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The Jeddah Talks Backfired On Zelensky

BY ANDREW KORYBKO | AUGUST 6, 2023

The latest Western-centric Ukrainian peace talks in Jeddah were intended to sway the Global South towards Kiev’s side in the NATO-Russian proxy war by pressuring these countries to support Zelensky’s so-called “peace formula”. That goal was always doomed to fail from the get-go, however, since this event also provided the representatives of neutral countries like China and India with the opportunity to share their own envisaged endgame to the conflict as well as their shared Russian partner’s.

This resultant dialogue led to the meeting being a double-edged sword for Zelensky. On the one hand, he had yet another high-profile opportunity to repeat his talking points about why Russia needs to be punished for its special operation, but this time with all of that country’s BRICS partners in attendance. On the other hand, however, China and India ensured that his demands weren’t the only scenario on the table. Just like Zelensky, they too were able to share these views with a diverse international audience.

As was expected, no consensus was reached on the way forward, but Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Rybkov revealed on Sunday that Russia’s BRICS partners plan to brief it about the event. This is much more significant than the simple courtesy that it might appear to be at first glance since Moscow will be able to obtain a better understanding of all the attendees’ positions, which will in turn enable it to fine-tune its diplomacy towards those countries that might be interested in a compromise solution.

About that, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov debunked the speculation swirling around the Mainstream Media and even among some in the Alt-Media Community alleging that Russia wants to control more than the four former Ukrainian territories that united with it last September. He reaffirmed on the same day as Ryabkov’s earlier statement that “We just want to control all the land we have now written into our Constitution as ours”, which aligns with what President Putin strongly suggested in June.

This position was already known to Russia’s BRICS partners with whom it’s candidly discussed the special operation, particularly the Chinese and Indian representatives who attended the Jeddah talks. Special Representative on Eurasian Affairs Li Hui and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval each visited Moscow several months back, during which time they met with President Putin. Considering this context, it’s likely that they brought up his stance during the Jeddah talks when explaining their countries’.

Via Special Representative Li and National Security Advisor Doval, President Putin was therefore able to convey his country’s pragmatic position towards this conflict’s endgame to the largest international audience so far, thus breaking through the West’s information blockade. Upon learning that he doesn’t have any maximalist goals unlike Zelensky, those other representatives whose countries truly want peace as soon as possible might be in favor of tacitly recognizing Russia’s gains in exchange for a ceasefire.

August 6, 2023 Posted by | Aletho News | , , | Leave a comment

Washington ‘Terrified’ Trump May Defeat Biden in 2024 Election

By Oleg Burunov – Sputnik – 04.08.2023

The indictment of Donald Trump indicates that the Biden administration is trying to prevent the 45th US president from effectively campaigning in the 2024 election race, analysts have told Sputnik.

Former US President Donald Trump pleaded not guilty on Thursday to four federal charges related to his alleged efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. The first hearing for the trial is expected on August 28.

The ex-POTUS was indicted earlier this week as part of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into Trump’s purported push to reverse the results of the election, which was followed by the January 6, 2021 US Capitol breach.

“The case brought against Trump on Thursday is another example of judicial intervention in the electoral process,” Dr. Harvey Schantz, professor of political science at the State University of New York at Plattsburgh, said.

He added that the 45th US president’s indictment “goes to the core of the American political system because it involves the transfer of power” from a Republican Party president to a Democratic Party president. According to Schantz, such a change is “more momentous than ever because the two parties have very alternative views of public policy and markedly different supporters.”

The political scientist argued that the Trump indictment “divides people along party affiliations, exacerbating differences between Democrats and Republicans and between Trump and [US President Joe] Biden voters.”

Schantz pointed out that “the multiple cases” against the former American president “have strengthened his hold on the Republican presidential nomination, and contrary to conventional wisdom, have not as yet hurt Trump in the 2024 general election contest, in which polls have Trump and Biden running neck and neck.”

Dr. Nicholas Waddy, political analyst and Associate Professor of History at SUNY Alfred State College, for his part, told Sputnik that Thursday’s arraignment of Trump “[…] represents a new low for the Biden Administration, progressives, and the Deep State,” who he said “are, in effect, trying to criminalize dissent, criticism, differences of opinion, and political opposition.”

Waddy insisted that ex-US president “isn’t being charged because of his actions, or his words, but because of who he is and what he represents.”

“The Deep State, including [Attorney General] Merrick Garland and [Special Counsel] Jack Smith, hates Trump with every fiber of its being. They are terrified that he might be able to defeat [President] Joe Biden in the 2024 election and win a second term as president, and thus they, and numerous other state and federal prosecutors, have decided on a strategy of ‘lawfare’ to kneecap him as a candidate,” the political analyst claimed.

According to him, these officials “would love to imprison Trump for the rest of his life, but their primary aim is to tie him up in legal knots throughout 2024 so that he cannot campaign effectively, and so that the entire election revolves around a debate about Donald Trump’s criminality, rather than Joe Biden’s performance in office.”

“The goal here – to interfere with the electoral process itself – is so transparent that no fair-minded person could deny it,” Waddy added. He claimed that “It isn’t Trump that poses an ‘existential’ threat to Democrats, It’s democracy itself, and that’s what they are trying to snuff out.”

August 4, 2023 Posted by | Aletho News | Leave a comment

France Declared That It Won’t Let The Nigerien Junta Kick It Out Of The Country

BY ANDREW KORYBKO | AUGUST 3, 2023

Speculation is swirling about whether Niger’s patriotic military junta will follow its reported ban on uranium and gold exports to France with a demand for that country’s troops to leave the country after the example that was recently set by the de facto Burkinabe-Malian federation. That would be a risky move to make, however, since France just declared that it won’t take orders from them. Here’s what PBS reported about this on Thursday:

“Even if Niger’s military rulers demand the withdrawal of French troops — as happened in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso — it wouldn’t make a difference, said Anne-Claire Legendre, a spokesperson for the French foreign minister during a press briefing on Wednesday. ‘We don’t answer to the putschists. We recognize one constitutional order and one legitimacy only, that of President Bazoum,’ she said.”

Considering this, the junta would either discredit itself by making a major demand that France confirmed it will defy or risk being ousted from power by its former colonizer in the event that it tries to impose its will, both scenarios of which aren’t in their objective interests. French President Emmanuel Macron warned last week that “The President will not tolerate any attack against France and its interests”, hence the reason to expect it to resolutely respond in the second-mentioned scenario.

Nevertheless, not directly addressing the issue of French troops in Niger will likely prove impossible for the junta since these forces will eventually require supplies once their existing ones at their air base in the capital start running low, which will lead to them breaking the closed border regime unless it’s lifted before then. They already did so on at least one occasion so far as admitted by the junta shortly after they seized power and issued that decree, but repeated violations would prompt a dilemma.

On the one hand, letting them flout this rule would deprive Paris of the pretext that it might be trying to provoke for directly attacking the junta in the unlikely event that the planned NATO-backed Nigerian-led ECOWAS invasion of Niger is called off, but its new military rulers would be discredited. On the other hand, while firing on them would be a strong reaffirmation of Niger’s sovereignty, it would also almost certainly lead to an overwhelming French response that could escalate to a Libyan-like regime change.

Unlike in Syria where the US’ military forces are based in far-flung but still strategically positioned parts of the country, France’s military forces in Niger are located in the capital, which means that they can’t be ignored. The junta also recently accused them of plotting airstrikes on the presidential palace in order to free ousted President Mohamed Bazoum who’s being held there, thus making their continued presence a potentially imminent threat to national security.

France’s preemptive refusal to withdraw from Niger if the junta demands that it do so on the pretext that they’re illegitimate putschists contrasts with its compliance with Mali’s and Burkina Faso’s earlier such demands that were made by their own military-led interim governments. This suggests that France has decided to draw a line in the sand signaling that it’ll fight to preserve its last regional bastion, which bodes ill for the future of the Nigerien junta.

August 3, 2023 Posted by | Aletho News | , , | Leave a comment

French invasion of Niger could turn into all-out Franco-African war

By Drago Bosnic | August 3, 2023

Ever since the Nigerien military under the command of General Abdourahamane Tchiani took power on July 26, there has been an exponential increase in tensions between Niamey and its former colonial masters in Paris. This has gone to the point where France is now seriously considering invading the West African country. The exploitation of “former” French colonies has continued unabated for over half a century even after they were granted a semblance of independence and Paris has been the main beneficiary of this one-sided relationship. Combined with France’s inability to deal with various terrorist insurgencies in the region, this unadulterated neocolonial theft has been the primary reason behind a series of popular uprisings in the Sahel.

Paris is now faced with a strategic dilemma. If it lets Niger continue its path toward actual independence, France will be unable to continue exploiting the country’s natural resources. Namely, several of its former colonies have served as a source of massive wealth extraction and given the recent troubles Paris is facing, these resources might be more important than ever. On the other hand, recent geopolitical changes in the area have left France largely impuissant. After the defeat of its nearly decade-long intervention in Chad last year, Paris has been left with bases in Ivory Coast, Senegal and Gabon. Neither of these can be used effectively as a staging ground for an invasion due to the limited number of troops stationed there.

However, even if France was to somehow find enough soldiers to launch the invasion, none of the three countries border Niger. Gabon is the least logical option, as Cameroon and Nigeria stand between it and Niger, leaving only bases in Senegal and Ivory Coast as viable possibilities. And yet, this is where the issues of basic geography for Paris stop and actual geopolitical ones start. Namely, in order to effectively use its forces from both countries to reach Niger, France needs to go through Mali and Burkina Faso, both of which have already stated that any military action against Niamey will be tantamount to aggression against them. In other words, if France wants to attack Niger, it will also need to attack two more African countries.

A possible alternative for Paris could be the use of its neocolonial influence in the ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States, also known as CEDEAO in French and Portuguese). However, this leaves its members at risk of more anti-Western uprisings, as the belligerent power pole is deeply unpopular in the area. Some members of the ECOWAS, such as Nigeria, might be the best geographical option, but given the fact that Paris has little to no influence in Abuja, this is extremely unlikely. Not to mention the fact that Nigeria has more than enough problems of its own and the last thing it needs is to serve as the staging ground for a neocolonial invasion. Logically, this leaves Chad as the only option, but this too is a very long shot.

To make matters worse for France, Algeria has joined the chorus of Niger’s allies. The French archrival that spearheaded the independence of many of its “former” colonies in the 1960s is effectively an African superpower, heavily armed and highly motivated to never allow Paris or any other Western (neo)colonial power to establish a firm foothold in the region. This still leaves Chad as the only viable option for an invasion, as the country was an instrumental staging ground for virtually all French military operations in the area, including the illegal invasion of Libya. However, reaching Chad at this point is easier said than done and this still leaves most of the geopolitical issues unresolved. Also, all geographical considerations remain.

Namely, the Nigerien capital of Niamey is located in the southwestern corner of the country, close to the border with Burkina Faso. Thus, even in the unlikely case that none of its neighbors intervene, Niger is still left with a comfortable window of opportunity to resist the invasion. This could end in a disaster for France, as yet another military defeat in the area would inevitably lead to a complete collapse of the neocolonial system it left in place in the 1960s. On the other hand, if Paris doesn’t intervene, this will happen anyway, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Either way, the dilemma inevitably results in a geopolitical catch-22, as leaving things as they are could also encourage others to revolt against Western neocolonialism elsewhere in Africa and possibly beyond.

As for France’s NATO allies, they’ve been largely quiet and non-militant, including the United States (a rather uncommon feature in their usually belligerent foreign policy). Washington DC has a military base in the central part of the country, the Niger Air Base 201, run by US AFRICOM (African Command), but its operational capabilities are mostly limited to drone strikes, with the troops deployed there largely composed of a skeleton crew that provides basic security. Coupled with the recent cooling of US-French relations, this makes it highly unlikely that the Pentagon would give the go-ahead for any sort of American involvement in a possible French invasion, even though it’s in Washington DC’s interest to keep Western neocolonialism in Africa alive for as long as possible.

Drago Bosnic is an independent geopolitical and military analyst.

August 3, 2023 Posted by | Aletho News | , , | Leave a comment

It’s Likely That Algeria Will Play An Important Role If West Africa Descends Into War

BY ANDREW KORYBKO | AUGUST 1, 2023

“West Africa Is Gearing Up For A Regional War” as it bifurcates into two clearly defined blocs over whether to invade or defend Niger, which experienced a potentially game-changing patriotic military coup last week. The preceding hyperlinked analysis explains the rapidly emerging military-strategic dynamics more in detail, but they can be summarized as setting the stage for what might soon become the next proxy battleground in the New Cold War.

NATO supports a Nigerian-led ECOWAS invasion to reinstall Niger’s ousted leader while Russia backs Burkina Faso and Mali, which have de facto merged into a federation and jointly announced that any attack on that neighboring nation will be regarded as a declaration of war against both of them. Those two are trilaterally cooperating with Guinea, which is also under military rule like they are and just threw its political weight behind the Nigerien junta, but it’s unclear whether it’ll militarily defend it too.

The Interim President of regional military powerhouse Chad earlier traveled to Niamey in an attempt to broker a compromise that could avert war, but he appears to have been unsuccessful, though his country also hasn’t yet committed to supporting either side of this potentially coming conflict. This places Chad in a kingmaker position since its decision whether and when to intervene could greatly determine the outcome.

Amidst these fast-moving developments, Russian publicly financed international media flagship TASS confirmed on Tuesday that the Algerian Chief of Staff arrived in Moscow the day prior to meet with his host’s Defense Minister. They also added that the President visited St. Petersburg in June to attend the International Economic Forum there, during which time he met with President Putin to clinch an enhanced strategic partnership deal, while the Prime Minister was there last week for the Africa Summit.

It deserves mentioning that Russia is Algeria’s top military partner and has remained so for decades, with this relationship persisting in spite of Moscow neglecting most of Africa until just a few years ago. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) confirmed in this spring’s “Trends In International Arms Transfers” report that a whopping 73% of Algeria’s military imports from 2018-2022 were from Russia, which testifies to the enduring strength of their military ties.

Accordingly, Algeria has one of the largest, best-equipped, and most modern militaries anywhere in Africa, which is why it’s rightly regarded as among the continent’s most powerful countries. For that reason, its Chief of Staff’s latest visit to Russia in the current regional context isn’t any small matter since it suggests that Algiers intends to coordinate with Moscow regarding the wider war that might be about to break out upon the expiry of ECOWAS’ ultimatum this Sunday to reinstall Niger’s ousted leader.

Although Algeria and Russia both condemned the Nigerien coup late last week, each of their respective statements were shared prior to ECOWAS making its ultimatum that was subsequently supported by France and the US, both of which have troops in that country. The previously mentioned Burkinabe-Malian joint statement importantly warned that an invasion of Niger risks repeating the Libyan scenario by destabilizing the entire region and thus exacerbating terrorist threats to everyone.

This is an accurate assessment that justifies Russia and Algeria working together to avert that worst-case scenario and jointly coordinating their response to it if this conflict ends up becoming inevitable, thus explaining why the Algerian Chief of Staff decided to visit Russia right after his Prime Minister just did. The reason for his visit is clearly to discuss the planned NATO-backed Nigerian-led ECOWAS invasion of Niger, which also happens to border Algeria for those readers who aren’t aware.

It’s likely that Algeria will play an important role if West Africa descends into war by virtue of its geography and military prowess. At the very least, Algiers might refuse to allow French warplanes to transit through its airspace, thus forcing them to risk being fired at if they violate this possible order or find another route to Niger via Libya (which might also be formally closed off to them) or somewhere else. The point is that Algeria can greatly complicate France’s military logistics in any upcoming conflict.

Not only that, but this North African nation could allow Russia to transit through its airspace (provided that NATO doesn’t impede this through dangerous brinksmanship over the Mediterranean) to reliably supply the de facto Burkinabe-Malian federation with arms, food, and whatever else it might need. In a sense, this would be spiritually similar to the erstwhile Soviet Union’s intervention in support of Ethiopia during the Ogaden War when it was invaded by Somalia, though of course key differences exist.

Moving along, the other role that Algeria could play is a direct one, though it can’t be taken for granted that its leadership will feel comfortable with this since it could fear that any significant deployment towards or into Niger could be taken advantage of by its long-time Moroccan nemesis. If it decides to do so, however, then moving its forces – including air defense systems – closer to the frontier could possibly deter France and Nigeria. Should those two still attack Niger, then Algeria might intervene in its support.

The Burkinabe-Malian joint statement warning about a repeat of the Libyan scenario scares Algeria since it struggled against terrorism during what’s regarded as its “Black Decade” from 1991-2002, not to mention more recently but to a much lesser extent since the NATO War on Libya in 2011. Its objective national interests are therefore served by at the very least complicating France’s military logistics in any upcoming conflict even if it ultimately decides not to get directly involved like Burkina Faso and Mali will.

Additionally, many might not know that Algeria has consistently espoused a revolutionary ideology throughout the decades despite the radical changes in the world order since its independence. This explains why it retained ties with Russia despite the latter’s difficult decade after the USSR’s dissolution and also didn’t cut off relations with Syria over the past decade either even though the Arab League did. Algeria’s leadership thus also has an ideological interest in complicating an imperialist invasion of Niger.

Taken together, these security and ideological interests account for why the Algerian Chief of Staff just flew to Moscow. His country wants to coordinate with its strategic partner in responding to this regional crisis as well as the wider war that might soon break out. While Algeria’s role isn’t as important as Nigeria’s could be in leading the NATO-backed ECOWAS invasion of Niger nor Chad’s in possibly being the kingmaker, it’s still pretty significant and shouldn’t be ignored or downplayed.

August 1, 2023 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , | Leave a comment

Niger junta says France plotting to ‘intervene militarily’

AFP | July 31, 2023

Niger’s new junta on Monday accused France of seeking to “intervene militarily” to reinstate deposed President Mohamed Bazoum as tension mounted with the former colonial power and neighbours.

Bazoum, a western ally whose election just over two years ago was a watershed in Niger’s troubled history, was toppled on July 26 by the elite Presidential Guard.

Guards chief General Abdourahamane Tiani declared himself leader — but his claim has been shunned internationally and the West African bloc ECOWAS has given him a week to hand back power.

Bazoum’s PNDS party on Monday warned Niger risked becoming a “dictatorial and totalitarian regime” after a series of arrests.

On Monday morning, Oil Minister Mahamane Sani Mahamadou — the son of influential former president Mahamadou Issoufou — and Mining Minister Ousseini Hadizatou were arrested, the party charged.

The head of the PNDS’s national executive committee, Fourmakoye Gado, was also arrested, it said.

The junta had previously arrested the interior minister, the transport minister and a former defence minister, the party said.

On Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron vowed “immediate and uncompromising” action if French citizens or interests were attacked after thousands rallied outside the French embassy.

Some tried to enter the compound but were dispersed by tear gas.

‘Plotting intervention’

The junta on Monday accused France of plotting an intervention.

“In its search for ways and means to intervene militarily in Niger, France with the complicity of some Nigeriens, held a meeting with the chief of staff of the Nigerien National Guard to obtain the necessary political and military authorisation,” the putschists said on national TV.

They also said six people needed hospitalisation after the embassy security services fired tear gas against the rally.

A demonstration in support of the junta was also held in Zinder, eastern Niger, on Monday.

Tough ECOWAS warning

On Sunday, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) sounded a tough warning.

The bloc demanded that Bazoum be reinstated within a week, failing which it would take “all measures” to restore constitutional order, which “may include the use of force”.

“No more time for us to send a warning signal… It’s time for action,” said ECOWAS chairman Bola Tinubu, president of Nigeria — Niger’s neighbour to the southeast and the regional superpower.

Russia called for the swift return of “the rule of law” and “restraint from all parties so that this doesn’t result in human casualties”.

Niger became the third Sahel country in less than three years, following neighbours Mali and Burkina Faso, to be shaken by a military coup.

In all three nations, a jihadist insurgency strained fragile governments, stoked anger in the military and rained economic blows on some of the world’s poorest countries.

The overthrow of elected presidents has been accompanied by anti-French, pro-Russian demonstrations.

Crucial ally

Protesters say France, the country’s traditional ally, has failed to shield them against the jihadists, whereas Russia would be a stronger ally.

In Mali, a 2020 putsch led to a bust-up with France which last year withdrew its troops as the junta brought in Russian paramilitaries.

France also quit Burkina Faso after two coups last year brought in a junta that adopted a nationalist line.

The withdrawals prompted France to reconfigure its decade-long anti-jihadist strategy in the Sahel, concentrating on Niger, where it fields 1,500 troops with a major air base near Niamey.

The latest coup, according to the putschists, was a response to “the degradation of the security situation” linked to the jihadist conflict, as well as corruption and economic woes.

International critics have ratcheted up pressure, targeting trade and development aid.

ECOWAS has suspended all commercial and financial transactions, while France, the European Union and the United States, which has 1,100 troops in Niger, have either cut off support or threatened to do so.

Germany suspended financial aid and development cooperation on Monday, and UN humanitarian operations have also been put on hold.

Niger has seen four coups since independence from France in 1960 and numerous other attempts, including two previously against Bazoum.

The 63-year-old is a former interior minister whose elections marked Niger’s first peaceful transition of power since independence.

August 1, 2023 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Al Jazeera & Politico Shed Light On The Real Reasons Why Nigeria Might Invade Niger

By ANDREW KORYBKO | AUGUST 1, 2023

The fast-moving developments since last week’s patriotic military coup in Niger strongly suggest that “West Africa Is Gearing Up For A Regional War” between NATO-backed Nigerian-led ECOWAS and the Russian-backed de facto Burkinabe-Malian federation over that country’s future government. Those readers who aren’t aware of what’s been happening should reference the preceding hyperlinked analysis for background before proceeding with the rest of this piece, which assumes familiarity with the subject.

Al Jazeera and Politico likely didn’t intend to, but two of their articles on recent events shed light on the real reasons why Nigeria might invade Niger. Respectively titled “A test of wills: Can ECOWAS reverse Niger coup and establish a new order?” and “What Niger’s coup means for Nigeria”, they both suggest that ulterior motives are at play beyond restoring that country’s ousted leader just for the supposedly principled sake of defending democracy.

Beginning with Al Jazeera’s piece, it starts off by quoting the speech that newly inaugurated Nigerian President Bola Tinubu gave at ECOWAS early last month after he was elected chairman of this regional bloc. He said that “We must stand firm on democracy. There is no governance, freedom and rule of law without democracy.” This outlet noted that his words were soon put to the test two weeks later, hinting that he’s pressured to make good on rhetoric about something that he didn’t expect would happen.

They then cite the opinion of a former director of political affairs at the ECOWAS Commission who declared that “With Tinubu’s posture, we can see that Nigeria is back on stage.” This person’s position makes them biased towards that group and its regional role, but their particular quote inadvertently reveals that Tinubu is talking tough towards Niger for the sake of boosting his country’s prestige. To their credit, Al Jazeera seemed to have picked up on this as well as evidenced by what they later wrote:

“Within Nigeria, Tinubu’s assertiveness is being perceived as an intent to shore up popularity abroad while he is increasingly unpopular at home. His victory in the February presidential election is being contested by the two largest opposition parties who cite widespread electoral malpractice and claim he was ineligible to run. A string of early reforms – including the removal of a popular fuel subsidy – intended to overhaul Africa’s biggest economy has also led to spiralling costs of living.”

This is a damning explanation of the ulterior domestic motives behind the ultimatum that Tinubu gave Niger on behalf of the bloc that he now chairs. It’s basically a risky distraction from problems at home that’s being justified on the pretext of defending democracy, which uncoincidentally aligns with one of the mantras of the West’s so-called ‘rules-based order’. Al Jazeera also cited an Africa expert at Oxford Analytica who alleged that reversing the recent regime change could help thwart terrorist threats.

On the other hand, a Nigeria expert at the International Crisis Group told them that “Military interventions could also be unpopular in Nigeria and possibly lead to protests.” They also warned that this could “reduce pressure on jihadists and bandits in the Lake Chad area and create room for the expansion of their operation.” All things considered, Al Jazeera’s article on this subject was surprisingly critical of Nigeria’s potential invasion of Niger, thus making it a refreshing read.

The same can be said for Politico’s, which is much shorter but still contains some similarly damning explanations of what’s really driving events behind the scenes. They started off by quoting a senior fellow at the influential Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) who fearmongered that “Not only will failure to act send a signal that Tinubu and ECOWAS can only bark, but not bite, it will embolden military adventurers in other West African countries as well as the Russia-backed Wagner Group.”

The reality is corrupt Western puppets’ neglect of their countries’ objective national interests led to deteriorating economic and security situations that prompted the region’s spree of military coups, not anything else. Regarding Wagner, these juntas then tend to turn towards this group (whose post-mutiny ties with the Kremlin are clarified here) since it specializes in “Democratic Security”, or counter-Hybrid Warfare tactics and strategies that readers can learn about in the foregoing hyperlinked analyses.

Russia’s interest in securing their national models of democracy from (mostly Western-emanating) hybrid threats is twofold since it sincerely wants to empower them to become sovereign subjects in the Multipolar World Order but it also benefits by stopping the West from exploiting their resources. If the West treated African states as truly equal partners like Russia does, then it would stamp out terrorism and stop subjugating them as vassals so that they wouldn’t have a reason to consider switching partners.

With this fact-check in mind, it’s clear that Politico’s cited CFR expert explained the reasons why the West wants Nigeria to invade Niger instead of even attempting to put forth a reason why it would allegedly be in that country’s national interests to do so. This New Cold War bloc fears that the region’s newest junta will ally with Russia via Wagner and thus further accelerate the collapse of their influence across the continent, though this might be averted if Nigeria forcibly reinstalls the old regime.

Just like Al Jazeera, Politico also deserves credit for implying that Tinubu has ulterior domestic motives behind doing the West’s bidding when writing that “Nigeria’s influence has been slipping in recent years, as it grapples with economic malaise and security challenges that festered under the prior president, Muhammadu Buhari. Since succeeding Buhari, Tinubu has been trying to placate different religious and ethnic groups at home upset over the February election results, which the opposition has disputed.”

What these two outlets’ pieces on this subject show is that newly inaugurated Nigerian President Tinubu might invade Niger out of desperation to distract from economic and political problems at home despite telling the world that this is to defend democracy in that neighboring nation. The corrupt confluence of his domestic interests and the West’s geopolitical ones greatly raises the odds that this could soon happen, though it remains to be seen whether it’ll succeed and how strong the blowback might be.

August 1, 2023 Posted by | Aletho News | , , | Leave a comment

One Pfizer jab, 20 months of battling to keep hope alive

By Brian Howard | TCW Defending Freedom | January 23, 2023

It has been a very long 20 months since my one and only Pfizer vaccine. I was hesitant but seeing friends and family seemingly OK I decided to ‘do the right thing’ as we were told. The regret still lives on, of course, although over time you do begin to forgive yourself and recognise the huge pressures we were all under.

Within ten days it started. Pins and needles in the hands at night. Then numbness down the whole right side of my body. Then the constant muscle twitches all over the legs. Within a month the tremors started. By this stage I’d already been fobbed off by my GP and a private neurologist. They didn’t want to know or simply didn’t have a clue how to help. I’ll never forget another neurologist suggesting I even take the second jab. Trust in the system had gone at that point. The symptoms continued. Random jolty movements of the body, intense dizziness, headaches and head pressure, brain-shaking sensations, adrenaline rushes, some elevated heart rate episodes. By the six-month point I was rapidly losing hope. You try to stay positive but it really can be a battle. I was fortunate enough to be self-employed and able to work from home but I had to let jobs go as it became far too much, and the money spent on finding alternative therapies and supplements to fix the problem wiped out any savings I had left.

Eventually I started to see some glimmers of improvement, finding certain things that seemed to at least provide relief. It was slow but bit by bit I could sense some progress. At the 20-month point many of the symptoms are still there and I still have a daily battle with them but generally they are at a far more manageable level. The relapses send you backwards, but you get used to them. It feels odd sometimes to say I’ve got used to any of this. I was perfectly healthy before. Never had any prior issues but when this happens you are forced to adapt pretty quickly. You start to forget what it felt like before all of this.

Beyond the physical, all of us have experienced the gaslighting from the medical profession, the online hatred of the vaccine-injured, the censorship by Big Tech. Whether you like it or not it forces you to see the world very differently.

There are positives. For me that comes from the amazing communities of vaccine-injured who have united to help each other, to listen to each other with an openness and compassion that gives me a great deal of hope for the future. To see what a group of people from all over the country and all over the world can do when they simply come together is quite something. The connections you make and communities you become a part of are like a beacon of light.

That’s why we must keep talking. We know there are more of us out there and they need to know that they are not alone.

Brian is a member of UK CV Family, a vaccine injured support group, that can be contacted here. https://www.ukcvfamily.org

August 1, 2023 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

Interpreting Russia’s Official Response To The Nigerien Coup

BY ANDREW KORYBKO | JULY 31, 2023

Last week’s patriotic military coup in Niger could be a game-changer in the New Cold War as was explained here, though this analysis here argues that it might be nipped in the bud if Nigeria ultimately does the West’s bidding by leading an ECOWAS invasion force aimed at reinstalling the ousted president. Those who aren’t already aware of the insight shared in those analyses should at least skim them in order to be brought up to speed and thus better understand Russia’s official response to this event.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on 27 July that “We believe the coup is an anti-constitutional act. We always occupy a clear position in such cases…We reaffirm our position that it is necessary to restore the constitutional order in Niger.” One day later on 28 July, his country joined its fellow permanent UNSC members in issuing a joint statement that “strongly condemned the efforts to unconstitutionally change the legitimate Government of the Republic of Niger on 26 July 2023.”

They also “expressed support for the efforts of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union…(and) underscored the urgent need for the restoration of constitutional order in Niger in accordance with the ECOWAS Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance and expressed their support for regional and continental mediation efforts.” Two days later on 30 July, the AU and ECOWAS gave the junta a two-week and one-week ultimatum respectively.

If President Mohamed Bazoum isn’t reinstalled by then, they warned of “punitive measures” that could include the “use of force”. This sequence of events shows that the AU-ECOWAS duopoly is exploiting the UNSC joint statement as the pretext for invading Niger in order to secure their Western patrons’ interests there. None of this is surprising, however, which is why some might wonder why Russia agreed to the same statement that’s being taken advantage of to legitimize its rivals’ regional power play.

For starters, Russia always officially condemns anti-constitutional seizures of power, with this being more symbolically important than ever after Ukraine’s Western-backed and fascist-driven “EuroMaidan” coup in spring 2014. That said, this stance and its associated support of peaceful means for restoring the constitutional order in countries that experience these sorts of regime changes don’t automatically equate to it endorsing Western-encouraged invasions to this end.

It’s important to note that neither the AU nor its West African-Sahel ECOWAS enforcers put forth their ominous ultimatums by the time that Russia agreed to the UNSC joint statement on Niger. Even though it should have been foreseeable that these threats would follow, the fact that they hadn’t yet officially been made meant that there wasn’t any diplomatic pretext for Russia to break with precedent. For that reason, it supported the UNSC joint statement, which promoted mediation efforts.

The next point to make is that the West has been fearmongering that the Kremlin had a hidden hand in previous military coups in the West Africa-Sahel Region so it would have come off as very suspicious if Russia was reluctant to condemn this latest coup. That approach would have likely fueled an even more intense round of information warfare falsely alleging that Moscow was behind this regime change, thus justifying the planned Western-encouraged ECOWAS-led invasion on an urgent anti-Russian pretext.

And finally, since it can’t be taken for granted that the Nigerien junta will successfully repel this invasion in the likely scenario that it’s commenced sometime after the AU’s two-week ultimatum expires, it doesn’t make sense for Russia to signal support for what might very well be a doomed cause. Doing so would be detrimental to its soft power interests since the collapse of that junta could then be spun as a joint Western-African victory over Russia in the New Cold War.

None of this is to suggest that Russia is seriously opposed to the junta becoming an interim/transitional government, however, since precedent shows that it has no problem cultivating mutually beneficial relations with military rulers in the region like Mali’s and Burkina Faso’s. If the likely scenario of a French-backed ECOWAS-led invasion doesn’t materialize, yet without the coup leaders capitulating to pressure to reinstall Bazoum, then Niger will probably become Russia’s next strategic partner in the region.

July 31, 2023 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , , | Leave a comment

UK Weighs In on What’s Slowing Ukraine’s Counteroffensive

By Oleg Burunov – Sputnik – 29.07.2023

The UK Defense Ministry admitted in its recent intelligence report that the Russian Ka-52M crews successfully launch LMUR missiles beyond the range of Ukrainian air defense systems.

Russia’s Ka­-52M attack helicopters are equipped with a “new and highly effective” long-range missile that poses a serious threat to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF), a US magazine has reported.

The missile is technically known as the Izdeliye (Product) 305 and is also referred to by its Russian acronym LMUR (light multi-purpose guided missile).

The magazine cited the UK Defense Ministry’s recent Intelligence Update as saying that one of the key improvements of the Ka-52M is the integration of the LMUR, a new anti-tank missile, which has a range of approximately 15 km.

“Ka-52 crews have been quick to exploit opportunities to launch these weapons beyond the range of Ukrainian air defenses,” according to the British Defense Ministry intelligence report.

The magazine in turn called the “notably deadly” LMUR a “real escalation in the helicopter capabilities” of the Russian army, recalling that a non-­upgraded version of the Ka-52 is typically fitted with laser-guided Vikhr and ATAKA anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM), with ranges of around 10 km and 6 km, respectively.

“The LMUR is in a different league. […] Rather than relying on laser guidance, the LMUR uses a combination of thermal imaging and satellite navigation. In direct-fire mode, the operator locks the thermal seeker on to a target and fires. For longer-range encounters though, the operator can fire the missile from out of sight towards specified coordinates, then use the missile’s thermal imager to find and lock on to the target,” the news outlet added.

In an apparent nod to the Ka-52M being used in the Russian special military operation, the magazine noted that the concept of anti-tank helicopters capable of striking from stand-off distances “seems to be working” in Ukraine.

The media outlet warned that if the UAF fails to tackle “the threat posed by Russian helicopters with the LMURs, the progress of the [Ukrainian] offensive is likely to be slow and bloody.”

This comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin said that all attempts by the UAF to re-launch their counteroffensive have been halted and the enemy has been pushed back, suffering heavy losses.

Putin told the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg earlier this week that during the UAF’s latest attack, more than 200 Ukrainian soldiers were killed and that Russian forces had destroyed at least 26 enemy tanks. He added that 60% of the UAF’s military hardware had already been obliterated during the renewed hostilities.

The Russian president spoke after a US newspaper reported about UAF forces purportedly launching “the main thrust of their counteroffensive” as they threw in “thousands of troops held in reserve, many of them Western-trained and equipped.”

Putin previously told a Russian Security Council meeting that Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which kicked off in early June, had yielded no results and that the UAF had suffered extensive losses, with “tens of thousands” of soldiers killed.

The LMUR was for the first time on display at the International Military and Technical Forum ARMY 2021. The missile is designed to destroy single and group stationary and moving targets at any time of the day and in any weather conditions.

The Product 305 has a high-explosive fragmentation warhead weighing 25 kg and provides high accuracy in hitting targets with a deviation from the aiming line of no more than two meters.

July 29, 2023 Posted by | Aletho News | , | Leave a comment

What a coincidence: Dengue cases skyrocket just as dengue vaccine approaches licensure

And just as Bill Gates is rolling out his genetically engineered mosquitos

BY MERYL NASS | JULY 26, 2023

One dengue vaccine was licensed in the US in 2019 after killing dozens of kids in the Philippines. Philippine Ministry of Health and Sanofi officials went on trial for manslaughter in that case, just before the FDA issued the same vaccine a license. While the license was only issued for people aged 9-16, and only if they had had dengue once already, your tax dollars rolled it out all over Puerto Rico. Will all vaccinators follow those strictures?

Here’s what CDC notes about the licensed vaccine:

This vaccine is different from other vaccines in that it is only recommended for people who have already been infected with dengue virus. The reason is that children without previous dengue infection are at increased risk for severe dengue disease and hospitalization if they get dengue after they are vaccinated with Dengvaxia. Therefore, healthcare providers should check for evidence of a laboratory-confirmed previous dengue infection before vaccination.

Another dengue vaccine has come before the VRBPAC FDA committee twice, and I blogged those meetings. It appears it only works for 2 of the 4 dengue strains. It supposedly did not need a blood test before use. Takeda is the manufacturer and it describes the vaccine here.

Epoch Times reports:

The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that cases of dengue fever could reach record highs this year.

Dengue rates are rising globally, with reported cases since 2000 up eight-fold to 4.2 million in 2022, a WHO official said on July 21.

In January, the WHO claimed that dengue is the world’s fastest-spreading tropical disease and alleged it could be a “pandemic threat.”

The disease was found in Sudan’s capital Khartoum for the first time on record, according to a health ministry report in March, while Europe has reported a surge in cases and Peru declared a state of emergency in most regions.

About half of the world’s population is now at risk, Raman Velayudhan, a specialist at the WHO’s control of neglected tropical diseases department, told journalists in Geneva on Friday.

Cases reported to the WHO hit an all-time high in 2019 with 5.2 million cases in 129 countries, said Mr. Velayudhan via video link.

I’m wondering how big the dengue market will get, given that no one had heard of RSV a year ago, and now the GSK and Pfizer RSV vaccines for elders are predicted to be worth $9 billion. No one had heard of dengue. But they will hear about it now.

July 28, 2023 Posted by | Aletho News | | Leave a comment

Russia Will Not Renew International Grain Deal; Some Context

By Ted Snider | The Libertarian Institute | July 27, 2023

Like the war that necessitated it, Russia’s decision not to renew the United Nations and Turkish-brokered grain deal is bad for the world but not wholly unprovoked.

The deal allowed Ukraine safe passage for its grain laden ships through the mined and blockaded Black Sea ports so it could continue to export its agriculture to the world.

On July 17, Russia announced its decision not to renew the deal.

It has repeatedly been reported that Russia’s decision is retaliation for Ukraine’s recent sabotage of the Kerch Strait bridge that links Crimea to the Russian mainland. But President Vladimir Putin had announced the distinct possibility of suspending the agreement prior to the attack on the bridge.

During a July 13 question period, in a response to a journalist, Putin said, prior to the attack on the bridge, “We can suspend our participation in this deal.”

Putin gave two reasons for suspending the deal after having “extended this so-called deal many times.” The first is that, though it was Russia that suspended the deal, it was the West that broke it. “As for the conditions under which we agreed to ensure the safe export of Ukrainian grain, yes, there were clauses in this agreement with the United Nations, according to which Russian interests had to be taken into account as well,” Putin said. “Not a single clause related to what is in the interests of the Russian Federation has been fulfilled.”

Announcing the decision not to renew the deal four days later, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov repeated that charge; “Unfortunately, the part of the Black Sea agreement that concerns Russia has not yet been fulfilled. As a result, it has been terminated.” However, he added that “As soon as the Russian part [of the deal] is fulfilled, the Russian side will immediately return to the implementation of this deal.” Putin made a similar pledge in his answer to the journalist. One option, he said, is “not first the extension and then the honouring of promises, but first the honouring of promises and then our participation. What do I mean? We can suspend our participation in this deal, and if everybody once again says that all the promises made to us will be fulfilled, let them fulfil them—and we will immediately join this deal. Again.”

George Beebe of the Quincy Institute has written that “Russia’s withdrawal from the deal is part of classic negotiating behavior, after its repeated demands went unaddressed by partners to the deal.”

While Russia kept its promise to allow Ukraine to export its grain, Moscow argues that the West failed to implement their commitments on facilitating Russian exports of grains and fertilizer due to an impossible to navigate web of sanctions and the failure to reconnect the Russian Agricultural Bank to the SWIFT financial system to enable payments.

Though better known as the ‘grain deal,’ the deal was meant to facilitate the export of fertilizer as well. As early as the end of April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had complained that Russian cargo vessels carrying fertilizer were paralyzed in European ports. Russia has been unable to export its fertilizer. The world also watched silently with no condemnation when Russia’s Togliatti-Odessa pipeline that carries ammonia necessary for fertilizer was sabotaged.

The second reason is not about the failure to meet the conditions of the deal, but about the failure to meet the purpose of the deal. Putin has frequently pointed out that “this whole deal was presented under the pretext of ensuring the interests of African countries” whose food security was threatened. Instead, from Russia’s perspective, the deal has boosted the economy of Russia’s enemy by allowing Ukraine to export grain and boosted the economy of those supporting Russia’s enemy by allowing western Europe to import that grain while helping African countries barely at all.

Putin has repeatedly claimed that Ukrainian grain exported under the deal is not reaching Africa but is headed, instead, for Europe. He has claimed at various times that “about 45 percent of the total volume of grain exported from Ukraine went to European countries, and only three percent went to Africa.” In his response to the journalist, Putin again said that “only a little more than 3% went to the poorest countries—a bit over 3%. Everything else went to a well-fed and prosperous Europe.”

And he’s not wrong. Though Africa has benefitted from the deal indirectly by stabilizing global supply and prices, they have not been the direct beneficiaries. While only 12% of the grain has reached Africa, 40% went to Western Europe, according to the World Food Program. The biggest recipients of Ukraine’s grain have been China, Spain, Turkey, Italy, and the Netherlands. 80% of the grain has gone to upper-middle and high income countries, and 44% going to high income countries, but only 2.5% has made its way to low-income countries, according to the most recent UN data.

Russia, though, has sent many tonnes of grain to Africa; 11.5 million tonnes in 2022 and 10 million in the first half of 2023, according to Putin. And, in November 2022, Russia agreed to send grain to some African countries for free. Putin has repeatedly promised that, were the deal not to be extended, “Russia will be ready to supply the same amount that was delivered under the deal, from Russia to the African countries in great need, at no expense.” After the decision not to extend the deal, Putin wrote an article for African media repeating that promise directly to the people of Africa: “I want to give assurances that our country is capable of replacing the Ukrainian grain both on a commercial and free-of-charge basis… Notwithstanding the sanctions, Russia will continue its energetic efforts to provide supplies of grain, food products, fertilisers and other goods to Africa.” Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said that, despite Western obstacles in the form of logistics, ship insurance and payments, “We will help those in need, we will find a way to do it, both with grain and fertilizers.” The Kremlin says that the offer of free grain is on the agenda of the second Russia-Africa summit being held in St. Petersburg this week.

Though Russia’s decision not to extend the grain deal is harmful to the world, like the war itself, it has been presented as emerging without antecedents. The narrative has frequently been distorted by discussing the decision not to extend the deal in isolation from its important context. The decision was not spontaneous retribution for the attack on the Kerch Strait bridge; it was a long, thought out negotiation strategy in response to promises made to Russia not being fulfilled. The announcement of the decision was also accompanied by the assurance that Russia would immediately return to the deal when those promises were fulfilled. The decision was also the product of Russia’s frustration that the deal was not only failing to benefit Russia as promised, but that it was failing to benefit Africa as promised while supporting the economies of Ukraine and the wealthy Western European countries who are helping it in its fight against Russia.

July 27, 2023 Posted by | Aletho News | , , , | Leave a comment

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