Von Der Leyen’s Proposal to Reduce Heating Temperature by 2 Degrees ‘Naive’, Analysts Say
Samizdat – 21.06.2022
BRUSSELS – The proposal voiced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to lower domestic thermostats in Europe by 2 degrees Celsius to replace gas supplies from Russia’s Nord Stream 1 is “incredibly naive,” energy experts said on Tuesday.
On Monday, the EC head said that Europeans can replace gas supplies coming via Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline by lowering the heating or air conditioner temperatures by 2 degrees, adding that the EU has comprehensive emergency plans in place, including energy savings.
Samuele Furfari, a professor of geopolitics of energy at ULB university in Brussels, believes that von der Leyen’s proposal is “ridiculous,” as a two-degree reduction in heating cannot replace energy demand of 194 million European households.
“It is incredibly naive of the President of the European Commission to present a 2-degree reduction in domestic heating, for more than 194 million households in the Europe at 27 [countries], as a solution to the end of the supply of Russian gas by Nord Stream 1. It is moreover only the capacity of Nord Stream 1 which would be ‘covered’ by this theoretical and simplistic reduction. There are other gas pipelines delivering Russian gas. She even specifies, since the commission seems to have thought about this ridiculous idea, that it would also apply to air conditioning. We navigate in a pure dream,” Furfari said.
Gas demand is inelastic, so Europe cannot lower the heating in hospitals or schools, and it is “a dream” to believe that EU residents will simply comply with von der Leyen’s proposal, which will “hit people hard” in their comfort zone, he added.
“How are we going to apply this theoretical measure seriously? By installing ‘limited’ room thermostats, such as for car or motorcycle engines? Are we being prepared for Orwell’s society? No EU government is going to accept that Brussels gives them temperature reduction instructions or face sanctions. I am not even talking about the electricity market, which does not work in Europe, with the emphasis wrongly put on pseudo-renewable energies. Obviously, the European Commission is totally stuck, and Brussels does not know what to do. There is no other solution than that of Russian gas supplies for a long time to come. We are waiting for the next ‘brilliant’ idea from the European Commission,” Furfari said.
According to the professor, 70% of the gas consumed in Europe is allocated to the production of heat, and even when Germany relaunches its coal power stations, which emit large amounts of CO2, it will be far too little to compensate for the loss of gas.
Damien Ernst, a Liege university professor in Belgium and a specialist of electromechanical engineering and energy, said that von der Leyen’s proposal shows how much the EU is “at a loss.”
“Europe will suffer terribly in terms of energy prices and scarcity. This astonishing reaction from Ursula von der Leyen is even scary, as she is so naive, and shows how much the EU is at a loss. The EU is not going to send armies of controllers to check the ambient temperature in people’s homes. At best, Europe can only carry out awareness campaigns on the need to save energy,” Ernst said.
If there is a signal that the price will become “astronomically high,” people and businesses will spontaneously reduce their consumption, causing a sharp decrease in demand and reducing the competitiveness of European producers compared to those from Asia and the US, Ernst explained.
“Europe has it all wrong,” he lamented.
AfD spokesman in the Bundestag Economic Affairs and Energy Committee Steffen Kotre, in turn, said that the EC head should advise her German colleagues to immediately open the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, instead of proposing to reduce domestic heating.
“Mrs von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, should advise Germany to open Nord Stream 2 immediately to compensate for the loss of throughput of Nord Stream 1, and to restart German nuclear power plants for electricity production, rather than make ridiculous statements about the energy savings Europeans should make by reducing their thermostat to compensate for Europe’s misguided policy in the Ukrainian conflict. It would impose a loss of comfort to all the citizens of the union,” Kotre said.
According to the expert, the German federal government is endangering the country’s future with its “energy policy narrow-mindedness,” and the six nuclear power plants, which were shut down at the end of 2021, or scheduled to be shut down at the end of 2022, could replace a significant part of Russia’s natural gas, which is converted into electricity. To cover the rest, the phase-out of Russian gas must be halted.
“Minister [Robert] Habeck’s energy policy is driving our country against a wall,” the professor concluded.
EU Commission comments on Lithuania’s restrictions
Samizdat | June 21, 2022
The EU Commission reiterated its support for Lithuania’s decision to heavily restrict the transit of goods to Kaliningrad Region, Russia. At a regular press conference on Tuesday, European Commission chief spokesman Eric Mamer said the country has merely implemented the EU sanctions on Russia rather than imposing an economic blockade.
“We’re not talking about the Commission giving a recommendation to a country. This is a member state implementing decisions that they have taken when it comes to the sanctions against Russia. And Lithuania is basically doing what it is supposed to do under the sanctions regime,” Mamer stated, noting that the bloc’s stance was “extensively” explained by top EU diplomat Josep Borrell a day before.
Speaking at a press conference on Monday, Borrell insisted that Vilnius’ move does not constitute a blockade against the small exclave sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, but was merely the implementation of the EU’s sanctions on Moscow, imposed over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. On Saturday, Lithuania’s national railway operator banned the flow of sanctioned goods between the region and the rest of Russia, citing instructions from the European Commission.
“Lithuania has not taken any unilateral national restrictions. But, in accordance with European Union sanctions, there are import and export restrictions that apply in relation with certain goods, including the prohibition of transit from those goods through European Union territory. Lithuania is doing nothing else than implementing the guidelines provided by the Commission,” Borrell stated.
A similar take on the situation was given by senior Lithuanian officials. Earlier on Tuesday, Lithuanian PM Ingrida Simonyte told public broadcaster LRT that the decision was based on the sanctions imposed by the EU, and not an attempt to escalate tensions with Russia. The flow of non-sanctioned goods and passenger transit will continue uninterrupted, she said.
The Russian government labeled the move an “economic blockade” of Kaliningrad Region, saying it violates the country’s international obligations to ensure the uninterrupted transit of goods to the exclave. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Vilnius’ decision was unprecedented, and in “violation of anything and everything.”
The head of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolay Patrushev, warned that the ongoing “blockade” will trigger a response from Moscow that will “have a serious negative impact on the people of Lithuania.”
“Of course, Russia will respond to hostile actions. Appropriate measures are in the works, and will be adopted in the near future,” Patrushev told reporters during a visit to Kaliningrad on Tuesday.
Lithuania illegally blocking Kaliningrad
By Lucas Leiroz | June 21, 2022
European authorities are stopping the transit of Russian goods in the Kaliningrad region, which is officially a part of the Russian territory. Such a measure tends to significantly increase tensions on the European continent and contribute negatively at a time of major concerns about international peace and security.
On June 18, the governor of Kaliningrad Anton Alikhanov reported to media agencies that the Lithuanian state-owned company “Lithuania Railways” has banned the rail transport in the Russia’s Kaliningrad territory regarding all sanctioned goods, entirely isolating the Russian exclave in Europe. Apparently, the reason for such a radical measure would have been the international pressure exerted by the rest of Europe for Lithuania to comply with the “EU’s restrictions”.
Commenting on the case, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said that “this is not a Lithuanian decision. These are European sanctions that came into force on June 17, and the railways are now applying the sanctions”.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell confirmed the Lithuanian minister’s words and tried to “defuse” the situation, saying that there is no blockade, as only goods that have received sanctions are being barred from transit:
“There is no blockade. The land transit between Kaliningrad and other parts of Russia has not been banned. Second, transit of people and goods that are not sanctioned continues. Third, Lithuania has not taken any unilateral national restrictions. (…) We are in a precautionary mood. We will double-check the legal aspects in order to verify that we are completely aligned with any kind of rule. (…) But Lithuania is not guilty. It is not implementing national sanctions. It is not implementing their will. Whatever they are doing has been the consequence of previous consultation with the commission, which has provided guidelines”.
What seems unacceptable, however, is the fact that such pressure is aimed at blocking the transit of products inside the Russian sovereign space, preventing them from leaving Kaliningrad and reaching the rest of Russian territory. No country has the right to prevent another from transporting its goods to other parts of its own territory. In this case, it is not just about “sanctions against Russia”, but about an illegal attitude that violates all elementary norms and principles of public international law.
Stating that there is simply “no blockade” as the restrictions are only being applied to sanctioned products sounds also totally inappropriate. In addition to obstructing Russian intra-territorial traffic, the products sanctioned by the West are precisely those of greater strategic value, which directly affect Moscow’s national interests. Kaliningrad is undoubtedly isolated at this time and the consequences of this isolation strongly affect both the rest of the Russian territory and the one million Russian citizens who inhabit the exclave.
The Russian government expressed its concern about the case, as can be seen in the words of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov: “This decision is truly unprecedented. It is a violation of everything. We understand it to be connected to the relevant decision made by the European Union – to extend sanctions to transit. We also consider it illegal (…) We need a serious, in-depth analysis to work out our response decisions”.
In the same vein, Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov made it clear that Moscow reserves the right to respond to illegal attitudes on the part of the Lithuanian State, stating that Russia will defend its interests in the face of the European attempt to prevent the transit of goods between Kaliningrad and the rest of the national territory.
“If the transit of goods between Kaliningrad and the rest of the territory of the Russian Federation through Lithuania is not fully restored soon, then Russia reserves the right to take measures in defense of its national interests”, he said.
It is also necessary to remember that Western think tanks have long suggested that NATO “seize” Kaliningrad. The matter has come to light more recently, after the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, with US and European experts suggesting this type of attitude to be considered as a response to a possible escalation of tensions. Obviously, the current blockade further intensifies Moscow’s concerns about this possible scenario.
There are two possible scenarios for the near future in the face of this new escalation of the European security crisis: either Lithuania immediately breaks the blockade or Russia will respond in some way, probably through the intensification of military naval activities using the Baltic Fleet. Vilnius must act in some way, either sovereignly, refusing to comply with abusive and hostile EU impositions or through diplomatic mediation with the rest of the bloc so that sanctions are eased so that the end of the rail blockade is achieved.
Lucas Leiroz is a researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant.
‘Stop NATO,’ protesters chant at massive rally in heart of EU
Samizdat | June 20, 2022
A trade union-organized protest numbering 70,000 to 80,000 demonstrators packed the streets of Brussels on Monday, bringing the city to a standstill. In addition to expressing anger at the rising cost of living in Belgium, many condemned the US-led NATO alliance and its involvement in the Ukrainian conflict.
Trade unions said that 80,000 people attended the protest, while police said that the turnout was closer to 70,000, Reuters reported. In addition to packing the streets, the protest led to mass cancellations of flights at Brussels Airport, as unions representing security personnel went on strike. Public transit routes around the city were also operating at drastically reduced capacity.
Inflation hit 9% in Belgium in June, a four-decade high. With spending power declining, protesters demanded salary hikes and tax cuts.
However, many linked their dire economic straits to the EU’s sanctions regime on Russia and with the NATO alliance’s rush to arm Ukraine.
Protesters demanded that their leaders “spend money on salaries, not on weapons,” and chanted “stop NATO.”
While similar protests against rising costs have taken place across Europe as of late – thousands of trade unionists marched in London on Saturday – few have linked the soaring prices with the actions of NATO and its members.
Just three months ago, some protesters in Brussels waved Ukrainian flags and demanded that the EU cut itself off from “Putin’s Oil.” Weeks before that, there was a demonstration outside European Parliament buildings calling for “sanctions for Russia.”
Brussels is home to headquarters of both the EU and NATO. It was also the city from where US President Joe Biden chose to announce a round of sanctions on Moscow in March, before immediately telling a reporter that “sanctions never deter” those targeted by them.
Despite predicting in April that these measures would “wipe out the last 15 years of Russia’s economic gains,” Russia’s energy earnings have hit record levels since February, and the Russian ruble is currently at a seven-year high against the euro.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused European countries of committing economic “suicide” via sanctions, and predicted last week that the EU’s “direct losses” from this sanctions policy “could exceed $400 billion in a year.”
European Commission approved Lithuania blockade of Russia’s Kaliningrad
Samizdat | June 20, 2022
Lithuania’s decision to block the transit of goods by rail from Russia to Kaliningrad – the country’s western-most exclave that sits between Poland and Lithuania – was made after consulting and getting the approval of the European Commission, Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsberg said on Monday.
Landsberg made the statement during an EU foreign ministers meeting, where he explained that starting June 17, Lithuania would no longer allow the transit of sanctioned goods through its territory. “This decision was made after consultations with the European Commission and implemented under its guidance,” the minister said.
Last week, Kaliningrad Region Governor Anton Alikhanov warned that the authorities in Vilnius were planning to cut the rail transit of goods from other parts of Russia to the region.
On Saturday, Lithuania’s state-owned rail operator confirmed it would partially halt the transportation of goods to Kaliningrad, which Alikhanov claims will affect up to 50% of all cargo flow to the region.
Russian officials have stated that Lithuanian’s move is an egregious breach of international law and akin to a full blown economic blockade and an attempt to “place the region in an economic chokehold.”
Russia has warned that unless the ‘blockade’ of Kaliningrad is lifted immediately, Moscow may have no choice but to “untie its hands” and rectify the situation by any means necessary.
Many countries, including EU member states, imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia in response to the military campaign in Ukraine launched by Moscow in late February. The European bloc closed its airspace to Russian aircraft on February 27, and Moscow responded in kind, banning many European airlines.
Weapons shipped to Ukraine being sold in black markets
By Uriel Araujo | June 20, 2022
The same way sanctions are not working and are backfiring, Western massive arms transfers to Kiev have been a disaster, from anyone’s perspective. In an interview to US “National Defense”, Ukrainian Army Brigadier General Volodymyr Karpenko has admitted his country lost almost 50% of all weaponry and equipment it received. Some of it got destroyed, but that is not the whole story.
Russian Channel One reported on how the Ukrainian military abandons weapons as they retreat. The abandoned US-made Javelins and German anti-tank mines were filmed. Moreover, weaponry sent to Ukraine is ending up in black markets and is being sold in the so-called darknet and deep web platforms. There, one can buy Javellin anti-tank systems for about $ 30,000 or British NLAW systems for half the price. There is a demand for that, of course. Terrorists and criminal gangs are the buyers.
This situation has alarmed the Interpol and other international and European bodies. Already on May 28, Europol director Catherine De Bolle voiced her concerns about the war increasing the inpourring of arms into the continent’s black markets. Such weapons could reach political players in the Middle East involved in local conflicts, and spread all over the region, even reaching currently unstable locations such as Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, and Egypt. Arms shipments to Bosnia, Kosovo and Albania are in fact being investigated and such can aggravate the security problem in the Balkans – and in the Sahel also.
The so-called Islamic State or ISIS, the terrorist organization also known as the Daesh, is reorganizing itself this time in the Sahel, according to Victoria Nuland herself (the US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs), who has stated so in May. There are reports that criminal groups in Albania and Kosovo are selling arms to ISIS.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated on June 9 that “arms shipment to Ukraine will lead to the emergence of an arms black market, especially in Western Europe.” Interpol Secretary General Jurgen Stock has voiced similar concerns about Africa and the Balkans becoming the destination of Western arms supplied to Kiev, as reported by Le Figaro news. He said: “The wide availability of weapons during the current conflict will lead to the proliferation of illicit weapons in the post-conflict phase.” Actually, this is already happening, as seen in the dark web.
It is a well known fact that the Ukrainian armed forces are incredibly corrupt. Ukraine has long been believed to be one of the major arms trafficking markets in Europe. It has also emerged as an import transit destination for drugs such as heroin. It has the third highest criminality score of 33 countries in Europe. In today’s world, illict trade plays a major role in the financing of terrorist and extremist networks globally.
In November last year a club in Kiev was the target of a homophobic terrorist attack. It was stormed by masked men and later an explosive device was thrown at the building. Centuria, a Ukrainian paramilitary group with links to the Azov Regiment (formerly known as the Azov Battalion) seems to be behind the crime. No one was killed, but this ultra-nationalist group already patrols Ukraine’s cities. With the war, the migration crisis and the black market, Europe could see armed groups and terrorist attacks such as these spreading to its capitals.
In 2019 a senior Daesh leader, Al-Bara Shishani, was arrested in Ukraine and Azov leaders are known to sympathize with the group, even adopting some of its tactics. As early as 2015, collaboration between Islamic radicals and Ukrainian militias has been reported.
In December 2021, before the current crisis, I wrote that should a war ensue, Ukraine would be defeated by Russia (for a number of reasons), but far-right Ukrainian groups – aided and armed by NATO and possibly by Turkish ultra-nationalist networks – could remain active in sabotage and terrorism operations, thus turning the “post-conflict” phase into a long nightmarish “frozen conflict” scenario of counter-insurgency and irregular warfare.
Amid the humanitarian catastrophe, I wrote, the European continent should expect an increase in terrorism and crime amid an increasing migration crisis. Of course most of the refugees are law-abiding families escaping the tragedy of war, but paramilitary men and extremists can make their way into Western Europe too – and Ukrainian Neo-Nazism has been largely white-washed. European far-right militias already cooperate with Ukraine’s nationalists, and the country is already a new hub for far-right activity. Isaac Kfir, a Charles Sturt University Professor and part of the International Institute for Justice and the Rule of Law advisory board, has warned that Ukraine has the potential to become “the Syria of the extreme right”.
In the same way US-led Western policies – directly or indirectly – aided both the Al-Qaeda and the Daesh, there is every reason to believe that in a few years Europe will be haunted by a new kind of far-right terror reminiscent of the infamous Gladio Operation, when Washington funded European far-right groups as a secret anti-Soviet army during the Cold War.
One can only wonder why European leaders would be so ready to accept these risks. This is the true reason countries such as Germany, Greece, Hungary, and even Israel have at times been reluctant to further arm Kiev or to allow weapons transit. It appears that from an American perspective Europe itself is but another US proxy.
Uriel Araujo is a researcher with a focus on international and ethnic conflicts.
Google, Twitter, Meta, TikTok and more just signed the EU’s “anti-disinformation” code
By Dan Frieth | Reclaim The Net | June 16, 2022
Big Tech companies have signed a new version of the European Union’s “anti-disinformation” code. Some of the companies that signed include Google, Twitter, Meta, TikTok, and Twitch – but also smaller players such as Vimeo and Clubhouse.
There are 34 signatories in total:
- Adobe
- Avaaz
- Clubhouse
- Crisp Thinking
- Demagog
- DOT Europe
- European Association of Communication Agencies (EACA)
- Faktograf
- Globsec
- Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB Europe
- Kinzen
- Kreativitet & Kommunikation
- Logically
- Maldita.es
- MediaMath
- Meta
- Microsoft
- Neeva
- Newsback
- NewsGuard
- PagellaPoltica
- Reporters without Borders (RSF)
- Seznam
- The Bright App
- The GARM Initiative
- TikTok
- Twitch
- Vimeo
- VOST Europe
- WhoTargetsMe
- World Federation of Advertisers (WFA)
Apple declined to sign.
The “code of practice on disinformation,” will require online platforms to show how they are tackling “harmful content.”
It will also require platforms to fight “harmful misinformation” by forming partnerships with fact-checkers and developing tools. They will be forced to include “indicators of trustworthiness” on information verified independently on hot-button issues like COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Perhaps the most notable requirement is providing their efforts to tackle harmful content and disinformation on a country-by-country basis. The move was opposed by online platforms, but national regulators demanded that they need more specific data to better address the spread of disinformation.
The EU’s vice president for values and transparency Věra Jourová, who is in charge of the code, said “to respond to disinformation effectively, there is a need for the country- and language-specific data. We know disinformation is different in every country, and the big platforms will now have to provide meaningful data that would allow to understand better the situation on the country level.”
“Russia’s actions have informed to shape the anti-disinformation code,” she said. “Once the code is operational, we will be better prepared to address disinformation, also coming from Russia.”
The new code also requires online platforms to provide other data, including the AI systems deployed to tackle “disinformation,” number of bots removed, and the number of content moderators in each country.
The code applies immediately but allows for a six-month implementation period for platforms to adhere to the strict rules.
Nord Stream Can Stall Completely in the Event of New Turbine Problems: Russian UN Envoy
Samizdat | 16.06.2022
The pipeline, which supplies a significant proportion of the natural gas imported by Germany, reduced its output to just 60% after its operator failed to receive one of the turbines that pump the gas from maintenance in Canada due to anti-Russia sanctions. The warnings of a further reduction in the capacity prompted a 25% spike in EU gas prices.
Further problems with the repair and maintenance of turbines that pump the gas flowing through the Nord Stream pipeline could bring a halt to its operation, Russia’s Permanent UN Ambassador Vladimir Chizhov has warned in his speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).
Such scenario would be a disaster for Germany, which significantly depends on gas supplies from this pipeline, Chizhov added.
“We should ask [the turbine’s manufacturer] Siemens, why the turbines must undergo maintenance in Canada. […] I don’t want to give any advice, but I think they could have learnt by now how to repair [turbines] themselves”, Chizhov said.
The UN envoy further called EU plans for a seventh sanctions package against Russia a “strategic mistake”. He added that Russia will start dealing with its consequences once the sanctions package is adopted.
The anti-Russia sanctions are the reason why German giant Siemens can’t return Russia’s Nord Stream turbines, which had been sent to Canada for maintenance. Siemens said that it was looking into ways to solve the problem.
While the German company is looking for a solution, the Russian company Gazprom announced on 14 June that Nord Stream’s output capacity had fallen to 60% due to an inability to retrieve the turbine which had undergone maintenance. Its output dropped to 100 million cubic metres versus 167 million per day at peak. The company warned that it would be further reduced on 16 June to 67 million cubic metres per day for the same reason.
On the news of a further reduction in Nord Stream output capacities, the price of gas in Europe jumped 25% in one day (15 June) exceeding $1,300 per thousand cubic metres. On the trading day’s opening the price was up 2% compared to around $1,069 per thousand cubic metres as of the close of the previous day’s trading.
Israel, Egypt and EU sign gas export deal
Samizdat | June 15, 2022
Egypt, Israel, and the European Union have signed a deal to boost shipments of liquified natural gas (LNG) to EU member states, Sky News Arabia reported on Wednesday. Brussels hopes the agreement will help it to reduce energy dependence on Russia.
“The deal will see Israel sending more gas via Egypt, which has facilities to liquify it for export by sea,” European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said at a joint news conference alongside the Egyptian and Israeli energy ministers.
In 2021, the EU imported some 40% of its gas from Russia. The heavy reliance on energy purchases from the country makes it difficult for the bloc to expand its Ukraine-related sanctions.
The gas destined for European consumers is expected to go from Israel via a pipeline directly to Egypt’s LNG terminal on the Mediterranean coast before being loaded onto tankers and shipped north to the European market.
Some Israeli gas is already being sent by pipeline to liquefaction plants in Egypt, where it is liquefied and re-exported. Israel reportedly operates two gas fields off its Mediterranean coast holding an estimated 690 billion cubic meters of natural gas combined, while a third offshore rig is in the works.
Egypt is also a gas producer, but its exports have been limited by rising domestic demand. At the same time, the country’s large-scale natural gas facilities on the Mediterranean have remained mostly inactive since the country’s 2011 uprising that led to the overthrow of then-President Hosni Mubarak.
The Egyptian government has modernized the facilities in recent years and has ambitions to become a regional energy hub.
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