Italy suspends defense deal with ‘Israel’ over war on Iran, Lebanon
Al Mayadeen | April 14, 2026
Italy has decided to suspend the automatic renewal of its defence cooperation agreement with “Israel”, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Tuesday, citing the ongoing wars in the Middle East.
Meloni’s right-wing government, which has been among “Israel’s” closest allies in Europe, has in recent weeks grown increasingly critical of Israeli military actions during the wars, particularly strikes affecting Lebanon. Italian troops deployed there under a United Nations mandate have also been impacted.
Speaking in Verona, northern Italy, Meloni said the government had opted to suspend the agreement’s renewal “in light of the current situation,” according to Italian news agencies. A Defense Ministry source added that the move would end military training cooperation between Italy and “Israel”.
The decision was taken on Monday during a meeting involving Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, and Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, the source said.
The agreement at hand
The defense cooperation framework between Italy and “Israel” is based on a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed on June 16, 2003, establishing formal collaboration in the military and defense sectors.
The agreement entered into force after ratification by the Italian parliament on April 13 2016, providing a legal basis for structured bilateral defence cooperation between the two.
The June 16, 2003, defense cooperation agreement between Italy and “Israel” outlines collaboration across military training, joint exercises, and defense industry partnerships, including research and development projects.
It allows exchanges of military personnel, sharing of technical expertise, and coordinated programs between the two sides’ armed forces and the Italian Defense Ministry and the Israeli War Ministry. The framework also supports procurement cooperation, enabling each side to acquire military systems and services from the other.
Examples of its implementation include Italy’s purchase of Israeli unmanned aerial vehicles such as the IAI Heron and IAI Eitan, while “Israel” acquired Italian training aircraft like the Alenia Aermacchi M-346 Master.
The agreement further enabled joint pilot training programs, reciprocal use of military facilities, and industrial offsets involving Italian defense firms participating in Israeli-linked projects under agreed confidentiality and regulatory provisions.
The agreement includes a clause for automatic renewal every five years unless one party formally notifies termination before the end of a cycle. One such renewal was scheduled for June 8, 2025, under this mechanism.
Additional provisions have been reported to include confidentiality requirements, limiting public disclosure of joint military activities conducted under the framework of the agreement.
Iran demands reparations from Arab states
RT | April 14, 2026
Iran has demanded that five Arab states hosting US bases pay reparations for American and Israeli airstrikes on its territory.
In a letter to the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Monday, Iranian envoy Amir Saeid Iravani argued that Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Jordan had allowed the US to use their territory to attack Iran and, in some cases, were directly involved in “unlawful armed attacks targeting civilian objects.”
Iravani added that the Arab states “should make full reparation to the Islamic Republic of Iran, including compensation for all material and moral damage sustained as a result of their internationally wrongful acts.”
The Gulf states had previously demanded that Iran be held liable for war damage, a claim Iravani rejected as “legally untenable and fundamentally divorced from the factual and legal realities.”
The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, stating that the goal was to dismantle Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The attacks killed dozens of senior officials, including Iran’s longtime supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, as well as more than 1,300 civilians. In addition to military sites, the US and Israel targeted energy infrastructure, bridges, universities, and schools.
Iran responded by striking US bases in the region and civilian infrastructure in Gulf states, including oil and gas facilities, airports, and seaports. Tehran said the strikes were an exercise of its right to self-defense.
Tankers transit Strait of Hormuz amid US attempt to impose blockade, data shows
Press TV – April 14, 2026
Shipping data indicates that three Iran-linked tankers entered the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the first day of a US attempt to impose blockade targeting vessels that call at Iranian ports.
The blockade was announced by US President Donald Trump on Sunday after peace talks between Washington and Tehran in Islamabad ended without an agreement.
According to LSEG data, the Panama-flagged medium range tanker Peace Gulf is sailing to Hamriyah port in the United Arab Emirates. Kpler data shows the ship is typically involved in transporting Iranian naphtha—a petrochemical feedstock—to non-Iranian ports in West Asia for onward shipment to Asia.
Earlier, two US-sanctioned vessels also passed through the critical waterway.
The Handy size tanker Murlikishan is heading toward Iraq to load fuel oil on April 16, according to Kpler. Formerly named MKA, the vessel has previously carried both Russian and Iranian crude.
Another sanctioned tanker, Rich Starry, is expected to be the first to leave the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz since the blockade purportedly took effect, based on LSEG and Kpler data.
The ship and its owner, Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping Co. Ltd., have been sanctioned by the United States for dealings with Iran.
LSEG data shows Rich Starry, a medium range tanker, is carrying roughly 250,000 barrels of methanol loaded at its most recent port of call, Hamriyah in the UAE. The vessel is Chinese-owned and crewed by Chinese nationals.
China’s foreign ministry on Tuesday criticized the US attempt to impose blockade on Iranian ports as “dangerous and irresponsible,” saying the move would increase regional tensions. It did not specify whether any Chinese vessels were transiting the strait.
France To Vote On Bill That Would Criminalize Criticism Of Israel
France Is About To Outlaw Criticism Of Israel

Protesters hold a banner reading “Supporting Palestine is not a crime” and “Stop genocide in Gaza” at a rally against the Yadan bill, in Paris on 12 April 2026.
The Dissident | April 13, 2026
A bill that the French National Assembly will vote on, on April 16th and 17th, effectively outlaws criticism of Israel, making it a criminal offence to question Israel’s “right” to exist as a Jewish supremacist apartheid state on occupied Palestinian land, compare Israel’s conduct to the Nazis, or support armed resistance against Israeli occupation and aggression.
The bill writes, “Today, anti-Jew hatred in our country feeds on obsessive hatred towards Israel, regularly delegitimized in its existence and criminalized. This phenomenon is exacerbated by extreme spirits who, under the pretext of expressing their hatred towards a State, are the instigators of a reinvented anti-Semitism, which could be described as ‘geopolitics’.”
The bill seeks to criminalize critics of Israel and paint them as terrorists, writing that the “call for the destruction of Israel and its comparison to a Nazi regime – are rooted in consciences with impunity, taking up the rhetoric of movements recognized as terrorist such as Hamas or Hezbollah.”
The bill seeks to criminalize:
- “Public remarks presenting acts of terrorism as legitimate resistance” (ie support for armed resistance against the Israeli genocide in Gaza or occupation of Lebanon).
- “Causing the destruction or denial of a State or publicly advocating its destruction or denial” (i.e., questioning Israel as a Jewish apartheid state, including calls for a single democratic state in historic Palestine with equal rights).
- “to clarify and extend the crime of challenging the Shoah, by enshrining several essential contributions of case law” adding “the comparison of the State of Israel to the Nazi regime would therefore be sanctioned as an outrageous trivialization of the Shoah” (i.e. factually pointing out that the state of Israel is behaving like the Nazis, including by committing Genocide in Gaza, as the UN independent international commission found in September of last year, and by calling for an expansionist greater Israel and ethnic cleansing to establish Jewish settlements ,similar to the Nazi concept of Lebensraum, an idea that has been openly endorsed by Benjamin Netanyahu and his main political opponent Yair Lapid).
Analyst Arnaud Bertrand documented that the bill attempts to make the criminalization of speech as broad as possible.
He noted that “Article 1 introduces the concept of ‘implicit’ provocation to terrorism and punishes it with five years imprisonment and a fine of €75,000,” adding, “What does ‘implicit provocation to terrorism’ mean? Nobody knows. And that’s the point. It means whatever a prosecutor wants it to mean: a perfectly good case could be made that, for instance, quoting international law on the right of occupied peoples to resist with respect to Hamas is, in fact, ‘implicit provocation to terrorism.’”
He added that “The same article also expands the terrorism apology offense to include ‘minimizing or trivializing acts of terrorism in an outrageous manner’” adding that “a judge could decide that providing context, explaining root causes, or insufficiently condemning an act amounts to ‘trivializing’ terrorism”, “for instance, a history teacher explaining the origins of Hamas or Hezbollah is providing context – but a prosecutor could argue that contextualization is trivialization. The same reasoning could apply to a journalist, a researcher, or anyone on social media who says ‘yes, it was terrible, but here’s why it happened.’ The ‘but’ becomes a crime, as it is trivialization.”
He also noted that, “ if you advocate for a one-state solution where Israelis and Palestinians live as equals, you are de-facto calling for the ‘destruction’ of the state of Israel. Well, that would now be punishable by 5 years in prison”.
The bill is called “the Yadan Law” because its creation was headed by National Assembly deputy Caroline Yadan, who represents the “French legislative constituency for citizens abroad” where “Israel has the largest number of voters in the constituency, with over 50,000 registered French voters”.
JNS noted that, “Yadan was elected to parliament as a representative of Renaissance but downgraded her ties to the party, switching to an independent affiliated lawmaker in September following the Macron administration’s decision to recognize a Palestinian state.”
In other words, the bill was brought by a Zionist French politician whose main constituency are Israelis.
Arnaud Bertrand noted, “The U.S. has congressmen paid by AIPAC: France has cut out the middleman entirely, we have MPs whose constituency is literally in Israel.”
Caroline Yadan is a genocide denier who has written, “The term genocide corresponds neither to the rights nor to the facts, nor to the intentions of the war in Gaza.”
Referring to the bill, the former French anti-terrorism judge Marc Trevidic said, “I’d never seen anything like it, the notion of implicit incitement to terrorism. Can you imagine what that means? A censor of other people’s thoughts, trying to figure out what a person meant”.
There is no doubt that this bill is designed to silence criticism of Israel, and that the lawmaker behind it is pushing it forward on behalf of her Israeli constituents.
There are No Ceasefires with Israel, Only Opportunities for Later Attacks
By Robert Inlakesh | Palestine Chronicle | April 12, 2026
“The war is not over,” stated Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, less than twenty-four hours after a two-week cessation of hostilities with Iran was declared by the US. A clear sign of what is to come, from an emboldened Israeli leadership that has failed to achieve their goals of “total victory” in a “seven-front war” that has been ongoing since October of 2023.
With all the talk about ceasefire agreements to end regional hostilities in the Arab and English media, the Israeli Hebrew media is looking at things quite differently. Instead of an end to a war that the majority of the international community has worked to close, Tel Aviv eyes the next escalation.
In Lebanon, if a ceasefire is reached, the Israeli government will seek to do so in a way that inflicts a major political blow against Hezbollah, after having failed to achieve actual military accomplishments. Almost immediately following US President Donald Trump’s Truth Social post declaring a two-week ceasefire, Israel jumped to use the opportunity it had gained through the ceasefire in order to focus all of its airpower on Lebanon.
The results were truly devastating; around 300 Lebanese civilians were murdered in a series of strikes that lasted only ten minutes, which followed mass strikes across the country, including the targeting of an ambulance. After this, a series of other attacks took place, including a targeted strike which killed 19 Lebanese in Nabatieh, including at least 12 Security Force members.
Meanwhile, the US picked Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun, who have publicly begged their way to direct negotiations with Israel, while their civilians suffer through successive massacres. The way this is all being orchestrated was laid out well by a presenter on Israel’s Channel 13 News, who openly said that the Israelis are trying to orchestrate civil war inside Lebanon, using the government to order a crackdown on Hezbollah that will trigger it.
There are also Lebanese Forces militiamen who are suspected of helping drag the nation into such a bloody conflict.
Just as on November 27, 2024, when the Lebanon ceasefire was declared, the Israelis don’t see it as an agreement designed to stop aggression mutually. Over the course of 15 months, the Israelis committed 15,400 violations of the Lebanon ceasefire, setting a world record for the most violated ceasefire in recorded human history. While the US-backed Lebanese government pretended as if a new war had started in March, the Israelis had been waging war on the Lebanese south for 15 months.
In the Gaza Strip, the so-called ceasefire was also an opportunity for the Israelis; they got a break from the fighting while continuing to arm and build up their ISIS-linked militia allies. They violated the ceasefire around 3,000 times, killing over 700 Palestinians, all as a Civi-Military Coordination Center (CMCC), composed of over 20 countries, watched on in silence.
All the way back to 1948, the Israelis used ceasefires and temporary truces in the same exact way. For example, they launched ‘Operation Danny’, in July of 1948, during a temporary pause to secure territory in Lydd and Ramla; then ‘Operation Yoav’ in October 1948, breaking the second truce to launch an attack in the Naqab region; followed by ‘Operation Hiram’, also in October 1948 that was initiated shortly after the second truce ended, flooding their forces into the Galilee.
All of the Gaza ceasefire agreements were violated continuously by the Israelis, each used to Tel Aviv’s advantage. More recently, we can turn to Syria, where the Israelis tore up the 1974 disengagement agreement, using the fall of Bashar al-Assad to occupy even more southern Syrian territory, including seven key water assets. They had a well-oiled plan prepared, sitting there waiting for the day that regime change occurred in Damascus.
There is only one example of where the Israelis were forced to abide by a ceasefire, but were still violating Lebanese sovereignty thousands upon thousands of times throughout, and that was following the 2006 Lebanon war, when a costly equation was imposed by force. Yet, the post-October 7 predicament has destroyed all previous understandings and ushered in an expansionist era for the Israeli government. Both Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Yair Lapid have both publicly stated their interest in expanding Israel’s undeclared borders and achieving the “Greater Israel Project”.
Tel Aviv’s defence minister, Israel Katz, has made it clear Israel’s intention to expand its borders up to the Litani River in Lebanon, while Finance Minister Smotrich has openly asserted that the objective of settling the area is a goal.
Israel is currently fighting what it sees as an existential battle to achieve the rebirth of “Eretz Israel”, a regional war that will not end until the project is secured. This means that even if a ceasefire is reached with Iran and Lebanon, it is not actually a ceasefire; it is simply another opportunity to implement new schemes and head back to the drawing board, only to escalate once again in the future.
Both history and the statements coming from the Israeli leadership clearly demonstrate that there is no such thing as a sustainable ceasefire with Israel.
– Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary filmmaker. He focuses on the Middle East, specializing in Palestine.
China to Ignore Trump’s Blockade: The Strait Remains Open to Us
By Kyle Anzalone | The Libertarian Institute | April 13, 2026
China said it will not comply with the Strait of Hormuz blockade that President Donald Trump imposed on Monday. Beijing explained that it is negotiating with Tehran to transit the waterway and expects other countries not to meddle in its affairs.
Beijing is “monitoring the situation in the Middle East. Our ships are moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz,” Chinese Defense Minister, Adm. Dong Jun, said after Trump announced the blockade. “We have trade and energy agreements with Iran. We will respect and honor them and expect others to not meddle in our affairs. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and it is open for us.”
In response to a US and Israeli surprise attack on February 28, Tehran took control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has allowed only vessels from “friendly nations” to enter or exit the Persian Gulf and has imposed a toll. China is among the nations that have worked out deals with Iran to allow its ships to transit the Strait.
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is now under Tehran’s control, and plans to change the toll to transit the waterway after the conflict ends.
Trump has threatened that the US will stop any ship that exits the Gulf after paying a toll to Tehran, setting up a potential confrontation with Beijing if the Navy attempts to seize a Chinese-flagged tanker.
Trump is scheduled to visit China next month to meet with President Xi. Earlier this week, the President threatened to place a 50% tariff on China if Beijing provides military support to Iran.
Trump’s desperate bombasts amount to war crimes
By William J. Watkins Jr. | The Libertarian Institute | April 13, 2026
President Donald Trump owes the Pakistanis for securing a fourteen-day ceasefire with Iran. He now has a chance to extricate the United States from the biggest blunder of his second term. Tensions, however, remain high. “It is emphasized that this does not signify the termination of the war,” the Iranian government said in a formal statement. “Our hands remain upon the trigger, and should the slightest error be committed by the enemy, it shall be met with full force.”
One must worry that Trump does not appreciate the ceasefire off-ramp as good luck or an unmerited gift; instead, he likely will credit his threats to destroy “a whole civilization…never to be brought back again.” If the ceasefire breaks down, Trump could fulfill his commitment to “rain Hell” on Iran.
While typing away on Truth Social, Trump is oblivious that he is giving an anticipatory confession to war crimes. In addition to the posts quoted above, the president has threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants, oil wells, and desalinization facilities if certain demands are rejected. Civilizational devastation, Trump raved, “will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year ‘Reign of Terror.’”
Trump’s promises violate fundamental tenets of the laws and customs of armed conflict (also known as international humanitarian law, “IHL”) which yields individual criminal responsibility under international law. This area of IHL is clear and not subject to different spins.
As an initial matter, Trump’s war plans violate protocols to the Geneva Convention codifying the principle of distinction. According to Article 48 of the relevant protocol, “the Parties to the conflict shall at all times distinguish between the civilian population and combatants and between civilian objects and military objectives and accordingly shall direct their operations only against military objectives.” [Emphasis added] Article 51 further prohibits “[a]cts or threats of violence the primary purpose of which is to spread terror among the civilian population.”
Trump’s possible targets enumerated on Truth Social are integral to provision of basic services to civilians. The president is not threatening military bases, missile silos, or drone manufacturing facilities. Instead, he proposes to bring suffering on Iran’s civilian population simply because he can. IHL prohibits such methods of war as uncivilized.
Trump and his war hawk apologists will likely counter that destruction of certain infrastructure could produce a military benefit and thus is allowed. This is not true. Article 51 sets forth the principle of proportionality which prohibits military attacks expected to cause harm to civilians that is excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated. Just because soldiers use electricity and drink water does not mean that the United States is justified in destroying all of Iran’s power plants and desalinization facilities.
Further damning to the president’s case is his stated reason for attacking civilian targets and infrastructure: “retribution” for the conduct of a regime he alleges no longer holds power. IHL strictly prohibits reprisals against the civilian population. A reprisal is an action typically illegal that is taken to force the enemy to stop its own violations of IHL. For example, if Iran executed American prisoners of war (“POWs”), the United States could execute Iranian POWs to persuade Iran to comply with the Geneva Convention. In the present conflict, Trump has not identified Iranian IHL violations and even if he had done so, the United States could not institute reprisals against civilian targets or persons.
At best, Trump’s statements on Truth Social are desperate bombast from a leader who regrets taking advice from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC). At worst, they are an outline for barbarism unfit for the leader of a federal republic.
If the ceasefire does not result in a permanent settlement and Trump follows through on his threats to civilians and civilian infrastructure, IHL is squarely against him. He should not be surprised if the International Criminal Court (“ICC”), which is charged with investigating war crimes and similar matters, issues a warrant for his arrest. Such a warrant would prevent Trump from traveling outside of the United States because of the risk of arrest. No more golf trips to Ireland for the Donald.
While Trump has just complaints about the lawfare waged against him by the likes of Alvin Bragg, Letitia James, and Fani Willis, an ICC matter would be different. Trump’s own words convict him and are counter to the established laws and customs of armed conflict.
Most Israelis oppose Iran ceasefire, reject talks: Poll
The Cradle | April 13, 2026
A majority of Israelis are against the ceasefire with Iran and anticipate that it will collapse within the coming year, according to a poll carried out by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.
The survey was carried out between 9 and 10 April.
According to the results, 61 percent of Israelis oppose the cessation of hostilities with the Islamic Republic.
Seventy-three percent said Tel Aviv will have to resume the war, while 76 percent said that talks will not achieve Israeli objectives.
Additionally, 69 percent say Israel must continue the indiscriminate strikes on Lebanon and military operations against Hezbollah. Only 23 percent believe Lebanon should be included in the ceasefire.
The new poll also reveals that 62 percent are not convinced that the war against Lebanon will bring security and stability to Israelis.
Just 20 percent of supporters of the ruling coalition said they backed the truce, while only 31 percent of opposition voters expressed the same view.
The poll shows Israelis are unhappier with the results of this war than they were following last year’s 12-day June war against Iran.
Thirty-seven percent were “very satisfied” with the results of the new US-Israeli war on Iran, as opposed to 62 percent who said the same about last year’s war.
Forty-four percent of coalition voters are happy with the “diplomatic achievements” made, compared to 24 percent who are extremely unsatisfied.
Only seven percent of opposition voters said they were very satisfied with the achievements, compared with 69 percent who said they were unsatisfied.
The poll was released following the Islamabad talks between Tehran and Washington, which ended on 12 April with no agreement.
Since the US-Israeli war on Iran was launched in late February, Washington’s bases across the region have been ravaged.
A new Pew Research Center survey, released on 7 April, shows rising negative sentiment among US citizens toward Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the start of the war.
Six in 10 respondents report an unfavorable view of Israel, up from 53 percent last year, while the number of those holding a “very unfavorable” view has also surged, nearly tripling since 2022.
Another recent poll carried out by Reuters and Ipsos showed that more than two-thirds of US citizens are calling for a quick end to Washington’s war against Iran, even if it means ditching its stated goals.
Just two weeks after the war began, a Drop Site News and Zeteo poll revealed that a majority of US citizens believe US President Donald Trump launched the war on Iran to “cover up” the scandalous Jeffrey Epstein files.
The new poll on Israelis’ sentiment toward ending the Iran war echoes some of those conducted during the genocide in Gaza.
In May 2025, a poll conducted by Penn State University found that 82 percent of Israelis supported the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.
Iran to charge ships from ‘hostile’ nations to cross Hormuz – security chief
RT | April 13, 2026
Iran will levy tolls on ships from ‘hostile’ countries crossing the Strait of Hormuz as compensation for damage caused by sanctions and US-Israeli strikes, Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, has said.
Speaking to RT on Sunday following US-Iran talks in Islamabad that ended in an impasse, Azizi said Washington should accept Tehran’s terms because it needs a deal “more than we do,” and that many Iranians are unhappy that Tehran even entered into negotiations.
“When they need it, they should accept both the conditions and the prerequisites. If they don’t, we’ll do our work and go our own way. Nothing will change,” he added.
US President Donald Trump has refused to rule out resuming “limited” strikes against Iran after ordering a naval blockade and threatening to deny safe passage to any ships that have complied with Tehran’s fees and rules for transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Azizi, a draft bill being drawn up in the Iranian parliament would stipulate that “those who have caused us damage, those who are in fact liable to pay compensation, may only cross the Strait of Hormuz if they pay their damages and compensation.”
Referring to countries that have frozen Iranian assets “on the orders of America,” he said: “You made a great mistake by blocking them. Now you also want to cross this waterway? That era is over.”
Once approved, the law will require the government to establish a new “management and control system” for the strait and the Persian Gulf, based on environmental safety, security, and services, Azizi said. Any vessel wishing to enter would then have to pay tolls “based on the national interests of Iran,” with specific fees and procedures to be set later by the cabinet rather than by parliament.
Tehran remains deeply skeptical of Washington’s intentions, even after ceasefire-related preconditions were discussed, Azizi said. “We simply do not trust them,” he stated, questioning how a country that “elevates arrogance and colonialism to a guiding principle” could be expected to honor its agreements.
US’s ‘Very Foolish’ Double Blockade of Hormuz Strait Makes Absolutely No Sense: Here’s Why
Sputnik – 13.04.2026
Every step Washington has taken in the conflict with Iran to date has worsened its own strategic position, and the blockade of Iranian oil exports is no exception, says Center for Contemporary Iranian Studies director Rajab Safarov.
“This is a very foolish move on the part of the United States. With each passing day and every step,” Washington is “worsening” its own position, and that of many countries around the world for whom Hormuz is the lifeline to their economic existence, Safarov told Sputnik.
Meanwhile, “the Iranian position grows stronger” over time relative to others, something “the Iranians understand perfectly well,” Safarov said. Therefore, Tehran has no incentive to agree to or be bullied into a peace deal on American terms.
Safarov doesn’t rule out that President Trump is being provided poor information on conditions on the ground by underlings like Secretary Hegseth, and making statements and decisions that have “no connection to reality.”
The observer pointed out, for example, that Trump claimed Iran’s Navy has been destroyed. But it’s this same Navy that’s now “ready to sink any ship that might move toward the Indian Ocean without Iran’s permission.”
“He says that Iran’s missile tech and launchers are exhausted or destroyed. But we see Iran launching more and more of its missiles – more modern, more powerful ones, etc,” Safarov said.
The US will ultimately be forced to fold, the observer argues, because while blocking Iranian oil exports will hurt its economy, Tehran is in a position to survive. The effects on the Gulf exporters and major energy-dependent economies in Asia and the developing world will be far more punishing. Oil prices could hit $150 by the end of the week.
With 20% of the world’s oil trapped in the Persian Gulf, “that means a fifth of the global economy will essentially grind to a halt.” Therefore, “America risks turning almost the entire world against itself,” Safarov summed up.
Seyed M. Marandi: Negotiations Collapsed – Return to War
Glenn Diesen | April 12, 2026
Seyed Mohammad Marandi is in Islamabad, where the negotiations between Iran and the US collapsed. Marandi explains why the negotiations failed and that there will likely be a return to war. In the US media, there are already threats to kill the Iranian leadership and delegation. Marandi is a professor at Tehran University and a former advisor to Iran’s Nuclear Negotiation Team. (
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Tomorrow’s naval blockade showdown
How will China react?
Ashes of Pompeii | April 12, 2026
Apparently tomorrow morning, April 13, at 10 a.m. ET the blockade of Iran’s ports by the US will begin. Make no mistake, this is primarily pointed at Iran’s trade with China. The Trump team seem to still think they can kill two birds with one stone – bring down the Islamic Republic and also economically weaken China. In this article I will focus on China, in particular, one aspect of the US/China relationship that gets little attention but which can be a “nuclear bomb” for China. Much discussion in the US about the boom in data center construction, but far less discussion of the total reliance on Chiina for these builds.
It has been estimated by multiple sources that literally all of the US growth in the past year has been due to the AI boom, specifically, due to AI data center builds. Without this ,US growth would be flat, potentially even negative. Even without the Iran war and rising energy costs, data center construction in the U.S. is currently facing significant headwinds, resulting in delays and escalating costs. The primary driver is the strained supply chain, impacting the availability of critical components like switchgear, generators, and specialized cooling equipment. Lead times for these items have stretched considerably, pushing project timelines back by months, if not quarters.

There are other factors for the slow down, especially chip and labor shortages, regulatory hurdles, and the increasing costs of infrastructure. This isn’t the place to delve into all of the factors, but the point is this vital sector for the US economy is in an extremely fragile state. One small push and it can come tumbling down.
And it turns out that whether this sector continues to keep the US out of recession or not is entirely in China’s hands. Forget chips as the vital factor, especially as other US allies control most of the chip production. Just as real a bottleneck is in Chinese electrical components. There is currently a backlog of several years for many of these. Sure, potentially in the long run, there can be many sources for these components. But not tomorrow. Or the day after.
With just the flick of a switch, China stop exporting these components and the AI boom dies almost instantly. And with it, any hopes for real growth in the US economy over the coming months or years.
I obviously don’t know how China will react, or what measures it will enact, if the US navy does go through with its blockade tomorrow. What I outline here is just one of many potential levers the Chinese can pull (rare earths, pharma base ingredients, T-Bills, …)
But don’t expect the US blockade to impact China too severely any time soon.
