UAE provides $100m for US-backed Gaza police force vetted by Shin Bet
The Cradle | May 8, 2026
The UAE has sent $100 million to US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace to fund the training of a new Palestinian police force for Gaza, the Times of Israel reported on 8 May, citing a US official and a diplomat from West Asia.
Setting up a security force to control Gaza on Israel’s behalf will reportedly allow Tel Aviv to sideline Hamas while reducing the presence of the Israeli army, which is suffering from manpower shortages.
The police force is being organized under the umbrella of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), a panel of Palestinian technocrats tasked by the Board of Peace and Israel to administer the Strip.
Though the NCAG was created three months ago, its members have not yet entered the Strip, reportedly due to a lack of funding and security.
“No money is currently available,” Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenovas privately acknowledged, according to a Palestinian official familiar with the matter speaking with Reuters.
The proposal envisions the new police force seizing weapons in Gaza as part of the effort to disarm Hamas.
Nevertheless, Hamas has yet to agree to disarm, as Israel has not adhered to the terms of the US-sponsored ceasefire that was signed in October 2025.
According to the ceasefire agreement, Israel was required to withdraw their forces to areas near the border, dismantle all military sites and installations, allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes in the north of the Strip, open the Rafah crossing, and allow humanitarian aid to enter freely.
Israel has also killed over 800 Palestinians in Gaza since the ceasefire took effect.
In February, the NCAG began recruiting for the new 27,000-strong police force. Recruits will be vetted by Israel’s internal security service, the Shin Bet, according to an Arab diplomat who spoke with the Times of Israel in March.
An Emirati security firm will train the recruits in Egypt and Jordan before dispatching them to Gaza.
In February, US President Donald Trump announced $17 billion in pledges for the Board of Peace at a donor conference. He also demanded that world leaders contribute $1 billion each for a seat on the board, which he said would rival the UN.
However, the $100 million contribution from the UAE is the largest pledged amount the board has received so far. The board has not received the billions in contributions initially pledged by the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.
One source with direct knowledge of the peace board’s operations told Reuters that Washington and Tel Aviv’s war of aggression against Iran “affected everything.”
The Board of Peace is also working to establish and deploy a proposed International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza, which is expected to include soldiers from several foreign countries. This move would enable the Israeli army to further outsource its ethnic cleansing efforts.
Indonesia, Albania, Kazakhstan, and Kosovo have each pledged troops to the ISF, but so far none have been deployed or begun training, amid fears they may have to use violence to disarm Hamas on Israel’s behalf.
The UAE has supported Israel not only in Gaza but also in its war with Iran.
The New York Times reported on Friday that the UAE has “doubled down on its alliances with Israel and the United States,” despite Iranian drone and missile strikes targeting the Emirates in retaliation for their support for the US-Israeli war on the Islamic Republic.
“There is a trust premium that Trump will do the right thing,” said Nadim Koteich, an Emirati-Lebanese commentator who is close to the Emirati government. “What suits his legacy and what suits the American interests suits us.”
The UAE has also partnered with Israel and Somaliland to create a new “strategic axis” in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea in a bid to project power into Africa and counter the Ansarallah-led Yemeni Armed Forces.
Britain quietly approves $11.85m arms licence to Israel despite Gaza ban
MEMO | May 8, 2026
The UK Department for Business and Trade (DBT) has granted two new licences for the export of military equipment to Israel, including an £8.7 ($11.85) million licence covering “components and technology for targeting equipment”, the Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT) has revealed.
The licences were issued despite the British government’s September 2024 suspension of such exports over fears they would be used in Israel’s genocide in Gaza. CAAT’s analysis of UK export licensing statistics for the fourth quarter of 2025, published on 30 April, found that the UK issued export licences worth £20.5 ($27.9) million in total for transfers to Israel during the quarter.
The most significant of the new approvals was an Open Individual Export Licence for “components and technology for targeting equipment” — a category of export the UK government had publicly suspended eight months earlier, citing the risk of use in Israel’s genocide in Gaza. When questioned about the licence, DBT replied that it “covers items for re-export from Israel, and the Government of Israel is not an end-user or ultimate end-user. This is consistent with our suspension”.
CAAT said the defence rested on a legal fiction. The watchdog warned of the risk of “auto-diversion”: a process by which Israel can fail to retransfer military equipment to its declared destination and instead assign it to an unauthorised end-user, such as the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), for use in Gaza.
Such a move would constitute a breach of the export licence and a potential criminal offence under UK law. British ministers have previously said they would revoke any licence should “any evidence” emerge that exported equipment had not reached its declared destination, but CAAT noted that the UK government makes no known efforts to verify what happens to its military exports after they leave Britain.
The watchdog’s concerns are not theoretical. In March, an investigation revealed that an Elbit-owned subsidiary in the UK had shipped dozens of drone components, including Watchkeeper engines, to Israel over an 18-month period.
Israel had failed to retransfer the equipment to Romania as required by the licence, citing force majeure arising from its assault on Gaza. The contract with Romania has still not been fulfilled. Elbit announced it would start delivering the drones only two days after Romania threatened to cancel the contract.
A second new licence covers components for military training aircraft, and related technology, for transfer to France, Greece, Israel and Italy — likely supplied by the US aerospace firm Moog for the M-346 Lead-In Fighter Trainer produced by Italy’s Leonardo.
The M-346 is used in every phase of advanced and pre-operational training for Israeli pilots before they fly combat missions in Gaza, Iran and Lebanon using F-16 and F-35 jets. Israel has caused massive devastation with F-35 jets across Gaza, Iran and Lebanon. Similar components shipped by Moog from the UK were recently seized by authorities in Belgium, who have since opened a criminal investigation.
CAAT’s Research Coordinator Sam Perlo-Freeman said the new licences exposed the limits of the British government’s stated policy.
“These new export licenses show just how willing the UK is to continue enabling Israel’s genocidal assaults, while staying within the technical rule of a vastly insufficient and ineffective policy towards IDF war crimes,” he said.
“The targeting equipment for which DBT granted a license, for transfer to and re-export by Israel, could easily be used in Gaza. Given Israel’s history of weapons diversion and illicit transfers, and outstanding questions about Elbit drone components failing to arrive in Romania, there remains a grave risk that Israel will auto-divert the targeting equipment to the IDF for use in Palestine.”
Perlo-Freeman explained that the British government was leaning on a system of declarations it has no power to enforce. “DBT is relying on end-user undertakings that hold no legal force in Israel, which the UK government does not check up on and cannot enforce. The exporter is technically in-the-clear, so long as it can’t be shown they knew the end-user undertaking was false.”
Israeli ‘double tap’ strike hits paramedics in south Lebanon hours after renewed bombing of Beirut
The Cradle | May 7, 2026
An Israeli “double tap” strike targeted paramedics in the southern Lebanese town of Toul on 7 May, coinciding with brutal attacks across southern Lebanon and just hours after Tel Aviv’s first attack on Beirut since the start of the so-called “ceasefire.”
“An enemy drone struck the Toul area. After the attack, the Islamic Health Authority’s Civil Defense team went to inspect the site, before enemy warplanes launched another raid on the area, which resulted in the injury of two members of the rescue team and significant damage to the ambulance,” Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) reported.
Video footage captured the exact moment the Islamic Health Authority’s vehicle was bombed by the occupation army. Over 100 Lebanese medics have been killed by Israel since the war began.
Footage on social media also showed large explosions as a result of violent Israeli strikes on the town of Yater on Thursday. The town has been bombed 27 times over the past 24 hours.
Earlier, an Israeli attack hit the vicinity of the Evangelical School in Nabatieh, killing a delivery driver who was on duty.
Additionally, strikes hit Zefta, Qaqaait al-Jisr, Adchit, and several other Lebanese towns.
The violent attacks came as Hezbollah continues to confront Israeli troops occupying southern Lebanon.
“The Mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance targeted a D9 bulldozer belonging to the Israeli enemy army at Khalleh al-Raj in the town of Deir Siryan at 08:45 AM on Thursday, 07-05-2026, with an attack drone, and achieved a confirmed hit,” the Lebanese resistance announced.
Al-Jarmaq News, citing Hebrew sources, reported that 10 Israeli soldiers were wounded in an explosive drone attack in southern Lebanon and transferred to Rambam Hospital in Haifa on Thursday morning.
Seventeen soldiers are currently being treated at the hospital, including four in serious condition, the report added.
On Wednesday night, Israel carried out its first strikes in Beirut since Iran imposed a truce on the capital last month. The attack targeted a building in Haret Hreik.
The Israeli military claimed this was a targeted assassination of the chief of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Unit, identifying him as Ahmad Ghaleb Ballout.
Hezbollah has yet to comment on the deadly violation, which resulted in one death and multiple injuries.
Israel’s Channel 14 said Tel Aviv will continue assassinations and “act anywhere” against Hezbollah figures if the opportunity arises.
Other Hebrew reports said Israel does not consider this a ceasefire violation but rather a “preemptive” attack aimed at “thwarting threats.”
Since Tel Aviv’s war and ground assault against Lebanon began in early March, the Israeli army has occupied dozens of Lebanese villages, establishing a Gaza-style buffer zone area which has been labeled the “Forward Defense Line.”
Hezbollah fighters remain present across this line, carrying out daily FPV drone attacks which have become a major challenge to Israeli forces.
Occupation Bulldozes Farmland, Uproots Vineyards
IMEMC | May 7, 2026
On Wednesday, Israeli occupation forces invaded the Al‑Baq’a area east of Hebron, in the occupied West Bank’s southern region, and carried out a large‑scale destruction of Palestinian agricultural land, uprooting thousands of grape vines and bulldozing more than 200 dunams of privately owned farmland over the past three days, in one of the largest agricultural demolitions reported in the district this year.
Eyewitnesses said multiple military units accompanied Israeli bulldozers as they invaded the area at dawn, sealed all access roads, and prevented Palestinian farmers from reaching their land while the machinery destroyed entire vineyards, vegetable fields, and irrigation networks.
The bulldozing and uprooting of the privately owned Palestinian land was carried out under the pretext of expanding the colonial bypass road known as “Route 60.”
According to the Hebron Directorate of Agriculture, the targeted zone is part of one of the most important agricultural areas in the governorate, known for its high‑quality grape production.
Officials confirmed that more than 200 dunams were bulldozed and that 40,000 productive grape vines—many of them decades old—were completely uprooted. The destruction remained ongoing throughout the day.
Farmers from Al‑Baq’a said the occupation is bulldozing land on both sides of the bypass road at a depth of up to 20 meters, destroying vineyards, seasonal crops, and greenhouses.
Soldiers threatened anyone who attempted to approach their land and refused to allow families to salvage tools, irrigation pipes, or agricultural equipment.
Residents stressed that the area produces over 13,000 tons of grapes annually, in addition to 1,000 tons of grape leaves, forming the primary source of income for hundreds of Palestinian families.
The Al‑Baq’a area has long been targeted by the occupation and by illegal paramilitary Israeli colonizers from nearby colonies, who have repeatedly attempted to seize agricultural land, attack farmers, and block access to fields.
Local human rights groups say the current destruction is part of a broader campaign to forcibly remove Palestinian communities from fertile agricultural zones surrounding Hebron.
‘Israel’ kills Azzam al-Hayya, son of Hamas chief Khalil al-Hayya

Al Mayadeen | May 7, 2026
Azzam al-Hayya, the son of Khalil al-Hayya, leader of the Hamas Resistance movement in Gaza, was martyred on Thursday after succumbing to wounds he sustained in an Israeli attack on Gaza City on Wednesday evening, according to Al Mayadeen’s correspondent.
The correspondent reported on Wednesday night that Hamza al-Sharbasi was killed and Azzam Khalil al-Hayya was injured in an Israeli airstrike near the Jabalia bus stop in the al-Daraj neighborhood, in central Gaza City.
PIJ condemns assassinating Resistance forces, their leaders
The Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement condemned the assault, saying, “The government of war criminals in the occupying entity continues to escalate its crimes against the Gaza Strip.”
In a statement, the movement noted that “the occupation army is carrying out ongoing assaults aimed at assassinating Resistance forces and their leaders, particularly within Islamic Jihad and Hamas.”
It further highlighted that the latest in these assassinations was “the treacherous airstrike that targeted Hamza al-Sharbasi, a leader in the al-Qassam Brigades, yesterday.”
“The attack also injured several others, including the martyr Azzam, the son of Khalil al-Hayya, the head of the Hamas movement in Gaza, who succumbed to his wounds this morning,” the movement added.
The PIJ accused “Israel” of using the strikes to impose its terms on Gaza, evade agreed-upon ceasefire commitments, block reconstruction efforts, and continue committing massacres, including by disrupting the Rafah crossing.
‘Israel’ continues its genocide amid so-called ceasefire
In a separate incident on May 6, and as part of ongoing Israeli violations, several Palestinians were wounded when an Israeli strike targeted a displacement camp in Gaza City’s al-Zaytoun neighborhood.
Further south, police colonel Naseem al-Kalzzani was killed and others were injured after an Israeli strike targeted his vehicle in the al-Mawasi area of Khan Younis.
Hamas said the escalation by the Israeli occupation forces, which continued to target civilians in Gaza, constituted a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement. The movement called on the United States administration and the guarantor states of the Sharm el-Sheikh agreement to intervene immediately to restrain Israel.
Despite the ceasefire reached in October 2025, Israeli forces have continued near-daily aggression across the Gaza Strip.
According to Gaza’s Ministry of Health, the death toll has risen to 837, with 2,381 wounded and 769 bodies of martyrs retrieved since the ceasefire took effect.
The cumulative toll since the start of the Israeli genocide on 7 October 2023 has reached 72,619 killed and 172,484 injured.
German arson case: Antisemitism commissioner’s inner circle now top suspects after police raids
Remix News | May 5, 2026
The investigation into the early 2026 firebombing of Brandenburg Antisemitism Commissioner Andreas Büttner’s home is nearing a conclusion, but the results have stunned the public.
In a dramatic reversal of the initial narrative, the Brandenburg State Criminal Police Office has executed a series of raids across Lower Saxony, Baden-Württemberg, and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania targeting the commissioner’s own close associates.
While the case was initially treated as an Islamist or antisemitic hate crime, the German Public Prosecutor General’s Office now identifies two men from Büttner’s “own circle,” which belongs to the left, as the primary suspects, reveals Tagesspiegel in a new exclusive report.
Initially believed to be a pro-Palestinian terror arson attack
On the night of Jan. 4, 2026, a shed on Büttner’s Templin estate was incinerated, and a red Hamas triangle – a mark of the Palestinian terrorist (sic) group – was found defaced on his front door. The attack, which caused approximately €20,000 euros in damage, triggered a massive increase in the commissioner’s personal security.
However, the “antisemitic or Islamist motive” is now being questioned following several key investigative breakthroughs.
The first has to do with DNA evidence. Forensic teams reportedly matched DNA from Lukas S. to threatening letters sent to the Brandenburg State Parliament, which branded Büttner a “Zionist pig” and a “traitor,” and expressed a clear intent to “kill” him.
One letter addressed to Büttner contained a mysterious “gray substance” and “granular substance,” which prompted an emergency response by police specialists at the parliament’s mailroom.
The second point of evidence has to do with the specific arson attack. Police discovered by chance a smoldering fire 20 kilometers from the crime scene containing gloves and barbecue lighter fluid. When investigators connected them to the arson, the items were traced back to a purchase at a hardware store in Lower Saxony that involved a debit card belonging to one of the suspects, the same one who is a business partner of Büttner.
Suspects are two Germans with deep ties to left-wing causes and combating antisemitism
The suspects, identified as Daniel R. and Lucas S., are not strangers to the commissioner; they are his “friends and business partners,” according to Tagesspiegel.
All three men are linked through a “management consulting” firm established in 2023, where Büttner is the majority shareholder and Daniel R. serves as the managing director. Furthermore, the suspects are active in a non-profit initiative for “political education and commemorative work” for which Büttner is the “sole patron.”
Despite the violent nature of the charges — which include arson and the use of “symbols associated with unconstitutional and terrorist organizations” — the trio appeared to maintain an amicable relationship after the attack.
Reports indicate they met in Berlin and Potsdam and even attended a performance of “The Flying Dutchman” at the Leipzig Opera in February.
When confronted with the news that his business partners were under investigation, Andreas Büttner maintained his distance, stating: “I had—and still have—absolutely no knowledge of this matter. Naturally not.”
He also noted he is cooperating with police, noting, “The police are investigating. I cannot say anything about this. I have confidence in the police investigation.”
The revelation complicates the wave of international support Büttner received following the fire.
At the time, Israel’s Ambassador Ron Prosor condemned the act as terrorism, stating that the Hamas triangle represented attacks on those with different views “in Gaza just as in Brandenburg.”
Federal Antisemitism Commissioner Felix Klein similarly labeled the event a “direct attack on our democracy.”
The German Public Prosecutor continues to investigate, with more details of why the attack occurred potentially coming to light in the future.
Meanwhile, commentators are addressing the remarkable details of the case and the suspects allegedly behind the firebombing.
Jan Karon, a journalist and author, wrote on X:
“Daniel R. and Lucas S., who are suspected of carrying out the arson attack (complete with Hamas triangles) on the antisemitism commissioner Andreas Büttner, practically embody the epitome of the progressive NGO complex.
The two, as the text states citing a source, had “made a business model out of mediating funding to people and organizations.” The article reconstructs their activities: nationwide courses and projects, €98,000 in funding from the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, the “German Engagement Award,” the fight against racism, and an explanatory channel on YouTube.
The two men posed in 2019 at the Chancellery next to Merkel—as young people “committed to democracy.”
This was followed by invitations to the EU Parliament, the Bundestag, and the Federal Press Ball. In 2020, they founded a foundation for educational work, from which a company later emerged that sought to commemorate the child victims of National Socialism (!) —and to this end collected donations to produce 5,000 pairs of fiberglass shoes (!!).
R. and S. also planned to rebuild the destroyed synagogue in Prenzlau with donations.
They are said to have pressed the antisemitism commissioner Büttner to “fly to Israel” with Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Büttner founded a company with them that is dedicated to that (federally funded) fight.
One is left speechless.
Previous hate hoaxes
If proven that this was indeed a staged hate attack, it would not be the first time that a hate hoax occurred in recent years.
In 2022, famed German-Israeli musician Gil Ofarim was accused of lying about an alleged antisemitic incident inside the Leipzig Hotel Westin after video footage and other evidence led police to doubt his claims, but not before the case sparked national headlines in Germany.
According to the singer Ofarim, who was born in Israel but found success as a musician in Germany, an employee at the check-in counter asked him to remove his Star of David chain from sight if he wanted to be checked in. Ofarim made the claim in an emotional Instagram video entitled “Antisemitism in Germany 2021,” where he ended his story by holding up the necklace chain in question. The viral video sparked protests involving thousands of people in front of the hotel, and the claims were spread widely by antisemitism watchdogs.
After Ofarim’s claims, video footage obtained by Bild newspaper is calling into question Ofarim’s version of events, leading the case to fall apart and for the hotel employee to be completely cleared of wrongdoing after an independent investigation.
In a commentary piece on Germany’s Junge Freiheit, the Ofarim case was presented as a clear example of previous hate hoaxes that have plagued Germany in the past. Like many other cases later identified as false or misleading, the Ofarim antisemitism claim was widely reported in world media outlets, including the Guardian and CNN.
Junge Freiheit pointed to the Sebnitz case, where a mob of skinheads supposedly drowned a toddler, only for it to turn into one of the biggest debacles in Germany’s modern history. There is also the case of Mittweide, where nobody had actually carved a swastika on her forehead (police later proved she did it herself). In Müglen, foreigners were not hunted on the streets, and in Chemnitz, the same accusation that sparked a nationwide outcry has never been proven. And in Dresden, an Eritrean asylum seeker was not murdered by right-wing extremists from the Pegida movement, but killed by a fellow Eritrean.
Texas has an Israel Investment Problem
By Adam Dick | Peace and Prosperity Blog | May 6, 2026
Investing is generally understood to be about seeking to preserve and grow wealth. But the Texas government seems to be making an exception to that understanding in buying the bonds of the Israel government and enabling other government entities in Texas to do so as well.
In February, Acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock touted in a press release that the state government was doubling its holdings of Israel bonds “from approximately $140 million to $280 million, marking the largest one-time investment in Israel bonds in Texas history and elevating the state from the sixth-largest to the second-largest U.S. state investor in these securities.”
That is a significant investment action. How did Hancock describe that the action was taken to best preserve and grow the wealth held by state government? He did not. Instead, Hancock provided a political justification in the press release:
‘Texas proudly stands with Israel,’ Hancock said. ‘This expanded investment reinforces our long-standing relationship and shared commitment to faith, freedom and economic opportunity. Texas and Israel have built a partnership that stretches beyond finance, and this step reflects both our solidarity and our belief in what we can accomplish together.’
This sort of reasoning does not bode well of the finances of the state. Liking a government is not a valid investment reason for buying its bonds. Is Hancock next going to “invest” in truckloads of puppies because he thinks they are adorable?
The state government, in addition to piling up Israel bonds, has also decreed that government entities in Texas can buy Israel government bonds but are forbidden from buying bonds of any other foreign government. This special permission to purchase Israel government bonds is provided in chapter 2256 of the Texas Government Code (the Public Funds Investment Act). There the listed “authorized investments” for government entities in Texas include “bonds issued, assumed, or guaranteed by the State of Israel” but no similar investments related to any other foreign government.
Is there any reason to think that the bonds of Israel are uniquely good investments when compared to the bonds of every other foreign nation? It seems the answer to that question is “no.” Consider that in May of 2025 Daniel Liberto reported at Investopedia that then “10 countries had perfect credit ratings from all three rating companies” — Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service, and S&P Global Ratings. Israel did not make the list. Yet, Israel’s bonds are determined by the Texas government to be an acceptable investment while these other bond options that have been rated safer are verboten.
It looks like the Texas government, through its preferred treatment of Israel bonds, is ensuring that politics triumphs over sound investing.
British journalist faces ‘anti-terror probe’ after Iran visit, reporting on US-Israeli crimes

Press TV – May 6, 2026
In a politically motivated move, a UK-based independent journalist and activist faces an “anti-terror probe” after her recent visit to Iran, where she reported on post-war developments, including massive rallies against the US-Israeli war coalition.
Observers say the move punishes legitimate political expression as the UK government seeks to silence dissenting voices critical of the unprovoked war against the Islamic Republic.
Bushra Shaikh, a British media personality who has been vocal about the US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran as well as the ongoing genocide in Gaza, has been referred to the Metropolitan Police’s Counter-Terrorism Command over a speech she delivered at a rally in Iran during her recent visit.
The referral, which comes just days after her return from the Islamic Republic, has raised serious concerns about the UK government weaponizing “anti-terror” laws to target individuals whose political views diverge from its stance on West Asia developments.
In a video shared online, Shaikh was seen addressing a rally in Iran, in which she expressed her solidarity with the people of Iran and condemned the aggression against them.
During the rally, flags of regional resistance movements, including Hezbollah, were seen.
Within hours of the post going live, a formal complaint was lodged with Scotland Yard, as reported by British media, alleging that Shaikh may have breached the Terrorism Act, which criminalizes “inviting support” for a banned group.
The report further claimed a potential violation of the National Security Act’s new Foreign Influence Registration Scheme (FIRS), which requires individuals acting under the direction of a foreign power to register their political activities.
“Any allegations relating to possible terrorism or national security-related offences will be passed to officers within Counter Terrorism Policing, who will assess the details and take any further action as appropriate,” the Met Police was quoted as saying.
During her visit to Iran, as part of a foreign media delegation invited by the Sobh Media Center, Shaikh visited many cities and interacted with victims of the recent war.
She also interviewed government officials, including foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei and chairman of the parliament’s foreign policy and internal security commission Ebrahim Azizi, which she also shared on her social media platforms.
In the recent past, many British journalists, activists and academics have faced draconian charges in their country after visiting Iran to attend conferences or media festivals, including the Sobh International Media Festival, organized by the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) World Service.
Trump’s ’Project Freedom’ just got blown out of the water. What now?
By Martin Jay | Strategic Culture Foundation | May 6, 2026
The escalation trap seems to be pulling Donald Trump deeper and deeper into the quicksand of the Iran war. Following Iran’s strike on a UAE oil terminal, Trump has had to back down and “pause” his plan to create a military escort that would chaperone oil tankers through the Straits of Hormuz. Project Freedom, according to the president’s own social media posts, has been suspended before it even started as Trump struggles to find more smoke-and-mirror tactics to fool a gullible American public that the war in Iran has been “won”. Eight times, in fact.
But it’s easy to see how Trump is getting pulled about by various players and may still be clinging onto the idea of some sort of military manoeuvre in the Persian Gulf. I have previously speculated that I don’t believe he will launch a second strike, but an attempt at landing on an island and installing US soldiers there must still be something he is considering. And since the Iranian strike on the UAE, something extraordinary has happened that will now lodge this idea further in his head—that such a plan might work. The UAE just went out on a limb and beefed up its relations to a whole new level with Israel, even beyond the special status it had as being the Zionist entity’s only solid partner in the entire GCC. After the strike on its oil terminal, news flooded social media that the UAE was planning a retaliatory strike and has teamed up militarily with Israel. This is significant on many levels, as not only does it create a clear dividing line between itself and other GCC countries that would like to make a statement to Iran that they are not its enemy, but it also positions the UAE as a major target for Tehran, and so the move is incredibly risky, if not foolish for its elite in Abu Dhabi. It is almost as though they are prepared to destroy everything the country has accomplished in fifty years as an economic miracle of the entire region just to make the point that signing the Abraham Accords was, in fact, not an egregious error on their part. Israel or nothing.
And so the strategy of Israel is shifting from convincing America that it needs to take huge collateral losses, both militarily and in terms of human life, to now convincing the UAE. But do Abu Dhabi’s rulers have the guts to take on Iran head-on? Can they take the losses of life and the destruction of their infrastructure that is inevitable? One can only imagine that the Israelis have turned on the charm and sweet-talked its rulers into the fantasy zone that Trump was dragged into. Perhaps Trump himself has played a minor but important role as well, as it cannot be a coincidence that just a week earlier he commented to journalists that the US should consider compensating the UAE for the damage caused by Iran’s strikes. Of course all this is linked, and we shouldn’t consider it a coincidence that the UAE has just made the decision on a capricious whim.
Trump’s idea of taking an island in the Persian Gulf and the UAE now making a military alliance with Israel are all part of the same doomed blueprint, which must be bringing new levels of joy to Tehran, whose leaders can hardly believe their luck. They will be thinking, “We’ll destroy Dubai and Abu Dhabi and then watch their rulers beg for mercy, while the whole GCC gives in to whatever demands we have, including rule over the straits.”
Trump’s idea of taking an island is probably his most stupid yet and may well be the brainchild of Israel’s military planners. It’s dumb on so many levels, but it’s easy to see how it is appealing in that it is feasible to install US troops on one of the many islands the UAE claims Iran took from them. Iran would probably allow the operation to go ahead anyway, as allowing the US to install itself on an island would be the perfect way to hold them hostage. Even from a logistical point of view the idea is doomed. It is one thing to put US troops on an island but quite another to supply them. The Iranians could simply block US ships and planes supplying them once they are there and have set up their base. Troops need food, water, and equipment just to function. The military planners who came up with the idea are probably thinking that such an island could be a base to launch operations from, but have not figured that Iran will be one step ahead and will not allow the second part of this plan to bear fruit. And so the island idea will blow up in the faces of those who signed it off, as the soldiers will effectively be hostages to be paraded on social media platforms every day while it is Iran, out of an act of decency, who will be feeding them—unless Tehran is so enraged by a strike on its energy infrastructure that it decides to kill them all to send a message to the US and Israel. It’s all madness. But the problem with such madness having got to this stage is that the only solution seems to be more madness. Trump, Israel, and now the UAE are all fighting fire with fire, and ironically it is the UAE—the only country in the region that had, at one point, quite cordial relations with Iran—that could have been the diplomatic conduit to finding a peaceful solution. The UAE, which has a huge Iranian community in Dubai, could have been the one country to have stopped the madness and to have brokered peace given its unique relations with both Israel and Iran, and yet it chose not to. This is the escalation trap, as Professor Bob Pape calls it, and it just took its latest victim in Abu Dhabi.

