearsheimer replied, “It’s very simple, Tom. He has no choice. He lost the war. This is a devastating defeat for the United States.”
He added that Trump “has no cards here,” arguing that Washington’s principal threat — further military escalation — had become increasingly difficult to carry out.
According to Mearsheimer, the United States faces both depleted munitions stocks and resistance from Gulf allies fearful that another escalation would trigger Iranian attacks on oil infrastructure, desalination facilities, and other critical installations.
Weapons shortages expose limits of US campaign
Nasr similarly argued that Washington’s weapons shortages had sharply reduced its ability to continue the campaign.
“It’s clear that the US doesn’t have the munitions, either offensive munitions or defensive munitions to keep bombing Iran,” he said, arguing that another month of fighting ultimately left Iran stronger and Washington weaker.
Mearsheimer said US military leaders had warned Trump before the war about limited stocks and the dangers of a prolonged confrontation. He argued that a major factor behind the end of the 40-day air campaign was that Washington was “running out of munitions.”
Nasr said the implications reach beyond West Asia, arguing that China and Russia would draw conclusions from the United States’ difficulty rapidly replacing sophisticated weapons during a prolonged war.
Distrust shapes Tehran’s negotiating position
Nasr stressed that Iran’s negotiating posture is also being driven by deep distrust of Trump and Washington.
He cited Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement in 2018, attacks launched while negotiations were underway, and what Tehran viewed as Washington’s failure to uphold subsequent understandings.
Trump has created “such distrust about himself with Iranians” that even accepting Tehran’s terms might no longer be enough without guarantees that Washington would implement an agreement, Nasr said.
That distrust, he argued, explains why Iran wants concessions delivered upfront rather than postponed to future negotiations.
The earlier June 17 memorandum had envisaged reopening the Strait, lifting oil sanctions, and establishing a ceasefire that also covered Lebanon, while wider sanctions, reparations, and frozen assets would be addressed later.
Nasr said Tehran concluded that Washington subsequently undermined that arrangement, including its provisions related to Lebanon, reinforcing the view that Iran should secure tangible benefits before relinquishing leverage.
‘Even bigger defeat for Israel’
Both scholars also framed the outcome as a major strategic setback for “Israel”.
Mearsheimer described the result as a “humiliating defeat” for Washington before adding, “I believe it’s an even bigger defeat for Israel.”
He argued that Israeli officials were reluctant to acknowledge “the extent to which Iran has defeated not just the United States, but Israel,” predicting that both “Israel” and its supporters in Washington would seek to undo any agreement favorable to Tehran in the future.
Nasr later argued that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had “overreached in Lebanon and Iran,” describing them as wars “Israel” could not win and saying “Israel” had been “strategically defeated”.
For Nasr, the larger consequence is a regional order increasingly different from the one Washington sought to impose. Iran, he argued, now sees an opportunity not simply to end the current confrontation, but to use the outcome to reduce the US military threat around its borders, ease its economic isolation and consolidate its position as a major regional power.